2020 Election: How The
2020 Election: How The
08.14.2020
HOW THE
2020
ELECTION
COULD
SHAKE OUR
FA I T H I N
D E M O C R AC Y
24 34
COLOR SHIFT
As northerners migrate to southern states,
they are bringing their voting habits with
them. That could mean the eventual end
of Republican domination in some places
and a realignment of American politics. The Coming Why Red States
Election Nightmare Have the Blues
COVER CREDIT Chaos over mail-in ballots and The blues states are colonizing
Illustration by Britt Spencer for Newsweek other breakdowns in the voting Electoral College-rich red
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*/OBA/ EDITORʝINʝ&+IEF _ Nancy Cooper
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A new generation was emerging after record-low population
1948 increases in the 1930s and predictions of lower numbers to come.
Newsweek wrote, “Human nature, being just plain cussed, had simply disregard-
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Periscope NEWS, OPINION + ANALYSIS
* E T T < ʤ2 ʥ
“We have new clusters of infections every day.” » P.
O PI N IO N
A Fitting
Memorial for
John Lewis
The best way to honor the late congressman and civil
rights activist, says the son of another great leader, is to restore
the Voting Rights Act he fought so hard to have passed
with the death of georgia congressman Act. Later that year, it became law.
John Lewis, America has lost one of our great- Lewis understood that the unobstructed right
est champions of freedom and democracy at a time to vote for all citizens, regardless of their race, reli-
when voting rights are under relentless attack across gion or gender, is the cornerstone of every great
the nation. Lewis’ legacy as a courageous and vision- democracy. A recipient of the Martin Luther King
ary champion of voting rights for Americans of all Jr. Peace Prize, Lewis worked tirelessly to end voter
races challenges each of us to carry forward the suppression practices that are still being deployed.
nonviolent struggle to eradicate all forms of voter The Voting Rights Alliance lists 61 forms of voter
suppression in the United States. suppression. These include: reducing the number
Lewis was a beloved friend and inspiration to of polling places in communities of color, intimi-
me, and I was proud that he was my congressman dating voters on Election Day, “caging” and purging
for many years. Like my father, Martin Luther King of registration rolls in selected ZIP codes, discrim-
Jr., he personified the power of nonviolence, and inatory voter identification requirements, draco-
offered his body and his blood to secure the right nian felon disenfranchisement laws, faulty voting
of all Americans to vote. Brutally beaten at the machines in minority precincts, manipulation of
Edmund Pettus Bridge in 1965, he said he “gave a legal residency requirements for college students,
little blood” to dramatize the critical importance of shrinking the window for early voting in key states
the right to vote. The images of Lewis and excessive restrictions on voting
and other civil rights movement pro- by mail, to name just a few.
testers being assaulted by police on BY
Moreover in 2013, the Supreme
that day encouraged President Lyn- Court struck down the heart of
don Johnson to call a joint session of MARTIN LUTHER KING III the Voting Rights Act, allowing
Congress to pass the Voting Rights @OfficialMLK3 states with a history of racially
12 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
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Periscope
PREP P I N G
Always Be Prepared
Doomsday preppers go to extremes
to be ready for any eventuality
listic missile (ICBM) 100 times more on it, that the members of this newly universities conducted numerous
powerful than the bomb dropped troglodytic community didn’t murder experiments to see how long peo-
on Nagasaki, Japan. Many of these each other. And the creation of such ple could withstand being trapped
silos were blown up and buried after an environment was central to Hall’s underground together. In total, in
decades of disuse. But not all of them. vision of life in the Survival Condo. the early 1960s, some 7,000 people
14 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
volunteered to be locked in spaces impact of bunker life, they would well-being underground, he told me,
with groups ranging from the size of have to embrace a realism that was could be about creating an illusion of
a family to over 1,000 people as part clearly impossible to simulate. “normal,” aboveground, pre-event life.
of the U.S. government’s attempts Hall, however, thought he had “So,” Larry said, “we will have people
to assess psychological/behavioral worked out a solution to these baking bread and making coffee, peo-
impact on people and communities. two potential obstacles. The key to ple can advertise their yoga class on
While these studies yielded inter- the café blackboard and we’re going
esting information, they all had to stack this deli case full of three dif-
numerous shortcomings. Two were ferent species of tilapia that are grown
glaringly evident: they were for a set “This thing’s gotta in the aquaponics facility next door.”
time period, and people knew they
were a performance. If such studies function like a The nitrates from the fish droppings
would fertilize soil for the plants in
were truly to assess the psychological miniature cruise ship.” the FDA-certified aquaponics facility.
