Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Overview
History
1969 - Allin Cornell BSSA paper
Rapid development since that time
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Overview

Deterministic (DSHA)
Assumes a single “scenario”
Select a single magnitude, M Ground
Ground
Select a single distance, R motion
motion
Assume effects due to M, R parameters
parameters

Probabilistic (PSHA)
Assumes many scenarios
Consider all magnitudes Ground
Ground
Consider all distances motion
motion
Consider all effects parameters
parameters
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Overview

Why?
Why? Because
Because we
wedon’t
don’tknow
know when
when
earthquakes
earthquakeswill
will occur,
occur,wewe don’t
don’t
know
knowwhere
wherethey
they will
will occur,
occur, and
andwe
we
don’t
don’t know
knowhow
how big
big they
theywill
willbebe

Probabilistic (PSHA)
Assumes many scenarios
Consider all magnitudes Ground
Ground
Consider all distances motion
motion
Consider all effects parameters
parameters
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Consists of four primary steps:

1. Identification and characterization of all sources
2. Characterization of seismicity of each source
3. Determination of motions from each source
4. Probabilistic calculations

PSHA
PSHAcharacterizes
characterizesuncertainty
uncertainty in
in
location,
location,size,
size, frequency,
frequency,and
andeffects
effects
of
of earthquakes,
earthquakes, and and combines
combinesallall of
of
them
them toto compute
computeprobabilities
probabilitiesof
of
different
differentlevels
levelsofof ground
ground shaking
shaking
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Need to specify distance measure

Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship

Vertical
VerticalFaults
Faults
rjb
rrup
rseis Seismogenic
depth
rhypo
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Need to specify distance measure

Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship

Dipping
DippingFaults
Faults
rjb=0 rjb

rseis
rseis & rrup
rrup rhypo
rhypo
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Where on fault is rupture most likely to occur?

Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
on where
whererupture
rupture
occurs
occurs
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Where is rupture most likely to occur? We don’t know

Source-site
Source-site
distance
distancedepends
depends
on
on where
whererupture
rupture
occurs
occurs
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Approach: Assume equal likelihood at any point

Characterize uncertainty probabilistically

rmin

rmax fR(r)

rmin rmax r
pdf
pdffor
forsource-
source-
site
sitedistance
distance
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Two practical ways to determine fR(r)

Draw
Drawseries
seriesof
of
concentric
concentriccircles
circles
with
withequal
equalradius
radius
rmin
increment
increment

Measure
Measurelength
lengthof
offault,
fault,
rmax LLi,,between each pair
i between each pair
of
ofadjacent
adjacentcircles
circles

Assign
Assignweight
weightequal
equalto
to
LLi/L to each
i/L to each
corresponding
corresponding
distance
distance
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Two practical ways to determine fR(r)

Divide
Divideentire
entirefault
faultinto
into
equal
equallength
lengthsegments
segments
rmin
Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
site
siteto
tocenter
centerof
ofeach
each
rmax segment
segment

Create
Createhistogram
histogramof of
Linear source source-site
source-sitedistance.
distance.
Accuracy
Accuracyincreases
increases
with
withincreasing
increasing
number
numberof ofsegments
segments
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
area
areaelements
elements

Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
Areal Source center
centerof
ofeach
eachelement
element

Create
Createhistogram
histogramofof
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Divide
Dividesource
sourceinto
intoequal
equal
volume
volumeelements
elements

Compute
Computedistance
distancefrom
from
center
centerof
ofeach
eachelement
element

Create
Createhistogram
histogramofof
source-site
source-sitedistance
distance
 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Unequal
Unequalelement
elementareas?
areas?

Create
Createhistogram
histogramusing
using
weighting
weightingfactors
factors--weight
weight
according
accordingtotofraction
fractionof
oftotal
total
source
sourcearea
area
 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in source-site distance

Quick
Quickvisualization
visualizationof
ofpdf?
pdf?

Use
Useconcentric
concentriccircle
circle
approach
approach--lets
letsyou
you“see”
“see”
basic
basicshape
shapeofofpdf
pdfquickly
quickly
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Characterization of maximum magnitude

Determination of Mmax - same as for DSHA

Empirical correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
“Theoretical” determination
Slip rate correlations

Also
Alsoneed
needtotoknow
know
distribution
distributionofof magnitudes
magnitudes
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

Given source can produce different earthquakes

Low magnitude - often
Large magnitude - rare

Gutenberg-Richter
Southern California earthquake data - many faults
Counted number of earthquakes exceeding different
magnitude levels over period of many years
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

NM log NM

M M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

log M

Mean
Meanannual
annual rate
rate
of
ofexceedance
exceedance

MM ==NNMM //TT

M
 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

log M

0.01 100 yrs

Return
Returnperiod
period
(recurrence
(recurrenceinterval)
interval) 0.001 1000 yrs

log TR
TTRR == 11/
/MM M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

log M
10a

b
Gutenberg-Richter
Gutenberg-Richter
Recurrence
RecurrenceLaw
Law
log TR
log
logMM== aa-- bM
bM 0 M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law

log M = a - bM

Implies that earthquake magnitudes are

exponentially distributed (exponential pdf)

Can also be written as

ln M =  - M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

Then

M = 10a - bM = exp[ - M]

where  = 2.303a and  = 2.303b.

