SUMMARY: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTORY PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

Experiment
An experiment is a process by which an observation is made; an observation is referred to
as an outcome, and an outcome of an experiment cannot be predicted with certainty.

Sample Space
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Event
An event is a set of outcomes of an experiment or a subset of the sample space. Note, a
Simple Event or element is an event that cannot be decomposed.

Probability of an Event:
Classical

P(E) = =

Relative Frequency

Subjective

TRY THIS
In the card game, "Between the Sheets," each player is dealt two cards, face up.
Ace is low and king is high. The player can then fold or bet that the value of a third
dealt card will be between the values of the two original cards. The bet is lost if the
third card is above, below, or matches the first two cards. You have been dealt two
cards. What is the probability of winning the bet if your cards are dealt:

a) a three and a nine?

b) a four and a ten?
c) a five and a Queen?
d) an ace and a king?
e) a pair of jacks?

Goodson/probsum 1
SECTION 2: EVENT COMPOSITION

Union
A and B are two events defined on the sample space S; the union of A and B [AUB] is the
event that A occurs or B occurs or both occur.

Intersection
A and B are two events defined on the sample space S; the intersection of A and B [A B]
is the event that both A and B occur.

Complement of an Event
If E is any event, the event that E does not occur is called the complement of E; it is all the
outcomes that are not associated with E but are in the sample space; it is written E' or E c.
Furthermore,

P(E') = 1 - P(E)

Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually exclusive events are events that have no outcomes in common.

Example 2.1
An experiment consists of rolling a single die.

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Define two events, A, B as follows.

A = {1,2,3,4}
B = {2,4,6}

Then
Union of A and B: AUB = {1,2,3,4,6}
Intersection of A and B: A B = {2,4}
Complement of A: A' = {5,6}

Goodson/probsum 2
SECTION 3: PROBABILITY AXIOMS AND RULES

A probability measure on a sample space S (i.e. collection of all possible outcomes) is a

function P from subsets of S to the real numbers that satisfies the following axioms.

Axioms of Probability

1. Nonnegative. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1.

0 < P(E) < 1

2. Certainty: The probability of the sample space is 1.

P(S) = 1

3. Union: The probability of the union of mutually exclusive events is the sum
of each event's probability.

P(AUB) = P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 3.1
An experiment consists of rolling a single die.
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Define two events, A and B, as follows.

A: "roll an even number" A = {2,4,6}
B: "roll a five" B = {5}

Events A and B are mutually exclusive events; they have no elements in common.

P(A) = =
P(B) = =
P(AUB) = P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = + = =

Some Essential Properties of Probability

(Assume A and B are events from the sample space S.)

1. P(F) = 0

2. If A is a subset of B, then P(A) < P(B).

3. P(E') = 1 - P(E)

4. Non Mutually Exclusive Events: events with common outcomes

Goodson/probsum 3
 If A and B are non mutually exclusive events,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

Example 3.2
An experiment consists of drawing one card from a deck of 52 cards.

S = {AS,2S,...,KS,AC,2C,...,KC,AH,2H,...,KH,AD,2D,...,KD}

Define events, A, B, and C, as follows.

A: "draw a black card" A = {AS,2S,...,QS,KS,AC,2C,...,QC,KC}

B: "draw a queen" B = {QS,QC,QH,QD}

C: "draw a joker" C = F (based on definition of the experiment)

Events A and B are non mutually exclusive events because there are black queens: the
queen of spades and the queen of clubs.

n(S) = 52; n(A) = 26; n(B) = 4; n(C) = 0; n(A and B) = 2

P(A) =
P(B) =
P(C) = P(F) = 0
P(A and B) = P(A B) =
P(A or B) = PAUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B) = + -

TRY THESE

1. Explain the mistake in the following statements.

a. The probability that a mineral sample will contain silver is 0.38, and the
probability that it will not contain silver is 0.52.

b. The probability that a drilling operation will be a success is 0.34, and the
probability that it will not be a success is -0.066.

c. The probability that a student will get an A in a geology course is 0.32,

and the probability that he or she will get either an A or B is 0.27.

