ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS TO

DEVELOP TARGET GROUPS

FOR COUNTERMEASURES

VOLUME 1 :
METHODS AND CONCLUSIONS

by

MaxCameron

Monash University
Accident Research Centre

December 1992

Report No. 46
Printed by the Australian Road Research Board as part of an agreement with
Monash University Accident Research Centre.
 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE

Report No. Report Date ISBN Pages

46 December 1992 0732600464 52

Title and sub-title:

Accident Data Analysis to Develop Target Groups for Countermeasures

Volume I: Methods and Conclusions

Author(s) Type of Report & Period Covered

Cameron, M.H. General, 1990-92

Sponsoring Organisation - This project was funded through the Centre's baseline research
program for which grants have been received from:

Australian Road Research Board

Department of Justice
Roads Corporation (VIC ROADS)
Royal Automobile Club of Victoria Ltd.
Transport Accident Commission

Abstract:
The general objective of the project was to disaggregate the road accident problem using
mass accident data to find groups of road users, vehicles and road segments which would
be suitable targets for countermeasures. Large data files of Police accident reports and
Transport Accident Commission claims from accidents in Victoria during the 1980's were
obtained and merged. Four methods of analysis to meet the objective were developed and
applied to the data to address one or more key problem areas. Target groups for
countermeasures were identified and, where possible, accident and injury mechanisms were
suggested, and countermeasures to address these mechanisms were proposed.

Volume 1 covers the specific objectives, concepts, data, methods, conclusions and
recommendations of the project, as well as the Executive Summaries of the analysis
reports. The full analysis reports are given in Volume 2. The conclusions recommend that
new surveys of the on-road exposure of drivers, passengers, motorcyclists and pedestrians
be conducted in Victoria. It is also recommended that clustering methods be applied to
other key road trauma problem areas as a matter of priority, as these methods are able to
identify new target groups which are currently hidden.

KeyWords: Disclaimer:
(IRRD except when marked*) This report is disseminated
road trauma, accident data*, in the interests of inform-
data processing, injury, statistics, ation exchange. The views
data bank, countermeasures, expressed are those of the
exposure, safety, collision. author, and not necessarily those
of Monash University.

Reproduction of this page is authorised.

 VOLUME 1: METHODS AND CONCLUSIONS

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS viii

1. INTRODUCTION 1

2. GENERAL OBJECTIVE 1

2.1 The Road Trauma Chain 2

2.2 Countermeasures and Target Groups 2

3. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES 4

3.1 High Risk Groups 4

3.2 High Severity Groups 5
3.3 Accident Involvement Clusters 5
3.4 Severe Injury Clusters 6

4. DATA SOURCES 6

4.1 Police Accident Reports 6

4.2 TAC Claims 7
4.3 Merged Police Accident Reports and TAC Claims 7

5. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS 8

5.1 Background data for the 1988 Road Safety Strategy 8

5.2 Further analysis of 1982-86 data 8
5.3 Analysis of 1983-88 data 8
5.4 Specific analysis of 1987-88 data 8

6. OTHER RELATED ANALYSIS 9

7. METHODS USED IN MAIN ANALYSIS 9

7.1 High Risk Groups 9

7.2 High Severity Groups 9
7.3 Accident Involvement Clusters 9
7.4 Severe Injury Clusters 10

8. PRELIMINARY RESULTS 10

9. MAIN RESULTS 10

9.1 High Risk Groups 10

9.2 High Severity Groups 11
9.3 Accident Involvement Clusters 11
 9.4 Struck
Pedestrians
Articulated
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSIONS
COMMENTS
Executive
Motorcycles
Unrestrained
Cars
Speeding
Severe TrucksAND
Summaries
ON RECOMMENDATIONS
ANALYSIS
byOccupants
Drivers
Injury Heavy
Clusters Vehicles REPORTS 12
14
11
13 16
15
11 17
 ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS TO DEVELOP TARGET GROUPS
FOR COUNTERMEASURES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

An important issue which emerged during the development of the 1991 Road Safety
Strategy for Victoria was the need for new and better definitions of target groups for
countermeasures. Research to define new target groups has not kept up with the rapid
implementation of countermeasures. This report describes a major project which aimed to
further develop methods of identifying target groups, and to demonstrate those methods by
application to a number of key road safety problems.

The general objective was to disaggregate the road accident problem using mass accident
data to find groups of road users, vehicles and road segments which would be suitable
targets for countermeasures.

However this project was confined to identifying target groups and potential
countermeasures. It has not considered fully the range of problems in the implementation
of such countermeasures nor the expected benefits and costs. This would be a necessary
next step.

Successful development of a countermeasure requires a clear understanding of where it

can potentially break the chain of events leading to traumatic injury on the road. A
countermeasure is a measure which attempts to break the road trauma chain before one of
the undesirable steps can occur (eg. accident involvement, injury or death). A target
group for a countermeasure is a group of entities (humans, vehicles or roads) for which
the chain can be broken effectively and, desirably, cost-effectively.

Methods and Data

Mass accident data needs to be analysed to find target groups for countermeasures in a
way which maximizes the chances that the countermeasure will be cost-effective. The
study has developed general principles for analysis which meet this aim. These have led
to four specific methods of mass data analysis, depending on the nature of the road
trauma problem being addressed in the search for countermeasure target groups, namely:

High Risk Groups (groups with high rates of accident involvement per opportunity
to be involved)

High Severity Groups (groups with high rates of severe injury per accident
involvement)

Accident Involvement Clusters (groups involved in accidents who are homogeneous

on a number of factors relevant to countermeasure design and as large as possible)

Severe Injury Clusters (groups associated with severe injury who are homogeneous
 on a number of factors relevant to injury countermeasure design and as large as
possible).

Large data files of Police accident reports and Transport Accident Commission claims from
accidents in Victoria during the 1980's were obtained and merged. The four methods have
each been applied to the data to address one or more key problem areas. Target groups for
countermeasures were identified and, where possible, accident and injury mechanisms were
suggested, and countermeasures to address these mechanisms were proposed.

As each was completed, the analysis reports were sent to MUARC's baseline sponsors for
comments and immediate use, if appropriate. The final versions of these reports are
included in Volume 2 of the project report (available on request). Volume 1 covers the
methods and conclusions of the project, as well as including Executive Summaries of the
analysis reports. The major findings of the analysis reports are summarised below.

Articulated Trucks

Articulated trucks have a high risk of casualty accident involvement compared with other
types of trucks. An earlier study showed that in Australia, articulated trucks were involved
in 7.4 fatal accidents per 100 million kilometres travelled, compared with an involvement
rate of 1.7 for rigid trucks.

Semi-trailers and their drivers were substantially over-involved in a large number of

specific crash circumstances compared with rigid trucks. Many of these over-involvements
were potentially explainable by the truck size and load mass differences, and by the
different usage patterns of semi-trailers (relatively greater use on rural highways, in the
highest speed zones, and at night). However the following factors associated with
substantial over-involvements of semi-trailers are apparently not fully explainable by the
above differences between the two vehicle types:

crashes in the low speed zones in rural towns

at traffic lights and roundabouts in the low speed zones
running off straight roads in the low speed zones
side swipe and overtaking crashes
driver's seat belt not fitted or not worn if available
impacts to the front and left side of the semi-trailer in the low speed zones
impacts to the front corners of the semi-trailer in the high speed zones
death or serious injury to the semi-trailer driver from crashes in the high speed
zones.

These factors represent target groups for potential countermeasures to address the high
over-involvement rate of articulated trucks in casualty crashes. These countermeasures
could address the crash involvement of articulated trucks, and/or also the risk of severe
injury to the truck driver and other road users involved, as there appear to be high risk
factors operating in both stages which influence whether a casualty crash occurs.

Cars Struck by Heavy Vehicles

Occupants of passenger cars struck by heavy vehicles frequently sustain much higher
severity injuries compared with car occupants struck by other types of vehicle. Injured car
occupants are four to seven times more likely to be killed when the striking vehicle is a

ii
 heavy vehicle, compared with being struck by another car.

Higher injury severities were observed in the higher speed zones and when the heavy
vehicle was a semi-trailer. A large number of other environmental, crash, occupant, vehicle
and impact factors were also found to be related to higher levels of injury severity of the car
occupants. These factors define target groups for countermeasures which should be
designed to reduce injury severity, with priority given to severity reduction in the specific
circumstances and characteristics of the target group. The target groups also define
car/truck crash types and circumstances which should be priority areas for countermeasures
aimed at preventing collisions involving trucks.

An exponentially increasing relationship between injury severity and the truck to car mass
ratio was found. The analysis also found that nearly 40% of car occupants killed or
seriously injured in car/truck collisions resulted from front to front impacts. Some 60% of
these collisions involved impacts with the front corners of the truck, with more than half of
these corner impacts being to the right front corner.

A priority area for a countermeasure to reduce car occupant injury severity is improved
frontal structures of trucks, especially the front corners outside the frame side members and
especially the right front corner. There are developments in Europe to improve the front
corners of trucks by structures which absorb energy and also reduce over-ride of the struck
car in off-set front to front impacts. A study of these developments has recently been
completed by MUARC.