NEWSWEEK.COM 15
Periscope PREPPING
The fresh produce from here would purchased with cash, was designed to means and you take steps to protect
end up in the general store. Leftover feel like a log cabin, with a loft look- your family should a problem occur.”
vegetable matter, fish heads and bones ing down on a fake fireplace flanked Both, clearly, had the means.
would be put through a grinder to by a six-screen 4K display of a snow- On level 11, about 165-feet under-
become food for the residents’ dogs capped mountain range. ground, we visited a well-appointed
and cats—including Larry’s cat, Lol- None of those buying into the full-floor 1800-square-foot condo. I
lipop, who was now happily roaming project were currently in residence. had had the same feeling walking
around the silo four stories above us. Unsurprisingly, the buyers were into a bedroom in a clean, predict-
“It’s critical that we encourage peo- elusive and close-lipped. One was able hotel chain. The apartment had
ple to come down and shop and be Nik Halik, an Australian from Mel- a Southwestern print rug, a cushy
social,” Larry was saying, “because bourne, Australia, and self-described white living room set and a stone
obviously everything in here is “thrillionaire” adventurer and wealth electric fireplace with a flat-panel TV
already paid for.” Money, in other strategist. Another, Tyler Allen, a real mounted over it. A marble countertop
words, would have no value in the estate developer from Florida, had extended to a bar that separated the
Survival Condo. Which was just as been quoted in The New Yorker as say- living room from the kitchen, which
well, given the bankruptcy-inducing ing, “They don’t put tinfoil on your was filled with high-end appliances. I
prices of buying into the Condo in head if you’re the President and you looked at one of the windows and was
the first place. Half-floor apartments go to Camp David. But they do put shocked to see that it was dark out-
here were $1.5 million; full-floor tinfoil on your head if you have the side. My instant, physiological reac-
apartments $3 million; and a two- tion was to assume that we must have
level, 3600-square-foot penthouse been underground for longer than I
had sold for $4.5 million. In total, 57 thought. Then I realized my mistake.
people would be living in 12 apart- “Prepping isn’t “ G o t yo u ,” Ha l l s a i d , l a u g h -
ments, each paying an additional
$5,000 a month in residents’ associ- pessimistic, ing. He picked up a remote con-
trol and flicked on a video feed
ation fees. One of these apartments, it’s realistic.” being piped into the “window,” a
Why this book? the apocalypse? Or just good Are there any tips you’ve
Because we’re all consumed by plain common sense? learned from your research
the dread of the unknown right Prepping takes place across a that everyday people can
now! Bunker is a book about range of scales. For the book, use to be prepared for the
preparing for calamity. It fol- I spent time inside multi- unexpected?
lows communities building for million-dollar bunkers that can Have a backup for your back-
nuclear war, social turmoil, nat- handle a direct strike by a nuclear up—whether we’re talking
ural disasters and, of course, weapon, but also spoke with peo- about computer data, access to
pandemics. At a time when ple doing what they called “practi- your money or escape routes.
C O U RT E SY O F T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F SY D N E Y
it feels like we’re just skating cal prepping,” which is something a It can provide a lot of peace in
BO OK S from one crisis to another, lot of us do instinctively. If you keep the present to have plans in
full of anxiety about what new a ʀashlight and ɿrst aid kit in your place for things that might go
16 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
vertically-installed LED screen. The Survival Condo depended on Larry and everything, but what they don’t
scene depicted was the view from setting the rules and controlling peo- get is that this isn’t about luxury. This
the front, surface-level entrance of ple’s experiences below ground. After stuff is key to survival. If you don’t
the Condo. It was daytime, breezy lockdown, the other occupants’ sense have all this stuff built in, your brain
and green outside. I could see my of context, of reality, of what was keeps subconscious score, and you
parked car through the rustling happening above ground—whether start to get varying degrees of depres-
branches of an oak tree. In the dis- or not the world had ended—was sion or cabin fever.”
tance, the camouflaged sentry was entirely in Larry’s grip. “Most people Larry expanded on his theme. “In
standing in the same place as when prefer to know what time of day it is fact, everyone needs to work gener-
we arrived. But when this video was than to see a beach in San Francisco ally. People on vacation constantly
made was unclear—maybe there though,” he said casually, flicking the get destructive tendencies. That’s just
was a time lapse, and I was watching feed off again. The screen went blank. human nature. You need to have a
a pre-recorded past I was convinced “The thing the psychologist we four-hour minimum work day and
was the present. The thought sent hired drilled into me was that my rotate jobs, so people don’t get bored
a prickle of unease down my spine. job as the developer was to make and break things,” he said. “You want
Survival Condo was a capsule, meant this place as normal as possible,” good quality food and water and for
to exclude the hardships of a hostile Larry told me. “She did work on that everyone to feel safe and to feel they’re
surface. Creating an illusion of real- project [the Biosphere in Arizona],” working together toward a common
ity through the screens was necessary Hall said. “She went over everything purpose. This thing’s gotta function
to uphold stability after an event, and in meticulous detail. Even the LED like a miniature cruise ship.”
was clearly part of Larry’s plan to lights in the bunker are set to 3000
maintain order. degrees Kelvin to prevent depression. Ơ From bunker: building for
“The screens can be loaded up with People want to know why residents the end times. Copyright © 2020
material or have a live feed piped need all this ‘luxury’—the cinema, by Bradley Garrett . Reprinted by
in,” Larry said. It was a comment climbing wall, table tennis, video permission of Scribner, an Imprint of
that drove home to me how much games, shooting range, sauna, library Simon & Schuster, Inc.
work. Should we be looking to neighbors, working through one, so that we can all retreat to it
preppers to understand how to some scenarios and having plans if need be. Until then, it can act as
be ready for the next disaster? in place for the unexpected. Com- a family holiday hang-out.