For an exponential distribution,

fM(m) =  e-m
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

Neglecting events below minimum magnitude, mo

m =  exp[ - (m - mo)] m > mo

where  = exp[ -  mo].

Then,

fM(m) =  e-m-mo)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

For worldwide data (Circumpacific belt),

log m = 7.93 - 0.96M

M=6 m = 148 /yr TR = 0.0067 yr

M=7 m = 16.2 TR = 0.062
M=8 m = 1.78 TR = 0.562

M = 12 m = 0.437 TR = 2.29
M
M>> 12
12every
everytwo
twoyears?
years?
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

Every source has some maximum magnitude

Distribution must be modified to account for Mmax
Bounded G-R recurrence law

exp[  (m  m o )]  exp[  (m max  m o )]

m 
1  exp[  (m max  m o )]
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
log has
Every source m Bounded
some G-R magnitude
maximum
Recurrence Law
Distribution must be modified to account for Mmax
Bounded G-R recurrence law

exp[  (m  m o )]  exp[  (m max  m o )]

m 
1  exp[  (m max  m o )]

Mmax M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Law

Paleoseismic investigations
Show similar displacements in each earthquake
Inividual faults produce characteristic earthquakes
Characteristic earthquake occur at or near Mmax
Could be caused by geologic constraints
More research, field observations needed
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes

log m
Characteristic
Seismicity data Earthquake
Recurrence
Law

Geologic data

Mmax M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Predictive relationships

Standard error
log m- use to evaluate conditional probability

ln Y P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

Y = Y*
ln Y
M = M*

R = R* log R
Mmax M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Predictive relationships

Standard error - use to evaluate conditional probability

ln Y
P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

ln Y
Y = Y*
M = M*

R = R* log R

M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty

Poisson process - describes number of occurrences of an

event during a given time interval or spatial region.

1. The number of occurrences in one time interval are

independent of the number that occur in any other
time interval.
2. Probability of occurrence in a very short time interval is
proportional to length of interval.
3. Probability of more than one occurrence in a very short
time interval is negligible.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty

Poisson process

 n e
P [N  n ] 
n!

where n is the number of occurrences and m is the

average number of occurrences in the time interval
of interest.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty

Poisson process

Letting  = t

( t ) e  t
n
P [N  n ] 
n!

Then
P [N  0]  P [N  1]  P [N  2]  P [N  3]  ...  P [n  ]
 1  P [N  0 ]
 1  e  t
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty

Poisson process

P  1  e  t

Consider an event that occurs, on average, every

1,000 yrs. What is the probability it will occur at
least once in a 100 yr period?

 = 1/1000 = 0.001

P = 1 - exp[-(0.001)(100)] = 0.0952
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty

What is the probability it will occur at least once in

a 1,000 yr period?

P = 1 - exp[-(0.001)(1000)] = 0.632

Solving for ,

ln(1  p)

t
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty

Then, the annual rate of exceedance for an event

with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs is

ln(1  0.1)
  0.0021
50

The corresponding return period is TR = 1/ = 475 yrs.

For 2% in 50 yrs,  = 0.000404/yr TR = 2475 yrs

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Summary of uncertainties

Location fR(r) Source-site

Source-sitedistance
distancepdf
pdf

Size fM(m) Magnitude

Magnitudepdf
pdf

Effects P[Y > Y*| M=M*, R=R*]

Attenuation
Attenuation
Timing P = 1 - e-t relationship
relationship
including
including
standard
standarderror
error
Poisson
Poissonmodel
model
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

U U U
P[A] = P[A B1] + P[A B2] + … + P[A B N]

P[A] = P[A|B1]P[B1] + P[A|B2]P[B2] + … + P[A|BN]P[BN]

B1 B2 B3 Total
Total
Probability
Probability
A Theorem
Theorem
B5
B4
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

Applying total probability theorem,

P [Y  y *]  P [Y  y * | X]P [ X]   P [Y  y * | X] f X ( X)dx

where X is a vector of parameters.