Motorcyclists

A number of target groups for the motorcycle accident problem were identified by finding
sub-groups which were over-involved in the following crash situations which previous
research had shown to be of high risk: novice motorcyclists, motorcyclists on curves, and
intoxicated motorcyclists. Further target groups were added by identifying sub-groups
which were associated with higher injury severity than the overall average for all injured
motorcyclists.

The target groups were reviewed collectively and mechanisms for the crashes or injuries
occurring were suggested. This in turn led to a number of potential countermeasures for
motorcyclist trauma, which included the following:

1. Random breath testing supported by publicity emphasising the focus on

motorcyclists, during the "alcohol times" (and slightly earlier) on weekends in
Spring and Summer, targetting riders of the larger and older motorcycles, and
including licence checks. The problem is greatest for motorcyclists operating in
residential areas of Melbourne and in rural areas outside towns.

2. A curve treatment program aimed at motorcycle accident blackspots on curves,

involving warning signs, improved skid resistance and super-elevation, increased
roadside recovery areas and the removal or shielding of fixed objects. As part of the
cost-benefit assessment of this proposal, an investigation is needed of the extent to
which such curves are also accident blackspots for other vehicles.

iii
3. Visible mobile police patrols and stationary enforcement of speeding and BAC
levels, located in the residential streets of the outer suburbs of Melbourne.

4. (a) Inclusion or increased emphasis in the motorcycle pre-licence testing manual

of the dangers due to the low conspicuity of motorcycles, and the need to
compensate for braking difficulties while gaining experience

(b) Adding a higher speed curve negotiation test to the skills test for a
Probationary motorcycle licence

5. A requirement that motorcycles be operated with front headlamps alight at all times.

Intoxicated Pedestrians

Previous research has shown that there is a 15 times higher risk of serious injury for
pedestrians who are intoxicated (ie. those with a BAC above 0.15) compared with those
who are sober.

Sub-groups of intoxicated pedestrians who were substantially over-involved in accidents

compared with sober pedestrians were identified as suitable targets for countermeasures.
The mechanisms explaining the over-involvement of each target group were suggested.
The target groups could be addressed through VIC ROAD's existing Pedestrian Safety
Program. The focus of each of the three program strategies aimed at intoxicated
pedestrians should include:

Strategy 1: To prevent pedestrians reaching high blood alcohol levels

drinkers who start early in the night, consume a relatively large amount of alcohol,
and finish their drinking relatively early (before Midnight)
drinkers who start drinking at lunchtime or during the afternoon
drinkers on weekends
drinkers on Fridays in the Melbourne suburbs
adults aged between 30 and 60 drinking during the day
adults aged between 30 and 50 drinking at night in the inner Melbourne suburbs

Strategy 2: To prevent intoxicated pedestrian exposure

male drinkers in hotels and other licensed premises

public education messages in these venues emphasising the high risk of death if an
intoxicated pedestrian is struck by a vehicle, especially at the higher speeds travelled
in the outer suburbs

Strategy 3: To reduce intoxicated pedestrian risk

T-intersections in the inner Melbourne suburbs (treatment to be applicable during all

times of day, especially daytime)
roads in 75 kmIh speed zones (treatments such as pedestrian crossings, supported by
pedestrian fencing to encourage their use, and median refuges and improved
lighting, to assist the pedestrian to cross a wide road and improve their conspicuity
to drivers).

iv
Elderly Pedestrians

Elderly pedestrians aged 60 and above have a high rate of casualty accident involvement
which reaches three times the rate of younger adults for pedestrians aged in the mid-70's.
Injury severity also increases with age, with pedestrians aged 65 and above having
substantially higher rates of death or hospitalisation when injured in accidents.

Very few factors were found to be related to the over-involvement of the elderly
pedestrians. However, a large number of factors were found to be related to the injury
severity of pedestrians aged 65 and above who were killed or injured during the same
period. These factors define sub-groups of the elderly pedestrian accident problem which
should be target groups for countermeasures.

The target groups related to substantially higher injury severities were examined and
mechanisms to explain their accident involvement or high severity were suggested. The
target groups should be addressed through countermeasures in four general categories, with
the focus in each category being as follows:

Category 1: Education of elderly pedestrians

their poor conspicuity during darkness and dawn/dusk lighting conditions

pedestrians aged 75 and above should be particularly careful in avoiding accident
involvement because of their high injury susceptibility
difficulties for drivers to brake rapidly on wet roads, and their poor visibility during
raining conditions
additional care needed when crossing divided arterial roads in Melbourne at major
intersections
the higher risk of death when intoxicated if an elderly pedestrian is struck by a
vehicle
additional care needed when crossing to or from a tram

Category 2: Education of drivers

awareness of the poor conspicuity of elderly pedestrians during darkness and

dawn/dusk lighting conditions
difficulties in braking rapidly on wet roads
poor visibility during raining conditions
awareness of the unexpected presence of elderly pedestrians on roads in the
residential areas of Melbourne, and areas outside Melbourne
lack of awareness of elderly pedestrians to the presence of approaching vehicles,
especially when intoxicated
need to look out for elderly pedestrians at intersections in the residential areas of
Melbourne, especially at STOP signs

Category 3: Enforcement of driving offences

random breath testing to deter drink driving in the "alcohol times of the week",
especially on arterial roads
speed enforcement on divided arterial roads (especially in 75 km/h speed zones) in
Melbourne
speed enforcement on arterial roads in the vicinity of tram stops

v
Category 4: Road engineering

improved street lighting in the vicinity of places frequented by elderly pedestrians at

night
pedestrian crossings on divided arterial roads at locations frequented by elderly
pedestrians
pedestrian refuges at intersections in residential areas with STOP signs
speed warning signs on arterial roads in the vicinity of tram stops.

Speeding Drivers

Drivers involved in serious casualty accidents were categorised into three populations of
crashes considered likely to be speed related:

Drivers running off the road on curves (Population 1)

Drivers hitting another vehicle in the rear (Population 2)
Drivers involved in pedestrian accidents resulting in death or serious injury
(Population 3).

Eight large clusters of drivers were found within Population 1 and six large clusters for each
of both Populations 2 and Population 3. For each population, the corresponding clusters
together represented at least 70% of the total drivers involved in a speed related accident
type.

The drivers in Population 1 were involved in most of their accidents on rural roads (52%)
compared with the drivers in Populations 2 and 3 (12% and 6%, respectively). These two
populations of drivers were more frequently involved in accidents in the inner and middle
areas of the Melbourne Statistical Division (MSD). Population 1 drivers were also more
likely to be aged 18-25 (52%), have a BAC above zero (43%), to crash at night (55%) or on
wet roads (32%), and to drive older cars (48% more than ten years old) than the other
populations.

The largest cluster in Population 1, representing 21% of the total drivers running off the
road on curves, was :

mostly drivers with zero BAC

mostly during day time
mostly on weekdays
mostly on dry roads
more often female drivers than the population average
more often in middle MSD locations than average
more often drivers of small cars than average.

The largest cluster in Population 2, representing 31 % of drivers hitting another vehicle in

the rear, was:

only drivers with zero BAC

mostly during day time
mostly on weekdays
mostly on dry roads

vi
 more often driving a car less than 6 years older than the population average
more often in middle MSD locations than average.

The largest cluster in Population 3, representing 29% of drivers hitting pedestrians resulting
in death or serious injury, was :

only on dry roads

mostly in inner MSD locations
otherwise similar to the population in total.

Speed enforcement supported by mass media publicity, if focussed on the identified clusters
and aimed at deterring excessive speeding behaviour, would be expected to be effective.

Unrestrained Occupants

Occupants of cars and station wagons involved in crashes and considered by the recording
Police officer to be unrestrained were clustered into homogeneous groups to form the basis
of countermeasures. The occupants were clustered on the basis of their age, sex, and
seating position, and the time of day, day of week, speed zone and location of the crash.
The seven largest clusters covered 69% of the unrestrained occupants.

The total group of unrestrained occupants were 58% male and spanned all age groups with
39% aged 17 to 25. Drivers represented 41%, left front passengers 26% and rear
passengers 32% of the total. 61% crashed in speed zones up to 75 km/h, and 63% of their
crashes occurred in the Melbourne Statistical Division (MSD) while 28% occurred on the
open road in rural areas. Weekdays accounted for 62% of the unrestrained occupants, while
59% were involved in crashes during daytime.

The two largest clusters, which together covered 24% of the unrestrained occupants, were
both mostly drivers crashing in speed zones up to 75 km/h, but they differed in other
characteristics. The largest cluster mostly crashed at night and more often at weekends than
the total group of unrestrained occupants. The second largest cluster were mostly male
occupants and mostly crashed during the day. In other respects, these two clusters
resembled the total group of unrestrained occupants.

The other five identified clusters each covered 8-10% of the unrestrained occupants. Each
differed from the total group in relatively unique ways, but the clusters were homogeneous
in themselves.

Each of these clusters provide suitable targets for integrated enforcement and publicity
aimed at encouraging restraint use. Countermeasures which aim at reducing the impact
severity or preventing the crash involvements of each of the cluster groups should also be
considered.

vii
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The preliminary analyses for this project were carried out by Alan Drummond, Senior
Research Fellow at MUARC, during 1987-90. The author is indebted to Alan for initiating
the project, developing some of the ideas at a conceptual level, and for sharing them with
him.

