commercial engineering

at it’s best

Consultancy Services for

Preparation of Traffic Impact Assessment
and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi
Flyover from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS,
Dhaka.

Final Report
March, 2019

17 Engineering Construction Battalion;

Bangladesh Army;
Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

Consultant:
APARAJITA Design
Development Limited.
Email.: aparajita.ddl@gmail.com
Corporate Address: 9th Floor, Haque Chamber;
89/2, Panthapath, Dhaka-1215, Bangladesh.
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FINAL
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
This feasibility study report on construction of Mirpur DOHS- Kalshi Flyover from ECB Chattar to
Mirpur DOHS Gate -1 in order to improve the existing inadequate road traffic condition as well as
capacity assessment for future traffic demand. Recently few mega scale residential housing project
(estimated over 40,000.00 nos of flats) is ongoing or under development, which will exert immense
pressure on current traffic management in near future. The team conducted a Reconnaissance
Survey and a group on physical traffic counting and observation survey, covering the entire stretch
of the Road from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS Gate -01 including Kalshi and other surrounding
areas. The feasibility study team examined the technical viability of proposed 3.70 km Flyover form
ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS by conducting different elements of traffic modeling and future traffic
impact assessment.
1.2 KEY CONCEPT OF THE PROJECT
i. Improvement of existing vehicular traffic flow management and accessibility in Matikata,
Kalshi Pallabi, DOHS, Mirpur-12 and surrounding areas.
ii. Reduce or alleviate traffic congestion in Matikata (Kalshi – ECB Chattar Road), Mirpur
DOHS area and Pallabi by providing uninterrupted express route way.
iii. To enhance the existing traffic vehicular capacity and develop additional capacity to meet
the future intra-zonal and inter-zonal traffic or travel demand.
1.3 MAJOR TASKS OF THE FEASIBILITY STUDY
i. Investigating the current roadway capacity and vehicular traffic characteristics – both
demand and supply.
ii. Performing system performance analysis to identify vehicular level of service (LOS),
provided by the existing road networks.
iii. Performing 4-step traffic demand forecast modeling to estimate the future traffic growth and
demand.
iv. Identifying suitable roadway infrastructure development alternatives / options through
MCDA modeling.
1.4 EXISTING ROADWAY CAPACITY
The network database developed for the existing road networks (segment wise from ECB Chattar
to DOHD Gtae-01) of the study area includes the required characteristics listed in the following table.
Table-1: Structure of Road Network Database
Sl Road Description Left Right Total Effective Median Sid
No Carriagew Carriageway Lane Lane No. ewa
ay Width Width (Feet) No (Left lk
(Feet) (Left +Right)
+Right)
1 Banani Flyover to ECB Chattar 38.00 43.0 3+3 3+3 Yes Yes

2 ECB Chattar To Kalshi Intersection 31.00 30.00 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes

3 Kalshi to 25.0 25.0 2+2 2+2 Yes No

K.I.H.S Intersection
Kalshi to Pallbi 30.0 28.0 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes
4 Kalshi to ECB Canteen / Shagufta 20.0 22.0 2+2 1+1 Yes Yes
Moar
5 ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to 25.0 25.0 2+2 2+2 Yes Yes
Mirpur 12

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6 ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to 29.0 28.0 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes
DOHS Gate-01

1.5 RATIONALE OF EXISTING ROAD NETWORKS IMPROVEMENT

PROPOSALS
From the below table, it is clearly noticeable that, two road sections (both left bound and right bound)
ECB Chattar to Kalshi and Kalshi Moar to Shagufta Moar have worst level of service with compare
to others. These road segments LOS periodically varies from E= unstable to F= Forced Flow (worst
condition). So traffic network improvement and capacity development within these road segments
are very essential.
Table-2: Road Segment wise Level of Service Based on V/C Ratio
Hourly Traffic Volume (PCU / hr) Volume Capacity Ratio Level of Service (LOS)
Total
Effective Capacity Afterno Morni Afterno
Segment Name Lane Morning Evenin Averag Mornin Afternoon Evening Avera Evenin Averag
Lane No (PCU/hr) on Off- ng on Off-
No Peak g Peak e g Peak Off-peak Peak ge g Peak e
peak Peak peak
Banani Flyover to ECB
3 3 4200 3753.14 3353.98 2920.89 3342.67 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.80 E D C D
Chattar
ECB Chattar to Banani
3 3 4200 2443.87 2280.45 3415.50 2713.27 0.58 0.54 0.81 0.65 A A E B
Flyover
ECB Chattar to Kalshi
3 2 2800 3217.59 2674.10 2758.05 2883.24 1.15 0.96 0.99 1.03 F F E F
Moar
Kalshi Moar to ECB
3 2 2800 2298.85 1799.29 3396.64 2498.26 0.82 0.64 1.21 0.89 E B F E
Chattar
Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to
2 2 2800 2429.03 1788.02 2223.64 2146.90 0.87 0.64 0.79 0.77 D B C C
Pallabi
Pallabi to Kalshi
2 2 2800 1328.83 1077.67 1897.04 1434.51 0.47 0.38 0.68 0.51 A A B A
K.I.H.S Moar
Kalshi Moar to ECB
Canteen / Shagufta 3 2 2800 2037.92 2011.24 3018.41 2355.85 0.73 0.72 1.08 0.84 C C F D
Moar
ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to 3 2 2800 3747.97 3090.86 2968.04 3268.95 1.34 1.10 1.06 1.17 F F F F
Kalshi Moar
ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to 2 2 2800 296.36 281.75 941.16 506.42 0.11 0.10 0.34 0.18 A A A A
Mirpur 12
Mirpur 12 to ECB
Canteen / Shagufta 2 2 2800 1362.64 997.40 1271.67 1210.57 0.49 0.36 0.45 0.43 A A A A
Moar
ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to 2 2 2800 1045.47 977.39 1370.57 1131.14 0.37 0.35 0.49 0.40 A A A A
Mirpur DOHS Gate-01
Mirpur DOHS Gate-01
to ECB Canteen / 2 2 2800 1949.25 1806.08 1639.21 1798.18 0.70 0.65 0.59 0.64 B B A B
Shagufta Moar

1.6 MAJOR FINDINGS FROM SURVEY ACTIVITIES AND ANALYSIS

Existing Traffic Volume: Detail tabular estimation traffic estimating sheet is shown in Table-03.
Table-03: Estimating ADT and AADT
Large Laguna/T CNG/ Moto Trailor/ Adjusted ADT
SL. No Time Truck Pickup Car ADT (13.0 Hours) AADT
Bus/Mini ampu/Du Autoricks Cycle Transsit (24.0 Hours)
1 7.30 -8.30 am 16 833 142 1069 199 350.4 239.5 144 2993 3442
2 8.30 -9.30 am 18 850.5 168 1080 212 353.6 242.5 172 3097 3561
3 9.30 -10.30 am 10 917 172 1095 221 366.4 248 220 3249 3737
4 10.30 -11.30 am 14 927.5 165 1061 235 345.6 255.5 260 3264 3753
5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 6 840 153 1071 217 328.8 247.5 192 3055 3514
6 12.30 -1.30 pm 10 787.5 132 1091 201 308 243 144 2917 3354
7 1.30 -2.30 pm 12 735 101 1041 163 303.2 250.5 84 2690 3093
8 2.30 -3.30 pm 16 787.5 91 1040 48 302.4 261.5 48 2594 2984
43869
9 3.30- 4.30 pm 10 763 78 1031 58 278.4 249.5 72 2540 2921
10 4.30 -5.30 pm 12 808.5 71 973 65 260 237.5 48 2475 2846
11 5.30 -6.30 pm 24 885.5 65 931 78 238.4 215.5 32 2469 2840
12 6.30 -7.30 pm 30 955.5 69 721 91 231.2 201 20 2319 2667
13 7.30 -8.30 pm 78 938 79 604 104 228.8 179 0 2211 2542
14 8.30 -9.30 pm 90 868 86 516 124 220 172.5 100 2177 2503
15 9.30 -10.30 pm 136 696.5 102 498 114 212 167.5 180 2106 2422
Total 482 12593 1674 13822 2130 4327.2 3410.5 1716 40155 46178

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Traffic distribution (O-D Matrix) among various zones with respect to the study area (greater Mirpur
Area) has shown significant amount of traffic attraction (second after Motijheel Area).

Table -4: O-D Matrix Developed For All Vehicle Trips Of DMA Area, Linked with Greater
Mirpur-Pallabi Area.

1.7 SUITABILITY / COMAPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED FLYOVER

THROUGH MCDA MODELING
The following alternative structural modifications to the road stretch are considered by the consulting
team for identifying the best possible and effective road way improvement solution through MCDA
modeling for the proposed project area.
1. Widening of the existing road stretch
2. Tunnel beneath the existing road stretch
3. Flyover above the existing road stretch
Among 06 development alternatives, Flyover with Overpasses for Pedestrian Alternative has the
lowest (- ve) impact (see Figure 01). So this alternative can be recommended as the most suitable
option.

Figure 1: Tree diagram of alternative selection

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1.8 RATIONALE OF FLYOVER LENGTH EXTENSION
Road traffic in the section from Kalshi intersection to Uttara link near DOHS will increase
tremendously after the planned treatments of at grade road and development of the influence area.
For the U-loops and roundabout at Uttara link to function efficiently some of the road traffic with no
turning demand needs to be diverted from the at grade road. The most efficient way to achieve this
target is to separate the straight going traffic from the rest by grade separation by a flyover. It is
planned that central portion of the flyover terminating after negotiating Kalshi intersection will be
continued to carry straight going traffic. An estimate of traffic volume with this need of travel reveals
that a single lane each way in an undivided flyover will be sufficient to carry the relevant traffic
stream. To provide for breakdown, an undivided carriageway width of 9.15m equivalent to 2½ lanes
should be adequate. The extension of DPP planned flyover by this flyover to a point beyond the new
Uttara link is suggested.

Turning right at the intersection point is the main reason for unbearable traffic congestion in Kalshi
intersection and Matikata road. With huge amount of through traffic and regional traffic, in peak
hours, the scenario goes worst. To prevent the right turning traffic and providing expressway route
without any signalization and interruption, the proposed flyover is very much useful. It will provide
free expressway from Matikata road up to Mirpur DOHS. The previous the authority plan of flyover
doesn’t eliminate all right turning traffic at Kalshi intersection, in addition it will create more traffic
conflicts at the foot of ramp of the proposed flyover. To eliminate these problems, 17 ECB has
revised the whole the authority plan and extended the proposed the authority up to Mirpur DOHS.
The main advantage of this revised the revised plan will be avoidance of traffic conflict at Kalshi
intersection and Shagufta Moar. Moreover, it will eliminate all kinds of vehicular right turning in Kalshi
Intersection and Shagufta Moar. So it is expected the revised the plan of proposed flyover will serve
more its core objective free flow traffic rather than the previous one.

1.9 FUTURE IMPACT OF PROPOSED FLYOVER

The significant impacts of the flyover execution will be the reduction of travel time from minimum 1.5
hours to nearly 20-30 minutes with the reduction of travel distance from 11 kilometer to nearly 3
kilometer. It will make travel possible almost traffic congestion free for the inhabitants of Greater
Mirpur area in travelling to Airport, Uttara, Tongi, Gazipur etc. places.

1.10 RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

The following Table 05 provides list of service roads, those required to be developed (widening
specially) and Figure 2 shows the geo-spatial extent of these proposed service road extension
activities.

Table 5: Proposed Service Road Capacity Development

Sl Road Name Existing Carriageway Proposed Carriageway
No. Width Width
1 Manikdi - Amtola Road 22.0 Feet 60 Feet
2 Baunia Jashiuddin Road 40.0 Feet 60 Feet
3 Balurghat - Mastertek road 20 Feet 60 Feet
4 Shagufta - Mastertek Connecting Road 20 Feet 60 Feet
5 Shagufta Main Road 23.0 Feet 60 Feet
6 Shagufta -Aziz Market Road 22.0 Feet 60 Feet
7 Kolabagan -Pukurpar Road 40 Feet 60 Feet
8 Balurghat Road 40 Feet 60 Feet

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Figure 02: Geospatial Extent of Service Road Widening (60 Feet) and Capacity Development
Proposals

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ i
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................ vi
LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................................................... xv
LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................................................... xviii
LIST OF PHOTOS ...................................................................................................................................................... xxi
LIST OF ABBREVIATION .......................................................................................................................................... xxii

CHAPTER-01 .................................................................................................................................................................1
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY ..................................................................................................................................1
1.1 GENERAL .......................................................................................................................................................1
1.2 BACKGROU OF THE PROJECT ....................................................................................................................1
1.2.1 RAPID URBANIZATION IN DHAKA............................................................................................................1
1.2.1.2 URBAN TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGE FOR DHAKA CITY ...........................................................1
1.2.1.3 PROBLEMS OF URBAN ROAD SPACE AND THEIR CAUSES ............................................................2
1.2.1.4 DEARTH OF ROAD SPACE IN DHAKA CITY .......................................................................................2
1.2.1.5 FUTURE TRAFFIC IMPROVEMENT STRATEGY .................................................................................2
1.2.2 CONTEXT AND SETTING OF THE PROJECT ..........................................................................................2
1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECT .....................................................................................................................2
1.4 RATIONALE OF PROPOSED ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT ..............................................................3
1.5 PROJECT VISION AND OBJECTIVES ...........................................................................................................4
1.6 PROJECT EXECUTING AND IMPLEMENTING AGENCY .............................................................................4
1.7 FEASIBILITY STUDY OF THE PROJECT ......................................................................................................4
CHAPTER-02 .................................................................................................................................................................6
STUDY FRAMEWORK AND APPROACH .....................................................................................................................6
2.1 GENERAL .......................................................................................................................................................6
2.2 KEY CONCEPT AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE STUDY ...........................................................................6
2.3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF FIELD BASED ACTIVITIES .....................................................................6
2.3.1 RECONNAISSANCE SURVEY ...................................................................................................................6
2.3.2 UNDERSTANDING SURVEY ACTIVITIES .................................................................................................7
2.3.3 SELECTED SPPLY-SIDE ROAD SURVEYS ..............................................................................................9
2.4 APPROACH OF TRAFFIC STUDY AND PLANNING......................................................................................9
2.4.1 TRIP-BASED VERSUS ACTIVITY-BASED APPROACHES ..................................................................... 10
2.4.2 ADOPTING ACTIVITY BASED STUDY APPROACH ............................................................................... 11
2.4.3 ACTIVITY-BASED TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING SYSTEMS ............................................................... 11
2.4.3.1 UTILITY MAXIMIZATION-BASED ECONOMETRIC MODEL SYSTEM ............................................... 11
2.4.3.2 DEVELOPING INTEGRATED URBAN MODELING SYSTEM ............................................................. 13
2.5 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................... 14
CHAPTER-03 PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................................... 15

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3.1 BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT SCENARIO ......................................................................................... 15
3.2 PROJECT PLANNING................................................................................................................................... 16
3.3 REVISION OF PROJECT PLAN ................................................................................................................... 16
3.3.1 INITIAL DPP ............................................................................................................................................. 16
3.3.2 RATIONALE OF REVISING DPP ............................................................................................................. 17
3.3 DETAIL PROJECT PROPOSALS IN RDPP .................................................................................................. 21
3.3.1 INCREASE OF FLYOVER LENGTH ......................................................................................................... 21
3.3.2 ADDTIONAL TRAFFIC CAPACITY AND FACILITY DEVELOPMENT ..................................................... 23
Chapter-04 Urban Traffic System In Dhaka ................................................................................................................ 25
4.1 GENERAL ..................................................................................................................................................... 25
4.2 HISTORICAL GROWTH OF DHAKA CITY ................................................................................................... 25
4.3 POPULATION GROWTH IN DHAKA- PRESENT AND FUTURE ................................................................. 26
4.4 URBANIZATION AND MIGRATION RATE .................................................................................................... 26
4.4.1 URBANIZATION TREND IN DHAKA ........................................................................................................ 26
4.4.2 MIGRATION AND INDUCED POPULATION GROWTH OF DHAKA ....................................................... 27
4.5 URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEM OF DHAKA CITY ....................................................................................... 28
4.5.1 EXISTING ROADWAY TRAFFIC DEMAND IN DHAKA ........................................................................... 28
4.5.2 FUTURE TRAFFIC DEMAND IN DHAKA ................................................................................................. 29
4.5.3 CURRENT TRAFFIC MODEL SHARE DISTRIBUTION IN DHAKA ......................................................... 30
4.5.4 FUTURE TRAFFIC MODEL SHARE ESTIMATION.................................................................................. 31
4.6 VEHICULAR TRAFFIC COMPOSITION IN DHAKA ...................................................................................... 32
4.6.1 EXISTING PRIVATE VEHICLES IN DHAKA ............................................................................................ 32
4.6.1.1 MOTORCYCLES .................................................................................................................................. 32
4.6.1.2 PRIVATE CARS ................................................................................................................................... 32
4.6.1.3 AUTO-RICKSHAWS............................................................................................................................. 33
4.6.1.4 FOUR-WHEELED VEHICLES .............................................................................................................. 33
4.6.1.5 PUBLIC TRANSPORT ......................................................................................................................... 33
4.6.1.6 FREIGHT TRANSPORT ....................................................................................................................... 33
4.6.1.7 NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT RICKSHAWS ................................................................................. 34
4.6.1.8 BICYCLES ............................................................................................................................................ 34
4.6.1.9 PEDESTRIANS .................................................................................................................................... 34
4.6.2 MOTORISED VEHICLE GROWING TREND IN DHAKA ........................................................................... 34
4.7 TRAFFIC FLOWS AND CONGESTION IN DHAKA ...................................................................................... 36
4.8 CONCLUDING REMARKS ............................................................................................................................ 37
CHAPTER-05 ............................................................................................................................................................... 38
STUDY AREA PROFILE .............................................................................................................................................. 38
5.1 GENERAL ..................................................................................................................................................... 38
5.2 PROJECT INFLUENCE OR STUDY AREA .................................................................................................. 38
5.3 GEOPHYSICAL CHARACTERSTICS OF STUDY AREA ............................................................................. 39

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5.3.1 LANDUSE PATTERN ............................................................................................................................... 39
5.3.2 GEOLOGY AND SOIL .............................................................................................................................. 42
5.3.3 FAULT ZONE AND SEISMICITY .............................................................................................................. 43
5.3.6 VEHICULAR TRAFFIC GROWTH PATTERN / FACTOR ......................................................................... 44
5.4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE OF STUDY AREA ........................................................................................ 44
5.4.1 PRESENT DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO ................................................................................................. 44
5.4.1.1 POPULATION GROWTH AND DENSITY ............................................................................................ 44
5.4.1.2 HOUSEHOLDS .................................................................................................................................... 46
5.4.1.3 AGE STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................................... 46
5.4.1.4 HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT ..................................................................................... 47
5.4.2 FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO .................................................................................................... 47
5.5 DELINEATING TRAFFIC ATTRACTION ZONE ............................................................................................. 49
CHAPTER-06 METHOD STATEMENT ..................................................................................................................... 50
6.1 GENERAL ..................................................................................................................................................... 50
6.2 APPROACH OF THE STUDY ....................................................................................................................... 50
6.3 DETAIL METHOD STATEMENT ................................................................................................................... 51
6.3.1 SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION ......................................................................................................... 51
6.3.2 SURVEY AND PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION ....................................................................................... 51
6.3.2.1 RECONNAISSANCE AND SURVEY DESIGN ..................................................................................... 52
6.3.2.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME SURVEY............................................................................................................... 52
6.3.2.3 ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE INVENTORY ........................................................................................... 53
6.3.2.4 ROAD INTERSECTION AND TRAFFIC FLOW DIRECTION SURVEY ............................................... 54
6.3.2.5 TRAFFIC SPEED SURVEY ................................................................................................................. 55
6.3.2.6 TRAVEL TIME AND DELAY SURVEY ................................................................................................. 55
6.3.3 DATABASE PREPARATION AND PROCESSING ................................................................................... 55
6.4 DATA ANALYSIS AND TRAFFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................ 56
CHAPTER-07 ............................................................................................................................................................... 57
DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT ....................................................................................................... 57
7.1 GENERAL ..................................................................................................................................................... 57
7.2 TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST: FOUR-STEP MODEL .............................................................................. 57
7.2.1 OVERALL 4-STEP MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROCEDURE .................................................................. 58
7.2.2 TRIP GENERATION ................................................................................................................................. 58
7.2.2.1 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ) ..................................................................................................... 59
7.2.2.2 GROWTH FACTOR MODELING ....................................................................................................... 60
7.2.2.3 EXISTING SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS BY TAZ ....................................................................... 61
7.2.2.4 NETWORK DATABASE DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................... 61
7.2.2.5 CAPACITY AND SPEED RELATIONSHIP ........................................................................................... 62
7.2.2.6 TRIP GENERATION MODEL ............................................................................................................... 63
7.2.2.7 TRIP PRODUCTION AND ATTRACTION MODEL .............................................................................. 64

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7.2.3 TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL .................................................................................................................. 64
7.2.3.1 TRIP DISTRIBUTION BY USING O-D MATRIX ................................................................................... 66
7.2.4 TRIP ASSIGNMENT ................................................................................................................................. 67
7.2.5 CALIBRATION OF MODELS .................................................................................................................... 67
7.2 TRAFFIC SYSTEM PERFORMENCE MODEL ............................................................................................. 67
7.2.1 Level of Service (LOS) .............................................................................................................................. 68
7.2.1.1 Classification of Level of Service .......................................................................................................... 68
7.2.1.2 ROADWAY CAPACITY ANALYSIS...................................................................................................... 70
7.2.1.3 STUDIES OF SPEED ........................................................................................................................... 70
7.2.1.4 DELAY STUDY..................................................................................................................................... 71
7.2.2 TRAFFIC MOBILITY AND CONGESTION STUDY................................................................................... 72
7.2.2.1 QUANTIFYING TRAFFIC CONGESTION ............................................................................................ 72
7.2.2.2 MOBILITY LEVEL................................................................................................................................. 73
CHAPTER-08 ............................................................................................................................................................... 74
TRAVEL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS............................................................................................................. 74
8.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY .................................................................................................................. 74
8.2 EXISTING TRAFFIC CAPACITY OR SUPPLY ............................................................................................. 74
8.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME SURVEY ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 75
8.2.1 TRAFFIC COUNT DATA ........................................................................................................................... 76
8.2.2 TRAFFIC CATEGORIAL COUNTING ....................................................................................................... 76
8.2.3 TRAFFIC COUNT FORMAT OR SHEET .................................................................................................. 76
8.2.4 TRAFFIC COUNTING AND SURVEY....................................................................................................... 77
8.3 SCREEN LINE TRAFFIC COUNTING AND ESTIMATION ........................................................................... 78
8.4 DETAIL SCREEN LINE VOLUME ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 79
8.4.1 SREEN LINE OR ROAD SEGMENT WISE ANALYSIS ............................................................................ 81
8.4.1.1 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT BANANI TO ECB CHATTAR SECTION ......................................................... 82
8.4.1.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT ECB CHATTAR TO KALSHI MOAR SECTION .............................................. 83
8.4.1.3 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT KALSHI K.I.H.S MOAR TO PALLABI SECTION ............................................. 84
8.4.1.4 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT KALSHI TO ECB CANTEEN / SHAGUFTA SECTION ................................... 86
8.4.1.5 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT ECB CANTEEN / SHAGUFTA MOAR TO MIRPUR 12 .................................. 87
8.4.1.6 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT ECB CANTEEN / SHAGUFTA MOAR TO MIRPUR DOHS GATE-01 ............ 89
8.4.2 PEAK & OFF-PEAK VOLUME .................................................................................................................. 90
8.5 INTERSECTION BASED TRAFFIC QEUE AND FLOW ANALYSIS ............................................................. 95
8.5.1 ECB CHATTAR INTERSECTION ............................................................................................................. 95
8.5.2 KALSHI MOAR INTERSECTION .............................................................................................................. 97
8.5.3 KALSHI (K.I.H.S) -PALLABI MOAR INTERSECTION............................................................................. 100
8.5.4 ECB CANTEEN OR SHAGUFTA MOAR INTERSECTION .................................................................... 102
CHAPTER-09 ............................................................................................................................................................. 105
TRAFFIC SYSTEM PERFORMENCE ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 105

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9.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................................................... 105
9.2 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS .............................................................................................................. 105
9.3 SELECTED INDICATORS / STUDIES FOR THIS STUDY ......................................................................... 105
9.4 SURVEY AND DATA COLLECTION ........................................................................................................... 107
9.5 SYSTEM INDICATOR ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................... 108
9.5.1 ROAD SEGMENT WISE LOS BASED ON TRAFFIC VOLUME .................................................................. 108
9.5.2 ROAD SEGMENT WISE AVERAGE VEHICULAR SPEED......................................................................... 108
CHAPTER-10 ............................................................................................................................................................. 111
TRAVEL DEMAND FORECAST ................................................................................................................................ 111
10.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................................................... 111
10.2 MODEL DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT..................................................................................................... 112
10.2.1 MODEL DEVLOPMENT.......................................................................................................................... 112
10.2.2 MODEL DESIGN..................................................................................................................................... 112
10.3 TRAFFIC / TRIP ATTRACTION ZONE (TAZ) DEVELOPMENT ................................................................. 114
10.4 BASE YEAR CONDITION ........................................................................................................................... 115
10.4.1 BASE YEAR DEMAND ........................................................................................................................... 115
10.4.2 FUTURE YEAR DEMAND ...................................................................................................................... 116
10.4.3 VEHICLE CLASS PROPORTIONS......................................................................................................... 116
10.4.4 VEHICLE GROWTH MODEL .................................................................................................................. 117
10.5 TRIP GENERATION .................................................................................................................................... 117
10.5.1 TRIP GENERATION MODEL WITHIN STUDY AREA ............................................................................ 118
10.5.2 TRIP GENERATION MODEL EXTERNAL TAZs .................................................................................... 119
10.6 TRIP DISTRIBUTION AND EXTERNAL TRAFFIC ADJUSTMENT ............................................................. 121
10.7 TRAFFIC FORECASTS / ASSIGNMENTS .................................................................................................. 121
10.7 TRAVEL TIME FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................... 126
CHAPTER-11 ............................................................................................................................................................. 134
TRAFFIC SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES ............................................................................................ 134
11.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................................................... 134
11.2 MCDA MODEL - TRAFFIC IMPROVEMENT ALTERNATIVE .................................................................... 134
11.2.1 ALTERNATIVE VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW ...................................................................................... 134
11.2.2 ALTERNATIVES FOR PEDESTRIAN FLOW ........................................................................................ 135
11.2.3 CRITERIA COMPARISON WITH THE GOAL ........................................................................................ 136
11.2.4 COMBINED ALTERNATIVES ................................................................................................................ 137
11.2.5 MCDA MODEL OUTPUT ....................................................................................................................... 137
11.3 PERFORMENCE REVIEW STUDY OF EXISTING FLYOVERS ................................................................. 138
11.3.1 LEVEL OF PERFORMENCE ................................................................................................................. 138
11.3.1.1 ASSESSMENT OF TRAFFIC FLOW ................................................................................................. 138
11.3.1.2 ASSESSMENT OF OPERATIONAL SPEED ................................................................................... 140
11.3.1.3 ASSESSMENT OF QUEUE LENGTH .............................................................................................. 140

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11.3.1.4 SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF FLYOVERS ......................................................................................... 141
11.3.2 CONCLUDING REMARKS .................................................................................................................... 141
CHAPTER-12 ............................................................................................................................................................. 142
IMPACT OF FLYOVER ON FUTURE TRAFFIC FLOW ............................................................................................. 142
12.1 FUTURE INTERSECTION TRAFFIC FLOW ............................................................................................... 142
12.2 FUTURE CAPACITY ANALYSIS OF INTERSECTIONS WITH FLYOVER ................................................. 142
12.3 OVERALL EXPECTED INTERSECTION PERFORMENCE WITH FLYOVER ............................................ 145
CHAPTER-13 ............................................................................................................................................................. 146
IMPACT OF FLYOVER ON FUTURE TRANSPORTATION ...................................................................................... 146
13.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................................................... 146
13.2 PURPOSE AND GOAL OF PROPOSED FLYOVER ................................................................................... 146
13.3 EFFECTIVENESS OF PROPOSED FLYOVER .......................................................................................... 146
13.4 ORIGIN AND DESTINATION OF THE TRAFFIC ........................................................................................ 147
13.5 ROAD TRAFFIC AND CONNECTIVITY ...................................................................................................... 148
13.5.1 ROAD TRAFFIC SCENARIO .................................................................................................................. 148
13.5.2 CONNECTIVITY ..................................................................................................................................... 148
13.6 IMPACT OF PROPOSED FLYOVER ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION....................................................... 149
13.6.1 FUTURE PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODE ................................................................................................. 149
13.6.2 FUTURE PREFERRED TRANSPORT ROUTE BY THE USERS ........................................................... 149
13.6.3 CAPACITY ANALYSIS OF INTERSECTIONS WITH FLYOVER ............................................................ 149
13.6.3 IMPACT ON TRAVEL TIME OF INHABITANTS ..................................................................................... 149
13.6.4 IMPACT ON REDUCTION OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION ....................................................................... 151
13.7 PUBLIC OPINION ABOUT THE PROPOSED FLYOVER ........................................................................... 151
13.8 IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD TRAFFIC SECURITY ....................................................................................... 152
13.9 OVERALL FUTURE SCENARIO ................................................................................................................ 152
CHAPTER-14 ............................................................................................................................................................. 153
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT OF PROPOSED FLYOVER ........................................................................ 153
14.1 General ........................................................................................................................................................ 153
14.2 TRAFFIC INFORMATION ........................................................................................................................... 153
14.3 Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC & TTC)........................................................................................................ 153
14.4 COST SAVINGS BENEFITS ....................................................................................................................... 154
14.5 PROJECT COSTS ......................................................................................................................................... 154
14.5.1 Construction Costs ................................................................................................................................ 154
14.5.2 MAINTENANCE COSTS ......................................................................................................................... 154
14.6 ESTIMATION OF BENEFITS ...................................................................................................................... 155
14.6.1 SHADOW FACTOR (CONVERSION FACTOR) ..................................................................................... 155
14.6.2 DISCOUNT RATE ................................................................................................................................... 155
14.6.3 LIFE CYCLE ........................................................................................................................................... 155
14.6.4 TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE ...................................................................................................................... 155

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14.6.5 Net Present Value (NPV) ........................................................................................................................ 156
14.6.6 ECONOMIC INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (EIRR) ............................................................................. 156
14.6.7 BENEFIT COST RATIO .......................................................................................................................... 156
14.7 SENSITIVITY TEST..................................................................................................................................... 156
14.7.1 COST BENEFIT STREAM (BASE CASE AND SENSITIVITY) ............................................................... 156
14.7.2 Results of economic analysis including sensitivity .................................................................................. 157
CHAPTER-15 ............................................................................................................................................................. 158
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ............................................................................................................. 158
15.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................................................... 158
15.2 PREDICTION OF IMPACTS ........................................................................................................................ 158
15.3 IMPACT DUE TO PROJECT ACTIVITIES .................................................................................................. 158
15.3.1 AIR POLLUTION ..................................................................................................................................... 158
15.3.1.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE .................................................................................. 158
15.3.1.2 OPERATION STAGE ........................................................................................................................ 159
15.3.2 WATER POLLUTION .............................................................................................................................. 159
15.3.2.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE .................................................................................. 159
15.3.2.2 OPERATION STAGE ........................................................................................................................ 160
15.3.3 SOIL POLLUTION................................................................................................................................... 160
15.3.3.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE .................................................................................. 160
15.3.3.2 OPERATION STAGE ........................................................................................................................ 160
15.3.4 WASTE ................................................................................................................................................... 160
15.3.4.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE .................................................................................. 160
15.3.4.2 OPERATION STAGE .................................................................................................................. 160
15.3.5 NOISE AND VIBRATION ..................................................................................................................... 160
15.3.5.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE .................................................................................. 160
15.3.5.2 OPERATION STAGE .................................................................................................................. 161
15.3.6 GROUND SUBSIDENCE ........................................................................................................................ 161
15.3.6.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ............................................................................ 161
15.3.6.2 OPERATION STAGE .................................................................................................................. 161
15.3.7 OFFENSIVE ODOR ............................................................................................................................. 161
15.3.7.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ............................................................................ 161
15.3.7.2 OPERATION STAGE .................................................................................................................. 161
15.3.8 BOTTOM SEDIMENT .......................................................................................................................... 161
15.3.8.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE........................................................................................................... 161
15.3.8.2 OPERATION STAGE .................................................................................................................. 162
15.3.9 PROTECTED AREA ............................................................................................................................ 162
15.3.9.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE........................................................................................................... 162
15.3.9.2 OPERATION STAGE .................................................................................................................. 162
15.3.10 BIOTA AND ECOSYSTEM ........................................................................................................................ 163

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15.3.10.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE .............................................................................................................. 163
15.3.10.2 OPERATION PHASE ...................................................................................................................... 163
15.3.11 HYDROLOGY ........................................................................................................................................ 163
15.3.11.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE .............................................................................................................. 163
15.3.11.2 OPERATION STAGE ..................................................................................................................... 163
15.3.12 GROUND WATER ........................................................................................................................... 163
15.3.12.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE .............................................................................................................. 163
15.3.12.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 163
15.3.13 TOPOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 164
15.3.13.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE .............................................................................................................. 164
15.3.13.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 164
15.3.14 INVOLUNTARY RESETTLEMENT .................................................................................................. 164
15.3.14.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION ............................................................................................. 164
15.3.14.2 OPERATION PHASE ...................................................................................................................... 164
15.3.15 LOCAL ECONOMICS SUCH AS EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOOD ............................................ 164
15.3.15.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ................................................................................ 164
15.3.15.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 164
15.3.16 LAND USE AND UTILIZATION OF LOCAL RESOURCES ............................................................. 164
15.3.16.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION ............................................................................................. 164
15.3.16.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 164
15.3.17 SOCIAL SERVICE FACILITIES ....................................................................................................... 165
15.3.17.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ................................................................................ 165
15.3.17.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 165
15.3.18 SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND LOCAL DECISION-MAKING INSTITUTIONS ................................. 165
15.3.18.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ................................................................................ 165
15.3.18.2 OPERATION PHASE ...................................................................................................................... 165
15.3.19 MIS-DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS AND DAMAGES .................................................................... 165
15.3.19.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ............................................................................... 165
15.3.19.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 165
15.3.20 LOCAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST ............................................................................................... 165
15.3.20.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ............................................................................... 165
15.3.20.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 166
15.3.21 WORKING CONDITION ........................................................................................................................ 166
15.3.21.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ............................................................................... 166
15.3.21.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 166
15.3.22 GLOBAL WARMING/CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................... 166
15.3.22.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE ............................................................................... 166
15.3.22.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 166
15.3.23 ACCIDENT....................................................................................................................................... 166

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15.3.23.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE .................................................................................. 166
15.3.23.2 OPERATION STAGE ...................................................................................................................... 166
15.4 EVALUATION OF IMPACT ......................................................................................................................... 166
15.5 EXPECTED POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ............................................................................... 168
15.5.1 IMPACTS ON LOCAL ECONOMIES ...................................................................................................... 168
15.5.2 LAND USE AND UTILIZATION OF LOCAL RESOURCES .................................................................... 169
15.5.3 GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................................... 169
15.5.4 TRAFFIC CONGESTION REDUCTION .................................................................................................. 169
15.5.5 MOBILITY AND SAFETY ........................................................................................................................ 169
15.6 REQUIRED STUDIES FOR MITIGATING THE FUTURE IMPACTS .......................................................... 169
15.6.1 EIA STUDY ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN (EMP) ............................................................. 169
15.6.2 ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING PLAN ............................................................................................... 169
15.6.3 LAP AND RAP ........................................................................................................................................ 170
15.6.4 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN .................................................... 170
CHAPTER-16 ............................................................................................................................................................. 171
RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 171
16.1 GENERAL ................................................................................................................................................... 171
16.2 REASONS FOR EXTENDING FLYOVER UP TO MIRPUR DOHS ............................................................. 171
16.3 RECOMMENDED IMPROVEMENTS REQUIRMENT ................................................................................. 171
16.3.1 DEVELOPMENT OF SERVICE ROADS ................................................................................................. 172
16.3.2 BYPASS OR ROAD CURVE AT KALSHI .............................................................................................. 174
16.3.3 CONSTRUCTION OF U-LOOPS AND BUS BAYS ................................................................................ 175
16.3.4 TRAFFIC SEGREGATION AND MANAGEMENT ................................................................................. 175
16.3.4.1 PADESTRIAN FACILITY ................................................................................................................... 176
16.3.4.2 FOOTBRIDGES AND SUBWAYS ..................................................................................................... 176
16.3.4.3 LIMITED ACCESS ............................................................................................................................. 176
16.3.4.4 BARRIERS AND MARKINGS ........................................................................................................... 176
16.3.4.5 CROSSING POINTS ......................................................................................................................... 176
16.3.4.6 PEDESTRIAN WARNING SIGN........................................................................................................ 176
16.4 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................. 177

Annexures..................................................................................................................................................

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FINAL
LIST OF TABLES

Table-1: Structure of Road Network Database................................................................................................................ i

Table-2: Road Segment wise Level of Service Based on V/C Ratio .............................................................................. ii
Table-03: Estimating ADT and AADT............................................................................................................................. ii
Table -4: O-D Matrix Developed For All Vehicle Trips Of DMA Area, Linked with Greater Mirpur-Pallabi Area. ........... iii
Table 5: Proposed Service Road Capacity Development ............................................................................................. iv
Table 2-1: Supply-Side Surveys Different Categories of Supply-Side and Demand-Side Surveys with Their Purposes
and Indicators.................................................................................................................................................................8
Table 2-2: Demand-Side Surveys Different Categories with Their Purposes and Indicators .........................................9
Table 2-3: Travel Forecasting System of Activity-based Model.................................................................................... 12
Table 4-1: The Primacy of Dhaka in the National and National Urban Context ............................................................ 25
Table 4-2: Historical Population Growth Trend and Forecasted Future Population for Dhaka ..................................... 26
Table 4-3: Population and In-Migration Trend in Dhaka City from 1941 to 2011 .......................................................... 28
Table 4-4: Predicted Future Travel Demand in Dhaka by RSTP .................................................................................. 29
Table 4-5: Population Trip Rate by Trip Purpose in DMR Area .................................................................................... 29
Table 4-6: Present and Future Trip Rate by Each Mode (Unit: %) ............................................................................... 30
Table 4-7: Modal Share in Metro Dhaka ...................................................................................................................... 30
Table 4-8: Income Level and Modal Choice of Passenger ........................................................................................... 31
Table 4-9: Modal Share of Trips with Respect to Income Groups ................................................................................ 31
Table 4-10: Estimated or Forecasted Vehicular Modal Shares (Total Passenger Trips in %) by RSTP....................... 32
Table 5-1: List of Administrative Areas or Wards selected as Study Area ................................................................... 38
Table 5-2: Major Influence Zones and Areas for Proposed Flyover ............................................................................. 38
Table 5-3: DAP Database Inventory on Existing Landuse Pattern of Study Area ........................................................ 40
Table 5-4: DAP Database Inventory on Proposed / Future Landuse Pattern of Study Area ........................................ 41
Table 5-5: Geomorphic Units Identified for Dhaka Terrace .......................................................................................... 43
Table 5-6: Current Population in All Units of Study Area .............................................................................................. 45
Table 5-7: Existing Holdings or Houses in Study Area ................................................................................................. 46
Table 5-8: Demographic Information of Existing HHs within Study Area ...................................................................... 46
Table 5-8: Population Age Structure / Distribution Pattern ........................................................................................... 47
Table 5-9: Employment Status of the Study area. ........................................................................................................ 47
Table 5-10: Study Area Population Forecast from 2020 up to 2040............................................................................. 48
Table 6-1: List of Secondary Data with Sources .......................................................................................................... 51
Table 6-2: Checklist for Road Condition Infrastructure Inventory ................................................................................. 53
Table 6-3: Schematic Checklist for Intersection Wise Traffic Channelization ............................................................... 54
Figure 7-2: Traffic Analysis Zone ................................................................................................................................ 60
Table 7-1: Structure of Road Network Database.......................................................................................................... 61
Table 7-2: QV Functioned by Type of Road ................................................................................................................. 63
Table 7-3: Trip Rate by Trip Purpose ........................................................................................................................... 64
Table 7-4: Trip Production and Attraction Model .......................................................................................................... 64

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Table 7-5: Intra-zonal Distribution Model ..................................................................................................................... 65
Table 7-6: Inter-zonal Distribution Model ..................................................................................................................... 65
Table 7-7: A general form of a two-dimensional trip matrix (Base year) for sample ..................................................... 66
Table 7-8: Sample Future Estimated Trip Distribution O-D Matrix ............................................................................... 66
Table 7-9: Classification of Level of Service ................................................................................................................ 68
Table 7-10: Standard Level of Service ......................................................................................................................... 69
Table 7-11: Scale of Different Mobility Levels .............................................................................................................. 73
Table 8-1: Geometric Feature Description of Surveyed Existing Road Networks ........................................................ 74
Table 8-2: Standard PCU Conversion Factors for All Classified Vehicle Types (Source: LGED Road Design Manual)
..................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
Table 8-3: Estimating ADT and AADT.......................................................................................................................... 79
Table 8-4: Selected Screen Line or Road Segments for Volume Analysis ................................................................... 79
Table 8-4: Road Section wise Calculated and Estimated ADT and AADT (in PCU Value) .......................................... 80
Table 8-6: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Distribution for All Surveyed Road Segments .................................... 81
Table 8-7: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario ..................................................................................................... 96
Table 8-7: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario ..................................................................................................... 98
Table 8-9: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario ................................................................................................... 100
Table 8-10: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario ................................................................................................. 103
Table 9-1: The Approach of Performance Evaluation of Regional Road Network ...................................................... 105
Table 9-2: Standard Level of Service ......................................................................................................................... 106
Table 9-2: Format of Moving Car Observer Method Based Speed Survey ................................................................ 107
Table 9-3: Format of Intersection Based Congestion and Delay Survey .................................................................... 107
Table 9-4: Road Segment wise Level of Service Based on V/C Ratio ....................................................................... 108
Table 9-5: Link Average Journey Speed and Vehicular Speed (periodical) with LOS for ECB Chattar to Kalshi Section
................................................................................................................................................................................... 109
Table 9-6: Link Average Journey Speed and Vehicular Speed (periodical) with LOS for DOHS Chattar to Kalshi
Section ....................................................................................................................................................................... 110
Table 10-1: Generic Inputs for Designing 4-step Model ............................................................................................. 113
Table 10-2: Details of External TAZs ......................................................................................................................... 114
Table 10-3: Future Year Trip Table Class Proportions ............................................................................................... 117
Table 10-4: Forecasted Trip Production for Internal TAZs within Study Area ............................................................ 118
Table 10-5: Forecasted Trip Attraction for Internal TAZs within Study Area .............................................................. 119
Table 10-6: Trip Generation at External TAZs ........................................................................................................... 120
Table 10-7: O-D Matrix Developed For All Vehicle Trips Of DMA Area, Linked with Greater Mirpur-Pallabi Area. .... 121
Table 10-8: Forecasts for Alternative 1- (Scenario 1) - with 6% GDP growth rate ..................................................... 122
Table 10-9: Forecasts for Alternative 1-(Scenario 2) with 4.8% GDP gr. rate ............................................................ 122
Table 10-10: Forecasts for Alternative 1- (Scenario 3) - with 7.2% GDP growth rate ................................................ 123
Table 10-11: Forecasts for Alternative 1 + At- Grade Road Widening- (Scenario 4).................................................. 124
Table 10-12: Forecasts for Alternative 2 - (Scenario 1).............................................................................................. 124
Table 10-13: Forecasts for Alternative 2- (Scenario 2) with growth 6% ..................................................................... 125

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Table 10-14: Forecasts for Alternative 2-(Scenario 3) with - GDP growth 6% ........................................................... 125
Table 10-15: Proposed Travel Time Scenarios .......................................................................................................... 126
Table 10-16: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2020 - Peak Period at different Scenarios ........................................... 127
Table 10-17: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2020 - Off-Peak Period at different Scenarios ..................................... 127
Table 10-18: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2020 - Super-Off-Peak Period at different Scenarios .......................... 128
Table 10-19: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2025 - Peak Period at different Scenarios ........................................... 129
Table 10-20: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2025 - Off-Peak Period at different Scenarios ..................................... 130
Table 10-21: Travel Time (min.) for Yr 2025 Super-Off-Peak Period at different Scenarios ...................................... 130
Table 10-22: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2030 - Peak Period at different Scenarios ........................................... 131
Table 10-23: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2030 - Off- Peak Period at different Scenarios .................................... 132
Table 10-24: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2030 -Super-Off- Peak Period at different Scenarios .......................... 133
Table 11-2: Quantitative values for alternatives ......................................................................................................... 135
Table 11-3: Pair wise comparison for EI .................................................................................................................... 135
Table 11-4: Synthesized matrix for three alternatives ................................................................................................ 135
Table 11-5: Quantitative values for pedestrian flow alternatives ................................................................................ 135
Table 11-6: Pair wise comparison for EI .................................................................................................................... 136
Table 11-7: Synthesized matrix for two alternatives ................................................................................................... 136
Table 11-8: Pair wise comparison for the five criteria and Priority vector for vehicle flow .......................................... 136
Table 11-9: Priority matrix for three alternatives for vehicular flow ............................................................................. 136
Table 11-10: Pair wise comparison for the five criteria and Priority vector for pedestrian flows ................................. 136
Table 11-11: Priority matrix for two alternatives for pedestrian flow ........................................................................... 137
Table 11-12: Descriptive Characteristics of Studied Flyovers .................................................................................... 138
Table 11-13: 15-Minute Classified Traffic Count in Studied Flyovers ......................................................................... 138
Table 11-14: Proportion of NMVs Travelling Over and Under Flyover ....................................................................... 139
Table 12-1: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2021) ............................................ 142
Table 12-2: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2025) ............................................ 143
Table 12-3: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2030) ............................................ 144
Table 12-4: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2035) ............................................ 144
Table 12-5: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2040) ............................................ 145
Table 13-1: Present Binary Connectivity Matrix ......................................................................................................... 148
Table 13-2: Previous Binary Connectivity Matrix ........................................................................................................ 149
Table 14-1: Per kilometre Vehicle Operating Cost by Roughness (2015-16 prices) .................................................. 153
Table 14-2: Travel Time Costs for different modes (2015-2016) ................................................................................ 154
Table 14-4: Adopted Growth Rate of Motorized Vehicles .......................................................................................... 155
Table 14-5: Benefits Cost stream (Figure in mill. BDT) .............................................................................................. 156
Table 14-6: The results of economic analysis including sensitivity analysis ............................................................... 157
Table 15-1: Scoping Matrix and Evaluation of Predicted Social and Environmental Impacts..................................... 167
Table 16-1: Proposed Service Road Capacity Development ..................................................................................... 172

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FINAL
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Tree diagram of alternative selection ............................................................................................................. iii

Figure 2-1: Integrated Urban Traffic Model System Flowchart ..................................................................................... 14
Figure 3-1: Layout Plan of Proposed Mirpur DOHS-Matiaka Flyover ........................................................................... 15
Figure 3-2: Typical Cross-section of Existing Road Network at Kalshi ......................................................................... 16
Figure 3-3: Typical road section proposed in DPP ....................................................................................................... 17
Figure 3-4: Plan of Kalshi Intersection ......................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 3-5: Proposed Flyover Layout Plan ................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 3-6: Section of Flyover with Side Ramps and Roads ........................................................................................ 22
Figure 3-7: Section of Flyover with Main Ramps and Roads ....................................................................................... 22
Figure 3-8: Typical Section of Communication Duct and Pit ........................................................................................ 24
Figure 3-9: Layout plan of Sewerage lines (Existing and Extension) ........................................................................... 24
Figure 4-1: Car Registrations in Dhaka and Bangladesh ............................................................................................. 33
Figure 4-2: Motorized Vehicle Growing Trend in Dhaka ............................................................................................... 35
Figure 4-3: Growth of Buses and Minibuses in Dhaka ................................................................................................. 35
Figure 4-4: Forecasted Private Vehicle Amount for DMA area by RSTP. .................................................................... 36
Figure 4-5: Hourly Traffic Volumes in Dhaka, 1 January 2014 ..................................................................................... 36
Figure 5-1: Map of Proposed Study Area ..................................................................................................................... 39
Figure 5-2: Current Street Network and Physical Feature Map of Study Area ............................................................. 40
Figure 5-3: Existing Landuse Pattern of Study Area in DAP Database ........................................................................ 41
Figure 5-4: Proposed / Future Landuse Pattern of Study Area in DAP Database ........................................................ 42
Figure 5-5: Earthquake Zone of Bangladesh ............................................................................................................... 43
Figure 5-6: Forecasted Vehicle Growth at different Economic Growth Conditions ....................................................... 44
Figure 5-7: Most Densely Populated Wards of DSCC and DNCC in 2016-2017. ........................................................ 45
Figure 5-8: Most Connected Vehicular Traffic Areas with Greater Mirpur and Proposed Study Area. ......................... 49
Figure 6-1: Detail Approach and Method Statement of the Study ................................................................................ 50
Figure 6-2: Traffic Volume Survey Locations ............................................................................................................... 53
Figure 6-3: Location of Traffic Channelization and Intersection Survey ....................................................................... 54
Figure 7-1: Model Development Approach ................................................................................................................... 59
Figure 8-1: Traffic Volume Survey Locations ............................................................................................................... 75
Figure 8-2: Location of Traffic Channelization and Intersection Survey including Road segments for Travel Time and
Delay Survey ................................................................................................................................................................ 76
Figure 8-3: The Traffic Count Sheet ............................................................................................................................. 77
Figure 8-4: Hourly Based Traffic Screen Line Survey Data Sheet in MS Excel ........................................................... 78
Figure 8-5: Road Section Wise Calculated and Estimated ADT and AADT (in PCU Value) ........................................ 80
Figure 8-6: Overall Modal Composition ........................................................................................................................ 80
Figure 8-7: Vehicular Composition with Volume for Selected Road Segments ............................................................ 81
Figure 8-8: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for Banani Flyover to ECB Chattar Section .......................... 82
Figure 8-9: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for Banani Flyover To ECB Chattar Road Segment ............... 82

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Figure 8-10: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic of Banani
Flyover- ECB Chattar Section. ..................................................................................................................................... 83
Figure 8-11: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar Section ............................. 83
Figure 8-12: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar Road Segment ................... 84
Figure 8-13: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic of Banani
Flyover- ECB Chattar Section ...................................................................................................................................... 84
Figure 8-14: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabir Section ......................... 85
Figure 8-15: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi Road Segment ................ 85
Figure 8-16: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic of Kalshi
K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi Section. ................................................................................................................................... 86
Figure 8-17: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Section . 86
Figure 8-18: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Road
Segment ....................................................................................................................................................................... 87
Figure 8-19: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic of Kalshi Moar
to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Section. ................................................................................................................... 87
Figure 8-20: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12 Section .... 88
Figure 8-21: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12 Road
Segment ....................................................................................................................................................................... 88
Figure 8-22: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic of ECB
Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12 Section. ........................................................................................................... 89
Figure 8-23: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur DOHS Gate-
01 Section .................................................................................................................................................................... 89
Figure 824: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12 Road Segment
..................................................................................................................................................................................... 90
Figure 8-25: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic of Kalshi Moar
to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Section. ................................................................................................................... 90
Figure 8-26: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Banani Flyover to ECB Chattar Road Section .............. 91
Figure 8-27: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Chattar to Banani Flyover Road Section .............. 91
Figure 8-28: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar Road Section ................... 92
Figure 8-29: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Kalshi Moar to ECB Chattar Road Section ................... 92
Figure 8-30: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi Road Section ................ 92
Figure 8-30: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Pallabi to Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar Road Section ................ 93
Figure 8-30: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Road
Section ......................................................................................................................................................................... 93
Figure 8-31: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Kalshi Moar Road
Section ......................................................................................................................................................................... 93
Figure 8-32: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12 Road
Section ......................................................................................................................................................................... 94
Figure 8-33: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Mirpur 12 to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Road
Section ......................................................................................................................................................................... 94
Figure 8-34: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur DOHS Gate-01
Road Section................................................................................................................................................................ 95
Figure 8-35: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar
Road Section................................................................................................................................................................ 95

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Figure 8-36: Layout View of ECB Chattar Intersection ................................................................................................. 96
Figure 8-37: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of ECB Chattar ..................................................... 96
Figure 8-38: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting Road Segments of ECB
Chattar ......................................................................................................................................................................... 97
Figure 8-39: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting road sections at ECB Chattar
Junction ........................................................................................................................................................................ 97
Figure 8-40: Layout View of Kalshi Moar Intersection .................................................................................................. 98
Figure 8-41: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of Kalshi Moar ...................................................... 99
Figure 8-42: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting Road Segments of Kalshi
Moar ............................................................................................................................................................................. 99
Figure 8-43: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting road sections at Kalshi Moar
Junction ...................................................................................................................................................................... 100
Figure 8-44: Layout View of Kalshi Moar Intersection ................................................................................................ 100
Figure 8-45: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of Kalshi (K.I.H.S) Moar ...................................... 101
Figure 8-46: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting Road Segments of Kalshi
(K.I.H.S) Moar ............................................................................................................................................................ 101
Figure 8-47: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting road sections at Kalshi
(K.I.H.S) Moar Junction .............................................................................................................................................. 102
Figure 8-48: Layout View of Shagufta Moar / Chattar Intersection ............................................................................. 102
Figure 8-49: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of Shagufta Moar / Chattar Intersection.............. 103
Figure 8-50: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting Road Segments of Shagufta
Moar / Chattar Intersection ......................................................................................................................................... 103
Figure 8-51: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting road sections at Shagufta Moar
/ Chattar Intersection .................................................................................................................................................. 104
Figure 10-1: Traffic Demand Forecasting Procedure ................................................................................................. 111
Figure 10-2: External and Internal TAZ Boundary Delineation ................................................................................... 114
Figure 10-3: Time Segmentation Followed by consultant In Model Development ...................................................... 115
Figure 10-4: Trip Table Growth Rates Compared to Economic Indicators ................................................................. 116
Figure 11-1: Alternative selection process of Road way Improvement Alternative ..................................................... 134
Figure 11-2: Tree diagram of alternative selection ..................................................................................................... 137
Figure 11-3: Average Speed Over and Under Flyover ............................................................................................... 140
Figure 11-4: Queue Length at Grade Level (Under Flyover) ...................................................................................... 141
Figure 13-1: Most Connected Areas with Greater Mirpur area through Proposed Flyover Route Alignments ........... 147
Figure 13-2: Present and Future Transportation Routes from Greater Mirpur area after Construction of Proposed
Flyover ....................................................................................................................................................................... 150
Figure 13-3: Present Road User Travel Time (one way) along the Proposed Flyover Road Alignment ..................... 150
Figure 13-4: Simulated Future Travel Time (one way) after Opening the proposed Flyover ...................................... 151
Figure 13-5: Time Consumed by Traffic Congestion .................................................................................................. 151
Figure 15-1: Protected Area in and Around the Project Site ...................................................................................... 162
Figure 16-1: Geospatial Extent of Service Road Widening (60 Feet) and Capacity Development Proposals ............ 173
Figure 16-2: Proposed Road Alignment by DAP in the Study Area............................................................................ 174
Figure 16-3: Proposed Vehicular Channelization in Both T-Junction of Kalshi. ......................................................... 175

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LIST OF PHOTOS

Photo 1-1: Existing Physical Condition at Two Ends of Proposed Flyover .....................................................................3
Photo 3-1: Shatobarsho Chattar–Vehicles Obstructed Due To Right Turning Demand ............................................... 21
Photo 3-2: Shatobarsho Chattar–Long Tail Back of Vehicles ...................................................................................... 21
Photo 8-1: Traffic Counting By the Survey Team both at Day Time and Night hours................................................... 77

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LIST OF ABBREVIATION

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CHAPTER-01
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

1.1 GENERAL
This feasibility study and traffic impact assessment report on construction of Mirpur DOHS- Kalshi
Flyover from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS Gate -1 in order to improve the existing inadequate road
traffic condition as well as capacity assessment for future traffic demand. The feasibility study was
conducted by the APARAJITA Design Development Ltd., a consulting firm, in February, 2019. The
firm engaged a team of professional planning, safeguards and transport planning experts to conduct
the feasibility study. The team conducted a Reconnaissance Survey and a group on physical traffic
counting and observation survey, covering the entire stretch of the Road from ECB Chattar to Mirpur
DOHS Gate -01 including Kalshi and other surrounding areas. The feasibility study team examined
the technical viability of proposed 3.70 km Flyover form ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS by conducting
different elements of traffic modeling and future traffic impact assessment. The Special Work
Organization (West), Corps of Engineers, Bangladesh Army provided the relevant project
documents, maps and other available information related to the feasibility of the road. The feasibility
study report has been prepared on the basis of the above mentioned primary and secondary sources
of data and information.

