SALES ANALYSIS AT ELITE WINERY OF LAST SEVEN

YEARS AND SALES PREDICTION FOR THE UPCOMING YEAR

IN KARNATAKA
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Post Graduate Diploma
in Management (PGDM)
in
Agri-Business and Plantation Management (ABPM)

by

HUNASHIKATTI SHRINIVAS
(Roll No.19PGDM-ABPM58)

Under the Guidance of

Mr Vinod Guraddi
Managing Director
Elite Vintage Winery. Mudhol

Submitted To:
PGDM- ABPM , Program Office

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF PLANTATION MANAGEMENT, BANGALORE

(An Autonomous Organization Promoted by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry – Govt. of India)

Jnana Bharati Campus Malathalli Post, Bangalore 560 056

JANUARY 2020
 Indian Institute of Plantation Management,
Bangalore.

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the CTS report titled “Sales analysis at elite winery of last seven years and
sales prediction for the upcoming year in Karnataka” by Mr. submitted in partial fulfillment of
PGDM 2017-19 is an original work and no part has been submitted or published for the award of any
degree or diploma.

Comments by the Examiner :

Signature of the Examiner : Name of Faculty

Date :
 DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the Winter Internship report entitled “Sales analysis at elite winery of last
seven years and sales prediction for the upcoming year in Karnataka” submitted for the
partial fulfillment of the requirements of Post Graduate Diploma in Management (Agri-Business
and Plantation Management) of Indian Institute of Plantation Management (IIPM), Bangalore is
my original work and not submitted in partial or full for award of any other degree, diploma,
fellowship or similar titles.

Date : HUNASHIKATTI SHRINIVAS

Place : 19PGDM-ABPM58
 Table of Content
INTRODUCTION:............................................................................................................................................5
Introduction to the project..........................................................................................................................5
Research question......................................................................................................................................6
Objectives:.................................................................................................................................................6
Wine Industry in India...................................................................................................................................6
About the company.......................................................................................................................................8
Vision........................................................................................................................................................8
TOP BRANDS OF ELITE VINTAGE WINERY:.....................................................................................................9
COMPANY PERPORMANCE OVER LAST SEVEN YEARS.................................................................................11
Graphical Representation of Sales...........................................................................................................11
Methodology...............................................................................................................................................14
The forecasting process;........................................................................................................................14
Data Analysis and Interpretation.................................................................................................................15
Simple average technique:.......................................................................................................................15
Weighted Moving Average:.....................................................................................................................16
Trend Analysis:.......................................................................................................................................17
Conclusion...................................................................................................................................................18
References...................................................................................................................................................18
 INTRODUCTION:

Introduction to the project

The project was carried out basically to understand the sales of company’s top 5 brands over
last…. Years. The main aim of the project is to forecast the sales for upcoming year by using
appropriate forecasting techniques viz,
 Simple average
 Moving average
 Weighted moving average
 Regression analysis
 Exponential smoothing
 Trend line Analysis

Forecasting activity should help managers to make better decisions in the process of planning the
business strategy.
The purpose of planning process is to allocate company resources in a manner to achieve
anticipated sales.
A company can forecast sales either by forecasting market sales (called market forecasting) an
determining what share of this will accrue to the company or by forecasting the company’s sales
directly. In this paper we explain techniques for sales forecasting

The secondary data was collected from the concerned department of the company.

Research question: What would be the sale of the company in 2020 in Karnataka
Objectives:
 Theoretical framework of sales forecasting technique.
 To analyze the company’s sales and forecasting the upcoming years sales.
 To suggest appropriate measures based on the results obtained.
Wine Industry in India

