Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
6. INCOME STATEMENT
7. BALANCE SHEET
9. INTO TO VALUATION
10. CONCLUSION
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Introduction
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Economic analysis
Company analysis
Industry analysis
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WHAT IS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Of course, these are very involved questions, and there are literally
hundreds of others you might have about a company. It all really boils
down to one question: Is the company’s stock a good investment? Think
of fundamental analysis as a toolbox to help you answer this question.
Note: The term fundamental analysis is used most often in the context of
stocks, but you can perform fundamental analysis on any security, from
a bond to a derivative. As long as you look at the economic
fundamentals, you are doing fundamental analysis.
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Fundamentals: Quantitative and Qualitative
For example, let’s say that a company’s stock was trading at $20. After
doing extensive homework on the company, you determine that it really
is worth $25. In other words, you determine the intrinsic value of the firm
to be $25. This is clearly relevant because an investor wants to buy
stocks that are trading at prices significantly below their estimated
intrinsic value.
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There is no point in buying a stock based on intrinsic value if the price
never reflected that value. Nobody knows how long “the long run” really
is. It could be days or years.
Technical analysis is the other major form of security analysis. We’re not
going to get into too much detail on the subject.
Put simply, technical analysts base their investments (or, more precisely,
their trades) solely on the price and volume movements of securities.
Using charts and a number of other tools, they trade on momentum, not
caring about the fundamentals. While it is possible to use both
techniques in combination, one of the basic tenets of technical analysis
is that the market discounts everything. Accordingly, all news about a
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company already is priced into a stock, and therefore a stock’s price
movements give more insight than the underlying fundamental factors of
the business itself.
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Fundamental analysis seeks to determine the intrinsic value of a
company's stock. But since qualitative factors, by definition, represent
aspects of a company's business that are difficult or impossible to
quantify, incorporating that kind of information into a pricing evaluation
can be quite difficult. On the flip side, as we've demonstrated, you can't
ignore the less tangible characteristics of a company.
Business Model
Even before an investor looks at a company's financial statements or
does any research, one of the most important questions that should be
asked is: What exactly does the company do? This is referred to as a
company's business model – it's how a company makes money.
Sometimes business models are easy to understand. Take McDonalds,
for instance, which sells hamburgers, fries, soft drinks, salads and
whatever other new special they are promoting at the time. It's a simple
model, easy enough for anybody to understand.
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At the very least, you should understand the business model of any
company you invest in. The "Oracle of Omaha", Warren Buffett, rarely
invests in tech stocks because most of the time he doesn't understand
them. This is not to say the technology sector is bad, but it's not Buffett's
area of expertise; he doesn't feel comfortable investing in this area.
Similarly, unless you understand a company's business model, you don't
know what the drivers are for future growth, and you leave yourself
vulnerable to being blindsided like shareholders of Boston Chicken were.
Competitive Advantage
Another business consideration for investors is competitive advantage. A
company's long-term success is driven largely by its ability to maintain a
competitive advantage - and keep it. Powerful competitive advantages,
such as Coca Cola's brand name and Microsoft's domination of the
personal computer operating system, create a moat around a business
allowing it to keep competitors at bay and enjoy growth and profits.
When a company can achieve competitive advantage, its shareholders
can be well rewarded for decades.
Management
Just as an army needs a general to lead it to victory, a company relies
upon management to steer it towards financial success. Some believe
that management is the most important aspect for investing in a
company. It makes sense - even the best business model is doomed if
the leaders of the company fail to properly execute the plan.
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So how does an average investor go about evaluating the management
of a company?
Instead, here are a few ways for you to get a feel for management:
1. Conference Calls
The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
host quarterly conference calls. (Sometimes you'll get other executives
as well.) The first portion of the call is management basically reading off
the financial results. What is really interesting is the question-and-
answer portion of the call. This is when the line is open for analysts to
call in and ask management direct questions. Answers here can be
revealing about the company, but more importantly, listen for candor. Do
they avoid questions, like politicians, or do they provide forthright
answers?
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2. Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)
The Management Discussion and Analysis is found at the beginning of
the annual report (discussed in more detail later in this tutorial). In
theory, the MD&A is supposed to be frank commentary on the
management's outlook.
One tip is to compare what management said in past years with what
they are saying now. Is it the same material rehashed? Have strategies
actually been implemented?