1.2 BACKGROU OF THE PROJECT

1.2.1 RAPID URBANIZATION IN DHAKA
Urbanization is characterized by its inevitability and rapid pace in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh,
urbanization is closely correlated with urbanization – urban dwellers constitute about 28 percent of
the total population of the country, but their contribution to GDP is more than 45 percent. It has
many potential advantages and benefits. Different constraints work to preclude cities and towns from
reaping full benefits of urbanization. These constraints include, among others, gaps in urban
infrastructure and public service delivery. But there are also downsides of urbanization that need to
be grappled with. These include, inter alia, problem of insufficient housing, over-congestion,
mushroom growth of slums, unfavorable environmental and health outcomes. In view of this reality,
it is all the more important to work earnestly to harness the advantages of urbanization to generate
economic growth and prevent the negative externalities of congestion and clustering of people and
installations.

One of the marked features of urbanization in Bangladesh is increasing urban primacy, especially
that of Dhaka city. The Seventh Five Year Plan observes, “Urban primacy, by all counts, has been
on the rise in Bangladesh, in the last 30 years. Dhaka enjoys a very distinctive and unique single
primacy, comprising 44.26 per cent of the urban population, and 12.56 per cent of the total
population, in 2011. In fact, population of Dhaka has multiplied almost 6 times in this 30 year period.
In absolute numbers, Dhaka City is projected to reach 27.4 million by 2030, an increase of 86 percent
over the population in 2010. This implies an average annual growth rate of 4.3 percent. While other
cities will also grow, their proportion of the total urban population is expected to decline or remain
static. There is no indication in the time frame (up to 2030) of the UN Population Division’s 2014
(Revised) that the growth of Dhaka’s population will level-off or that the total population will stabilize.”

1.2.1.2 URBAN TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGE FOR DHAKA CITY

Traffic congestion has remained as the most persistent urban transportation challenge for Dhaka
city. The Seventh Plan has rightly observed: “Extreme traffic congestion is the main problem of urban
road space of big cities in Bangladesh. This problem is acute in Dhaka...”

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1.2.1.3 PROBLEMS OF URBAN ROAD SPACE AND THEIR CAUSES
On this, the observation of the Seven Plan is quite apposite. The Plan states: “The potential causes
of ever increasing chaos and congestion of urban traffic in Bangladesh are mainly attributed to,
among others, inadequate road infrastructure. The road space not only fails to meet the requirement
in most of the big cities, but does not cater to the needs of the pedestrians, cyclists, disabled or the
children. "

1.2.1.4 DEARTH OF ROAD SPACE IN DHAKA CITY

There is dearth of road space in Dhaka city. In general, it is said that a city should have 25% roads
of its total area. But Dhaka city has got only 8% road space. The excessive traffic load and dearth
of road space create a choking and clogged road scenario – a common sight in Dhaka city.

1.2.1.5 FUTURE TRAFFIC IMPROVEMENT STRATEGY

The Seventh Plan has succinctly stated the growing transport demand on city streets, lack of
expansion of road facilities, its impact in terms of congestion, deteriorating environment and harmful
effect on health and quality of urban life in these words: “Poor transport inhibits growth of cities and
makes them dysfunctional. This may have depressing effect on national economic growth. Rapid
urbanization in Bangladesh during the last few decades increased transport demand quite
significantly leading to manifold increases in the number of motorized and non-motorized vehicles
on city streets. The increase in the number of vehicles without concomitant expansion of road
facilities and improved traffic management has led to severe congestion and deterioration in urban
environment. Such trends are likely to continue as further urbanization takes place. Unless properly
checked and controlled, the consequent growth in congestion and pollution will adversely affect the
health and quality of life of urban residents. The cost to economic growth from the loss of excessive
time spent on commuting can be enormous.”

1.2.2 CONTEXT AND SETTING OF THE PROJECT

Inhabitants of greater Mirpur have to visit Airport Road and Gulshan, Banani, Baridhara, Uttara, etc.
through the Mirpur-10. There is no alternative road except Kachukhet road for going to Airport Road
from Section -10 of Mirpur area. For minimizing traffic volume in Cantonment through Kochukhet
area except road from Mirpur to Zia Colony there is no alternative road for directly proceeding to the
Cantonment which is situated at Section -12 of Mirpur. As traffic movement is to be maintained by
using the Mirpur area, the Army has been requesting for improvement of this road.

17 Engineering Construction Battalion (17 ECB) had conducted a preliminary feasibility study in
2016 to identify most suitable and sustainable future traffic solution for these concerned road
segments. Through that study, 17 ECB had identified several traffic capacity solution, those can be
applied for covering the existing demand. To meet the future demand, 17 ECB had proposed
constructing a new 2.815 km long flyover from ECB Chattar- Matikata road section to Mirpur DOHS
gate-01 via Kalshi Moar as the most desirable future traffic improvement solution.

1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECT

The proposed project is designed for constructing a new flyover or expressway from ECB Chattar
to Mirpur DOHS Gate -1, spanning 3.70 km road section and 2.815 km flyover section within it. The
major physical components of the proposed Mirpur DOHS- Kalshi Flyover are as follows:

i. Total length of the flyover including ramps – 2,315 meter

ii. Length of the ramps: One four lane ramp is 85.00 meter
iii. One two and half lane ramp 91.00 meter
iv. Two two lane ramps are 100meter &

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v. One and half lane ramp is 98 meter
vi. Total number of pier columns: 77
vii. Total number of PC girders: 260
viii. Total number of box girder spans: 4 spans on main arm and 4 spans on left arm

The implementation period of the project was initially planned from July 2016 to July 2018 and
currently extended up to December, 2019. After completion, the project will be transferred to the
revenue budget of the Dhaka North City Corporation.

If the project is implemented, it will help in reducing traffic jam and water logging making the
movement of vehicles and pedestrians faster and easier, creating convenience for the citizens,
augmenting the beauty of the city and improving the environment. The socio-economic condition of
the city dwellers of the project area would change for the better. The direct economic benefits of the
project would be reduction in operating and maintenance costs of vehicles and travel time through
mitigating traffic congestion and delays. Substantial benefit will be realized by existing mode of
transport through better operating environment which would enable them to attain higher speeds,
run more trips and improve cost recovery. Implementation of the project will also contribute to
improving traffic, reducing accidents and water logging and improvement of environment.

Photo 1-1: Existing Physical Condition at Two Ends of Proposed Flyover

1.4 RATIONALE OF PROPOSED ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

The vast area from Farmgate to Airport area, which is more than half portion of the Dhaka city, has
got only three east-west connecting roads namely Manik Mia Avenue, Bijoysharani and
Cantonment-Mirpur-10. These three east-west connecting roads are not sufficient to cater for the
demands of traffic movement. Besides, internal road of cantonment is the only east-west connecting
road for proceeding to Airport road from greater Mirpur. Severe traffic congestions used to plague
different intersections of the project road area. For that reason, the Road ECB Chattar to Mirpur
DOHS Gate -1 was constructed and following construction of this road, traffic jam was reduced
perceptibly. But with passage of time, continued growth of traffic has increasingly been putting
severe pressure on the existing road. Traffic is increasing persistently on this road network. If this
road fails to take full traffic, they will again divert to Farmgate-Airport road. This will compound the
already persistent traffic jam on this road.

To be specific, there is a mismatch between the widths of the existing roads: the width of the road
connecting the flyover of Cantonment with the ECB Chattar is more than that of the project road.
This mismatch, on the one hand, hinders smooth and fast movement of traffic between the roads
and along the project road (by delaying clearance of the traffic along the project road).

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The burgeoning growth of traffic volume has not only generated the usual traffic jam but also caused
increased incidence of road accidents, including fatal ones. To minimize the traffic jam as well as
accidents by facilitating smooth movement of traffic along this road, improvement of this road
through widening has become an urgent priority now. If the existing road traffic condition with
adequate capacity for future needs, it will make substantial contribution to strengthen the road
communication network of Mirpur Section 6, 7, 11, 12, Manikdi, Vasantak, Matikata, Balurghat, etc.
This will generate negative impacts in the form of wastage of time of thousands of people, additional
fuel and maintenance costs of vehicles and untold sufferings of the commuters. Therefore, the
proposed improvement of the road network and road infrastructure will help to remove the above
negative impacts on the city dwellers.
1.5 PROJECT VISION AND OBJECTIVES
The vision of the Project is anchored in facilitating a more efficient and sustainable road network,
servicing a wider spectrum of population. The Vision for the Project envisages supporting a
sustainable framework for urban infrastructure improvement that will encourage better traffic
movement and management.

The main objective of the Project is to provide better traffic flow facilities in Mirpur Area which will
fulfill the two base requirements –
a. A solution for existing traffic demand and reducing traffic congestion to a greater extent.
b. Sustainable traffic solution which will be capable for supporting existing and future traffic
capacity requirements with higher efficiency.

Location-wise, the flyover network occupies very important road sections and geographical position
in terms of both present and future traffic needs. Existing road segments are one of the key networks
for connecting north and south Dhaka after Hatirjheel Link road. These also serve as east-west
connecting road, which is very rare in entire Dhaka City. In addition, the project implementation
roads and surrounding areas are very much important for it’s geographical and economical context.
Mirpur- 10 and Pallabi area are considered as the second CBD (central business district or city
center) after Motijheel commercial area for it’s huger urbanization, demographic set up and values
of economic activities.

1.6 PROJECT EXECUTING AND IMPLEMENTING AGENCY

Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC) is the executing agency of the Project. 17 Engineering
Construction Battalion (17 ECB), Bangladesh Army is the implementing agency of the Project.
Commanding Officer (CO) of 17 Engineer Construction Battalion (17 ECB) will act as the Project
Director (PD) in the implementation / construction of the project.

The proposed project has a secure funding source from the government of Bangladesh (GOB). GOB
is financing this project after approving initial Detail Project Pro-forma (DPP) by April, 2018 and till
now through the Annual Development Plan (ADP) budget.

1.7 FEASIBILITY STUDY OF THE PROJECT

In 2016, 17 ECB had conducted a preliminary feasibility and solution finding study for entire project
area. That study was concluded with proposals of widening and improvement of existing 04 road at
Matikata and Cantonment area including 1.0 km (approx.) new flyover construction from ECB
Chattar to Kalshi. After starting the flyover construction activities in 2016, both appointed EPC
contractor and executing agency (17 ECB) has identified few potential future problem of existing
flyover design network. By providing direct landing facility in Kalshi Moar towards Pallabi, the
proposed flyover may create huge amount of unwanted traffic conflict of flows in Pallabi road and

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Kalshi. As a result, there may be a high chance of traffic congestion at the bottom of the proposed
flyover. 17 ECB had discussed this observation with higher authority and few renowned transport
experts in Bangladesh. By taking the expert opinion and recommendation, 17 ECB had redesigned
the proposed network to reduce potential chances of future traffic conflicts. In this process, 17 ECB
with their expert design team has extended the proposed flyover from Kalshi to Mirpur DOHS Gate-
01. The revised proposal of 17 ECB also includes 03 U-loop, 06 bus bays and few other physical
measures to prohibit right turning traffic to decrease the potential traffic conflict probability to
minimum or zero.

In February 2019, 17 ECB has appointed APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. (consultant) for
conducting a traffic impact assessment study including technical feasibility analysis for redesigned
or revised network of Mirpur DOHS- ECB Chattar Flyover.

a. Review of FS studies and Consultation with 17 ECB: The consultant’s first task will be
reviewing previously done all types of study, design reports, documents and all other related
materials to the project, provided by the project authority (17 ECB). In accordance to
consultation with 17 ECB, the consultant need to fix the priority aspects of this study.
b. Traffic Data Collection: The consultant will be provided with “Traffic Volume Data” for
designated or targeted and adjacent road sections by project authority. “Traffic Speed
Survey and Delay Survey” for pre-selected road junctions and sections need to be collected
thoroughly by primary investigation with the help of project authority and supervision of the
consultant.
c. Landuse Data Collection, Traffic O-D Zone Demarcation and Growth pattern Analysis:
The consultant have to demarcate “ Area of Traffic Influence” (AOTI) for the concerned zone
of proposed road infrastructure development by reviewing existing and expecting changed
landuse pattern through primary data collection and secondary data investigation (e.g DAP,
Transport or Roadway Master Plan of DTCB etc.). Based on existing and future landuse
pattern analysis, the consultant will draw traffic origin and destination pattern with regional
future traffic growth pattern for the proposed project zone.
d. Traffic Volume Segmentation and Scenario Development (4 Step Modeling): The
consultant have to develop inter zonal and intra-zonal traffic scenario for the whole project
area or AOI (Area of Interest) through 4 step modeling. The major considerations of this
modeling will be- Trip Generation, Modal Split, Pass by Trips or trip assignment and traffic
distribution
e. Roadway Capacity and Level of Service Analysis: The consultant will investigate traffic
and vehicular capacity of road junctions and section to define the level of service for each
section of proposed project. Traffic volumetric flow pattern with delay time and congestion
index also need to be defined for each junctions and road sections.
f. Future Growth and Level of Service (LOS) Analysis: Based on 4 Step modeling
(described in Item IV) the consultant will generate future traffic scenario (volume,
congestion, operating speed, delay etc.) for each road junctions and intersections.
Simultaneously, the consultant will define LOS for each future traffic projections to testify
the physical improvement or development requirements for each road sections and
junctions.
g. MCDA Analysis for Viable Future Development: The consultant will perform multi-criteria
decision analysis to identify the most viable physical development alternatives for those
required road junctions and sections (identified by performing item IV, V & VI) by considering
physical, social, environmental and other contexts.

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CHAPTER-02
STUDY FRAMEWORK AND APPROACH

2.1 GENERAL
This chapter briefly discusses feasibility study framework and approach including different aspects
of activities are performed both-desk based and field based, by the consulting team. To make every
aspects of this study understandable to the reader conceptual definition key activities, brief extent
of working methodology and incorporation strategy of various techniques of transportation modeling
/ analysis to this study, are given in brief in the following sections.
2.2 KEY CONCEPT AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE STUDY
Understanding the key concept and core vision of the project including goal of project executing
authority, was the priority to consulting team before planning and defining methodology of the study.
The key concept of the project are-
a. Improvement of existing vehicular traffic flow pattern and accessibility in Matikata, Kalshi
Pallabi, DOHS, Mirpur-12 and surrounding areas.
b. Reduce or alleviate unbearable traffic congestion in Matikata (Kalshi – ECB Chattar Road),
Mirpur DOHS area and Pallabi by providing uninterrupted express route way.
c. To enhance the existing traffic vehicular capacity and develop additional capacity to meet
the future intra-zonal and inter-zonal traffic or travel demand.

The core vision and aim of the project execution authority to achieve the above mentioned goals
and traffic improvement, are to identify the most feasible, viable and pragmatic solution which will
improve the current traffic problem in the project area as well as it can comply with future growth of
traffic.
The consulting team has formulated a comprehensive methodology to conduct this study in line with
the key concept of the project and vision of the project execution authority. A bundle of survey works
with desk-based different traffic analysis / modeling techniques has been structured in this
methodology. The detail methodology of the study are briefly discuss in Chapter-03. In the following
section key concepts and definition of field based and desk based activities are briefly discussed.

2.3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF FIELD BASED ACTIVITIES

Project or study area reconnaissance with different types of pre-planned survey works are the field
based activities which are carried by the consulting team during this study. These on field activities
are – reconnaissance survey, traffic volume survey, traffic infrastructure capacity survey, speed
survey, delay survey etc. The basic concept all these activities are given below.

2.3.1 RECONNAISSANCE SURVEY

Reconnaissance survey is the first and preliminary action or field visit to understand physical, social,
environmental and other important contexts and settings of project area or project influence area. It
also involves examine the key objectives of project or proposed development activities with
comparison real world situation. During reconnaissance survey, the key responsibilities of the survey
team are, understanding the physical context, identifying major challenges and opportunities for
execution of development proposals and others. Project execution plan or action plan (e.g. surveys
and investigation activities), must be designed based on the understandings of reconnaissance
survey. The consulting team has conducted site visit and reconnaissance at the initial stage of the
study. After accumulating the reconnaissance survey understanding and objective of the study, the
consulting team has designed and performed several on ground survey works.

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2.3.2 UNDERSTANDING SURVEY ACTIVITIES
Transportation surveys are carried out for the identification of current transportation system of
particular area or region including the points of future development, needs and priorities. Surveys
are much essential for recording the facts and finding out the ground realities of remote regions. It
is a grave reality that rural communities are facing problems related to accessibility, which seems
the biggest obstacle in their physical and socio-economic development.
The information and communication technologies have revolutionized overall scenario of
development sectors including transportation. This innovative trend has also modernized the
transportation survey techniques for the purpose of data collection (Fricker et al., 2005; Zhang,
2000). These modern survey tools/methods can be supportive in injecting the growth into remote
regions, which seems inevitable for the sustainable development of transportation sector (Leeuw,
2005). The choice of survey depends upon the availability of resources to the researchers and
surveyors (Czaja & Blair, 2005). Decision about the choice of survey for data collection can be
tempered by the limited availability of resources.
Following are the main guidelines explaining survey types with respect to their specific purpose of
data collection (Brog & Erl, 1980):
 For demographic data collection, structured questionnaires are very appropriate tools.
 For getting travel information, diaries are the better alternative for data collection.
 For land uses and transport data collection, official statistics or inventories are suitable
selections.
 For knowing the perceptions and attitudes of people about the transportation infrastructure
and overall situation, face-to-face in-depth interviews are appropriate.
 For obtaining the data about household, organizations and decision rules; the methodology
of group discussion is better choice.

Transportation planning can provide credible solutions to counter the problems related to
inaccessibility within remote regions. Therefore, in order to provide credible solutions to such
regions; surveys are required for recording the facts and judging the severity of various transport
related problems. At present wide range of surveys techniques are available to the surveyors or
transport planners including modern survey techniques for transportation data collection. Besides
modern surveys techniques, traditional surveys possessed great importance and these are being
used over the years for data collection. Conventional surveys can be subdivided into two major
categories, i.e. supply-side and demand-side surveys (Laboratory, 2002).
Supply side surveys are mostly quantitative in nature and target certain crucial indicators like growth
factors and cost. While demand-side surveys also consider quantitative data but largely focus on
qualitative aspect of data collection in order to describe the needs of users and their satisfaction.
Accessibility is the main indicator of this research, which may help in quantifying some qualitative
related elements.
The details of supply and demand-side surveys with their purposes and comments are depicted in
Tables 2-1 and 2-2. These tables are really helpful in understanding the purposes of different types
of surveys.

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Table 2-1: Supply-Side Surveys Different Categories of Supply-Side and Demand-Side
Surveys with Their Purposes and Indicators
Sector Surveys Purpose/Potential Output Indicators/Comments
Roads Inventory To verify the data of road published by For accuracy purpose, one
concerned authority. Inventory of rural can’t rely on the facts and
roads judged by different standards, figures of highway authority.
according to distance per km. Other data Paths and tracks are unlikely to
like street furniture and structure of road be recorded.
may also be collected.
Traffic Counts To know traffic congestion situation and to Measure as an estimate of
identify the intensity of traffic at peak/off Average Annual Daily Traffic
hours, daily and seasonal distributions (AADT). Extreme variations can
and composition on local roads. be experienced in daily counts
on low trafficked roads and as
well as seasonal variations.
Travel Speed To calculate delays and average speeds Measure the performance of
Surveys on local routes. transport service and road.

Road To establish the need for remedial works Development authority can be
Maintenance for road betterment. used for getting data about the
condition of road. For local
roads this task may be not easy
due to its geographic isolation.

Axe-load Surveys To know about the load on heavy vehicles This can be an input to road
and their impacts on road. pavement design.

Safety Statistics To search dangerous spots and nature of Accident rate and trends.
& Audits hazards on local and regional roads.

Road Operator Surveys To develop variety of data like route and Analyzing the quality of
Users fare structures, vehicles in use and their passenger/freight services for
characteristics, nature of regulatory and local community.
institutional issues.
Passenger Passenger loading surveys used to Clarifying how to improve
Loading & waiting measure vehicle speed and average output of vehicle productivity.
Time Surveys passenger journey distance and waiting While waiting time surveys are
time surveys used to measure frequency Performance Indicators of
of service and waiting time (level of transport service.
service).
Passenger To collect data about journey distance, Measure the performance of
Interviews comfort, time and fare. transport as judged by the user.

Source: Fouracre, 2001

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Table 2-2: Demand-Side Surveys Different Categories with Their Purposes and Indicators

2.3.3 SELECTED SPPLY-SIDE ROAD SURVEYS

Road surveys involved many survey techniques like road inventory and traffic count survey. Road
inventory provides suitable information to the residents about the name of road, its status, right of
way, length and destination that whether this road was discontinued or abandoned (Wathen &
Attorney, 1991). Traffic count survey is conducted to know the use of the road together with the type
of traffic and purpose. Main output of this survey is the provision of information about average traffic
flow and number of vehicles moving in both directions for 24 hours. Manual counts observed most
expedient method, but new technologies for this survey are also very much impressive (Leduc,
2008). The consulting team members had selected the following counting and observation based
surveys for this study based on the understanding of reconnaissance survey. List of conducted
survey by the consulting team are as follows
a. Traffic Volume Count Survey
b. Physical Road Capacity Survey and inventory Preparation
c. Road Intersection Survey
d. Road Intersection Traffic Que or Volume Survey
e. Intersection Based Traffic Flow Direction Observation
f. Speed Survey and
g. Traffic Delay Survey

2.4 APPROACH OF TRAFFIC STUDY AND PLANNING

The primary focus of transportation planning, until the past three decades or so, was to meet long-
term mobility needs by providing adequate transportation infrastructure supply. In such a supply-
oriented planning process, the main role of travel demand models was to predict aggregate travel

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demand for long-term socio-economic scenarios, transport capacity characteristics, and land-use
configurations.
Over the past three decades, however, because of escalating capital costs of new infrastructure,
and increasing concerns regarding traffic congestion and air-quality deterioration, the supply-
oriented focus of transportation planning has expanded to include the objective of addressing
accessibility needs and problems by managing travel demand within the available transportation
supply. Consequently, there has been an increasing interest in travel demand management
strategies, such as congestion pricing, that attempt to change transport service characteristics to
influence individual travel behavior and control aggregate travel demand.
In recent years, activity-based methods have received much attention and seen considerable
progress, which is adopted by the consulting team as preferred study approach for the entire
feasibility study. The follow-up sections discuss the salient aspects of the activity-based approach
by presenting a theoretical and policy-oriented comparison of the trip-based and activity-based
approaches generally used for transportation planning.

2.4.1 TRIP-BASED VERSUS ACTIVITY-BASED APPROACHES

The fundamental difference between the trip-based and activity-based approaches is that the former
approach directly focuses on “trips” without explicit recognition of the motivation or reason for the
trips and travel. The activity-based approach, on the other hand, views travel as a demand derived
from the need to pursue activities and focuses on “activity participation behavior”. The underlying
philosophy is to better understand the behavioral basis for individual decisions regarding
participation in activities in certain places at given times (and hence the resulting travel needs). This
behavioral basis includes all the factors that influence the why, how, when and where of performed
activities and resulting travel. Among these factors are the needs, preferences, prejudices and habits
of individuals (and households), the cultural/social norms of the community, and the travel service
characteristics of the surrounding environment.
Another difference between the two approaches is in the way travel is represented. The trip-based
approach represents travel as a mere collection of “trips”. Each trip is considered as independent of
other trips, without considering the inter-relationship in the choice attributes (such as time,
destination, and mode) of different trips. On the other hand, the activity-based approach precludes
illogical mode-trip chains by using “tours” as the basic elements to represent and model travel
patterns. Tours are chains of trips beginning and ending at a same location, say, home or work. The
tour-based representation helps maintain the consistency across, and capture the interdependency
(and consistency) of the modeled choice attributes among, the trips of the same tour. In addition to
the tour-based representation of travel, the activity-based approach focuses on sequences or
patterns of activity participation and travel behavior (using the whole day or longer periods of time
as the unit of analysis). Such an approach can address travel demand management issues through
an examination of how people modify their activity participations.

The third major difference between the two approaches relates to the level of aggregation. In the
trip-based approach, most aspects of travel (number of trips, modal split, etc.) are analyzed at an
aggregate level. The study area is divided into several spatial units labeled as Traffic Analysis Zones
(TAZ). Then, the total numbers of trip exchanges are estimated for each pair of TAZs by each travel
mode and by each route, during each coarsely defined time of day. Consequently, trip-based
methods accommodate the effect of socio-demographic attributes of households and individuals in
a very limited fashion, which limits the ability of the method to evaluate travel impacts of long-term
socio-demographic shifts. The activity-based models, on the other hand, have the ability to relatively
easily accommodate virtually any number of decision factors related to the socio-demographic
characteristics of the individuals who actually make the activity-travel choices, and the travel service
characteristics of the surrounding environment. Thus the activity-based models are better equipped
to forecast the longer-term changes in travel demand in response to the changes in the socio-

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demographic composition and the travel environment of urban areas. Further, using activity-based
models, the impact of policies can be assessed by predicting individual-level behavioral responses
instead of employing trip-based statistical averages that are aggregated over coarsely defined
demographic segments.

2.4.2 ADOPTING ACTIVITY BASED STUDY APPROACH

Given the behavioral basis and conceptual advantages, the activity-based approach can potentially
offer a better ability to evaluate a wide variety of transportation policy initiatives that cannot be either
analyzed, or may not be accurately analyzed, using a traditional trip-based framework. For example,
trip-based models have very limited ability to predict traveler responses to travel demand
management strategies such as congestion pricing, because of the highly aggregate treatment of
the time-of-day dimension, and the ignorance of temporal linkages across different trips. Activity-
based models are better suited to model the impact of congestion pricing strategies because they
capture individual responses to tolls including the potential mode shifts, departure timing shifts, and
the potential substitution patterns among different dimensions of travel (mode, timing, etc). In
addition to the incorporation of temporal linkages among various trips (across the day) of an
individual, the activity-based modeling approach facilitates the accommodation of the linkages
across the activity participation decisions and travel patterns of different individuals in a household.

2.4.3 ACTIVITY-BASED TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING SYSTEMS

This section provides an overview of the activity-based travel forecasting systems in the literature.
Most of the models developed to date can be classified into one of two modeling approaches:
(1) Utility maximization-based econometric model systems, and
(2) Rule-based computational process model systems.
However, it is important to note that the above two approaches have been neither exclusive nor
exhaustive. The consulting team member has followed the “Utility maximization-based
econometric model system” for this study. The modeling approaches and the models within this
selected approach are discussed below.

2.4.3.1 UTILITY MAXIMIZATION-BASED ECONOMETRIC MODEL SYSTEM

The underlying theory behind utility maximization-based modeling systems comes from the
economic theories of consumer choice (e.g., Becker 1965) that individuals make their activity-travel
decisions to maximize the utility derived from the choices they make. These model systems usually
consist of a series of utility maximization-based discrete choice models (i.e., multinomial logit and
nested logit models) that are used to predict several components of individuals’ activity-travel
decisions. In addition to such utility maximization-based model components, several model systems
employ other econometric structures, including hazard-based duration structures, and ordered
response structures to model various activity-travel decisions. In all, these model systems employ
econometric systems of equations (most of which are utility maximization-based) to capture
relationships between individual-level socio-demographics and activity-travel environment attributes
on the one hand and the observed activity-travel decision outcomes on the other.
This approach is very amenable to the development of operational activity-based travel forecasting
systems. In this section, the consultant provides an overview of a representative sample of such
travel forecasting systems that are either fully developed or under development for practical
transportation planning purposes. The model systems include:

A. Activity-Travel Forecasting System of the Sacramento Activity-based Model

The activity-travel forecasting system model consists of an econometric micro-simulation system
with a three-tier hierarchy of:
(1) Day-level activity pattern choice models (or, simply, pattern-level choice models),
(2) Tour-level choice models, and

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(3) Trip/Stop-level choice models.
Each of the models in this hierarchy consists of a series of econometric choice models, as outlined
in Table 2-3. For all these individual model components, Table 2-3 lists the model name and the
output of the model, the econometric structure, and the set of choice alternatives. As can be
observed from the table, each of the activity-travel choices is modeled using either a multinomial
logit or a nested logit structure. The reader will note here that the models are numbered hierarchically
in the table to represent the sequence in which the activity-travel decisions. The choice outcomes
from models higher in the hierarchy (assumed to be of higher priority to the decision-maker) are
treated as known in the lower level models.

Table 2-3: Travel Forecasting System of Activity-based Model

As can be observed from the table, the pattern-level models consist of models numbered 1.1 (the
daily activity pattern model) and 1.2 (the number of tours model). These models predict: (a) the
occurrence (and the number) of home-based tours (i.e., tours that originate and end at home)
specifically for each of the following seven activity purposes during a day: work, school, escort,
personal business, shopping, meal, and social/recreational, and (b) the occurrence of additional
stops/trips that may occur (in other tours) for these seven purposes.
The tour-level models (numbered 2.1, 2.3, 2.4 and 2.5 in the table) predict the primary destination
(i.e., the destination of the primary stop for which this tour is made), travel mode, time-of-day of
travel (i.e., time of arrival at, and time of departure from primary destination), and the number of
additional stops by purpose (other than the primary stop) for all tours. Tour-level models also include
a work-based tour (i.e., a tour that originates and ends at work) generation model (numbered 2.2)
that predicts the number (and purpose) of work-based tours for each home-based work tour
predicted by models 1.1 and 1.2. The stop-level models predict the stop location (or destination),
mode choice, and time-of-day of travel for each of the stops (other than the primary stops) generated
in the previous steps.

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Among the models listed in Table 2-3, the consultant team has used few models- as 1.1, 1.2, 2.2,
and 2.5 together form the activity and travel generation models, which provide as outputs a list of all
the activities, tours, and trips generated for the person-day. These activities, tours, and trips are
scheduled using the other tour-level and trip-level models, which can also be labeled as the
scheduling models. The scheduling models determine the when (time-of-day), where (destination),

B. The Time Dimension of Activity-Travel Behavior

The appropriate treatment of the time dimension of activity-travel behavior is perhaps the most
important prerequisite to accurately forecasting activity-travel patterns. This is because time is the
main backdrop/setting within which the entire activity-travel decision-making takes place (see Kurani
and Lee-Gosselin, 1996). Because of the treatment of time as a building block for activity-travel
patterns, the following temporal aspects of activity-travel behavior have received significant
attention: (1) Time-use in activities, and (2) Activity-travel timing and scheduling.

C. Time-Frame of Activity-Travel Analysis

Most of the earlier activity-travel behavior studies have focused on a single day as the time period
for analysis of activity-travel patterns. Such single day analyses make an implicit assumption of
uniformity and behavioral independence in activity processes and decisions from one day to the
next. Clearly, there may be substantial day-to-day dependence as well as variation in activity-travel
patterns. Further, many activities (such as grocery shopping or recreational pursuits) are likely to
have a longer cycle for participation. Thus, single day analyses cannot reflect multi-day shifts in
activity-travel patterns in response to policy actions such as workweek compression.

D. Connecting Long-term and Short-term Choices

Most of the travel demand models treat the longer-term choices concerning the housing (such as
residential tenure, housing type, and residential location), vehicle ownership and employment
choices (such as enter/exit labor market and employment type) as exogenous inputs. Consequently,
the land-use (in and around which the individuals live, work and travel to) is treated as exogenous
to travel demand models. In such cases, the possibility that households can adjust with combinations
of short- and long-term behavioral responses to land-use and transportation policies is
systematically ignored (Waddell, 2001). A significant increase in transport costs, for example, could
result in a household adapting with any combination of daily activity and travel pattern changes.

E. Demand-supply interactions
The end use of travel forecasting models is, in general, the prediction of traffic flow conditions under
alternative sociodemographic, land use, and transportation level-of-service scenarios. The traffic
flow conditions, which are usually predicted after a traffic assignment procedure, are a result of the
interactions between the individual-level demand for travel, and the travel options and the level-of-
service (or the capacity) supplied by the transportation system. It is important to consider such
demand-supply interactions for accurate predictions of activity-travel behavior, and the resulting
traffic flow conditions. Further, since the travel level-of-service (and hence the available
transportation capacity) varies with the temporal variation in travel demand, and the demand for
travel is, in-turn, dependent on the transportation level-of-service, the interactions may be time-
dependent and hence dynamic in nature. Thus, it is important to consider the dynamics of the
interactions between travel demand and the supply of transportation capacity. See Lin et al. (2007)
for a review of the literature on the integration of transportation demand and supply analysis, and
for a development of an integrated activity-based travel forecasting and dynamic traffic assignment
modeling system.
2.4.3.2 DEVELOPING INTEGRATED URBAN MODELING SYSTEM
In view of the preceding discussion, travel demand models should be integrated with other models
that can forecast, over a multi-year time frame, the socio-demographic processes and the housing
and employment market processes. During reconnaissance survey, the consulting team members

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had observed unban complexity and thrive of huge economic activities and rapid urbanization in the
proposed project area. These multidimensional changes (e.g. physical, social, landuse,
demography, economy etc.) normally happens in Dhaka without having any specific rate, ratio, trend
or rule. So the consulting team has used activity based approach to develop urban traffic model
system for the proposed project area.
The consultant team members were required to develop an integrated model system, should be
able to capture the above discussed supply-demand interactions in the housing, employment, and
transportation markets. A conceptual framework of such a system is given in Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1: Integrated Urban Traffic Model System Flowchart

2.5 SUMMARY
The consultant team has adopted activity-based approach for developing integrated urban traffic
model for the proposed flyover project area and it’s surrounding areas. This chapter discusses the
fundamentals of the activity-based approach to travel demand modeling, and presents an overview
of various activity-based travel forecasting systems. Further, the chapter discusses the recent
progress in understanding the time, space, and inter-personal interaction aspects of activity-travel
behavior and identifies future research directions. Finally, the chapter emphasizes the need to
integrate activity-travel forecasting systems with other systems to design comprehensive and
integrated urban modeling systems.

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CHAPTER-03
PROJECT DESCRIPTION

3.1 BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT SCENARIO

The proposed Mirpur DOHS-Matikata flyover extents almost 2.815 km from Mirpur DOHS Gate-01
to Matikata Road via Kalshi Intersection. The total project road length is 3.7 km (form Mirpur DOHS
Gate-01 to ECB Chattar Intersection) and it forms a vital interface between east and west sides of
northern part of Dhaka city. It has thus a substantial influence area spanning across developed
areas such as Cantonment, Uttara and Mirpur and under developed areas such as Ahalia,
Dholipara, Baunia, Balurghat, Manikdi, Matikata, Bhasantek etc. The under developed areas are
destined for a very rapid development once the so-called 4-road project of DNCC is implemented.
As the areas develop tremendous volume of traffic will generate for the project road. It is essential
to visualize this development and plan the project road accordingly. Figure 3-1 shows the detail
layout plan of proposed flyover.

Figure 3-1: Layout Plan of Proposed Mirpur DOHS-Matiaka Flyover

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3.2 PROJECT PLANNING
Approved detail project pro-forma (DPP) by Bangladesh Government stipulates that DNCC and 17
Engineer Construction Brigade will implement the project. Upon taking up the project for
implementation, 17ECB felt that success of the project vision of the DPP can be realized only by
looking at the present and projected traffic and development scenario of the influence area by
adopting a holistic approach. In other words, the project is much more than solution of a section of
road and a congested intersection. Soon after the DPP stipulated project is implemented, the
scenario will drastically change with generated traffic being attracted to the subject road and flyover.
Furthermore, with implementation of planned 4-road communication network development
comprising improved and new roads connecting north-south and east-west destinations a
tremendous volume of traffic is likely to be generated for the subject road. The stretch of road from
Kalshi intersection to Mirpur DOHS will be especially attractive for Uttara 3rd phase and Mirpur
Cantonment traffic, especially with commissioning of metro rail line and Uttara South station.
Ongoing developments such as multi-story apartment buildings of National Housing Authority,
Shagufta residential area, Shanta Properties and other private development projects line the already
densely populated stretch on both sides of the road. Need for closing the Shatobarsho roundabout
and channelization of traffic to the planned three at grade U-loops will also impose extra load on the
road. Due to all these reasons, it is realized that capacity of the improved and widened road in this
stretch will soon be exhausted. This forms the case for a second level of road to augment the six
lanes at ground level.
A Feasibility study before the DPP preparation was conducted on April 2016. The study was done
two years back. The present appointed consultant has recently conducted traffic survey at four
locations of the proposed road. The above projection also calls for a review of the planned road side
facilities and drainage requirements etc. Improved road safety measures in view of the residential
character of surrounding area are also necessary. More bus stands with passenger sheds, public
toilets, police box etc. are desirable to make an integrated and balanced transportation system.

3.3 REVISION OF PROJECT PLAN

3.3.1 INITIAL DPP
Existing road has four lanes with a median catering to both way traffic. The road width is 18.3m
including 1.5m wide footpaths on both sides and 1.0m wide median. A typical section of the road is
shown below:

Figure 3-2: Typical Cross-section of Existing Road Network at Kalshi

When commissioned about 8 years ago the road fulfilled a much needed demand of east-west link,
which the city seriously lacks. It soon became an extremely popular route for people of western part
of Dhaka travelling to Airport and the north as well as the newly developing eastern areas such as

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Purbachal. Commissioning of Mirpur-Airport Road Flyover boosted the traffic of this route drastically
by creating vertical bypass of the Cantonment area. Volume of traffic increased day by day. Soon,
capacity of the road, especially the staggered intersection at Kalshi, became exhausted and traffic
congestion has exceeded tolerable limits. Traffic management through the road has been a
headache for the concerned authority with various contingency measures being fruitlessly
implemented. To address the problem, DNCC proposed to improve the traffic movement system by
increasing road width to three lanes each way and implementing grade separation of conflicting
traffic streams at Kalshi intersection. DPP for this work involved widening of the at grade road from
ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS gate via Kalshi and Shatobarsho intersections. The road width is
proposed as 34.60 meter with a 1.0 wide median flanked on both sides by 11.30 meter three lane
carriageway, 3.0 meter cycle track, 0.3 scupper drain, 2.0 meter footpath with RC pipe drain
underneath and brick manhole chamber, and 0.2 meter soft shoulder. Typical road section proposed
in DPP is presented below:

Figure 3-3: Typical road section proposed in DPP

Details of the proposed flyover as in first DPP are as follows:

 Total length of the flyover including ramps – 869.38 meter
 Length of the ramps: Two 4-lane ramps are176.68 meter& 175.46 meter long
 One 2-lane ramp is174.84 meter long
 Making a total ramp length = 526.98 meter
 Total number of pier columns: 10
 Total number of PC girders: 40
 Total number of box girder spans: 3 spans on main arm and 4 spans on left arm

DPP also included the following ancillary works:

 Widening of existing bridge over a canal to match with the widened road
 Road surface water drainage system by RC pipe drain under footpath on both sides of road.
The pipe drain is serviced by brick manhole pits.

3.3.2 RATIONALE OF REVISING DPP

A. Increased of Traffic Volume
A Feasibility study before the DPP preparation was conducted on April 2016. The study was done
two years back. The present appointed consultant has recently conducted traffic survey at four
locations of the proposed road. These are ECB Chattar, Kalshi intersection, Kalshi School

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intersection and points. Two working days video traffic count survey was performed at each of these
points during 15th to 20th March 2018. Tabulated result of the counting is presented in Appendix B.
Present AADT is calculated by this traffic survey is way higher than the first feasibility study
projection.
The present day traffic is expected to increase many fold due to generated traffic with changed land
use pattern. Salient aspects of land use and traffic generation are listed below.
 The present influence area of the project includes some under developed areas which are
rapidly developing. The pace of development of the area will accelerate with implementation
of the planned four-road project.
 The road forms part of and supplements the four-road project for development of
communication network of the area.
 The road leads to important and strategic institutions such as Military Institute of Science
and Technology (MIST), National Defense College (NDC), Staff College, Bangladesh
University of Professionals (BUP), Mirpur Public School and College etc.
 Rapidly increasing road users due to growing number of hospitals/clinics, market and
commercial building etc. lining both sides of the road.
 Future traffic demand generated by MRT Line-6 and National Housing Authority’s 5000 –
6000 flats.

B. Absence of East-West continuous road

There is not a single continuous main road in east-west direction in Dhaka city. The roads which
exist in this direction are all connecting roads or link roads. Discontinuity of the roads results in a
huge number of T- and staggered junctions in road layout of the city. This makes through movement
of vehicles difficult and puts extra load on intersections. East-west connections have suffered due
to fragmented responsibilities of road planning and construction. East-west links are also intervened
by many barriers such as large cantonment area including the former and the new airport sites, and
large tracts of low lying flood prone land. Absence of east-west connection has become the major
problem of road network of Dhaka with present requirements being met by relatively narrow and
poorly aligned roads. These are far below the required standard in terms of capacity, speed and
level of service. Insufficient east-west connection leads to the need to travel longer distances, there
by overloading existing roads unnecessarily.
The proposed road has potential to form a vital and major east-west link provided it is designed with
sufficient width, conflict free flow of traffic, less number of intersections, grade separation at
congested intersections and strategic road sections, etc.

C. Right Turn Traffic Behaviour at Kalshi Intersection

Kalshi intersection is a complex staggered junction of four roads meeting in two closely spaced T-
junctions with conflicting traffic demand. The present at grade intersection allows right turn
movement of all traffic streams converging at the location. This creates tremendous traffic gridlock
and tailbacks. Besides, the high demand west bound traffic stream from Pallabi is diverted via
Ceramic Road to create right turning demand and congestion at Shatobarsho Chattar eventually
transforming to a left turning stream at Kalshi intersection. The detour has merely shifted the
congestion to other otherwise uncongested road sections. To solve the immediate problem, a short
flyover over Kalshi intersection has been proposed to achieve grade separation of major right turning
streams. A Y-shaped flyover layout with different legs widths is proposed. Main arm of the flyover is
16.12 meter wide with four-lane divided carriageway. This arm is terminated immediately after Kalshi
intersection before reaching Shatobarsho Chattar. Left arm of the flyover with 6.7 meter width carries
one-way traffic over the intersection towards Pallabi Road. Plan of Kalshi intersection and layout of
proposed flyover are shown below:

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Figure 3-4: Plan of Kalshi Intersection

Figure 3-5: Proposed Flyover Layout Plan

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D. Rapid Development of Surrounding Areas
Area surrounding the project road on both sides is largely under developed low lying flood prone
land due to absence of proper road network. With construction of this road rapid land filling and
development activities are ongoing. The resulting growth in traffic demand must be addressed
adequately in order for the project road to be effective.
 Development of the road side area is largely high rise residential and commercial in nature.
Interior areas are still residential in character.
 Growth in habitation and development are taking place both on private and public fronts.
Public sector developments largely include massive residential projects of multi-story
apartment buildings. Commercial developments are mostly in the private sector.
 National Housing Authority’s residential developments, Mirpur DOHS, Army institutions,
Uttara 3rd phase are all planned developments with well laid internal road network. If the
arterial roads are not planned adequately with sufficient capacity and LOS these
developments will lose their planned character and fail their purpose.

F. Lack of Continuous Functional Road

There are only 107 kilometers road in Dhaka city for which width is more than 24 meters. Among
them Airport Road and Mirpur Road are continuous north-south roads. All the other roads both north-
south and east-west are discontinuous and fragmented.
 If developed properly with adequate capacity the proposed road will be the next continuous
functional roadthat too in the much needed east-west direction.
 The road has the potential to be extended to Mirpur Beri Bandh and eventually form an east-
west link between the two north-south arterial roads viz. Airport Road and Mirpur Road.

G. Presence of Large Number of Staggered Junctions

For the unplanned and piecemeal development of road network, there are many unwarranted
staggered T-junctions formed in the main road. In this type of junction, a vehicle is forced to make
two successive right turns within a short segment of road and thereby make junction operation very
complicated. The developments taking place on either side of the project road demand access from
the main road at many locations. If not planned properly with necessary grade separation these will
create staggered junctions and cause congestion.

H. Right Turn Restriction

Right turning demands at intersections and side roads are the major cause of traffic congestion and
lowering of level of service. In order for the road to be effective and functional, right turning
movements must be restricted and planned by special treatment.
 It is necessary to eliminate all right turning movements into the main road by providing a
continuous and sealed median between treated right turning points.
 The median is uninterrupted from ECB Chattar to Kalshi intersection. Right turning
movements at Kalshi intersection and Kalshi School intersection are grade separated to
eliminate major conflicting right turning demands.
 Presently Shatobarsho Chattar is a cross road with roundabout which suffers tremendous
traffic congestion. Two pictures of this roundabout depicting typical traffic scenario are given
below.

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Photo 3-1: Shatobarsho Chattar–Vehicles Obstructed Due To Right Turning Demand

Photo 3-2: Shatobarsho Chattar–Long Tail Back of Vehicles

It is absolutely necessary to provide a continuous median from Kalshi intersection to Uttara link near
DOHS and eliminate the cross road junction at Shatobarsho Chattar. Right turning demands in this
section of road are to be met by providing three at grade U-loops strategically spread along the road.
The point of Uttara link near DOHS will be designed with a roundabout for Uttara bound traffic to
make right turn.
The treatment of at grade road in the above manner demands reduction of at grade traffic by grade
separation of through traffic. Extension of the flyover with reduced width thus becomes necessary.

3.3 DETAIL PROJECT PROPOSALS IN RDPP

3.3.1 INCREASE OF FLYOVER LENGTH
As justified in the last section, road traffic in the section from Kalshi intersection to Uttara link near
DOHS will increase tremendously after the planned treatments of at grade road and development
of the influence area. For the U-loops and roundabout at Uttara link to function efficiently some of
the road traffic with no turning demand needs to be diverted from the at grade road. The most

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efficient way to achieve this target is to separate the straight going traffic from the rest by grade
separation by a flyover. It is planned that central portion of the flyover terminating after negotiating
Kalshi intersection will be continued to carry straight going traffic. An estimate of traffic volume with
this need of travel reveals that a single lane each way in an undivided flyover will be sufficient to
carry the relevant traffic stream. To provide for breakdown, an undivided carriageway width of 9.15m
equivalent to 2½ lanes should be adequate. The extension of DPP planned flyover by this narrower
flyover to a point beyond the new Uttara link is suggested.
Details of the proposed flyover as in RDPP are as follows:

 Total length of the flyover including ramps – 2,815 meter

 Length of the ramps: One four lane ramp is 85.00 meter
 One two and half lane ramp 91.00 meter
 Two two lane ramps are 100meter &
 One one and half lane ramp is 98 meter
 Total number of pier columns: 77
 Total number of PC girders: 260
 Total number of box girder spans: 4 spans on main arm and 4 spans on left arm

Revised layout and typical sections of the flyover are shown below.

Figure 3-6: Section of Flyover with Side Ramps and Roads

Figure 3-7: Section of Flyover with Main Ramps and Roads

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3.3.2 ADDTIONAL TRAFFIC CAPACITY AND FACILITY DEVELOPMENT
A. Introduction of 3 at-grade U-loops
To channelize right turning movements it is proposed to seal off the Shatobarsho Chattar
intersection and provide a continuous median from Kalshi intersection to Uttara link. Alternative
arrangement for right turning has to be made at strategic locations. Vehicles joining the main road
from western side will be directed towards north. Their right turning need for going south will be met
by 2 U-loops, one just after descending ramp of main flyover and the other just before Uttara link
point, both facing south. As demand for going north by vehicles joining from the east is going to be
limited, only one U-loop is provided just after descending ramp of the main flyover, facing north.

B. Utilization of full right of way with RE wall

In order to minimize land acquisition and maximize utilization of available land, embankment top is
proposed to be spread over the entire right of way. This means that where embankment top will be
higher than the adjacent ground, retaining wall will be necessary. Reinforced earth (RE) wall is an
economical and faster construction choice for the retaining structure. This method is also preferable
to reduce land acquisition cost of the project. Where existing right of way is sufficient, the proposed
approach will ensure that entire Government land will be included in the road with no scope for future
illegal encroachment.

C. Additional Bus Bay and Passenger Shed

Quality of a road improves significantly with creation of public facilities. DPP considered one bus
bay for the entire road. In view of length of the road and diverse route of buses six bus bays with
passenger sheds are proposed. The bus bays are strategically placed to cater to users’
transportation needs. The passenger sheds are adequately equipped with seating arrangement.

D. Police Box
There was a single police box for traffic police in the DPP. Police department has requested for a
police box for beat police also. In view of law and order and crime control needs, two police boxes
to be built under the flyover at Kalshi intersection are proposed in the RDPP.

E. Public Toilet
As part of public facility, one male and one female public toilet blocks are provided under the flyover
near bus bay at Kalshi intersection.