Viticulture was believed to possess been introduced to India by Persian traders sometime within
the 4th millennium BC. Historians believe that these early plantings were used mostly for table
grapes or fruit juice instead of the assembly of an alcohol . During the Vedic period of the 2nd and
1st millennia, the Aryan tribes of the region were known for his or her indulgence in intoxicating
drink and it seems probable that wine was a current beverage. The sacred text of the Vedas
mentions a minimum of one alcoholic drink which will are wine related -sura which seems to
possess been a kind of rice wine that was fermented with honey.
It is not about the color of traditional Indian red wines, it's more of accelerating popularity of
white, sparkling, rose and other wines into the Indian market. The Indian consumers have stared
exploring other variants of wines from just red wines. The consumption of Wine in India is found
to be increasing with rise of awareness of wine as an honest drink for health. The wine market of
India observed growth with a CAGR of quite 25% in past five years.
Growing popularity of Vineyards as tourism places, higher disposable incomes and growth in
foreign tourists, promotion of wine as beneficial to health etc. are a number of the explanations for
such growth. Global travel and expose to other countries where drinking wine may be a a part of
the life-style also are helping to drive the sales of wine in India.
One of the main obstacles in growth of wine market is that the price of wine which is relatively
very high than other alcoholic beverages and India being a price sensitive country people
generally don't prefer consuming wine. Despite the amount of Indian wine makers is on the
increase , the consumption of imported wine is high in India..
The wines in Indian market are generally segmented as wine , wine , wine , blush wine and other
wines. Red wines are the foremost popular and mostly consumed wine having an outsized market
share. While white, rose and wine are emerging segments. With increasing variants and new
brands these segments are forecasted to grow higher compared to the wine segment and acquire a
better market share in future, which can reduce the dominance of wine within the Indian wine
market.
Since the first 2000’s, India has been hyped as a crucial emerging marketplace for wine. The
country has the optimum climate for grape cultivation and its main wine-producing states,
Maharashtra and Karnataka, are leading producers of world class high-quality grapes.
Now companies such as Sula and Grover, which are old brands, have picked up. Small boutique
wineries have come up — there is York in Maharashtra, Krsma which has just started in
Karnataka — and they are already exporting to New York. It is an agricultural industry and could
do with a lot of help from the government. Karnataka has taken a few steps to promote wine, but
these are not enough. A $5 bottle is three times the price by the time it reaches India,”
(What’s India drinking, an Indian express article, 2018)
About the company

Vision

Perfection isn't an inherent gift to wine. Each element ripens and evolves "From Grape to Glass"
with treasured experience and tremendous care to vibrant aromas, glorious textures and stylish
flavors. Winery aims to be the simplest vintage wine producer by adopting ancient voyages to
Vinland techniques using the foremost efficient engineering practices As many wineries believe –
“Good taste is a crucial ingredient” the utmost care has been taken to supply the simplest quality
wines. The winery is extremely well related to various experts worldwide from the start to encash
the planet class manufacturing and storage techniques for producing and preserving wines.
Elite Vintage Winery India Pvt. Ltd. is found in Mudhol within the Bagalkot District of Karnataka
in India. the corporate sources its grapes from its own plantations at Mudhol within the Krishna
Valley. The climatic condition of the place and therefore the dedicated efforts of the grape
growers end in the expansion of a spread of grapes that are perfect for the event of top quality
wines.

The state of the art winery is headed by Vinod Guraddi, the director of the corporate . the
corporate nurtures the grapes with extreme care. Its 180 acres of plantation produce grapes that
end in vintage wines with pulsating aromas, appealing flavours and splendid textures. The
experience and expertise of the corporate within the wine making sector end in the evolution
‘from grape to glass’ that's ideal for the Indian and therefore the international markets.
For some time the Mudhol Hound has been the foremost famous product of Mudhol, alittle town
in northern Karnataka. this might be close to change with the establishment there of Elite Vintage
Winery (EVW), which has support from private investors and venture capitalists.

The business was established in September 2008, and is led by Vinod Guraddi. As a farmer’s son
he understands the agricultural practises and constraints of the region, but features a savvy
business acumen developed partially through conducting business overseas. He’s not been too
proud to seem for assistance from Indian wine pioneers and seeking technical assistance from
Sula Wines would appear to possess been a very sensible move. the connection with Sula extends
to EVW producing some of their wine products purchasable with Sula branding. during this way
the Maharashtra-based Sula Vineyards is in a position to bypass the tariff imposed on wines
imported into Karnataka.

The Elite Vintage vineyards, which cover some 70 ha, are dedicated to Chenin Blanc, Sauvignon
Blanc, Cabernet and Shiraz.
The winery has been fitted out with equipment from Europe and features a total capacity of 0.75
million litres. Their first vintage was in 2009 and as of 2013 was available only in Karnataka.
There are plans to bring EVW wines to other states and for a replacement winery at Mudhol

TOP BRANDS OF ELITE VINTAGE WINERY:

MAGIC- Passion embracing the skies

Masterfully blended with Cbernet
Sauvignon and Shiraz to evolve full bodied
taste lingering red wine with blackberry
and dark fruit, mint- rich in fruity aroma
only to leave a long lasting taste on the
palate.

ELITE CLUB RED & WHITE – Royal

drink, Royal moments.

