WATSON GLASER TEST REVISION

 Inferences
 Recognition of assumptions
 Deduction
 Interpretation
 Evaluation of Arguments

Inferences

An inference is a conclusion based on evidence and reasoning. It enables conclusions to be

drawn that are not explicitly stated. For example, if we see someone driving a Ferrari we may
conclude that they are wealthy. However, there are a number of alternative explanations: they
may have rented or borrowed the car, or they may have acquired huge debt as a result of
buying the car. The problem with inferences is that people often reach a conclusion based on
insufficient data, and the conclusion may not therefore be correct.

An inference question typically involves a statement (which you are to assume is true) and a
number of inferences based on that statement. Your job is to evaluate whether the inference is
correct. You can do this using both the information contained within the passage and
information which is commonly accepted knowledge, or information that practically every
person has. You will be given five potential responses and you have to select which you feel
is most accurate. These options are:

Definitely True – from the facts given there is no reasonable possibility of it being incorrect.

Probably True – in light of the facts given, it is more likely to be true than false.

Insufficient data to say whether or not it is true – in light of the facts given it is impossible
to say whether it is true or not.

Probably False – in lights of the facts given, it is more likely to be false than true.

Definitely False – from the facts given, there is no reasonable possibility of it being true.

An Example Question

Statement Studies have shown that people who live in England are more likely to own their
own homes than people living in Scotland, although there is little difference in the rate of
home ownership amongst people who have the same level of educational achievement. The
average level of educational achievement is significantly higher in England than Scotland.

Inference 1 People with high educational achievements are in a better position to buy their
own homes than people with low educational achievements. (TRUE. The inference follows
from the passage.)
Inference 2 There is a lower rate of home ownership in Scotland among people with
relatively high educational achievements than among people in England with much lower
educational achievements. (FALSE. The passage says that the levels of home ownership are
similar in England and Scotland for the different levels of educational achievement, and that
more people in England both have higher educational achievement and are likely to own their
own homes. This suggests a link between educational achievement and home ownership in
both England and Scotland. Therefore the person with the highest educational achievement is
more likely, on average, to own their own home than the person with lower educational
achievements, regardless of whether they live in England or Scotland.)

Inference 3 People with higher levels of educational achievement are more likely to own
their own homes, since they earn more money than those with lower educational achievement
levels. (PROBABLY TRUE. It is widely known that educational achievement is linked, on
average, to higher-salary jobs. While one cannot conclusively say that this is true based on
the information within the passage, it is probably true based on commonly accepted
knowledge.)

Assumptions

An assumption is something we take for granted. An example might be: “When I retire I will
receive a final salary pension”. This assumes that you will get to retire, that you will be alive
at retirement age, that your pension fund performs well, and that your pension arrangements
will not change.

People make many assumptions which may not necessarily be correct; being able to identify
these is a key aspect of critical thinking.

An assumption question typically involves a statement and a number of assumptions. Your

job is to identify whether an assumption has been made or not, and you will have a choice of
two answers: yes or no.

Statement We need to save money so we’d better take a holiday in the UK.

Assumption 1 Holidays in the UK are cheaper than holidays elsewhere. (YES. It is assumed
in the statement that the cheaper price of holidays in the UK will enable the individual to save
money.)

Assumption 2 Transport costs make international holidays more expensive than those in the
UK. (NO. This assumption is not made in the statement, there is nothing mentioned about the
cost of transport within the passage, and there are many reasons why a holiday in the UK may
be cheaper.)

Assumption 3 It is possible to take a holiday within the UK. (YES.This is assumed, as in

order for the individual to take a holiday within the UK, it must be possible to take a holiday
within the UK.)
Deductions/Conclusions

A deduction is the drawing of a conclusion in a particular instance, by referring to a general

law or premise. However, there may be occasions when such deduction is incorrect. For
example, in the statement: "Satsumas, oranges and clementines are all citrus fruits. They are
all orange; therefore all citrus fruits are orange." Clearly this is incorrect.