F. W-beam guardrail protection below flyover

To prevent undisciplined road crossing by pedestrian landscape below the flyover is to be protected
by W-beam guardrail barrier.

G. Communication Duct
With rapid development of communication technology, provision of overhead or underground
communication lines is a necessity. In order to prevent cluttering of overhead lines and future road
digging for buried lines, it is planned to install underground communication ducts with intermittent
inspection pits. The communication duct will run on one side of the road for the entire 3.7 km length.
It will have sufficient capacity to carry fibre optic and metallic lines of private operators as well as
BTCL. A typical cross section of duct and pit is shown below:

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Figure 3-8: Typical Section of Communication Duct and Pit

H. Removal and Reinstallation of DNCC Sewerage Line

DNCC has to remove a length of sewer line (370m) and replace it by an RC pipe drain with brick
inspection pits for a length of 1050m from ECB Chattar to bridge over the canal. This is an addition
to drainage system proposed in DPP. A typical layout plan is next page:

Figure 3-9: Layout plan of Sewerage lines (Existing and Extension)

I. Capacity Enhancement of Road Side Drain

Road surface runoff was originally proposed to be drained through buried RC pipe line with brick
inspection pits. Increased width of road and distance to outfall necessitate enhanced drainage
capacity with larger drain lines. A two meter wide RC box drain with intermittent manholes is
proposed. Top of this drain will double as the footpath with no additional cost.

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CHAPTER-04
URBAN TRAFFIC SYSTEM IN DHAKA
4.1 GENERAL
Dhaka the capital city of Bangladesh having a population of over 17 million, has a rudimentary public
transport system comprising cycle rickshaws, para-transit, taxis and buses. The rapid rise in
population along with increased and versatile urban land use patterns have generated considerable
travel demand as well as numerous transport problems in the city. The capacity of the road is
significantly reduced by poor operating conditions, inadequate traffic management and efficient road
use. The number of privately owned cars, on the other hand, is increasing day by day because of
undeveloped public transport system and lack of door to door services within public transport
network. Major shares of road space remain occupied by small capacity vehicles. Buses being the
only mode of mass transit available in Dhaka they carry about 1.9 million passengers per day. The
share of mass transit is low, 27.0 percent of vehicular trips where walking and other non-motorized
travels still remain as the dominant travel modes.

In this chapter, an attempt has been made to provide an overview of the public and private
transportation system in metro Dhaka in terms of the key issues, characteristics and improvement
options.
4.2 HISTORICAL GROWTH OF DHAKA CITY
Dhaka has been a prominent urban center since its founding more than 400 years ago during the
Mughal rule. After independence in 1971, its population increased rapidly and pressure on the
limited urban land increased manifold. The result has been gross shortage of land for housing and
other urban activities. The economy of Dhaka city has experienced remarkable growth as major
institutions, industries, trade and commerce have taken root. The government's macroeconomic
policies have supported the concentration of economic activity in and around Dhaka, which today
contains nearly one-third of the urban population of Bangladesh.
Bangladesh's urban population has increased exponentially. In 1951 the urban population was about
1.83 million or roughly 4.4% of the national total (in the East Pakistan). Today it is about 55.5 million,
or 34.3% of Bangladesh's total population. Dhaka city has accounted for a major share of this
growth. In 1981, the city had an area of 749 square km with 3.45 million population (BBS, 1981). In
1990, its administrative area had increased to 906 square km and its population to 6.62 million. By
2001 Greater Dhaka had an area of 1,528 square km and nearly 10 million population. At 2019, the
metropolitan population is estimated over 18 million and Dhaka retains its share of the national urban
total (Table 4-1).

Table 4-1: The Primacy of Dhaka in the National and National Urban Context
Year Population of Dhaka National Population (%) Urban Population (%)
(million)
1990 6.62 6.2 31.1
1995 8.33 7.0 32.0
2000 10.28 7.8 32.9
2005 12.33 8.6 32.1
2010 14.73 9.7 32.0
2015 17.59 11.0 32.0
Source: UN, 2015

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4.3 POPULATION GROWTH IN DHAKA- PRESENT AND FUTURE
Migration from rural areas of the country to urban Dhaka is a strong contributor to the population
growth. This rural migration accounted for 60% population growth throughout the 1960s and 1970s.
While this growth has slowed since that time, Dhaka continues to show steady growth, with
estimates placing the 2020 population at almost 21 million, while 2030 may see as many as 27.3
million residents. The fast-growing population has already put tremendous stress on the city, as
evidenced by its high rates of poverty, and future concerns include increasing congestion, a higher
rate of unemployment and inadequate infrastructure. The following Table 4-2 shows the growth
pattern of population regarding Dhaka Metropolitan area from 1955 to 2019 (present). It also
presents future forecasted population for next 20 years (from 2020 to 2040).

Table 4-2: Historical Population Growth Trend and Forecasted Future Population for Dhaka
Year Population Growth Rate (%) Growth
2040 34,653,848 2.11 % 3,420,197
2035 31,233,651 2.15% 3,157,991
2030 28,075,660 2.63% 3,422,796
2025 24,652,864 3.25% 3,647,004
2020 21,005,860 3.56% 722,308
2019 20,283,552 3.62% 2,686,375
2015 17,597,177 3.62% 2,866,640
2010 14,730,537 3.62% 2,399,658
2005 12,330,879 3.70% 2,045,932
2000 10,284,947 4.30% 1,952,473
1995 8,332,474 4.71% 1,711,777
1990 6,620,697 7.27% 1,960,313
1985 4,660,384 7.37% 1,394,721
1980 3,265,663 8.01% 1,044,608
1975 2,221,055 10.09% 847,337
1970 1,373,718 10.85% 552,978
1965 820,740 10.07% 312,819
1960 507,921 4.43% 99,055
1955 408,866 4.02% 73,106

4.4 URBANIZATION AND MIGRATION RATE

4.4.1 URBANIZATION TREND IN DHAKA
Dhaka’s urban population is growing at an estimated 4 percent each year since independence, at a
time when national population growth was at 2.2 percent. This phenomenal growth is partly driven
by the reclassification of rural areas into urban areas and natural urban population growth but also
partly by considerable rural to urban migration. That large rural- urban population flows have been
the key driver of the process of Urbanization of Dhaka city. A recent study by Pollution Prevention
Resource Center (PPRC), found that just 21 per cent of urban residents were born in the city they
reside in and this figure has dropped to 16 per cent for Dhaka residents. The study found that pull
factors such as employment and education opportunities were the main reasons for the shift to urban
areas.
The urbanization of Bangladesh is interlinked with the intense development of Dhaka City. The
historical process of urban development in Dhaka City presents different trends based on its political
development. Dhaka, developed as a politico-administrative city and subsequently economic and

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commercial activities have also concentrated in the city making it the prominent city of the country.
The urbanization activities in Dhaka City have been achieving tremendous growth for the needs of
the newly independent country’s capital. Overall, Dhaka City has experienced its highest rate of
physical and population growth in recent decades that transformed it into a megacity. Dhaka alone
contains 37% of total national urban population, conforming to the classic case of primate city in
which the population of the largest city is more than the combined total of the three next largest cities
of Chittagong, Khulna and Rajshahi. Dhaka’s inexorable growth as a primate city is mirrored in the
extreme centralization of decision making and political authority. It is moot point as to whether a
more vigorous policy choice towards decentralization might have resulted in a greater spatial
balance of urbanization even with Dhaka continuing to be the leading city.

4.4.2 MIGRATION AND INDUCED POPULATION GROWTH OF DHAKA

Rural-urban migration is a multi-causal phenomenon. It is usually compounded by environmental,
social, economic, political and other factors. For the millions of rural poor in Bangladesh, Dhaka is
still the most attractive destination. Compared to any other place in the country Dhaka offers the
best economic opportunities. It is the administrative headquarters of the nation and the main source
of civil employment, principal center of financial and banking services; it offers the best health and
educational facilities in the country. International commerce and business are all largely
concentrated in Dhaka. More than 80 percent of the garment industries of the country are also
located here. With these industries a large number of young females come to Dhaka to earn their
living. Migrants in Dhaka predominantly come from the Northern and Southern parts of the country.
Comilla, Sherpur and Barisal are the top three districts from where most of the migrants come.
Population growth in Dhaka city during the period 2001 - 2011 was 3.96% per annum. During this
period natural increase/ natural growth rate was 1.47% and migration rate was (3.96% -1.47%)
2.49% per annum. So up to now, about 63% of the total growth of Dhaka’s population is due to
migration and only 37% growth comes from natural increase. From 1961 to 2001, in each of the four
decades, about 73%, 77%, 73% and 57% respectively of the total growth of population have been
due to in-migration. In recent times, because of climatic disruption, things have taken a very severe
turn. River erosion victims from Rangpur, Gaibandha, Nilphamari, and Aila and Sidr-affected people
from Barisal, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bagerhat and Satkhira, are coming to Dhaka for earning their
living. Many of them live in makeshift slums in different locations of the city.

Thousands of people are migrating to the already crowded Dhaka city every year from rural areas
in search of employment and a better life. Most of these people are day laborers who live in some
4,500 unauthorized slums which are mostly controlled by political party cadres. Currently, about one
third of the people in Dhaka live in slums and squatter settlements and this number is increasing
with the increased number of migrants.

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Table 4-3: Population and In-Migration Trend in Dhaka City from 1941 to 2011
Year Population Growth Rate in Dhaka National In-Migration Growth Due Growth Due
City (% per year) Growth Rate Rate (% per to InMigration to Natural
(% per year) year) (in %) Increase (%)
1941 2,39,728 4.14 - - - -
1951 4,11,279 1.28 - - - -
1961 7,18,766 5.18 - - - -
1974 20,68,353 9.32 2.5 6.62 73 27
1981 34,40,147 9.94 2.32 7.62 77 23
1991 71,24,730 7.55 2.01 5.54 73 27
2001 1,02,53,992 3.71 1.58 2.13 57 43
2011 1,51,23,293 3.96 1.47 2.49 63 37
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh National Population Census Report - 1974 (Dhaka:
Ministry of Planning, 1977); Bangladesh Population Census 1981& 1991 Urban Area Report (Dhaka: Ministry
of Planning, 1997); Population Census 2001&2011.

Despite growth of formal sector industrial and other employment, Dhaka is dominated by the
presence of a huge informal sector economic activities. A large number of people migrated to the
city in past decades seeking employment opportunities. The migration to Dhaka from other parts of
the country is taking place at a rate of 6.0 per cent a year. It has been estimated that about 65% of
all employment in the city is in the informal sector. Work in the informal sector has a potential role
in influencing further rural-urban migration also.

4.5 URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEM OF DHAKA CITY

The transport system in Dhaka includes many different modes of travel - both motorized and non-
motorized. These diverse modes often use the same road space, resulting in a high level of
operational disorder. The city’s transport environment and system are unique among cities of
comparable size in the world, being predominantly road based with a substantial share of non-
motorized transport. Buses and minibuses, the cheapest mode available as mass transit, are
constrained by poor service conditions: long waiting, delay on plying, overloading and long walking
distance from the residence/work place to bus stoppages are some of the problems that users
confront daily. This situation has resulted in deterioration in accessibility, level of service, safety,
comfort and operational efficiency, causing increased costs, loss of time, air pollution and
psychological strain, and posing a serious risk to the economic viability of the city and the
sustainability of its environment.

In addition, the city’s road space is limited, with few alternative connector roads, lacking of effective
maintenance and management, most of it with geometrical conditions that make then not accessible
to buses. With non-motorized transport as a significant mode, there are no effective bi-cycle lanes
and safe walkways, and the footpath available for pedestrian is occupied in great proportion by
vendors and others. Most of signals are manually controlled and police have to control traffic, without
properly coordinated automated systems. With policy formation and control shared between
governments agencies poorly coordinated, there has been a lack of organized effort to handle the
situation.
4.5.1 EXISTING ROADWAY TRAFFIC DEMAND IN DHAKA
From the mobility analysis, carried out recently by the consultant of Dhaka Bus Network Study (under
DTCA), it has been observed that on an average working day about 21 million trips take place in the
planning area. High mobility need is due to high population density (45000 persons/sq.km). The
average length of bus trip is 5.6 km, and rickshaw trip is 2.1 km. It is expected that by 2035 modal
share of public transport will increase significantly whereas modal share of rickshaw trip will

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decrease to 20%. Out of all trips taking place each day, trips to school constitute 17.7%, to home
12.6%, and to work is 44.7%.
The prevailing situation is even worse when taken into account the fact that, this inadequate road
space is shared by both motorized and non-motorized traffic (heterogeneous traffic mix) and
vehicles with varying characteristics (e.g. three-wheelers, human haulers, pickups, vans etc.). On
an average day 21 million trips are taking place in Dhaka metropolitan area [6]. Despite the rapid
growth of motorized traffic in Dhaka, non-motorized transport still remains the dominant mode for
the city dwellers who are mostly middle and low income groups. More than 40% of the city trips
(Table 1) are served by walking and rickshaw. The varied traffic mix and heavy concentration of
non-motorized vehicles with almost 70% of the available road space is occupied by rickshaws and
their dominance is expected continue in the foreseeable future. Currently, rickshaw movements are
however restricted in some major roads.

4.5.2 FUTURE TRAFFIC DEMAND IN DHAKA

The “Revised Strategic Transport Plan, 2015”- (RSTP) has provided a future daily trip generation
and demand scenario. Based on a household interview survey, the RSTP estimated the number of
daily trips in the metropolitan area and then projected this forward to 2025 and 2035 using assumed
growth rates for regional GDP. Their predictions are as follows:

Table 4-4: Predicted Future Travel Demand in Dhaka by RSTP

Year Dhaka Population, Average Total Trips Average Trip Total Pass-Km per
RAJUK Area Trips per per Day Distance (km) day (million pass-
(million.) Person per (million) km)
day
2014 16.0 1.86 29.8 7.5 223.5
2025 22.9 1.86 42.7 8.0 341.6
2035 26.3 1.95 51.2 8.5 435.2

Recent Structure Plan (2015-2035) for Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA) DMDP area, also estimated
future travel demand and trip generation (see Table 4-6). The values in the Table 4-5 shows trip
production by each trip purpose. All-purpose trips will increase gradually in the future with trip “To
Work” and trip “To Home” always being dominant. The trips by mode will increase steadily in the
future particularly car and bus trips will increase significantly whereas rickshaw trips will reduce
significantly. During next 20 years there will be substantial increase in population, number of
vehicles, and number of trips for Dhaka which will increase traffic congestion and reduce traffic
speed at peak hour (from 8 km/hour at present to about 4 km/hour by 2035).

Table 4-5: Population Trip Rate by Trip Purpose in DMR Area

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Table 4-6: Present and Future Trip Rate by Each Mode (Unit: %)

4.5.3 CURRENT TRAFFIC MODEL SHARE DISTRIBUTION IN DHAKA

The latest BRT study estimated that on an average day 21 million trips are taking place in Dhaka
metropolitan area. Despite the rapid growth of motorized traffic in Dhaka, non-motorized transport
still remains the dominant mode for the city dwellers who are mostly middle and low income groups.
More than 40% of the city trips (see Table 4-7) are served by walking and rickshaw (DHUTS, 2010).
The varied traffic mix and heavy concentration of non-motorized vehicles with almost 70% of the
available road space is occupied by rickshaws and their dominance is expected continue in the
foreseeable future. Currently, rickshaw movements are however restricted in some major roads.

Table 4-7: Modal Share in Metro Dhaka

It is important to distinguish between the transports needs of the very poor and the low-income
groups, and public transport should be targeted at the population that has the greatest potential to
benefit from it. The trade-off between housing and transport costs helps households decide upon
the type and amount of housing and transport services they consume. Table 4-8 conceptualizes a
classification of households by income to demonstrate these housing/transport trade-offs. It can be
seen from the table that very poor households live in informal housing and often locate very close
to their employment: examples are domestic workers that live on the western embankment near
Mohammadpur and work in the vicinity. Their mobility needs are different from low-income
households whose location is constrained more by housing affordability. The low- to mid-income

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households depend on public transport more than either very poor or high-income households. From
the user survey conducted by the research team, demand for bus is consistent among all the income
groups, apart from the very poor. Use of car is evident among the higher income group, and
generally, mode diversification is more in higher income groups. About half of the users in highest
income group (more than 30,000 taka monthly expenditure) use bus and a quarter of the users in
that income group use car.

Table 4-8: Income Level and Modal Choice of Passenger

Income level Housing Mode of travel
Extreme poor Informal housing NMT/Walking
Poor Inadequate housing NMT/Walking
Low-income Semi-adequate housing Public transport/NMT
Lower-mid income Less than sufficient housing Auto-rickshaw/ Public transport
Middle income Sufficient housing Auto-rickshaw/ Public transport
Upper mid-income Adequate housing Auto-rickshaw / Taxi/Car
High income Adequate housing Auto-rickshaw/Car

The modal distribution by income groups is shown in Table 4-9. It shows that trips on foot is made
by the low income group (73%) while most of the rickshaw trips are made by the middle income
group (59%). The significance of walk and rickshaw trips is clearly evident as they relate to 97% of
the city dwellers. The following Table 4-9 shows modal distribution (in terms of trips) by income
groups. From the table, it is clear that the low income group is responsible for the lion’s share of
trips on foot (73%) while most of the rickshaw trips are made by the middle income group (59%).

Table 4-9: Modal Share of Trips with Respect to Income Groups

Income Group Proportion of Modal Share
Income Groups (%) Walk Rickshaw Transit Motorized
(Non-transit)
Low (<12,500 Tk.) 48 73 38 41 14
Medium (12,500-55,000 49 26 59 56 66
Tk.)
High (>55,000 Tk.) 3 1 3 3 20
Total 100 100 100 100 100

4.5.4 FUTURE TRAFFIC MODEL SHARE ESTIMATION

The RSTP assumed that there were about 195,000 autos in Dhaka in 2014, based on new
registrations and fitness certificates issued 2001-13 (RSTP Table 4-10). The RSTP report estimated
the auto's current modal share at 9% of vehicular trips, rising to 18% by 2035 under the 'do-nothing'
scenario or 16% if the RSTP proposals are implemented (Table 4-10). Given the increase in total
trips and also average trip length, this means that auto numbers could increase by nearly four-fold
during the next twenty years, to around 675,000-750,000 autos by 2035 (a growth rate of 6.1 to
6.5% per annum).

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Table 4-10: Estimated or Forecasted Vehicular Modal Shares (Total Passenger Trips in %)
by RSTP.
Mode 2014 2025 2025 2035 2035
Existing Situation Do Nothing With RSTP Do Nothing With RSTP
Metro 0 0 3 0 14
BRT 0 0 3 0 3
Bus 47 59 63 53 40
Auto-Rickshaw 9 9 8 10 14
Cycle-Rickshaw 32 19 12 16 11
Car, jeep 9 11 9 18 16
Motor-Cycle 3 2 2 3 2
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100
Source: RSTP Interim Report 2, August 2015.

4.6 VEHICULAR TRAFFIC COMPOSITION IN DHAKA

4.6.1 EXISTING PRIVATE VEHICLES IN DHAKA
The classification system for vehicles has changed several times in the past two decades, therefore
it is very hard to make year-on-year comparisons. According to Bangladesh Road Transport
Authority (BRTA) data, until 31 July 2016, of the total 1,011,270 vehicles in Dhaka, there were
412,524 motorcycles, 234,512 cars, 66,297 microbuses, 30,956 jeeps, 26,095 buses and 10,149
mini buses, 8,792 auto-rickshaws and 4,769 human hauler transporting passengers. The remaining
vehicles are used to transport goods. However, these numbers need to be interpreted with caution,
as some of the vehicles actually operate outside Dhaka; also, data on vehicle scrappage is not
accurately recorded. Furthermore, licenses for some vehicles such as auto-rickshaws are officially
restricted in number, though the number actually operating is much higher.
4.6.1.1 MOTORCYCLES
The number of registered motor cycles is steadily increasing. Considering the traffic situation in
Dhaka, motorcycle is the fastest vehicle to have. Owning a motorcycle is also easy as loans and
instalments are available. On top of that, local producers have started to produce local brands of
motorcycle with lower cost and incentives to buy.
4.6.1.2 PRIVATE CARS
The most recent increase in car ownership in Dhaka, at 8.1% per year, is much higher than the
average for Bangladesh over the same period of 5.3%. More than half of private cars in Bangladesh
are registered in Dhaka (Figure 4-1). According to the government's Road Master plan (RMP), by
the year 2025 there could be half a million motor cars in Dhaka, a major increase compared to today.
People's purchasing power is increasing with the steady economic growth, and car ownership is
attractive due to comfort, safety and status, and the lack of suitable alternative public transport.
There are other factors contributing to the rapid growth in car use, including the opportunity of renting
out cars to development projects (as an alternative to buying), and the tendency to operate
development project cars in Dhaka rather than in the project area. The low cost of CNG as fuel has
also encouraged people to buy cars, and there are many workshops available in Dhaka for
converting cars to CNG.

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Figure 4-1: Car Registrations in Dhaka and Bangladesh
4.6.1.3 AUTO-RICKSHAWS
Auto-rickshaws, now powered by CNG, are another important form of passenger transport in Dhaka
city. Their actual numbers are uncertain, as the number of licenses is officially restricted to less than
9,000. However, some sources have suggested that there could be as many as 40,000 operating in
metropolitan Dhaka (Gallagher, 2016a). Surveys carried out in 2014 for the Dhaka Revised Strategic
Transport Plan found that about 9% of all passenger trips were made on auto-rickshaws (or CNG's),
which was about the same proportion of passengers carried on cars, jeeps and microbuses.

4.6.1.4 FOUR-WHEELED VEHICLES

Although four-wheeled taxis are very common in many Asian cities (for example, over 50,000 in
Mumbai and over 40,000 in Kolkata), their numbers in Dhaka have stagnated at a very low level for
several reasons, particularly their higher cost, and competition from smaller, cheaper alternatives
such as CNG's. For the time being, and particularly in view of the growing traffic congestion, there
seems to be little prospect of their numbers increasing substantially.

4.6.1.5 PUBLIC TRANSPORT

According to the RSTP, 2015 the modal share of passenger trips by private transport was 12% in
2014. Given the anticipated growth in car ownership, expected shares by private transport in the
future could increase about three times by 2035. However, given the current level of congestion, a
three-fold increase in the share by private transport is clearly not sustainable. The government's
National Land Transport Policy target of 30% for car is even less sustainable. Urban transport policy
must, almost by definition, focus on this modal split, and modal targets and means of achieving them
are fundamental to sustainable urban transport.

The RSTP states that buses and minibuses are the main mode of vehicular transport for dwellers of
the Greater Dhaka Area, accounting for about 47% of all passenger trips. The bus routes are
increasing in number every year; however, the buses cannot complete the planned daily trips due
to traffic congestion. More than one hundred bus operators are in Dhaka and each of them has a
small number of vehicles. The system is hard to organize into a well-planned and coherent public
transport system. Different sources confirm that many of the bus owners are linked to political parties
and it is difficult for government to unify or regulate them. Many of the bus routes had sufficient
operators in the past, but now they have only 1-2 operators with very few buses. It is not that these
routes are not profitable; politics play a pivotal role in this regard.
4.6.1.6 FREIGHT TRANSPORT
A daytime ban (7:00 am to 8:00 pm) on trucks and trailers (large-size trucks) has operated in Dhaka
for over 15 years, enforced by the DMP. However, covered trucks can move between 10:00 am to

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4:00 pm and 8:00 pm to 7:00 am. Thus, most major freight movements take place at night.
Businesses suffer by this regulation since they are not able to carry their goods out from their
properties or vice versa (DTCA, 2010). The garments industries located inside Dhaka reported in a
recent survey that due to the daytime ban of large/commercial trucks they faced an increase in
delivery time for their export items (and therefore lead time), and 25 percent of these industries
reported an increase in delivery costs (Muzzini and Aparicio, 2013).

During the day, freight movements are limited to small trucks, and smaller quantities of produce (e.g.
fruit and vegetables) are moved from wholesale markets to retail outlets by rickshaw, auto-rickshaw,
rickshaw vans etc. These small vehicles try to carry as many goods as possible, so the vehicle
weight increases and they cannot operate at their normal speed and eventually disrupt traffic flow
on the road. For freight movement this is sometimes ineffective and less productive with regard to
travel time and loading capacity (DTCA, 2010). In addition, these vehicles only serve some
destinations since non¬motorised transports are banned in some major roads.

4.6.1.7 NON-MOTORISED TRANSPORT RICKSHAWS

It is difficult to provide any reliable estimate on the number of rickshaws in Dhaka city. There are
nearly 80,000 officially licenced rickshaws in the Dhaka City Corporation area, but the real number
may be anywhere between 800,000-1,000,000. (source: New Age, 2015).

4.6.1.8 BICYCLES
In last five years, Bangladesh has seen significant growth in bicycle use among the urban residents.
In the winter, we can see many people are using bicycle, though in the summer their number
decreases. There are no dedicated lanes for bicycles and the drivers of fast moving vehicles are not
sensitive to bicycle riders. Therefore, many accidents involve bicycle users. During night and in
areas that are not very much crowded, bicycle riders may also be an easy victim for hoodlums.
Despite all these the cyclist groups has increasing the number of members. Now the necessary
industries are in place for bicycle in Bangladesh, these industries are also trying to create demand.
If the roads can be made safer for cyclists then we may see an increase number of bicycle use in
Dhaka as well as in Bangladesh. In Dhaka, traffic problems cannot be solved without regulating the
use of rickshaw, and one possible solution can be increasing the use of bicycle.

4.6.1.9 PEDESTRIANS
Pedestrians are the most important mode of transport in Dhaka in the sense that everyone is a
pedestrian at some stage, and many public transport trips include a walking stage. Overall, at least
20 percent of all trips in Dhaka are made by walking (main mode), though this may be an
underestimate as capital cities in developed countries often have walking modal shares of 30-40%
(e.g. London, Berlin, Madrid, New York).

Pedestrians suffer a lot in Dhaka as they are at the bottom of the 'pecking order'. There are only 400
km of footpaths of which 40 percent are occupied by street vendors, garbage bins, or construction
materials at any given time (DOE, 2009). Also, pedestrians account for up to 70 percent of road
accident fatalities (ADB, 2007).

4.6.2 MOTORISED VEHICLE GROWING TREND IN DHAKA

In Bangladesh, motorized traffic is growing rapidly, around 300 new motorized vehicles are coming
to road every day. The number of registered motorized vehicle grew from 7,37,400 in 2003 to
17,51,834 in June, 2012. More than 40% of all registered vehicles (7,08,197) are in Dhaka (BRTA,
2012). Trends of motor vehicle growth are shown in Figure 4-2.

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Figure 4-2: Motorized Vehicle Growing Trend in Dhaka

It can be observed from the Figure 4-2 that, the number of privately owned motor vehicles particularly
motorcycles and cars are growing rapidly which increased by 200% and 250% respectively over the
period of 8 years. Motorcycles constitute around 42% of total motorized vehicles. Public transport
such as buses and minibuses has not grown substantially despite the demand for public transport
services has increased considerably. There are 11,060 buses and 8,583 minibuses plying on roads
which represents only about 3% (buses and minibuses combined) of total motorized traffic. The
share of bus fleet (buses and minibuses combined) has been in fact declining (see figure 4-3). Cars
and motorcycles are becoming increasingly necessity to get around, especially given the
unsatisfactory alternative of slow, overcrowded, undependable, and dangerous public transport
services.

Figure 4-3: Growth of Buses and Minibuses in Dhaka

Based on the above mentioned private vehicle growth trend (Figure 4-2 and 4-3), the RSTP study
has projected future amount of private vehicle in DMA area. The RSTP study has defined annual
vehicle growth rate as 5.2% from 2017 onwards. The following Figure 4-4 shows the projected future
amount private vehicles.

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Figure 4-4: Forecasted Private Vehicle Amount for DMA area by RSTP.

4.7 TRAFFIC FLOWS AND CONGESTION IN DHAKA

In 2014 Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) and the International Growth Centre (IGC)
collected hourly traffic volume data of Airport Road to Postagola Bridge (following major arterial
roads) using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology for tracking vehicles. The survey
found that the volume of vehicles increased significantly during the morning peak from 7 am to 9
am, and then remained high from 9 am to 1 pm. Between 1 pm to 6 pm the corridor became even
busier, with a maximum peak in the early evening around 6pm. After 8pm the numbers of vehicles
decreased sharply (Figure 4-5).

Figure 4-5: Hourly Traffic Volumes in Dhaka, 1 January 2014

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The above graph of traffic flows is typical of main roads throughout Dhaka, which are often highly
congested throughout much of the day. Congested primary and secondary roads result in vehicle
queues, increased travel time and cost, more fuel consumption and additional pollution in the
environment. To gain a better understanding of causes of traffic congestion in Dhaka, the BIGD
research team collected information from transport users on their views of what caused traffic
congestion. In the survey, most identified (1) haphazard parking, (2) street occupied by private
transport, and (3) violation of traffic rules as the three most important causes of traffic congestion in
the city.
4.8 CONCLUDING REMARKS
There is an ever increasing urgency of mitigating the complex transport problems in Dhaka. Poor
traffic management, lack of road spaces and the absence of organized public transport resulted in
severe traffic congestion, massive delays, increased fuel wastage and resource losses.

Revitalization of public transport is a core issue and improving the quality of public transport with
transport capacity improvement and relieving traffic congestion are urgent matters. There are
several options in addressing mass transit facilities like Bus way/ BRT, Tram, LRT (Light Rail Transit)
and Metros. With relative advantages, BRT option is seen as an urgent consideration for Dhaka.
The Strategic Transport Plan (STP), for Metro Dhaka, recommended a package of comprehensive
programs for the development of transport infrastructure over 20 year period. Of most significant of
the programs were three Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes within the development of six major
corridors as mass transit routes as a means for achieving sustainable urban transport in the city.

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CHAPTER-05
STUDY AREA PROFILE

5.1 GENERAL
This chapter briefly discusses the geo-physical and socioeconomic baseline information for the
surroundings or project influence area of proposed Mirpur DOHS- Kalshi flyover. Existing
transportation system and road connectivity including future forecasted demographic scenario are
also discussed in this chapter.

5.2 PROJECT INFLUENCE OR STUDY AREA

Figure 5-1, depicts the delineated study area boundary for the proposed flyover project by consulting
team. The following Table 5-1 shows list of administrative zones or wards of Dhaka North City
Corporation Area, which are selected as study area for this feasibility study.
Table 5-1: List of Administrative Areas or Wards selected as Study Area
Sl. No Thana Name Administrative Unit / Ward No AREA (sq. km)
1 Kafrul Ward No-04 1.3343
2 Mirpur Ward No-07 1.7303
3 Mirpur Ward No-08 3.6370
4 Pallabi Ward No-02 2.4852
5 Pallabi Ward No-03 0.9677
6 Pallabi Ward No-05 1.4734
7 Pallabi Ward No-06 3.3373
8 Pallabi Ward No-15 7.1656
9 Uttara Harirampur (partly) 6.8746
10 Cantonment Ward No-98 (Restricted Area) 2.6179

The consulting team members has defined 04 spatial zone of DNCC administrative area as prime
influence area of proposed flyover at Kalsi. These zones have all the positive and negative
characteristics of a Megacity like large population, economic boom, employment opportunities,
various service opportunities, slums, homelessness, traffic congestion, urban sprawl, gentrification,
air pollution etc. The zone wise traffic influence area are shown in Table 5-2.

Table 5-2: Major Influence Zones and Areas for Proposed Flyover
Influence Zone Influence Area Name
Zone-1 (Uttara) Uttara Model Town, Kuril, Khilkhet, Nikunjo

Zone-2 (Mirpur-Pallabi) Mirpur section-12, Mirpur Ceramic, Mirpur section-10, Mirpur section-14,
Byshteki, Mirpur section-11, Bawneabad Area, Mirpur section-6 & 7, Pollabi,
Mirpur section-2, Rupnagar, Govt. housing Estate, Mirpur section-1, Box
Nagar, Zoo and Botanical Garden, Vasantek, Maticata, Manikdey, Barentek.
Zone-3 (Gulshan) Baridhara, Shahjadpur, Gulshan, Banani, Mahakhali, Niketan, Badda, East
Rampura, Ulon, West Haji Para, Khilgaon B Zone, Purbo Haji Para,
Chowdhury Para, Tajgaon I/A, Kunipara, Azrat Para, Rasul bag, Tejgaon,
Boro Maghbazar, Eskaton. Neyatola

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Zone-4 (Mirpur- Kazi Golartek, Bagbari, Gabtoli Bus Terminal, Gabtoli, Mirpur Colony, Darus
Para, Gabtoli) Salam, Paikpara, Ahmed Nagar, Monipur, Parer Bagh, Kazipara,
Sawrapara, Senpara-parbata, Ibrahimpur, Kafrul.

Figure 5-1: Map of Proposed Study Area

5.3 GEOPHYSICAL CHARACTERSTICS OF STUDY AREA

This section includes the existing environmental baseline status of MRT line 5 Project study area,
covering both the natural and social environments. The analysis was completed through the use of
a combination of secondary data sources in addition to extensive on¬ground reconnaissance and
baseline studies to establish an understanding of the environmental and socio-economic baseline
of the Project area.
5.3.1 LANDUSE PATTERN
The consultant team has used “Detail Area Plan (DAP) of Dhaka (DMDP Area)” GIS Database for
presenting the existing and future landuse pattern of the study area. Figure 5-2 shows the current
actual road pattern and physical structural map of the study area. Following Table 5-3 and Figure 5-
3 shows the spatial inventory of existing landuse pattern, defined in DAP GIS database. Whereas
Table 5-4 and Figure 5-4 presents DAP inventor of proposed landuse pattern of the study area.

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Figure 5-2: Current Street Network and Physical Feature Map of Study Area

Table 5-3: DAP Database Inventory on Existing Landuse Pattern of Study Area
Landuse Type Sum of Area (sq. meter) (%) of Total Area
Commercial Activity 362973.3285 1.15%
Education & Research 330974.9451 1.05%
Graveyard 19291.17358 0.06%
Institutional 538076.8035 1.71%
Miscellaneous 740414.8207 2.35%
Mixed Use 330523.5517 1.05%
Open Space 98283.83489 0.31%
Residential 24370150.12 77.47%
Restricted Area 271552.767 0.86%
Transport & Communication 1177793.386 3.74%
Water Body 3218457.135 10.23%
Grand Total 31458491.87 100.00%

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Figure 5-3: Existing Landuse Pattern of Study Area in DAP Database

Table 5-4: DAP Database Inventory on Proposed / Future Landuse Pattern of Study Area
Landuse Type Sum of Area (sq. meter) (%) of Total Area
Commercial Zone (Business) 106848.2294 0.34%
Existing Road 91871.26294 0.29%
Flood Flow Zone 5271.886238 0.02%
Institutional Zone 548799.7271 1.73%
Mixed Use Zone (Residential-Commercial) 326083.1915 1.03%
Open Space 2321692.353 7.32%
Overlay Zone 6636325.501 20.94%
Proposed Road 434810.4119 1.37%
Proposed Road Network 498877.368 1.57%
Transport & Communication 1324691.933 4.18%
Urban Residential Zone 15303196.63 48.28%
Uttara 3rd Phase 2043267.474 6.45%
Waterbody 2055865.046 6.49%
Grand Total 31697601.01 100.00%

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Figure 5-4: Proposed / Future Landuse Pattern of Study Area in DAP Database

5.3.2 GEOLOGY AND SOIL

Dhaka lies in the extreme south of the Madhupur Tract, which is situated in the central- eastern part
of Bangladesh. The planning area is covered mainly by the Pleistocene Madhupur Clay, a yellowish
brown to the highly oxidized reddish brown silty clay; and by Holocene sediments to the south, west
and east made up of alluvial silt and clay and marshy clay and peat. The moisture content and liquid
limit results obtained for the Madhupur clay show that it is normally consolidated to slightly over-
consolidated, perhaps due to groundwater pumping. The clay has intermediate to high plasticity,
and is overlain by the Dupi Tila formation of medium to coarse sand. The incised channels and
depressions within the city are floored by recent alluvial flood plain deposits. Geomorphic units
identified for surface features are given in Table 5-5.

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Table 5-5: Geomorphic Units Identified for Dhaka Terrace
Higher Pleistocene Terrace (HPT) Moderately Higher Pleistocene Terrace (MHPT)
Moderately Erosional Pleistocene Terrace
Highly Erosional Pleistocene Terrace (HEPT)
(MEPT)
Erosional Terrace Edge (ETE) Old Natural Levee (ONL)
Younger Natural Levee (YNL) Old Inactive Floodplain (OIF)
Point Bar (PB) Younger Floodplain (YF)
Deep Marshy land (DML) Shallow Marshy Land (SML)
Deep Alluvial Valley (DAV) Moderately Deep Alluvial Valley (MDAV)
Shallow Alluvial Valley (SAV) Inundated Abundant Channel (IAC)
Abundant River Bed (ARB) River System (RS)

5.3.3 FAULT ZONE AND SEISMICITY

Faults and lineaments that have occurred due to tectonic movements appear along the edge of the
Dhaka terrace on the east, trending south-west and along the Tongi Khal in Tongi- Uttara-Uttar
Khanarea, trending east-west.

Dhaka city falls in seismic zone II of the seismic zoning map of Bangladesh. It is classified as being
on the upper end of the scale for moderate risk. Significant damaging historical earthquakes have
occurred in and around Bangladesh and damaging moderate-magnitude earthquake occur every
few years. The country’s position adjacent to the very active Himalayan subduction plate in the north,
moving east, and the westward movement of the Burma deformation produce the potential for
earthquakes. A history of earthquake activity in Bangladesh, focusing on probable effects for Dhaka,
can be found in Akhter (undated). Apparently the risk of a large magnitude quake is fairly great.
Vulnerability to damage and to loss of life is increased due to the lack of an effective earthquake
building code.

Source: Geological Survey of Bangladesh

Figure 5-5: Earthquake Zone of Bangladesh

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5.3.6 VEHICULAR TRAFFIC GROWTH PATTERN / FACTOR
A study team from BUET has proposed several vehicular traffic growth rate based on national
economy or GDP growth during pre-feasibility analysis of proposed Dhaka-Ashulia Elevated
Expressway Project. The BUET study team has predicted vehicular traffic growth pattern or rate on
that study which are identical for different travel mode and GDP growth rate. The vehicle ownership
model was developed by combining historical vehicle ownership database and growth pattern with
demographic and economic forecasts. Figure 5-6 describes the forecasted growth rates for the
modeled time horizon by BUET study team.

Figure 5-6: Forecasted Vehicle Growth at different Economic Growth Conditions

5.4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE OF STUDY AREA

The present socio-economic conditions of the people of the project or study area will provide sound
reference and assess probable socio-economic impact of the proposed interventions. This will
enable us to compare the changes and impacts of the project interventions in future.
The socio-economic baseline scenario describes the socio-economic characteristics of project area
on the basis of primary and secondary data. The socio-economic characteristics include
administrative area, demographic, household size, education, occupation, housing, employment
opportunity, health, housing, access to water and sanitation status, etc.

5.4.1 PRESENT DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO

5.4.1.1 POPULATION GROWTH AND DENSITY
Dhaka is the most densely inhabited city in the world. In terms of population size, it is one of the
largest cities in the world. Population density of Dhaka North City in 2016-2017 has been estimated
at 57,499 per sq km. Population density in wards are much higher than overall population density.
According to the statistics of “Waste Management Plan for Dhaka North City Corporation Area”
report at 2018, Ward-36 (Noyatola in Mogbazar area) has the highest population density with
110,863 per sq km in both DSCC and DNCC. Ward-19 has the lowest population density with 22,300
per sq km. Wards 3, 5,11,13,14 (in Mirpur area), Wards 30,31 (in Mohammadpur area), Ward-25
(Nakhal Para) and Ward-22 (in Rampura Area) are top ten populous Wards. Among the selected
wards of DNCC as study area for this study area, Ward -03 and Ward -05 has highest population
density (See Figure 5-7).

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Figure 5-7: Most Densely Populated Wards of DSCC and DNCC in 2016-2017.

The whole study area population consists of summation of three distinctive administrative zones.
These are –
 Existing Ward’s population of DNCC
 Cantonment Thana Restricted Area or Ward No 98’s Population
 Population of Harirampur and Baunia area.

The following Table 5-6 shows, current population distribution of all units of study area. By using the
population data for year of 2017 at “Waste Management Plan for Dhaka North City Corporation
Area” report, the consultant has estimated current amount of population (total 1,376,491) with an
applied growth rate of 3.56% per year.

Table 5-6: Current Population in All Units of Study Area

Total
Area or Population Density Total Population Growth
Population
Administrative Unit Per Sq. Km (2017) (2017) Rate
(2019)

Ward No-02 3.56%

59,842 182,397 195,615

Ward No-03 3.56%

103,264 113,694 121,933

Ward No-04 3.56%

67,543 90,372 96,921

Ward No-05 3.56%

105,545 141,853 152,133

Ward No-06 3.56%

64,936 196,692 210,946

Ward No-07 3.56%

72,862 136,617 146,517

Ward No-08 3.56%

35,385 133,615 143,298

Ward No-15 3.56%

35,961 208,789 223,919
Harirampur and
3.56%
Baunia Area 33,291 79,452 85,209

Total Population
1,283,481 1,376,491

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5.4.1.2 HOUSEHOLDS
Existing house hold characteristics and data obtained from at “Waste Management Plan for Dhaka
North City Corporation Area” report are shown in Table 5-7 (no . of Holdings or Houses). Table 5-8
presents administrative unit / ward wise further household (HH) information such as - average HH
size, sex ratio and literacy rate.
Table 5-7: Existing Holdings or Houses in Study Area
Administrative Units / Area (Sq km) Nos. of Holding / Ward Area Name
Area House
Ward-No. 02 3.048 4,902 Mirpur section-12, Mirpur
Ceramic
Ward-No. 03 1.101 3,150 Mirpur section-10
Ward-No. 04 1.338 1,361 Mirpur section-14, Byshteki
Ward-No. 05 1.3444 2,190 Mirpur section-11,
Bawneabad Area
Ward-No. 06 3.029 3,135 Mirpur section-6 8t 7, Pollabi
Ward-No. 07 1.875 2,981 Mirpur section-2, Rupnagar,
Govt.
Ward-No. 08 7.1656 2056 Mirpur section-2, Rupnagar,
Govt.
Ward-No. 15 5.806 3,729 Vasantek, Maticata,
Manikdey, Barentek.
Harirampur and Baunia 2.386 1,987 Mirpur -01 and Mirpur Zoo
Area Area
Total Households 25,491
Source: “Waste Management Plan for Dhaka North City Corporation Area” report, 2017

Table 5-8: Demographic Information of Existing HHs within Study Area

Ward No./ Total Avg. HH Sex Male Female Literacy
Units HHs size Ratio Member Member (%)

Ward No-02 4,902 4.2 109 74.3

102,019 93,596

Ward No-03 3,150 4.2 108 72.3

63,311 58,622

Ward No-04 1,361 4.2 124 77.9

53,653 43,268

Ward No-05 2,190 4.2 112 70.7

80,372 71,761

Ward No-06 3,135 4.1 115 71.5

112,831 98,114

Ward No-07 2,981 4.2 126 65.6

81,687 64,831

Ward No-08 2056 3.8 116 68.4

76,956 66,342

Ward No-15 3,729 4.2 120 79.7

122,138 101,782
Harirampur and
1,987 4.2 114 78.3
Baunia Area 45,392 39,817

5.4.1.3 AGE STRUCTURE

Table 5-8 represents age-cohort wise present population distribution for entire study area. (no. of
Holdings or Houses). This data obtained from at “Waste Management Plan for Dhaka North City
Corporation Area” report.

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Table 5-8: Population Age Structure / Distribution Pattern
Sl. No Age Cohort Total Person (%) of Total
No. Population
1 0-5 years 100,392 7.29%
2 5-9 years 108,758 7.90%
3 10-19 years 270,540 19.65%
4 20-29 years 338,371 24.58%
5 30-39 years 261,688 19.01%
6 40-49 years 160,224 11.64%
7 50-59 years 79,668 5.79%
8 60-69 years 37,590 2.73%
9 70-79 years 13,936 1.01%
10 80+ years 5,324 0.39%

5.4.1.4 HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT

In accordance to the “Waste Management Plan for Dhaka North City Corporation Area” survey report
of 2016-2017, industrial activities are the dominant source of employment in the study area. At 2019,
approximately 52,416 male and 50,815 female members are involved in industrial related activities.
Moreover, significant numbers of the population; 47,443 male and 42,368 female, of the study area
are involved in service related activities. According to that census in the study area, agriculture

Table 5-9: Employment Status of the Study area.

Ward No./ Population Aged 7+, not Field of Activity
Union attending school but
employed
Total Male Female Agriculture Industry Service
Male Female Male Female Male Female
Ward No-02
195,615 102,019 93,596 2,161 413 52,416 50,815 47,443 42,368
Ward No-03
121,933 63,311 58,622 494 - 18,309 38,262 44,508 20,360
Ward No-04
96,921 53,653 43,268 3,823 339 18,100 21,295 31,730 21,634
Ward No-05
152,133 80,372 71,761 5,132 1,650 22,893 39,568 52,347 30,543
Ward No-06
210,946 112,831 98,114 1,744 315 18,380 40,900 92,707 56,900
Ward No-07
146,517 81,687 64,831 1,929 508 21,379 26,715 58,379 37,608
Ward No-08
143,298 76,956 66,342 1,535 270 12,381 21,753 63,040 44,318
Ward No-15
223,919 122,138 101,782 1,999 453 32,930 36,427 87,210 64,901
Harirampur and
Baunia Area 85,209 45,392 39,817 859 68 13,899 15,079 30,634 24,670

5.4.2 FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIO

Migration from rural areas of the country to urban Dhaka is a strong contributor to the population
growth. This rural migration accounted for 60% population growth throughout the 1960s and 1970s.
While this growth has slowed since that time, Dhaka continues to show steady growth, with
estimates placing the 2020 population at almost 21 million, while 2030 may see as many as 27.3
million residents. The fast-growing population has already put tremendous stress on the city, as

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evidenced by its high rates of poverty, and future concerns include increasing congestion, a higher
rate of unemployment and inadequate infrastructure.

Based on forecasting parameters and estimated growth rates of “ World Population Review: A web
based worldwide demographic research site” for Dhaka City Corporation Area, the consulting team
members has forecasted yearwise population growth for entire study area from 2020 up to 2040.
Table 5-10 shows ward wise estimated or forecasted population.

Table 5-10: Study Area Population Forecast from 2020 up to 2040.

Growth Area or Administrative Unit Wise Population Projection
Year Rate Harirampur Total
(%) W-02 W-03 W-04 W-05 W-06 W-07 W-08 W-15
& Baunia Population
2019 3.56
195,615 121,933 96,921 152,133 210,946 146,517 143,298 223,919 85,209 1,376,491
2020 3.62
202,696 126,347 100,430 157,640 218,582 151,821 148,485 232,025 88,294 1,426,320
2021 3.62
210,034 130,921 104,065 163,346 226,495 157,317 153,860 240,425 91,490 1,477,953
2022 3.62
217,637 135,660 107,832 169,260 234,694 163,012 159,430 249,128 94,802 1,531,455
2023 3.62
225,515 140,571 111,736 175,387 243,190 168,913 165,201 258,146 98,234 1,586,894
2024 3.62
233,679 145,660 115,781 181,736 251,993 175,028 171,182 267,491 101,790 1,644,339
2025 3.35
241,507 150,539 119,659 187,824 260,435 180,891 176,916 276,452 105,200 1,699,424
2026 3.35
249,598 155,582 123,668 194,116 269,159 186,951 182,843 285,713 108,724 1,756,355
2027 3.35
257,959 160,794 127,811 200,619 278,176 193,214 188,968 295,285 112,366 1,815,193
2028 3.35
266,601 166,181 132,092 207,340 287,495 199,686 195,299 305,177 116,131 1,876,002
2029 3.35
275,532 171,748 136,517 214,286 297,126 206,376 201,841 315,400 120,021 1,938,848
2030 2.97
283,715 176,849 140,572 220,650 305,951 212,505 207,836 324,768 123,586 1,996,432
2031 2.97
292,142 182,101 144,747 227,203 315,038 218,817 214,009 334,413 127,256 2,055,726
2032 2.97
300,818 187,510 149,046 233,951 324,394 225,316 220,365 344,345 131,036 2,116,781
2033 2.97
309,753 193,079 153,473 240,899 334,029 232,007 226,909 354,572 134,928 2,179,649
2034 2.97
318,952 198,813 158,031 248,054 343,950 238,898 233,649 365,103 138,935 2,244,385
2035 2.45
326,767 203,684 161,903 254,131 352,376 244,751 239,373 374,048 142,339 2,299,372
2036 2.45
334,772 208,675 165,869 260,358 361,009 250,748 245,238 383,212 145,826 2,355,707
2037 2.45
342,974 213,787 169,933 266,736 369,854 256,891 251,246 392,601 149,399 2,413,422
2038 2.45
351,377 219,025 174,096 273,272 378,916 263,185 257,401 402,220 153,059 2,472,551
2039 2.45
359,986 224,391 178,362 279,967 388,199 269,633 263,708 412,074 156,809 2,533,128
2040 2.2
367,906 229,328 182,286 286,126 396,739 275,565 269,509 421,140 160,259 2,588,857

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5.5 DELINEATING TRAFFIC ATTRACTION ZONE
The study team members reveals during field survey and consultation works that “from Mirpur” in
the morning peak hour nearly 80 percent of traffic (8-10 am) originates in different sections of Mirpur
whereas Mirpur section 10, 1, 2 and Matikata are noteworthy. These trips are mostly destined to the
north western part of Dhaka city. The next important destined areas are Gulshan, Mohakhali,
Rampura and Shahjadpur to the other side of the city. The rest originates in more distant areas like
Jirabo of Savar, Hemayetpur, Kallayanpur, Lalmatia, Segunbagicha, Shyamoli and Mohakhali.
These trips are mostly destined to Uttara followed by Gulshan, Banani and Mohakhali. At the peak
hour of traffic “to Mirpur” majority of the trips are destined to Mirpur section 2, due to Sher E Bangla
national stadium, then to section 10, 12, 1, 6, Kalshi, Kazipara, Shewrapara, Agargaon, Manikdi,
and Mirpur DOHS.
Whereas the traffic coming towards Mirpur at both peak and off peak hour originate from diverse
areas. Most of these trips originate from Kuril-Bishwa road followed by Uttara, Banani, Airport,
Gulshan and Mohakhali. Trips also originate from Gazipur, Shewra (Uttara) and Badda. At the off-
peak hour of traffic the priority of destination places goes to Mirpur 10, Pallabi, and Mirpur 11, these
are residential areas with numbers of commercial buildings and famous Benarashi Pally is also
located here. It has also been found that at off-peak hour trips using the flyover are destined to more
distant and diverse areas than the peak hour where Farmgate, Motijheel, Tejgaon, Zhigatala,
Gazipur, and Mawa are observed. A few numbers of new areas connected by the flyover are seen
here like, Bashundhara, Baridhara, Tongi, Radisson hotel, and Mymensingh also. Figure 5-8 shows
presently most connected areas with Mirpur by this flyover.

Figure 5-8: Most Connected Vehicular Traffic Areas with Greater Mirpur and Proposed
Study Area.

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CHAPTER-06
METHOD STATEMENT

6.1 GENERAL
To achieve the objectives of the study, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive methodology for
the study. The methodology, used for developing a comprehensive traffic flow distribution model in
consideration with travel demand is described in this chapter. The collection procedure of data, the
application procedure of different mathematical theories to calculate travel demand, to develop the
urban transport model and also to assign traffic along the study route is portrayed in the following
sections.

6.2 APPROACH OF THE STUDY

The preliminary step of the study starts with extensive literature survey and review to develop clear
understanding of the concept of existing and optimum traffic flow distribution and its application
along the routes of project area and project influence area. An extensive literature review has been
conducted to examine the present travel pattern and traffic flow scenario of Dhaka City. The
generalized approach, adopted by the study team can be listed as follows.

a. Understanding the project’s key objectives and fixation of study goals with defining the
scope of works.
b. Demarcation of project influence area and study area.
c. Developing conceptual framework and study methodology.
d. Collection primary data from different designed survey works and secondary information.
e. Data processing and analysis.
f. Model development for traffic flow pattern and future travel demand analysis.
g. Traffic improvement scenario development and recommendation, based on findings.

The following Figure 6-1, shows the sequential activities and components of approach and
methodology followed by the consulting team during this feasibility and traffic study.

