Gainesboro Solution
Gainesboro Solution
1. Sales Growth rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
2. Net income as % of sales 2.1% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 8.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Projections Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11
Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0 538.9
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5 790.9
Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9
Excess cash/(borrowing needs) -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6 121.0
Dividend 7.3 16.0 23.0 29.1 36.5 39.2 64.4 215.5
1. Sales Growth rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
2. Net income as % of sales 2.1% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 8.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
4. Beining debt 80.3
5. Beginning equity 282.5
6. Shares outstanding 18.6
7. Price earnings ratio 24.6
Current market price 422.15
Debt equity maximum 40% 40%
Borrowing rate 6%
Tax rate 35%
Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11
Sales 870 1001 1151 1323 1522 1750 2012
Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0 538.9
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total sources 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5 790.9
Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total uses 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9
Excess cash/ (borrowings) -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6 121.0
Dividends 3.7 8.0 11.5 14.6 18.3 19.6 32.2 107.8
Net -26.2 -15.3 -7.3 -3.1 11.0 7.6 46.4 13.2
Cumulative source/(need) -26.2 -41.5 -48.7 -51.8 -40.8 -33.2 13.2
In cost new debt 1.6 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.0 -0.8
Net source/(need) -27.8 -44.0 -51.7 -54.9 -43.2 -35.2 14.0
Debt (excess) 108.1 124.3 132.0 135.2 123.5 115.5 66.3
Equity 297.1 329.1 375.2 433.4 506.4 584.8 713.6
Debt/equity ratio 36.4% 37.8% 35.2% 31.2% 24.4% 19.7% 9.3%
Unused debt capacity 10.8 7.4 18.1 38.1 79.0 118.4 219.1
Return on avg equity 6.3% 12.8% 16.3% 18.0% 19.4% 18.0% 24.8%
EPS 0.98 2.15 3.09 3.91 4.91 5.27 8.66
Implied stock price 24.2 52.9 76.1 96.2 120.7 129.6 212.9
Dividends per share 0.20 0.43 0.62 0.78 0.98 1.05 1.73
Return to investor
Stock value (terminal) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 212.92
Dividends received 0.20 0.43 0.62 0.78 0.98 1.05 1.73
Total cap apprec & divs -22.15 0.20 0.43 0.62 0.78 0.98 1.05 214.65
NPV (12%) 77.49
Return (IRR) 39%
40% Payout
1. Sales Growth rate 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
2. Net income as % of sales 2.1% 4.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.6% 8.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
4. Beining debt 80.3
5. Beginning equity 282.5
6. Shares outstanding 18.6
7. Price earnings ratio 24.6
Current market price 422.15
Debt equity maximum 40% 40%
Borrowing rate 6%
Tax rate 35%
Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11
Sales 870 1001 1151 1323 1522 1750 2012
Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0 538.9
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total sources 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5 790.9
Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total uses 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9
Excess cash/ (borrowings) -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6 121.0
Dividends 7.3 16.0 23.0 29.1 36.5 39.2 64.4 215.5
Net -29.8 -23.3 -18.8 -17.6 -7.2 -12.0 14.2 -94.6
Cumulative source/(need) -29.8 -53.1 -71.9 -89.5 -96.8 -108.8 -94.6
In cost new debt 1.8 3.2 4.3 5.4 5.8 6.5 5.7
Net source/(need) -31.6 -56.3 -76.2 -94.9 -102.6 -115.3 -100.3
Debt (excess) 111.9 136.6 156.5 175.2 182.9 195.6 180.6
Equity 293.5 317.5 352.0 395.7 450.4 509.2 605.8
Debt/equity ratio 38.1% 43.0% 44.5% 44.3% 40.6% 38.4% 29.8%
Unused debt capacity 5.5 -9.6 -15.7 -17.0 -2.7 8.1 61.8
Return on avg equity 6.3% 13.1% 17.2% 19.5% 21.6% 20.4% 28.9%
EPS 0.98 2.15 3.09 3.91 4.91 5.27 8.66
Implied stock price 24.2 52.9 76.1 96.2 120.7 129.6 212.9
Dividends per share 0.39 0.86 1.24 1.57 1.96 2.11 3.46
Return to investor
Stock value (terminal) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 212.92
Dividends received 0.39 0.86 1.24 1.57 1.96 2.11 3.46
Total cap apprec & divs -22.15 0.39 0.86 1.24 1.57 1.96 2.11 216.38
NPV (12%) 80.82
Return (IRR) 41%
Adjusted payouts
1. Sales Growth rate 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
2. Net income as % of sales 1.1% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.6% 7.0%
3. Dividend -Payout ration 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 28.9% 21.3% 45.4%
4. Beining debt 80.3
5. Beginning equity 282.5
6. Shares outstanding 18.6
7. Price earnings ratio 24.6
Current market price 422.15
Debt equity maximum 40% 40%
Borrowing rate 6%
Tax rate 35%
Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005-11
Sales 870 974 1091 1222 1369 1533 1717
Sources:
Net income 9.6 29.2 43.7 55.0 68.4 70.5 120.2 396.6
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5 252.0
Total sources 32.1 54.7 73.7 89.5 108.9 117.0 172.7 648.6
Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6 455.8
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3 214.1
Total uses 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9 669.9
Excess cash/ (borrowings) -31.2 -18.1 -9.6 -6.3 6.4 -0.3 37.8 -21.3
Dividends 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 19.8 15.0 54.6 94.1
Net -33.3 -18.1 -9.6 -8.9 -13.3 -15.3 -16.8 -115.3
Cumulative source/(need) -33.3 -51.3 -61.0 -69.9 -83.3 -98.5 -115.3
In cost new debt 2.0 3.1 3.7 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.9
Net source/(need) -35.3 -54.4 -64.6 -74.1 -88.2 -104.5 -122.2
Debt (excess) 115.6 134.7 144.9 154.4 168.5 184.8 202.5
Equity 290.0 319.3 362.9 415.3 463.9 519.5 585.1
Debt/equity ratio 39.8% 42.2% 39.9% 37.2% 36.3% 35.6% 34.6%
Unused debt capacity 0.4 -7.0 0.2 11.7 17.0 23.0 31.5
Return on avg equity 3.3% 9.6% 12.8% 14.1% 15.6% 14.3% 21.8%
EPS 0.51 1.57 2.35 2.96 3.68 3.79 6.46
Implied stock price 12.7 38.7 57.7 72.7 90.5 93.3 159.0
Dividends per share 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.06 0.81 2.93
Return to investor
Stock value (terminal) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 158.98
Dividends received 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.06 0.81 2.93
Total cap apprec & divs -22.15 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.14 1.06 0.81 161.92
NPV (12%) 52.29
Return (IRR) 33%
Assumtions
WACC 10%
Terminal growth rate 3.50%
DCF
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources:
Net income 18.3 40.0 57.5 72.8 91.3 98.0 161.0
Depreciation 22.5 25.5 30 34.5 40.5 46.5 52.5
Total 40.8 65.5 87.5 107.3 131.8 144.5 213.5
Uses:
Capital expenditure 43.8 50.4 57.5 66.2 68.5 78.8 90.6
Change in working capital 19.5 22.4 25.8 29.6 34.0 38.5 44.3
Total 63.3 72.8 83.3 95.8 102.5 117.3 134.9
Free cash flow -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 78.6
Term value 1251
Total -22.5 -7.3 4.2 11.5 29.3 27.2 1330.0
EV 770.60
Less: debt 106.5
Eq value 664.10
O/S shares 18.6
Per share 35.70
Current share price 22.15
Premium 61%
Debt rations
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-10.0%