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Question 1

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive has increased each of the last 10 years, from 63 to 198. A trend equation was developed to model this data: T = 24 + 15.345 t, where T is the trend value and t is the time period. This equation was used to predict that next year's number of new contributors will be 192.80.

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Chin Divinagracia Nineza
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430 views

Question 1

The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive has increased each of the last 10 years, from 63 to 198. A trend equation was developed to model this data: T = 24 + 15.345 t, where T is the trend value and t is the time period. This equation was used to predict that next year's number of new contributors will be 192.80.

Uploaded by

Chin Divinagracia Nineza
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last

ten years is 63, 58, 61, 72, 98, 103, 121, 147, 163, 198. Develop a trend equation for this
information and use it to predict next year's number of new contributors.

Answer:

T = 24 + 15.345 t
where T = trend value of the time series in period t

Time Period Actual Value Forecast Forecast Error


1 63 39.35 23.66
2 58 54.69 3.31
3 61 70.04 -9.03
4 72 85.38 -13.38
5 98 100.73 -2.73
6 103 116.07 -13.07
7 121 131.42 -10.42
8 147 146.76 0.24
9 163 162.11 0.89
10 198 177.45 20.55

MEAN SQUARE ERROR = 154.11


FORECAST FOR PERIOD 11 = 192.80

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