Project Objective Understanding and Defining the Scope of Works

Project Study Area and Project Influence Area Demarcation

Literature Review Works and Secondary Data Collection

Survey Design and Collection of Primary Data

Data Processing

Traffic Flow and Travel Demand Model Development

Qualitative and Quantative Analysis

Traffic Flow Improvement Alternative Option Analysis

Recommending Viable and Feasible Solution

Figure 6-1: Detail Approach and Method Statement of the Study

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6.3 DETAIL METHOD STATEMENT
This section briefly discusses applied / adopted approach / technique by the consulting team to fulfill
every step or phase of study, shown in Figure 5-1. Understanding about project and objective of the
study with scope of activities are defined in Chapter-01. Project study area and project influence
area are also defined in Chapter-01 and briefly discussed in Chapter-05. Desk based review of
previous and existing plans and development activities, those are considered to be crucial for this
study are discussed in Chapter-04. The remaining steps / phases / activities, shown in Figure 5-1.

6.3.1 SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION

Link wise traffic volume data for motorized vehicles along major arterial roads of Dhaka city has
been collected from an unpublished MURP thesis (Jahan, 2015). Traffic volume (both MT and NMT)
along some alternative secondary roads have been collected from DHUTS, 2009 and revised
Strategic Urban Transport Plan Report, 2015. To convert the traffic volume data present annual
growth rate of motorized vehicle (7.6%) has been used (Obtained from Strategic Transport Plan
Report). Soft copy of Detail Area Plan (DAP) Map has been collected from RAJUK which provides
the data on detail road network map. Road capacity standard (PCU/lane/hour) has been collected
from DITS (1994). The following Table 6-1 illustrates the list of secondary data with sources are
used in this study

Table 6-1: List of Secondary Data with Sources

Sl. No Data Type Report Name / Description Source
Dhaka Urban Transport Strategic Plan, 2009 RHD
Revised Dhaka Urban Transport Strategic Plan, 2015 RHD
Road User Cost Survey Report LGED
1 Road Traffic Data Road way Master plan, 2010 Ministry of
Transportation
Traffic Manual and Design Report of LGED LGED
Road way Traffic Data RHD website
Dhaka Urban Structure Plan (1995-2015) RAJUK
Landuse, Master Structure Plan of RAJUK Area (2015-2055) RAJUK
Plan and
2 Detail Area Plan (DAP 1995-2015) Report – Group C and RAJUK
Development
Location-01 Report
Plan Data
MRT Line- 6 Report RHD
Population Census – Community Report and Zila Statistics BBS
of Dhaka District.
Socio-economic Household Income Expenditure Survey, 2010. BBS
and
3 National Economic Census, 2015 BBS
Demographic
Data Urbanization and Migration Survey Report BBS
DNCC Website based Database DNCC
Website

6.3.2 SURVEY AND PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION

The consulting has selected a number of surveys for primary traffic and roadway data collection
through reconnaissance visit to the proposed project area. After developing required checklist of the
selected survey works and training the surveyors, the consultant has deployed it’s data collection
physically to the site. The list of surveys, conducted for this study purpose are as follows

a. reconnaissance and survey design

b. traffic volume survey

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c. road infrastructure inventory
d. O-D survey
e. speed survey
f. delay survey

6.3.2.1 RECONNAISSANCE AND SURVEY DESIGN

Reconnaissance survey is conducted by the consulting team member in February 2019, to examine
the general characteristics of the area for the purpose of proposed flyover route with further more
detailed investigations of surrounding areas.

Data collected from reconnaissance survey is used for – understanding the project scenario,
planning survey and data collection, preparation of traffic model and analysis strategies for the
feasibility study. This survey also helps in determining any deviations required in the basic geometric
standards to be adopted for the existing roadway capacity and traffic facility.

6.3.2.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME SURVEY

Traffic Volume is the number of vehicles crossing a section of road per unit time at any selected
period. Traffic volume is used as a quantity measure of flow, the commonly used units are vehicles
per day and vehicles per hour. One of the fundamental measures of traffic on a road is the volume
of traffic using the road in a given interval of time. It is also termed as flow and it is expressed in
vehicles per hour or vehicle per day. When the traffic is composed of a number of vehicles, it is the
normal practice to convert the flow into equivalent Passenger-Car Unit (PCU), by using certain
equivalency factors. The flow is then expressed as PCUs per hour or PCUs per day. Knowing the
flow characteristics one can easily determine whether a particular section of the road is handling
traffic much above or below its capacity. If a traffic is heavy, the road suffers from congestion with
consequent loss in journey speeds.

The consulting team has applied manual traffic counting method for volume survey and employs a
field team to record traffic volume on the prescribed record sheets. The consulting team has selected
this method because by this, it is possible to obtain diversified traffic data which cannot be collected
by mechanical counters, such as vehicle classification, turning movements and counts where the
loading condition or number of occupants are required. The survey team has recorded traffic volume
data for each pre-selected road sections or segments from 07.30 am to 10.00 pm (total 14.5 hours).
The fluctuation of traffic volume during the hours of day and variations are observed by maintaining
a 15 mins interval period. The following Figure 6-2 shows the, locations of traffic volume recording
points at the proposed study area.

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Figure 6-2: Traffic Volume Survey Locations

6.3.2.3 ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE INVENTORY

This is a comprehensive survey which can be used to study the profile of the roads in the area of
study features like road/Pavement widths, road pavement types, street lighting, luminosity, drain
types, encroachments, presence of vendors/street furniture, bus stops etc. can be studied and
detailed resulting in the most accurate and detailed profiling of the existing conditions. Inventory
data does not change significantly with time and therefore does not have to be collected with regular
intervals. It is anticipated that the collection could be a onetime activity for most inventory items.

The consulting team has physically investigated existing condition of different segments of proposed
flyover and other surrounding roads. The consultant has developed road way infrastructure inventory
based on following investigations or physical survey.
i. Road and Link Numbering
ii. Location Reference Point Survey
iii. Cross Section Inventory Survey
iv. Drainage Inventory Survey
The survey team recorded inventory data for each selected road sections or segment by using the
standard survey checklist (see Table 6-2). Detail of inventory survey results and outputs are
discussed in Chapter-07.
Table 6-2: Checklist for Road Condition Infrastructure Inventory

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6.3.2.4 ROAD INTERSECTION AND TRAFFIC FLOW DIRECTION SURVEY
Traffic survey of the intersections is made by the consulting team members at 04 distinctive road
intersections in the project area. These selected intersections are- ECB Chattar, Kalshi Moar, Pallabi
Road-Kalshi Junction and and Shagufta Crossing near to Mirpur DOHS.

Intersection survey was conducted by the consulting team to measure and analyze the existing road
traffic flow and segments of relevant phenomena with an objective method so as to understand and
command the rules of traffic flow. As the basis of traffic flow and channelization in the project area,
the traffic survey of the intersection mainly covers the survey of geometrical conditions, traffic
conditions and signal timing of the intersection.
a. Survey of the geometrical conditions of the intersection, mainly including the survey of the
location and nature of the intersection, lane width, number of lanes, width of separator and
so on.
b. Survey of traffic conditions of the intersection, mainly including the survey traffic composition
of the intersection, nature of the traffic flow, the peak hour traffic and so on.
c. Survey of timing scheme of the intersection, mainly including the survey of the signal cycle
length, phase scheme and so on.
d. Traffic channelization pattern of intersecting roads.
The following Figure 6-3 shows the intersection name and location, where survey are conducted by
the consultant. The survey team recorded traffic channelization flow for each intersection
(intersecting road segment wise separately) by using the following checklist (see Table 6-3).

Table 6-3: Schematic Checklist for Intersection Wise Traffic Channelization

Figure 6-3: Location of Traffic Channelization and Intersection Survey

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6.3.2.5 TRAFFIC SPEED SURVEY
Free flow speed (FFS) is referred to as a motorist’s desired speed on a road segment at low
traffic flow or low traffic density condition, and in the absence of traffic control devices. It is
a significant variable used in assessing the expected operating conditions or level of service
(LOS) of existing road networks. To justify a decision making on any expenditure to be made for
improving the performance level of road facility, it is therefore, desirable to evaluate the
performance indicator that reflects the current LOS using the most appropriate approaches.
Application of a more realistic approach for assessing road’s performance indicators would
results in better estimates which will in turn suggests the most suitable decision to be made
(for situations where upgrading is needed).

The consultant team has conducted traffic speed survey for four selected road segments (both way
traffic) in both peak and off-peak hours. “Moving Car Observer” method was applied during the
survey. The selected road segments for speed survey are-
i. ECB Chattar To Kalshi Moar
ii. Kalshi Junction to Mirpur Pallabi Road
iii. Kalshi Moar to Shagufta Intersection
iv. Shagufta Intersection to Mirpur DOHS Gate-01.

6.3.2.6 TRAVEL TIME AND DELAY SURVEY

Speed information collected in Travel Time and Delay surveys provides an overview of the operating
characteristics of functionally classified roadways as they pass through proposed project area o
flyover route. In the February 2019, the consultant team has conducted Travel Time and Delay
Survey. Survey data collected for same selected road segments for Traffic speed survey. In fact,
travel time was collected by a separate survey team simultaneously with speed survey team.

Various factors can affect the measures of travel time and delay presented in this report. First,
posted speed limits on roadways that have the same functional classification and area type often
vary. When interpreting the study results, consideration must be given to signage variability within
individual area type-functional class groupings, the size of the study area, and practical limitations
with respect to the sample collected.

Analysis of the travel time data by peak and off-peak period revealed a relatively small peak versus
off-peak speed discrepancies observed on the roadways studied. The degree to which speeds on
individual functional classes fluctuate with changes in activity density provides another indication of
the nature and scale of congestion within an urban area. Overall, (peak and off-peak) weighted
averages for travel speeds on the various functional classes fluctuated between the CBD and Urban
area types, and then increased through the Suburban and/or Rural area types. When measured
across functional classes, average peak period speeds dropped off sharply between freeways and
arterials, stayed relatively constant between arterials and collectors, and then declined moderately
on local streets.

6.3.3 DATABASE PREPARATION AND PROCESSING

After collection of data from primary source through above mentioned survey, data has been
processed through qualitative and quantitative techniques. The traffic volume data, O-D survey data,
speed and delay survey data, intersection survey data and road capacity data for particular road
links have been recorded in ArcGIS interface. By following the designed checklist (see section
6.5.2.1) all recorded surveyed data are plotted on MS Excel platform for further processing and
analysis. Statistical Package for Social Service (SPSS) have also been used for data processing
and regression analysis.

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The consulting team has used ArcGIS 10.1 platform for geo-spatial representation, analysis and
mapping of surveyed and analyzed data.

6.4 DATA ANALYSIS AND TRAFFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT

To analyze the recorded / surveyed multi-modal traffic database, the consulting team has used MS
Excel, SPSS and ArcGIS 10.1 platform. Several quantitative and statistical analysis technique has
been applied during the study. To achieve comprehensiveness of these analysis in line with main
objective of the study, the study team has performed several traffic modeling techniques. The
consulting team has developed or performed the following analysis or modeling technique-

a. Socioeconomic and Demographic Data Analysis: The study team has developed
regression and growth trend model of demographic scenario (e.g. population, housing,
income level, land price etc.) and forecasted socio-economic scenario. The study has also
performed urbanization trend and growth factor analysis for project influence area also.
b. Regional Traffic Growth Model: Regional Traffic growth model (forecasted scenario) by
using secondary vehicular and traffic data has been developed by the study team. Linear
regression and stochastic forecasting technique was adopted for developing this growth
model. The team has demarcated a number of zones and sub-zones for whole region and
project influence area respectively and performed cross-zonal analysis to differentiate inter-
zonal and intra-zonal growth pattern.
c. Four Step Model - Vehicular Traffic and Travel Demand Forecast: The consulting team
has developed 04 step vehicular traffic and travel demand forecast model for the project
area’s road network by using surveyed traffic volume and flow data. The key segments of
this 04-step model are- Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Modal Choice and traffic
Assignment.
d. Road Network’s Level of Service, Accessibility and Congestion Analysis: The
consulting team has developed existing and proposed road network’s “Level of Service
(LOS)” quantifying model for present and forecasted traffic scenario. Road accessibility,
mobility and congestion index profile of same road networks are also developed by using
traffic flow data, volume survey data, road capacity, speed, delay and congestion survey
data.
Detail of these above mentioned model development strategy and methodology are briefly
discussed in Chapter-07.

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CHAPTER-07
DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT

7.1 GENERAL
The overall structure of the “Urban Traffic Transport Demand and System Performance” model
developed for the proposed project area and existing road networks within it, are developed in two
distinctive bundle of model and analysis tasks. These two buddle of model and analysis are

a) Four Step Model for Traffic Demand Forecast which includes zoning, traffic volume, flow
pattern and capacity analysis, demographic projection, traffic growth factor analysis and
bundle of four separate traffic demand or scenario forecasting model. These four models
are
 Trip Generation
 Trip Distribution
 Modal Split of Mode Choice
 Traffic Assignment

b) Traffic Infrastructure and System Performance Model, which mainly represents

yardstick for measuring “Level of Service (LOS)” of existing traffic system and forecasted
future traffic scenario ( future traffic scenario will be developed during four step modeling).
This system performance model is actually an amalgam of different types of traffic or
vehicular characteristics / parameter analysis. This bundle of model for defining LOS are

 Vehicular Capacity and Flow Pattern of Existing Network or System

 Speed Analysis
 Mobility and Accessibility Analysis
 Delay and Congestion Analysis

Most of the components of both packages and bundle model are conventional, in transportation
modeling terms. What are perhaps less conventional are the features, which justify the term
‘strategic’ that are:
 A restriction in the number of analysis zones and road network.
 The emphasis given to ‘supply-side constraints’ and iterative structure, which achieves
equilibrium between supply and demand.

In the following sections of this chapter, detail approach and methodology, followed by the consulting
team for performing above mentioned traffic modeling and analysis are briefly discussed.

7.2 TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECAST: FOUR-STEP MODEL

Travel Demand Forecasting is a key component of the transportation engineer's technical repertoire.
It allows the engineer to predict the volume of traffic that will use a given transportation element in
the future, whether that element is an existing highway or a potential light-rail route. The history of
demand modeling for person travel has been dominated by the approach that has come to be
referred to as the four-step model (FSM) (Hensher, 2008). The FSM is the primary tool for
forecasting future demand and performance of a transportation system, typically defined at a
regional or sub-regional scale (smaller scales often apply simplified models) (Knoflacher et. al.,
2017).
The Four-Step Model is four separate sub-models that are performed sequentially. The four steps
are trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and trip assignment. Each step in the model requires

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information from the previous step (s). The end product of the Four-Step Model is the demand (the
number of forecasted trips on the network) on each link of the network (Meyer and Miller 2001).

7.2.1 OVERALL 4-STEP MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROCEDURE

The sequential process for traffic demand forecast takes place during this study are as follows:

First, the current situation on the urban structure and travel demand of the study area has been
analyzed based on the results of transportation surveys. Models has been developed by examining
the relationship between the travel demand pattern and exogenous variables such as socio-
economic indicators in the analysis.

Next, the future travel demand has been estimated by entering the exogenous variables in the future
into the estimated models. Examples of necessary exogenous variables are socio-economic data
such as population and employment, and a transportation network plan that has been proposed in
the study.

As mentioned above, the four-step methodology has been applied in this Study. This methodology
composed of four steps, namely: trip generation model, trip distribution model, modal share model,
and traffic assignment model, and each model estimates the respective dimensions of travel
demand sequentially. These four models can be grouped into two types: the first three models
estimate an origin and destination matrix which represents travel demand between areas, and the
last model calculates traffic volume on a transportation network.

7.2.2 TRIP GENERATION

The first step in the approach, “trip generation” model is designed to estimate the number of person
trips leaving from, and/or arriving at in given zones, which is called traffic analysis zones (TAZ). The
next stage of travel demand estimation in this approach is trip distribution. This step consists of
distribution each of the trip production estimated in the first step into various destinations. The third
stage in the traditional approach, modal share, is typically performed right after the trip distribution
is completed. This step distributes the volume of origin and destination travel into various alternative
modes. The last step is an “assignment” model. In this step, the modal trips obtained by the previous
model is distributed on to the network, or more precisely, is assigned on links along the minimum
cost routes between a given origin and destination. These steps are described in the following figure
7-1.

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Figure 7-1: Model Development Approach
7.2.2.1 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ)
Travel is an activity that takes place from one place to another so that spatial structure must be
defined to express specifically where people start and finish their travel and how many people make
their trips. Traffic analysis zones has been established as specific regions in geographic unit by
taking following aspects into consideration.

o Existing administrative boundary and availability of resources in terms of data

o Homogeneity of landuse
o Level of detail required for the evaluation of proposed plans, and so on.

Actually the traffic analysis zone system applied in the Study is determined based on the existing
UC boundary as shown in the following figure 7-2.

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Figure 7-2: Traffic Analysis Zone

7.2.2.2 GROWTH FACTOR MODELING
Growth factor modes tries to predict the number of trips produced or attracted by a house hold or
zone as a linear function of explanatory variables. The models have the following basic equation:

Where Ti is the number of future trips in the zone and ti is the number of current trips in that zone
and fi is a growth factor. The growth factor depends on the explanatory variable such as population
(P) of the zone, average house hold income (I), average vehicle ownership (V). The simplest form
of is represented as follows:

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Where the subscript "d" denotes the design year and the subscript "c" denotes the current year. In
this report assuming that in the future, auto ownership will Increase 80% to meet forecast demand,
assuming that the population and income remains constant.

7.2.2.3 EXISTING SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS BY TAZ

To build models for estimating the number of trips generated, it is necessary to analyze the
relationship between the trip generation and exogenous variables, and to prepare the exogenous
variables in terms of statistics by traffic analysis zone. In practice, the following indicators are
prepared by TAZ.
o Population
o Number of workers at resident place (zone)
o Number of employees at work place (zone)
o Number of students at resident place (zone)

7.2.2.4 NETWORK DATABASE DEVELOPMENT

Urban transportation system on which travel takes place generally consists of various modal
networks, such as the road network for mobile vehicles and transit network for public transportation,
for example, bus route service and railway. Both of the networks are composed of a set of nodes
that represent intersections, junctions and terminals, and a set of links that connect nodes.

Each of the network links should be described by a number of physical characteristics representing
the existing road condition at each section and these characteristics may influence the relationship
between the volume of a link, ‘capacity’ and travel speed. The network database developed for the
Study includes the characteristics listed in the following table.

Table 7-1: Structure of Road Network Database

Sl Road Description Left Right Total Effective Median Sidewalk
No Carriageway Carriageway Lane No Lane No.
Width (Feet) Width (Feet) (Left (Left
+Right) +Right)
1 Banani Flyover to 38.00 43.0 3+3 3+3 Yes Yes
ECB Chattar

2 ECB Chattar To 31.00 30.00 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes

Kalshi Intersection
3 Kalshi to 25.0 25.0 2+2 2+2 Yes No
K.I.H.S
Intersection
Kalshi to Pallbi 30.0 28.0 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes

4 Kalshi to ECB 20.0 22.0 2+2 1+1 Yes Yes

Canteen /
Shagufta Moar
5 ECB Canteen / 25.0 25.0 2+2 2+2 Yes Yes
Shagufta Moar to
Mirpur 12
6 ECB Canteen / 29.0 28.0 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes
Shagufta Moar to
DOHS Gate-01

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7.2.2.5 CAPACITY AND SPEED RELATIONSHIP
When the fastest route between specific pair of zones is searched on a network, travel time on each
link of the network must be calculated in advance. In general, travel speed depends on how much
traffic passes at the same time. In other words, it is apparent that travel speed decreases according
to the increase of traffic volume. The relationship between travel speed and traffic volume is often
called ‘QV’ function.

A QV function for this Study was established with taking the following aspects into consideration:
 Free flow speed is the safe travel speed at which a vehicle would travel along a
road section in the absence of other traffic.
 Capacity is expressed in terms of passenger car units (pcu).
 Link capacity can be expressed in terms of possible capacity and assignment
capacity.

Assignment capacity represents the total number of daily traffic volume which is adjusted of the
possible capacity by the consideration of various factors such as functional classification of a road,
encroachment, peak characteristics and the presence of signals. The proposed QV function applied
in the demand forecast is shown in Table 7-2.

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Table 7-2: QV Functioned by Type of Road

Source: JICA Study

7.2.2.6 TRIP GENERATION MODEL
There are three typical trip generation models commonly used world wide, as follows:
a. Trip rate model
b. Growth rate model
c. Functional model

In this Study, trip rate model was applied.

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Table 7-3: Trip Rate by Trip Purpose
Trip Purpose Trip Rate (trips / person)
To Work 0.31
To School 0.21
Business 0.02
Private 0.10
To Home 0.63
Total 1.27

7.2.2.7 TRIP PRODUCTION AND ATTRACTION MODEL

Trip production and attraction models are to estimate the number of trips originating from and ending
in each zone, while the trip generation model estimates the total number of trips in the Study area.
A multiple regression analysis was applied for finding the relationship between existing trip
production and attraction, and the socio-economic indicators discussed in the previous section, and
the analysis resulted in the following models.

Table 7-4: Trip Production and Attraction Model

The approximately numbers of trip of trip can be estimated as following:

Total trips (produce) per day = Number of trips (sample) x expansion factor.

7.2.3 TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODEL

A trip distribution model is to estimate the number of distributed trips by the combination of origin
and destination (OD) zones, i.e., OD matrices. This is typically performed right after trip production
and attraction are calculated.

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The trip distribution model composes of two models: intra-zonal and inter-zonal model. Each model
estimates different elements of an OD matrix, intra-zonal model estimates the number of trips
leaving and ending inside the same zone and inter-zonal model estimates the number of trips
traveling between different zones.

For the intra-zonal model, the following formula was obtained.

Table 7-5: Intra-zonal Distribution Model

Purpose K a P Y
To Work 0.0120 1.0788 0.1975 0.1216
To School 0.0168 0.8317 0.5018 0.0037
Business 1.8891 0.4858 0.3518 0.1098
Private 1.4401 0.6826 0.2239 0.1529
To Home 0.0084 0.2936 1.0379 0.0146
Source: JICA Study

A typical traditional approach to build an inter-zonal trip distribution model is to use synthetic models.
One of the most commonly used models is the gravity model, which is practically applied of law of
physics (Newton’s gravitational). This aims to estimate travel demand based on the relationship
between trip production, trip attraction, and impedance function between zones such as a travel
distance. This analysis resulted in the following formulas as a trip distribution model.

Table 7-6: Inter-zonal Distribution Model

Purpose K a P Y
To Work 1.0774E-03 0.7400 0.6065 -0.6870
To School 1.2513E+01 0.2659 0.2679 -1.1262
Business 1.4862E+00 0.6078 0.6078 -0.4141
Private 1.0029E+01 0.4203 0.4203 -0.9163
To Home 9.2047E-05 0.7439 0.7439 -0.9429
Source: JICA Study

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The output of a distribution model is a set of elements that show the travel flow between each pair
of zones. However, the row totals of distribution elements do not match with trip productions and the
column totals of distribution elements do not match with trip attractions. Therefore, an iteration has
been carried out until satisfied that the row totals match trip productions and the column totals match
trip attractions.

7.2.3.1 TRIP DISTRIBUTION BY USING O-D MATRIX

The second step is modeling the microscopic flow of forecasted trips from each zone to every other
zone. The trip generation step estimates the number of trips produced and attracted to each zone.
Trip generation is commonly expressed using an O-D (Origin-Destination) matrix. An O-D matrix
operates as an input-output table. Where trip origins in each zone are inputs and trip destinations to
each zone are outputs, which spatially expresses the interaction of trips throughout the study area.
The O-D matrix is the final product of the trip distribution step (Ben-Akiva 2008).

Table 7-7: A general form of a two-dimensional trip matrix (Base year) for sample

Table 7-8: Sample Future Estimated Trip Distribution O-D Matrix

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7.2.4 TRIP ASSIGNMENT
Network assignment or trip assignment is the final stage of the four-step model. Trip assignment
models aim to determine the number of trips on different links (road sections) of the network given
the travel demand between different pairs of nodes (zones). The trip assignment involves assigning
traffic to a transportation network such as roads and streets or a transit network. Network assignment
applies the trip distribution O-D matrix and mode data to the transportation network. There are many
used methods for trip assignment such as all-or-nothing. In all-or-nothing technic all trips between
an origins and a destination assumed to take shortest way.

For this Study, the incremental assignment is employed. The incremental assignment divides the
input OD matrix data into several increments and assigns each increment to the shortest route where
the generalized cost is the least. Once the increments are assigned, link cost of each link is re-
calculated, and the shortest route is found again for the next increments. This calculation is repeated
until the number of designated times.

7.2.5 CALIBRATION OF MODELS

The models have been developed, and a set of network database has established. The last task of
the development procedure is calibration. It is necessary to examine how accurate the developed
models represent the existing transport situation by comparing the output from the models and the
existing transport characteristic surveyed.

In this section, two different ways of calibration are discussed. The first is to compare trip distribution
by each mode estimated with the models and that of calculated based on HIS survey result. This
comparison can check how accurate the models represent existing travel pattern by mode and
distance. The second way compares the traffic demand that can be calculated by traffic assignment
model and observed traffic volume. This calibration work can show how much the network and travel
demand represent appropriately.
7.2 TRAFFIC SYSTEM PERFORMENCE MODEL
The basic terms, normally used to indicate the transportation system performance are Mobility,
Accessibility, Traffic Congestion and resulting Environmental Pollution. According to the NCHRP
report 398, the definitions of these terms are as follows:
a. Mobility is the ability of people and goods to move quickly, easily and cheaply to where they
are destined at a speed that represents free flow and comparably high-quality conditions.
b. Accessibility is the achievement of travel objectives within time limits regarded as
acceptable.
c. Congestion is the roadway traffic condition, which occurs in a particular section of road, in
an intersection or within a network when the capacity of that particular area to accommodate
traffic cannot cope with the demand of that time. It may occur either recurrently or
incidentally. It costs extra travel time, fuel cost and discomfort to the road users. Congestion
is often considered as a situation reciprocal of mobility and accessibility. Hence the
magnitude of congestion during urban peak hours indirectly indicates the level of mobility
and accessibility of that situation. In this study, therefore recurrent traffic congestion is taken
as a major transportation system performance indicator.
d. Environmental pollution means creating imbalance in natural environment. Modern
motorized transportation system is fully dependent on fossil fuel. The use of fossil fuel has
some serious effects on natural environment. The effects are both direct and indirect and
result from the production, use, servicing, and disposal of motor vehicles. Environmental
effects include air and water pollution, ozone depletion, effects on climate, hazardous and
solid waste production, noise pollution, loss of habitat, species and biodiversity, and reduced
visibility (ICF, 1997). Out of all, the air pollution is most direct impact of transportation

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activities on environment (Bhuiyan, 2001). For this reason, air pollution is taken as indicator
of environmental pollution.

The following section discusses all the performance indicator analysis and modeling strategy in
brief.
7.2.1 Level of Service (LOS)
The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1985) introduced the concept of Level of service (LOS) to
denote level of facility one can derive from a road under different operating characteristics and traffic
volume. The level of service demotes the level of facility one can derive from a road under different
operating characteristics and traffic volume. The concept of level of service is defined as a qualitative
measure describing the operational conditions with a traffic stream, and their perception by motorists
or passengers. The factors that to be considered in evaluating the levels of service are:
 Speed and travel time
 Traffic interruptions and restrictions
 Freedom to maneuver
 Driving comfort and convenience
 Economy

7.2.1.1 Classification of Level of Service

There are six designated level of service. Each represents a range of extreme of which is defined
by the upper volume limit and the lower speed limit. The six levels of services and their standards
are discussed here by their flow of characteristics, volume, average overall travel speed, freedom
to maneuver, driving comfort and convenience. The TRB (Highway Capacity Manual) utilizes travel
speed and the ratio of the service volume to capacity, depending upon the particular problem. The
latter is often refer to as v/c ratio in Manual. For urban location, the Manual recommends the use of
average overall travel speed. There are six level of service selected by manual. These are termed
by letter A, B, C, D, E and F. Level A represent the highest and level F represent the lowest operating
condition.
Table 7-9: Classification of Level of Service
Level of Service Description
(LOS)
A  This is a condition of free flow accompanied by low volume and high
speed.
 Traffic density will be low with uninterrupted flow speed controlled by
driver’s desires, speed limit and physical roadway condition.
 There is little or no restriction in maneuverability due to the presence of
other vehicles and drivers can maintain their desired speed with little or no
delay.

B  This occurs in the zone of stable flow with operating speeds beginning to
be restricted by traffic conditions.

 Drivers will have reasonable freedom to select their speed and lane of
operations.
 Reduction in speed is reasonable with a low probability of traffic flow being
restricted.

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C  This is the zone of stable flow but speeds and maneuverability are more
closely controlled by higher volumes.
 Moist of the drivers are restricted in their freedom to select their own
speed, lane changing or overtaking maneuvers.
 A relatively satisfactory operating speed is still obtained if service volumes
are suitable for urban design.
D  This level of service approaches unstable flow with tolerable operating
speeds being maintained, though considerably affected by changing in
operating condition.
 Drivers have little freedom to maneuver, and comfort and convenience are
low.
 These conditions can be tolerated for short periods of time.
E  This stage cannot be described by speed alone, but represents operations
at lower operating speeds with volumes at or near the capacity of the road.
 Flow is unstable and there may be stoppage of momentary duration.

F  In this stage, forced flow condition prevails with low speeds, where
volumes are below capacity.
 Speeds are reduced substantially and stoppages may occur for short or
long periods of time due to downstream congestion.
 In the extreme, both speed and volume can drop to zero.

Source: TRB, 1985

Thus LOS ‘A’ means free flow with low volume and high speed, LOS ‘B’ means reasonably free
flow, but speed beginning to be restricted by traffic condition, LOS ‘C’ means stable flow zone but
most drivers restricted in freedom to select their own speed.
LOS ‘D’ means approaching unstable flow, drivers have little freedom to maneuver, LOS ‘E’ means
almost unstable flow, volumes reach near at the capacity of the highway, LOS ‘F’ means unstable
flow may be short stoppages.
Generally it is believed that if the level of service stays between A to C, the traffic operating condition
of the total road is efficient. When level of service drop down to D, the operation condition is marginal
and the condition become inefficient for traffic movement when the level falls down to E and F. LOS
C has generally been established as the standard for design of transportation facilities for peak hour
traffic condition. LOS ‘D’, however is often accepted in urbanized areas where costs or impacts of
providing ‘LOS’ C are prohibitive. But LOS ‘D’ is the area of concern and of growth keeps on
continuing problems will likely to occur in future. LOS ‘E’ and LOS ‘F’ indicates the problem areas.

Table 7-10: Standard Level of Service

Level of Volume Capacity Ratio Speed Flow Condition
Service (Kph)
A <=0.6 >=40 Free flow
B <=0.7 >=30 Stable flow

C <=0.8 >=25 Stable flow

D <=0.9 >=15 Unstable flow

E <=1 <15 Unstable

F >1 0 Forced flow

Source: Kadiyali, 2006

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7.2.1.2 ROADWAY CAPACITY ANALYSIS
Capacity is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be
expected to traverse a point or a uniform section of a lane or a roadway during a given time period
under a prevailing roadway traffic and control condition (TRB,1985). Capacity normally is expressed
as persons or vehicles per hour. If the composition of traffic varies significantly than the capacity is
converted in a same passenger car unit (PCU) per hour. The consulting team has calculated
roadway capacity for all segments by using the following equation.

Here, V= speed in kph

S= Average spacing in meters of moving vehicles.

According to DITS, 1994 the design capacity of an urban arterial road is 14000 PCU/hour.

7.2.1.3 STUDIES OF SPEED

Speed is the rate of movement of traffic or specified components of traffic and is expressed in metric
unit kilometers per hour (K. P.H.). Theoretically,

Speed of travel is a simple and widely used measure of the quality of traffic flow. Basically, speed is
the total distance traversed divided by the time of travel. Speed is commonly expressed in miles
(kilometers) per hour or feet (meter) per hour second. Travel times are usually measured for the
peak hour conditions and non-peak hour conditions. Speed is the rate of movement of traffic of
specific components of traffic. There are three types of speed
 Spot speed
 Running speed
 The journey speed

A. Running Speed
Running speed is the average speed maintained by a vehicle over a given course whiles the vehicle
in motion. For instance the running speed is the speed value used for the purpose of the capacity
determinations. It is also a speed that can be used as a measure of the level of service offered by a
highway section over a long period of time.

B. Journey Speed
Journey speed also known as overall travel speed, is the effective speed of a vehicle between two
points, and its distance between two points divided by the total time taken by the vehicle to complete
the journey, including all delays incurred en-route. Thus

C. Journey Speed and Running Speed Calculation

The flow in north bound can be calculated using formula:

Where,
qn = Flow in the north bound direction
xs = Opposing traffic count of vehicles met when the test vehicle traveling south

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yn = Number of vehicle overtaking the test vehicle minus the number of vehicles overtaken by
the test vehicle, when the test vehicle is traveling north.
ts = Average journey time in south direction
tn = Average journey time in north direction

D. Determination of Average Journey Time

The formula of average journey time is.

Where,
tn = Mean journey time in the north bound direction
tn = Average journey time in north direction
yn = Number of vehicle overtaking the test vehicle minus the number of vehicles overtaken by
the test vehicle, when the test vehicle is traveling north.
qn = Flow in the north bound direction

E. Methods of Measuring Running Speed and Journey Speed

The methods commonly used for measuring running speed and journey speed are
 Moving observer method
 Registration number method
 Elevated observer method

F. Adopted Method- Moving Observer Method

In this method, the speed and flow can be obtained by traveling in a test vehicle (car/bus/rickshaw)
against and with the flow, and noting down the journey time, the number of vehicles met with from
the opposite direction and the number of vehicles overtaking the test vehicle and overtaken by the
test vehicle.
A test vehicle makes a series of test runs in each direction over the route under study. For reliable
results a minimum of two test runs (one peak and one off-peak) should be made in each direction
under comparable condition. The method is applicable to two way routes only. It has been found to
be economical and to produce satisfactory, unbiased estimates of volume and travel time The
proposed flyover route from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS via Kalshi moar had been divided into
sections. The data required, which are recorded for each section along the route, include
a. Travel time
b. Opposing traffic
c. Overtaking traffic
d. Overtaken traffic

7.2.1.4 DELAY STUDY

Delay is tiresome common phenomena in vehicular service and the consulting team collected two
types of delay data, the fixed delay and the operational delay during speed survey and intersection
survey.

Operational Delay: The delays caused by the intersection of various factors such as congestion,
inadequacy of carriageway widths, mixed traffic congestion, parked cars and heavy pedestrian flow
is called congestion delay or operational delay. This kind of delay is difficult to be measured
precisely.
Fixed delay: The delays occurring due to predefined stopping at the signal is called the fixed delay.
It can be easily recorded by a stopwatch. The fixed delay usually occur in case of roadway
intersections, railway crossing and stop sign. Generally moving observer method is used for the
delay study.

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7.2.2 TRAFFIC MOBILITY AND CONGESTION STUDY
7.2.2.1 QUANTIFYING TRAFFIC CONGESTION
According to the review of various literatures and reports, the traffic congestion measures can be
broadly categorized into six categories (NCHRP, 1997). These are as follows:
 Early empirical concepts;
 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) related concept;
 Lane occupancy rate and queues;
 Travel time measures;
 Miscellaneous measures (e.g. headway distribution);
 Traffic flow per effective lane measures and congestion indices.
 Measure of mobility level by peak hour volume-capacity ratio or peak hour average link
speed.

Empirical measures (such as Green Shield’s quality of transmission index) are difficult to visualize
and comprehend, require extensive data collection and complicate any statistical analyses, relate
specifically automobile and truck and thus lack applicability to several other modes of travel,
(NCHRP, 1997).

HCM related measures are primarily based upon Level of Service determination. Such measures
are easy to understand but require detail site and location specific input data and in some instances,
the application of complex models. These measures are well suited to analyze intersections or short
roadway section problems but not well suited for policy or large scale planning analyses (NCHRP,
1997).

Lane occupancy rates, travel time, headway distribution etc. are direct measures and need real-
time traffic information. The primary problems with these direct measures are that, they are difficult
to use in predicting future congestion levels. Again it is difficult to address non-technical audiences
without meaningful summary of congestion statistics. These difficulties have led many to suggest
the need for a Surrogate measures called congestion indices (NCHRP, 1997).
The consulting team has calculated two types of congestion index – Roadway Congestion Index
(RCI) for regional congestion and Multimodal Congestion Index (MCI) or Volume-Capacity Index
(VCI) for separate link or road segments congestion scenario during peak period.

Roadway Congestion Index (RCI): The overall regional Volume/Capacity ratio is a useful indicator
of regional congestion (Shrank and Lomax, 1998). Shrank and Lomax define their “Roadway
Congestion Index”, RCI, as a weighted average Volume/Capacity ratio comprising Freeway and
Principle Arterial components. The equation is:

RCI = [(FV/FC)*FW + (AV/AC)*AW] / [FW +AW]

Where,
FV = Regional Freeway Volume, Vehicle-miles / day
AV = Regional Arterial Volume, Vehicle-miles / day
To further illustrate the significance of RCI, it is useful to define,
FC = Freeway Nominal Capacity = 13000 * FLM veh-mile/day
AC =Arterial nominal Capacity = 5000 * ALM veh-mile/day.

For the present study on Dhaka, the road network is not well classified. Again this study is being
carried out for a four-hour peak period rather than whole day. So accordingly the equation for RCI
is modified for the present study it stands as

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Where,
LV = Link volume in Vehicle-km in peak hour = Vehicle per peak hour * Link Length.
LC = Link nominal capacity = Total capacity in vehicle per peak hour.
LW = (Capacity per Lane per Peak hour)*LV

After further generalization, the equation for calculating RCI transformed as

Here the RCI stands as the network weighted average volume capacity ratio, which indicates the
index value of extra vehicle kilometer travel needed due to congestion in peak hours.

Multimodal Congestion Index (MCI) or Volume-Capacity Index (VCI):

The equation leads to define the Multimodal “Volume / Capacity Index” (VCI) as follows:

Where:
RVs = Total (all Modes) System Demand Volume, Vehicle-kilometer per peak hour.
RVnc= Summed effective volume (Vehicle-kilometer per peak hour) of non-
congesting elements or links.
RCc = Summed Effective capacity (Vehicle-kilometer per peak hour) of all
congesting sub-systems.
7.2.2.2 MOBILITY LEVEL
Sometimes the mobility level of an individual link is measured by volume-capacity ratio. Such type
of measure is proposed by Houston-Galveston Council of Traffic Modeling (HGAC, 1998), which is
shown in Table 7-11. The consulting has identified mobility level for peak and off-peak period for
each road section by using the following table.

Table 7-11: Scale of Different Mobility Levels

Level of Mobility Volume / Capacity

Tolerable < 0.85

Moderate >= 0.85 < 1.00

Serious >= 1.00 < 1.25

Severe >= 1.25

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CHAPTER-08
TRAVEL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

8.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

In this chapter, the consulting team has briefly discussed the existing pattern and volume of travel
demand of project area’s road network with comparison to existing capacity in terms of vehicular
movement. The existing travel demand has been based on the outputs of traffic volume survey,
conducted at different road segments of the proposed study area. All these survey including survey
outputs are measured by following supply side traffic scale measurement in order to define the
existing traffic demand. Existing roadway vehicular capacity based on number of existing lane or
space with standardized conversion is used in this study to define the current supply scenario.
8.2 EXISTING TRAFFIC CAPACITY OR SUPPLY
In term of field survey, geometric features was surveyed eventually to find out the capacity of the
road and adequacy of the Right of Way (ROW) width. To observe and explore the actual operational
condition of the study area lots of photographs were taken and analyzed.
Geometric features like Right of way (ROW) width, carriage way, median, sidewalk etc. data
collection procedures and analysis are discussed below. There exist sidewalk for pedestrian traffic.
To propose bus bay in the bus stops far-side intersection placement is desirable. From literature
review, it is found to be 75m away from intersection, which is standard for an urban area. The
following Table 8-1, shows the geometric feature matrix of existing road networks within the study
area.
During field survey, the consultant team has identified that, 100 % of carriageway of each road
section are not being usually used for traffic flow. Almost one-third of carriageway of each road
section, occupied by standing traffic, pedestrian or other types of road sides activities. So the
consulting team has classified the whole carriageway for each road section as designed carriageway
width and effective carriageway width. According to roads and highway traffic manual each lane (10-
12 feet wide) can provide vehicular capacity of 1400 PCU/ hour.

Table 8-1: Geometric Feature Description of Surveyed Existing Road Networks

Sl Road Left Right Total Effective Median Sidewalk
No Description Carriageway Carriageway Lane Lane No.
Width (Feet) Width (Feet) No (Left (Left
+Right) +Right)
1 Banani Flyover 38.00 43.0 3+3 3+3 Yes Yes
to ECB Chattar
2 ECB Chattar 31.00 30.00 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes
To Kalshi
Intersection
3 Kalshi to 25.0 25.0 2+2 2+2 Yes No
K.I.H.S
Intersection
Kalshi to Pallbi 30.0 28.0 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes
4 Kalshi to ECB 20.0 22.0 2+2 1+1 Yes Yes
Canteen /
Shagufta Moar

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5 ECB Canteen / 25.0 25.0 2+2 2+2 Yes Yes
Shagufta Moar
to Mirpur 12
6 ECB Canteen / 29.0 28.0 3+3 2+2 Yes Yes
Shagufta Moar
to DOHS Gate-
01

8.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME SURVEY ANALYSIS

In term of field survey, geometric features was surveyed eventually to find out the capacity of the
road and adequacy of the Right of Way (ROW) width. To observe and explore the actual operational
condition of the study area lots of photographs were taken and analyzed.
The consulting team had conducted their very own traffic survey in order to verify the authenticity of
the collected data and to adjust the past matrices in accordance with the present traffic scenario. As
the landuse pattern and traffic usage characteristics of the studied region or proposed study area,
are very dynamic in nature, a rigorous study of traffic was warranted to get a reliable forecast.
Accordingly, a survey program was developed and three different types of surveys were undertaken:

 Road Traffic Manual Counts

 Traffic Intersection Survey
 Traffic Speed and Delay Survey
The following Figure 8-1 shows the locations or segments selected for traffic volume count and
Figure 8-2 shows the selected intersection for traffic flow qeue survey including travel time and delay
survey.

Figure 8-1: Traffic Volume Survey Locations

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Figure 8-2: Location of Traffic Channelization and Intersection Survey including Road
segments for Travel Time and Delay Survey

8.2.1 TRAFFIC COUNT DATA

The traffic counts were undertaken from 26th February, 2019. The consultant have employed both
manual counting and tally sheet based recording to cross check the validity collected data. All the
surveyors deployed by the consulting team were final year civil engineering and urban planning
students of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology and had previous exposure to
transportation engineering surveying techniques. This expertise has enabled to achieve a better
collection of data as verified in cross check with verification survey.
The consultant team has employed different groups of surveyors to various strategically selected
traffic count locations for 13 hours (from 7.30 am to 10.30 pm) of the selected day.
8.2.2 TRAFFIC CATEGORIAL COUNTING
Though Roads and Highways Department (RHD) has ten standard motorized vehicle classes, the
consultant have employed eight classes of motorized vehicles for suitability to be used in the model.
These classes are:
 Truck
 Large Bus/Mini Bus
 Pickup
 Car
 Laguna/Tampu / Duranto
 CNG/ Auto rickshaw
 Moto Cycle
 Trailor/ Lorry
8.2.3 TRAFFIC COUNT FORMAT OR SHEET
The traffic count sheet was designed as a general one to be used by all the surveyors. Provision of
inclusion for traffic counts at strategically selected time packs (usually 15 minutes) was provided. All
the surveyors were required to put in their names, date, time, location, position and weather
conditions in every sheet. At intersection counts all the surveyors are teamed under a station
supervisor who coordinates and synchronizes the process. The prepared traffic count data sheet is
shown in Figure 8-3.

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Figure 8-3: The Traffic Count Sheet
8.2.4 TRAFFIC COUNTING AND SURVEY
Basically the consultant team has used two types of survey locations:
 Intersection count location;
 Screen line count location.

Detail of screen line counting survey is discussed in section 8.3 and 8.4 whereas, intersection count
survey is discussed in section 8.5. The following pictures shows, traffic counting field activities of
the deployed survey team.

Photo 8-1: Traffic Counting By the Survey Team both at Day Time and Night hours

During this survey period we have collected data on both day and night traffic for several days to
get the proper idea on average traffic volume. But manual traffic counting is error prone and past
experience shows us that it tends to underestimate the total counting as it gets increasingly difficult
to count all the vehicles in a congested stream.

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8.3 SCREEN LINE TRAFFIC COUNTING AND ESTIMATION
Screen line traffic volume analysis actually refers detail investigation of traffic volume for different
road selected segments of the proposed study area. Figure 8-1 shows the screen line or road
segment based traffic counting locations used by the survey during their survey. The survey team
had collected traffic volume data for 8 classified vehicle types (described in section 8.2.2) for every
15 minutes. The traffic data analyst of the consulting team later converted those 15 mins based
manual tally sheet in to an hourly based vehicle volume sheet in MS Excel (see Figure 8-4).

Traffic Count Sheet

Location : Kalshi intersection to ECB Chattar Date: 26.02.2019
Starting Time : from To Weather Condition:
Time
Trailor/
Large Laguna/T CNG/ Transsit
Moto
Ser Truck Bus/Mini Pickup Car ampu/Du Autoricks Mixture/
From To Cycle
Bus ranto haw Water/
Oil Lorry
1 7.30 -8.30 am 8.30 am 2 211 66 750 23 205 152 2
2 8.30 -9.30 am 9.30 am 3 229 85 792 25 220 163 8
3 9.30 -10.30 am 10.30 am 3 183 92 863 27 239 177 5
4 10.30 -11.30 am 11.30 am 2 199 101 940 29 260 192 0
5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 12.30pm 1 181 91 855 26 239 174 3
6 12.30 -1.30 pm 1.30 pm 2 164 81 778 23 217 158 2
7 1.30 -2.30 pm 2.30 pm 1 149 73 707 20 197 143 3
8 2.30 -3.30 pm 3.30 pm 2 124 140 643 15 276 130 0
9 3.30- 4.30 pm 4.30 pm 2 112 127 712 13 251 118 1
10 4.30 -5.30 pm 5.30 pm 5 122 138 914 14 273 128 5
11 5.30 -6.30 pm 6.30 pm 4 132 150 996 15 312 139 7
12 6.30 -7.30 pm 7.30 pm 3 143 163 1080 16 340 151 15
13 7.30 -8.30 pm 8.30 pm 52 252 275 1172 17 442 164 17
14 8.30 -9.30 pm 9.30 pm 72 229 250 1066 15 401 149 7
15 9.30 -10.30 pm 10.30 pm 124 189 227 970 13 331 121 15
Figure 8-4: Hourly Based Traffic Screen Line Survey Data Sheet in MS Excel

To convert the manually counted road the consulting team has used standard multiplying factor or
passenger car unit (PCU) for each type of vehicles (see Table 8-2).

Table 8-2: Standard PCU Conversion Factors for All Classified Vehicle Types (Source:
LGED Road Design Manual)
Vehicle Large Laguna/ CNG/ Moto Trailor/
Truck Pickup Car
Type Bus/Mini Tampu/ Autorick Cycle Lorry
PCU
2 3.5 1 1 1 0.8 0.5 4
factor

The consultant team has calculated total daily traffic for surveyed 13.0 hours and estimated average
daily traffic (ADT) including annual average daily traffic by applying the above mention PCU factors
and conversion factors (For estimating ADT, 15 % of overall counted traffic considered as traffic for
11.00 pm to 7.00 am and 95 % of estimated ADT has been considered as AADT). Detail tabular
estimation traffic estimating sheet is shown in Table 8-3.

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Table 8-3: Estimating ADT and AADT
Large Laguna/T CNG/ Moto Trailor/ Adjusted ADT
SL. No Time Truck Pickup Car ADT (13.0 Hours) AADT
Bus/Mini ampu/Du Autoricks Cycle Transsit (24.0 Hours)
1 7.30 -8.30 am 16 833 142 1069 199 350.4 239.5 144 2993 3442
2 8.30 -9.30 am 18 850.5 168 1080 212 353.6 242.5 172 3097 3561
3 9.30 -10.30 am 10 917 172 1095 221 366.4 248 220 3249 3737
4 10.30 -11.30 am 14 927.5 165 1061 235 345.6 255.5 260 3264 3753
5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 6 840 153 1071 217 328.8 247.5 192 3055 3514
6 12.30 -1.30 pm 10 787.5 132 1091 201 308 243 144 2917 3354
7 1.30 -2.30 pm 12 735 101 1041 163 303.2 250.5 84 2690 3093
8 2.30 -3.30 pm 16 787.5 91 1040 48 302.4 261.5 48 2594 2984
43869
9 3.30- 4.30 pm 10 763 78 1031 58 278.4 249.5 72 2540 2921
10 4.30 -5.30 pm 12 808.5 71 973 65 260 237.5 48 2475 2846
11 5.30 -6.30 pm 24 885.5 65 931 78 238.4 215.5 32 2469 2840
12 6.30 -7.30 pm 30 955.5 69 721 91 231.2 201 20 2319 2667
13 7.30 -8.30 pm 78 938 79 604 104 228.8 179 0 2211 2542
14 8.30 -9.30 pm 90 868 86 516 124 220 172.5 100 2177 2503
15 9.30 -10.30 pm 136 696.5 102 498 114 212 167.5 180 2106 2422
Total 482 12593 1674 13822 2130 4327.2 3410.5 1716 40155 46178

8.4 DETAIL SCREEN LINE VOLUME ANALYSIS

The consultant team has selected the following road segments for screen line or roadway segment
based traffic survey and analysis. These sections are

Table 8-4: Selected Screen Line or Road Segments for Volume Analysis
SL. Screen Line or Road Left Bound Segment Right Bound
No Segment Segment
1 Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to ECB ECB Chattar to Banani
ECB Chattar Chattar Flyover
2 ECB Chattar to Kalshi ECB Chattar to Kalshi Kalshi Moar to ECB
Moar Moar Chattar
3 Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi to Kalshi
Pallabi Pallabi K.I.H.S Moar
4 Kalshi Moar to ECB Kalshi Moar to ECB ECB Canteen /
Canteen / Shagufta Canteen / Shagufta Shagufta Moar to
Moar Moar Kalshi Moar
5 ECB Canteen / ECB Canteen / Mirpur 12 to ECB
Shagufta Moar to Shagufta Moar to Canteen / Shagufta
Mirpur 12 Mirpur 12 Moar
6 ECB Canteen / ECB Canteen / Mirpur DOHS Gate-01
Shagufta Moar to Shagufta Moar to to ECB Canteen /
Mirpur DOHS Gate- Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 Shagufta Moar
01

The total estimated and counted average daily traffic (ADT) and Annual Average Daily Traffic
(AADT) for all these six screen or road section are given in Table 8-4 and graphically shown in
Figure 8-5.

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Table 8-4: Road Section wise Calculated and Estimated ADT and AADT (in PCU Value)
Calcculated PCU
Laguna/T CNG/
Large Bus/Mini Moto Trailor/ ADT (13.0 Adjusted ADT
Road Section Truck Pickup Car ampu/Du Autoricks AADT
Bus Cycle Lorry Hours) (24.0 Hours)
ranto haw
Banani Flyover to ECB Chattar 1340 21798 2781 29683 2650 7633 5244 3356 74484 85657 81374
ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar 1236 17108 2691 31363 1171 7192 4204 1956 62754 72167 68559
Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi 934 17070 3643 28740 942 7249 3501 676 41140 47310 44945
Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen / Shagufta
842 20566 2849 18868 520 7553 3001 552 68806 79127 75171
Moar
ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur
696 16734 1566 10814 1189 6416 3037 688 20338 23389 22220
12
ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur
564 14539 1883 21045 1272 2966 2123 1080 32352 37205 35344
DOHS Gate-01
Grand Total 344855 327612

Figure 8-5: Road Section Wise Calculated and Estimated ADT and AADT (in PCU Value)

The following Figure 8-6 shows the overall traffic modal composition for all the selected road
segments area. it is noticeable that car and large / mini bus are the dominant modal share for the
proposed project area’s road network.

Figure 8-6: Overall Modal Composition

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Figure 8-7: Vehicular Composition with Volume for Selected Road Segments

Figure 8-7 shows Kalshi Moar to Pallabi, ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar and Banani Flyover to ECB
Chattar, these 03 sections has superior traffic load specially huge amount of car and buses with
comparison to other 03 road segments.
8.4.1 SREEN LINE OR ROAD SEGMENT WISE ANALYSIS
In this section the consulting team members has briefly discussed traffic flow pattern for each
selected road segments under screen line survey. It consists, overall traffic composition, hourly basis
traffic flow pattern for each selected road segments (for both left bound and right bound traffic).
The following Table 8-6 shows overall traffic volume (for both left bound and right bound) in all
segments of selected road sections.