4. Past Performance
Another good way to get a feel for management capability is to check
and see how executives have done at other companies in the past. You
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can normally find biographies of top executives on company web sites.
Identify the companies they worked at in the past and do a search on
those companies and their performance.
Corporate Governance
Corporate governance describes the policies in place within an
organization denoting the relationships and responsibilities between
management, directors and stakeholders. These policies are defined
and determined in the company charter and its bylaws, along with
corporate laws and regulations. The purpose of corporate governance
policies is to ensure that proper checks and balances are in place,
making it more difficult for anyone to conduct unethical and illegal
activities.
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and information transparency. With a little research and the right
questions in mind, investors can get a good idea about a company's
corporate governance.
Stakeholder Rights
This aspect of corporate governance examines the extent that a
company's policies are benefiting stakeholder interests, notably
shareholder interests. Ultimately, as owners of the company,
shareholders should have some access to the board of directors if they
have concerns or want something addressed. Therefore companies with
good governance give shareholders a certain amount of ownership
voting rights to call meetings to discuss pressing issues with the board.
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Structure of the Board of Directors
The board of directors is composed of representatives from the company
and representatives from outside of the company. The combination of
inside and outside directors attempts to provide an independent
assessment of management's performance, making sure that the
interests of shareholders are represented.
We've now gone over the business model, management and corporate
governance. These three areas are all important to consider when
analyzing any company. We will now move on to looking at qualitative
factors in the environment in which the company operates.
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QUALITATIVE FACTORS -INDUSTRY
Customers
Some companies serve only a handful of customers, while others serve
millions. In general, it's a red flag (a negative) if a business relies on a
small number of customers for a large portion of its sales because the
loss of each customer could dramatically affect revenues. For example,
think of a military supplier who has 100% of its sales with the U.S.
government. One change in government policy could potentially wipe out
all of its sales. For this reason, companies will always disclose in their
10-K if any one customer accounts for a majority of revenues.
Market Share
Understanding a company's present market share can tell volumes
about the company's business. The fact that a company possesses an
85% market share tells you that it is the largest player in its market by
far. Furthermore, this could also suggest that the company possesses
some sort of "economic moat," in other words, a competitive barrier
serving to protect its current and future earnings, along with its market
share. Market share is important because of economies of scale. When
the firm is bigger than the rest of its rivals, it is in a better position to
absorb the high fixed costs of a capital-intensive industry.
Industry Growth
One way of examining a company's growth potential is to first examine
whether the amount of customers in the overall market will grow. This is
crucial because without new customers, a company has to steal market
share in order to grow.
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In some markets, there is zero or negative growth, a factor demanding
careful consideration. For example, a manufacturing company dedicated
solely to creating audio compact cassettes might have been very
successful in the '70s, '80s and early '90s. However, that same company
would probably have a rough time now due to the advent of newer
technologies, such as CDs and MP3s. The current market for audio
compact cassettes is only a fraction of what it was during the peak of its
popularity.
Competition
Simply looking at the number of competitors goes a long way in
understanding the competitive landscape for a company. Industries that
have limited barriers to entry and a large number of competing firms
create a difficult operating environment for firms.
Regulation
Certain industries are heavily regulated due to the importance or severity
of the industry's products and/or services. As important as some of these
regulations are to the public, they can drastically affect the attractiveness
of a company for investment purposes.
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In industries where one or two companies represent the entire industry
for a region (such as utility companies), governments usually specify
how much profit each company can make. In these instances, while
there is the potential for sizable profits, they are limited due to regulation.
All in all, investors should always be on the lookout for regulations that
could potentially have a material impact upon a business' bottom line.
Investors should keep these regulatory costs in mind as they assess the
potential risks and rewards of investing.
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INTRO TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
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assets. Financing comes as a result of liabilities or equity. Liabilities
represent debt (which of course must be paid back), while equity
represents the total value of money that the owners have contributed to
the business - including retained earnings, which is the profit made in
previous years.
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The cash flow statement is important because it's very difficult for a
business to manipulate its cash situation. There is plenty that aggressive
accountants can do to manipulate earnings, but it's tough to fake cash in
the bank. For this reason some investors use the cash flow statement as
a more conservative measure of a company's performance.