Is our reliance on technology an munity is the most crucial aspect
Achilles heel? of resiliency. What creature comfort can’t
I worry about how reliant we are you do without?
on electricity and the internet— Do you have access to your Coffee! My partner, Amanda,
for most of us, especially now, own bunker? What do you and I drove 12,000 miles around
losing power for a week would be keep on hand to prepare for the Australia last year living out of a
a crushing blow. The pandemic unexpected? Jeep. At one point we ran out of
also made clear how dependent I do have a bunker, but it’s hun- coffee; I think I would have rather
we are on grocery stores, supply dreds of miles from my family in run out of gas.
lines, banks and—most impor- Southern California. I realized
tantly—other people. Building early on in the pandemic that What’s next for you?
up resiliency for the next disaster I couldn’t take them with me, I’m planning to walk across the
(which very likely won’t be anoth- bunker: building for
and wasn’t willing to leave them Mojave Desert with my friend
er pandemic) doesn’t neces- the end times behind to fend for themselves. Wayne. I’ve been in love with the
sarily have to be about hoarding (Scribner, August) surveys So, instead I bought a cabin in desert my whole life, and I want
supplies or building a bunker, it preppers and their hideouts the woods—a bug-out location— to see if I can survive three weeks
can also be about meeting your across four continents. within driving distance for every- crossing it on foot. Wish us luck!
NEWSWEEK.COM 17
Periscope
HEALTH
18 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
ENCORE?
Fears over a
second wave
of coronavirus
infections have
been raised in
Europe following
recent spikes in
countries such
as Spain, France
and Germany.
for 10 weeks to be able to deal with July, which constitutes a third of the wave is already here,” Germany’s
a potential resurgence of the pan- country’s total confirmed number Deutsche Welle (DW) reported.
demic,” Agence-France Presse (AFP)/ of cases, according to data compiled “It is already taking place every day.
AP reported. by Worldometer. We have new clusters of infection
NEWSWEEK.COM 19
Periscope HEALTH
the month (July 29) at nearly 700. lia, RKI said. The report noted, “In the risk of coronavirus being spread
“This development is very worrying the past few weeks, the number of again across the U.K.,” she said.
and will continue to be monitored districts that have not reported any Over 17 million people across the
very closely,” a spokeswoman told COVID-19 cases over a period of globe have been infected since the
Germany’s Deutsche Presse-Agen- seven days has decreased. In paral- virus was first reported in Wuhan,
tur GmbH (DPA) news agency, DW lel, the incidence has risen in many China and, as of July 30, about
reported. “A further exacerbation of states. This trend is concerning.” 700,000 had died, according data
the situation must be avoided.” Clusters of new infections have from Johns Hopkins University.
20 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
EXTRAORDINAIRE.
YOUTH IS BACK.
firmer wrinkles
skin fade
97% 88%
PATENTED
N EW SM A KE RS
Talking Points
“SO MANY OF US
“My level of concern DESERVED EMMY
NOMINATIONS FOR
went from about an ACTING LIKE WE
eight to a 12.” AREN’T LOSING OUR
F'ING MINDS.”
—WASHINGTON NATIONALS —Broadway actress Lesli Margherita
“That they’re
MANAGER DAVE MARTINEZ
ON THE MIAMI MARLINS'
COVID-19 OUTBREAK
living in
a country
that respects
“WE IN SELMA WERE
everybody Lesli Margherita
everybody,
WA L K W I T H H I M I N H I S
F O O T ST E P S Y EA R A F T E R
celebrates
Y EA R A F T E R Y EA R .”
—rep. terri sewell on john lewis
“Our founders would
not bow before a king,
and sees nor should we bow
B<
DAV I D H . F R E E D M A N
DY N A M I C * R A PH I CS I N C ʔ* E T T Y
26 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
P OL ITI CS
out of respect for the U.S. democratic system, con- Electoral College is uniquely positioned this year
ceded. What happens if one of the candidates—the to collapse, leaving the election deadlocked and
incumbent—doesn’t concede? plunging the nation into a constitutional crisis.
Even in the best of times, a president who threat- Taken together, these factors make it more likely
ens to disrespect election norms and laws would than at any other time in more than a century that
be cause for alarm. These are not the best of times. a U.S. election will fail to produce a winner who is
The number of things likely to go wrong in this accepted by a large majority as legitimate.
election is unprecedented. Polls are vulnerable How would Americans react if one of the most
to hacking from China, Russia and North Korea. polarizing presidential elections in history leads to
Efforts to block voter registration and other forms confusion and wild accusations? Heightened levels
of suppression are rampant, particularly in Repub- of anger, doubt and fear mean that disruption in the
lican-controlled states. Skyrocketing COVID-19 days following November 3 is all too likely. Groups
infections are likely to keep people from the polls. of citizens have in recent months brandished (and
In states including California, Texas and Washing- some have fired) semi-automatic weapons in the
ton, protesters have flooded the streets for weeks; streets and other public places simply to protest pan-
in Portland, Oregon, they have clashed with fed- demic-control measures. “What I’m most worried
eral troops, all of which could disrupt polling. The about is 36 hours of chaos after the election when
Biden says he won and Trump says he won,” says
Clint Watts, a former FBI special agent specializing
in information warfare and now a research fellow
at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “You almost
know that’s what’s going to happen. Then you have
people showing up with AR-15s. Maybe it’s not a full-
scale insurrection, but it will be easy for everything
to get out of control.” For Trump, that might be fur-
ther cause to call for armed intervention.