We assume that M and R are the most important

parameters and that they are independent. Then,

P [Y  y *]    P [Y  y * | m, r ] f M (m ) f R (r )dmdr
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

P [Y  y *]    P [Y  y * | m, r ] f M ( m ) f R ( r )dmdr

Above equation gives the probability that y* will be

exceeded if an earthquake occurs. Can convert
probability to annual rate of exceedance by multiplying
probability by annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes.

 y *     P [Y  y * | m, r ] f M (m ) f R (r )dmdr

where  = exp[ - mo]

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

If the site of interest is subjected to shaking from more

than one site (say Ns sites), then

Ns
 y *    i   P [Y  y * | m, r ] f Mi (m ) f Ri (r )dmdr
i 1

For realistic cases, pdfs for M and R are too complicated

to integrate analytically. Therefore, we do it numerically.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

Dividing the range of possible magnitudes and distances

into NM and NR increments, respectively
NS NM NR
 y *      i   P [Y  y * | m j , r k ] f Mi (m j ) f Ri (r k )mr
i 1 j 1 k 1

This expression can be written, equivalently, as

NS NM NR
 y *      i   P [Y  y * | m j , r k ]P [M  m j ]P [R  r k ]
i 1 j 1 k 1
 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

What does it mean? All

Allpossible
possibledistances
distancesareare
considered
considered--contribution
contributionofof
each
eachisisweighted
weightedby byits
its
probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence

NS NM NR
 y *      i   P [Y  y * | m j , r k ]P [M  m j ]P [R  r k ]
i 1 j 1 k 1

All All
Allpossible
possiblemagnitudes
magnitudesareare
Allsites
sitesare
are
considered considered
considered--contribution
contributionof
of
considered All
Allpossible
possibleeffects
effectsare
are each
eachisisweighted
weightedbybyits
its
considered
considered--each
eachweighted
weighted probability
probabilityof
ofoccurrence
occurrence
by
byits
itsconditional
conditionalprobability
probability
of
ofoccurrence
occurrence
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

NM x NR possible combinations
Each produces some probability of exceeding y*
Must compute P[Y > y*|M=mj,R=rk] for all mj, rk

r NR

r1

m1 m 2 m 3 mNM
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

Compute conditional probability for each element on grid

Enter in matrix (spreadsheet cell)

P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]

ln Y
M=m2
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
ln Y
Y = y*

r1 r2 log R
r3
rN
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations
“Build” hazard by:
computing conditional probability for each element
multiplying conditional probability by P[mj], P[rk], i
Repeat for each source - place values in same cells

rNR
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]
r1

m 1 m2 m3 mN M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations
When complete (all cells filled for all sources),

Sum all -values for that value of y* y*

rNR
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]
r1

m 1 m2 m3 mN M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

Choose new value of y*

Repeat entire process
Develop pairs of (y*, y*) points Plot

Seismic
Hazard
rNR Curve
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r3]
log y*

log TR
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r2]
P[Y > y*| M=m2, R=r1]
r1

m 1 m2 m3 y* mN M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties - probability computations

Seismic hazard
curve shows the
mean annual rate of
log amax

exceedance of a
log y*

log TR

log TR
particular ground
motion parameter. A
seismic hazard curve
is the ultimate result
of a PSHA.
amax y*
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Using seismic hazard curves

Probability of exceeding
amax = 0.30g in a 50 yr
period?
log amax

log TR
P = 1 - e-t
= 1 - exp[-(0.001)(50)]
= 0.049 = 4.9%

In a 500 yr period?
0.001
P = 0.393 = 39.3%
amax=0.30g
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Using seismic hazard curves

What peak acceleration has a

10% probability of being
exceeded in a 50 yr period?
log amax

10% in 50 yrs:  = 0.0021

log TR
or
TR = 475 yrs
0.0021 475 yrs
Use seismic hazard
curve to find amax value
corresponding to
 = 0.0021
amax=0.21g
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Using seismic hazard curves

Contribution of sources

Total Can break -values down

into contributions from
log amax

each source

log TR
2 Plot seismic hazard
1 curves for each source
and total seismic
hazard curve (equal to
3 sum of source curves)
Curves may not be
parallel, may cross
amax Shows which source(s)
most important
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Using seismic hazard curves

Can develop seismic hazard

curves for different ground
motion parameters
Peak acceleration
log amax

Spectral accelerations

log TR
Other
Choose desired -value
Read corresponding
parameter values from
seismic hazard curves

amax, Sa
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Using seismic hazard curves