Mrs Uma Rao, formerly Manager Accident Studies at VIC ROADS, and Mr David
Attwood, Principal Statistician at the Transport Accident Commission (TAC), provided the
data files of Police Accident Reports and TAC injury compensation claims on which the
analyses for this project were based. Ms Cheryl Hamill, formerly of VIC ROADS, and Mr
Foong Chee Wai, formerly of MUARC, developed and implemented the procedures for
merging the Police Accident Reports and TAC claims.

Terry Mach and Dina Neiger, research assistants at MUARC, provided excellent support in
carrying out the large number of analyses for the main part of the project. They also
prepared the graphical presentations in the analysis reports and contributed to the drafting
of the two reports based on cluster analysis. However any errors in the interpretation of
their analyses are solely the responsibility of the author.

Dr Peter Vulcan, Director of MUARC, provided very valuable comments on the analysis
reports as they evolved in content, style and format. Mr Ray Taylor, Director Accident
Prevention of the TAC, also provided extensive comments on the analysis reports sent to
the Centre's sponsors and was instrumental in improving their final presentation.

viii
 ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS TO DEVELOP TARGET GROUPS
FOR COUNTERMEASURES

1. INTRODUCTION

An important issue which emerged during the development of the 1991 Road Safety
Strategy for Victoria was the need for new and better definitions of target groups for
countermeasures. Countermeasures may be categorized in various ways (eg. the "Road
UserNehiclelRoad System" and the "EngineeringlEnforcement/Education/Encouragement"
categorisations), but all are characterized by being focussed on a target group representing a
component of the total problem, rather than attempting to address the problem as a whole.

Research to define new target groups has not kept up with the rapid implementation of
countermeasures. In particular, the research has tended to focus only on finding target
groups with high rates of accident involvement or severe injury outcome. It has not always
been recognised that:

finding a target group with a high rate is not a sufficient condition for a successful
countermeasure; the countermeasure must also be economically, socially and
politically feasible

target groups for countermeasures may also lie among those groups which do not
have unusually high rates; however in this situation the countermeasure has reduced
chance of being effective and probably must have broad coverage to be
economically justifiable.

The Road Safety Strategy Facts Document (VIC ROADS 1990), produced to support
development of the 1991 Road Safety Strategy, was an attempt to present readily available
information on target groups, but a need to extend this data further was identified. This was
because the Facts Document reflected past research and the already known high risk groups,
which in turn had already been the target groups of existing countermeasures in most cases.

This report describes a major project which aimed to further develop methods of identifying
target groups for countermeasures, and to demonstrate those methods by application to a
number of key road safety problems. Specific proposals for countermeasures which may be
applied to the identified target groups were also developed were possible.

2. GENERAL OBJECTIVE

The general objective was to disaggregate the road accident problem using mass accident
data to find groups of road users, vehicles and road segments which would be suitable
targets for countermeasures.

Before developing methods to achieve this objective, there was a need to review the general
nature of the process leading to road trauma and the development of successful
countermeasures to this process.
2.1 The Road Trauma Chain

Successful development of a countermeasure requires a clear understanding of where it

can potentially break the chain of events leading to traumatic injury on the road. A
conceptual model of the road trauma chain is shown in Figures 1 and 2. The individual
entities which participate in the chain can be humans, vehicles or road segments, each of
which may be classified into a group of like elements to form a countermeasure target, if
appropriate.

Associated with various steps or links in the chain are probabilities or risks of one or
more steps. In Figure 1, four different risks of crash involvement are shown, depending
on the starting point from where the risk is measured. The existence or participation of
an entity at a starting point is known as "exposure to risk". The risk can be estimated by
dividing the number of crash involvements by the number of "exposures"; this is called
the crash involvement rate and is a random variable with the true risk as its mean. Thus
the public health risk (D) of road crash involvement is estimated by the total number of
persons involved in crashes per annum divided by the population. At the other extreme,
for example, the pedestrian risk (A) of accident involvement per exposure may be
estimated by the number of pedestrian involvements divided by the number of road
crossings made.

In Figure 2, the risks associated with the steps after the crash has occurred are shown.
For the injury risks the starting point is crash involvement and this event represents "crash
exposure" to injury risk. Injury risk is estimated by the injury rate, which is the number
of persons killed or injured divided by the number involved in crashes. Another starting
point in Figure 2 is injury and here the risk is associated with severe injury or death,
reflecting the injury severity of the injury or injuries. The exposure to this risk is called
"injury exposure", ie. the exposure to severe injury, if a person is injured. Thus the
injury severity (A) is estimated by the injury severity rate, defined as the number of
persons severely injured or killed divided by the number of persons injured in crashes. In
some mass crash data systems, the event of being injured is the entry criterion for a
person to be recorded (this is essentially the case for Police reported accidents in
Victoria); thus only injury severity can be estimated and not injury risk.

2.2 Countermeasures and Target Groups

A countermeasure is a measure which attempts to break the road trauma chain before one
of the undesirable steps can occur (eg. crash involvement, injury or death). A target
group for a countermeasure is a group of entities (humans, vehicles or roads) for which
the chain can be broken effectively and, desirably, cost-effectively.

In discussing broad types of countermeasures, a distinction is drawn between the two

major mechanisms which separately contribute to the road crash problem:

crash involvement - Figure 1

crash severity (death or injury) - Figure 2.

Thus a countermeasure may address only one of these mechanisms (occasionally both) and

2
 FIGURE!

O
I I..
-
~ ~ I---e Entities
f--
involvement
to crashes
build-up
.mass
RISK use
for .tlme
eligibleEnergy
.Iicensed
,registered
.roads
.speed
RISK (B) "TRANSPORT RISK"
I(8)
Exposure
RoadTO
I RISKROAD
THE
TO
,distance
opened
Crash
EXPOSURE EXPOSURE (A) TRAUMA
EXPOSURE
TO
L

•
CHAIN
RISK (A)
I

(1. PRE-CRASH)
E

I
SEVERE
Severe
i----I
I -
INJURY RISK I--
THE• ROAD
transfer
dissipation
Energy
Energy
INJURY SEVERITY (A)• Death
Injury
(2. CRASH and POST -CRASH)
injury
FIGURE 2

TRAUMA INJURY SEVERITY (B)

I CHAIN
EXPOSURE
I INJURY
SEVERE
INJURY
TO (continued)
•

CRASH
the target group must be chosen accordingly. A target group in the crash involvement
area may not be a suitable target group for crash severity reduction.

Most road crash countermeasures are expensive in terms of implementation/operating

costs, social and political costs, and the opportunity costs of other public investment
foregone. Thus it is essential that countermeasure target groups be sought and found in a
way that maximizes the chances that an implemented countermeasure returns benefits
(crash loss reduction) which exceed its costs.

One approach to developing a countermeasure is to find a target group with an unusually

high risk of a particular step in the road trauma chain. The countermeasure ideally should
aim at that step; however one aimed at an earlier step may be still acceptable if the high
risk of the later step exists. Another approach to countermeasure development is to seek a
countermeasure with a low implementation cost, or a large target group which can have a
single countermeasure applied to it and thus keep the unit cost of the measure low. In
either case the effectiveness of the measure would not need to be high and the risk
associated with the step at which it is aimed may be only low.

Mass crash data needs to be analysed to find target groups for countermeasures in a way
which maximizes the chances that the countermeasure (as yet unspecified) will be cost-
effective. In general terms the chances are maximized if:

(a) the target group has a higher than average risk of crash involvement, or of severe
injury when involved, since then the probability of being able to design an
effective countermeasure would be high

because at the very least the countermeasure could aim to reduce the risk of
the target group to the average level

alternatively, the high risk may be justification for a countermeasure which

aims to restrict the exposure of the target group

or

(b) the target group is sufficiently large and homogeneous that a single
countermeasure could be applied to the whole group, thus distributing all or some
of the costs more widely and requiring a lower level of effectiveness per target
group member for the countermeasure to be cost-beneficial

however the target group may not have an unusually high risk and the
countermeasure would need to reduce the risk to a below average level to
be effective

in addition, a countermeasure which restricts exposure may be difficult to

justify

or

3
(c) both (a) and (b) apply (however most of the large target groups that satisfy both
conditions have probably already been found, ego intoxicated drivers, unrestrained
passengers) .

Approaches (a) and (b) lead to the following specific objectives for the project.

3. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

To find groups of road users, vehicles and road segments in the mass accident data with the
following properties:

3.1 High Risk Groups

Groups with high rates of accident involvement per opportunity to be involved.

This could be measured by:

involvement rates per "exposure" (kilometres or time travelled, intersection

conflicts, roads crossed),

involvement rates per "population" (drivers licensed, vehicles registered,

human population),

over-involvement (compared with other groups) in an accident type with a

known high risk per exposure (eg. alcohol-related accidents), since this
would imply either:

that the target group has a relatively high level of exposure to

circumstances which lead to the accident type (eg. drunk driving), or

that the target group has a higher level of accident risk when exposed
to the specific circumstances, compared with other groups

high representation among the group involved in an accident type with a

known high risk per exposure, since this would suggest that the target group
has essentially the same high risk.