Table 8-6: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Distribution for All Surveyed Road Segments
Calcculated PCU
Segment Large Laguna/T CNG/ Adjusted
Segment Name Moto Trailor/ ADT (13.0
Direction Truck Bus/Mini Pickup Car ampu/Du Autoricks ADT (24.0 AADT
Cycle Lorry Hours)
Bus ranto haw Hours)
Left Banani Flyover to ECB
482 12593 1674 13822 2130 4327 3411 1716 40155 46178 43869
Bound Chattar
Right ECB Chattar to Banani
858 9205 1107 15861 520 3306 1833 1640 34330 39479 37505
Bound Flyover
Left
ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar 378 7903 1584 15502 651 3886 2371 316 32591 37480 35606
Bound
Right
Kalshi Moar to ECB Chattar 556 9167 2059 13238 291 3362 1130 360 30162 34687 32952
Bound
Left Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to
286 11400 790 5630 229 4190 1872 192 24588 28277 26863
Bound Pallabi
Right Pallabi to Kalshi K.I.H.S
410 5334 776 5184 960 2226 1166 496 16551 19034 18082
Bound Moar
Left Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen
154 9205 1107 15861 312 740 957 584 28920 33258 31595
Bound / Shagufta Moar
Right ECB Canteen / Shagufta
428 12485 1653 13809 2058 4327 3411 1716 39886 45869 43576
Bound Moar to Kalshi Moar
Left ECB Canteen / Shagufta
440 1918 187 2046 46 215 186 624 5662 6511 6185
Bound Moar to Mirpur 12
Right Mirpur 12 to ECB Canteen /
388 6419 162 4991 24 578 1935 180 14677 16878 16034
Bound Shagufta Moar
ECB Canteen / Shagufta
Left
Moar to Mirpur DOHS Gate- 564 2219 649 7799 326 740 957 124 13378 15385 14615
Bound
01
Right Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 to ECB
458 767 115 15988 39 870 477 260 18974 21820 20729
Bound Canteen / Shagufta Moar

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8.4.1.1 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT BANANI TO ECB CHATTAR SECTION
The following Figure 8-8 shows the left bound and right bound traffic volume for Banani Flyover to
ECB Chattar Section. Car and large bus / mini bus are the dominant modal share for both direction
of the road segments. Due to considered as entry traffic point and traffic signal point waiting time
left bound traffic volume is recorded more than right bound traffic. Average Daily Traffic for Left
Bound and Right Bound Traffic for this road segment are 46178 PCU and 39479 PCU respectively

Figure 8-8: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for Banani Flyover to ECB Chattar
Section

Figure 8-9 shows the modal share or vehicular composition of vehicular traffic for this road segment.

Figure 8-9: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for Banani Flyover To ECB Chattar
Road Segment
The consulting team members has not been able to identify any distinctive off-peak and peak period
during the whole day of traffic count. In morning section traffic flow is found as quite high and it starts
gradually decreasing after 12.00 pm. After 4.00 pm again it starts increasing. But overall fluctuation

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level is very low. Figure 8-10 shows hourly traffic flow variation (in PCU Scale) for both Left Bound
and Right Bound Traffic of this Section.

Figure 8-10: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right
Bound Traffic of Banani Flyover- ECB Chattar Section.
8.4.1.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT ECB CHATTAR TO KALSHI MOAR SECTION
The following Figure 8-11 shows the left bound and right bound traffic volume for ECB Chattar to
Kalshi Moar Section. Car and large bus / mini bus are the dominant modal share for both direction
of the road segments. Due to considered as entry traffic point and traffic signal point waiting time
left bound traffic volume is recorded more than right bound traffic. Average Daily Traffic for Left
Bound and Right Bound Traffic for this road segment are 37480 PCU and 34687 PCU respectively.

Figure 8-11: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar
Section

Figure 8-12 shows the modal share or vehicular composition of vehicular traffic for this road
segment.

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Figure 8-12: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar
Road Segment

The consulting team members has not been able to identify any distinctive off-peak and peak period
during the whole day of traffic count. In morning section traffic flow is found as quite high and it starts
gradually decreasing after 12.00 pm. After 4.00 pm again it starts increasing. But overall fluctuation
level is very low. Figure 8-13 shows hourly traffic flow variation (in PCU Scale) for both Left Bound
and Right Bound Traffic of this Section.

Figure 8-13: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right
Bound Traffic of Banani Flyover- ECB Chattar Section

8.4.1.3 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT KALSHI K.I.H.S MOAR TO PALLABI SECTION

The following Figure 8-14 shows the left bound and right bound traffic volume for Kalshi K.I.H.S
Moar to Pallabi Section. Car and large bus / mini bus are the dominant modal share for both direction
of the road segments. Due to considered as entry traffic point and traffic signal point waiting time
left bound traffic volume is recorded more than right bound traffic. Average Daily Traffic for Left
Bound and Right Bound Traffic for this road segment are 30162 PCU and 24588 PCU respectively.

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Figure 8-14: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabir
Section

Figure 8-15 shows the modal share or vehicular composition of vehicular traffic for this road
segment.

Figure 8-15: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi
Road Segment

The consulting team members has not been able to identify any distinctive off-peak and peak period
during the whole day of traffic count. In morning section traffic flow is found as quite high and it starts
gradually decreasing after 12.00 pm. After 4.00 pm again it starts increasing. But overall fluctuation
level is very low. Figure 8-16 shows hourly traffic flow variation (in PCU Scale) for both Left Bound
and Right Bound Traffic of this Section.

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Figure 8-16: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right
Bound Traffic of Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi Section.

8.4.1.4 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT KALSHI TO ECB CANTEEN / SHAGUFTA SECTION

The following Figure 8-17 shows the left bound and right bound traffic volume for Kalshi Moar to
ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Section. Car and large bus / mini bus are the dominant modal share
for both direction of the road segments. Due to considered as entry traffic point and traffic signal
point waiting time left bound traffic volume is recorded more than right bound traffic. Average Daily
Traffic for Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic for this road segment are 30162 PCU and 24588 PCU
respectively.

Figure 8-17: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar Section

Figure 8-18 shows the modal share or vehicular composition of vehicular traffic for this road
segment.

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Figure 8-18: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar Road Segment

The consulting team members has not been able to identify any distinctive off-peak and peak period
during the whole day of traffic count. In morning section traffic flow is found as quite high and it starts
gradually decreasing after 12.00 pm. After 4.00 pm again it starts increasing. But overall fluctuation
level is very low. Figure 8-19 shows hourly traffic flow variation (in PCU Scale) for both Left Bound
and Right Bound Traffic of this Section.

Figure 8-19: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right
Bound Traffic of Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Section.

8.4.1.5 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT ECB CANTEEN / SHAGUFTA MOAR TO MIRPUR 12

The following Figure 8-20 shows the left bound and right bound traffic volume for ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12 Section. Car and large bus / mini bus are the dominant modal share for
both direction of the road segments. Due to considered as entry traffic point and traffic signal point
waiting time left bound traffic volume is recorded more than right bound traffic. Average Daily Traffic

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for Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic for this road segment are 6511 PCU and 16878 PCU
respectively.

Figure 8-20: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar
to Mirpur 12 Section

Figure 8-21 shows the modal share or vehicular composition of vehicular traffic for this road
segment.

Figure 8-21: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to
Mirpur 12 Road Segment

The consulting team members has not been able to identify any distinctive off-peak and peak period
during the whole day of traffic count. In morning section traffic flow is found as quite high and it starts
gradually decreasing after 12.00 pm. After 4.00 pm again it starts increasing. But overall fluctuation
level is very low. Figure 8-22 shows hourly traffic flow variation (in PCU Scale) for both Left Bound
and Right Bound Traffic of this Section.

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Figure 8-22: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right
Bound Traffic of ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12 Section.
8.4.1.6 TRAFFIC VOLUME AT ECB CANTEEN / SHAGUFTA MOAR TO MIRPUR DOHS
GATE-01
The following Figure 8-23 shows the left bound and right bound traffic volume for ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 Section. Car and large bus / mini bus are the dominant
modal share for both direction of the road segments. Due to considered as entry traffic point and
traffic signal point waiting time left bound traffic volume is recorded more than right bound traffic.
Average Daily Traffic for Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic for this road segment are 15385 PCU
and 21820 PCU respectively.

Figure 8-23: Left Bound and Right Bound Traffic Volume for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar
to Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 Section

Figure 8-24 shows the modal share or vehicular composition of vehicular traffic for this road
segment.

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Figure 824: Vehicular Composition of Vehicular Traffic for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to
Mirpur 12 Road Segment

The consulting team members has not been able to identify any distinctive off-peak and peak period
during the whole day of traffic count. In morning section traffic flow is found as quite high and it starts
gradually decreasing after 12.00 pm. After 4.00 pm again it starts increasing. But overall fluctuation
level is very low. Figure 8-25 shows hourly traffic flow variation (in PCU Scale) for both Left Bound
and Right Bound Traffic of this Section.

Figure 8-25: Hourly Traffic Flow Variation (In PCU Scale) for both Left Bound and Right
Bound Traffic of Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar Section.

8.4.2 PEAK & OFF-PEAK VOLUME

The consulting team has not identified any major fluctuation among peak and off-peak traffic volume.
To illustrate the variation in Traffic for peak and off-peak periods the consultant team has divided
the whole day into three segments as
a. Morning Peak Hour ( from 7.30 am to 12.30 Pm)
b. Afternoon Off-peak Hour (From 12.30 pm to 3.30 pm)
c. Evening Peak Hour ( from 3.30 pm to 8.30 Pm)

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The following Figures from Figure 8-26 to Figure 8-35 shows peak and off-peak traffic volume
variation for both bounds of selected road segments.

Figure 8-26: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Banani Flyover to ECB Chattar
Road Section

Figure 8-27: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Chattar to Banani Flyover
Road Section

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Figure 8-28: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar
Road Section

Figure 8-29: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Kalshi Moar to ECB Chattar
Road Section

Figure 8-30: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi
Road Section

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Figure 8-30: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Pallabi to Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar
Road Section

Figure 8-30: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar Road Section

Figure 8-31: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar
to Kalshi Moar Road Section

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Figure 8-32: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar
to Mirpur 12 Road Section

Figure 8-33: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Mirpur 12 to ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar Road Section

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Figure 8-34: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar
to Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 Road Section

Figure 8-35: Peak and Off-peak Traffic Volume Variation for Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 to ECB
Canteen / Shagufta Moar Road Section

8.5 INTERSECTION BASED TRAFFIC QEUE AND FLOW ANALYSIS

In this section, detail roadway intersection survey or vehicular pattern observation are analyzed. The
consulting team has conducted intersection qeue survey with entry and exit traffic observation with
their flow their flow direction. The surveyed intersections area
a. ECB Chattar Intersection
b. Kalshi Moar Intersection
c. K.I.H.S Kalshi and Pallabi Road Intersection
d. ECB Canteen or Shagufta Moar Intersection.
Detail of these each surveyed intersections are discussed in the following sections.
8.5.1 ECB CHATTAR INTERSECTION
ECB Intersection has 03 intersecting roads as- road towards kalshi moar, road towards Banani
Flyover and road towards Manikdi (see Figure 8-36). Overall qeue volume (entry traffic veh /hr) and
volume on opposite road segment (exit traffic veh /hr) with flow direction are shown in Table 8-7.

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Figure 8-36: Layout View of ECB Chattar Intersection

Table 8-7: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario

Figure 8-37 shows traffic volume comparison between left bound and right bound segments of each
intersecting road sections with ECB Chattar junction. Figure 8-38 percentile distribution of exit and
entry traffic volume for each intersecting road sections.

Figure 8-37: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of ECB Chattar

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Figure 8-38: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting
Road Segments of ECB Chattar

Figure 8-39 shows vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) – left turning, right turning and
straight moving traffic from different intersecting road sections. From this figure we can notice that
right turning vehicles are dominant from Mirpur Flyover section and Kalshi-Matikata road Section.

Figure 8-39: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting
road sections at ECB Chattar Junction
8.5.2 KALSHI MOAR INTERSECTION
Kalshi Moar Intersection has 03 intersecting roads as- road towards K.I.H.S-Pallabi, road towards
ECB Chattar and road towards Shagufta Moar or Mirpur DOHS (see Figure 8-40). Overall qeue
volume (entry traffic veh /hr) and volume on opposite road segment (exit traffic veh /hr) with flow
direction are shown in Table 8-8.

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Figure 8-40: Layout View of Kalshi Moar Intersection

Table 8-7: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario

Full Intersection Traffic Volume Based Scenario Qeue Volume Based Traffic Flow Distribution
Straight Percenta Right Percenta
Total Volume on Left Turning Moving ge Turning ge of
Percentage of Entry Percentage Percentage of
Sl No Road Segment or Intersection Total Qeue Volume Opposite Road Opposite Traffic Traffic ofStraigh Traffic Right
Traffic Volume of Exit Traffic Left Turning
Qeue Name Volume ( Veh / ( Veh / hr) Segment Name Segment Volume (Veh Volume t Moving Volume Turning
Qeue (%) Volume (%) Traffic (%)
hr) (Veh /hr) / hr) (Veh / Traffic (Veh / Traffic
hr) (%) hr) (%)
ECB Chattar to Kalshi kalshi Moar to
1 4829 2128 44.08% 2407 49.86% 1308 61.46% 0 0.00% 820 38.54%
Moar ECB Chattar
DOHS Chattar To Kalshi to DOHS
2 4829 1570 32.52% 980 20.29% 1364 86.88% 132 8.41% 74 4.71%
Kalshi Chattar
Kalshi Moar to
3 Lalmati to Kalshi Moar 4829 1130 23.40% 1442 29.86% 0 0.00% 95 8.41% 1035 91.59%
Lalmati

Figure 8-41 shows traffic volume comparison between left bound and right bound segments of each
intersecting road sections with Kalshi Moar junction. Figure 8-42 percentile distribution of exit and
entry traffic volume for each intersecting road sections.

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Figure 8-41: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of Kalshi Moar

Figure 8-42: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting
Road Segments of Kalshi Moar

Figure 8-43 shows vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) – left turning, right turning and
straight moving traffic from different intersecting road sections. From this figure we can notice that
right turning vehicles are dominant from in all 03 intersecting road segments.

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Figure 8-43: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting
road sections at Kalshi Moar Junction

8.5.3 KALSHI (K.I.H.S) -PALLABI MOAR INTERSECTION

Kalshi Islamia High School (K.I.H.S) Moar Intersection has 03 intersecting roads as- road towards
Pallabi, road towards Kalshi Moar and road towards Pallabi (see Figure 8-44). Overall qeue volume
(entry traffic veh /hr) and volume on opposite road segment (exit traffic veh /hr) with flow direction
are shown in Table 8-9.

Figure 8-44: Layout View of Kalshi Moar Intersection

Table 8-9: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario

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Full Intersection Traffic Volume Based Scenario Qeue Volume Based Traffic Flow Distribution
Right
Percenta Straight
Percentage of Volume on Left Turning Turning
Total Intersection Total Qeue ge of Left Moving Percentage Percentage of
Sl No Road Segment Entry Traffic Opposite Road Opposite Percentage Exit Traffic Traffic Traffic
Volume ( Veh / Volume ( Turning Traffic ofStraight Moving Right Turning
or Qeue Name Volume of Qeue Segment Name Segment (Veh Volume (%) Volume (Veh Volume
hr) Veh / hr) Traffic Volume (Veh Traffic (%) Traffic (%)
(%) /hr) / hr) (Veh /
(%) / hr)
hr)
Kalshi Moar to Islamia High
1 Islamia High 2713 1646 60.66% School to Kalshi 1110 40.90% 0 0.00% 179 10.87% 1467 89.13%
School Moar
Lalmati to Islamia High
2 Islamia high 2713 253 9.34% School to 221 8.14% 51 20.26% 202 79.74% 0 0.00%
School Lalmati
Pallabi to Islamia High
3 Islamia High 2713 1009 37.20% School to 1383 50.96% 901 89.27% 0 0.00% 108 10.73%
School Pallabi

Figure 8-45 shows traffic volume comparison between left bound and right bound segments of each
intersecting road sections with Kalshi (K.I.H.S) Moar junction. Figure 8-46 percentile distribution of
exit and entry traffic volume for each intersecting road sections.

Figure 8-45: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of Kalshi (K.I.H.S) Moar

Figure 8-46: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting
Road Segments of Kalshi (K.I.H.S) Moar
Figure 8-47 shows vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) – left turning, right turning and
straight moving traffic from different intersecting road sections. From this figure we can notice that

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right turning vehicles are dominant from in all intersecting road segments kalshi Moar to Lalmati and
kalshi Moar to Pallabi.

Figure 8-47: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting
road sections at Kalshi (K.I.H.S) Moar Junction

8.5.4 ECB CANTEEN OR SHAGUFTA MOAR INTERSECTION

ECB Canteen or Shagufta Moar Intersection has 04 intersecting roads as- road towards Mirpur
DOHS, road towards Kalshi Moar, Road Towards Shagufta R/A and road towards Mirpur-12 (see
Figure 8-48). Overall qeue volume (entry traffic veh /hr) and volume on opposite road segment (exit
traffic veh /hr) with flow direction are shown in Table 8-10.

Figure 8-48: Layout View of Shagufta Moar / Chattar Intersection

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Table 8-10: Overall Intersection and Qeue Scenario
Full Intersection Traffic Volume Based Scenario Qeue Volume Based Traffic Flow Distribution
Left Straight Right
Total Percentage of Volume on Percentag Percentage Percentag
Total Qeue Percentage Turning Moving Turning
Sl No Road Segment or Intersection Entry Traffic Opposite Road Opposite e of Left ofStraight e of Right
Volume ( Exit Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic
Qeue Name Volume ( Volume of Segment Name Segment Turning Moving Turning
Veh / hr) Volume (%) Volume Volume Volume
Veh / hr) Qeue (%) (Veh /hr) Traffic (%) Traffic (%) Traffic (%)
(Veh / hr) (Veh / hr) (Veh / hr)
Mirpur DOHS to DOHS Chattar to
1 2609 833 31.94% 750 28.75% 13 1.56% 781 93.72% 39 4.72%
DOHS Chattar Mirpur DOHS
Ceramic Road to DOHS Chattar to
2 2609 811 31.10% 312 11.95% 135 16.64% 18 2.18% 659 81.18%
DOHS Chattar Ceramic Road
Shagufta to DOHS DOHS Chattar to
3 2609 64 2.45% 42 1.60% 36 55.73% 17 26.56% 11 17.71%
Chattar Shagufta
Kalshi Moar to DOHS Chattar to
4 2609 900 34.50% 1505 57.71% 262 29.15% 593 65.89% 45 4.96%
DOHS Chattar Kalshi Moar

Figure 8-49 shows traffic volume comparison between left bound and right bound segments of each
intersecting road sections with Shagufta Moar / Chattar Intersection junction. Figure 8-50 percentile
distribution of exit and entry traffic volume for each intersecting road sections.

Figure 8-49: Traffic Qeue Volume in Intersecting Road Segments of Shagufta Moar / Chattar
Intersection

Figure 8-50: Percentile Distribution of Exit and Entry Traffic Volume for each Intersecting
Road Segments of Shagufta Moar / Chattar Intersection

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Figure 8-51 shows vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) – left turning, right turning and
straight moving traffic from different intersecting road sections. From this figure we can notice that
right turning vehicles are dominant from in all 03 intersecting road segments at Shagufta Chattar
except only Shagufta Moar to Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 road section.

Figure 8-51: vehicular flow direction (percentile distribution) from different intersecting
road sections at Shagufta Moar / Chattar Intersection

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CHAPTER-09
TRAFFIC SYSTEM PERFORMENCE ANALYSIS

9.1 GENERAL
The objective of this chapter is to evaluate the effectivity of existing road network of proposed flyover
project area by dividing the whole road network into twelve segments and special performance
analysis for four selected road intersections. The effectivity will be expressed by several indicators,
road index, and its correlation with economic parameter and budget available. The work in this study
covers a literature study, collection of data and related regulation, indicator development, and
evaluation of road network performance.

9.2 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Effectivity is defined as an ability of an object to fulfill a kind of objective, which does not just measure
in benefit and cost only, but it is measured in the ability to fulfill several objectives. The road services
are effective when all stakeholders in road development receive the benefit from it. To measure the
effectiveness of road infrastructure, it is needed a series of indicator, which will give a measurement
about how the elements of the system interact agree with the objectives. The characteristic of
indicators are
1) covers all project phases,
2) gives a needed information to monitor all project phase,
3) gives a clear information to all stakeholders, especially the policy maker,
4) objective and measurable, and
5) not too much in number.
There are several approaches to evaluate road network performance as shown in Table 9-1.

Table 9-1: The Approach of Performance Evaluation of Regional Road Network

9.3 SELECTED INDICATORS / STUDIES FOR THIS STUDY

Traffic Infrastructure and System Performance Model, which mainly represents yardstick for
measuring “Level of Service (LOS)” of existing traffic system and forecasted future traffic scenario
( future traffic scenario will be developed during four step modeling). This system performance model
is actually an amalgam of different types of traffic or vehicular characteristics / parameter analysis.
This bundle of model for defining LOS are

 Vehicular Capacity and Flow Pattern of Existing Network or System

 Speed Analysis
 Mobility and Accessibility Analysis
 Delay and Congestion Analysis

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The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1985) introduced the concept of Level of service (LOS) to
denote level of facility one can derive from a road under different operating characteristics and traffic
volume. The level of service demotes the level of facility one can derive from a road under different
operating characteristics and traffic volume. The concept of level of service is defined as a qualitative
measure describing the operational conditions with a traffic stream, and their perception by motorists
or passengers. The factors that to be considered in evaluating the levels of service are:
 Speed and travel time
 Traffic interruptions and restrictions
 Freedom to maneuver
 Driving comfort and convenience
 Economy

Classification of Level of Service

There are six designated level of service. Each represents a range of extreme of which is defined
by the upper volume limit and the lower speed limit. The six levels of services and their standards
are discussed here by their flow of characteristics, volume, average overall travel speed, freedom
to maneuver, driving comfort and convenience. The TRB (Highway Capacity Manual) utilizes travel
speed and the ratio of the service volume to capacity, depending upon the particular problem. The
latter is often refer to as v/c ratio in Manual. For urban location, the Manual recommends the use of
average overall travel speed. There are six level of service selected by manual. These are termed
by letter A, B, C, D, E and F. Level A represent the highest and level F represent the lowest operating
condition.

Thus LOS ‘A’ means free flow with low volume and high speed, LOS ‘B’ means reasonably free
flow, but speed beginning to be restricted by traffic condition, LOS ‘C’ means stable flow zone but
most drivers restricted in freedom to select their own speed.
LOS ‘D’ means approaching unstable flow, drivers have little freedom to maneuver, LOS ‘E’ means
almost unstable flow, volumes reach near at the capacity of the highway, LOS ‘F’ means unstable
flow may be short stoppages.
Generally it is believed that if the level of service stays between A to C, the traffic operating condition
of the total road is efficient. When level of service drop down to D, the operation condition is marginal
and the condition become inefficient for traffic movement when the level falls down to E and F. LOS
C has generally been established as the standard for design of transportation facilities for peak hour
traffic condition. LOS ‘D’, however is often accepted in urbanized areas where costs or impacts of
providing ‘LOS’ C are prohibitive. But LOS ‘D’ is the area of concern and of growth keeps on
continuing problems will likely to occur in future. LOS ‘E’ and LOS ‘F’ indicates the problem areas.

Table 9-2: Standard Level of Service

Level of Volume Capacity Ratio Speed Flow Condition
Service (Kph)

A <=0.6 >=40 Free flow

B <=0.7 >=30 Stable flow

C <=0.8 >=25 Stable flow

D <=0.9 >=15 Unstable flow

E <=1 <15 Unstable
F >1 0 Forced flow
Source: Kadiyali, 2006

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9.4 SURVEY AND DATA COLLECTION
The consulting team has conducted road segment traffic speed survey by following moving car
observer method including traffic intersection based delay survey on 26 th Feb, 2019. The following
Table 9-2 and 9-3 shows the format of Speed Survey (Moving Car Observer Method) and Delay
survey used by the survey team. Both surveys are conducted during morning peak hours, afternoon
off-peak hours and Evening Peak Hours.

Table 9-2: Format of Moving Car Observer Method Based Speed Survey
Location : Kalshi to DOHS Date: 26 th feb, 2019
Direction Time Vehicle From
Duration Delay Overtaken Overtake by
Opposite
Starting Ending (Sec) (Sec) By Own
Direction

A B 9:34 AM 9:39 AM 300.1 8.0 0.0 15.0 400

B A 9:40 AM 9:44 AM 240.0 23.0 0.0 8.0 300

A B 9:45 AM 9:49 AM 240.0 56.0 2.0 17.0 340
B A 9:50 AM 9:54 AM 240.0 34.0 1.0 10.0 310
A B 9:54 AM 9:58 AM 240.0 5 0 13 208
B A 9:59 AM 10:03 AM 240.0 20 1 16 260
A B 10:03 AM 10:07 AM 240.0 5 1 7 234
B A 10:07 AM 10:11 AM 240.0 56 2 18 240
A B 10:11 AM 10:15 AM 240.0 2 3 14 260
B A 10:21 AM 10:25 AM 240.0 35 2 18 196
A B 10:25 AM 10:29 AM 240.0 60 0 20 300
B A 10:30 AM 10:34 AM 240.0 55 2 10 192

Table 9-3: Format of Intersection Based Congestion and Delay Survey

Kalshi to DOHS Chattar Date:20.2.2019

Time Traffic Qeue

Count (Stopped at
Starting Ending Signal)

8:50:AM 8:54:AM 112

8:56:AM 9:00:AM
162

9:03:AM 9:05:AM 186

9:08:AM 9:10:AM 92

9:12:AM 9:14:AM
138

9:18:AM 9:19:AM
281
9:50:AM 9:55:AM
230

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9.5 SYSTEM INDICATOR ANALYSIS
9.5.1 ROAD SEGMENT WISE LOS BASED ON TRAFFIC VOLUME
Detail traffic volume, recorded during screen line or road segment wise traffic volume survey for
selected 12 road segments are discussed in detail in Chapter 08. The following Table 9-4 shows the
LOS service for different road segments based on volume –capacity ratio for peak and off-peak
hours.
Table 9-4: Road Segment wise Level of Service Based on V/C Ratio
Hourly Traffic Volume (PCU / hr) Volume Capacity Ratio Level of Service (LOS)
Total
Effective Capacity Afterno Morni Afterno
Segment Name Lane Morning Evenin Averag Mornin Afternoon Evening Avera Evenin Averag
Lane No (PCU/hr) on Off- ng on Off-
No Peak g Peak e g Peak Off-peak Peak ge g Peak e
peak Peak peak
Banani Flyover to ECB
3 3 4200 3753.14 3353.98 2920.89 3342.67 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.80 E D C D
Chattar
ECB Chattar to Banani
3 3 4200 2443.87 2280.45 3415.50 2713.27 0.58 0.54 0.81 0.65 A A E B
Flyover
ECB Chattar to Kalshi
3 2 2800 3217.59 2674.10 2758.05 2883.24 1.15 0.96 0.99 1.03 F F E F
Moar
Kalshi Moar to ECB
3 2 2800 2298.85 1799.29 3396.64 2498.26 0.82 0.64 1.21 0.89 E B F E
Chattar
Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to
2 2 2800 2429.03 1788.02 2223.64 2146.90 0.87 0.64 0.79 0.77 D B C C
Pallabi
Pallabi to Kalshi
2 2 2800 1328.83 1077.67 1897.04 1434.51 0.47 0.38 0.68 0.51 A A B A
K.I.H.S Moar
Kalshi Moar to ECB
Canteen / Shagufta 3 2 2800 2037.92 2011.24 3018.41 2355.85 0.73 0.72 1.08 0.84 C C F D
Moar
ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to 3 2 2800 3747.97 3090.86 2968.04 3268.95 1.34 1.10 1.06 1.17 F F F F
Kalshi Moar
ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to 2 2 2800 296.36 281.75 941.16 506.42 0.11 0.10 0.34 0.18 A A A A
Mirpur 12
Mirpur 12 to ECB
Canteen / Shagufta 2 2 2800 1362.64 997.40 1271.67 1210.57 0.49 0.36 0.45 0.43 A A A A
Moar
ECB Canteen /
Shagufta Moar to 2 2 2800 1045.47 977.39 1370.57 1131.14 0.37 0.35 0.49 0.40 A A A A
Mirpur DOHS Gate-01
Mirpur DOHS Gate-01
to ECB Canteen / 2 2 2800 1949.25 1806.08 1639.21 1798.18 0.70 0.65 0.59 0.64 B B A B
Shagufta Moar

From the above table, it is clearly noticeable that, two road sections (both left bound and right bound)
ECB Chattar to Kalshi and Kalshi Moar to Shagufta Moar have worst level of service with compare
to others. These road segments LOS periodically varies from E= unstable to F= Forced Flow (worst
condition). So traffic network improvement and capacity development within these road segments
are very essential.

9.5.2 ROAD SEGMENT WISE AVERAGE VEHICULAR SPEED

The consultant has calculated segment wise average speed using the following formula:

Where,
qn = Flow in the north bound direction
xs = Opposing traffic count of vehicles met when the test vehicle traveling south

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yn = Number of vehicle overtaking the test vehicle minus the number of vehicles overtaken by
the test vehicle, when the test vehicle is traveling north.
ts = Average journey time in south direction
tn = Average journey time in north direction

Determination of Average Journey Time

The formula of average journey time is.

Where,
tn = Mean journey time in the north bound direction
tn = Average journey time in north direction
yn = Number of vehicle overtaking the test vehicle minus the number of vehicles overtaken by
the test vehicle, when the test vehicle is traveling north.
qn = Flow in the north bound direction

The consulting team has conducted traffic speed survey and delay survey for most critical two road
segments in the project area. These are Kalshi to ECB Chattar (both left and Right bound traffic)
and Shagufta/ DOHS Chattar to Kalshi.

The following Table 9-5 and 9-6 shows calculated mean journey time with speed and average
vehicular speed for ECB Chattar to Kalshi and DOHS Chattar to Kalshi Intersection.

Table 9-5: Link Average Journey Speed and Vehicular Speed (periodical) with LOS for ECB
Chattar to Kalshi Section

Mean or Average
Average Total Mean
Average free flow Link or Link or
Travel Section Journey
Time Period Direction Delay Journey Segment Segment
Time Length Time
(Sec) Speed Speed LOS
(Sec) (m) (sec)
(km/h) (km/h)

ECB Kalshi to
Chattar to ECB 540.09 0 1813.5 540.09 12.09 9.07 E
Morning Kalshi Chattar
Peak Hour Kalshi to ECB
ECB Chattar to 780.13 5 1813.5 775.13 8.42 6.32 E
Chattar Kalshi

ECB Kalshi to
Chattar to ECB 240.04 0 1813.5 240.04 27.20 20.40 D
Afternoon
Kalshi Chattar
Off- Peak
Kalshi to ECB
Hour
ECB Chattar to 240.04 42 1813.5 198.04 32.97 24.72 D
Chattar Kalshi

ECB Kalshi to
Chattar to ECB 360.06 0 1813.5 360.06 18.13 13.60 E
Evening Kalshi Chattar
Peak Hour Kalshi to ECB
ECB Chattar to 660.11 5 1813.5 655.11 9.97 7.47 E
Chattar Kalshi

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Table 9-6: Link Average Journey Speed and Vehicular Speed (periodical) with LOS for
DOHS Chattar to Kalshi Section
Mean or Average
Average Total Mean
Average free flow Link or Link or
Travel Section Journey
Time Period Direction Delay Journey Segment Segment
Time Length Time
(Sec) Speed Speed LOS
(Sec) (m) (sec)
(km/h) (km/h)
DOHS Kalshi
Chattar to Moar to
300.05 8 1416.25 292.05 17.46 13.09 E
Kalshi DOHS
Morning
Moar Chattar
Peak Hour
Kalshi DOHS
Moar to Chattar to 240.04 23 1416.25 217.04 23.49 17.62 D
DOHS Kalshi

DOHS Kalshi
Chattar to Moar to
240.04 15 1416.25 225.04 22.66 16.99 D
Kalshi DOHS
Afternoon
Moar Chattar
Off- Peak
Kalshi DOHS
Hour
Moar to Chattar to
240.04 10 1416.25 230.04 22.16 16.62 D
DOHS Kalshi
Chattar Moar

DOHS Kalshi
Chattar to Moar to
420.07 90 1416.25 330.07 15.45 12.36 E
Kalshi DOHS
Evening Moar Chattar
Peak Hour Kalshi DOHS
Moar to Chattar to
420.07 10 1416.25 410.07 12.43 9.95 E
DOHS Kalshi
Chattar Moar

From Table 9-5 and 9-6, we can easily identify that LOS in terms of vehicular link or segment speed
both road segments shows poor performance. Their performance level indicator (LOS) for both
morning and evening peak period ( in both direction) is “E” which is very ineffective and unstable
flow. So, these two road segments from ECB Chattar to DOHS Chattar via Kalshi Moar requires
rapid and effective traffic network development initiatives.

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CHAPTER-10
TRAVEL DEMAND FORECAST

10.1 GENERAL
Transport modeling is a tool that planners use to help consultant up some of the factors that might
influence the choice of a preferred transport strategy. Predicting the travel requirements of a future
generation is a challenging task, particularly at a time when so many influencing factors are
undergoing dramatic change (i.e. the rising cost of fuel price, global warming, and rapid state
population growth). The manner in which consultant plan our future transport networks is also
changing and a high priority is being placed on sustainable transport solutions that address walking
and cycling, public transport, freight, as consultant as the need for new roads. It’s more about
achieving a desired future urban environment rather than simply just responding to traffic congestion
on the roads.
A transport model tests how different scenarios might satisfy people’s future travel requirements and
helps in reaching a decision about which strategy to adopt. One of the basic assumptions used in
transport modeling is that it reproduces current transport conditions and can therefore project future
transport conditions. The model is particularly useful in comparing alternative future network options
to see differences in performance. A travel demand model predicts the number of trips trip origins
and destinations, such as a place of residence and work. Trips are estimated by time of day for an
average, and then are distributed around the geographical area being analyzed (trip distribution),
assigned to a travel mode (mode choice), and then to a route taken (trip assignment).

Figure 10-1: Traffic Demand Forecasting Procedure

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This chapter is to analyze traffic demands model based on the traffic survey data conducted in this
Study and to forecast future traffic demand under do-nothing situation. In the traffic demand forecast,
the traffic is divided into three areas such as person trips within the study area, truck trips, and trips
in outer area as presented in Figure 10-1. As for person trip demand forecast, the following four-
step traffic forecast method is used:
 Step 1 Trip generation and attraction including trip production
 Step 2 Trip distribution
 Step 3 Modal split
 Step 4 Traffic assignment

10.2 MODEL DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT

10.2.1 MODEL DEVLOPMENT
A model structure that adequately incorporates all the relevant responses to road pricing is a
necessary condition, and in our opinion the most important factor that contributes to the sufficiency
of a travel demand model.

Another important contributing factor to model sufficiency is related to model calibration and
validation; that is, how the model reproduces current travel conditions at a regional, corridor and
facility level. Regional travel demand models are evaluated in terms of how closely they reproduce
regional travel patterns, such as traffic volumes on major facilities, transit ridership, and origin-
destination person movements. However, this level of model validation may be insufficient for the
specific facility, corridor, or subarea under study. Therefore a critical step before initiating a road
pricing or traffic and revenue study is ensuring that the model is -validated at a geographic scale
commensurate with the scale of the project.

A traffic forecast is necessarily made under conditions of uncertainty. Therefore the quantification of
uncertainty and its impact on toll road traffic and revenue should be an integral part of the forecasting
process, and provides important information to investors and decision-makers about the likelihood
of achieving the anticipated revenue and other goals related to the realized traffic volume.

Based on the present OD tables estimated in Chapter 07, for person trips per trip purpose and mode,
as the future socioeconomic framework, future OD matrices are forecasted through the use of trip
generation and attraction models for inter-zonal trips. Generated and attracted trips are next
distributed on zonal basis and intra-zonal trips are estimated for each zone for traffic assignment
purposes and to identify the magnitude of potential traffic problems in the future in order to establish
required transport improvement components of proposed flyover project up to the target year 2040.

Socioeconomic data utilized to establish the future framework include available information from
different resources and collected data through home interview and other field surveys. The
framework is based mainly on zonal socioeconomic data of estimated population, registered number
of students in schools and universities, and the number of employees that is estimated based on
the number of establishments and average employees per establishment.

10.2.2 MODEL DESIGN

There are many models to apply for the modal choice of person trip such as trip production model,
trip end model, trip interchange model, etc. In this Study, the modal split in trip end model and trip
interchange model will be employed.

As for the motorized trip demand forecast, a simple forecast method using the growth rate is
adopted. In this case, the GDP growth rate and population cluster are used as the growth rate. As

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for trips to/from the external area of the Study Area, a growth rate method using the growth rate of
trip generation/attraction and vehicle trips is adopted. The traffic demand under do-nothing situation
means that the traffic demand is forecasted if there will not be transport investments by the year
2040. From this forecasted traffic volume under do-nothing situation, it can be identified future
transport problems and issues. This forecasted traffic volume is also used for the economic
evaluation as without the proposed flyover case. The following Table 10-1 shows the list of input
data for designing and developing the travel demand forecast model.
Table 10-1: Generic Inputs for Designing 4-step Model
Choice Dimension Time Scale for Expected Impact
Modeling
First Order Responses
Route Choice Short Term Trip Likelihood of choosing the road is
Episode expected to vary by type of traveler

Pre Route Choice ( vs. Non ) Short Term Trip Likelihood of choosing the road is
Episode expected to vary by type of traveler
Car Occupancy Short-term tour/trip Increased likelihood of forming carpools,
episode or increased likelihood of existing
carpools to choose the road
Mode choice Short-term - tour/trip Shift to transit, especially to rail and
episode among low/medium income groups

Time-of-day / schedule Short-term - tour/trip Increased likelihood of traveling during

choice episode non-peak hours (peak spreading).

Second Order Responses

Destination / stop location Short-term - tour/trip Improved accessibility effect combined
episode with negative pricing effect on trip
distribution for network trips
Tour frequency, sequence, Short-term - within day consultant tour frequency and higher
and formation of trip chains chaining propensity

Daily pattern type Short-term - More compressed workdays and work

consultant (day to day) from home
Usual locations and schedule Medium-term - 1 Compressed / chain patterns; consultant
for no mandatory activities month planned shopping in major outlets

Household / person mobility Medium-term - 1 to 6 Higher percentage of transponder users

attributes (transponder, months and parking arrangements for high
transit path, parking incomes, higher percentage of transit
arrangements at work) path holders for low incomes
Household car ownership Long-term - 1 year Stratified response by income group
choice (higher car ownership for high incomes,
consultant car ownership for low
incomes)
School / university location Long-term - 1 to 5 Choice by transit accessibility; flexible
and schedule years schedules
Job /usual workplace location Long-term - 1 to 5 Local jobs for low incomes; compressed
and schedule years / flexible schedules
Residential location Long-term - 5 yrs + Income stratification (high income
suburbs around roads, low income
clusters around transit)
Land use development Long-term - 5 yrs + Urban sprawl if no transit; otherwise shift
to transit

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10.3 TRAFFIC / TRIP ATTRACTION ZONE (TAZ) DEVELOPMENT
The consulting team members has divided “traffic Attraction Zones (TAZ)” in to two different classes
to simulate the future trip generation and distribution characteristics, within the study area boundary
and outside remaining parts of Dhaka Metropolitan Area (DMA) as external assigned or attracted
traffic.
 Intra-zonal TAZ: The area demarcated as study area with defined and bordered
administrative units, briefly discussed in Chapter-05, are considered as intra-zonal TAZ for
the proposed flyover route alignment.
 Inter-zonal TAZ: Based on the O-D scenario of vehicular movement or trip characteristics,
observed by the study team, total 18 external zones of DMA area are defined as external
or inter-zonal TAZ for this model. The details of these 18 external zone (EZ) or TAZs are
given in Table 10-2.
Table 10-2: Details of External TAZs
External Administrative AREA (sq. External Administrative AREA (sq.
TAZ ID Thana Area km) TAZ ID Thana Area km)
EZ-01 Khilgaon 7.26 EZ-10 Ramna 7.43
EZ-02 Hazaribagh 4.79 EZ-11 Badda 53.90
EZ-03 Tejgaon 8.73 EZ-12 Mohammadpur 11.72
EZ-04 Biman Bandar 8.03 EZ-13 Lalbagh 4.06
EZ-05 Sutrapur 3.89 EZ-14 Dhanmondi 5.30
EZ-06 Kotwali 2.21 EZ-15 Mirpur 14.89
EZ-07 Motijheel 4.62 EZ-16 Uttara 60.70
EZ-08 Gulshan 9.21 EZ-17 Cantonment 9.31
EZ-09 Kamrangir Char 3.58 EZ-18 Kafrul 10.78

Figure 10-2: External and Internal TAZ Boundary Delineation

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10.4 BASE YEAR CONDITION
10.4.1 BASE YEAR DEMAND
A novel matrix estimation technique is employed to calculate the base year demand. This demand
is processed for the model as ‘Origin- Destination Trip Matrix’ for the base year 2019. To develop
this matrix consultant have processed the historic O-D matrix developed for Strategic Transport Plan
(STP) of year 2004. Other data sources used to validate the historic matrix of STP consultant:

a. Survey data collected for the Dhaka Urban Transport Network Development Study (DHUTS)
by Dhaka Transport Coordination Board (DTCB) and Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA)
b. OD survey data for Dhaka Elevated Expressway Project (DEEP) conducted at 2010
c. Pilot OD survey done by our surveyors at February 2019.

The OD information for the matrix was expanded to represent three distinct time segments of the
day to be modeled (Figure 10-3):
i. Peak Traffic Conditions (7 am to 1 pm and 4pm to 10 pm)
ii. Off Peak Traffic Condition (1 pm to 4 pm and 10 pm to 1 am)
iii. Super Off Peak Traffic Condition (1 am to 7 am)

Figure 10-3: Time Segmentation Followed by consultant In Model Development

It is be noted that a different time segmentation is provided for the super off peak time period that
shows a period when the evening commuting vehicles are rarely present. Only nighttime freight
service vehicles, long distance inter-city buses are the major vehicles for this time period.

Origin-destination (OD) demand matrices per time slice are very important for many traffic planning,
control and management policies. The off-line estimation of the OD demand matrices for freeway
networks has been widely addressed by Cascetta et al. (1993), who analyzed several methods for
combining traffic counts with historical information. In particular, simultaneous estimation gives in
one step the matrices for all the time slices by using traffic counts referring to the whole day, whilst
sequential estimation iteratively produces the OD demand matrix for an interval by using traffic

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counts for the same interval and the previous ones and, possibly, the OD matrices estimated for the
previous intervals. A number of models have been developed for estimating an O-D matrix from link
traffic counts. Typically, the entropy maximizing, information minimizing and least square estimators
have been proposed and applied. These models seek to update or improve an old O-D matrix. But
a major problem with these methods is that they do not show us the optimal traffic counting locations.
So consultant have used the theory of Maximum Possible Relative Error (MPRE) to find out the
locations of our link traffic counting sites.

10.4.2 FUTURE YEAR DEMAND

Future year demand from STP matrices was compared to the socio-economic drivers described in
above sections. The average annual growth rate in total motorized trips from 2004 to 2024 was
calculated to be 3.1% (As per AECOM, 2010 calculations). But current growth rate with increased
GDP is 5.2% per year. This value is significantly lesser than the other factors, such as population
growth or economic growth, as shown in Figure 10-4. Vehicle ownership is also significantly higher
than the growth in STP trips, with car ownership growing historically by 5% and motorcycle growing
by 8%.

As the population of the metropolitan region and their economic activity increases, their requirement
or demand for trip making will also increase. But the lack of capacity of the existing roadway
infrastructure will not allow such growth in trip making. For this reason the trip growth rate estimation
has been considered to be relatively low or conservative in STP. Thus we have used STP future
year matrices with adjustments made to the base year matrices for calibration purpose.

Figure 10-4: Trip Table Growth Rates Compared to Economic Indicators

10.4.3 VEHICLE CLASS PROPORTIONS

The future year matrices were divided into different vehicle classes. Vehicle class proportions in
future years will be determined their projected growth rate. As Bangladesh is projected to be
enjoying a sustained economic growth in the near future, private vehicles e.g. car and motorcycles
are going to be increased in a high growth rate. This growth rate is calculated from the past year
vehicle growth trends e.g. National level data from Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and data for Dhaka
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city only from Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA). Other vehicle proportions are
calculated according to total traffic at the forecasted year.

Table 10-3: Future Year Trip Table Class Proportions

Year Heavy Medium & Bus Minibus Car Motor Three
Truck Small Cycle Wheelers
Truck
2019 8% 18% 10% 13% 31% 8% 12%
2025 6% 15% 9% 8% 38% 10% 14%
2030 5% 14% 8% 7% 43% 11% 12%
2040 4% 12% 7% 5% 48% 12% 12%

The above proportions show us relative percentage of every traffic mode with respect to total traffic.
Here decrease in proportion of any particular traffic mode does not indicate decrease in their
numbers. There would still be growth in vehicle numbers but the proportion is getting lowered by
greater growth in private vehicle number. After the year 2025 the growth of vehicles will be
constrained by the capacity of the roadways. So, after that relative proportion of the vehicle modes
will not be a critical factor in making the forecast.

An ideal four step demand model requires survey of households and businesses to understand the
origin and destination of the trips in the region.

10.4.4 VEHICLE GROWTH MODEL

Future vehicle growth is an important parameter during the feasibility of any transportation project.
There are different types models among which simple trend based growth models and S-curve
ownership models use aggregate time series data to forecast vehicle growth. Recent trend,
however, is to use disaggregate cross-sectional data to understand the vehicle ownership at the
household level and then use forecast changes in household characteristics to model vehicle
ownership. In the absence of disaggregate information, in this pre-feasibility stage, focus has been
on aggregate vehicle ownership/vehicle growth models.

Among the aggregate models, trend models are too simplistic, using time as the only explanatory
factor. S-curve models incorporate the fact that growth in vehicle ownership is initially low, which
then rises rapidly and then stabilizes at a large ownership level. While this has an intuitive appeal, it
has been found that vehicle ownership in Bangladesh is very low and the rapid growth phase is yet
to arrive in the next decades. Instead, the vehicle growth model links vehicle numbers to GDP, which
allows for a rapid (or slow) growth in future, if GDP grows rapidly (slowly). The dependence on GDP
captures the vital link that vehicles ownership indeed depends on income, and thus GDP of a
country.
Vehicle growth rate model with future forecasting is discussed in detail section 4.6 of Chapter 04.

10.5 TRIP GENERATION

Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step transportation planning process, widely
used for forecasting travel demands. It predicts the number of trips originating in or destined for a
particular traffic analysis zone. Trip generation uses trip rates that are averages for large segment
of the study area. Trip productions are based on household characteristics such as the number of
people in the household and the number of vehicles available. For example, a household with four
people and two vehicles may be assumed to produce 3.00 work trips per day. Trips per household
are then expanded to trips per zone. Trip attractions are typically based on the level of employment
in a zone. For example a zone could be assumed to attract 1.32 home based work trips for every
person employed in that zone. Trip generation is used to calculate person trips.

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For modeling trip generation and trip attraction the consultant has introduced two sets of zones as
trip generation model for study area only and external area generation or attraction model from other
parts of DMA area.

10.5.1 TRIP GENERATION MODEL WITHIN STUDY AREA

The consultant has used the following formulas to forecasted values for the other trip production and
attraction. From the calculated parameters for trip production and trip attraction after 10 years, two
regression equations are found. Here X-inputs for production are considered as population and
income after each year from 2019 to onwards 2040 and Y- input is considered as existing trips. This
is also done for attraction parameters. Finally the following two regression equations are found:

The following 10-4 and Table 10-5 represent forecasted trip generation and attraction values for
those internal TAZ zones within Study Area.

Table 10-4: Forecasted Trip Production for Internal TAZs within Study Area
Trip Generation (trips /day)
Harirampur & Total Trip
W-02 W-03 W-04 W-05 W-06 W-07 W-08 W-15
Year Baunia Production

2019 373,963 241,586 196,649 295,843 401,507 285,754 279,970 424,814 175,608 2,495,525

2020 386,022 248,854 202,291 305,075 414,563 294,620 288,627 438,715 180,488 2,584,385

2021 398,527 256,392 208,143 314,647 428,101 303,815 297,605 453,127 185,551 2,676,470

2022 411,490 264,210 214,215 324,576 442,135 313,351 306,916 468,067 190,805 2,771,896

2023 424,931 272,320 220,515 334,871 456,686 323,239 316,570 483,555 196,258 2,870,784

2024 438,867 280,732 227,051 345,546 471,770 333,494 326,585 499,613 201,915 2,973,259

2025 452,181 288,748 233,269 355,734 486,187 343,278 336,137 514,963 207,292 3,071,475

2026 465,949 297,040 239,703 366,270 501,093 353,398 346,017 530,833 212,855 3,172,989

2027 480,183 305,617 246,359 377,166 516,505 363,862 356,234 547,243 218,611 3,277,910

2028 494,902 314,488 253,243 388,434 532,440 374,683 366,801 564,208 224,568 3,386,352

2029 510,120 323,662 260,366 400,086 548,916 385,875 377,727 581,747 230,729 3,498,434

2030 523,974 331,979 266,803 410,672 563,923 396,038 387,650 597,730 236,286 3,601,041

2031 538,245 340,545 273,435 421,575 579,380 406,509 397,871 614,189 242,011 3,706,700

2032 552,941 349,372 280,268 432,808 595,298 417,294 408,399 631,142 247,911 3,815,500

2033 568,081 358,464 287,308 444,378 611,695 428,402 419,243 648,603 253,990 3,927,536

2034 583,672 367,830 294,561 456,296 628,583 439,847 430,416 666,587 260,253 4,042,905

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2035 596,753 375,622 300,558 466,255 642,762 449,403 439,741 681,698 265,409 4,140,735

2036 610,151 383,605 306,700 476,459 657,289 459,194 449,294 697,178 270,691 4,240,963

2037 623,879 391,782 312,993 486,910 672,171 469,222 459,080 713,039 276,102 4,343,646

2038 637,943 400,159 319,440 497,619 687,419 479,497 469,105 729,287 281,644 4,448,844

2039 652,350 408,741 326,045 508,588 703,038 490,022 479,377 745,932 287,323 4,556,617

2040 665,494 416,525 332,009 518,568 717,295 499,594 488,714 761,134 292,436 4,655,655

Table 10-5: Forecasted Trip Attraction for Internal TAZs within Study Area
Trip Attraction (trips /day)
Harirampur Total Trip
W-02 W-03 W-04 W-05 W-06 W-07 W-08 W-15
Year & Baunia Attraction

2019 1,465,508 1,340,675 1,298,299 1,391,840 1,491,482 1,382,325 1,376,872 1,513,461 1,278,456 3,466,172

2020 1,510,960 1,381,608 1,337,699 1,434,626 1,537,875 1,424,767 1,419,115 1,560,650 1,317,138 3,584,049

2021 1,557,684 1,423,650 1,378,150 1,478,585 1,585,573 1,468,370 1,462,513 1,609,173 1,356,845 3,705,818

2022 1,605,715 1,466,828 1,419,681 1,523,753 1,634,613 1,513,168 1,507,099 1,659,067 1,397,605 3,831,611

2023 1,655,090 1,511,176 1,462,323 1,570,162 1,685,035 1,559,193 1,552,904 1,710,374 1,439,448 3,961,563

2024 1,705,850 1,556,726 1,506,105 1,617,847 1,736,878 1,606,482 1,599,966 1,763,135 1,482,401 4,095,820

2025 1,756,964 1,602,844 1,550,527 1,666,013 1,789,032 1,654,267 1,647,533 1,816,168 1,526,030 4,226,994

2026 1,809,470 1,650,186 1,596,117 1,715,471 1,842,611 1,703,332 1,696,372 1,870,657 1,570,798 4,362,246

2027 1,863,403 1,698,784 1,642,904 1,766,257 1,897,655 1,753,711 1,746,517 1,926,642 1,616,737 4,501,698

2028 1,918,807 1,748,673 1,690,919 1,818,406 1,954,206 1,805,438 1,798,006 1,984,163 1,663,878 4,645,486

2029 1,975,719 1,799,886 1,740,197 1,871,955 2,012,304 1,858,554 1,850,871 2,043,264 1,712,249 4,793,741

2030 2,032,409 1,851,354 1,789,893 1,925,563 2,070,082 1,911,764 1,903,853 2,101,962 1,761,115 4,934,128

2031 2,090,583 1,904,149 1,840,863 1,980,562 2,129,373 1,966,354 1,958,208 2,162,199 1,811,229 5,078,482

2032 2,150,275 1,958,307 1,893,140 2,036,988 2,190,218 2,022,358 2,013,970 2,224,020 1,862,627 5,226,916

2033 2,211,532 2,013,861 1,946,759 2,094,878 2,252,661 2,079,813 2,071,176 2,287,465 1,915,340 5,379,547

2034 2,274,389 2,070,847 2,001,753 2,154,272 2,316,741 2,138,760 2,129,867 2,352,579 1,969,400 5,536,496

2035 2,336,083 2,127,553 2,056,767 2,213,021 2,379,470 2,197,129 2,188,018 2,416,187 2,023,621 5,678,109

2036 2,399,310 2,185,674 2,113,151 2,273,236 2,443,761 2,256,954 2,247,619 2,481,378 2,079,194 5,823,218

2037 2,464,112 2,245,241 2,170,943 2,334,948 2,509,653 2,318,268 2,308,705 2,548,191 2,136,153 5,971,905

2038 2,530,528 2,306,294 2,230,175 2,398,201 2,577,185 2,381,111 2,371,312 2,616,667 2,194,533 6,124,263

2039 2,598,597 2,368,869 2,290,886 2,463,027 2,646,396 2,445,519 2,435,481 2,686,845 2,254,370 6,280,379

2040 2,666,836 2,432,054 2,352,354 2,528,282 2,715,685 2,510,390 2,500,129 2,757,026 2,315,036 6,429,617

10.5.2 TRIP GENERATION MODEL EXTERNAL TAZs

The consultant has used the following formulas to forecasted values trip generation for external
TAZs. Forecasted trip generation from 2019 to 2040 are shown in Table 10-6.