Deduction questions include a statement (which you must assume is true), followed by a
number of potential conclusions. Your job is to identify whether the conclusion logically
follows from the statement and you will have two options: yes or no.

Statement It sometimes snows in January. Schools are always closed when it snows.
Therefore:

Deduction 1 Schools are never closed on days when it is not snowing. (NO. The conclusion
does not follow. You cannot tell from the statements whether or not schools ever close on
days when it does not snow. Some may do.)

Deduction 2 Schools are sometimes closed in January. (YES. The conclusion does follow
from the information provided since schools must be closed on days when it snows in
January.)

Deduction 3 Sometimes schools are open in January (NO. The conclusion does not logically
follow from the information provided, even though you may know that in reality schools are
often open in January.)

Interpretation

An interpretation is an evaluation of whether a conclusion can logically follow from the

information or evidence provided. This requires an individual to understand the precise
meaning or significance of a piece of information and applying this information
appropriately. For example, if you are told in a study that the wavelength of light visible to
the human eye range from 380–750nm, you can conclude that no humans can see light at
30nm.

Statement A study of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within the EU from 1990 to 2010
shows that the volume of CO2 emissions fell consistently, from 24bn tonnes per year in 1990
to 16bn tonnes per year in 2010.

Interpretation 1 The reductions in CO2 emissions demonstrate that energy efficiency

initiatives have been successful (NO. This conclusion does not follow from the information
given, which provides no evidence to explain the changes in CO2 emissions.)

Interpretation 2 The amount of CO2 emitted within the EU in 1992 was less that 24bn
tonnes. (YES. The conclusion follows beyond a reasonable doubt since, according to the
statement, the volume of CO2 emissions fell consistently.)

Interpretation 3 CO2 emissions in 2011 were lower than in 1990. (No. This conclusion does
not follow beyond doubt, because evidence is only provided for the period 1990 to 2010.)
Evaluation of Arguments

This set of questions examines your ability to evaluate the strength of an argument.
Arguments can be strong or weak, and to be strong an argument must be important and
directly related to the question. In these questions, you will be presented by a statement
followed by a number of arguments (which you should assume are true) and you must then
decide whether each argument is strong or weak.

Statement Should the voting age in the UK be lowered to 16?

Argument 1 Yes; voting provides an opportunity for young people to feel like adults.
(WEAK. This would be a poor reason for lowering the voting age.)

Argument 2 Yes; young people will be affected in the future by decisions made today.
(STRONG. This is important and relevant to the statement.)

Argument 3 No; 16-year-olds are unduly influenced by celebrities. (WEAK. This argument
is not directly related to the question, since being influenced by celebrities does not
necessarily mean that 16-year-olds should not have the opportunity to vote on important
issues.)

How Can You Prepare for a Watson Glaser Test?

It can be useful to organise your thinking and practice around the RED model mentioned
earlier in the article:

 Recognise assumptions. Practise identifying the assumptions in material. What can

be objectively proven and what is inferred? Where might there be gaps in your logic?
What information is important and relevant, and what isn’t? What is missing? Is there
any information that needs to be included which isn’t?

 Evaluate arguments. Practice carefully analysing the arguments presented. What is

your perspective on the evidence? Could someone else have a different perspective?
Consider the impacts of the arguments from a range of different viewpoints (it can be
useful to use a model like PESTLE – political, economic, socio-demographic,
technological, legal and environmental – to organise your thoughts). How would
someone argue against your position? What merits are there to their arguments?

 Draw conclusions. After you have considered all of the facts, what is the best
possible conclusion? Could there be any other conclusions? What new information
might change your conclusion? Does this conclusion seem sensible based on your
common sense and experience? What are the implications of this conclusion?

It is also useful to develop your self-awareness. Understanding your biases and thinking
patterns can help you identify where your thinking might be limited.

Finally, do take some practice tests. It can be really helpful to work through some examples
with explanations as you will really start to understand how they work and how to think
through the questions and arrive at the correct answer.