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OTHER IMPORTANT SECTIONS FOUND IN FINANCIAL FILLINGS
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This is the purpose behind the auditor's report, which is sometimes
called the "report of independent accountants".
Paragraph 1
Recounts the responsibilities of the auditor and
directors in general and lists the areas of the
financial statements that were audited.
Paragraph 2
Lists how the generally accepted accounting
principles (GAAP) were applied, and what areas of
the company were assessed.
Paragraph 3
Provides the auditor's opinion on the financial
statements of the company being audited. This is
simply an opinion, not a guarantee of accuracy.
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While the auditor's report won't uncover any financial bombshells, audits
give credibility to the figures reported by management. You'll only see
unaudited financials for unlisted firms. While quarterly statements aren't
audited, you should be very wary of any annual financials that haven't
been given the accountants' stamp of approval.
The footnotes list important information that could not be included in the
actual ledgers. For example, they list relevant things like outstanding
leases, the maturity dates of outstanding debt and details on
compensation plans, such as stock options, etc.
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current conditions in order to hide poor performance.
The majority of investors and analysts read the balance sheet, income
statement and cash flow statement but, for whatever reason, the
footnotes are often ignored. What sets informed investors apart is
digging deeper and looking for information that others typically wouldn't.
No matter how boring it might be, read the fine print - it will make you a
better investor.
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INCOME STATEMENT
The income statement is basically the first financial statement you will
come across in an annual report or quarterly Securities And Exchange
Commission (SEC) filing.
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sales revenue. For instance, Starbucks Coffee has aggressive long-term
sales growth goals that include a distribution system of 20,000 stores
worldwide. Consistent sales growth has been a strong driver of
Starbucks’ profitability.
The best revenue are those that continue year in and year out.
Temporary increases, such as those that might result from a short-term
promotion, are less valuable and should garner a lower price-to-earnings
multiple for a company.
Next, costs involved in operating the business are SG&A. This category
includes marketing, salaries, utility bills, technology expenses and other
general costs associated with running a business. SG&A also includes
depreciation and amortization. Companies must include the cost of
replacing worn out assets. Remember, some corporate expenses, such
as research and development (R&D) at technology companies, are
crucial to future growth and should not be cut, even though doing so
may make for a better-looking earnings report. Finally, there are financial
costs, notably taxes and interest payments, which need to be
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considered.
Companies with high gross margins will have a lot of money left over to
spend on other business operations, such as R&D or marketing. So be
on the lookout for downward trends in the gross margin rate over time.
This is a telltale sign of future problems facing the bottom line. When
cost of goods sold rises rapidly, they are likely to lower gross profit
margins - unless, of course, the company can pass these costs onto
customers in the form of higher prices.
Operating profit is equal to revenues minus the cost of sales and SG&A.
This number represents the profit a company made from its actual
operations, and excludes certain expenses and revenues that may not
be related to its central operations. High operating margins can mean
the company has effective control of costs, or that sales are increasing
faster than operating costs. Operating profit also gives investors an
opportunity to do profit-margin comparisons between companies that do
not issue a separate disclosure of their cost of goods sold figures (which
are needed to do gross margin analysis). Operating profit measures how
much cash the business throws off, and some consider it a more reliable
measure of profitability since it is harder to manipulate with accounting
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tricks than net earnings.
Net income generally represents the company's profit after all expenses,
including financial expenses, have been paid. This number is often
called the "bottom line" and is generally the figure people refer to when
they use the word "profit" or "earnings".
When a company has a high profit margin, it usually means that it also
has one or more advantages over its competition. Companies with high
net profit margins have a bigger cushion to protect themselves during
the hard times. Companies with low profit margins can get wiped out in a
downturn. And companies with profit margins reflecting a competitive
advantage is able to improve their market share during the hard times -
leaving them even better positioned when things improve again.
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BALANCE SHEET
Assets
There are two main types of assets: current assets and non-current
assets. Current assets are likely to be used up or converted into cash
within one business cycle - usually treated as twelve months. Three very
important current asset items found on the balance sheet are: cash,
inventories and accounts receivables.
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Inventories are finished products that haven't yet sold. As an investor,
you want to know if a company has too much money tied up in its
inventory. Companies have limited funds available to invest in inventory.