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External

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TAZ ID 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
EZ-01 1300376 1346113 1393514 1442641 1493554 1546320 1596883 1649147 1703171 1759012 1816733 1869554 1923950 1979968 2037656 2097065 2147405 2198983 2251827 2305970 2361442 2412396
EZ-02 47305 47681 48079 48501 48947 49418 49834 50273 50734 51219 51729 52129 52547 52984 53441 53918 54202 54496 54801 55116 55443 55664

Ltd.
EZ-03 336129 346960 358192 369840 381918 394443 406418 418802 431608 444853 458549 471032 483892 497140 510788 524849 536670 548785 561199 573921 586959 598874
EZ-04 373719 385911 398553 411662 425254 439348 452827 466765 481179 496084 511496 525552 540031 554946 570311 586140 599463 613116 627106 641443 656135 669572
EZ-05 624829 646111 668172 691041 714747 739320 762848 787172 812320 838318 865195 889755 915051 941105 967939 995577 1018931 1042861 1067381 1092504 1118247 1141850
EZ-06 464236 479705 495743 512370 529607 547479 564580 582262 600545 619449 638994 656836 675214 694145 713644 733729 750668 768026 785812 804037 822712 839814
EZ-07 965810 999436 1034287 1070410 1107849 1146652 1183826 1222253 1261975 1303037 1345483 1384307 1424291 1465469 1507877 1551551 1588527 1626412 1665228 1704999 1745748 1783156
EZ-08 244976 252507 260320 268425 276832 285552 293879 302493 311403 320621 330156 338825 347758 356963 366448 376222 384402 392786 401379 410185 419211 427436
EZ-09 802707 830428 859162 888945 919814 951811 982458 1014139 1046889 1080746 1115745 1147746 1180704 1214648 1249606 1285609 1316070 1347279 1379257 1412021 1445592 1476397
EZ-10 169900 174714 179711 184897 190281 195868 201191 206699 212401 218302 224409 229937 235637 241512 247568 253811 258992 264303 269748 275330 281051 286236
Traffic Impact Assessment and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

EZ-11 903277 934639 967145 1000837 1035758 1071952 1106623 1142463 1179513 1217812 1257403 1293611 1330902 1369306 1408858 1449591 1484069 1519394 1555589 1592673 1630670 1665547
EZ-12 1214023 1256634 1300796 1346566 1394002 1443164 1490271 1538964 1589296 1641323 1695101 1744309 1794985 1847173 1900918 1956265 2003156 2051199 2100423 2150856 2202529 2249986
EZ-13 869711 899858 931105 963492 997061 1031854 1065181 1099634 1135249 1172065 1210123 1244927 1280772 1317687 1355706 1394860 1427997 1461949 1496736 1532379 1568899 1602416
EZ-14 522286 539856 558071 576954 596530 616824 636248 656331 677095 698563 720759 741029 761908 783413 805564 828379 847637 867370 887590 908309 929539 948991
EZ-15 500766 517557 534965 553012 571721 591117 609680 628873 648717 669235 690448 709818 729770 750321 771489 793292 811690 830543 849860 869655 889937 908518
EZ-16 525154 542828 561150 580145 599836 620250 639789 659991 680877 702472 724799 745189 766192 787824 810106 833056 852429 872279 892619 913461 934817 954385
EZ-17 724735 749633 775442 802194 829924 858667 886193 914649 944067 974478 1005917 1034657 1064256 1094741 1126138 1158475 1185820 1213839 1242547 1271962 1302102 1329750
EZ-18 638622 660404 682982 706387 730649 755798 779878 804772 830509 857117 884624 909761 935651 962317 989781 1018067 1041973 1066467 1091565 1117281 1143631 1167792
Table 10-6: Trip Generation at External TAZs

FINAL
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10.6 TRIP DISTRIBUTION AND EXTERNAL TRAFFIC ADJUSTMENT
Trip distribution is the second component in the traditional 4-step transportation planning (or
forecasting] model. This step matches trip makers ’ origins and destinations to develop a “trip table”
a matrix that displays the number of trips going from each origin to each destination.

The proposed study area (Greater Mirpur- Pallabi and Matikata Area) both generates and attracts
traffic within it’s boundary and from other parts of the city also. So before, formulating trip distribution
model for the study area, share of entire city trip’s are directly or indirectly linked with it, need to be
either measured or estimated.

The consultant team has used a BUET master Thesis paper by Naila Sharmeen , Assistant Lecturer,
Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning, to assume the relational pattern of traffic trip’s distribution /
attraction share of proposed study area with other parts of DMA area (see Table 10-7).

Table 10-7: O-D Matrix Developed For All Vehicle Trips Of DMA Area, Linked with Greater
Mirpur-Pallabi Area.

10.7 TRAFFIC FORECASTS / ASSIGNMENTS

Traffic forecast for the model is presented daily transactions as the following tables. Results have
been provided for both the alignment alternatives. The alternative 1 option has been explored with
variation in at-grade road capacity, GDP growth rate and toll amounts.

The consultant has considered following types of vehicles for future traffic assignment of
Forecasting ; HT = Heavy Truck,
T = Truck
B= Bus
MS= Minibus
C= Car
MC = other motorized car / jeep / pickup van / laguna etc. and
TW= Three whiller such as auto rickshaw, CNG, Tempo, Rickshaw etc.

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Table 10-8: Forecasts for Alternative 1- (Scenario 1) - with 6% GDP growth rate
Year HT T B MB C MC TW Total

2020 722 1691 1022 910 6805 121 271 11543

2021 961 2250 1035 921 7434 183 472 13257

2022 2010 4710 1946 1732 14463 397 1064 26322

2023 2989 7004 2732 2432 20702 602 1637 38099

2024 3745 8775 3302 2940 25335 762 2093 46951

2025 4501 10546 3872 3447 29967 922 2548 55803

2026 5734 13436 4320 3845 36451 1016 2744 67546

2027 6968 16326 4767 4244 42936 1110 2939 79289

2028 8201 19216 5215 4642 49420 1203 3135 91033

2029 9435 22106 5662 5041 55905 1297 3330 102776

2030 10668 24996 6110 5439 62389 1391 3526 114519

2031 11346 26586 6356 5658 65955 1443 3634 120978

2032 11346 26586 6356 5658 65955 1443 3634 120978

2033 11346 26586 6356 5658 65955 1443 3634 120978

2034 11346 26586 6356 5658 65955 1443 3634 120978

2035 11346 26586 6356 5658 65955 1443 3634 120978

DAILY TRANSACTIONS

Table 10-9: Forecasts for Alternative 1-(Scenario 2) with 4.8% GDP gr. rate
Year HT T B MB C MC TW Total

2020 692 1622 991 882 6428 111 250 10976

2021 903 2117 992 883 7032 166 415 12509

2022 1879 4402 1855 1652 13689 361 924 24762

2023 2785 6526 2597 2312 19601 545 1416 35781

2024 3483 8161 3132 2788 23991 690 1804 44050

2025 4181 9796 3667 3265 28382 835 2193 52318

2026 5245 12289 4056 3610 33375 888 2317 61779

2027 6309 14782 4444 3956 38367 940 2441 71240

2028 7372 17275 4833 4302 43360 993 2566 80701

2029 8436 19767 5222 4648 48353 1046 2690 90162

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2030 9500 22260 5610 4994 53345 1099 2815 99623

2031 10564 24753 5999 5340 58338 1151 2939 109084

2032 11628 27246 6387 5686 63331 1204 3063 118545

2033 11894 27869 6484 5772 64579 1217 3095 120910

2034 11894 27869 6484 5772 64579 1217 3095 120910

2035 11894 27869 6484 5772 64579 1217 3095 120910

Table 10-10: Forecasts for Alternative 1- (Scenario 3) - with 7.2% GDP growth rate
Year HT T B MB C MC TW Total

2020 753 1763 1054 938 7199 132 294 12133

2021 1021 2392 1079 961 7854 201 537 14045

2022 2149 5036 2040 1816 15271 438 1223 27973

2023 3206 7512 2873 2558 21852 663 1892 40555

2024 4024 9428 3479 3097 26736 841 2424 50029

2025 4841 11344 4086 3637 31621 1018 2957 59503

2026 6053 14183 4507 4012 38063 1105 3101 71024

2027 7265 17022 4928 4387 44505 1193 3244 82544

2028 8476 19861 5349 4762 50947 1280 3388 94064

2029 9688 22700 5770 5137 57390 1368 3532 105585

2030 10900 25539 6191 5511 63832 1455 3676 117105

2031 11263 26391 6318 5624 65765 1481 3719 120561

2032 11263 26391 6318 5624 65765 1481 3719 120561

2033 11263 26391 6318 5624 65765 1481 3719 120561

2034 11263 26391 6318 5624 65765 1481 3719 120561

2035 11263 26391 6318 5624 65765 1481 3719 120561

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Table 10-11: Forecasts for Alternative 1 + At- Grade Road Widening- (Scenario 4)
year HT T B MB C MC TW Total

2020 650 1527 932 822 6115 109 244 10398

2021 865 2032 943 832 6681 165 424 11941

2022 1809 4251 1774 1565 12997 358 956 23709

2023 2691 6322 2490 2197 18603 542 1471 34315

2024 3371 7921 3010 2655 22766 686 1880 42288

2025 4051 9519 3529 3113 26929 830 2289 50260

2026 4983 11721 3815 3391 31790 895 2414 59008

2027 5915 13923 4101 3668 36650 960 2538 67756

2028 6848 16126 4386 3946 41511 1025 2663 76504

2029 7780 18328 4672 4223 46371 1090 2787 85252

2030 8712 20530 4958 4501 51232 1155 2912 94000

2031 9644 22732 5244 4779 56093 1220 3037 102748

2032 10576 24934 5530 5056 60953 1285 3161 111496

2033 11509 27137 5815 5334 65814 1350 3286 120244

2034 11509 27137 5815 5334 65814 1350 3286 120244

2035 11509 27137 5815 5334 65814 1350 3286 120244

Table 10-12: Forecasts for Alternative 2 - (Scenario 1)

Year HT T B MB C MC TW Total

2020 550 1649 1092 997 6163 117 255 10822

2021 731 2194 1106 1009 6733 177 444 12393

2022 1530 4592 2079 1898 13098 384 1001 24580

2023 2276 6829 2918 2665 18748 581 1540 35556

2024 2851 8555 3527 3221 22943 736 1969 43801

2025 3426 10282 4136 3777 27138 891 2397 52046

2026 4321 13099 4614 4214 33010 982 2581 62820

2027 5216 15917 5092 4650 38882 1072 2765 73594

2028 6112 18734 5570 5087 44755 1163 2948 84369

2029 7007 21552 6048 5523 50627 1253 3132 95143

2030 7902 24369 6526 5960 56499 1344 3316 105917

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2031 8797 27186 7004 6397 62371 1435 3500 116691

2032 9137 28257 7186 6563 64603 1469 3570 120785

2033 9137 28257 7186 6563 64603 1469 3570 120785

2034 9137 28257 7186 6563 64603 1469 3570 120785

2035 9137 28257 7186 6563 64603 1469 3570 120785

Table 10-13: Forecasts for Alternative 2- (Scenario 2) with growth 6%

Year HT T B MB C MC TW Total

2020 649 1517 896 798 6546 116 261 10783

2021 874 2044 914 814 7187 175 450 12457

2022 1836 4294 1725 1537 14010 379 1011 24791

2023 2735 6398 2427 2162 20077 573 1554 35927

2024 3431 8025 2937 2617 24588 725 1985 44309

2025 4127 9653 3447 3071 29099 878 2416 52690

2026 5296 12389 3862 3441 35452 969 2608 64019

2027 6466 15126 4278 3811 41806 1061 2800 75348

2028 7636 17862 4693 4181 48160 1153 2992 86677

2029 8806 20599 5108 4551 54514 1245 3184 98006

2030 9976 23335 5523 4921 60867 1337 3376 109335

2031 11146 26072 5938 5291 67221 1428 3568 120664

2032 11146 26072 5938 5291 67221 1428 3568 120664

2033 11146 26072 5938 5291 67221 1428 3568 120664

2034 11146 26072 5938 5291 67221 1428 3568 120664

2035 11146 26072 5938 5291 67221 1428 3568 120664

Table 10-14: Forecasts for Alternative 2-(Scenario 3) with - GDP growth 6%

Year HT T B MB C MC TW Total

2015 776 1822 1126 1002 7178 129 289 12323

2016 1040 2440 1146 1019 7863 196 505 14208

2017 2180 5116 2159 1920 15315 426 1139 28255

2018 3245 7616 3035 2700 21936 645 1753 40930

2019 4068 9547 3672 3266 26855 817 2241 50466

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2020 4891 11478 4308 3832 31774 989 2729 60002

2021 6152 14439 4740 4216 38140 1078 2910 71675

2022 7414 17399 5171 4600 44506 1167 3090 83348

2023 8675 20360 5603 4984 50872 1256 3270 95021

2024 9937 23320 6034 5369 57238 1345 3451 106694

2025 11198 26281 6466 5753 63604 1434 3631 118367

2026 11387 26725 6531 5810 64559 1447 3658 120118

2027 11387 26725 6531 5810 64559 1447 3658 120118

2028 11387 26725 6531 5810 64559 1447 3658 120118

2029 11387 26725 6531 5810 64559 1447 3658 120118

2030 11387 26725 6531 5810 64559 1447 3658 120118

10.7 TRAVEL TIME FORECASTS

In order to find out the benefit of travel time savings for the proposed Elevated Expressway Project
travel time forecasts are made. This forecast is made for each of the modeled year, for each of the
time slots (peak, off-peak, super-off-peak) and each of the scenarios. The result is summarized in
the following tables. In these tables we have listed travel times in six different scenario designations
from A to H.
Table 10-15: Proposed Travel Time Scenarios
A => No Change Scenario/ Business-As-Usual (Scenario 1)

B => Expressway in Alternative Alternative- 1 (Scenario 2)

C => Existing At-Grade Road in Alternative Alternative-1 (Scenario 3)

D => Existing At-Grade Road with Widening (Scenario 4)

E => Existing At-Grade Road in Alternative-2 (Scenario 1)

F => Expressway in Alternative Alternative-2 (Scenario 2)

G => Existing At-Grade Road in Alternative- 1+

H => At-Grade Road Widening Alternative-2 (Scenario 3)

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Table 10-16: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2020 - Peak Period at different Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 18.46 5.65 13.71 9.75 5.39 8.36 16.03 ECB to KAlshi 5.84

Kalshi to ECB 12.69 3.88 9.43 6.70 3.71 5.75 11.02 Kalshi to ECB 5.04

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

22.57 6.90 16.77 11.91 6.59 10.22 19.59 8.91
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

5.08 1.55 3.77 2.68 1.48 2.30 4.41 4.54
ECB ECB

Kalshi to Lalmati 13.85 4.24 10.29 7.31 4.04 6.27 12.02 Kalshi to Lalmati 2.81

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

Chattar 18.46 5.65 13.71 9.75 5.39 8.36 16.03 Chattar 5.05

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

18.46 5.65 13.71 9.75 5.39 8.36 16.03 5.95
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

13.85 4.24 10.29 7.31 4.04 6.27 12.02 5.95
Mirpur-12 Mirpur-12

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

6.92 2.12 5.14 3.65 2.02 3.14 6.01 5.05
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

6.92 2.12 5.14 3.65 2.02 3.14 6.01 2.81
Shagufta Shagufta

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

5.08 1.55 3.77 2.68 1.48 2.30 4.41 4.54
Chattar Chattar

KIHS to Pallabi 22.57 6.90 16.77 11.91 6.59 10.22 19.59 KIHS to Pallabi 8.91

Pallabi to KIHS 12.69 3.88 9.43 6.70 3.71 5.75 11.02 Pallabi to KIHS 5.04

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

18.46 5.65 13.71 9.75 5.39 8.36 16.03 5.84
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

Table 10-17: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2020 - Off-Peak Period at different Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 10.67 5.33 10.67 8.14 5.11 7.82 11.18 ECB to KAlshi 5.62

Kalshi to ECB 7.33 3.67 7.33 5.59 3.51 5.37 7.68 Kalshi to ECB 4.84

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

13.04 6.52 13.04 9.95 6.24 9.56 13.66 8.57
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

ECB 2.93 1.47 2.93 2.24 1.40 2.15 3.07 ECB 4.36

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Kalshi to Lalmati 8.00 4.00 8.00 6.10 3.83 5.86 8.38 Kalshi to Lalmati 2.70

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

10.67 5.33 10.67 8.14 5.11 7.82 11.18 4.85
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

10.67 5.33 10.67 8.14 5.11 7.82 11.18 5.72
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

8.00 4.00 8.00 6.10 3.83 5.86 8.38 5.72
Mirpur-12 Mirpur-12

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

4.00 2.00 4.00 3.05 1.91 2.93 4.19 4.85
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

4.00 2.00 4.00 3.05 1.91 2.93 4.19 2.70
Shagufta Shagufta

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

Chattar 2.93 1.47 2.93 2.24 1.40 2.15 3.07 Chattar 4.36

KIHS to Pallabi 13.04 6.52 13.04 9.95 6.24 9.56 13.66 KIHS to Pallabi 8.57

Pallabi to KIHS 7.33 3.67 7.33 5.59 3.51 5.37 7.68 Pallabi to KIHS 4.84

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

10.67 5.33 10.67 8.14 5.11 7.82 11.18 5.62
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

Table 10-18: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2020 - Super-Off-Peak Period at different
Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 8.14 5.05 7.38 7.27 5.03 7.02 9.81 ECB to KAlshi 5.25

Kalshi to ECB 5.59 3.47 5.08 5.00 3.46 4.82 6.74 Kalshi to ECB 4.53

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

9.95 6.18 9.03 8.89 6.14 8.58 11.99 8.00
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

2.24 1.39 2.03 2.00 1.38 1.93 2.70 4.07
ECB ECB

Kalshi to Lalmati 6.10 3.79 5.54 5.45 3.77 5.26 7.35 Kalshi to Lalmati 2.53

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

Chattar 8.14 5.05 7.38 7.27 5.03 7.02 9.81 Chattar 4.53

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

8.14 5.05 7.38 7.27 5.03 7.02 9.81 5.35
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

6.10 3.79 5.54 5.45 3.77 5.26 7.35 5.35
Mirpur-12 Mirpur-12

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

3.05 1.89 2.77 2.73 1.88 2.63 3.68 4.53
Chattar Chattar

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DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to
3.05 1.89 2.77 2.73 1.88 2.63 3.68 2.53
Shagufta Shagufta

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

2.24 1.39 2.03 2.00 1.38 1.93 2.70 4.07
Chattar Chattar

KIHS to Pallabi 9.95 6.18 9.03 8.89 6.14 8.58 11.99 KIHS to Pallabi 8.00

Pallabi to KIHS 5.59 3.47 5.08 5.00 3.46 4.82 6.74 Pallabi to KIHS 4.53

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

8.14 5.05 7.38 7.27 5.03 7.02 9.81 5.25
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

Table 10-19: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2025 - Peak Period at different Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 23.70 6.08 19.52 15.00 5.91 14.40 22.61 ECB to KAlshi 5.84

Kalshi to ECB 16.30 4.18 13.42 10.31 4.06 9.90 15.54 Kalshi to ECB 5.04

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

28.98 7.43 23.86 18.34 7.23 17.60 27.64 8.91
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

6.52 1.67 5.37 4.13 1.63 3.96 6.22 4.54
ECB ECB

Kalshi to Lalmati 17.78 4.56 14.64 11.25 4.43 10.80 16.96 Kalshi to Lalmati 2.81

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

23.70 6.08 19.52 15.00 5.91 14.40 22.61 5.05
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

23.70 6.08 19.52 15.00 5.91 14.40 22.61 5.95
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

17.78 4.56 14.64 11.25 4.43 10.80 16.96 5.95
Mirpur-12 Mirpur-12

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

8.89 2.28 7.32 5.63 2.22 5.40 8.48 5.05
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

8.89 2.28 7.32 5.63 2.22 5.40 8.48 2.81
Shagufta Shagufta

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

6.52 1.67 5.37 4.13 1.63 3.96 6.22 4.54
Chattar Chattar

KIHS to Pallabi 28.98 7.43 23.86 18.34 7.23 17.60 27.64 KIHS to Pallabi 8.91

Pallabi to KIHS 16.30 4.18 13.42 10.31 4.06 9.90 15.54 Pallabi to KIHS 5.04

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

23.70 6.08 19.52 15.00 5.91 14.40 22.61 5.84
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

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Table 10-20: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2025 - Off-Peak Period at different Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 12.15 5.39 11.09 10.28 5.49 9.73 12.24 ECB to KAlshi 5.62

Kalshi to ECB 8.35 3.71 7.62 7.07 4.73 6.69 8.41 Kalshi to ECB 4.84

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

14.86 6.59 13.55 12.57 8.37 11.89 14.96 8.57
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

3.34 1.48 3.05 2.83 4.26 2.68 3.36 4.36
ECB ECB

Kalshi to Lalmati 9.11 4.04 8.31 7.71 2.64 7.30 9.18 Kalshi to Lalmati 2.70

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

12.15 5.39 11.09 10.28 4.74 9.73 12.24 4.85
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

12.15 5.39 11.09 10.28 5.59 9.73 12.24 5.72
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

Mirpur-12 9.11 4.04 8.31 7.71 5.59 7.30 9.18 Mirpur-12 5.72

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

4.56 2.02 4.16 3.85 4.74 3.65 4.59 4.85
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

4.56 2.02 4.16 3.85 2.64 3.65 4.59 2.70
Shagufta Shagufta

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

3.34 1.48 3.05 2.83 4.26 2.68 3.36 4.36
Chattar Chattar

KIHS to Pallabi 14.86 6.59 13.55 12.57 8.37 11.89 14.96 KIHS to Pallabi 8.57

Pallabi to KIHS 8.35 3.71 7.62 7.07 4.73 6.69 8.41 Pallabi to KIHS 4.84

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

12.15 5.39 11.09 10.28 5.49 9.73 12.24 5.62
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

Table 10-21: Travel Time (min.) for Yr 2025 Super-Off-Peak Period at different Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 9.56 5.22 9.06 8.19 5.17 7.83 9.95 ECB to KAlshi 5.36

Kalshi to ECB 6.57 3.59 6.23 5.63 3.56 5.38 6.84 Kalshi to ECB 4.63

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

11.69 6.38 11.07 10.01 6.32 9.57 12.17 8.18
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

ECB 2.63 1.43 2.49 2.25 1.42 2.15 2.74 ECB 4.16

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Kalshi to Lalmati 7.17 3.91 6.79 6.14 3.88 5.87 7.46 Kalshi to Lalmati 2.58

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

Chattar 9.56 5.22 9.06 8.19 5.17 7.83 9.95 Chattar 4.63

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

9.56 5.22 9.06 8.19 5.17 7.83 9.95 5.46
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

Mirpur-12 7.17 3.91 6.79 6.14 3.88 5.87 7.46 Mirpur-12 5.46

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

Chattar 3.59 1.96 3.40 3.07 1.94 2.93 3.73 Chattar 4.63

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

Shagufta 3.59 1.96 3.40 3.07 1.94 2.93 3.73 Shagufta 2.58

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

Chattar 2.63 1.43 2.49 2.25 1.42 2.15 2.74 Chattar 4.16

KIHS to Pallabi 11.69 6.38 11.07 10.01 6.32 9.57 12.17 KIHS to Pallabi 8.18

Pallabi to KIHS 6.57 3.59 6.23 5.63 3.56 5.38 6.84 Pallabi to KIHS 4.63

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

9.56 5.22 9.06 8.19 5.17 7.83 9.95 5.36
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

Table 10-22: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2030 - Peak Period at different Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 26.37 8.42 23.70 20.56 7.08 19.24 24.62 ECB to KAlshi 8.69

Kalshi to ECB 18.13 5.79 16.30 14.13 4.87 13.23 16.92 Kalshi to ECB 7.49

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

32.24 10.29 28.98 25.13 8.65 23.52 30.09 13.25
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

ECB 7.25 2.32 6.52 5.65 1.95 5.29 6.77 ECB 6.74

Kalshi to Lalmati 19.78 6.32 17.78 15.42 5.31 14.43 18.46 Kalshi to Lalmati 4.18

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

Chattar 26.37 8.42 23.70 20.56 7.08 19.24 24.62 Chattar 7.50

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

26.37 8.42 23.70 20.56 7.08 19.24 24.62 8.85
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

19.78 6.32 17.78 15.42 5.31 14.43 18.46 8.85
Mirpur-12 Mirpur-12

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

Chattar 9.89 3.16 8.89 7.71 2.65 7.21 9.23 Chattar 7.50

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DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to
Shagufta 9.89 3.16 8.89 7.71 2.65 7.21 9.23 Shagufta 4.18

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

Chattar 7.25 2.32 6.52 5.65 1.95 5.29 6.77 Chattar 6.74

KIHS to Pallabi 32.24 10.29 28.98 25.13 8.65 23.52 30.09 KIHS to Pallabi 13.25

Pallabi to KIHS 18.13 5.79 16.30 14.13 4.87 13.23 16.92 Pallabi to KIHS 7.49

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

26.37 8.42 23.70 20.56 7.08 19.24 24.62 8.69
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

Table 10-23: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2030 - Off- Peak Period at different Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 14.33 6.23 12.39 11.76 6.17 10.68 13.25 ECB to KAlshi 7.25

Kalshi to ECB 9.85 4.29 8.52 8.09 4.24 7.34 9.11 Kalshi to ECB 6.25

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

17.52 7.62 15.14 14.38 7.54 13.05 16.20 11.05
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

ECB 3.94 1.71 3.41 3.24 1.70 2.94 3.64 ECB 5.62

Kalshi to Lalmati 10.75 4.68 9.29 8.82 4.63 8.01 9.94 Kalshi to Lalmati 3.49

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

14.33 6.23 12.39 11.76 6.17 10.68 13.25 6.26
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

14.33 6.23 12.39 11.76 6.17 10.68 13.25 7.38
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

10.75 4.68 9.29 8.82 4.63 8.01 9.94 7.38
Mirpur-12 Mirpur-12

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

5.37 2.34 4.65 4.41 2.31 4.00 4.97 6.26
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

Shagufta 5.37 2.34 4.65 4.41 2.31 4.00 4.97 Shagufta 3.49

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

Chattar 3.94 1.71 3.41 3.24 1.70 2.94 3.64 Chattar 5.62

KIHS to Pallabi 17.52 7.62 15.14 14.38 7.54 13.05 16.20 KIHS to Pallabi 11.05

Pallabi to KIHS 9.85 4.29 8.52 8.09 4.24 7.34 9.11 Pallabi to KIHS 6.25

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

14.33 6.23 12.39 11.76 6.17 10.68 13.25 7.25
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

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Table 10-24: Travel Time (minutes) for Year 2030 -Super-Off- Peak Period at different
Scenarios
Travel Time (minutes)

Links (A-F) A B C D E F G Links (H) H

ECB to KAlshi 10.17 5.78 9.94 8.12 5.47 8.01 10.16 ECB to KAlshi 6.06

Kalshi to ECB 6.99 3.98 6.83 5.58 3.76 5.50 6.99 Kalshi to ECB 5.22

ECB – to Banani ECB – to Banani

12.43 7.07 12.15 9.93 6.68 9.79 12.42 9.24
Flyover Flyover

Banani Flyover to Banani Flyover to

2.80 1.59 2.73 2.23 1.50 2.20 2.79 4.70
ECB ECB

Kalshi to Lalmati 7.63 4.34 7.45 6.09 4.10 6.01 7.62 Kalshi to Lalmati 2.91

Kalshi to DOHS Kalshi to DOHS

10.17 5.78 9.94 8.12 5.47 8.01 10.16 5.23
Chattar Chattar

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

10.17 5.78 9.94 8.12 5.47 8.01 10.16 6.17
Kalshi Kalshi

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

7.63 4.34 7.45 6.09 4.10 6.01 7.62 6.17
Mirpur-12 Mirpur-12

Mirpur 12 – DOHS Mirpur 12 – DOHS

Chattar 3.81 2.17 3.73 3.05 2.05 3.00 3.81 Chattar 5.23

DOHS Chattar to DOHS Chattar to

Shagufta 3.81 2.17 3.73 3.05 2.05 3.00 3.81 Shagufta 2.91

Shagufta to DOHS Shagufta to DOHS

2.80 1.59 2.73 2.23 1.50 2.20 2.79 4.70
Chattar Chattar

KIHS to Pallabi 12.43 7.07 12.15 9.93 6.68 9.79 12.42 KIHS to Pallabi 9.24

Pallabi to KIHS 6.99 3.98 6.83 5.58 3.76 5.50 6.99 Pallabi to KIHS 5.22

DOHS Gate to DOHS Gate to

10.17 5.78 9.94 8.12 5.47 8.01 10.16 6.06
Shagufta Chattar Shagufta Chattar

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CHAPTER-11
TRAFFIC SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES

11.1 GENERAL
It is found that, the existing capacity of the proposed project area and study area road is not enough
to carry the current traffic load, and pedestrian must separate from the vehicle according to the
standard classification. To minimize the problem, alternative traffic solutions are proposed for vehicle
flows (e.g., flyover, road widening and tunnel) to improve the vehicular traffic in proposed project
area in this chapter. Next a set of criteria are defined to evaluate the best solution. Cost of each
solution, environmental impact from the solution, land acquisition requirement for each solution,
construction time and the demand (time taken to get down the Level of Service (LOS C to LOS D))
were selected as the criteria. Environmental impact is taken as a qualitative criterion while others
are taken as the quantitative criteria. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a commonly used multi
criteria decision support system, is used to obtained best alternatives for smooth vehicular flow
separately. Later tree diagram concept was used to reach the best composite solution for the
problem. The fly over for vehicles came out as the best solution from AHP. For validating the
suitability of constructing new flyover for traffic improvement, the consultant has reviewed the
performance of existing flyovers in Dhaka City.

11.2 MCDA MODEL - TRAFFIC IMPROVEMENT ALTERNATIVE

11.2.1 ALTERNATIVE VEHICULAR TRAFFIC FLOW
The following alternative structural modifications to the road stretch are considered by the consulting
team for identifying the best possible and effective road way improvement solution through MCDA
modeling for the proposed project area.
4. Widening of the existing road stretch
5. Tunnel beneath the existing road stretch
6. Flyover above the existing road stretch
The selection of the most effective and feasible alternative or combined alternatives are depends
on constraints. (1) Cost, (2) Demand, (3) Construction Time, (4) Land Acquisition, and (5)
Environmental Impact were selected to study this problem. Out of those, ‘environmental impact’ is
a qualitative alternative while others are quantitative alternatives. To analysis this problem, two AHP
structures were prepared as shown in Figure 11-1.

Figure 11-1: Alternative selection process of Road way Improvement Alternative

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The approach is to find the priority vectors for each alternative in two sections; and combined them
to attain the best combined alternative solution using a tree diagram concept. Alternatives for
vehicular flow (Road Widening, Tunnel, and Flyover) are compared with quantitative criteria (cost,
demand, construction time, and land acquisition).

Table 11-2: Quantitative values for alternatives

Alternative Cost /(million) Demand Construction Land
/(years) time / (month) acquisition/(millio
n)
Tunnel 125 10 30 6
Road 5 48
60 10
widening
Fly over 100 10 24 12

The alternatives were compared pair wise with qualitative criterion ‘Environmental Impact’.

Table 11-3: Pair wise comparison for EI

EI Tunnel Road Flyover Priority
Widening vector
Tunnel 1 2 3 0.539

Road 1/2 0.297

1 2
Widening
Flyover 1/3 1/2 1 0.164

Then the synthesized matrix was developed as shown in Table 11-4.

Table 11-4: Synthesized matrix for three alternatives

Alternative Cost Demand Construction time Land acquisition EI
Tunnel 0.439 0.250 0.469 0.091 0.539
Road widening 0.211 0.500 0.156 0.727 0.297
Flyover 0.351 0.250 0.375 0.182 0.164

11.2.2 ALTERNATIVES FOR PEDESTRIAN FLOW

Alternatives for pedestrian flow (Underpass, Overpass) are compared with quantitative criteria (cost,
demand, construction time, and land acquisition).

Table 11-5: Quantitative values for pedestrian flow alternatives

Alternative Cost /(million) Demand Construction Land
/(years) time / (month) acquisition/(million)
Underpass 2.5 10 3 1.1
Overpass 2.4 7 1 1.1

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Table 11-6: Pair wise comparison for EI
EI Tunnel Road Widening Priority vector

Underpass 0.667
1 2

Overpass 1/2 0.333

1

Table 11-7: Synthesized matrix for two alternatives

Alternative Cost Demand Construction time Land acquisition EI
Underpass 0.510 0.412 0.750 0.500 0.667
Overpass 0.490 0.588 0.250 0.500 0.333

11.2.3 CRITERIA COMPARISON WITH THE GOAL

Table 11-8: Pair wise comparison for the five criteria and Priority vector for vehicle flow
Cost Demand Construction Land EI Priority
time acquisition Vector

Cost 1 3 3 2 5 0.405

Demand 1/3 1 2 2 4 0.235

Construction time 1/3 1/2 1 1/2 2 0.115

Land acquisition 1/2 1/2 2 1 3 0.182

EI 1/5 1/4 1/2 1/3 1 0.063

Table 11-9: Priority matrix for three alternatives for vehicular flow
Construction Land
Cost Demand EI Priority
time acquisition
(0.405) (0.235) (0.063) Vector
(0.115) (0.182)
Tunnel 0.439 0.250 0.469 0.091 0.539 0.341
Road Widening 0.211 0.500 0.156 0.727 0.297 0.372
Flyover 0.351 0.250 0.375 0.182 0.164 0.287

Table 11-10: Pair wise comparison for the five criteria and Priority vector for pedestrian
flows
Cost Deman Construction Land EI Priority
d time acquisition Vector

Cost 1 3 2 3 4 0.385

Demand 1/3 1 3 3 3 0.261

Construction time 1/2 1/3 1 3 3 0.188
Land acquisition 1/3 1/3 1/3 1 2 0.101
EI 1/4 1/3 1/3 1/2 1 0.069

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Table 11-11: Priority matrix for two alternatives for pedestrian flow
Construction Land Priority
Cost Demand EI
time acquisition Vector
(0.382) (0.261) (0.069)
(0.188) (0.101)
Underpass 0.510 0.412 0.750 0.500 0.667 0.540
Overpass 0.490 0.588 0.250 0.500 0.333 0.460

11.2.4 COMBINED ALTERNATIVES

Using tree diagram alternatives for vehicle flow and alternatives for safe pedestrian crossing were
studied. Figure 11-2 shows the complete tree diagram.

Figure 11-2: Tree diagram of alternative selection

11.2.5 MCDA MODEL OUTPUT

In this combinations tunnel with underpass and flyover with overpass were impossible because
practically cannot do such construction together. According to the above calculations; the
combination CD (flyover with under pass) was selected. Although the flyover prepared for the vehicle
flow for the short trip vehicle can use the existing road (see Figure 11-3).
Fly over, Road widening and Tunnel are proposed to minimize the traffic issues from the vehicles.
Overpass and Underpass are proposed to minimize the traffic issues caused by the pedestrians,
which also brings the safety for the pedestrian. Having concerned the cost, demand, construction
time, land acquisition, the environmental impact, the best possible solution from the above proposed
alternatives is chosen using AHP method. From the AHP method Flyover with the underpass was
selected as the best option to reduce traffic congestion in the studied area as it brings the highest
benefits from the lowest possible cost among the other alternatives.

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11.3 PERFORMENCE REVIEW STUDY OF EXISTING FLYOVERS
The consultant team has identified the most suitable roadway facility development alternative as
construction of new flyover in the project area. But flyovers, have both advantages and
disadvantages. To verify the applicability of flyover for the proposed project area, the consultant has
reviewed performance scenario of existing flyovers in Dhaka city from secondary sources. A review
study titled as “Effectiveness of Flyovers Constructed over Railway Line by Anwari N. Hoque M.S.,
Ph.D.and Islam M.R” had investigated the current performance level of existing flyovers in Dhaka
City back in 2016. The following Table 11-12 shows the list of reviewed flyovers during that study.

Table 11-12: Descriptive Characteristics of Studied Flyovers

11.3.1 LEVEL OF PERFORMENCE

11.3.1.1 ASSESSMENT OF TRAFFIC FLOW
Classified traffic count was performed to assess the relative level of usage of road space under and
over the flyover. Since vehicles of various sizes and weights pass through the study area, it was felt
that their impact needed to be judged using a common unit. Hence, the vehicle counts were
converted to passenger car units, as depicted in Table 11-13, using the following passenger car
equivalent (PCE) factors prescribed by the Ministry of Communication (2011): Rickshaw/Van: 2.00,
Motorcycle: 0.75: Bicycle: 0.50, Car: 1.00, CNG: 0.75,Tempo: 0.75, Bus: 3.00, Utility: 1.00, Truck:
3.00, Bullock Carts: 4.00. Accordingly traffic flow in terms of PCUs were obtained multiplying vehicle
count data by their corresponding PCE factors.

Table 11-13: 15-Minute Classified Traffic Count in Studied Flyovers

The equivalent hourly vehicular flows were obtained by converting the 15-minute flow data into
hourly flow and then by multiplying peak hour factor (PHF) of 0.92 as recommended by Highway
Capacity Manual. These converted flow data are presented in Table 11-13. The table shows that

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relatively peak hour traffic flow is highest at Khilgaon Flyover and lowest at Jatrabari-Gulistan
Flyover. Besides, the Khilgaon also boasts highest at grade traffic density, while Banani Overpass
demonstrates the lowest at grade traffic. Moreover, Banani Overpass and Jatrabari-Gulistan Flyover
represent largest and smallest above grade traffic flow.

The numerical values of Jatrabari-Gulistan flyover can be attributed to toll collection system on the
flyover, which discourages vehicles from getting on the flyover. Critical analysis of Table 11-13
shows that on average, 67% of traffic flow use at grade road. The highest at-grade flow occurred
beneath the Khilgaon flyover (6756 PCU/hr) while the highest above-grade flow occurred at Banani
Overpass (2831 PCU/hr). A larger portion of the traffic stream in three of the flyovers, namely in
Ahsanullah Master Flyover, Khilgaon Flyover and Jatrabari-Gulistan Flyover travel at at-grade level
as compared to travelling above grade. Because the at-grade motor traffic make conflicts with the
train movements at the level crossings at these sites, it can be essentially concluded that those three
flyovers have failed in their objective in segregating rail and traffic and thereby eliminating
congestion as well as failed to improve safety problems.
Table 11-13 further reveals that NMVs comprising of rickshaws, vans and bicycles make the largest
share of flow in Ahsanullah Master Flyover, Khilgaon Flyover and Jatrabari-Gulistan Flyover. On the
other hand, it appeared from the above-below flyover analysis that the private cars are the most
beneficiaries of the flyover projects particularly in Banani Overpass and Mohakhali Flyover. The
single largest mode of vehicle was calculated to be 1686 PCU of rickshaws (25%) in Khilgaon
Flyover. Understandably, only a negligible percentage of total NMVs (0.18%) pass over the flyover,
which is clarified in Table 11-14.

Table 11-14: Proportion of NMVs Travelling Over and Under Flyover

The low percentage of NMVs travelling above grade can be attributed to the dimensions and grades
of the approach ramps of flyovers that make it difficult for NMVs to get on the flyover. This means
that a significant portion of traffic will always be forced to travel at-grade and come in conflict with
rail, implying that there will always be conflict with rail at level crossings whether or not flyovers are
present. Consequently, it can easily be concluded that it is never completely possible to eliminate
conflicts at level crossings. Critical examination of Table 11-13 shows that NMVs take the largest
share of flow beneath the Khilgaon Flyover (92.03%) and the smallest share beneath the Banani
Overpass (20.09%). On average 48.91% of at-grade flow is attributed to NMVs. Meaning nearly
50% of existing vehicles will continue to come in conflict with rail. The problem is most acute in
Ahsanullah Master Flyover, Khilgaon Flyover and Jatrabari-Gulistan Flyover, because the largest
number of vehicles passing underneath of those flyovers is NMVs. Hence, flyovers have not helped
NMVs at all. Focusing on the larger picture, Table 11-14 shows the relative usage by vehicles of
road space over and under each flyover. In three of the flyovers, a larger fraction of the vehicles
travel at-grade than above grade. Hence, those three flyovers have completely failed in their
objective to reduce conflicts, because the at-grade traffic causes conflict with rail. Besides, a
sizeable amount of traffic also traverses at-grade in Mohakhali flyover. Only Banani Overpass has
been effective in reducing conflicts between rail and road traffic.

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In light of the above discussion and charts, it can be concluded that the majority (67%) of the traffic
travels at grade. Even though conversing with local people revealed that traffic congestion has
eased compared to when there were no flyovers, it is evident that flow interruption and level of
congestion will worsen with the ever growing size of motorized and non-motorized vehicle fleet along
with high degree of pedestrian movement. Therefore, it is clear that it would not be able to make
conflict free movements for both rail and road traffic in the studied flyovers, which is the prerequisite
of controlling congestion and improving safety. For further examination, the above analysis is made
coupling with traffic speed measurements, as discussed in the next section, which show that at-
grade speed and mobility decreases when at-grade traffic volume rises.

11.3.1.2 ASSESSMENT OF OPERATIONAL SPEED

Speed of each type of vehicle was measured at each flyover to assess the mobility conditions of
vehicles both at-grade and above grade. For a specific grade of a particular flyover, the speed of
each class of vehicle was multiplied with the hourly PCUs of vehicle. This product was divided by
the total hourly PCUs (Figure 2) to obtain operating speed. The calculations were repeated for all
grades (over and under flyover) and for all flyovers and presented in Figure 11-3. It is observed that
the fastest above¬grade average speed was in Jatrabari - Gulistan Flyover (56.82 km/hr), while the
slowest was in Ahsanullah Master Flyover (29.89 km/hr). The combined above-grade average speed
was 50.24 km/hr. On the other hand, fastest at-grade average speed was observed in Banani
Overpass (42.63 km/hr) while the slowest is in Khilgaon Flyover (11.63 km/hr). Considering the
overall situation (combining at-grade with above grade) speed is highest at Banani Overpass and
lowest in Ahsanullah Master Flyover. The combined above-grade average speed was 14.83 km/hr,
meaning a vehicle on average is 3.39 times slower in at-grade traffic. In this regard a weak
relationship was observed between vehicle flow and average speed. Increase in vehicle flow
reduced average speed and vice- versa.

Figure 11-3: Average Speed Over and Under Flyover

From the speed study, it can be deduced that even though above-grade movement is smooth flow
at high speed, the at-grade speed is significantly slower. And since majority of vehicles travel at
grade as shown previously, it is concluded that flyovers have not helped the case for mobility.

11.3.1.3 ASSESSMENT OF QUEUE LENGTH

Queue lengths were measured to assess congestion levels in level crossings. As Khilgaon level
crossing is situated near a cross-junction, the queue length was observed from four directions.
Mohakhali level crossing is on a T-junction, the queue was observed from three directions. For the
other level crossings, queue lengths were measured from two directions, which are summarized in
Figure 6. No queue was observed to form on any of the studied flyovers. Critical analysis of Figure
6 reveals that queue length is longest in Khilgaon Flyover (434 m), and shortest in Banani Overpass
(17m). Since the level crossing in Khilgaon is near an intersection, more vehicles will understandably
be affected. The queue length can be linked to the vehicle flow in Table 11-13, where flow is highest

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under the Khilgaon Flyover and lowest under the Banani Overpass. Besides, close observation of
Figure 11-4, in association with Figures 11-3 reveals that the flyovers those facing more congestion
also have lower average speeds at at-grade level. Hence, it can be concluded that the flyovers have
not fulfilled their targets of reducing congestion. It is anticipated that the situation will become more
precarious in the future with increasing motor vehicle growth and construction of the 3rd and 4th rail
lines through Dhaka city.

Figure 11-4: Queue Length at Grade Level (Under Flyover)

11.3.1.4 SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF FLYOVERS

Safety assessment of flyovers was made using both empirical observations on pedestrian
movements and analysis of accident data collected from secondary sources.

Assessment of Accident Records

Examination of the raw accident data collected from Kamalapur Administration Building informs that
no accidents have occurred in the last four years (2010-2014) at level crossings under the studied
flyovers. From which it may be presumed that flyovers have been successful at maintaining safety
in level crossings. However, according to Table 1, since majority of the flyovers started operations
during the study period (2010-2014), it can be reasoned that the existing accident data are
insufficient to draw reasonable conclusions.

Assessment of Pedestrians’ Risk

Pedestrians are one of the most vulnerable and fully exposed road user groups. Hence it is
imperative to assess pedestrian safety at grade level i.e. underneath flyovers. Field observation has
revealed that in the absence of any grade separated crossing facilities, the pedestrians are
compelled to cross the level crossings, thereby exposing and putting them in danger from both road
and rail traffic.

11.3.2 CONCLUDING REMARKS

In light of the above discussion and assessment pointed out, it is revealed that the flyovers
constructed above level crossing have been generally successful in reducing conflicts among rail,
road traffic & pedestrians and have not improved mobility and safety significantly. The five partial-
grade flyovers studied were constructed at a total cost of 2624.5 crore taka with a view to solve
traffic congestion and safety problems at those at-grade level crossings and thereby to ensure
conflict free faster movement of train in the urban part of Dhaka City.

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CHAPTER-12
IMPACT OF FLYOVER ON FUTURE TRAFFIC FLOW

12.1 FUTURE INTERSECTION TRAFFIC FLOW

Detailed traffic counts were carried out at the intersections, during the weekday morning (06:00 -
08:30), weekday afternoon (16:00 - 19:00) and Saturday midday (10:00 - 14:00) peak periods. The
peak hour traffic volumes, at the intersections discussed in Chapter 08.
Given the existing weekday morning, weekday afternoon and Saturday midday peak hour traffic
volumes, refer to Figure 2, and the projected growth rate as discussed in Chapter -09 and Chapter-
10, the expected future target year (2014) peak hour traffic volumes were calculated.
12.2 FUTURE CAPACITY ANALYSIS OF INTERSECTIONS WITH
FLYOVER
The existing peak hour traffic volumes were used to determine the levels-of-service (LOS) at which
the intersection is presently operating. The capacity analysis were done according the method as
contained in the capacity analysis computer package, which defines the operation of an intersection
in terms of levels-of-service. The levels-of-service of a traffic light controlled
intersection/roundabouts is defined in terms of average total vehicle delay (not average stop delay),
where delay is a measure of driver discomfort, frustration, fuel consumption and lost travel time.
However, for an unsignalised intersection the average total delay for any particular minor movement
is a function of the service rate or capacity of the approach and the degree of saturation.