“We managed to get through a civil war, World
War II and the social chaos of 1968 without a pres-
ident suggesting an election shouldn’t go forward,”
says David Farber, a historian at the University of
Kansas who studies 20th-century political move-
ments. “These sorts of fierce concerns about election
legitimacy are unprecedented in U.S. history.”
(In fact, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, George W.
Bush’s administration did question whether it was
legally possible to delay an election because of fears
of a terrorist attack. They did not pursue the issue.)
Even if the election doesn’t trigger an existential
crisis for American democracy, says Pinar Yildirim, a
Wharton School researcher who studies the impact
of social media, “it’s going to be one of most historic
elections we’ll see for centuries to come.”
NEWSWEEK.COM 27
POLITICS
28 NEWSWEEK.COM
lot of in-person outreach, from knocking on doors
to rallies to town halls,” she says. “All that’s disap-
peared. Instead we’re consuming more social media,
and it’s more full of misinformation.”
Ground Zero for the dissemination of political
disinformation is Facebook. In spite of growing out-
rage over the platform’s unwillingness to remove
or label false political claims and an ongoing
advertising boycott by more than 500 companies,
CEO Mark Zuckerberg insists that policies won’t
change—the result, some have argued, of a pact
forged during a meeting with Trump and Kush-
ner earlier this year. That all but ensures Facebook
will reprise its 2016 role as the channel of choice
for U.S. political disinformation hawkers, reaching
200 million Americans. Twitter is now doing more
to restrict posts that misinform or spread poten-
tially dangerous claims, to which conservatives have
responded with accusations of censorship.
Whichever side loses is sure to level the charge
that social media tilted the playing field in the
other side’s favor, helping to undermine acceptance
of the results, and feeding the fury that could ulti-
mately lead to chaos in the streets.
NEWSWEEK.COM 29
P O L IT I C S
feature, not a bug. For instance, Trump and con- to Republican pressure to hang onto restrictions
gressional supporters such as Senator Roy Blunt on mail-in ballots, most voters will have only one
of Missouri have opposed mail-in balloting on the option, says Hale: to endure long lines at the polls.
grounds that it invites fraud, in spite of studies that Meanwhile, many red states and counties have
clearly indicate otherwise, as well as the self-evident intensified their long tradition of making voter
importance of allowing citizens to vote without registration difficult and fleeting. Since 2016, 23
fear of infection. states have enacted legislation raising the bar on
The pandemic has in fact driven up voter inter- registration, such as narrowing the forms of accept-
est in mail-ins on both sides—but it may be too able identification or requiring registered voters
late to make the adjustment. Setting up a mail-in to repeatedly re-register, according to the Brennan
ballot system efficient enough to handle a large per- Center for Justice. With the exception of Rhode
centage of a state’s voters takes years, says Kathleen Island, every one of those states is red. Trump can’t
Hale, an Auburn University political scientist and afford to lose any but the smallest of them if he’s
election expert who works with officials through- going to maintain a path to victory.
out the country to help ensure elections go smoothly. In what looks like an effort to further influence
Nevertheless, in response to the pandemic, dozens the turnout, red states and counties have found
of states, including New York, have tried to vastly ways to underserve Democratic strongholds with
expand their mail-in capabilities—from supplemen- access to polling places. In 2016, the wait in polling
tary absentee ballots to universal access—virtually places serving predominantly Black neighborhoods
overnight. They could face serious problems with was nearly a third longer than those serving white
the distribution, collection and counting of those neighborhoods, according to one study. “Officials
ballots, says Hale, co-author of How We Vote: Inno- are weaponizing election budgets to selectively
vation in American Elections (Georgetown University close or increase the wait at polling places near the
Press) “There’s substantial risk in trying to change voters they don’t like,” says Philip Stark, a University
the system on the fly,” she says.
Twelve states have passed legislation since March
making it easier to vote by mail, but battleground “ T H E M O R E YO U R E LY O N T E C H N O LO GY F O R
states have drawn the most scrutiny. Small shifts THERE IS IN THE
in voting in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Geor-
gia, Michigan and North Carolina could swing
15 or more electoral votes one way or the other.
The Texas governor and its Republican legislative
majority have fought to block any expansion of
mail-in voting. A pro-mail-in-vote group sued the
state and won in a federal court, only to be over-
turned in a higher court when the state appealed.
Pennsylvania gets a C from the Brookings Insti-
tute’s mail-in-voting accessibility scorecard. So
does Georgia, which sent out mail-in ballots for
its primary. Under pressure from the Republican
state legislature, however, the state does not plan
to follow suit in the general election. Michigan gets
a B, but Trump has threatened to withhold federal
funds if the state doesn’t back off its support for
voting by mail. Trump has so far refrained from
making similar threats against Florida over its
embrace of mail-in voting, perhaps because it’s
where he himself votes—by mail, at least in the
case of this year’s primary. In states that succumb
30 NEWSWEEK.COM
been vocal in debates over voting-machine security.
“We’re not in better shape than we were in 2016,” he
says. “Arguably, we’re in worse shape.”