The first two measures require compatible data from "exposure" and "population"
data sources, whereas the latter measures are based on mass accident data alone.

The high risk accident types in which over-involvement or high representation of

the target groups should be sought are listed below (high risk type listed first
followed by the complement type for making the comparison to establish over-
representation):

intoxicated v. sober drivers

speeding drivers v. not speeding drivers, defined by involvement in the
following accident types:
curved road v. straight road run-off-road accidents
hitting v. being hit in rear end accidents
fatal v. injury pedestrian accidents

4
 probationary v. fully licensed drivers
intoxicated v. sober adult pedestrians
young v. adult pedestrians
elderly v. adult pedestrians
curved v. straight road motorcycle accidents
learner/probationary v. fully licensed motorcyclists
intoxicated v. sober motorcyclists
night v. day bicyclists
arterial v. non-arterial road bicyclists
articulated v. rigid trucks
intersections v. mid-blocks in urban areas
curved v. straight segments of rural highways

3.2 High Severity Groups

Groups with high rates of severe injury per accident involvement. Suitable
measures would be:

severe injury (death or hospitalisation) rates per accident involvement,

fatality rates per involvement (these may be subject to considerable chance

fluctuation with small groups),

injury rates per involvement for specific severe (life-threatening) injuries.

Sub-groups which are over-involved or highly represented in severe injury outcome

should be sought initially among those groups with known high injury severity rates
per involvement, such as:

unrestrained vehicle occupants

occupants of cars struck in the side
elderly pedestrians
motorcyclists
bicyclists without helmets
bicyclists in lOOkmh zones
small car occupants
cars struck by trucks
fixed roadside objects

3.3 Accident InvolvementClusters

Groups involved in accidents who are homogeneous on a number of factors relevant

to countermeasure design (eg. time, location, road user type and age) and as large as
possible. Priority should be given to seeking these sub-groups within large
accident-involved groups known to have high risk per exposure, followed by a focus
on other large accident-involved groups. The priority would be to find sub-groups
within:

intoxicated drivers

5
 excessively speeding drivers (defined by involvement in speed-related
accident types)
inexperienced drivers
intoxicated pedestrians
young pedestrians
elderly pedestrians
motorcyclists on curves
inexperienced motorcyclists
intoxicated motorcyclists
bicyclists at night
bicyclists on arterial roads
articulated trucks
urban intersections
rural curved segments

3.4 Severe Injury Clusters

Groups associated with severe injury who are homogeneous on a number of factors
relevant to injury countermeasure design (eg. restraint or helmet use, seating
position, person age, vehicle type, location) and as large as possible. Priority should
be given to seeking sub-groups within those large severely-injured groups who have
high injury severity rates per involvement, such as:

unrestrained vehicle occupants

occupants of cars struck in the side
elderly pedestrians
motorcyclists
bicyclists without helmets
bicyclists in 100 kmh zones
small car occupants
cars struck by trucks
fixed roadside objects

Within these priority groups there is also advantage in seeking sub-groups which are
homogeneous on factors relevant to accident involvement countermeasure design,
since it may transpire that an injury countermeasure is not feasible and an
involvement countermeasure must be sought instead.

4. DA TA SOURCES

4.1 Police Accident Reports

Police reports on casualty accidents in Victoria were used for finding high risk
groups and accident involvement clusters, however Police reports on property
damage accidents were not be suitable for this purpose because of uncertainties
about reasons for reporting. This means, however, that the findings relate to
casualty accident risk and involvement, rather than to accidents in general.

Casualty accident reports include a coarse scale of injury severity (killed/serious

injury/minor injury) which could be used for defining severe injury groups. Finer

6
 and probably more accurate measures of injury severity were available from
Transport Accident Commission (TAC) claims (see section 4.2).

Three special files of data on persons involved in Police reported casualty accidents
were created for this study. The files covered persons killed or injured, plus drivers
involved casualty accidents, for each of the following years:

1982-86 (109,795 persons)

1983-88 (230,918 persons)

1984-89 (297,393 persons)

The latter file covers casualties and casualty accidents defined by the new injury
scale adopted by the Police in 1989, and applied retrospectively to the 1984-88 data.

The files were also made available to and used by the Road Safety Division of VIC
ROADS, as well as by other projects at MUARC. Further details of these and other
files used in the project are available from the author.

4.2 TAC Claims

TAC claims data files include a number of factors related to injury countermeasures
and hence could be used for finding high severity groups and severe injury clusters.

A file of data on claims made during the period July 1978 to June 1988 by
occupants of post-1975 cars and station wagons (72,789 persons) was provided by
the TAC. The focus was on occupants of post-1981 vehicles (17,969 persons)
because the same data was analysed in a study of passenger car safety for the
Federal Office of Road Safety (Fildes et al1991).

4.3 Merged PoliceAccident Reports and TAC Claims

A file of TAC claims by occupants of post-1981 cars and station wagons merged
with Police accident report data on persons involved in the same accident was
created for crashes in the period 1983 to June 1988 (12,468 persons). This file
enhances TAC claims with important factors related to injury countermeasures such
as restraint use, speed zone and type of other vehicle or fixed object struck.

The file was further merged with Police report data on other persons in the same
vehicle and in other vehicles in the same accident, to allow vehicle-based and
accident-based analysis of factors related to injury risk and injury severity. These
files covered 18466 vehicles and an estimated 9300 accidents, respectively.

7
5. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS

5.1 Background data for the 1988Road Safety Strategy

Analysis of data on persons involved in casualty accidents during 1982-86 was

carried out to provide data to support countermeasure proposals which arose from a
"brain-storming" session within the Road Traffic Authority during 1988. This
analysis was driven by the proposals current at the time, and not by a search for new
target groups. Some of the results related to over-involvement in accident types
with known high risk per exposure.

5.2 Further analysis of 1982-86data

Analysis of factors associated with over-involvement in the drunk (BAC > 0.05)
road user group has been carried out for drivers, vehicle occupants, pedestrians,
motorcyclists and bicyclists involved in casualty accidents during 1982-86. The
findings have been summarized for drivers (Appendix Al in Volume 2). These
findings indicated the viability of the method of seeking over-involvement in an
accident type with known high risk per exposure as a way of identifying high risk
groups.

The same analysis compared road users involved in serious casualty accidents (ie.
involving death or hospitalisation) with those involved in all casualty accidents.
These comparisons indicated factors associated with higher injury severity. The
comparisons have been performed for each road user group as a whole, and the
factors summarized for drivers (Appendix A2 in Volume 2).

5.3 Analysisof 1983-88data

Persons involved in casualty accidents during 1983-88 were analysed by road user
type, severity of injury, location of accident and time of week related to alcohol
involvement. These analyses provided useful reference data as a basis for later
analysis of the same data. However, they were not specifically aimed at identifying
target groups for countermeasures.

5.4 Specificanalysis of 1987-88data

Two specific analyses have been performed to examine factors associated with over-
involvement in the speeding driver and drunk driver groups during 1987-88. The
analyses compared:

speeding drivers v. not speeding drivers, defined by involvement in the

following accident types:
curved road v. straight road run-off-road accidents
hitting v. being hit in rear end accidents
fatal v. injury pedestrian accidents (Appendix A3 in Volume 2)

sober v. drunk v. very drunk serious driver casualties (Appendix A4 in

Volume 2).

8
6. OTHER RELATED ANALYSIS

The draft (May 1990) Road Safety Strategy Facts Document produced by VIe ROADS to
support the development of the 1991 Road Safety Strategy contains data on a range of high
risk and high severity groups, defined by a single factor in most cases (eg. drink drivers,
unrestrained occupants). While this document was produced with similar objectives to the
present study, it was constrained by readily available data and existing analysis. The
document was a useful basis for a new impetus to the present study, by indicating at a gross
level the high risk groups and high severity groups which should be priority areas for
further disaggregation.

The document also included information on "high risk factors" and "high severity factors"
which appeared to represent explanations for groups appearing as high risk or high severity,
respectively. In general these factors were based on detailed prior surveys of characteristics
of each such group, defined in earlier studies (eg. speeding drivers), and not on mass
accident data.

The final Road Safety Strategy Facts Document (VIe ROADS 1990) was similar to the
draft except for the omission of some information on high severity groups.

7. METHODSUSEDIN MAINANALYSIS

The methods used in the main analyses conducted in this project followed the four specific
objectives described in section 3 and are outlined below. Each method was applied to one
or more of the key problem areas listed under the corresponding specific objective.

7.1 High Risk Groups

As expected, it was not possible to disaggregate accident involvement rates per

"exposure" or per "population" to a greater degree than has been previously done
because of difficulties in obtaining disaggregated denominator data.

Hence the method was confined to seeking accident groups (described by one factor
at a time initially) which are over-involved or highly represented in accident types
with a known high risk, using two-way contingency table analysis. Where more
than one factor was identified, and where resources permitted, multi-way
contingency table analysis was used to test their independence.

