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The document presents financial projections for a company from 2005 to 2011. It assumes an annual sales growth rate of 15% and calculates projections for sales, net income, capital expenditures, and more. It then analyzes the impact on financial metrics like debt, equity, and debt ratios under different dividend payout scenarios of 0%, 20%, 40%, and 50%. The 40% payout scenario is shown to increase total debt from an initial $80.3 to $180.6 by 2011 while maintaining a debt to equity ratio below 40% throughout the projection period.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
196 views7 pages

Gainesboro Solution

The document presents financial projections for a company from 2005 to 2011. It assumes an annual sales growth rate of 15% and calculates projections for sales, net income, capital expenditures, and more. It then analyzes the impact on financial metrics like debt, equity, and debt ratios under different dividend payout scenarios of 0%, 20%, 40%, and 50%. The 40% payout scenario is shown to increase total debt from an initial $80.3 to $180.6 by 2011 while maintaining a debt to equity ratio below 40% throughout the projection period.

Uploaded by

akash
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Exhibit 8

Assumptions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1. Sales Growth rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
2. Net income as % of sales 2.1% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 8.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%

Projections Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11

Sales 870.0 1000.5 1150.6 1323.2 1521.6 1749.9 2012.4 9628.1

Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0 538.9
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5 790.9

Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9

Excess cash/(borrowing needs) -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6 121.0
Dividend 7.3 16.0 23.0 29.1 36.5 39.2 64.4 215.5

After dividend excesscash /


(borrowing needs) -29.8 -23.3 -18.8 -17.6 -7.2 -12.0 14.2 -94.6
Targeted Dividend Payout Impact analysids
0% 20% 40% 50%
Net profit 537.8 537.8 537.8 537.8
Less: dividend 0.0 107.6 215.1 268.9
Earnings retained 537.8 430.2 322.7 268.9
New debt (stock buyback) -120.0 -12.4 95.1 148.9
Depreiation 252.0 252.0 252.0 252.0
Increase in assets 669.8 669.8 669.8 669.8

Initial debt (2011) 80.3 80.3 80.3 80.3


Change in debt 0.0 0.0 95.1 148.9
Ending debt (2011) 80.3 80.3 175.4 229.2

Initial equity (2004) 282.5 282.5 282.5 282.5


Earnings retained 537.8 430.2 322.7 268.9
Stock buyback -120.0 -12.4 0.0 0.0
Ending equity (2007) 700.3 700.3 605.2 551.4

Total capital 780.6 780.6 780.6 780.6

Debt/total capital 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3


Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4

Debt capacity 280.1 280.1 242.1 220.6 0.4=max debt/equity)


Debt capacity used 80.3 80.3 175.4 229.2
Unused debt capacity 199.8 199.8 66.7 -8.6
Ratio of debt capacity
used for incremental
payments to shareholders 1.4 1.4
20% Payout

Common Assumptions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1. Sales Growth rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
2. Net income as % of sales 2.1% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 8.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
4. Beining debt 80.3
5. Beginning equity 282.5
6. Shares outstanding 18.6
7. Price earnings ratio 24.6
Current market price 422.15
Debt equity maximum 40% 40%
Borrowing rate 6%
Tax rate 35%

Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11
Sales 870 1001 1151 1323 1522 1750 2012

Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0 538.9
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total sources 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5 790.9

Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total uses 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9

Excess cash/ (borrowings) -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6 121.0
Dividends 3.7 8.0 11.5 14.6 18.3 19.6 32.2 107.8
Net -26.2 -15.3 -7.3 -3.1 11.0 7.6 46.4 13.2
Cumulative source/(need) -26.2 -41.5 -48.7 -51.8 -40.8 -33.2 13.2
In cost new debt 1.6 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.0 -0.8
Net source/(need) -27.8 -44.0 -51.7 -54.9 -43.2 -35.2 14.0
Debt (excess) 108.1 124.3 132.0 135.2 123.5 115.5 66.3
Equity 297.1 329.1 375.2 433.4 506.4 584.8 713.6
Debt/equity ratio 36.4% 37.8% 35.2% 31.2% 24.4% 19.7% 9.3%
Unused debt capacity 10.8 7.4 18.1 38.1 79.0 118.4 219.1

Return on avg equity 6.3% 12.8% 16.3% 18.0% 19.4% 18.0% 24.8%
EPS 0.98 2.15 3.09 3.91 4.91 5.27 8.66
Implied stock price 24.2 52.9 76.1 96.2 120.7 129.6 212.9
Dividends per share 0.20 0.43 0.62 0.78 0.98 1.05 1.73

Return to investor
Stock value (terminal) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 212.92
Dividends received 0.20 0.43 0.62 0.78 0.98 1.05 1.73
Total cap apprec & divs -22.15 0.20 0.43 0.62 0.78 0.98 1.05 214.65
NPV (12%) 77.49
Return (IRR) 39%
40% Payout

Common Assumptions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1. Sales Growth rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
2. Net income as % of sales 2.1% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 8.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
4. Beining debt 80.3
5. Beginning equity 282.5
6. Shares outstanding 18.6
7. Price earnings ratio 24.6
Current market price 422.15
Debt equity maximum 40% 40%
Borrowing rate 6%
Tax rate 35%

Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11
Sales 870 1001 1151 1323 1522 1750 2012

Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0 538.9
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total sources 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5 790.9

Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total uses 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9

Excess cash/ (borrowings) -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6 121.0
Dividends 7.3 16.0 23.0 29.1 36.5 39.2 64.4 215.5
Net -29.8 -23.3 -18.8 -17.6 -7.2 -12.0 14.2 -94.6
Cumulative source/(need) -29.8 -53.1 -71.9 -89.5 -96.8 -108.8 -94.6
In cost new debt 1.8 3.2 4.3 5.4 5.8 6.5 5.7
Net source/(need) -31.6 -56.3 -76.2 -94.9 -102.6 -115.3 -100.3
Debt (excess) 111.9 136.6 156.5 175.2 182.9 195.6 180.6
Equity 293.5 317.5 352.0 395.7 450.4 509.2 605.8
Debt/equity ratio 38.1% 43.0% 44.5% 44.3% 40.6% 38.4% 29.8%
Unused debt capacity 5.5 -9.6 -15.7 -17.0 -2.7 8.1 61.8

Return on avg equity 6.3% 13.1% 17.2% 19.5% 21.6% 20.4% 28.9%
EPS 0.98 2.15 3.09 3.91 4.91 5.27 8.66
Implied stock price 24.2 52.9 76.1 96.2 120.7 129.6 212.9
Dividends per share 0.39 0.86 1.24 1.57 1.96 2.11 3.46

Return to investor
Stock value (terminal) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 212.92
Dividends received 0.39 0.86 1.24 1.57 1.96 2.11 3.46
Total cap apprec & divs -22.15 0.39 0.86 1.24 1.57 1.96 2.11 216.38
NPV (12%) 80.82
Return (IRR) 41%
Adjusted payouts

Common Assumptions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1. Sales Growth rate 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
2. Net income as % of sales 1.1% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.6% 7.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 28.9% 21.3% 45.4%
4. Beining debt 80.3
5. Beginning equity 282.5
6. Shares outstanding 18.6
7. Price earnings ratio 24.6
Current market price 422.15
Debt equity maximum 40% 40%
Borrowing rate 6%
Tax rate 35%

Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11
Sales 870 974 1091 1222 1369 1533 1717

Sources:
Net income 9.6 29.2 43.7 55.0 68.4 70.5 120.2 396.6
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total sources 32.1 54.7 73.7 89.5 108.9 117.0 172.7 648.6

Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total uses 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9

Excess cash/ (borrowings) -31.2 -18.1 -9.6 -6.3 6.4 -0.3 37.8 -21.3
Dividends 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 19.8 15.0 54.6 94.1
Net -33.3 -18.1 -9.6 -8.9 -13.3 -15.3 -16.8 -115.3
Cumulative source/(need) -33.3 -51.3 -61.0 -69.9 -83.3 -98.5 -115.3
In cost new debt 2.0 3.1 3.7 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.9
Net source/(need) -35.3 -54.4 -64.6 -74.1 -88.2 -104.5 -122.2
Debt (excess) 115.6 134.7 144.9 154.4 168.5 184.8 202.5
Equity 290.0 319.3 362.9 415.3 463.9 519.5 585.1
Debt/equity ratio 39.8% 42.2% 39.9% 37.2% 36.3% 35.6% 34.6%
Unused debt capacity 0.4 -7.0 0.2 11.7 17.0 23.0 31.5

Return on avg equity 3.3% 9.6% 12.8% 14.1% 15.6% 14.3% 21.8%
EPS 0.51 1.57 2.35 2.96 3.68 3.79 6.46
Implied stock price 12.7 38.7 57.7 72.7 90.5 93.3 159.0
Dividends per share 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.06 0.81 2.93

Return to investor
Stock value (terminal) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 158.98
Dividends received 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.06 0.81 2.93
Total cap apprec & divs -22.15 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.06 0.81 161.92
NPV (12%) 52.29
Return (IRR) 33%
Assumtions
WACC 10%
Terminal growth rate 3.50%
DCF
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5
Total 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5

Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3
Total 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9

Free cash flow -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6
Term value 1251
Total -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 1330.0

Discounted -22.53 -6.62 3.49 8.62 20.01 16.88 750.73

EV 770.60
Less: debt 106.5
Eq value 664.10
O/S shares 18.6
Per share 35.70
Current share price 22.15
Premium 61%
Debt rations

Dividend payout 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


0% 34.6% 33.2% 27.6% 21.0% 12.2% 6.0% -5.2%
10% 35.5% 35.6% 31.7% 26.5% 18.7% 13.1% 2.2%
20% 36.4% 38.2% 36.1% 32.5% 26.0% 21.4% 10.9%
30% 37.2% 40.8% 40.8% 39.2% 34.2% 30.9% 21.2%
40% 38.1% 43.5% 45.8% 46.5% 43.6% 42.0% 33.7%
Max D/E ration 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%

D/E ratios by dividend payouts


50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-10.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Max D/E ration

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