The problem, he says, is that virtually all voting
machines have proven vulnerable in tests to mali-
cious rigging or intrusion efforts, faulty preparation
by inadequately trained local technicians, malfunc-
tions as simple as power failures or inadequate elec-
trical cords and other issues. Georgia, Pennsylvania
and California have all experienced problems with
malfunctioning machines. Even worse, he says,
the election-night aggregation of electronic vote
counts at county and state levels provides tempting
VOT I N G , T H E M O R E F R AG I L I T Y
SYST E M F O R H AC K E R S TO E X P LO I T. ”
C LO C. WISE FROM LEFT ELIJAH NOUVELA*E ʔ* E T T Y; A L E; WROBLEWS. I ʔ
BLO OM B ER* ʔ* E T T Y; M I C H A E L E . M I L L E RʔT H E WASH I N*TON P OSTʔ*E T T Y
of California at Berkeley statistician who analyzes one-stop targets for hackers and corrupt insiders
election integrity. The COVID-19 crisis, he says, is who could be paid to sway the count.
providing those states and counties with even more The only way to ensure that all voters’s selec-
excuses to limit access to polling places. tions are counted is to have them mark their
BLOCK THAT VOTE The results are predictable: If Democrats win, choices on paper ballots, says Stark. That way, the
Small shifts in
turnout could swing Republicans will conjure up stories of a sea of results can be easily checked should allegations
battleground states. fraudulent votes. If Republicans win, Democrats of irregularities emerge. Some machines register
Some have fought to will charge that their votes couldn’t get through. votes electronically and then produce a marked
block mail-in voting.
Left to right: Primary paper ballot that can be used for a recount or audit,
voters in Atlanta; former Risks in the Machine but Stark says that’s not good enough. “There’s zero
Trump advisor Roger for those voters who do make it to the voting additional security there unless the voter takes
Stone; a Pizzagate
demonstration outside booth, can they be sure their vote will be counted? the trouble to check that the machine has marked
the White House. In most cases the answer is no, says Stark, who has the vote correctly,” he says. “The more you rely on
NEWSWEEK.COM 31
technology for voting, the more fragility there is In split-party states such as Michigan, North
in the system to exploit.” Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democratic
Yet 29 states and the District of Columbia cur- governors could counter by submitting rival elec-
rently rely on machines for all or some of their toral votes to Congress that are based on the final
voting, and many states and counties seem eager count—which, in this hypothetical scenario, would
to invest more in digital voting machines, in spite indicate a victory for Biden. The U.S. Congress
of their spotty records. Los Angeles County spent would have to sort out the mess. “There’s nothing
$300 million to get new machines ready in time in the law to stop states from submitting compet-
for California’s March primary, only to see soft- ing electoral certificates,” says Douglas. “And once it
ware problems cause wait times of three hours lands in Congress’ lap, the courts have no jurisdic-
and more. (The county later said the delays were tion at all. Even the Supreme Court can’t intervene.”
due to the electronic system that checks voters in, It gets worse: Congress may not be able to agree
not the machines, but Stark disputes that claim.) on what to do. There is no mechanism in the Con-
Meanwhile, cybersecurity experts warn that stitution for dealing with the problem, and the
Russia, China and North Korea all have the capa- Senate and House would likely come to opposite
bility to corrupt or disrupt electronic voting this conclusions, given their contrasting partisanship.
November. They have the motivation, too: Sowing In that case, both candidates could fall short of the
chaos in a major adversary and the world’s largest
democracy advances their own anti-democratic
ambitions, both internally and internationally. All
three countries have been implicated in hacking
events involving computers related to U.S. elections.
The mere suspicion that vote-counting is riddled
with errors and cyberfraud could provide fertile
ground for arguments about illegitimate results
from the losing side.
32 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
P OL ITI CS
NEWSWEEK.COM 33
THE BLUE STATES AR E COLONIZING THE
Big, Electoral College-Rich R E D STATES—
AND THERE’S LITTLE THE RED STATES
C A N DO A BOU T I T. T HE DATA DOE SN ’ T LIE
Red States
Have the
Blues
34 NEWSWEEK.COM
GETTY
A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0 NEWSWEEK.COM 35
O nce upon a time, virginia was reliably
red. Now it’s blue.
It’s the same story for California, Oregon,
Washington, Colorado, New Hampshire
and New Mexico. Arizona, North Carolina
and perhaps Georgia and Texas are on the way.
Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler is struggling in Georgia. Dem-
ocrat Cal Cunningham is ahead in North Carolina in the U.S. Sen-
ate race. Polls show Democrat Jaime Harrison is in a dead heat with
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham in reliably red South Carolina.
Within two presidential election cycles, much of the South
will be blue. As former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey
Abrams told The New York Times: “The Sun Belt expansion (by
Democrats) is what will drive the next 30 years of elections.”
Demographers and political pros have been watching and
discussing these trends for a decade. Now the data may finally
be about to deliver results, starting in the fall. In other words:
the Democrats long nightmare in the Sun Belt may be, at last,
coming to an end.