7.2 High Severity Groups

Using a method similar to 7.1, groups involved in casualty accidents which are over-
involved or highly represented in severe injury outcome were sought, initially based
on one factor at a time. Where resources permitted, multi-way contingency table
analysis was used to test the independence of multiple factors identified in this way.

7.3 Accident InvolvementClusters

This method uses cluster analysis to find homogeneous groups of casualty accident
involvees, treating road users, vehicles and road segments in turn as the entities to
be clustered. These clusters were sought initially within one of the high risk groups

9
 listed in 3.3 above, namely speeding drivers.

7.4 Severe Injury Clusters

In this method, road users, vehicles and road segments associated with severe injury
outcome are classified into homogeneous groups using cluster analysis. Priority was
given to seeking clusters within one of the high severity groups listed in 3.4 above,
namely unrestrained vehicle occupants.

8. PRELIMINARYRESULTS

During the course of the project a number of short reports on specific analyses of high risk
and/or high severity groups have been prepared. These represent interim reports from the
project. In general, the specific topic of each report reflects an issue of concern at the time
and the report may have been prepared in response to a special request for information.
These reports have been included in the Appendix of Volume 2.

9. MAIN RESULTS

In mid-l990 the project was reviewed and given the new direction described in this report.
As each analysis using the methods described in section 7 was completed for specific
problem areas, a report was produced and sent to MUARC's baseline sponsors for
comments (these are summarised in section 10) and immediate use, if appropriate. The
comments received on each analysis report influenced their final presentation and the
methods and presentation used in subsequent reports.

The analysis reports are included in Volume 2 of this project report and their Executive
Summaries are included in the Appendix of Volume 1 (this document). The analysis
reports cover the following problem areas (the heading indicates the analysis method used
to determine target groups for countermeasures to the specific problem).

9.1 High Risk Groups

9.1.1 Articulated Trucks

9.1.2 Novice Motorcyclists

9.1.3 Motorcyclists on Curves

9.1.4 Intoxicated Motorcyclists

9.1.5 Intoxicated Pedestrians

9.1.6 Elderly Pedestrians (combined with 9.2.3)

10
9.2 High Severity Groups

9.2.1 Cars Struck by Heavy Vehicles

9.2.2 Motorcyclists

9.2.3 Elderly Pedestrians (combined with 9.1.6)

9.3 Accident InvolvementClusters

9.3.1 Speeding Drivers

9.4 SevereInjury Clusters

9.4.1 Unrestrained Occupants

9.5 ExecutiveSummaries

The Appendix includes an Executive Summary for the above analysis reports
individually, with the exception of those reports related to motorcyclists. In these
four cases, their results were assimilated in one summary report which selected a
sub-set of target groups (based on substantial over-involvement or greater severity),
suggested accident and injury mechanisms for related groups, and proposed a list of
countermeasures to address these mechanisms. The procedures developed to evolve
these countermeasure proposals were also used in subsequent individual analysis
reports.

10. COMMENTSON ANALYSISREPORTS

Comments on each analysis report were received from one or more of MUARC's baseline
sponsors. The suggestions relating to editorial matters and presentation issues have been
incorporated in the final versions in Volume 2 when appropriate and wherever possible.
The following comments were generally more fundamental in nature and raised issues
regarding the feasibility of identifying viable target groups and the likelihood of being able
to develop cost-effective countermeasures. The comments and the response are listed under
the analysis area in which they arose.

10.1 Articulated Trucks

The major issue of concern about this analysis which measured over-involvements
of semi-trailers by comparing them with rigid trucks was that the two types of truck
have quite different road usage patterns and different sizes and load masses.
Splitting the crashes analysed into two groups of speed zones at the accident
location did not appear to be an adequate way of controlling the usage pattern
differences. This issue was acknowledged and the executive summary of the
analysis report focussed on the factors associated with over-involvements which
were apparently not fully explainable by the differences in use, size or load mass.

No other type of road vehicle suitable for making comparisons with semi-trailers is
apparent. In this situation there is a strong case for collecting exposure data

11
 (measured, say, in kilometres travelled) for articulated trucks, in such a way that it
can be directly compared with data on their accident involvements and allow
accident involvement rates to be calculated for various sub-groups. This would
allow sub-groups with high risks of accident involvement to be identified in a more
direct way than that used in the analysis described in the report.

10.2 Cars Struck by Heavy Vehicles

Most commentators were comfortable with the measure of injury severity used in
the analysis (ie. percentage of injured car occupants who were killed or seriously
injured), and recognised that it did not cover the risk of injury per se. The risk of
severe injury to injured occupants appears to be a measure which discriminates
target groups warranting priority attention. However a need was seen for
supplementary information on the size of each target group identified as having high
injury severity. This was provided by giving the number of injured occupants (in
the target group) used as the basis of the injury severity measure, previously found
to be higher than the average injury severity for car occupants in total. The amount
by which the target group injury severity exceeds the average, and the size of the
group, are fundamental items of data for the calculation of the likely cost-
effectiveness of a proposed countermeasure to the severe injury problem of the
group.

It was commented that the monotonically increasing relationship found between

injury severity and the truck to car mass ratio, particularly in urban (low speed zone)
crashes, is consistent with findings in the USA.

10.3 Motorcyclists

Comments were provided on the four analysis reports related to motorcyclists

collectively (ie. 9.1.2 to 9.1.4 and 9.2.2 in section 9 above). The analyses sought
sub-groups of the motorcyclist trauma problem with high risk of crash involvement
or high injury severity.

The major comment made on these analysis reports was that the methods tend to
find a large number of small groups, and that there is a danger that resources for
countermeasures may be attracted to small issues (this comment reflected a
preference for a relatively small number of countermeasures aimed at large target
groups). It was also noted that the size of the target group appeared to be inversely
related to its extent of over-involvement or the relative amount by which its injury
severity exceeds the average.

In response to the above comment, methods were developed to select and

amalgamate target groups so that they could be addressed cost-effectively by
relatively few countermeasures. In doing this, the four problem areas covered by
the analysis reports were considered collectively. The process is described in the
report "Development of Countermeasures to Motorcyclist Trauma" which forms the
executive summary of all four analysis reports (see Appendix). In essence, a sub-set
of target groups were initially selected on the basis of being substantially over-
involved or substantially more severe, and more than a minimum size, then
mechanisms for the crashes or injuries occurring in related target groups were

12
 suggested, and finally a relatively small number of specific countermeasures to
address those mechanisms were proposed.

A further comment related to the appropriateness of the comparison groups of

motorcyclists used for assessing the over-involvement of sub-groups of the three
motorcyclist problem areas previously identified as high risk (ie. novice
motorcyclists, motorcyclists on curves, and intoxicated motorcyclists). While the
comparison groups used were questioned, the concerns were not as strong as that
felt about the use of rigid trucks as a comparison group for semi-trailers. However,
once again there is a case for collecting relevant exposure data for motorcyclists
(ideally this should include breath alcohol readings, for specific comparison with
blood alcohol test results from killed and hospitalised motorcyclists). This would
allow accident involvement rates to be calculated for various sub-groups to identify
those with high risk in a more direct way.

10.4 Pedestrians

Comments were also provided collectively on the two analysis reports related to
pedestrians (ie. 9.1.5 and 9.1.6/9.2.3 in section 9 above). These analyses sought
sub-groups with high risks of accident involvement among intoxicated and elderly
pedestrians, plus sub-groups with high injury severity among the elderly.

Regarding the over-involvements of elderly pedestrians, there was concern that

relatively few factors emerged and that these were readily explainable by
demographic and road use characteristics of the elderly population. It was
suggested that other factors, not measured in mass accident data, may offer causal
explanations. In contrast, a large number of factors available in the data appeared to
be related to the injury severity of the elderly. However there appears to be a limit
to which countermeasures can be designed to reduce injury severity (eg. by reducing
speeds of the impacting vehicles), and there is a problem with focussing an accident
involvement countermeasure on a target group which has high injury severity but
usually not a high accident risk compared with elderly pedestrians overall. This is
because the countermeasure must aim at reducing an accident risk which is already
at an average level (or perhaps already low) and hence may not be feasible and may
lack credibility.

Regarding intoxicated pedestrians, the comments noted that a number of over-

involvements associated with time of day and day of week could be readily
explained by known alcohol consumption patterns. Subsequent analysis in the
report addressed this issue by splitting the pedestrian accidents into those occurring
at night (after 6 pm to 6 am) and during the day. This controlled differences in
alcohol consumption patterns in a general sense, and revealed that there were
important differences between intoxicated and sober pedestrians by hour of the day
(especially at night) which went beyond the general pattern.

The comments noted the high level of over-involvement of intoxicated pedestrians

at T-intersections in the inner Melbourne suburbs. These locations represented a
substantial proportion of their accidents, but the factors behind the increased risk at
such intersections are not apparent. A special investigation of this issue was
suggested.

13
 Another comment noted that the proposed environmental treatments aimed at
reducing the risk of accident involvement of pedestrians when they were already
intoxicated (rather than aiming to prevent their intoxication), could also have
substantial benefits for non-intoxicated pedestrians and hence are more likely to be
cost-beneficial. This illustrates that some countermeasures aimed at specific target
groups can have more general benefits and hence should be given higher priority.