2. What is the probability of the following events?

a. An odd number appears on the single toss of a fair die.

b. A black card is drawn when drawing a single card from an ordinary

deck of 52 cards

Goodson/probsum 4
 c. A black card or red card is drawn when drawing a single card from
an ordinary deck of 52 cards

d. Do not get a heart when drawing a single card from an ordinary

deck of 52 cards

e. An ace, a ten of diamonds, or a three of clubs appears in drawing a

single card from an ordinary deck of 52 cards.

3. The probability that an integrated circuit chip will have a defective etching
is 0.12, the probability that it will have a crack defect is 0.29, and the
probability that it will have both defects is 0.07.

a. What is the probability that a chip will have either an etching or a

crack defect?

b. What is the probability that a chip will have neither defect?

4. A car rental agency has 18 compact cars and 12 intermediate -size cars. If
four of the cars are randomly selected for a safety check, what is the
probability of getting two of each kind?

Goodson/probsum 5
SECTION 1-3 PROBLEMS: PROBABILITY

1. An experiment consists of drawing one card from a deck of 52 cards. What is the
probability that the card is:

a. the ace of spades

b. a red jack

c. a three of clubs or a six of diamonds

d. any suit but clubs

e. a ten or a king?

f. the card is a spade or an ace

g. neither a four or a club?

2. What is the probability of making a 7 in one throw of a pair of dice? Find the
probability of the other sums.

3. From a group of 10 republicans and 8 democrats, a committee of 4 is to be chosen.

a. What is the probability of choosing 2 democrats and 2 republicans? 0.4117

b. What is the probability of at most 2 democrats? 0.7941

4. The probability a new airport will get an award for its design is 0.16; the
probability that it will get an award for the efficient use of materials is 0.24, and the
probability that it will get both awards is 0.11. a) What is the probability that it will
get at least one of the two awards? b) What is the probability that it will get only
one of the two awards?

5. A box contains 9 tickets numbered from 1 to 9 inclusive. If 3 tickets are drawn

from the box, one at a time, find the probability that they are alternately: a) odd,
even, odd; b) even, odd, even.

6. In the game of bridge each of 4 players is dealt 13 cards from an ordinary well-
shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that one of the players gets a) 7
diamonds, 2 clubs, 3 hearts, and one spade, b) a complete suit, c) 9 cards are of one
suit.

LOTTERY PROBLEM

Calculate the probability of winning the Texas lottery. [Randomly select 6 numbers. You win
the grand prize if your numbers match all of the 6 numbers selected by the State. Lesser
amounts are won by matching 5, 4, or 3 numbers.]
Goodson/probsum 6
SECTION 4: INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS

Independent/Dependent Events
Two events, A and B, are independent if the occurrence of A does not affect the probability
of the occurrence of B; otherwise the events are said to be dependent.

If A and B are independent events: P(A and B) = P(A) xP(B)

If A and B are dependent events: P(A and B) = P(A)xP(B/A)

the occurrence of event B is dependent on the
occurrence of event A (written B/A).

Example 4.1
An experiment consists of drawing two cards from a deck of 52 cards with replacement,
i.e. draw one card and replace it before drawing the second card. Define two events A and
B as follows.

A: "draw a ace"
B: "draw a queen"

Events A and B are independent events because drawing an ace does not affect the
occurrence of drawing a queen (replacement).

n(S) = 52; n(A) = 4; n(B) = 4

P(A) =
P(B) =

P(A and B) = x= = 0.00592

Now change the experiment so the first card is not replaced before drawing the second card.
Now the probability of the occurrence of B is dependent upon the occurrence of the first event;
on the second draw, the number of elements in the sample space has been reduced from 52 to 51.

P(A) = P(B/A) =
P(A and B) = P(A)xP(B/A)
P(A and B) = x = = 0.00603

Goodson/probsum 7
TRY THIS
1. Find the probability of drawing 3 aces from a deck of 52 cards if the cards are:
a. replaced [1/2197]

b. not replaced. [1/17,576]

2. Among 24 invoices prepared by a billing department, 4 contain errors while the

others do not. If we randomly check 2 of these invoices, what are the
probabilities that:

a. both will contain errors?

b. neither will contain an error?

Goodson/probsum 8
SECTION 4: PROBLEMS

1. An experiment consists of tossing a coin and a die. Find the probability of getting:
a. a tail on the coin and anything on the die?
b. an odd number on the die and anything on the coin?
c. heads on the coin and a 2 or 4 on the die?
d. heads on the coin given that a 3 has come up on the die?