Thinned clusters of grapes are soaked

in mild sunshade to retain its fruits
juice trapped under the chapped and
crushed to the last drop. Its intense
colour and rich flavor of black currant
tingles around leaving the palate high
and dry
 ELITE VEGA (CARBONATED WHITE WINE)

This is a bright, crisp, refreshing, and fruity

summer white wine. Vega White is light
making this wine the perfect end to a hot
summer day. Made with the Chenin Blanc
grape, this wine tend to have high citrus
flavors, which is wonderful on hot summer
days. For the most refreshing results, be
sure to keep your Vega White chilled.

ELITE VEGA (CARBONATED RED WINE)

The best wine for warm-weather is

light tasting and crisply flavored Vega
Red. This wine will feel light on your
palate and has a cool finish. A super
fun carbonated red blend, this wine is
wonderful on hot summer days
COMPANY PERPORMANCE OVER LAST SEVEN YEARS

Elite
Elite Club Club Vega VEGA
Years Red White Red White MAJIC
Sales is 2013 491 158 0 956.5 measured in
number of 2014 400 283.5 0 635.5 3374 bottles
2015 325 180.5 131 1923.5 5953
2016 123 63.25 1195.25 545.75 27946.25
2017 160 42.25 1232.75 508.5 38239
Graphical 2018 157 50.25 2121.25 745 52897.5
2019 76 54 1516 60.75 55281

Representation of Sales

The following graphs depicts the sales of five brands of company over the period of seven yeas
i.e., from (2013 – 2019)

600 Elite Club Red

500

400

300

200

100

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Interpretation:
From the above graph we can understand that sale of this product decreased gradually till 2016
and due to increase in promotional activities there was increase of sales and was constant for two
years, unfortunately there was drop in the last year
 Elite Club White
283.5

180.5
158

63.25

50.25
42.25

54

Interpretation:
The sales was increased almost half in the initial two years, but later there was fall in sales by half
there was almost constant sales till last year but the volume is reduced by 1/3rd compared to
highest sales.

Vega Red
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Interpretation:
This brand was introduced in 2015 and has seen a drastic growth in following year and has topped
the sales in 2018 (2121 no’s) , unfortunately it fell down by 500 no’s in last year
 VEGA White
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Interpretation:
The brand was introduced in 2014 and has seen a significant increase in the 1st year, but also had
drastic reduction was witnessed in 2016 and constant sales henceforth.

MAJIC
60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Interpretation:
 The initial three years had as slight increase in sales but from 2016 due to the
increased promotional activities the sales had a significant growth till date.

Methodology

The forecasting process;

The forecasting process refers to a series of procedures wont to forecast. It begins when an
objective is determined. For example sales objectives are often (estimation of dollar sales, number
of sales people to rent , etc.).
Next step is determination of dependent ask what's being forecasting: sales or the amount of sales
people to rent next year) and independent variables. After this step we should always determine
forecast procedure and methods for analyzing data.
Data are then gathered and analyzed often assumptions must be made about the forecast. The
forecast is formed , finalized, and, estimate passes, evaluated.

It is important to know when we should use qualitative or quantitative forecasting techniques.

Quantitative forecasting: Managers apply quantitative forecasting techniques when environment is

predictable and if they have data from past period about sales. These techniques are good once we
want to predict existing products and technologies. They often used mathematics’ techniques for
forecasting.
Qualitative forecasting: techniques are used in the not predictable environment and when we don’t
have enough data. These techniques are usually used when managers forecast launching the new
line or new technologies.
(In this project we are using Quantitative forecasting as we have enough secondary sales data.)

Quantitative techniques
Quantitative techniques are sometimes termed objective or mathematical techniques as they rely
more upon mathematics as less upon judgment in their computation. These techniques are now
very popular as a result of sophisticated computer packages (MS Excel)
Simple average: Simple average is the average of a set of values calculated with each value being
assigned equal importance or weightage.
Moving average: It takes a mean of a specified number of past observations to form a forecast. As
new observations become available, they're utilized in the forecast and therefore the oldest
observations are dropped.
Weighted moving average: A Weighted Moving Average puts more weight on recent data and
less on past data. This is done by multiplying each bar's price by a weighting factor.
Regression analysis: statistically relates sales to one or more explanatory (independent) variables.
Explanatory variables could also be marketing decisions (price changes, for instance), competitive
information, economic data on the other variable which will be associated with sales.
Exponential smoothing: makes an exponentially smoothed weighted average of past sales, trend
and seasonality to derive the forecast.
Trend line Analysis: fits a line to sales data by minimizing the squared error between the road
and actual past sales values. The line is that projected into the future as the forecast.