10.5 Speeding Drivers

The method sought sub-groups of "speeding" drivers who were as similar as

possible, rather than seeking sub-groups who were over-involved in speed-related
accidents (this latter approach had been covered in the preliminary analysis; see
Appendix A3 in Volume 2). It was commented that the methods have highlighted
characteristics of target groups for the speeding driver problem which were
previously hidden, and hence will be valuable for assisting educational and
enforcement countermeasure development.

It was also noted that the analysis had not been able to consider the blood alcohol
level of drivers in one of the major groups of drivers considered likely to have been
speeding, ie. those involved in pedestrian accidents resulting in death or serious
injury. This was because, in this type of accident, most drivers were not injured and
hence a blood alcohol test was seldom taken at hospital. However, the blood
alcohol level of drivers in these accidents is likely to be a key causal factor as well
as their speed behaviour. This factor should be examined in a special investigation
by considering data on the drivers' intoxication level from various sources such as
preliminary and evidentiary breath tests, and the police officer's judgement of driver
impairment, if available.

10.6 Unrestrained Occupants

The method focussed on unrestrained occupants because of their high injury severity
in general, and sought sub-groups who were as similar as possible but not
necessarily having particularly severe injuries. It was considered that, as for
speeding drivers, the method highlighted characteristics of target groups of
unrestrained occupants which had been hidden previously.

While the seven target groups identified were useful for countermeasure
development, it was suggested that some of these could be combined leaving four
target groups. This is not inconsistent with the general clustering approach used in
the analysis; the question is how similar the group members need to be to be useful
as a countermeasure target, versus maximizing the size of the group to be addressed
by the countermeasure. Resolving this question is one for the countermeasure
developer; the analysis report provides sufficient information to allow a variety of
answers to be followed.

Another comment was that an important variable in defining the sub-groups may
have been the blood alcohol level of the unrestrained occupant, since intoxicated
occupants were considered less likely to wear available restraints in some cases and
situations. Unfortunately the data file used for this analysis (the merged file of

14
 Police accident reports and TAC claims) did not contain blood or breath test results.
A new analysis making use of the blood alcohol results available in the Police
accident report files held by VIe ROADS could address this issue.

11. DISCUSSION

The four methods of accident data analysis displayed a range of capabilities in meeting the
general objective of finding target groups for countermeasures.

The most common method used when accident data is analysed alone is illustrated by the
High Risk Groups approach used in the six corresponding analysis reports. While the
intention was to find sub-groups with particularly high rates of accident involvement, the
absence of exposure data for use as a denominator in such rates meant that the method was
constrained to seeking factors which were "over-involved" relative to a comparison group
which it was assumed had similar exposure patterns as the focus group. The assumption of
similar exposure patterns was not a good one for rigid trucks (as a comparison group for
semi-trailers) and was not ideal for the comparison groups used for the motorcyclist and
pedestrian analyses.

It is clear that the availability of exposure data is critical for definite conclusions unless the
comparison group is a very good one, ie. it closely resembles the focus group on a range of
road use characteristics. The exposure data needs to be "matched" with the accident data in
terms of the nature and specific values of each factor to be studied, ego blood alcohol levels
for the accident-involved and the exposed need to be collected in compatible ways. Driver
exposure surveys using observational and interview techniques (necessary to measure some
key factors) have not been conducted in Victoria since 1989 and the most recent
motorcyclist and pedestrian surveys were even earlier. The exception is bicyclist exposure,
which has been measured in Melbourne as recently as May/June 1992 (Finch et alI992).
With the large social changes in recent years due to the economic recession in Victoria,
there is a need for more recent surveys of exposure of drivers (and their passengers),
motorcyclists and pedestrians.

The High Severity Groups method, when applied to Police casualty accident reports in
Victoria, was constrained to measuring the injury severity of injured road users rather than
their risk of (severe) injury when involved in an accident. This was because the Police
reports do not cover all uninjured persons involved in accidents defined by some criterion
other than injury, ego resulting in a vehicle being towed away, as in New South Wales'
Police reports. Nevertheless the injury severity measure used was able to define target
groups of the severely injured who appeared to have high risks of severe injury when
involved in an accident, and thus were suitable for the application of countermeasures
aimed at those risks.

When initially applied to the mass accident data, both the High Risk Groups method (using
comparative over-involvements) and the High Severity Groups method tended to find a
large number of relatively small target groups for countermeasures. The project
subsequently developed procedures for selecting and amalgamating target groups, so that
countermeasures could be defined with a broader coverage. While the number of target
groups was reduced, the proposed countermeasures were still very specific in their focus,
which was usually defined by a number of factors.

15
This could be a reflection of the nature of countermeasures needed to address the current
road trauma problem in Victoria. While there has been considerable success in reducing
road trauma during recent decades with a number of "silver bullets" (eg. seat belt wearing
legislation, random breath testing, and the speed camera program) which have effectively
addressed large parts of the problem, there may now be a need for a larger number of
measures aimed at specific targets. These "bronze pellets" should be no less effective in
reducing road trauma in their target group, but they need to be focussed on a specific and
well-defined problem to achieve the high levels of effectiveness of the "silver bullets", and
there needs to be many more of them. While highly desirable if they can be found, "silver
bullets" have become much harder to design or are very expensive operationally, socially or
politically.

The other two methods of analysis applied to the mass accident data (ie. Accident
Involvement Clusters and Severe Injury Clusters) were designed to find target groups which
are as large as possible, but also similar across a number of factors relevant to the
countermeasure type which might be applied. While in theory these methods could be
applied to any part of the road trauma problem, in this project the methods were applied,
respectively, to an area considered to have high accident risk (ie. speeding drivers) and an
area with known high injury severity (ie. unrestrained occupants). This ensured that the
target groups defined by the analysis methods would also represent opportunities for
improvement by traditional countermeasures aimed at reducing risk or injury severity. The
comments received emphasised that the analysis methods were successful in identifying
new target groups which were previously hidden. There would probably be value in
applying the same methods appropriately to other problem areas listed in sections 3.3 and
3.4.

12. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The project has developed four methods of mass accident data analysis to find target groups
for countermeasures, and has demonstrated those methods by application to a number of
key road safety problems. It is possible to suggest accident or injury mechanisms for
selected target groups, and to propose countermeasures to address those mechanisms which
are likely to be cost-effective. Thus a systematic set of procedures now exists which could
be further applied to other road trauma problem areas, using an appropriate analysis method
reflecting the nature of the problem. This would assist in producing the large number of
countermeasures each aimed at specific targets which will be required to ensure progress in
road safety in Victoria in the future.

A weakness with the method for finding target groups with high accident involvement rates
is its reliance on finding a comparison group with similar exposure patterns. This problem
could be overcome if appropriate exposure data was available to act as the denominator in
directly calculated involvement rates. It is recommended that new surveys of the on-road
exposure of drivers, passengers, motorcyclists and pedestrians be conducted in Victoria to
complement recent surveys of bicyclist exposure.

Clustering methods were used to find target groups which are as large as possible but also
similar across a range of factors relevant to countermeasures which could be applied. The
methods identified new target groups which were previously hidden. It is recommended
that the methods be applied to other key road trauma problem areas as a matter of priority.

16
REFERENCES

FILDES, BN, LANE, JC, LENARD, J, and VULCAN, AP (1991), "Passenger Cars and
Occupant Injury". Report CR 95, Federal Office of Road Safety, Canberra.

FINCH, CF, HEIMAN, L, and NEIGER, D (1992), "Bicycle Use and Helmet Wearing
Rates in Melbourne During 1991 and 1992 Compared With 1987/88 and 1990: The
Influence of the Helmet Wearing Law". Project Report, Monash University Accident
Research Centre.

VIC ROADS (1990), "Road Safety Strategy Facts Document" (in four parts). Road Safety
Division, VIC ROADS, Victoria.

17
 I
.1
 APPENDIX

EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES OF ANALYSIS REPORTS

 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS PROJECT

HIGH RISK GROUP: ARTICULATED TRUCKS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Articulated trucks have a high risk of casualty accident involvement compared with other
types of trucks. In 1983 in Australia, articulated trucks were involved in 7.4 fatal
accidents per 100 million kilometres travelled, compared with an involvement rate of 1.7
for rigid trucks. A higher level of involvement rate holds across all categories of
accident severity, but the difference is relatively greater for the more severe accidents.

The over-involvement of articulated trucks was examined by comparing 2962 semi-

trailers involved in casualty accidents in Victoria during 1984-89 with 5542 rigid trucks
involved during the same period. It was recognised that semi-trailers operate over longer
distances than rigid trucks and hence that they will be used and be involved in crashes on
rural roads with the higher speed limits to a greater extent. For this reason the
comparison of semi-trailer and rigid truck accidents was made within each of two groups
of speed zones at the accident location (up to 75 kmIh; 80 kmIh and above).