These states aren’t turning blue because conservatives are
suddenly discovering their inner AOC. The shift is driven by
demographics—what demographers call “generational replace-
ment,” urbanization and increasingly, the migration of blue-state
residents to red states. Worryingly for Republicans, these new
CLOC.WISE FROM TOP TOM FO;ʔPOOLʔGETTY; DAVID PAUL MORRISʔBLOOMBERGʔGETTY; BENJAMIN LOWYʔGETTY
arrivals have brought their voting habits and blue policies with GAP CLOSING was consistent with long-term trends.
them. Author Kristin B. Tate calls it the “liberal invasion of red Beto O’Rourke (above) For example, Texas isn’t blue, yet,
gave Ted Cruz a tight race
state America.” She believes that companies and people are flee- in 2018; Jaime Harrison but it’s getting bluer. In 2000, Presi-
ing high-tax/low-growth blue states for low-tax/high-growth red (far right) is making life dent George W. Bush got 21 more per-
states. She says, “Harris County [Houston] where I live has ab- uncomfortable for Lindsey centage points in Texas than Senator
Graham in South Carolina.
sorbed a huge number of people from California. A middle-class “The Sun Belt expansion” Al Gore. In 2016, President Donald
family can afford a home here.” by Democrats, says Trump beat Secretary Hillary Clinton
Welcome to the Great Migration 2.0, one that may give the Stacey Abrams (right), “is by only 9 points. That means that the
what will drive the next
Democrats an electoral advantage that could last for generations 30 years of elections.” red advantage fell between 2000 and
to come. (See map on pg.40) 2016. That’s consistent with other
To understand what’s really going on, we spoke to a dozen recent election results in Texas, like
experts and dove deep into the data. Working with data provided Senator Ted Cruz squeaking by Beto O’Rourke in the closest Sen-
by William H. Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution ate election in Texas since 1978.
and author of Diversity Explosion (Brookings Institution Press), Of course, migration cuts both ways. As blue voters leave, that’s
we looked at 20 years of migration by state, and compared that helped turn states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan
to changes in presidential voting patterns using data from the redder. Overall, 27 states turned redder and 23 plus the District of
website 270toWin. And finally, we studied migration patterns by Columbia turned bluer since 2000. That sounds like good news
age from a database at the University of Wisconsin. for Republicans. But it’s not. Swapping the Rust Belt for the Sun
What we found is not great news for the Grand Old Party. Belt is a bad deal for Republicans—46 Electoral College votes
from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan for 109 (North Car-
Out of the Blue olina, Georgia, Florida and Texas).
we’ve used the difference in which candidate people voted Other states getting redder are blood red already. And there
for president in 2000 and 2016 to gauge whether a state is get- aren’t as many vulnerable blue states left to flip as there are red
ting redder or bluer. Even though it’s tempting to dismiss 2016 states that could potentially become blue.
because the two candidates were particularly polarizing, 2016 Why is this happening? Simply put, it appears that residents
36 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
P O L IT I C S
NEWSWEEK.COM 37
E M I LY . AS. ʔA FPʔG E T T Y
38 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
TURNING TIDE?
Former Vice President
and Democratic
presidential candidate
Joe Biden at a rally in
Trump country in March.
NEWSWEEK.COM 39
The Blue
Invasion
Changes in presidential
voting from 2000 to 2016
show that Democrats are
making gains in the electoral
collegeśrich Sun Belt states,
partly because of migration to
the South from blue states. The
exodus makes the big blues pinker,
but in no danger of turning..
SOURCE BROO.INGS INSTITUTION; 270TOWIN.COM; NEWSWEE. ANALYSIS; DATA VISUALI=ATION BY LU= DUNN OF DATABAYOU.
40 NEWSWEEK.COM
P O L IT I C S
Professor Seth C. McKee, now at Oklahoma State, and Jere- Carolina Blue
my M. Teigen of Ramapo College have analyzed migration to for a good case study of this trend, let’s take a look at
the South and its impact on voting. Midwest migrants skewed a state many political scientists see as the next red state to tip:
slightly Democratic; those from the Pacific Coast very slightly North Carolina.
Republican; and from the Mountain/Plains states strongly Re- Today, it’s a purple state, voting for Obama in 2008, for Rom-
publican. But the X-factors were those from the Northeast. They ney in 2012 and Trump in 2016—who won 50 percent to 46 per-
tended to overwhelmingly vote Democratic. How overwhelm- cent. That’s a solid majority, but it’s only a fraction of the 13-point
ingly? According to McKee and Teigen, “a 10 percent increase in advantage Bush had in 2000. J. Michael Bitzer, professor of poli-
newcomers from the Northeast to a southern county increases tics and history at Catawba College in Salisbury, North Carolina,
the Democratic presidential vote in 2008–2012 by approximate- says, “The recent polls still have things pretty much a dead heat
ly five percentage points.” In the 2016 election, 11 states were for both the presidential and U.S. Senate races.” The senate race
decided by five points or less. is between incumbent Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal
Their data says that overall for the South, in 2012 the mix of Cunningham. In addition, polls show Democratic Governor Roy
migrants was 34 percent from the Northeast; 31 percent from the Cooper up by eight points over challenger Dan Forest.