Data Analysis and Interpretation

Simple average technique:

Elite Elite
Club Club VEGA
Years Red White MAJIC Vega Red White
2013 491 158 956.5   0
2014 400 283.5 3374 0 635.5
2015 325 180.5 5953 131 1923.5
27946.2
2016 122.5 63.25 5 1195.25 545.75
2017 159.7 42.25 38239 1232.75 508.5
2018 157.25 50.25 52897.5 2121.25 745
2019 76.25 54 55281 1516 60.75
2020 247 118 26378 1032 631

Interpretation:
Elite Club Red: The forecasted sales of this brand are thrice the sales of present year so the
company’s sales team as to maintain the strategies for promotion of the product.
Elite Club White: The forecasted sales for this brand is doubled the current sales even for this
brand the sales team has to maintain the strategies for sales of the product.
Majic: The forecasted sales have been reduced by almost half of the present year sales so the
company need to develop and adopt new strategies for the promotion of this product and also
company needs to reduce the production of sales by 30%.
Vega Red: The forecasted sales is slight lower than the present sales so the strategies need to
modified / improved to see an increase in sales
Vega White: The forecasted sales for this product is (10x) higher than the present sales so the
company need to manufacture this product at least near to the forecasted value.
Weighted Moving Average:

Elite
Elite Club Club Vega VEGA
Years Red White Red White MAJIC
2013 491 158   0 956.5
2014 400 283.5 0 635.5 3374
2015 325 180.5 131 1923.5 5953
27946.2
2016 123 63.25 1195.25 545.75 5
2017 160 42.25 1232.75 508.5 38239
2018 157 50.25 2121.25 745 52897.5
2019 76 54 1516 60.75 55281
1002.32
2020 70.295 30.475 5 218.075 30987.7

Interpretation:
Elite Club Red: The forecasted sales of this brand is slight less than the present year so the
company’s sales team as to maintain/improvise on the strategies for promotion of the product.
Elite Club White: The forecasted sales for this brand will fall by 40% the current sales so new
strategies for promotion need to be followed like tying up with premium restaurants and pubs.
Majic: The forecasted sales have been reduced by 40% of the present year sales so the company
need to develop and adopt new strategies for the promotion of this product and also company
needs to reduce the production of sales by 30%.
Vega Red: The forecasted sales is slight lower than the present sales so the strategies need to
modified / improved to see an increase in sales like providing free samples at restaurants,
designing the bottle more good looking, providing free wine glass to attract customers
Vega White: The forecasted sales for this product is (3x) higher than the present sales so the
company need to manufacture this product at least near to the forecasted value.

Trend Analysis:

MAJIC
956.5
3374
Interpretation: According to this technique the sales of the MAJIC product
5953
would 23% so the production team need to manufacture at least 66000 no’s of
bottle to meet the demand of the product
27946.25
38239
52897.5
55281
68421.96
(This technique can be used only for one of the brand because it is only one showing trend over
the past sales)

Chart Title
60000
2500

50000
2000

40000
1500

30000

1000
20000

500
10000

00
1
1 2
2 3
3 4
4 5
5 6
6 7
7 8
8

Elite Club White Elite Club Red MAJIC

VEGA White Vega Red

The forecasted sales according to Weighted Average Technique

Conclusion

Every organization always give prime importance to the sale activities because this what
they get returns for there business activity so the analyzing of past year sale helps to forecast the
future demand and necessary key areas of improvement and it helps organization to take decisions
in need based areas so in this project I came to know that the brand magic had shown continues
outstanding sales over the past 7 years the strategies taken for this sale promotions are seems good
and product acceptancy in market also better over the years apart from this other 4 brand are not
performing as per the expectations so company need to form a new strategies to improve sales.
References

Martinovic, J., & DamnJanovic, V. (2006). The sales forecasting techniques. Materials of

International scientific days" Competitivness in the EU–challenge for the v4 countries, 526-531.
http://www.brandedvilla.com/content/10-about-wines

http://www.indianwines.info/

India Wine Market Analysis & Forecasts: 2011-2018 to 2023 - Emerging Wines (White, Sparking
& Rose) are Forecast to Grow Higher than the Dominant Red Wine (DUBLIN), July 9, 2018
/PRNewswire/ --
Investing in India’s Emerging Wine Industry (Dezan Shira & Associates) 2015