Semi-trailers and their drivers were substantially over-involved in a large number of

specific crash circumstances compared with rigid trucks. Many of these over-
involvements were potentially explainable by the truck size and load mass differences,
and by the different usage patterns of semi-trailers (relatively greater use on rural
highways, in the highest speed zones, and at night). However the following factors
associated with substantial over-involvements of semi-trailers are apparently not fully
explainable by the above differences between the two vehicle types:

crashes in the low speed zones in rural towns

at traffic lights and roundabouts in the low speed zones
running off straight roads in the low speed zones
side swipe and overtaking crashes
driver's seat belt not fitted or not worn if available
impacts to the front and left side of the semi-trailer in the low speed zones
impacts to the front corners of the semi-trailer in the high speed zones
death or serious injury to the semi-trailer driver from crashes in the high speed
zones.

These factors represent target groups for potential countermeasures to address the high
over-involvement rate of articulated trucks in casualty crashes. These countermeasures
could address the crash involvement of articulated trucks, and/or also the risk of severe
injury to the truck driver and other road users involved, as there appear to be high risk
factors operating in both stages which influence whether a casualty crash occurs.
 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS PROJECT

HIGH SEVERITY GROUP:

CARS STRUCK BY HEAVY VEHICLES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Occupants of passenger cars struck by heavy vehicles frequently sustain much higher
severity injuries compared with car occupants struck by other types of vehicle. Injured
car occupants are four to seven times more likely to be killed when the striking vehicle is
a heavy vehicle, compared with being struck by another car. They are also substantially
more likely to be taken to hospital when struck by a heavy vehicle than otherwise.

The objective of the analysis was to establish sub-groups of occupants of cars struck by
heavy vehicles who had particularly high injury severities, as a basis of target groups for
countermeasures. Injury severity was measured by the percentage of injured car
occupants who were killed or seriously injured. Factors affecting the injury severity of
5496 car occupants involved in a collision with a heavy vehicle in Victoria during 1984-
89 were examined. Preliminary analysis showed that the speed zone and the type of
heavy vehicle were major factors affecting injury severity. Higher injury severities were
observed in the higher speed zones and when the heavy vehicle was a semi-trailer.
Subsequent analysis examined collisions involving semi-trailers and rigid trucks
separately, within each of two groups of speed zones at the accident location (up to 75
km/h; 80 km/h and above).

A large number of environmental, crash, occupant, vehicle and impact factors were
found to be related to higher levels of injury severity of the car occupants. These were:

(a) Environmental factors

rural roads outside towns

curved road alignments
at Stop signs
at Give Way signs (in most situations)
at cross intersections (in most situations)
away from intersections, for rigid truck collisions in the low speed zones
in the outer areas of Melbourne, for rigid truck collisions in the low speed zones

(b) Crash factors

car and truck approaching at right angles at intersections

head on crashes
car colliding with truck rear
right turn against crashes involving semi-trailers
car/truck collisions also involving a fixed object collision, when the truck was a
rigid truck in the low speed zones or a semi-trailer in the high speed zones
 (c) Car Occupant factors

unrestrained occupants
aged over 55 years
aged 18-25 years, for collisions in the high speed zones
male
positive HAC reading, for collisions in the low speed zones
driver seating position, for collisions with semi-trailers in the high speed zones

(d) Vehicle factors

small car (500 to 750 Kg)

intermediate size car (1250 to 1500 Kg) in the high speed zones
registered truck weight over 30 tonnes
truck to car mass ratio exceeding 20 (an exponentially increasing relationship
between injury severity and mass ratio was also found)
truck model years 1960-69, in the high speed zones

(e) Collision points

impacts to the car:

right side
left side, for collisions in the low speed zones
front
resulting in extensive damage to the car

impacts to the truck:

front, especially the right front corner
left side
rear, for collisions in the low speed zones

impact configurations
front of truck colliding with car and producing extensive damage
front to front impacts between car and truck

These factors define target groups for countermeasures which should be designed to
reduce injury severity, with priority given to severity reduction in the specific
circumstances and characteristics of the target group. The target groups also define
car/truck crash types and circumstances which should be priority areas for
countermeasures aimed at preventing collisions involving trucks.

The analysis also found that nearly 40% of car occupants killed or seriously injured in
car/truck collisions resulted from front to front impacts. Some 60% of these collisions
involved impacts with the front corners of the truck, with more than half of these corner
impacts being to the right front corner.

A priority area for a countermeasure to reduce car occupant injury severity is improved
frontal structures of trucks, especially the front corners outside the frame side members
and especially the right front corner. There are developments in Europe to improve the
front corners of trucks by structures which absorb energy and also reduce over-ride of the
struck car in off-set front to front impacts.
 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

DEVELOPMENT OF COUNTERMEASURES
TO MOTORCYCLIST TRAUMA

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the Accident Data Analysis Project, a number of target groups for the motorcycle accident
problem were identified by finding sub-groups which were over-involved in three crash
situations which previous research had shown to be of high risk. Further target groups were
added by identifying sub-groups which were associated with higher injury severity than the
overall average for all injured motorcyclists.

A sub-set of target groups was selected on the basis of being substantially over-involved or
substantially more severe. The selection criteria were designed to ensure that there is the
potential for at least a 20% reduction (in most cases, 33% reduction) in the number of accident
involvements, or the number of deaths or seriously injured, in the target group depending on its
nature.

The selected target groups were reviewed collectively and mechanisms for the crashes or injuries
occurring were suggested. This in turn led to the following suggested countermeasures for
motorcyclist trauma:

1. Random breath testing during the "alcohol times" (and slightly earlier) on weekends in
Spring and Summer, targetting riders of the larger and older motorcycles, and including
licence checks. Priority should be given to deterring motorcyclists operating in
residential areas of Melbourne and in rural areas outside towns, and there should be
supporting publicity emphasising the focus on motorcyclists.

2. A curve treatment program aimed at motorcycle accident blackspots on curves, involving

warning signs, improved skid resistance and super-elevation, increased roadside recovery
areas and the removal 'or shielding of fixed objects. As part of the cost-benefit
assessment of this proposal, an investigation is needed of the extent to which such curves
are also accident blackspots for other vehicles.

3. Visible mobile police patrols and stationary enforcement of speeding and BAC levels,
located in the residential streets of the outer suburbs of Melbourne.

4. (a) Inclusion or increased emphasis in the motorcycle pre-licence testing manual of

the dangers due to the low conspicuity of motorcycles, and the need to
compensate for braking difficulties while gaining experience

(b) Adding a higher speed curve negotiation test to the skills test for a Probationary
motorcycle licence

(c) Lower speed limit for novice motorcyclists on rural highways.

5. A requirement that motorcycles be operated with front headlamps alight at all times.

These suggestions arise from analysis of over-involvements without full consideration of the
practicability of the suggested countermeasures.
INTRODUCfION

As part of the Accident Data Analysis Project, there have been four separate studies of the
motorcycle accident problem. Three of these examined components of the problem where prior
research had demonstrated a high risk of accident involvement, and attempted to find sub-groups
which were particularly over-involved to act as countermeasure target groups. The three high
risk components considered were:

motorcyclists crashing on curves

novice motorcyclists (learners and probationary licence holders)
intoxicated motorcyclists (BAC above 0.05).

In each case sub-groups were found by comparing the high risk component with its "low risk"
complement (ie. motorcyclists crashing on straight roads, fully licensed motorcyclists, and sober
motorcyclists, respectively) to establish factors which were over-represented to a statistically
significant degree. It was not possible for most factors to say whether the sub-group defined had
a high risk of accident involvement in the circumstances specified by the factor, or a high level
of exposure to the circumstances leading to the accidents. However, each factor defines a target
group for a countermeasure which should aim to reduce accident involvement by either reducing
risk or reducing exposure, depending on what is likely to be effective, practical and acceptable.

The fourth study examined the injury severity of motorcyclists as a whole, because past research
had identified motorcyclists as a road user group having one of the highest rates of severe injury.
Sub-groups of injured motorcyclists who had high rates of severe injury (killed or seriously
injured, with special focus on fatal injury) were sought to establish factors which were associated
with higher injury severities than the overall average to a statistically significant degree. These
factors define target groups for countermeasures which should aim to reduce the severe injuries
sustained by motorcyclists involved in crashes. If such countermeasures are not practical or
acceptable, then countermeasures should be aimed at reducing the accident involvements of the
target group.

This report describes a process to develop countermeasures for the more significant target groups
identified in the four studies. As well as giving attention to the size of the problem represented
by the target group, it is proposed that "significant" target groups should be selected on the basis
of:

the extent of over-involvement, in the case of target groups within each of the high risk
components

the extent to which the injury severity is greater than the overall average, in the case of
the high severity target groups.

SELECTED HIGH RISK TARGET GROUPS

In the first three reports there are a number of factors that were over-involved in the high risk
component (eg. motorcyclists on curves) to only a small degree, even though this difference was
statistically significant. In addition there were factors that, while substantially over-involved,
were applicable to the high risk component in a small proportion of cases (the very small
proportions were ignored in the three studies). Further, there were factors whose over-
involvement in the high risk component could be explained by a known difference in the
exposure patterns of the two groups (eg. novice motorcyclists were more often constrained to
engine capacities up to 250cc than fully licensed motorcyclists, due to a legislative requirement).