Midwest; and 35 percent from the Mountains, Plains and Pacific As Newsweek’s Jason Lemon reported, earlier this month the
Coast. Not surprisingly that varied widely across the region. Texas Asheville, North Carolina, City Council voted to pay reparations
got only 40 percent of its migrants from the Northeast and the to African Americans in what Mayor Esther Manheimer says is a
Midwest, while Georgia got 66 percent of its migrants from those “progressive-leaning” city. “Asheville sure isn’t the same as it used
regions, North Carolina 73 percent, South Carolina 75 percent to be, and I think those who have moved here over the last 20–40
and Florida a whopping 81 percent. years are at the core of that change,” says Able Allen, who covers
Perhaps Republicans were right to worry about migrant cara- the City Council for the local newspaper, the Mountain Xpress.
vans in 2018. But they were coming from New York. Indeed, migration explains much of the change. Back when
North Carolina was Senator Jesse Helms territory, it was a rural
state composed of people who were born there. That’s changed.
According to Rebecca Tippett, founding director of Carolina De-
mography at the Carolina Population Center at UNC-Chapel Hill,
70 percent of the state’s population were native born in 1990.
That’s now down to 56 percent. McKee and Teigen analyzed the
2008 and 2012 presidential election results in North Carolina by
voter tabulation district (the voting equivalent of a precinct) and
found that the single most important factor in predicting voting
outcome was migration. Between 2000 and 2016, North Carolina
added a million newcomers. In 2018, 62 percent of the domestic
migrants came from blue states, mostly in the Northeast.
Of course, not everyone from a blue state votes blue. Many
older people lean red, and North Carolina is a destination for
retirees from the snow belt. In the 2000s, the median age of mi-
grants to Florida and South Carolina has been 10 to 15 years older
than those to Virginia and Georgia. North Carolina’s migrants
fall in-between—older than blue Virginia’s, but younger than red
South Carolina’s. Retirees who relocate to North Carolina tend
to settle either in the mountains or along the coast. They often
move to rural areas, but not necessarily farm counties. Rather
they’re more likely to move to what University of New Hampshire
professor Kenneth Johnson calls “recreational” counties.
But they’re outnumbered by younger people who move to North
Carolina urban areas for job opportunities. Many are mid-career
professionals and new graduates attracted to the Triangle (the Re-
search Triangle Park area, which includes Raleigh, Durham and
NEWSWEEK.COM 41
Chapel Hill) or the massive banking industry in Charlotte. As Brook-
ings’ Frey says, “Big cities are magnets. You can still get your latte
and New York Times.” Together the two streams of migrants create
jobs that attract more domestic migrants, like those who work in
industries like construction and services, including many Hispanics.
For those hoping to keep North Carolina red, that growing
Hispanic population may be the most worrying trend. Accord-
ing to the Carolina Population Center, between 2010 and 2018,
the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that North Carolina’s Hispanic
population grew by 197,000 new residents. Today many Hispanic
migrants either lack citizenship or are too young to vote, but both
of those could change. “The electorate lags demographics. It takes
time for changes to show up in the voting,” says Tippett.
Lag or no lag, the change is here in North Carolina: In addition
to migration and the growing Hispanic population, there’s also
generational change. Tippett has prepared a forecast of North
Carolina demographics through 2035. Her analysis says that mil-
lennials already outnumber boomers in the state, and by 2035
there will be three times as many millennials and Gen Xers as
boomers. Even the Gen Z cohort will be larger than boomers.
Unless there’s a seismic shift in how migrants, minorities and
young people vote, North Carolina is going blue.
“ B I G C I T I E S A R E magnets.
YOU C A N ST ILL GET YOU R
L A T T E A N D N E W Y O R K T I M E S .”
42 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
P O L IT I C S
Bottom Line Distinguished Professor Charles S. Bullock III, who holds the
most experts agree north carolina, georgia and perhaps Richard B. Russell Chair of Political Science at the University of
Florida, Arizona and Texas will turn blue, but no one is sure Georgia, says, “Republicans are dying off and their grandchil-
FROM TOP MAR. WALLHEISERʔGETTY; LU.E SHARRETTʔBLOOMBERGʔGETTY; MANDEL NGANʔAFPʔGETTY
exactly when. NCSU’s Morris says “The vector is clear but the dren are voting Democratic. The Democrats are making gains
timing is not. Usually there’s a decrease in migration during an in Georgia, Florida and North Carolina. Republicans are start-
economic downturn. And there’s COVID. But while the rate of ing to lose at the state level. Congressional districts are flipping.
migration may decrease, don’t expect to see any changes in the [Brian] Kemp won in Georgia by a fourth of what Trump won
demographic mix of movers.” by. And had there been an honest count in North Carolina, that
Here’s what is clear: We’re likely to see the blue wave crest in congressional seat might have flipped. The new South is going
the national and statewide races first. State assemblies and the to turn blue in the 2020s, and Democrats will consolidate their
House of Representatives can be tilted by redistricting, which is gains in the 2030s.”
done by state legislatures. Despite being less than half the popu- He adds: “It took a long time to go from being solid blue to solid
lation, Republicans control 58 percent of those, according to the red, and once it goes blue, it’s going take a long time to go back.”