The base year (2019) and expected target year (up to 2040) peak hour traffic volumes, including the
trips generated by the proposed development. The capacity analysis model was again used to
determine the LOS. For the purpose of this study, it was assumed that the road upgrading
recommended for the Background Traffic scenarios have been implemented for the base year
(2019) and the target year (up to 2040) respectively. The following tables contain a summary of the
analysis results for the base year (2019) and few more target years (up to 2040), with detailed
results.
Table 12-1: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2021)

TOTAL AVERAGE VEHICLE DELAY & LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS)

PEAK NORTHBOUND WESTBOUND SOUTHBOUND EASTBOUND

INTERSECTION INTERSECTION
HOUR APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH

S D L S D L S D L S D L S D L

AM 0.14 1.3 A 0.03 14.9 B 0.10 0.1 A 0.14 1.0 A

ECB CHATTAR PM 0.13 2.6 A 0.13 20.4 C 0.20 0.2 A 0.20 1.7 A

SAT 0.17 3.0 A 0.23 23.2 C 0.21 0.2 A 0.23 2.3 A

KKALSHI MOAR AM 0.38 25.6 C 0.37 12.6 B 0.36 26.0 C 0.74 16.3 B 0.74 19.6 B

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PM 0.50 27.8 C 0.74 16.7 B 0.46 27.4 C 0.81 20.1 C 0.81 21.8 C

SAT 0.97 36.3 D 0.70 18.0 B 0.67 29.6 C 1.00 18.0 B 1.00 24.4 C

AM 0.20 1.6 A 0.12 22.3 C 0.13 0.1 A 0.20 1.4 A

Kalshi MOAR K.I

PM 0.18 2.1 A 0.10 22.4 C 0.16 0.4 A 0.18 1.7 A
H.S Intersection

SAT 0.22 2.0 A 0.17 25.2 D 0.16 0.3 A 0.22 1.8 A

AM 0.29 28.1 D 0.21 6.0 A 0.04 17.3 C 0.35 3.1 A 0.35 5.6 A

Shagufta Moar
PM 0.74 58.7 F 0.34 5.9 A 0.15 29.3 D 0.29 7.7 A 0.75 10.5 A
Intersection

SAT 0.77 53.4 F 0.28 5.6 A 0.09 20.8 C 0.32 5.6 A 0.78 10.1 B

Table 12-2: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2025)
TOTAL AVERAGE VEHICLE DELAY & LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS)

PEAK NORTHBOUND WESTBOUND SOUTHBOUND EASTBOUND

INTERSECTION
HOUR APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH INTERSECTION

S D L S D L S D L S D L S D L

AM 0.19 1.4 A 0.04 15.7 C 0.12 0.1 A 0.16 1.1 A

ECB CHATTAR PM 0.15 3.0 A 0.18 23.0 C 0.22 0.2 A 0.22 2.0 A

SAT 0.17 3.0 A 0.23 23.2 C 0.21 0.2 A 0.23 2.3 A

AM 0.38 25.9 C 0.40 11.3 B 0.40 26.3 C 0.59 14.8 A 0.59 18.9 B

KKALSHI MOAR PM 0.50 28.1 B 0.79 17.1 B 0.53 27.8 C 0.49 17.7 B 0.79 21.6 B

SAT 0.97 41.3 D 0.97 52.7 D 0.77 33.0 C 0.69 21.0 C 0.97 36.8 C

AM 0.22 1.8 A 0.14 24.6 C 0.14 0.1 A 0.22 1.6 A

Kalshi MOAR K.I H.S PM 0.20 2.4 A 0.14 25.2 D 0.18 0.4 A 0.20 1.9 A
Intersection
SAT 0.24 2.4 A 0.23 30.4 D 0.18 0.3 A 0.25 2.2 A

AM 0.08 19.8 B 0.47 17.0 B >1.0 >50 F >1.0 >50 A

Shagufta Moar PM 0.86 34.4 D 0.90 37.5 E 0.96 38.1 E 0.96 37.1 A
Intersection
SAT 0.84 31.8 D 0.72 23.5 C 0.98 46.6 E 0.98 35.5 A

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Table 12-3: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2030)
TOTAL AVERAGE VEHICLE DELAY & LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS)

PEAK NORTHBOUND WESTBOUND SOUTHBOUND EASTBOUND

INTERSECTION
HOUR APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH INTERSECTION

S D L S D L S D L S D L S D L

AM 0.17 1.6 A 0.43 23.7 C 0.12 1.1 A 0.43 3.6 A

ECB CHATTAR PM 0.14 3.2 A 0.53 31.2 D 0.20 1.3 A 0.54 4.2 A

SAT 0.17 2.8 A 0.28 24.5 C 0.20 0.4 A 0.27 2.7 A

AM 0.54 27.4 C 0.53 12.3 B 0.41 26.6 C 0.61 15.6 B 0.61 19.6 B

KKALSHI MOAR PM 0.92 33.4 C 0.87 24.4 C 0.49 27.8 C 0.60 19.6 B 0.92 25.5 C

SAT 0.86 31.5 C 0.74 17.5 C 0.57 29.2 C 0.68 18.0 B 0.86 23.1 C

AM 0.23 0.9 A 0.75 30.1 D 0.16 0.8 A 0.75 4.7 A

Kalshi MOAR K.I H.S PM 0.20 1.5 A 0.54 27.8 D 0.21 1.3 A 0.54 3.9 A
Intersection
SAT 0.22 0.4 A 0.16 21.2 C 0.16 0.3 A 0.22 1.1 A

AM 0.02 11.1 B 0.38 5.2 A 0.01 14.5 B 0.50 4.7 A 0.50 5.1 A

Shagufta Moar PM 0.41 14.4 B 0.60 6.3 A 0.10 19.2 B 0.69 6.5 A 0.70 7.9 A
Intersection
SAT 0.30 11.1 B 0.39 5.6 A 0.01 13.1 B 0.49 6.1 A 0.50 7.0 A

Table 12-4: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2035)
TOTAL AVERAGE VEHICLE DELAY & LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS)

PEAK NORTHBOUND WESTBOUND SOUTHBOUND EASTBOUND

INTERSECTION
HOUR APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH INTERSECTION

S D L S D L S D L S D L S D L

AM 0.18 1.8 A 0.56 28.2 D 0.13 1.1 A 0.56 4.2 A

ECB CHATTAR PM 0.15 3.8 A 0.62 33.9 D 0.22 1.3 A 0.62 4.6 A

SAT 0.18 3.0 A 0.31 26.4 D 0.21 0.4 A 0.31 2.8 A

AM 0.59 27.8 C 0.56 12.8 B 0.44 26.8 C 0.65 16.1 B 0.65 20.0 B

KKALSHI MOAR PM 1.00 32.7 C 0.95 40.8 D 0.54 28.3 C 0.75 21.5 C 1.00 31.7 C

SAT 1.00 33.8 C 0.81 21.5 C 0.67 30.1 C 0.75 20.0 B 1.00 25.5 C

AM 0.24 0.9 A 0.82 34.0 D 0.16 0.8 A 0.82 5.3 A

Kalshi MOAR K.I H.S PM 0.22 1.5 A 0.69 34.4 D 0.22 1.3 A 0.69 4.4 A
Intersection
SAT 0.24 0.4 A 0.23 24.7 C 0.18 0.3 A 0.24 1.3 A

AM 0.02 11.7 B 0.42 5.2 A 0.02 15.6 B 0.55 4.7 A 0.55 5.1 A

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PM 0.52 17.5 B 0.67 6.6 A 0.13 22.0 C 0.77 6.8 A 0.80 8.7 A
Shagufta Moar
Intersection SAT 0.36 11.7 B 0.43 5.7 A 0.02 14.0 B 0.55 6.3 A 0.55 7.3 A

AM 0.49 15.0 B 0.43 6.8 A 0.33 20.2 C 0.86 16.4 B 0.87 13.3 B

PM 0.69 24.3 C 0.73 10.3 B 0.38 20.1 C 0.92 21.8 C 0.92 17.1 B
ECB CHATTAR

SAT 0.36 13.2 B 0.43 6.5 A 0.12 13.0 B 0.63 8.2 A 0.63 8.5 A

Table 12-5: Levels of Service at Intersections - With Development (Target Year 2040)
TOTAL AVERAGE VEHICLE DELAY & LEVEL OF SERVICE (LOS)

PEAK NORTHBOUND WESTBOUND SOUTHBOUND EASTBOUND

INTERSECTION
HOUR APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH APPROACH INTERSECTION

S D L S D L S D L S D L S D L

AM 0.33 19.8 C 0.08 36.0 E 0.55 0.0 A 0.55 7.6 A

ECB CHATTAR PM 0.67 27.8 D 0.81 >50 F 0.46 0.2 A 0.83 18.3 C

SAT 0.42 12.1 B 0.14 28.3 D 0.42 0.1 A 0.42 6.4 A

AM 0.06 1.5 A 0.09 11.9 B 0.05 1.9 A 0.09 4.3 A

KKALSHI MOAR PM 0.08 2.6 A 0.06 12.5 B 0.09 2.1 A 0.09 3.5 A

SAT 0.04 0.5 A 0.01 11.5 B 0.04 0.7 A 0.04 1.2 A

AM 0.06 2.1 A 0.08 11.7 B 0.05 1.4 A 0.08 4.3 A

Kalshi MOAR K.I H.S PM 0.09 2.9 A 0.05 12.2 B 0.07 1.8 A 0.09 3.5 A
Intersection
SAT 0.05 0.8 A 0.01 11.4 B 0.04 0.7 A 0.05 1.5 A

AM 0.05 26.4 D 0.83 11.5 B 0.39 32.3 D 0.51 0.3 A 0.83 7.1 A

Shagufta Moar PM 0.06 37.9 E 0.58 0.8 A 0.29 34.7 D 0.47 0.6 A 0.60 1.8 A
Intersection
SAT 0.06 24.3 C 0.40 0.2 A 0.06 24.7 C 0.43 0.1 A 0.43 0.7 A

12.3 OVERALL EXPECTED INTERSECTION PERFORMENCE WITH

FLYOVER
In chapter-09, level of service for all intersection and roads along the proposed flyover alignment
was identified. In every case the study team has found very undesirable for each road section and
intersection. Introducing flyover at Kalshi offers uninterrupted and grade separated traffic flow
management opportunities here. By considering this grade separation and diverting a considerable
amount of motorized vehicle, the consulting team has developed future traffic flow scenario for all
four intersections from 2021 to 2040. From Table 12-1 to 12-5 it is noticeable that due to
development of flyover traffic flow rate and level of service for each intersection will be developed
significantly in future.

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CHAPTER-13
IMPACT OF FLYOVER ON FUTURE TRANSPORT

13.1 GENERAL
Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh is carrying population of more than 15 million resulting the
generation of heavy traffic congestion at the road intersections. Flyover, important part of urban
transport system, is a useful tool to solve the traffic congestion and to make traffic flow smooth and
uninterrupted. The proposed Matikata-DOHS flyover will be eighth grade-separated expressway of
Dhaka city. It will be constructed to connect Greater Mirpur area, Pallabi, Matikata, Greater Mirpur
area DOHS and Uttara area mostly with the north-eastern part of the city.
The chapter mainly discusses potential impacts on the road transportation system of the project
area due to construction of proposed flyover. This study reveals that the proposed flyover will have
many positive impacts on improving connectivity of greater Greater Mirpur area area, especially with
the north-western and north-eastern part of Dhaka city. It will also improve the transportation system
by establishing uninterrupted road communication through Matikata, Pallabi and Greater Mirpur area
DOHS area, by reducing travel time and distance to a great extent and making communication
almost congestion free.

13.2 PURPOSE AND GOAL OF PROPOSED FLYOVER

The Proposed flyover will be constructed by the SWO (Special Works Organization) of Bangladesh
Army, having a length of 2.85 kilometers for supporting more than 2.5 million inhabitants of greater
Greater Mirpur area (Structure Plan Report of DMDP Area, 2015). It will be constructed as a junction
treatment with a view to overcoming heavy traffic congestion at Kalshi intersection, Shagufta
intersection and Matikata road as well as for establishing uninterrupted road transportation from
Greater Mirpur area-12 and Greater Mirpur area DOHS to North-eastern part of Dhaka City via
Kalshi and Matikata.

Greater Greater Mirpur area is a major part of Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC) covering the
areas of zone 2 and zone 5 (Ahmed and Mohuya, 2013). It is a planned residential area located at
the north-west quadrant of Dhaka and was developed for the people of middle and lower income
group (STP, 2005). Greater Mirpur area area was developed for the rehabilitation of refugees and
non-Bengali ‘Biharis’. With the orientation of improved road transportation system, Greater Mirpur
area is gradually developing towards its north. According to the structural design standard for road
and highways, the proposed flyover layout plan can be marked as a kind of junction treatment which
is called trumpet interchange. Trumpet interchange resembles a trumpet and comes under three
legs interchange (Hiraskar, 1989). Flyovers are essential at the intersections for uninterrupted and
free movement of traffic (Marufa, 2002). The inhabitants of greater Greater Mirpur area area are
supposed to be benefited most with improved road transportation system and developed
connectivity with north western and north eastern part of Dhaka city by this proposed flyover. It is
expected that the construction of this new flyover will established a smooth connectivity of greater
Greater Mirpur area with the areas of north-western part of Dhaka city like Airport road, even up to
Uttara, Tongi, Gazipur and also north eastern part like Banani, Gulshan, Mohakhali etc. places by
reducing travelling distance, time, energy etc.

13.3 EFFECTIVENESS OF PROPOSED FLYOVER

The road network of Dhaka city is mainly north-south and northwest-southwest oriented (Hassan,
2007).The Proposed Flyover will orient the connectivity between the north eastern part (Greater
Mirpur area) to the north western part (Uttara, Tongi etc.) of Dhaka city. It will also connect greater

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Greater Mirpur area area with Banani, Gulshan, Mohakhali etc. areas to the other side. The potential
impacts of Proposed Flyover on improvement of the connectivity has been analyzed by the
consulting team members through Origin- Destination (O-D) survey, Traffic survey and connectivity
analysis.
13.4 ORIGIN AND DESTINATION OF THE TRAFFIC
The O-D survey data reveals that “from Greater Mirpur area” in the morning peak hour nearly 80
percent of traffic (8-10 am) originates in different sections of Mirpur area whereas Greater Mirpur
area section 10, 1, 2, 11, 12 and Matikata are noteworthy. These trips are mostly destined to the
north western and north eastern part of Dhaka city. The next important destined areas are Gulshan,
Mohakhali, Rampura and Shahjadpur to the other side of the city. The rest originates in more distant
areas like Jirabo of Savar, Hemayetpur, Kallayanpur, Lalmatia, Segunbagicha, Shyamoli and
Mohakhali. These trips are mostly destined to Uttara followed by Gulshan, Banani and Mohakhali.
At the peak hour of traffic “to Greater Mirpur area” majority of the trips are destined to Greater Mirpur
area section 2, due to Sher E Bangla national stadium, then to section 10, 12, 1, 6, Kalshi, Kazipara,
Shewrapara, Agargaon, Manikdi, and Greater Mirpur area DOHS.
Whereas the traffic coming towards Greater Mirpur area at both peak and off peak hour originate
from diverse areas. Most of these trips originate from Kuril-Bishwa road followed by Uttara, Banani,
Airport, Gulshan and Mohakhali. Trips also originate from Gazipur, Shewra (Uttara) and Badda. At
the off-peak hour of traffic the priority of destination places goes to Greater Mirpur area 10, Pallabi,
and Mirpur DOHS area, these are residential areas with numbers of commercial buildings and
famous Benarashi Pally is also located here. It has also been found that at off-peak hour trips are
destined to more distant and diverse areas than the peak hour where Farmgate, Motijheel, Tejgaon,
Zhigatala, Gazipur, and Mawa are observed. A few numbers of new areas connected by the
proposed flyover route alternative are seen here like, Bashundhara, Baridhara, Tongi, Radisson
hotel, and Mymensingh also. Figure 13-1 shows presently most connected areas with Greater
Mirpur area by the proposed flyover route alignment.

Figure 13-1: Most Connected Areas with Greater Mirpur area through Proposed Flyover Route
Alignments

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13.5 ROAD TRAFFIC AND CONNECTIVITY
13.5.1 ROAD TRAFFIC SCENARIO
One of the most important characteristics of a stream of traffic is its flow indicated by the number of
vehicles passing through a fixed point at a unit of time, referred to as volume (Dey, 2008). In the
opinion of Lt. Col. Md. Zahidul Karim (Commanding Officer, 17 ECB) not less than 150,000 people
of various classes will use the proposed flyover per hour in a day after completion and opening.

Volume survey data reveals that at the peak hour of traffic along the proposed flyover route
alignments are being used by a huge volume of vehicles. The results of traffic survey are discussed
in Chapter-07 in detail. All types of vehicles movement are higher in the morning peak hour than
that of evening. It clearly depicts that there exist a huge difference between the morning and evening
peak hour of traffic.

In the off-peak hour, volume of traffic along the proposed flyover route alignments (in different road
segments) are not low rather it is also citable. The survey results also show that, in the off-peak hour
huge number of vehicles move from and to Greater Mirpur and Matikata area respectively. Among
the vehicles running within the proposed flyover’s route alignments, the notable modes are private
cars, CNG auto rickshaws, mini bus, jeep, laguna and Motor Cycles. Per hour flow of traffic from the
project area ‘to Greater Mirpur area’ seems more than ‘from Greater Mirpur area’. More than 1500
of vehicles move towards Greater Mirpur area using the proposed flyover route alignments even in
the off-peak hour. The survey result describes that people from Greater Mirpur area are moving
more to other areas than towards Greater Mirpur area, which means inhabitants of Greater Mirpur
area are making tour and de-tour using the proposed flyover route alignments.

13.5.2 CONNECTIVITY
Connectivity terms the connected quantity between nodes in a given network, to extract overall
structure of transportation network. It is one of important information to assess transportation
network. The impact of proposed flyover on improvement of the connectivity of Greater Mirpur area
up to Uttara was analyzed using Binary Connectivity matrix, where comparison of present and
previous connectivity was considered.

The Binary connectivity matrix or simply the connectivity matrix (C) shows direct link between nodes
by binary coding: one (1) if direct link exists, zero (0) if no direct link exists. Table 13-1 shows present
binary connectivity matrix.

Table 13-1: Present Binary Connectivity Matrix

Areas Shewra Nikunja Kuril Khilkhet Airport Uttara Total
Greater
1 1 1 1 1 1 6
Mirpur

The table reveals that at present Greater Mirpur area has a strong connectivity having direct links
with the six areas up to Uttara. Previous connectivity of Greater Mirpur area with all of the six areas
is showed in the Table 13-2 and it is clearly seen that the previous binary connectivity matrix result
of Greater Mirpur area is zero with all of the areas, which means the previous connectivity of Greater
Mirpur area with these areas was very poor.

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Table 13-2: Previous Binary Connectivity Matrix

Areas Shewra Nikunja Kuril Khilkhet Airport Uttara Total

Greater
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mirpur

The proposed flyover will establish a strong connectivity of Greater Mirpur area to the north-western
part of the city.

13.6 IMPACT OF PROPOSED FLYOVER ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION

A well-developed transportation system is crucially needed for the administrative, social, political
and commercial development of an area. Flyover is a modern form of transportation system and the
best solution for Dhaka city for solving the problem of traffic congestion and to improve the road
transportation system. The Proposed Flyover will be constructed to overcome traffic congestion and
to improve east-west connectivity of Greater Mirpur area. The inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area are
considered the beneficiary of the flyover. Survey data reveals that most of the respondents (78%)
will use it in their way of communication.

In Dhaka city about 97 percent of the lower and middle income people are dependent on low cost
public transport (STP, 2005). The survey data reveals that more than half of the respondents make
their trips through public buses and the rest using private transports. According to the opinion of the
respondents among the public transport (bus) user more than two-thirds of them use sitting service
bus for the sake of savings of time, safety and crowd free journey. And the rest one-third use buses
operated by Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTC), which are usually over crowded. The
user prefers to use the proposed flyover for cost effectiveness also for connectedness of more
distant areas from Gabtali to Gazipur Chourasta.

13.6.1 FUTURE PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODE

Public transport buses are prime means of transport mainly for the inhabitants of Greater Mirpur
area. According to the opinion of the two - thirds of the respondents buses are available in the
proposed flyover route and they can board on bus within 5 to 10 minutes. In other words the flyover
will facilitate the commuters in using the public transport.

13.6.2 FUTURE PREFERRED TRANSPORT ROUTE BY THE USERS

At present there are two major routes of road transportation from Greater Mirpur area towards
western part of Dhaka city, also with Banani, Kakoli, Gulshan, Mohakhali etc. places. One was
Agargaon route and another was via the Cantonment, where Agargaon was prime route. But after
the construction of the flyover there will be three major routes including the flyover. Then people will
mostly use the flyover route. Figure 13-2 shows the present and future transport routes preferred by
the respondents.
This flyover has created a new way of communication thus has boosted up the mobility of the
inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area to the western part of the city. Survey result reveals that nearly
one quarter of the respondents are now communicating with western part of Dhaka city (Kuril,
Airport, Uttara etc.) using the flyover. Thus it has oriented east-west connectivity of Dhaka city.

13.6.3 CAPACITY ANALYSIS OF INTERSECTIONS WITH FLYOVER

13.6.3 IMPACT ON TRAVEL TIME OF INHABITANTS

The proposed flyover will play a significant role in reducing travel time of inhabitants of Greater
Mirpur area, especially to the areas of western part of city. It will reduce travel distance from 11.0 to

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3.0 kilometer from Greater Mirpur area to Airport road (RDPP, 2011). Thus the flyover will save the
travel time of inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area not only to western side up to Gazipur but also to
Banani, Gulshan, Mohakhali etc. places.

At present, the inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area usually had to spend 1.5 hours to more than 2
hours to reach or return to their destination places. Respondents travel time (one way) before and
after flyover is simulated in Figure 13-3.

Figure 13-2: Present and Future Transportation Routes from Greater Mirpur area after
Construction of Proposed Flyover

Figure 13-3: Present Road User Travel Time (one way) along the Proposed Flyover Road
Alignment

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Most of the respondents’ travel time (one way) to present destination travel time is 90-120 minutes.
After construction of Matikata-Mirpur DOHS flyover, it is expected to be less than 45 mins.

Figure 13-4: Simulated Future Travel Time (one way) after Opening the proposed Flyover

The flyover will be most fruitful in reducing travel time of inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area. The
inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area has to commute to Airport or Uttara via Mohakhali, Banani etc.
places (two way) nearly 4-6 hours of a day.

Figure 13-4, simulated future travel time scenario with proposed flyover on ground, describes that
most of the respondents (80 %) will be able to reach to their destination places using the flyover
within 30 minutes.

13.6.4 IMPACT ON REDUCTION OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION

Together with the rapid population expansion, Dhaka city is experiencing heavy traffic congestion.
The proposed flyover will be constructed with a view to making traffic flow uninterrupted from Greater
Mirpur area to other surrounding areas. According to the opinion of the half of the respondents in
reducing traffic congestion the proposed flyover is expected to 100 percent successful and will be
eliminate traffic jam from their daily commuting. At present, traffic congestion used to take away
valuable time from the life of the inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area at the time of their daily
commuting.

Figure 13-5: Time Consumed by Traffic Congestion

13.7 PUBLIC OPINION ABOUT THE PROPOSED FLYOVER

Majority of the respondents (70%) has claimed that traffic congestion used to consume 2-4 hours
from their life in their everyday journey, which used to occur mostly at the peak hour of morning and
evening (Figure 13-5). Congestion used to take place at Kalshi Intersection and Shagufta Moar.

Majority of the respondents stated that the proposed flyover will make their movement congestion
free and rescue them from it in their daily commuting to the northwestern part of the city. A few
numbers of respondents (15 %) believe that a little traffic congestion occurs for 15 to 20 minutes.

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This congestion occurs at the node of Kalshi road and Mirpur-12 intersection, usually at the peak
hour of traffic. Majority of the respondents (84%) has said that the proposed flyover will have a
positive role in the reduction of traffic congestion of Greater Mirpur area and Kalshi Area. It will
reduce traffic congestion about 60 to more than 70 percent by diverting traffic flow to the flyover
route. It will also make the journey enjoyable by increasing the running speed of the vehicles. It
takes 3 to 5 minutes to cross the flyover from Kalshi to ECB Chattar and maximum 7-10 mins from
Mirpur DOHS / Mirpur-12 to ECB Chattar.

13.8 IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD TRAFFIC SECURITY

According to the opinion of the most of the respondents (85 %) travelling through flyover will be more
secured than existing road. And few of them have opined that it will not be secured as they face
road accidents. Road accidents are common phenomena in everyday life of the dwellers of Dhaka
city. Together with the orientation of new and improved way of road transportation system for the
inhabitants of Greater Mirpur area, the proposed flyover also aimed at reducing road accidents. In
the opinion of Lt. Col. Md. Zahidul Karim, the flyover will decrease road accidents significantly.

13.9 OVERALL FUTURE SCENARIO

The proposed flyover will orient a new dimension in the road transportation system of Greater Mirpur
area as well as in the Dhaka city. It will be mostly successful in improving the connectivity and
transportation system of Greater Mirpur area and Kalshi area including Mirpur-12 and Mirpur DOHS.
Vehicles running through the proposed flyover route networks ‘from Greater Mirpur area’ originate
generally from different sections and destined mostly to the areas of northwestern part of Dhaka
city, also beyond Dhaka city like Gazipur, Mymensingh, Mawa of Munshiganj etc. The flyover will
also connect Greater Mirpur area with the areas of Banani, Gulshan, Mohakhali, Farmgate etc.
places. It will generate a strong connectivity of Greater Mirpur area with north western part of Dhaka
city. On an average more than 1000 number of vehicle of all types including heavy vehicles will
move to and from Greater Mirpur area through the proposed flyover.

The significant impacts of the flyover execution will be the reduction of travel time from minimum 1.5
hours to nearly 20-30 minutes with the reduction of travel distance from 11 kilometer to nearly 3
kilometer. It will make travel possible almost traffic congestion free for the inhabitants of Greater
Mirpur area in travelling to Airport, Uttara, Tongi, Gazipur etc. places.

Public transports will also be increased after opening the flyover as it expects a little deficiency seen
at the peak period of traffic. Availability of public transports will make communication easier for the
inhabitants of almost all income group of Greater Mirpur area to western part of Dhaka city than the
before. The flyover will also develop better accessibility with Banani and other north-eastern parts
of Dhaka City mostly for the private transport user. Simultaneously the proposed flyover will provide
greater road safety to the road users and vehicle by reducing chances of accidents.

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CHAPTER-14
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT OF
PROPOSED FLYOVER

14.1 General
Economic benefits costs analysis is one of the measuring rods for determining quantifiable benefits
expected and actual in relation to the costs of investment including operation and maintenance. It
determines the economic viability of projects at the feasibility study stage. Different types of
approaches are used to calculate quantifiable project benefits in recent years. For the economic
evaluation purpose of this project, the HDM VOC version - VI (Vehicle Operating Cost Saving)
approach has been used. The VOCs (Vehicle Operating Cost Saving) approach is an accepted
approach world-wide, although it requires a number of assumptions and value judgments. The VOCs
approach is followed for economic analysis of urban road sub-projects. The following inputs data
are used in performing the economic analysis of the road projects.

The Economic evaluation with VOCs approach includes the following three steps;
(1) Traffic flow count
(2) Calculation of VOC and TTC benefits
(3) Calculation of Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) for Base case and sensitivity
Analysis.
14.2 TRAFFIC INFORMATION
Traffic survey has been conducted on two consecutive week days (02 days) and twenty four hours
traffic counts data were undertaken on the project road through field survey. Generated traffic has
also been determined based on 4-step modelling. Average existing and generated Annual Average
Daily Traffic (AADT) per road section are detail discussed in Chapter -8 and Chapter 09.

14.3 Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC & TTC)

The major source of benefits from improving undeveloped urban road sub-projects is savings in
vehicle operating costs (VOC and TTC) over the smoother road surface for vehicles of all types. For
economic analysis, the distinction between without project and with project in their existing
conditions has been taken into account. For without project the IRI (International Roughness Index)
is assumed at 5.00 m/km, with project is assumed at 2.00 m/km and good bituminous carpeting
(BC). For the “with project” roads, an average lifetime roughness of IRI 3.00 m/km is assumed. For
the assessment of the analysis the unit Road Users Cost has been taken from Road user cost-2004-
05 and RMP-2006-07, RHD and updated as per RMP methodology. The costs have been
interpolated and projected to adjust with the market price of 2018-19 based on 10 years average
inflation rate as 6.62%. The Unit VOC and TTC on the basis of IRI after the interpolation and
projection stands as below:

Table 14-1: Per kilometre Vehicle Operating Cost by Roughness (2015-16 prices)
IRI Value Truck Bus Micro Utility/Ca Auto/ M.Cycle Average
r CNG

3 21.893 24.572 22.183 18.216 4.571 2.590 15.671

5 23.661 26.333 23.867 19.451 4.812 2.671 16.799

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Table 14-2: Travel Time Costs for different modes (2015-2016)

Vehicle category TTC per VKM (Tk./ hours)

Financial Economic
Truck 262.00 209.53

Bus 1710.62 1368.53

Micro bus 664.22 564.58
Car 274.42 219.46
Utility 142.86 121.43
Auto/Easy bike 217.87 185.19
M- cycle 65.08 55.32

Note: Consultant could not consider speed as per International Roughness Index due to traffic
congestion in Dhaka city.

14.4 COST SAVINGS BENEFITS

Transport economist visited the project physically and collected actual travel time by vehicles to
calculate the TTC saving. The costs (VOC) savings have been derived by the differences amongst
cost for different IRI related to the road surface condition with and without project. Two types of
traffic have been considered to calculate benefits from transport sector. They are: existing and
generated/ induced traffic. Generated and induced traffic benefits have been assumed 23.5 percent
of total benefits. The calculated of VOC and TTC saving benefits are shown in following Table 14-
3.

Table 14-3: Total VOC and TTC Saving Benefits in Million BDT

VOC Saving Benefits TTC Saving Benefits Total Benefits

112.6 212.0 324.6

14.5 PROJECT COSTS

14.5.1 Construction Costs
The project cost has been taken from Design and Supervision Consultants and is shown below:

Year Financial in million BDT Economic in million BDT

2018-2019 2927.43 2284.80

14.5.2 MAINTENANCE COSTS

Maintenance cost is spread in the analysis based on criteria presented in the following table. Routine
maintenance is done every year, seal coat in every five years and overlay done in every ten years.

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Sl. Maintenance Per km costs in mill. BDT
No. types
Financial Economic

1 Routine 0.80 0.68

2 Seal coat 10.40 8.84

3 Overlay 23.76 20.20

14.6 ESTIMATION OF BENEFITS

The estimation of benefits that will accrue from a road for traffic is based on savings in per VKm
operating costs savings (VOCs), the increase of traffic volume, and per VKm travel time costs (TTCs)
“with project” situation. The procedure for estimation of benefit from VOC savings benefits is as
follows:

 1ST year benefits = 0

 2nd year benefits = 100 % of existing and generated traffic
 After the design life the residual value has been considered as 40% of the road construction Cost

The incremental benefit increases at the rate of 6.5 percent respectively.

14.6.1 SHADOW FACTOR (CONVERSION FACTOR)

The financial costs have been converted into economic costs by using Standard Conversion Factor
(SCF) 0.85.

14.6.2 DISCOUNT RATE

The discount rate of 15% as suggested by the client has been taken for carrying out discount cash
flow analysis of the annual stream of costs and benefits.

14.6.3 LIFE CYCLE

The project has been analyzed with a designed life of 20 years as per standard practice in
Bangladesh.

14.6.4 TRAFFIC GROWTH RATE

Annual traffic growth rate has been considered as per following table:

Table 14-4: Adopted Growth Rate of Motorized Vehicles

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14.6.5 Net Present Value (NPV)
The Net Present Values have been calculated following the standard formula as set in M.S. EXCEL
Program.

14.6.6 ECONOMIC INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (EIRR)

EIRR has been calculated for zero NPV following the standard formula as applied in different
software throughout the analysis.

14.6.7 BENEFIT COST RATIO

Benefit cost ratio has been calculated as per the following formula:

NPV mn
BCR  1
Cm (Odoki, Kerali 2000)

Where, NPV m-n = Net present value in the life cycle started from m to end year n.

Cm = Discounted base cost at base year m

14.7 SENSITIVITY TEST

Investments in urban transport infrastructure projects, like any other investments, involve
uncertainties and risks, such as cost overrun, non-realization of the traffic projected and other
benefits, or all together. The effect of these uncertainties has been evaluated under the Sensitivity
Analysis. The Sensitivity Analysis has been carried out for varying sub-project cost and benefits and
reworking the costs and benefits analysis for the following scenarios:

(i) Investment cost increases by 15%

(ii) Decrease in project benefits by 15%
(iii) Increase and Decrease in cost and benefit by 15%

14.7.1 COST BENEFIT STREAM (BASE CASE AND SENSITIVITY)

The base case cost benefit stream analysis of roads in ECB Chattar to DOHS Gate-1, Mirpur, Dhaka,
has been shown in Table 14-5.

Table 14-5: Benefits Cost stream (Figure in mill. BDT)

Base Case Sensitivity Test

Years Net Both
Costs Benefits
Capita O&M VOC TTC Total cash case
l Saving Saving benefits Flow
Cost Benefit
Total increase decreased
cost d by 15% by 15%
2018-19 2924.8 2924.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2924.8 -3477.5 -2924.8 -3477.5
2019-20 2.52 2.52 112.6 212.0 324.6 322.1 321.7 273.39 273.01
2020-21 2.52 2.52 130.6 305.5 436.1 433.6 433.2 368.17 367.80
2021-22 2.52 2.52 151.6 352.2 503.8 501.2 500.9 425.68 425.30
2022-23 2.52 2.52 175.9 406.1 582.0 579.5 579.1 492.17 491.80
2023-24 32.71 32.71 204.2 468.3 672.5 639.8 634.9 538.90 533.99
2024-25 2.52 2.52 235.9 537.6 773.6 771.1 770.7 655.02 654.64
2025-26 2.52 2.52 272.7 617.3 890.0 887.5 887.1 753.99 753.61
2026-27 2.52 2.52 315.2 708.9 1024.1 1021.6 1021.2 867.99 867.61

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2027-28 2.52 2.52 364.4 814.3 1178.6 1176.1 1175.7 999.32 998.94
2028-29 2.52 2.52 421.2 935.4 1356.7 1354.1 1353.8 1150.64 1150.27
2029-30 2.52 2.52 487.1 1074.7 1561.8 1559.3 1558.9 1325.03 1324.65
2030-31 2.52 2.52 563.3 1235.0 1798.3 1795.8 1795.4 1526.02 1525.65
2031-32 2.52 2.52 651.5 1419.4 2070.9 2068.3 2068.0 1757.72 1757.34
2032-33 2.52 2.52 753.5 1631.6 2385.1 2382.6 2382.2 2024.84 2024.46
2033-34 74.73 74.73 865.6 1865.7 2731.3 2656.6 2645.4 2246.87 2235.66
2034-35 2.52 2.52 994.3 2133.6 3128.0 3125.4 3125.1 2656.24 2655.86
2035-36 2.52 2.52 1142.3 2440.2 3582.5 3580.0 3579.6 3042.61 3042.24
2036-37 2.52 2.52 1312.3 2791.1 4103.5 4100.9 4100.6 3485.42 3485.04
2037-38 2.52 2.52 1507.8 3192.7 4700.5 4698.0 4697.6 3992.94 3992.56
2038-39 32.71 32.71 1732.5 3652.4 5384.9 5352.2 5347.3 4544.48 4539.58
2039-2040 2.52 2.52 1990.9 6292.5 8283.4 8280.9 8280.5 7038.37 7037.99

14.7.2 Results of economic analysis including sensitivity

The results of economic analysis including sensitivity analysis for the road from ECB Chattar to
DOHS Gate -1, Mirpur, Dhaka, are summarized in the table below:

Table 14-6: The results of economic analysis including sensitivity analysis

The results of economic analysis clearly indicates that the project “Widening and Improvement of
Road from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS Gate-1” under Dhaka city area is economically viable from
the point of view of all the economic parameters considered important for the above analysis. The
above results shows that even in the worst scenario of increasing cost by 15 percent and decreasing
benefits by 15 percent results in reduced EIRR is close to 15 percent discount rate. So, the proposed
investments are highly economically justified.

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CHAPTER-15
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

15.1 GENERAL
This feasibility study report on construction of Mirpur DOHS- Kalshi Flyover from ECB Chattar to
Mirpur DOHS Gate -1 in order to improve the existing inadequate road traffic condition as well as
capacity assessment for future traffic demand. The feasibility study was conducted by the
APARAJITA Design Development Ltd., a consulting firm, in February, 2019. In this chapter, a
preliminary assessment is made on existing socio-environmental condition prevailing at project
study area with future potential or expected impacts due to implementation of different components
of the proposed project. Potential impacts on various environmental components due to different
project activities during pre-construction, construction, and O/M stages have been identified and
prioritized through generalized scoping exercise of the consulting team members. The impact
assessment and mitigation measures for resettlement site development are not covered in this
chapter.

This is a very preliminary level socio-environmental impact assessment and not recommended to
the readers as the in-depth environmental impact assessment (EIA) document. The project
implementation authority need to conduct a separate and full phased EIA study for the proposed
transport infrastructure development project.

15.2 PREDICTION OF IMPACTS

Impacts predictions are made by the consulting team members based on existing environmental
observations, conducted during traffic survey and field visits in accordance with existing socio-
environmental condition of the proposed study area.

Impacts may be occurred from different construction activities like as storage of construction
instruments and materials, cut and cover construction, excavation materials, drill and blast
construction etc. The environmental and social impacts due to project activities are considered into
three distinct stages of project lifecycle
a. Planning Phase
b. Construction Phase
c. Operation and Maintenance Phase.

Impacts of proposed flyover and transport infrastructure development project has been investigated
and refined through detail project document. The predicted impacts have been evaluated as per the
Guideline of DoE (Dept. of Environment). The following sections describe all the potential impacts
(stage wise) on anti-pollution, natural environment and social environment of the surroundings.

15.3 IMPACT DUE TO PROJECT ACTIVITIES

15.3.1 AIR POLLUTION
15.3.1.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The major sources of impacts on air quality by the project in the construction phases are as follows:
 Exhaust emission from movement of equipment by vehicles, excavated soil carrying by
vehicle and other heavy loaders;
 Earthworks including excavation and boring activities;
 Site clearance including removal of topsoil at the project site;

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 Construction site generate dust from construction materials, waste, loose earth, and moving
excavated material and transporting wastes on vehicles;
 Diesel based construction machineries may cause huge air quality impact;
 Loading and unloading construction materials;

A. DUST GENERATION
Maximum construction activities have the potentiality to generate dust. The expansion of impacts
from dust will depend on the location of construction activities and types of vehicles. Weather also
an important factor for dust generation. Stronger winds and dry condition will increase the transfer
of dust, where damp or wet conditions will reduce the impact.

Transportation of earth and establishment of the material will involve use of heavy machinery like
compactors, rollers, water tankers, and dumpers. This activity is machinery intensive resulting in
dust generation. However, this activity will be only short-term and the air pollution during construction
is localized and only around the station site, viaduct site and depot construction site only. The
magnitude of the impact associated with the emission of dust during construction activities on the
basis of above factors is predicted to be medium and the significance of the impacts is assessed to
be low.

B. EXHAUST GENERATION
Transportation of construction materials and excavated soil by trucks that use diesel to generate
power will cause impacts on ambient air quality. Operation of construction machine will cause air
exhaust generation. However, the air quality impacts associated with the vehicular and operational
equipment emissions during construction activities will less significant as the construction period will
be short term.

15.3.1.2 OPERATION STAGE

Vehicle exhaust emissions and entrained dust could increase in the vicinity of stations due to
increased movements of people. Losses of chemical cleaning fluids and odors from various sources
could be present at the depot area, generated by train maintenance activities.
However, the proposed flyover and transport infrastructure development project will be electrical
operation and not use diesel fuel. Moreover the operation will improve congestion of roads along
the MRT line and efficiency of the vehicle mobility. Consequently, increase in air pollution in Dhaka
city may be mitigated as a positive impact.

15.3.2 WATER POLLUTION

15.3.2.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The potential sources of impact to surface and ground water resources are:
 At the project site due to excavation activities may increase erosion during rainfall, that may
increase the suspended sediment concentration in the adjacent water body;
 The mismanagement of wastes that may causes water pollution in the project area although
the waste will be very small amount;
 Washing of construction materials will generate liquid effluents which causes water pollution
in the project area;
 Due to the dewatering for underground stations will cause impacts on groundwater situation;
 Vehicle operating at the construction areas

In the construction site, turbid water is discharged as a result of several types of construction
activities, such as site clearance, vehicle operating, cleaning, excavation etc. which will be very low
amount because most of the section will be run in the underground. Pile driven work in the elevated

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section may causes surface water pollution which is assessed as negligible as there are no major
water bodies in the elevated section.
Pollutants on construction sites can also soak into the groundwater, a source of human drinking
water. Once contaminated, groundwater is much more difficult to treat than surface water.
Underground water analysis stated that ground water quality meet the standards stipulated in
Schedule 9 and 10 of ECR, 1997.

15.3.2.2 OPERATION STAGE

The water pollution due to the operation of proposed flyover is negligible as there is no significant
source of pollution to water. Only there is a possibility of water pollution from the depot area where
rail maintenance will be carried out as a result lubricant as well as domestic waste might be
discharge in the water body.
15.3.3 SOIL POLLUTION
15.3.3.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The project may not have significant impact on soil pollution because most of the alignment of the
project will be done in the underground. There have minor chance to soil pollution due to construct
of the project include soil stabilization, installation of pilling, construct of viaduct sections,
construction of stations. Problems could arise from dumping of construction soils (concrete, bricks),
excavated soil dumping, waste materials (from contractors’ camp) etc. causes soil pollution. Oil leak
from poor machine and vehicle may also cause soil pollution. Waste from construction yard and
camp will lead to the soil pollution.

15.3.3.2 OPERATION STAGE

Oil leakage from the maintenance work at depot site may contaminate soil quality of the surrounding.

15.3.4 WASTE
15.3.4.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
During the construction stage several metric ton waste soils will be generated from boring as well
as station construction by cut and covers method. The management of waste soil is the major
challenge during the construction period. Different types of fragments of construction materials and
garbage also generate during the construction period. Solid and liquid waste also be generated from
the depot area construction site, construction yard and construction camp. Solid waste generated
from different area during construction site may impact on the surrounding soil as well as water
quality. Improper management of waste during the construction stage might be causes soil as well
as water pollution so the impact of waste has been assessed as significant.

15.3.4.2 OPERATION STAGE

At the operation phase no hazardous waste is expected to be generated except maintaining works,
car depot and operations of stations, miscellaneous municipal wastes, refreshments and ticketing
booths, empty cans and bottles, food residues and other similar waste that will be thrown out of rail.
The putrefaction of the organic component of the uncollected wastes will give rise to foul smells.
Uncollected waste also will act as breeding grounds for the disease producing vectors and will affect
the aesthetics of the project area.

15.3.5 NOISE AND VIBRATION

15.3.5.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
Construction sites are very common source of noise pollution. The main sources of noise at
construction sites are heavy machineries and transportation of equipment. Materials handling

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equipment, stationary equipment and other types of equipment etc. will be the major source of noise
pollution.

At the construction site sand compactions piles and vibratory compactions used to stabilize the fill,
heavy equipment operation during infilling the site will causes noise and vibration pollution. Noise
will also be generated at the construction of elevated section. Construction workers, Educational
Institutions, Religious institutions, local community, terrestrial fauna etc. will be affected for noise
generation at the construction phase.

Although construction materials will deliver by roads and most of the construction activities will be
done in the underground which result in slight increase in traffic movement and thereby in traffic
noise impacts to receptors near the road. Schedule 5 of the Environmental Conservation Rules,
1997 will be followed to minimize the impact.

15.3.5.2 OPERATION STAGE

The proposed flyover operation will generate noise and vibration. Noise and vibration may cause
problem in the surrounding but the elevated section area is less developed. Sound barrier will be
installed in the viaduct section so the impact due to noise generation will be less at the viaduct
section.

15.3.6 GROUND SUBSIDENCE

15.3.6.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
At the construction phase of the flyover there will be possibilities to ground subsidence due to the
boring activities at the underground. Ground subsidence may lead to the building collapse in the
urban area. As the proposed flyover route alignment will follow the existing road network so there is
less possibility of building collapse. The geological survey not yet completed throughout the
alignment so the impact is not clear at this moment. Proper method implementation and mitigation
measure is required to minimize the land subsidence during the construction.

15.3.6.2 OPERATION STAGE

During the operation phase of the proposed flyover, the possibility of the ground subsidence is less
as the will be shielded. As the subsoil investigation not yet completed so the impact is not clear at
this stage.

15.3.7 OFFENSIVE ODOR

15.3.7.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
Exhaust emission from heavy equipment causes odor problem. Though the construction camp site
not yet finalized but there is a possibility of odor problem due to the open burning of construction
waste, improper treatment of human liquid waste.

15.3.7.2 OPERATION STAGE

Improper solid waste management in the station area might be causes offensive odor but the
possibility of the impact is negligible as regularly the solid waste will be collected from the station.

15.3.8 BOTTOM SEDIMENT

15.3.8.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE
There is no chance of increasing the bottom sediment in the section. The elevated section
construction work may increase the bottom sediment load in the water body due to the run off of
turbid water from pile driving activities as well as accidental spillage from machineries and Oil leak

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from poor maintenance machine and vehicle may deteriorate bottom sediment of the water body.
The possibility of increase of bottom sediment is high due to depot development as the depot site is
located close to the River. There is no major water body along the viaduct section so the impact due
to construction of elevated section is negligible.

15.3.8.2 OPERATION STAGE

No impact is expected.

15.3.9 PROTECTED AREA

15.3.9.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE
Based on Bangladesh Wildlife Preservation Order 1973, Protected Areas (PAs) is classified into
national parks, wildlife sanctuaries, game reserves and private game reserves. There is no protected
area such as natural park, sanctuary and conservation site in the project alignment. National
Botanical Garden and Zoo are located on over 4.0 km from the project site. So no impact is assumed.

The 1995 Bangladesh Environment Conservation Act includes provision for Ecologically Critical
Area (ECA) declarations by the director general of the Department of the Environment in certain
cases where the ecosystem is considered to be in danger of reaching a critical state. In ECA, GOB
restricts activities and process of manufacture in the view of preventing deterioration of the
environment. In RAJUK, there are five ECA including one lake (Gulshan Banani-Baridhara Lake)
and four rivers (Buriganga, Turag, Balu and Shitalakshya). In line with the project, the structural
layout of proposed flyover and transport infrastructure development project does not intersect or
cross with any of the critically marked areas or zones (shown in Figure 15-1), so there will be no
impact no critical zones or protected areas.

Figure 15-1: Protected Area in and Around the Project Site

15.3.9.2 OPERATION STAGE
No impact is expected.

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15.3.10 BIOTA AND ECOSYSTEM
15.3.10.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE
There will be less impact on ecology as the most of the section of the proposed flyover route
alignment, observed from the satellite imagery by the consulting team member. The authority need
to conduct detail EIA study including Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) and Land Acquisition Plan
(LAP) to identify detail about this.
15.3.10.2 OPERATION PHASE
The authority need to conduct detail EIA study including Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) and Land
Acquisition Plan (LAP) to identify detail about this.
15.3.11 HYDROLOGY
15.3.11.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE
Due to the construction activities of the proposed flyover project there will some effects on hydrology:
qualitative changes of the ground water, changes on the vegetation, changes in the slope stability,
and changes in the hydrological balance at the basin scales. The major sources of impacts on
hydrology due to the construction activities of the proposed flyover projects are:
 Infilling,
 construction of the depot;
 construction yards and haul routes;
 Excavation

The drainage system will be hampered due to construction activities like as infilling, construction of
the depot, construction yards and haul routes. A major impact during construction stage is due to
suspended solids entrained in runoff that can soil surfaces and clog drainage system.

15.3.11.2 OPERATION STAGE

Dhaka city is flood prone area. Flooding may impact the operation of the proposed flyover especially
underground and boring activities. Historical flooding data analysis needs to be carried out during
the detail design stage for the safety.

15.3.12 GROUND WATER

15.3.12.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE
Underground construction may impact on ground water quality and depth of the underground water
level. Potential impacts on groundwater are insignificant. In Dhaka City, Ground Water extraction
started from a depth of 100m and in some extreme condition the well goes up to 300 meters to reach
the main aquifer and is unlikely to be affected by surface and activity related to construction of the
flyover.
15.3.12.2 OPERATION STAGE
Due to the flyover construction the ground water percolation might be interrupted. Detail hydrological
study need to be carried out during the detail design study. Impacts on groundwater could occur at
the depot during operations: herbicides used to control weed growth in the train yard could
potentially affect groundwater. Spills of hazardous chemicals, or uncontrolled drainage from
contaminated areas at the depot, could potentially affect groundwater quality.

An evaluation of planned types of herbicide and frequency of use should be conducted as part of
the depot operations plan, along with a risk analysis to determine the potential for groundwater
contamination. Operations procedures related to the handling of hazardous chemicals and drainage
from contaminated areas should be reviewed to highlight their safety and environmental aspects.

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15.3.13 TOPOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY
15.3.13.1 CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The project area has plain topography but excavation of land is involved for the construction of
flyover which may contribute to minor change of topography due to dumping/storage of the
excavated soil in the dumping site. The main impacts generating activities on topography during
construction activities will be cutting and dismantling of existing pavements, including erosion of
topsoil cover and soil erosion may occur on roadside due to excavation of earth/cutting operations.
Due to the construction of the elevated section will change the present topographic condition but it
will be negligible. Underground construction may lead to the land subsidence as well as building
collapse. Detail study is required during the detail design stage.
15.3.13.2 OPERATION STAGE
The flyover will be shielded so the risk of subsidence will be negligible.

15.3.14 INVOLUNTARY RESETTLEMENT

15.3.14.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION
The authority need to conduct detail EIA study including Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) and Land
Acquisition Plan (LAP) to identify detail about this.
15.3.14.2 OPERATION PHASE
All the PAPs will be resettled prior to start the construction therefore impact will be almost nil.

15.3.15 LOCAL ECONOMICS SUCH AS EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOOD

15.3.15.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The study team has identified that few people to be affected by losing their income for displacement
of commercial and business premises due to implementation of the proposed flyover. The authority
need to conduct detail EIA study including Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) and Land Acquisition
Plan (LAP) to identify detail about this.

15.3.15.2 OPERATION STAGE

Local economy will be gear up during the operation of the proposed flyover especially near the Kalshi
and Matikata area. It is expected that the new employment will be enhanced in all parts of proposed
study area significantly.

15.3.16 LAND USE AND UTILIZATION OF LOCAL RESOURCES

15.3.16.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION
The most of the acquired land is being used for commercial purpose and portion of it being used as
homestead. However and majority of the land area where the proposed flyover routes would pass
above and under the ground are owned by the government and mostly being used as road network
in the city. Along these routes and station area most of the project affected units are business and
commercial premises.

15.3.16.2 OPERATION STAGE

The proposed project including entire study area is going to be developed as central business district
(CBD). The implementation of proposed flyover will gear up the development of the surrounding
area as well as it will increase the land price. Additional utility services of the study area will be
provided by the government authority so the impact on local utility resources will less.

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15.3.17 SOCIAL SERVICE FACILITIES
15.3.17.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The project area and it’s influence area covers a significant portion DNCC area which includes
Matikata, Kalshi, pallabi and greater Mirpur area. Construction and Implementation of this project
will certainly involve local administrative such as City Corporation, cantonment and different local
interest group and public societies.
15.3.17.2 OPERATION STAGE
The proposed Kalshi flyover will be a major social service facility that will reduce the travel time and
enhance the economic growth of the people.

15.3.18 SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND LOCAL DECISION-MAKING

INSTITUTIONS
15.3.18.1 BEFORE/DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The society in Bangladesh in general is a traditional society. However, the city society has some
unique characteristics like any other city dwellers with diversified social back ground of the migrant
people coming from different areas of the country. Local level decisions some times are influenced
by the local elites and public representatives as well as other political leaders. Proper compensation
package and relocation should be taken for the affected structure prior to the start construction work
therefore the impact will minimum.
The authority need to conduct detail EIA study including Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) and Land
Acquisition Plan (LAP) to identify detail about this.

15.3.18.2 OPERATION PHASE

No negative impact is expected during the operation stage of the proposed flyover. People can move
their location easily using the flyover within short time.

15.3.19 MIS-DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS AND DAMAGES

15.3.19.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
The benefit of the flyover will not be distributed evenly to all the people along the line equally.
Certainly the people near the project area will be benefitted more. However, only the affected people
will have to bear the burden of damages like loss of assets and livelihood. It is speculated that the
economically solvent affected people will be able to recover their damages through receiving
compensation and utilizing the locational opportunity of the new infrastructure provided by the
project. But the vulnerable and marginal APs will have to struggle to recover their damages.
Therefore after getting the proper compensation and training opportunity as per the RAP the impact
need to be assessed by the project authority.

15.3.19.2 OPERATION STAGE

The proposed project area and it’s influence area will be developed faster compare to the other parts
of the city. Peoples will be more benefited who will live around by having efficient transportation
facilities with less travel time and congestion.

15.3.20 LOCAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

15.3.20.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
Due to employment opportunity will be increasing during construction; candidates of construction
workers may have some conflicts between communities.

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15.3.20.2 OPERATION STAGE
The proposed project area will be developed much faster than previous due to implementation of
the proposed flyover and large scale business will run that might be enhance the conflicts with other
areas.

15.3.21 WORKING CONDITION

15.3.21.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
During the construction stage, improper safety measure may lead to health problem to the worker.
Lack of proper sanitation facilities as well as accommodation facility in the labour camp also causes
health problem to the workers.
15.3.21.2 OPERATION STAGE
No impact is expected.

15.3.22 GLOBAL WARMING/CLIMATE CHANGE

15.3.22.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
Construction machines and vehicles generate greenhouse gases; quantities of generated gases do
not contribute for serious impact to the atmosphere.
15.3.22.2 OPERATION STAGE
During the operation stage, green house emission will be reduced as it will increase mobility speed
including reduction of travel time. It is assumed that the increase of traffic and residents will cause
the exhausted gas. However, it is expected that the modal shift and increase of travel speed will
mitigate the greenhouse gas.

15.3.23 ACCIDENT
15.3.23.1 BEFORE/ DURING CONSTRUCTION STAGE
There can be some sorts of accidents during construction as below:
 Construction requires works in elevated place such as work on the top of pier, girders and
so on and falling down is critical.
 Traffic accident during the carrying construction material using the existing road
 Heavy equipment’s can bring on various significant accidents.

15.3.23.2 OPERATION STAGE

Traffic accident will decrease because of the modal shift which will enhance the change overall
vehicular traffic network for the project area.

15.4 EVALUATION OF IMPACT

The impacts on the respective resources have been identified and assessed in the previous section.
In this section, the identified impacts have been evaluated based on the expert judgment. Several
round table discussion meeting with the team members and project authority (17ECB) have been
made to finalize the evaluation. A matrix based method has been adopted for this evaluation.
Evaluation has been made to indicate the magnitude of each impact. Each impact was evaluated
based on a rating instead of numeric scale. Impacts are rated in A, B, C and D. The definition of the
rating is as follows.
A: significant impact is assumed,
B: Impact is assumed but less than A,
C: Impact is not clear because the design is not finished and further survey is needed
to confirm,

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D: No impact
Thus, the scoping matrix of environmental impacts are expressed in the context of pollution, natural
and social environment and other points of view, which shown in Table 15-1.
Table 15-1: Scoping Matrix and Evaluation of Predicted Social and Environmental Impacts

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15.5 EXPECTED POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

15.5.1 IMPACTS ON LOCAL ECONOMIES
New employment will be generated due to construction and operation of the project. The project
would provide substantial direct employment; more people would be indirectly employed in allied
activities and trades. New business opportunity will be developed near the depot site that has
positive impact to the local economy and livelihoods.

Introduction of the proposed flyover with other transport improvement infrastructure will result in the
reduction in number of buses and private vehicles. This, in turn will result in significant social and

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economic benefits due to reduction of fuel consumption, vehicle operating cost and travel time of
passengers. With the development of the metro rail it is likely that more people will be involved in
trade, commerce and allied services.

15.5.2 LAND USE AND UTILIZATION OF LOCAL RESOURCES

Most of the alignment of the project will be constructed at underground so there will be very few
losses of the public land and other natural resources. So the land will be used for other development
activities.

15.5.3 GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

It is assumed that the increase of traffic and residents will cause the exhausted gas. However, it is
expected that the modal shift and increase of travel speed will mitigate the greenhouse gas
emission.

15.5.4 TRAFFIC CONGESTION REDUCTION

There will be reduction in road traffic due to operation of the proposed flyover and other transport
network infrastructure development project. The numbers of vehicles are increasing day by day at
Dhaka city. Traffic jam also increases with the increase of vehicles. People have great interest in
the metro rail project. After the completion of the project a large number of people shift from road
vehicle to proposed metro rail project. So traffic congestion will be reduced at the operation phase
of the project.

15.5.5 MOBILITY AND SAFETY

The Proposed development project will reduce the journey time of the passenger. The project will
also provide improved safety and lower number of accidental deaths and injuries of the passenger.