To generate the cash to pay bills and return a profit, they must sell the
merchandise they have purchased from suppliers. Inventory turnover
measures how quickly the company is moving merchandise through the
warehouse to customers. If inventory grows faster than sales, it is almost
always a sign of deteriorating fundamentals.
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companies to grossly inflate this number, leaving investors with
questionable and hard-to-compare asset figures.
Liabilities
There are current liabilities and non-current liabilities. Current liabilities
are obligations the firm must pay within a year, such as payments owing
to suppliers. Non-current liabilities, meanwhile, represent what the
company owes in a year or more time. Typically, non-current liabilities
represent bank and bondholder debt.
Look at the quick ratio. Subtract inventory from current assets and then
divide by current liabilities. If the ratio is 1 or higher, it says that the
company has enough cash and liquid assets to cover its short-term debt
obligations.
Current Liabilities
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Equity
Equity represents what shareholders own, so it is often called
shareholder's equity. As described above, equity is equal to total assets
minus total liabilities.
The two important equity items are paid-in capital and retained earnings.
Paid-in capital is the amount of money shareholders paid for their shares
when the stock was first offered to the public. It basically represents how
much money the firm received when it sold its shares. In other words,
retained earnings are a tally of the money the company has chosen to
reinvest in the business rather than pay to shareholders. Investors
should look closely at how a company puts retained capital to use and
how a company generates a return on it.
Most of the information about debt can be found on the balance sheet -
but some assets and debt obligations are not disclosed there. For
starters, companies often possess hard-to-measure intangible assets.
Corporate intellectual property (items such as patents, trademarks,
copyrights and business methodologies, goodwill and brand recognition )
are all common assets in today's marketplace. But they are not listed on
company's balance sheets.
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CASH FLOW STATEMENTS
Indeed, one of the most important features you should look for in a
potential investment is the company's ability to produce cash. Just
because a company shows a profit on the income statement doesn't
mean it cannot get into trouble later because of insufficient cash flows. A
close examination of the cash flow statement can give investors a better
sense of how the company will fare.
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activities. If net income is much higher than cash flow, the company may
be speeding or slowing its booking of income or costs.
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hurting the existing operations. The most common method of calculating
free cash flow is:
Ideally, investors would like to see that the company can pay for the
investing figure out of operations without having to rely on outside
financing to do so. A company's ability to pay for its own operations and
growth signals to investors that it has very strong fundamentals.
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INTO TO VALUATION
While the concept behind discounted cash flow analysis is simple, its
practical application can be a different matter. The premise of the
discounted cash flow method is that the current value of a company is
simply the present value of its future cash flows that are attributable to
shareholders. Its calculation is as follows:
There are several different techniques within the discounted cash flow
realm of valuation, essentially differing on what type of cash flow is used
in the analysis. The dividend discount model focuses on the dividends
the company pays to shareholders, while the cash flow model looks at
the cash that can be paid to shareholders after all expenses,
reinvestments and debt repayments have been made. But conceptually
they are the same, as it is the present value of these streams that are
taken into consideration.
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As we mentioned before, the difficulty lies in the implementation of the
model as there are a considerable amount of estimates and assumptions
that go into the model. As you can imagine, forecasting the revenue and
expenses for a firm five or 10 years into the future can be considerably
difficult.
Ratio Valuation
Financial ratios are mathematical calculations using figures mainly from
the financial statements, and they are used to gain an idea of a
company's valuation and financial performance. Some of the most well-
known valuation ratios are price-to-earnings and price-to-book. Each
valuation ratio uses different measures in its calculations. For example,
price-to-book compares the price per share to the company's book
value.
The calculations produced by the valuation ratios are used to gain some
understanding of the company's value. The ratios are compared on an
absolute basis, in which there are threshold values. For example, in
price-to-book, companies trading below '1' are considered undervalued.
Valuation ratios are also compared to the historical values of the ratio for
the company, along with comparisons to competitors and the overall
market itself.
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CONCLUSION
Our learning’s:
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The income statement takes into account some non-cash items,
such as depreciation.
The cash flow statement strips away all non-cash items and tells
you how much actual money the company generated.
The cash flow statement is divided into three parts: cash from
operations, financing and investing.
Always read the notes to the financial statements. They provide
more in-depth information on a wide range of figures reported in
the three financial statements.
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