National Conference of State Legislatures, and not surprisingly
they draw maps that favor them. In 2018, the Supreme Court split Data Doesn’t Lie
along partisan lines in upholding most of the 2013 redistricting CHANGING GUARD it’s tempting to look at the 2020
in Texas, although it did find one district was the result of racial Millennials are starting election as a test of the red-states-turn-
gerrymandering. North Carolina redistricted following the 2010 to outnumber boomers in ing-blue theory. Probably not. This
some key states as they
elections after Republicans won a supermajority in both houses migrate south. Should very polarizing president, a histori-
of the General Assembly. They have redistricted twice since, all of President Trump be cally weak economy and the pandem-
which have been challenged in the courts. According to Bloomberg, concerned? From top: ic create a unique and very unpredict-
a poll worker in Florida
the court-ordered plan finalized at the end of 2019 is expected to and new construction able situation. No one knows how all
give Democrats a “strong chance” to add two House seats. in North Carolina. these factors will affect turnout, which
way independent voters might go or
whether something else will happen
before then that could completely
change the equation yet again. Texas,
North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and
Florida could go either red or blue,
and pundits would have plausible nar-
ratives to explain either outcome. And
while a recent Fox News poll showed
Biden up in all five states as of June 25,
it’s five months between that finding
and the first Tuesday in November.
Nonetheless, the data doesn’t lie.
Change is coming. The blue states are
colonizing the big, electoral college–rich
red states—and there’s little those red
states, and the GOP, can do about it.
NEWSWEEK.COM 43
Culture
Culture HIGH, LOW + EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN
THEATER
RETROSPECTIVE
Although the annual
Avignon theater
festival in France
was canceled
this year due to
COVID-19, event
organizers were able
to project videos
of plays from prior
years on an outdoor
screen last month.
A FPʔG E T T Y
44
44 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
U NC HA R T E D
Outdoor Movies
with CinematicViews
While catching a ɿlm in a theater is on hold right now, thereŠs a
silver liningŜthere are more places than ever to watch a movie under the stars
The pandemic has given drive-ins a new moment of prominence, but at some of
these locations around the world you donŠt even need to stay in your car
Watch a ɿlm at a ţʀoating cinemaŤ on your own private mini-boat, by an English
medieval castle or against the backdrop of the illuminated ancient Acropolis YouŠll feel
like youŠre in a scene from the moviesŜwhile watching one —Kathleen Rellihan
46 NEWSWEEK.COM A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
08 Cinema Paradiso, Soneva Kiri
Thailand
The jungle surround sound here isn’t coming
from the screen. It’s real. When was the last
time you watched a movie on a lagoon in a
tropical rainforest on a tiny island" Sit back on
your lounger and escape into a ɿlm under the
moonlight with the waves lapping in the distance.
06 The Rathausplatz
Vienna, Austria
Every summer for the last 0 years, ɿlms,
musicals and operas have been shown on a
giant screen in Vienna’s city square. This year,
the dramatic Baroque setting was turned into
6
an open-air cinema with 500 seats divided
into spectator boxes for two or four people
each and a separate food-stall area.
5
7
0 1 GEORGE ROSEʔG E T T Y; 0 2 S . Y L I N ED R I V E I N NYC; 0 . I R A N R I D L E YʔG E T T Y; 0 4 TH E LU NA CI NEM A; 0 5 LOR E N=O B U RL AN D Oʔ
C I N ET E CA D I BO LO G NA ; 0 6 GU O C H E Nʔ ;I NH UA ʔG E T T Y; 0 7 VAS I L I OS .OUTROUMANOS; 0 S ONE VA ; 0 ROBIN SMITHʔG E T T Y
09 Westpac OpenAir
8 Cinema
Sydney, Australia
At what has been dubbed
one of the most beautiful
Cine Thision outdoor cinemas in the
07
Athens, Greece world, guests can view a
Theater has been important in Greece variety of ɿlms against the
since ancient times and still is. Built backdrop of a gorgeous
in 15, this is one of the oldest sunset and the Opera House
open-air movie theaters in Athens, or harbor during January and
and it features the timeless backdrop February—Sydney’s summer
of the Acropolis lit up at night. months. The screen stands
three stories high, and the
venue has the capacity to hold
up to 2,000 people—though
time will tell if restrictions
will allow for a full house.
NEWSWEEK.COM 47
Culture
PA R T I NG S HO T
Sean Hayes
in the past few years, podcasts have gone from niche to main- Why do you think podcasts like
stream. Will & Grace’s Sean Hayes is the latest major talent to join the Smartless are so successful?
fray with his new podcast Smartless, which he co-hosts with longtime buddies We’ve been talk-showed to death.
Jason Bateman and Will Arnett. “We’ve all been friends for over 20 years.” On I’m still a fan, and I may do one
Smartless, they each invite a guest the other two either don’t know personally myself one day. But they’re showing
or aren’t aware are going to be guests. The result is a lot of surprises, learn- you a produced segment. On
ing—and most importantly, laughs. “I have never laughed so hard in my life. a podcast, you don’t have that
Those guys are two of the funniest people and two of the sweetest guys I’ve ever structure. I think people are drawn
known.” Hayes recently revisited playing Jack, the role that made him famous, to that because it’s more real.
on the reboot of Will & Grace. The show was known for its major guest stars,
which included an iconic episode where Hayes had a dance-off in front of Janet Do you ever invite a guest to
Jackson—“As one does”—with now podcast co-host Will Arnett. But one major throw off Jason or Will?
star didn’t make the cut. “Jesus Christ and Jason Bateman were the only two I’ve done that. Everybody’s thrown
people never on during the show’s run.” off because it’s always a surprise. I
like being surprised by the sports
ɿgures they bring on because I have
no idea who they are.
A U G U S T 14 , 2 0 2 0
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