15.6 REQUIRED STUDIES FOR MITIGATING THE FUTURE IMPACTS

The potential future impacts identified through this study at preliminary level due to implementation
and construction of proposed flyover, are later evaluated by considering their nature, spatial and
temporal extent, reversibility and consequences. These analyses identify the scope of adopting
mitigation measures with the objective of preventing environmental pollution in compliance with ECA
1995. The following studies or measurements need to be undertaken by the project authority in order
limiting the possible adverse and negative impacts of the project implementation and to enhance
the positive impacts.

15.6.1 EIA STUDY ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN (EMP)

Formulation of a comprehensive EIA study with detail Environmental Management Plan (EMP) and
Environmental Monitoring Plan is required for limiting the negative impacts of the project activities
with the aim of sustainable implementation and operation of the project ensuring environmental and
community safety.

15.6.2 ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING PLAN

The implementing authority also need to formulate a environmental monitoring plan for regular
monitoring the performance and impact distribution of proposed project implementation and
construction works. Both the Contractor and the authority have to allocate separate budget for
environmental and social management plan implementation, training, environmental monitoring,
analysis and reporting, verification monitoring and capacity building. It should be noted that cost for
many in-built mitigation measures, such as, air pollution control measure, acoustic enclosures for

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noise control, water and water treatment etc. need to be included in the contract cost estimate and/or
operating cost estimates.

15.6.3 LAP AND RAP

The implementing authority (17 ECB) need to formulate detail involuntary “Resettlement Action Plan
(RAP) and Land Acquisition Plan (LAP)” by following the guidance of “The Immovable Property Act”
and “Land Acquisition Ordinance, 1982” for the entire route alignment of proposed flyover network
and other infrastructure development activities. After identification of project affected people (PAPs)
and Project affected properties, the authority need to compensate the affected entities or persons
by following the action plan of LAP and RAP.

15.6.4 EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN

"Emergency response plan and disaster impact assessment plan” are needed to be formulated by
the project implementing authority or the contractor as outcomes of the preparatory study or detail
design stage.

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CHAPTER-16
RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

16.1 GENERAL
This chapter discusses the summarized idea of entire study results including various aspects and
desired improvements, those will be required for the future success of proposed flyover from
Matikata roar or ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS via Kalshi. This chapter also verify the newly made
decision of extending flyover up to Mirpur DOHS, rather than landing all traffic in Kalshi intersection.

16.2 REASONS FOR EXTENDING FLYOVER UP TO MIRPUR DOHS

There are various factors, which play key role for determining the structural laThe authorityt plan of
any superstructure like proposed flyover from Matikata road to Mirpur DOHS. These factors can be
listed as with priority scale as follows-
a. Road connectivity pattern
b. Providing free expressway traffic without any interference.
c. Prohibition of right-turning traffic.
d. Improvement of vehicular movement and speed.

Back in 2016, when the first laThe authorityt plan for Flyover was drawn, it was extended from ECB
Chattar to Kalshi Intersection. But over the last 03 years urbanization trend including traffic flow
pattern has been increased way higher than, it was forecasted at 2016. Few mega development
projects such as execution of MRT Line -06, Apartment Building project at Uttara 3rd Phase and
induced urban growth of Mirpur DOHS area with other surroundings has increased more than 5
times in 2019 with respect to 2016. In addition, recent years has observed huge amount through
traffic in this region from Mirpur, Pallabi area to Banani Gulshan area. This happens because
Matikata raod provides east-west connectivity which is very rare in this region.

Turning right at the intersection point is the main reason for unbearable traffic congestion in Kalshi
intersection and Matikata road. With huge amount of through traffic and regional traffic, in peak
hours, the scenario goes worst. To prevent the right turning traffic and providing expressway route
without any signalization and interruption, the proposed flyover is very much useful. It will provide
free expressway from Matikata road up to Mirpur DOHS. The previous laThe authorityt plan of flyover
doesn’t eliminate all right turning traffic at Kalshi intersection, in addition it will create more traffic
conflicts at the foot of ramp of the proposed flyover. To eliminate these problems, 17 ECB has
revised the whole laThe authorityt plan and extended the proposed laThe authorityt up to Mirpur
DOHS. The main advantage of this revised laThe authorityt is avoidance of traffic conflict at Kalshi
intersection and Shagufta Moar. Moreover, it will eliminate all kinds of vehicular right turning in Kalshi
Intersection and Shagufta Moar. So it is expected the revised laThe authorityt plan of proposed
flyover will serve more its core objective free flow traffic rather than the previous one.

16.3 RECOMMENDED IMPROVEMENTS REQUIRMENT

The consulting team believe that construction of flyover only, will not be adequate for achieving
effective traffic system in the project area. In short term, only flyover may serve few purposes for a
limited extent. In order to achieve the long term goal with sustainability of proposed flyover additional
or substantial measures both physical and managerial, need to be undertaken and implemented.
The required future measures, in order to make the proposed flyover as an effective transport
superstructure as follows.

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16.3.1 DEVELOPMENT OF SERVICE ROADS
The proposed flyover aims to provide free flow traffic, catered from different road networks and
surrounding areas. The inter-connected service roads with proposed flyover alignment plays and
will play a great role for the success of whole project. If those service road suffers from heavy traffic
congestion, limited capacity and low level of mobility it will ultimately affects the vehicular traffic flow
on flyover also.

Here, the proposed flyover cannot be considered as a separate entity, rather it will be a part of whole
regional traffic system. All the interconnected collector roads and service roads will act as entry and
exit way for the proposed flyover. If these entry and exit ways are not operated properly with
additional capacity and service level it will certainly assert negative impacts on the flyover. As a
result the objective and goal of constructing flyover will remain undone.
Baunia- Jashimuddin Road and Balurghat road will be priority for capacity development, because it
is the prime exit and entry point to proposed flyover at Matikata Section. Existing carriageway width
is about 40.0 feet and it is need to be developed with 60.0 feet carriageway for providing effective
exit and entry point at Matikata section. The following Table 16-1 provides list of service roads, those
required to be developed (widening specially) and Figure 16-1 shows the geo-spatial extent of these
proposed service road extension activities.

Table 16-1: Proposed Service Road Capacity Development

Sl Road Name Existing Carriageway Proposed Carriageway
No. Width Width
1 Manikdi - Amtola Road 22.0 Feet 60 Feet
2 Baunia Jashiuddin Road 40.0 Feet 60 Feet
3 Balurghat - Mastertek road 20 Feet 60 Feet
4 Shagufta - Mastertek Connecting Road 20 Feet 60 Feet
5 Shagufta Main Road 23.0 Feet 60 Feet
6 Shagufta -Aziz Market Road 22.0 Feet 60 Feet
7 Kolabagan -Pukurpar Road 40 Feet 60 Feet
8 Balurghat Road 40 Feet 60 Feet

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Figure 16-1: Geospatial Extent of Service Road Widening (60 Feet) and Capacity
Development Proposals

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Figure 16-2: Proposed Road Alignment by DAP in the Study Area

16.3.2 BYPASS OR ROAD CURVE AT KALSHI

Close proximity of T-Junction at Kalshi Moar creates complexity and difficulties for heterogeneous
traffic management. Both T- Junction (T-1 and T-2) provides access of right turning of both motorized
and non-motorized vehicle. Apart from the future express way, provided by the proposed flyover,
several physical and non-physical developments regarding new driveway or diversion facilities with
traffic channelization features needed to be implemented in order to reduce the complexity of
heterogeneous traffic at both T-junction. These addition features can be illustrated as follows (for
details please see Figure 13-2).

A. At T- Junction -01
At T-Junction -01, existing roundabout facility, first need to be blocked or diminished in order to
channelize all sorts of traffic towards same direction. It will prevent possible traffic conflicts due to
right-turning. This is necessary because, it is anticipated that most of the public travel mode such
as bus, minibus, laguna, tempo etc. will use surface network instead of elevated expressway for
catering passengers. So if this blockade is not done, traffic scenario under the proposed flyover will
remain same.

B. At T- Junction -02
 At T-Junction -02, existing right turning access for traffic stream coming from Junction T-1
towards Pallabi Road need to be blocked first. Instead of this right turning, authority may
provide a U-turn facility on Baunia-Lalmatia road with a distance of at least 150-200 m
towards Lalmati from Junction T-2. It will channelize all right turning (purposed to Pallabi
Road) and straight traffic in a single stream. So there will not be any direct traffic conflict at
T-2 Junction.
 Another potential major source of traffic conflict at T-2 junction are the stream flows, from
Pallabi road towards Kalshi and from lalmati towards Kalshi. Existing Geometrical pattern
of this section is right angular shaped, so there is no way to prohibit these vehicular stream
conflicts unless having traffic signal or modified geometry in this section. This junction

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already has traffic signalized system, but it creates congestion and delay on both side of
traffic. In order eliminate this problem the authority need to a curved diversion or dedicated
bypass road for left turning traffic from Pallabi road to Kalshi. By maintaining proper lane
system, all possible direct flow conflicts between left turning traffic from Pallabi and straight
traffic from Lalmati can be avoided. It will provide free flow access for both way traffic without
any delay simultaneously and no signal system will be required.

New Curvature
Bypass or Diversion
Road Construction
T-1

Closing of Round
About
T-2

Closing All Right

Turning Access
Providing U-turn System
to Channelize Right
Turning and Straight
Going Traffic in Same
Stream

Figure 16-3: Proposed Vehicular Channelization in Both T-Junction of Kalshi.

16.3.3 CONSTRUCTION OF U-LOOPS AND BUS BAYS

The proposed traffic system, both vehicular and connectivity based, anticipated to be developed by
the execution of proposed flyover will increase both vehicular demand and efficiency in this region.
In above section, vehicular right turning is recommended to be banned by the consulting team. In
absence of direct right turning, the authority need to construct grade-separator based free flow
vehicular turning system. 17 ECB has already proposed 03 U-loops in different section for providing
turning access demand. In addition 02 bus-bays are also recommended in two different road section
in order to promote public traffic system.

16.3.4 TRAFFIC SEGREGATION AND MANAGEMENT

Differentiation and segregation of different types of traffic, with the hierarchical road system as a
main system solution, resulting in urban structures that are characteristic of the modernistic, car-
based city. Traffic segregation and proper management is highly desirable from the proposed flyover
implementing, executing and maintaining authority.

Traffic segregation provides separate vehicle and pedestrian doors wherever possible
(segregation). Windows on doors can help drivers and pedestrians see whether it is safe for them
to approach a door. If vehicles use routes inside buildings, use signs and markings on the floor to
tell both drivers and pedestrians.

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On routes used by both pedestrians and automatic (driverless) vehicles, make sure that vehicles do
not trap pedestrians. The vehicles should be fitted with safeguards to keep the risk of injury low if a
vehicle hits someone. Provide enough clearance between the vehicles and pedestrians, and take
care to make sure that fixtures along the route do not create trapping hazards. For effective traffic
segregation the authority may or must consider the followings-

16.3.4.1 PADESTRIAN FACILITY

Wherever it is reasonable to do so, authority should provide separate routes or pavements for
pedestrians to keep them away from vehicles. The most effective way to do this is to separate
pedestrian from vehicle activity, by making routes entirely separate. Where possible, pedestrian
traffic routes should represent the paths people would naturally follow (often known as ‘desire lines’),
to encourage people to stay on them.

16.3.4.2 FOOTBRIDGES AND SUBWAYS

Footbridges and subways are good examples of complete segregation. However, the authority need
to make sure that routes over traffic cannot dislodge high loads. The authority may also need to
consider access for disabled people.

16.3.4.3 LIMITED ACCESS

Pedestrians should be kept away from areas where vehicles are working unless they need to be
there. A good example of this is quarry working, where drivers are usually not allowed out of their
vehicles beyond a certain point to make sure they are safe where large surface mining vehicles are
operating.

16.3.4.4 BARRIERS AND MARKINGS

Effective ways to keep vehicles away from pedestrian areas include:
 protective barriers;
 clear markings to set apart vehicle and pedestrians routes; and
 raised kerbs to mark vehicle and pedestrian areas.
 Where needed, provide suitable barriers or guard rails:
 at entrances and exits to buildings;
 at the corners of buildings; and
 to prevent pedestrians from walking straight on to roads.

16.3.4.5 CROSSING POINTS

 Where pedestrian and vehicle routes cross, provide appropriate crossing points for people
to use. Pedestrians, cyclists and drivers should be able to see clearly in all directions.
Crossing points should be suitably marked and signposted, and should include dropped
kerbs where the walkway is raised from the driving surface.
 Where necessary, provide barriers or rails to prevent pedestrians from crossing at
dangerous points and to direct them to the crossing places. Similarly, the authority can use
deterrent paving to guide pedestrians to the crossing points.
 At busy crossing places, consider traffic lights, zebra crossings (or other types of crossing),
or suitable bridges or subways as a way of segregating pedestrians from moving vehicles.

16.3.4.6 PEDESTRIAN WARNING SIGN

The standard warning sign to show a pedestrian crossing is

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 It should be used in workplaces wherever appropriate. Find out more in Signs, signals and
markings
 Where vehicle roadways are particularly wide, the authority may need to consider 'island'
refuges to allow pedestrians and cyclists to cross the road in stages. In some cases,
subways or footbridges could be necessary.
 Where the number of vehicles, pedestrians or cyclists using a route is likely to change at
regular times, consider preventing pedestrians or vehicles from using the routes at these
times, to keep them apart. An example might be limiting the use of vehicles on a roadway
during a shift changeover, when many pedestrians are likely to be crossing.

16.4 CONCLUSION
The members of the consulting team, has identified the need and viability of the proposed flyover
from Matikata Road to Mirpur DOHS through this feasibility study. The team members has found
potential demand and valid reasons before recommending the construction of flyover. This flyover
will provide sufficient capacity and breathing space to handle existing peak hour traffic volume and
congestion. Again, the vehicular flow speed and accessibility will be certainly improved, as this
flyover will provide traffic segregation facilities for managing the existing traffic flow.

The proposed flyover will provide free way by connecting east and western part of northern Dhaka
city. In near future, the traffic flow in this will be multiplied by several times. So the proposed flyover
will be required to accommodate those future traffic in an effective way. At the end of this study, all
the study team members are strongly recommending the necessity and viability of proposed flyover,
which need to be developed in sustainable way to achieve it’s core goal and aims.

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References

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from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 180

March, 2019
Traffic Impact Assessment and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 181

March, 2019
Traffic Impact Assessment and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 182

March, 2019
Traffic Impact Assessment and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 183

March, 2019
Traffic Impact Assessment and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 184

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
ANNEXURES-01

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 1

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
ANNEX-01
TRAFFIC VOLUME SURVEY DATA

Banani Flyover to ECB Chattar

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Auto Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus rickshaw Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 16 833 142 1069 199 350.4 239.5 144 2993 3442 43869

2 8.30 -9.30 am 18 850.5 168 1080 212 353.6 242.5 172 3097 3561

3 9.30 -10.30 am 10 917 172 1095 221 366.4 248 220 3249 3737

4 10.30 -11.30 am 14 927.5 165 1061 235 345.6 255.5 260 3264 3753

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 6 840 153 1071 217 328.8 247.5 192 3055 3514

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 10 787.5 132 1091 201 308 243 144 2917 3354

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 12 735 101 1041 163 303.2 250.5 84 2690 3093

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 16 787.5 91 1040 48 302.4 261.5 48 2594 2984

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 2

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
9 3.30- 4.30 pm 10 763 78 1031 58 278.4 249.5 72 2540 2921

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 12 808.5 71 973 65 260 237.5 48 2475 2846

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 24 885.5 65 931 78 238.4 215.5 32 2469 2840

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 30 955.5 69 721 91 231.2 201 20 2319 2667

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 78 938 79 604 104 228.8 179 0 2211 2542

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 90 868 86 516 124 220 172.5 100 2177 2503

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 136 696.5 102 498 114 212 167.5 180 2106 2422

Total 482 12593 1674 13822 2130 4327 3411 1716 40155 46178

ECB Chattar to Banani Flyover

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 30 493.5 35 940 27 224.8 100.5 76 1927 2216 37505

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 3

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
2 8.30 -9.30 am 38 535.5 45 960 32 233.6 104 104 2052 2360

3 9.30 -10.30 am 26 591.5 38 975 40 259.2 114 112 2156 2479

4 10.30 -11.30 am 30 560 31 965 50 249.6 119.5 120 2125 2444

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 42 518 46 975 38 227.2 113 108 2067 2377

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 52 493.5 68 980 31 193.6 107 100 2025 2329

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 46 451.5 75 982 23 168.8 101.5 88 1936 2226

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 40 476 131 984 24 156 96 76 1983 2280

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 36 507.5 102 935 19 190.4 110.5 84 1984 2282

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 48 588 91 1070 25 216.8 116 88 2243 2579

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 68 661.5 85 1120 29 238.4 127.5 96 2425 2789

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 84 738.5 81 1240 31 248.8 140 108 2671 3072

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 98 861 83 1315 51 252 154 156 2970 3416

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 118 906.5 95 1370 58 231.2 169 168 3116 3583

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 102 822.5 101 1050 42 215.2 160.5 156 2649 3047

Total 858 9205 1107 15861 520 3306 1833 1640 34330 39479

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 4

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
ECB Chattar to Kalshi Moar

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 196 577.5 121 1212 65 248 155.5 20 2595 2984 35606

2 8.30 -9.30 am 16 616 131 1300 74 277.6 164.5 36 2615 3007

3 9.30 -10.30 am 10 668.5 142 1417 71 302.4 179 8 2798 3218

4 10.30 -11.30 am 8 728 154 1544 52 329.6 195 12 3023 3476

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 4 661.5 140 1241 35 299.2 177 8 2566 2951

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 6 598.5 120 1129 26 272.8 161 12 2325 2674

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 10 542.5 109 191 18 248 146.5 20 1285 1478

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 0 329 99 812 15 225.6 133 12 1626 1869

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 2 297.5 90 738 12 204.8 121 16 1481 1703

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 4 322 98 804 35 223.2 131.5 8 1626 1870

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 5

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
11 5.30 -6.30 pm 6 462 81 940 41 243.2 143 24 1940 2231

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 4 500.5 85 1024 59 264.8 155.5 32 2125 2444

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 0 616 79 1134 61 276.8 191.5 40 2398 2758

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 16 560 71 1031 52 251.2 171.5 36 2189 2517

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 96 423.5 64 985 35 219.2 145.5 32 2000 2300

Total 378 7903 1584 15502 651 3886 2371 316 32591 37480

Kalshi Moar to ECB Chattar

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 4 738.5 66 750 23 164 76 8 1830 2104 32952

2 8.30 -9.30 am 6 801.5 85 792 25 176 81.5 32 1999 2299

3 9.30 -10.30 am 6 640.5 92 863 27 191.2 88.5 20 1928 2217

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 6

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
4 10.30 -11.30 am 4 696.5 101 940 29 208 96 0 2075 2386

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 2 633.5 91 855 26 191.2 87 12 1898 2182

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 4 574 81 778 23 173.6 79 8 1721 1979

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 2 521.5 73 707 20 157.6 71.5 12 1565 1799

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 4 434 140 643 15 220.8 65 0 1522 1750

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 4 392 127 712 13 200.8 59 4 1512 1739

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 10 427 138 914 14 218.4 64 20 1805 2076

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 8 462 150 996 15 249.6 69.5 28 1978 2275

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 6 500.5 163 1080 16 272 75.5 60 2173 2499

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 104 882 275 1172 17 353.6 82 68 2954 3397

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 144 801.5 250 1066 15 320.8 74.5 28 2700 3105

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 248 661.5 227 970 13 264.8 60.5 60 2505 2881

Total 556 9167 2059 13238 291 3362 1130 360 30162 34687

Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar to Pallabi

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 7

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 30 738.5 45 348 5 312.8 147.5 8 1635 1880 26863

2 8.30 -9.30 am 16 833 53 383 7 333.6 149.5 0 1775 2041

3 9.30 -10.30 am 10 906.5 57 417 9 363.2 162.5 12 1937 2228

4 10.30 -11.30 am 6 987 62 454 11 395.2 177 20 2112 2429

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 4 896 56 412 6 359.2 161 8 1902 2188

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 2 812 50 374 5 326.4 110.5 4 1684 1936

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 22 738.5 45 340 12 296.8 100.5 0 1555 1788

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 12 654.5 40 309 22 157.6 73 0 1268 1458

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 10 595 36 281 18 143.2 66 8 1157 1331

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 8 647.5 39 306 19 171.2 71.5 12 1274 1465

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 4 703.5 42 333 23 186.4 77.5 8 1377 1584

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 4 766.5 45 362 25 256.8 132.5 20 1612 1854

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 24 819 81 485 29 305.6 166 24 1934 2224

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 58 682.5 73 441 21 277.6 151 32 1736 1997

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 76 619.5 66 385 17 304.8 125.5 36 1630 1874

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 8

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
Total 286 11400 790 5630 229 4190 1872 192 24588 28277

Pallabi to Kalshi K.I.H.S Moar

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 32 343 46 298 58 151.2 75.5 8 1012 1163 18082

2 8.30 -9.30 am 12 371 54 320 68 160 81 0 1066 1226

3 9.30 -10.30 am 8 402.5 58 353 74 174.4 87.5 12 1169 1345

4 10.30 -11.30 am 6 437.5 63 384 80 189.6 95 16 1271 1462

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 4 395.5 57 349 72 172 86 20 1156 1329

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 2 357 51 317 65 156 78 8 1034 1189

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 6 322 38 288 59 141.6 70.5 12 937 1078

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 8 290.5 28 262 53 128.8 64 4 838 964

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 9

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
9 3.30- 4.30 pm 6 262.5 25 231 48 116.8 58 20 767 882

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 4 283.5 27 251 52 127.2 63 24 832 956

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 12 308 29 371 65 138.4 68.5 32 1024 1177

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 8 332.5 68 404 70 150.4 74.5 64 1171 1347

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 66 542.5 85 510 72 153.6 100.5 120 1650 1897

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 86 360.5 77 465 65 139.2 91 84 1368 1573

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 150 325.5 70 381 59 126.4 72.5 72 1256 1445

Total 410 5334 776 5184 960 2226 1166 496 16551 19034

Kalshi Moar to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 24 493.5 35 940 21 32.8 47.5 20 1614 1856 31595

2 8.30 -9.30 am 4 535.5 45 960 25 38.4 51.5 76 1735 1996

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 10

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
3 9.30 -10.30 am 6 591.5 38 975 28 41.6 56 36 1772 2038

4 10.30 -11.30 am 4 560 31 965 31 44.8 61 0 1697 1951

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 4 518 46 975 23 40.8 55.5 8 1670 1921

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 2 493.5 68 980 18 36.8 50.5 12 1661 1910

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 4 451.5 75 982 15 47.2 45.5 20 1640 1886

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 6 476 131 984 12 54.4 69.5 16 1749 2011

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 10 507.5 102 935 15 48.8 63 24 1705 1961

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 2 588 91 1070 17 52.8 68.5 32 1921 2209

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 4 661.5 85 1120 19 56.8 74.5 48 2069 2379

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 6 738.5 81 1240 21 63.2 81 64 2295 2639

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 10 861 83 1315 22 68.8 88 68 2516 2893

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 12 906.5 95 1370 26 59.2 80 76 2625 3018

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 56 822.5 101 1050 19 53.6 65 84 2251 2589

Total 154 9205 1107 15861 312 740 957 584 28920 33258

ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Kalshi Moar

Calcculated PCU

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 11

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 14 773.5 132 1071 201 350.4 239.5 144 2925 3364 43576

2 8.30 -9.30 am 16 822.5 165 1081 212 353.6 242.5 172 3065 3524

3 9.30 -10.30 am 10 913.5 171 1092 222 366.4 248 220 3243 3729

4 10.30 -11.30 am 14 924 165 1061 234 345.6 255.5 260 3259 3748

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 6 840 153 1070 217 328.8 247.5 192 3054 3512

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 10 787.5 130 1090 201 308 243 144 2914 3351

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 12 735 100 1041 162 303.2 250.5 84 2688 3091

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 16 777 91 1040 45 302.4 261.5 48 2581 2968

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 10 763 78 1033 5 278.4 249.5 72 2489 2862

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 12 808.5 72 970 64 260 237.5 48 2472 2843

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 22 878.5 59 931 77 238.4 215.5 32 2453 2821

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 30 948.5 69 719 90 231.2 201 20 2309 2655

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 58 938 81 601 103 228.8 179 0 2189 2517

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 12

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
14 8.30 -9.30 pm 82 878.5 86 512 121 220 172.5 100 2172 2498

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 116 696.5 101 497 104 212 167.5 180 2074 2385

Total 428 12485 1653 13809 2058 4327 3411 1716 39886 45869

ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur 12

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 4 28 2 125 2 3.2 4 20 188 216 6185

2 8.30 -9.30 am 6 24.5 3 130 3 4 5.5 24 200 230

3 9.30 -10.30 am 4 31.5 5 141 5 4.8 6 20 217 250

4 10.30 -11.30 am 6 52.5 9 153 6 5.6 6.5 8 247 284

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 8 45.5 7 168 2 4.8 5.5 4 245 282

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 4 38.5 5 152 1 4 5 20 230 264

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 13

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
7 1.30 -2.30 pm 24 52.5 4 135 0 6.4 1.5 8 231 266

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 28 63 13 122 3 15.2 13.5 0 258 296

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 32 56 12 111 2 12 12 8 245 282

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 20 122.5 14 120 1 11.2 13 32 334 384

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 18 206.5 16 130 2 20.8 14 36 443 510

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 16 238 18 141 4 30.4 15 48 510 587

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 64 399 20 153 5 38.4 39 100 818 941

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 76 311.5 28 139 6 30.4 32.5 140 763 878

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 130 248.5 31 126 4 24 12.5 156 732 842

Total 440 1918 187 2046 46 215 186 624 5662 6511

Mirpur 12 to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 16 423.5 6 368 1 38.4 94.5 0 947 1090 16034

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 14

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
2 8.30 -9.30 am 6 462 5 378 0 43.2 103 12 1009 1161

3 9.30 -10.30 am 4 500.5 4 412 2 46.4 112 8 1089 1252

4 10.30 -11.30 am 6 542.5 6 449 1 50.4 122 8 1185 1363

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 4 493.5 5 408 2 45.6 111 0 1069 1229

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 2 448 2 371 3 40.8 101 4 972 1118

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 24 406 3 301 2 36.8 91.5 4 868 999

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 36 367.5 12 266 3 32.8 150 0 867 997

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 32 332.5 10 242 1 29.6 136.5 8 792 910

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 24 360.5 11 263 0 32 148.5 8 847 974

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 32 392 15 283 1 34.4 161.5 4 923 1061

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 30 427 16 308 2 36.8 162.5 0 982 1130

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 28 462 18 348 1 40.8 176 32 1106 1272

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 58 420 20 316 2 36.8 160 44 1057 1215

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 86 381.5 29 278 3 32.8 105 48 963 1108

Total 388 6419 162 4991 24 578 1935 180 14677 16878

ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar to Mirpur DOHS Gate-01

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 15

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 26 154 32 435 22 32.8 47.5 0 749 862 14615

2 8.30 -9.30 am 30 164.5 38 483 32 38.4 51.5 40 877 1009

3 9.30 -10.30 am 32 178.5 41 526 34 41.6 56 0 909 1045

4 10.30 -11.30 am 34 192.5 44 573 37 44.8 61 0 986 1134

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 30 175 40 521 33 40.8 55.5 0 895 1030

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 26 157.5 36 475 20 36.8 50.5 0 802 922

7 1.30 -2.30 pm 22 140 32 432 18 47.2 45.5 0 737 847

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 44 126 45 495 16 54.4 69.5 0 850 977

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 40 112 40 450 14 48.8 63 0 768 883

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 42 122.5 43 490 15 52.8 68.5 0 834 959

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 46 133 46 534 16 56.8 74.5 0 906 1042

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 50 143.5 50 582 18 63.2 81 0 988 1136

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 16

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
13 7.30 -8.30 pm 54 154 65 659 19 68.8 88 84 1192 1371

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 48 140 51 599 17 59.2 80 0 994 1143

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 40 126 46 545 15 53.6 65 0 891 1024

Total 564 2219 649 7799 326 740 957 124 13378 15385

Mirpur DOHS Gate-01 to ECB Canteen / Shagufta Moar

Calcculated PCU

SL. No Time Truck Large Pickup Car Laguna/Tampu/Duranto CNG/ Moto Trailor/ ADT Adjusted AADT
Bus/Mini Autorickshaw Cycle Transsit (13.0 ADT (24.0
Bus Mixture/ Hours) Hours)
Water/
Oil Lorry

1 7.30 -8.30 am 20 56 3 1230 2 56.8 31 20 1419 1632 20729

2 8.30 -9.30 am 24 63 7 1340 6 62.4 34.5 24 1561 1795

3 9.30 -10.30 am 26 66.5 8 1460 5 68 37.5 24 1695 1949

4 10.30 -11.30 am 28 73.5 9 1387 4 73.6 41 20 1636 1882

5 11.30 am -12.30 pm 24 63 10 1262 3 66.4 37 16 1481 1704

6 12.30 -1.30 pm 16 56 8 1375 2 60 33.5 20 1571 1806

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 17

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
7 1.30 -2.30 pm 12 49 7 1251 2 54.4 30 20 1425 1639

8 2.30 -3.30 pm 18 42 6 1138 2 48.8 27 32 1314 1511

9 3.30- 4.30 pm 22 35 5 1035 1 44 24.5 28 1195 1374

10 4.30 -5.30 pm 28 38.5 7 941 1 47.2 26.5 24 1113 1280

11 5.30 -6.30 pm 38 42 8 856 2 52.8 28.5 20 1047 1204

12 6.30 -7.30 pm 46 45.5 9 778 3 59.2 31.5 8 980 1127

13 7.30 -8.30 pm 54 52.5 11 707 3 64.8 34.5 0 927 1066

14 8.30 -9.30 pm 58 45.5 10 643 2 58.4 31.5 4 852 980

15 9.30 -10.30 pm 44 38.5 7 585 1 53.6 28.5 0 758 871

Total 458 767 115 15988 39 870 477 260 18974 21820

APARAJITA Design Development Ltd. Page | 18

March, 2019
Traffic Modeling and Feasibility Study of Proposed Kalshi Flyover

17 ECB
REPORT
from ECB Chattar to Mirpur DOHS, Dhaka.

FINAL
ANNEX-02
TRAFFIC INTERSECTION SURVEY DATA

2.1 ECB CHATTAR INTERSECTION

Full Intersection Traffic Volume Based Scenario Qeue Volume Based Traffic Flow Distribution
Left
Total Percentage of Opposite Volume on Straight
Road Total Qeue Percentage Turning Percentage of Percentage Right Turning Percentage of
Sl No Intersection Entry Traffic Road Opposite Moving Traffic
Segment or Volume ( Veh / Exit Traffic Traffic Left Turning ofStraight Moving Traffic Volume Right Turning
Volume ( Veh Volume of Qeue Segment Segment (Veh Volume (Veh /
Qeue Name hr) Volume (%) Volume Traffic (%) Traffic (%) (Veh / hr) Traffic (%)
/ hr) (%) Name /hr) hr)
(Veh / hr)
Kalshi Moar ECB Chattar
1 to ECB 5673 2622 46.21% to Kalshi 2288 40.33% 0 0.00% 98 3.74% 2524 96.27%
Chattar Moar
Mirpur ECB Chattar
2 Flyover to 5673 2784 49.07% to Mirpur 3166 55.80% 2208 79.30% 0 0.00% 576 20.70%
ECB Chattar Flyover
Manikdi To ECB Chattar
3 5673 268 4.72% 219 3.86% 191 71.48% 60 22.29% 17 6.23%
ECB Chattar to Manikdi

2.2 KALSHI MOAR INTERSECTION

Full Intersection Traffic Volume Based Scenario Qeue Volume Based Traffic Flow Distribution
Straight Percenta Right Percenta
Total Volume on Left Turning Moving ge Turning ge of
Percentage of Entry Percentage Percentage of
Sl No Road Segment or Intersection Total Qeue Volume Opposite Road Opposite Traffic Traffic ofStraigh Traffic Right
Traffic Volume of Exit Traffic Left Turning
Qeue Name Volume ( Veh / ( Veh / hr) Segment Name Segment Volume (Veh Volume t Moving Volume Turning
Qeue (%) Volume (%) Traffic (%)
hr) (Veh /hr) / hr) (Veh / Traffic (Veh / Traffic
hr) (%) hr) (%)
ECB Chattar to Kalshi kalshi Moar to
1 4829 2128 44.08% 2407 49.86% 1308 61.46% 0 0.00% 820 38.54%
Moar ECB Chattar
DOHS Chattar To Kalshi to DOHS
2 4829 1570 32.52% 980 20.29% 1364 86.88% 132 8.41% 74 4.71%
Kalshi Chattar
Kalshi Moar to
3 Lalmati to Kalshi Moar 4829 1130 23.40% 1442 29.86% 0 0.00% 95 8.41% 1035 91.59%
Lalmati

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FINAL
2.3 KALSHI MOAR (K.I.H.S-PALLABI) INTERSECTION
Full Intersection Traffic Volume Based Scenario Qeue Volume Based Traffic Flow Distribution
Right
Percenta Straight
Percentage of Volume on Left Turning Turning
Total Intersection Total Qeue ge of Left Moving Percentage Percentage of
Sl No Road Segment Entry Traffic Opposite Road Opposite Percentage Exit Traffic Traffic Traffic
Volume ( Veh / Volume ( Turning Traffic ofStraight Moving Right Turning
or Qeue Name Volume of Qeue Segment Name Segment (Veh Volume (%) Volume (Veh Volume
hr) Veh / hr) Traffic Volume (Veh Traffic (%) Traffic (%)
(%) /hr) / hr) (Veh /
(%) / hr)
hr)
Kalshi Moar to Islamia High
1 Islamia High 2713 1646 60.66% School to Kalshi 1110 40.90% 0 0.00% 179 10.87% 1467 89.13%
School Moar
Lalmati to Islamia High
2 Islamia high 2713 253 9.34% School to 221 8.14% 51 20.26% 202 79.74% 0 0.00%
School Lalmati
Pallabi to Islamia High
3 Islamia High 2713 1009 37.20% School to 1383 50.96% 901 89.27% 0 0.00% 108 10.73%
School Pallabi

2.4 SHAGUFTA MOAR OR DOHS CHATTAR INTERSECTION

Full Intersection Traffic Volume Based Scenario Qeue Volume Based Traffic Flow Distribution
Left Straight Right
Total Percentage of Volume on Percentag Percentage Percentag
Total Qeue Percentage Turning Moving Turning
Sl No Road Segment or Intersection Entry Traffic Opposite Road Opposite e of Left ofStraight e of Right
Volume ( Exit Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic
Qeue Name Volume ( Volume of Segment Name Segment Turning Moving Turning
Veh / hr) Volume (%) Volume Volume Volume
Veh / hr) Qeue (%) (Veh /hr) Traffic (%) Traffic (%) Traffic (%)
(Veh / hr) (Veh / hr) (Veh / hr)
Mirpur DOHS to DOHS Chattar to
1 2609 833 31.94% 750 28.75% 13 1.56% 781 93.72% 39 4.72%
DOHS Chattar Mirpur DOHS
Ceramic Road to DOHS Chattar to
2 2609 811 31.10% 312 11.95% 135 16.64% 18 2.18% 659 81.18%
DOHS Chattar Ceramic Road
Shagufta to DOHS DOHS Chattar to
3 2609 64 2.45% 42 1.60% 36 55.73% 17 26.56% 11 17.71%
Chattar Shagufta
Kalshi Moar to DOHS Chattar to
4 2609 900 34.50% 1505 57.71% 262 29.15% 593 65.89% 45 4.96%
DOHS Chattar Kalshi Moar

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17
ANNEX-03
SPEED SURVEY AND DELAY SURVEY DATA

3.1 SPEED SURVEY FROM KALSHI MOAR TO DOHS CHATTAR

SPEED SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to DOHS Date:

Direction Time Duration

Delay Overtaking Opposite
Overtake
Starting Ending (Sec) By Direction
(Minutes)

A B 9:34 AM 9:39 AM 5.0 8.0 0.0 15.0 400

B A 9:40 AM 9:44 AM 4.0 23.0 0.0 8.0 300

A B 9:45 AM 9:49 AM 4.0 56.0 2.0 17.0 340

B A 9:50 AM 9:54 AM 4.0 34.0 1.0 10.0 310

A B 9:54 AM 9:58 AM 4 5 0 13 208

B A 9:59 AM 10:03 AM 4 20 1 16 260

A B 10:03 AM 10:07 AM 4 5 1 7 234

B A 10:07 AM 10:11 AM 4 56 2 18 240

A B 10:11 AM 10:15 AM 4 2 3 14 260

B A 10:21 AM 10:25 AM 4 35 2 18 196

A B 10:25 AM 10:29 AM 4 60 0 20 300

B A 10:30 AM 10:34 AM 4 55 2 10 192

Direction Time Duration

Delay Overtaking Opposite
Overtake
Starting Ending (Sec) By Direction
(Minutes)
A B 2:36 PM 2:41 PM 5 15 2 38 141

B A 2:41 PM 2:45 PM 4 21 1 18 142

A B 2:45 PM 2:49 PM 4 0 1 12 97

B A 2:49 PM 2:53 PM 4 0 2 10 167

A B 2:53 PM 2:57 PM 4 15 2 15 190

B A 2:57 PM 3:01 PM 4 10 2 20 209

A B 3:05 PM 3:09 PM 4 20 2 18 117

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17
B A 3:11 PM 3:15 PM 4 5 1 17 250

A B 3:15 PM 3:20 PM 5 20 2 24 198

B A 3:20 PM 3:24 PM 4 15 1 18 168

A B 3:24 PM 3:28 PM 4 2 2 26 189

B A 3:28 PM 3:34 PM 6 26 1 18 206

Direction Time Duration

Delay Overtaking Opposite
Overtake
(Sec) By Direction
Starting Ending (Minutes)

4 9 0 8 312
A B 6:49 PM 6:53 PM
A B 4 5 1 15 320
6:54 PM 6:58 PM
B A 4 8 2 10 352
6:58 PM 7:02 PM
A B 4 9 1 10 190
7:02 PM 7:06 PM
B A 4 18 5 16 460
7:06 PM 7:10 PM
A B 4 5 2 8 354
7:10 PM 7:14 PM
B A 3 0 3 9 380
7:15 PM 7:18 PM
A B 3 3 2 5 414
7:18 PM 7:21 PM
B A 4 2 2 12 466
7:21 PM 7:25 PM
A B 7 90 3 18 512
7:25 PM 7:32 PM
B A 4 10 1 26 234
7:32 PM 7:36 PM
A B 4 5 5 30 264
7:36 PM 7:40 PM
B A 4 10 2 35 380
7:41 PM 7:45 PM
A B 4 20 3 20 470
7:45 PM 7:49 PM

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17
3.2 SPEED SURVEY FROM KALSHI MOAR TO ECB CHATTAR

Direction Time
Starting Ending Duration
Delay Overtaking Opposite
(Minutes) (Sec) Overtake By Direction
A B 9:30 AM 9:38 8 13 7 29 845
AM

B A 9:40 AM 9:49 9 3 15 27 789

AM
A B 9:50 AM 9:55 5 4 13 33 890
AM

B A 9:56 AM 10:05 9 16 32 23 650

AM

A B 10:06 AM 10:05 9 0 4 9 820

AM
B A 10:29 AM 10:42 13 5 5 15 610
AM

A B 1043:00 10:47 4 0 3 12 760

AM AM

B A 10:47 AM 11:03 16 8 12 37 723

AM

Direction Time Duration Delay Overtake Overtaking Opposite

(Sec) By Direction
Starting Ending (Minutes)
A B 2:40 PM 2:43 3 0 8 6 430
PM
B A 2:44 PM 2:47 3 49 13 4 387
PM
A B 2:47 PM 2:51 4 2 8 1 520
PM
B A 2:52 PM 2:56 4 12 13 2 630
PM
A B 2:56 PM 3:00 4 0 6 1 439
PM

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17
B A 3:00 PM 3:04 4 42 13 0 419
PM
A B 3:05 PM 3:09 4 0 16 4 350
PM
B A 3:10 PM 3:14 4 45 9 8 534
PM
A B 3:15 PM 3:18 3 0 5 5 567
PM
B A 3:27 PM 3:31 4 3 12 4 497
PM

Direction Time Duration Delay Overtake Overtaking Opposite

(Sec) By Direction
(Minutes)

Starting Ending

A B 7:00 PM 7:09 4 9 0 8 785

PM
A B 7:10 PM 7:14 4 0 5 2 980
PM

B A 7:14 PM 7:24 10 3 21 58 867

PM

A B 7:24 PM 7:28 4 11 18 5 1345

PM
B A 7:29 PM 7:39 11 6 30 83 767
PM

A B 7:41 PM 7:47 6 0 5 5 1324

PM

B A 7:46 PM 7:57 11 5 43 81 567

PM
A B 7:58 PM 8:03 4 18 3 8 1128
PM
B A 8:04 PM 8:18 12 7 36 93 856
PM

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17
3.3 DELAY SURVEY DATA

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 DELAY SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to DOHS Chattar Date:20.2.2019

Time
Traffic Qeue Count
Point
Starting Ending (Stopped at Signal)

B 8:50:AM 8:54:AM 112

8:56:AM 9:00:AM
162

9:03:AM 9:05:AM 186

9:08:AM 9:10:AM 92

9:12:AM 9:14:AM
138

9:18:AM 9:19:AM
281

9:50:AM 9:55:AM
230

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 2:18:PM 2:21:PM 72

2:22PM 2:23PM 144

2:30PM 2:31PM 56

2:33PM 2:34PM 90

2:58PM 3:05PM 247

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 7:00:PM 7:10:PM 310

7:33PM 7:35PM 150

7:52PM 7:54PM 280

7:59PM 8:10PM 155

 DELAY SURVEY
Location : DOHS Chattar Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

C 8:50:AM 8:54:AM 76

8:56:AM 9:00:AM
70

9:03:AM 9:05:AM 90

9:08:AM 9:10:AM 89

9:12:AM 9:14:AM
66

9:18:AM 9:19:AM
45

9:50:AM 9:55:AM
90

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 2:15:PM 2:16:PM 12

2:20PM 2:23PM 56

2:27PM 2:29PM 18

2:34PM 2:35PM 24

2:43PM 2:45PM 26

2:59PM 3:00PM 38

3:05PM 3:06PM 22

3:14PM 3:15PM 45

Time
Point Traffic Count
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 6:50:PM 6:51:PM 120

6:53PM 6:54PM 155

6:56PM 6:57PM 256

7:04PM 7:05PM 178

7:08PM 7:09PM 171

7:12PM 7:12PM 126
7:16PM 7:17PM 167
7:21PM 7:21PM 128
7:24PM 7:25PM 140
7:27PM 7:28PM 300
7:31PM 7:32PM 283
7:39PM 7:43PM 265
 DELAY SURVEY
Location : DOHS Chattar Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

D 9:00:AM 9:01:AM 8

9:30:AM 9:31:AM
13

9:51:AM 9:52:AM 23

10: 000AM 10:02:AM 24

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 2:15:PM 2:16:PM 4

2:20PM 2:23PM 8

2:27PM 2:29PM 23

2:34PM 2:35PM 22

2:43PM 2:45PM 9

2:59PM 3:00PM 8

3:05PM 3:06PM 12

3:14PM 3:15PM

Time
Point Traffic Count
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 7:02:PM 7:03:PM 20

7:08PM 7:10PM 12

7:15PM 7:16PM 6
7:20PM 7:22PM 14
7:27PM 7:29PM 10
7:35PM 7:36PM 4
7:47PM 7:48PM 4
 DELAY SURVEY
Location : ECB Chattar Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 9:00:AM 9:05:AM 200

9:18:AM 9:22:AM 212

9:30:AM 9:33:AM
252

9:41:AM 9:44:AM 290

9:48:AM 9:50:AM 293

10: 000AM 10:02:AM 206

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 2:40:PM 2:45:PM 110

2:45:PM 2:47:PM 90

2:47:PM 2:48:PM 56

2:50PM 2:53PM 70

2:55PM 2:56PM 60

3:00PM 3:03PM 46

3:08PM 3:09PM 86

3:14PM 3:15PM 56
 3:16PM 3:18PM 166

3:20PM 3:23PM 108

3:25PM 3:27PM 176

3:29PM 3:30PM 66

3:33PM 3:34PM 102

3:35PM 3:37PM 46

3:39PM 3:40PM 80

3:43PM 3:45PM 96

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 7:00:PM 7:01:PM 150

7:03PM 7:04PM 50

7:07PM 7:08PM 82

7:09PM 7:10PM 138

7:12PM 7:14PM 196

7:17PM 7:18PM 157
7:23PM 7:24PM 164
7:29PM 7:30PM 133
7:33PM 7:36PM 140
7:38PM 7:39PM 84
7:42PM 7:43PM 120
7:44PM 7:45PM 110
7:46PM 7:47PM 78
7:49PM 7:50PM 86
7:51PM 7:52PM
66
7:54PM 7:56PM
94
7:58PM 7:59PM
138
7:59PM 8:00PM
153
 DELAY SURVEY
Location : ECB Chattar Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 9:00:AM 9:03:AM 207

9:19:AM 9:21:AM 229

9:29:AM 9:31:AM
256

9:40:AM 9:42:AM 220

9:49:AM 9:54:AM 259

9: 58AM 10:03:AM 183

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

B 2:44:PM 2:46:PM 65

2:50PM 2:55PM 140

2:56PM 2:58PM 81

3:00PM 3:01PM 45

3:10PM 3:14PM 85

3:19PM 3:21PM 66

3:21PM 3:22PM 19

3:24PM 3:32PM 107

3:32PM 3:34PM 45

3:35PM 3:38PM 70
 3:39PM 3:44PM 150

3:48PM 3:49PM 77

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

B 7:00:PM 7:03:PM 180

7:08PM 7:10PM 223

7:17PM 7:25PM 394

7:37PM 7:42PM 343
7:45PM 7:46PM 217
7:59PM 8:01PM 216
 DELAY SURVEY
Location : ECB Chattar Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

C 9:00:AM 9:01:AM 23

9:30:AM 9:31:AM
12

9:51:AM 9:52:AM 16

10: 000AM 10:02:AM 3

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

C 2:40:PM 2:43:PM 8

C 2:50:PM 3:00:PM 8

3:08PM 3:10PM 6

3:27PM 3:29PM 8

3:40PM 3:42PM 1

3:43PM 3:44PM 5
 Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

C 7:00:PM 7:04:PM 10

7:08PM 7:10PM 7

7:12PM 7:15PM 6

7:22PM 7:23PM 8

7:28PM 7:29PM 5

7:32PM 7:33PM 4

7:47PM 7:48PM 12

7:55PM 7:58PM 16
 DELAY SURVEY
Location : Pallabi to Kalshi Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 8:56:AM 8:58:AM 120

9:00:AM 9:06:AM
153
9:08:AM 9:11:AM 144

9:13:AM 9:15:AM 191

9:19:AM 9:21:AM
177
9:24:AM 9:25:AM
223
9:29:AM 9:32:AM
150
9:33:AM 9:34:AM
132
9:36:AM 9:37:AM
163
9:38:AM 9:39:AM 134

9:41:AM 9:42:AM 123

9:43:AM 9:44:AM 129

9:45:AM 9:46:AM 115

9:47:AM 9:49:AM 123

9:50:AM 9:52:AM 139

9:53:AM 9:54:AM 127

9:55:AM 9:57:AM 151

9:59:AM 10:01:AM 113

10:02:AM 10:03:AM 132

10:04:AM 10:05:AM 158

10;07:AM 10:10:AM 140

DELAY SURVEY
Location : Pallabi to Kalshi Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 2:26:PM 2:27:PM 87

2:28:PM 2:29:PM 70

2:30:PM 2:32:PM 56

2:33:PM 2:34:PM 89

2:35:PM 2:36:PM 90

2:37:PM 2:38:PM 120

2:39:PM 2:40:PM 130

2:41:PM 2:42:PM 130

2:43:PM 2:45:PM 125

2:47:PM 2:48:PM 116

2:49:PM 2:50:PM 201

2:51:PM 2:53:PM 128

2:55:PM 2:56:PM 117

2:57:PM 2:58:PM 124

3:01:PM 3:02:PM 80

3:03:PM 3:04:PM 86

3:10:PM 3:11:PM 90

3:12:PM 3:13:PM 160

3:16:PM 3:17:PM 89

3:18:PM 3:19:PM 45

3:21:PM 3:22:PM 118

DELAY SURVEY
Location : Pallabi to Kalshi Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

A 6:50:PM 6:51:PM 150

6:52:PM 6:54:PM 115

6:55:PM 6:59:PM 128

7:00:PM 7:02:PM 122

7:03:PM 7:04:PM
16
7:05:PM 07:06:PM
12
7:07:PM 7:08:PM
17
7:09:PM 7:10:PM
14
7:11:PM 7:12:PM
18
07:12:PM 7:14:PM
13
7:15:PM 7:16:PM
19
7:17:PM 7:18:PM
36
7:20:PM 7:24:PM
116
7:24:PM 7:25:PM
123
7:26:PM 7:27:PM
110
7:28:PM 7:30:PM
125
7:31:PM 7:32:PM
112
7:33:PM 7:34:PM
115
7:34:PM 7:36:PM
118
7:37:PM 7:40:PM
139
7:41:PM 7:45:PM
119
 DELAY SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to ECB Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

B 8:57:AM 9:04:AM 135270

9:06:AM 9:09:AM
230
9:14:AM 9:19:AM 180

9:20:AM 9:23:AM 240

9:26:AM 9:28:AM 130

9:34:AM 9:37:AM 150

9:38:AM 9:42:AM 185

9;43:AM 9:49:AM 209

9:50:AM 9:56:AM 210

9:57:AM 10:03:AM 200

10:04:AM 10:10:AM
167
10:11:AM 10:15:AM
190
10:16:AM 10:22:AM
210
10:23:AM 10:30:AM
215

DELAY SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to ECB Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

B 14:29:PM 14:31:PM 90

14:33:PM 14:34:PM 100

14:37:PM 14:38:PM 69

14:40:PM 14:41:PM 38
 14:43:PM 14:44:PM 32

14:48:PM 14:49:PM 28

14:50:PM 14:51:PM 106

14:52:PM 14:53:PM 45

14:54:PM 14:55:PM 88

14:58:PM 14:59:PM 98

15:00:PM 15:01:PM 56

15:02:PM 15:04:PM 45

15:05:PM 15:06:PM 78

15:07;PM 15:08:PM 98

15:09:PM 15:11:PM 45

15:11:PM 15:14:PM 67

15:14PM 15:15:PM 87

15;16:PM 15:17:PM 48

15:18:PM 15:19:PM 83

15:20:PM 15:22:PM 192

15:23:PM 15:25:PM 151

DELAY SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to ECB Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

B 6:50:PM 7:502:PM 875

 DELAY SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to DOHS Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

c 9:13:AM 9:16:AM 34

9:18:AM 9:19:AM 60

9:22:AM 9:29:AM 98

9:31:AM 9:34:AM 65

9:37:AM 9:39:AM 93

9:40:AM 9:40:AM 91

9:42:AM 9:43:AM 83

9:40:AM 9:45:AM 67

9:46:AM 9:47:AM 95

9:48:AM 9:49:AM 82

9:49:AM 9:51:AM 78

9:52:AM 9:54:AM 68

9:55:AM 9:57:AM 42

9:58:AM 9:59:AM 33

10:00:AM 10:01:AM 82

10:01:AM 10:02:AM 42

10:06:AM 10:07:AM
44
10:12:AM 10:13:AM
33
10:15:AM 10:16:AM
12
10:18:AM 10:19:AM
44
10:19:AM 10:21:AM
54

DELAY SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to DOHS Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending

c 2:25:PM 2:35:PM 212 Running

2:35:PM 2:40:PM 52

2:40:PM 2:41:PM 45 Running

2:41:PM 2:42:PM 26 Signal

2:42:PM 2:58:PM 370 Running

2:58:PM 3:00:PM 30 Signal

3:00:PM 3:03:PM 81 Running

3:03:PM 3:04:PM 29 Signal

3:04:PM 3:10:PM 133 Running

3:10:PM 3:11:PM 58 Signal

3:11:PM 3:20:PM 224 Running

3:20:PM 3:23:PM 78 Running

3:23:PM 3:27:PM 103 Running

DELAY SURVEY
Location : Kalshi to DOHS Date:20.2.2019

Time
Point Traffic Count
Starting Ending
c 6:50:PM 7:01:PM 189

7:03:PM 3:08:PM 112

7:09:PM 7:13:PM 71

7:14:PM 7:17:PM 162

7:19:PM 7:23:PM 69

7:25:PM 7:26:PM 121

7:26:PM 7:36:PM 192

7:37:PM 7:39:PM 94

7:41:PM 7:46:PM 140

7:47:PM 7:50:PM 56