2. Suppose that a box contains 3 red and 2 green balls. Two balls are drawn from the box
without replacement. What is the probability that the first is red and the second is green?

3. A fair die is tossed twice. a) What is the probability of getting a 1, 2, or 3 on the first toss
and a 3, 4, 5,or 6 on the second toss?

4. What is the probability that at least one head appears in two tosses of a fair coin?

5. Two machines are used in the production of screws. The probability that machine A will
break down on any given day is 1/20, and the probability that machine B will break down
on any given day is 1/25. What is the probability that production will cease due to the
simultaneous breakdown of the machines. Assume that the two events are independent.

6. Two cards are drawn from a deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that both are aces
given that the cards are drawn a) without replacement and b) with replacement?

7. If a sales call is the result of a "lead," an industrial sales representative will make a sale
40% of the time. The individual has three leads during a given week. Assuming
independence, what is the probability that a) all three leads will result in a sale and b) at
least one lead will result in a sale?

8. Jill has three quarters and four nickels in her pocket. Two coins are selected at random.
What is the probability that a) both coins are quarters, and b) both coins have the same
value?

9. George has automobile insurance, homeowners insurance, and health insurance. Within a
given year, the probability that he will file a claim on his automobile is 0.10, on his home
is 0.06, and on his health is 0.75. Assuming that the claims are independent, find the
probability of a) filing a claim on all of these policies in a year, and b) filing at least one
claim in a year.

10. Tay-Sachs (TS) disease is a genetic disorder that is usually fatal in early childhood. If
both parents are carriers of the disease, the probability that their offspring will develop the
disease is approximately 0.25. Suppose a husband and wife are both carriers of the disease
and the wife is pregnant on three different occasions. If the occurrence of Tay-Sach in any
one offspring is independent of the occurrence of any other, what are the following
probabilities?

a) All three children will develop TS disease.

Goodson/probsum 9
 b) Only one will develop TS disease.

BIRTHDAY PROBLEM

In a party with 23 people, what is the probability that at least 2 people were born on the
same day of the year?

Ignore February 29; assume 365 days of the year are equally likely to be birthdays.

A WORTHY OPPONENT

What is more probable in playing against an equal adversary (if the game cannot end in a
tie:

a) win 3 games out of 4 or win 5 games out of 8?

b) at least 3 games out of 4 or win at least 5 games out of 8?

Goodson/probsum 10
SECTION 5: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

A and B are events of S, and the occurrence of event A is dependent on the occurrence of
event B (written A/B), then A is conditional on B and the probability of A given B is:

P(A/B) = =

If B is conditional on A,

P(B/A) = =

Example 5.1

The experiment is to roll one die and observe the number showing.

S: {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Define two events, A and B, as follows.

A: "an odd number" A = {1,3,5}

B: "a number less than 4" B = {1,2.3}

(A B): {1,3}

Note: P(A) =

Now if we use B as a restricted outcome space, and consider the ratio of number in
A to the number in B, then it can be deduced that:

P(A/B) =

In terms of a probability, this problem translates into the ratio of the probability of
both A and B happening to the probability of B happening; thus, using the formula
for conditional probability:

P(A/B) = = =

Goodson/probsum 11
SECTION 5: PROBLEMS

1. Two chips are drawn without replacement from an urn containing five black chips
and three green chips. What is the probability that a) the second chip drawn is green
if the first one was green, and b) the second chip drawn is black if the first one was
black?

2. A committee is composed of six Democrats and five Republicans. Three of the

Democrats are men, and three of the Republicans are men. If a man is chosen for
chair, what is the probability that he is a Republican? [1/2]

3. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability that all 3 are heads if

a. it is known that the first two are heads, [1/2]

b. if it is known that 2 of them are heads. [1/4]

4. A hand of five cards is to be dealt at random and without replacement

from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the conditional
probability of an all spade hand given that there are 4 spades in the hand.
[.044]

5. A coin is tossed 3 times, and 2 heads and 1 tail fall. What is the
probability that the first toss was heads? [2/3]

6. From an ordinary deck of playing cards, cards are drawn successively at

random and without replacement. Compute the probability that the third
spade appears on the sixth draw. [11/47]

Goodson/probsum 12