Can develop seismic hazard

curves for different ground
motion parameters
Peak acceleration
log amax

Spectral accelerations

log TR
Other
Choose desired -value
Read corresponding
parameter values from
seismic hazard curves

amax, Sa
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

0.1
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs
Crustal
Peak
Peakacceleration
acceleration
0.01

amax
Intraplate

0.001

Interplate
0.0001
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

0.1
2%
2%in
in50
50yrs
yrs

SSa(T = 3 sec)
a(T = 3 sec)

0.01 Crustal

amax Intraplate

0.001

Interplate

0.0001
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uniform hazard spectrum (UHS)

Find spectral acceleration values for different periods at constant 

All Sa values have same -value same probability of exceedance

Sa

Uniform
Uniform
Hazard
Hazard
Spectrum
Spectrum

T
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)

Common question:

What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

25 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 Total hazard includes
50 km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 contributions from all
75 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02 combinations of M & R.
100 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02

125 km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01

150 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00

175 km 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00

200 km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)

Common question:

What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

25 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 Total hazard includes
50 km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 contributions from all
75 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02 combinations of M & R.
100 km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02
Break hazard down into
125 km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01
contributions to “see
150 km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00 where hazard is coming
175 km 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 from.”
200 km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 M=7.0 at R=75 km
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)

USGS disaggregations

Seattle,
Seattle,WA
WA

2%
2%in in50
50yrs
yrs
(T
(TRR==2475
2475yrs)
yrs)

SSa(T = 0.2 sec)

a(T = 0.2 sec)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)

USGS disaggregations

Olympia,
Olympia,WA
WA

2%
2%in in50
50yrs
yrs
(T
(TRR==2475
2475yrs)
yrs)

SSa(T = 0.2 sec)

a(T = 0.2 sec)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)

USGS disaggregations

Olympia,
Olympia,WA
WA

2%
2%in in50
50yrs
yrs
(T
(TRR==2475
2475yrs)
yrs)

SSa(T = 1.0 sec)

a(T = 1.0 sec)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)

Another disaggregation parameter

For
Forlow
lowy*, most
y*,most
ln y * ln y values
valueswill
willbe
benegative
negative
 
 ln y
For
Forhigh
highy*, most
y*,most
 = -1.6 values
valueswill
willbe
bepositive
positive
and
andlarge
large
ln Y M=m  = -0.8
2

 = 1.2  = 2.2
ln Y
Y = y*

r1 r2 log R
r3
rN
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods

Not all uncertainty can be described by probability

distributions

Most appropriate model may not be clear

• Attenuation relationship
• Magnitude distribution
• etc.

Experts may disagree on model parameters

• Fault segmentation
• Maximum magnitude
• etc.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
Mmax
Model Distribution
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)

7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
Mmax
Model Distribution
7.0 (0.2)
Sum
Sumof
ofweighting
weightingfactors
factors G-R 7.2 (0.6)
coming
comingout
outof
ofeach
eachnode
node (0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
must
mustequal
equal1.0
1.0 BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)

7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
Mmax
Model Distribution
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)

7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
A&S
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2)
Char. 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
Model Distribution
Mmax w
7.0 (0.2) 0.07
G-R 7.2 (0.6) 0.21
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2) 0.07
BJF
(0.5) 7.0 (0.2) 0.03
Char. 7.2 (0.6) 0.09
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2) 0.03
7.0 (0.2) 0.07
Final
Finalvalue
valueofofYYis
is G-R 7.2 (0.6) 0.21
obtained
obtainedas as (0.7) 7.5 (0.2) 0.07
weighted
weightedaverage
averageof of A&S
all
allvalues
valuesgiven
givenby
by (0.5) 7.0 (0.2) 0.03
terminal
terminalbranches
branches Char. 7.2 (0.6) 0.09
of
oflogic
logictree
tree (0.3) 7.5 (0.2) 0.03
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods

Recent PSHA logic tree included:

Cascadia interplate
2 attenuation relationships
2 updip boundaries
3 downdip boundaries
2 return periods
4 segmentation models
2 maximum magnitude approaches
192 terminal branches
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods

Recent PSHA logic tree included:

Cascadia intraplate
2 intraslab geometries
3 maximum magnitudes
2 a-values
2 b-values
24 terminal branches
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods

Recent PSHA logic tree included:

Seattle Fault and Puget Sound Fault

2 attenuation relationships
3 activity states
3 maximum magnitudes
2 recurrence models
2 slip rates
72 terminal branches for Seattle Fault
72 terminal branches for Puget Sound Fault
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods

Recent PSHA logic tree included:

Crustal areal source zones

7 source zones
2 attenuation relationships
3 maximum magnitudes
2 recurrence models
3 source depths
252 terminal branches

Total
TotalPSHA
PSHArequired
requiredanalysis
analysisof
of 612
612combinations
combinations