It is proposed that the significant target groups in the high risk components should be selected by
the following criteria:

over-involvement by at least 1.5 times (ie. the proportion of the high risk component to
which the factor is applicable should be at least 50% greater than the proportion of the
"low risk" component),

the factor defining the target group is applicable to at least 5% of the high risk
component,

the over-involvement of the factor in the high risk component is not substantially
explainable by known differences in exposure of the groups being compared, and

the factor is a specific category of a more general factor which otherwise satisfies the
above criteria, and the over-involvement lies substantially in the specific factor.

The first criterion ensures that the target group is substantially over-involved and hence that
there is substantial room for change. It may be ambitious to expect a countermeasure to reduce
the accident involvements of the target group by more than the group is over-involved, ie. to an
accident involvement rate per motorcyclist lower than the rate of motorcyclists in the "low risk"
component. An over-involvement criterion of at least 1.5 implies that a 33.3% or greater
reduction in accident involvements is potentially available, without being overly ambitious, if
this criterion is chosen. Whether the countermeasure would achieve this effect by risk reduction
or exposure reduction (or a combination of both) is not relevant at this stage, only that the
potential exists.

Table 1 shows the number of motorcyclists involved in crashes which were identified as target
groups in the first three studies and which also satisfy the above criteria. These numbers are
shown in bold font in the table; also shown in italics font are the numbers in selected target
groups when the over-involvement criterion is relaxed to 1.25. For these target groups a
reduction of accident involvements of at least 20% (up to 33.3%) is potentially available,
without being overly ambitious.

SELECTED HIGH SEVERITY TARGET GROUPS

In the fourth report there were a number of target groups for which the injury severity measure
(% killed or % seriously injured) was only slightly greater than the corresponding measure for
all motorcyclists, even though this difference was statistically significant. However, groups of
motorcyclists defined by factors which were applicable to only a small proportion of the total
motorcyclists involved were not considered for identification as high severity target groups; this
was because the calculated severity measure was based on few cases of injured motorcyclists and
could not be considered reliable.

It is proposed that the significant target groups among those previously identified as having high
severity should be selected by the following criteria:
 fatal injury severity at least 1.5 times the overall value (ie. the proportion of injured
motorcyclists in the target group who were killed should be at least 50% greater than the
proportion for injured motorcyclists overall), or

serious injury severity at least 1.5 times the overall value (ie. the proportion of injured
motorcyclists in the target group who were seriously injured should be at least 50%
greater than the proportion for injured motorcyclists overall).

The overall injury severity measure used for reference should be that for all motorcyclists having
essentially the same IIcrash exposure" to injury risk as the target group. In the fourth study it
was found that motorcyclists crashing in the higher speed zones had higher levels of injury
severity than those crashing in the lower speed zones; this was probably because they were
exposed to higher impact speeds and hence had different "crash exposure" to injury. Hence in
this case it would in general be necessary to compare the target group injury severity with the
overall injury severity of motorcyclists crashing in the same speed zone categories; the exception
would be if the target group had the same relatively high injury severity in each speed zone
range.

One or both of the above criteria being true ensures that the target group has injury severity
which is substantially higher than the norm and hence that there is substantial room for
improvement. If the risk of fatal or serious injury to injured motorcyclists is at least 1.5 times
the usual level, this implies that a 33.3% or greater reduction in the number of killed or seriously
injured motorcyclists is potentially available without being overly ambitious. However, this
potential is related to countermeasures which aim to achieve this effect by a reduction in injury
severity (or reduction in severe injury risk); it is not relevant to the potential of countermeasures
aimed at reducing the accident involvements of the same target group. The target group may not
have an unusually high risk of motorcyclist accidents, or exposure to such crashes, so it may be
difficult to design a countermeasure to reduce their accident involvements (this is not to say that
such a countermeasure should not be given high priority if an injury severity countermeasure
cannot be found).

Table 1 also shows the numbers of killed and seriously injured motorcyclists in the target groups
identified in the fourth study, and where the target group satisfied one or both of the above
criteria. These numbers are shown in bold font in the table: also shown in italics font are the
corresponding numbers of severely injured in selected target groups when the criterion for the
severity measure was 1.25 times the overall measure. For these target groups a reduction in
deaths and/or serious injuries of at least 20% is potentially available, without being overly
ambitious.

SIZE OF SELECTED TARGET GROUPS

Table 1 gives the number of involved motorcyclists (94% of whom were injured sufficiently to
justify a Police report), or the numbers of killed and seriously injured motorcyclists, depending
on the nature of the target group.

In conjunction with average motorcyclist injury costs by injury level, these numbers can be used
to estimate the total cost of the accidents or serious injuries sustained by the target group per
annum. This information should be used with estimates of the cost and expected effectiveness
(percentage reduction in the target group) of a proposed countermeasure to judge whether it
could be cost-beneficial and hence worth considering further. Appropriately chosen

4
countenneasures could reasonably expect to reduce the accident or injury costs associated with
each target group by up to 20% (in most cases, up to 33.3%).

ACCIDENT AND INJURY MECHANISMS OF THE TARGET GROUPS

The first step in developing specific countermeasures for a selected target group is to obtain
information on the mechanisms by which the accident involvement or injury occurrence was
caused. In the case of accident involvement, it may be necessary to understand whether the
target group has a high exposure or a high risk of accidents when exposed.

At times this information may not be readily available from past research or interstate or
overseas experience. If the estimated cost of the target group accidents and/or injuries is large
enough, there may be a case for diverting some of the countermeasure investment to research
and development in order to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms to assist in the
design of an effective countermeasure.

However the need for countermeasures to road trauma is acute in most areas, with motorcyclist
crashes and injuries being one of them. While further research is clearly warranted, there is a
case for attempting to develop countermeasures on the basis of the four studies of motorcycle
accidents currently available.

SUGGESTED MECHANISMS AND COUNTERMEASURES

There is prior knowledge that many of the factors in Table 1 are related, ego curved alignments
occur predominantly on rural open roads; higher BAC's are observed at night during dark
conditions. Hence some of the factors describe substantial parts of the same problem from a
different perspective. Table 2 shows the percentage of motorcyclists in each target group; this
measures the proportion of the problem associated with each factor and also indicates the
potential for any countermeasure to have a major impact.

In general, the motorcyclists crashing on curves had many factors in common with intoxicated
motorcyclists, even though the former had most of their crashes in the higher speed zones
whereas the latter crashed mainly in the lower speed zones. In addition, the motorcyclist groups
with high injury severity had many factors common to both of these high risk groups. Only the
novice motorcyclists had relatively unique factors on which they were substantially over-
represented.

It is possible by close examination of Tables 1 and 2 to suggest mechanisms and

countermeasures for the crashes or injuries of a number of target groups simultaneously. These
are:

1. Intoxicated motorcyclists are a well defined group for targetting and deserving of priority
because of their high injury severity. Motorcyclists with BAC over 0.05 represent 43%
of the killed and 17% of the seriously injured. Their accident mechanisms typically
involve running off the road (44%), overturning or falling off (32% of crashes), and
hitting objects (14%); typical alcohol-related crashes. However, the most important
underlying mechanism is their prior alcohol consumption. Some 27% of their crashes
occur on curves, so they are a significantly over-represented part of the curve problem as
well.

5
 Intoxicated motorcyclists are substantially over-involved during the alcohol times of the
week (84%), on weekends (46%) and during October to February (52%). They are very
over-represented among those motorcyclists riding bikes with engine capacity over 500cc
(43%) or manufactured before 1980 (32%). A disproportionately high number of
intoxicated motorcyclists are unlicensed (28%).

A suitable countermeasure would be the use of random breath testing during the alcohol
times (and slightly earlier to provide a deterrent effect) on weekends in the Spring and
Summer months, particularly targetting riders of the larger and older motorcycles, and
including licence checks with follow-ups as well. Priority should be given to deterring
motorcyclists operating in residential areas of Melbourne and in rural areas outside
towns. The supporting publicity should emphasise the focus on motorcyclists and the
particular target groups and areas.

2. Motorcyclists crashing on curves are substantially over-involved on rural roads outside

towns (50%) and also in the low speed zones of the outer, semi-rural areas of Melbourne
(12%). Their accidents frequently involve running off the road (64%), resulting in over-
turning or falling off (40%) or hitting objects (27%) especially trees, embankments,
fences and walls (total 13%). Some 26% of these motorcyclists are intoxicated (and are
over-represented in many of the same situations as intoxicated motorcyclists generally),
but for the remainder who are sober the crash mechanism appears to be difficulty in
negotiating curves and avoidance of roadside objects when they leave the road.

A suitable countermeasure would be a curve treatment program aimed at motorcycle

accident blackspots on curves, involving warning signs and improved skid resistance and
super-elevation. The treatment could also involve increased roadside recovery area and
the removal or shielding of fixed objects. As part of the cost-benefit assessment of this
proposal, an investigation is needed of the extent to which such curves are also accident
blacks pots for other vehicles.

3. Motorcyclists riding in the suburbs of Melbourne are a special target group. The
residential areas off the arterial roads are substantially over-involved for those crashing
on curves (14%) and for the intoxicated motorcyclists (20%). Severe injuries result from
crashes in the outer suburbs, accounting for 24% of the deaths and also 24% of the
seriously injured. The crash mechanisms appear to be a combination of alcohol
consumption and speeding.

A suitable countermeasure would be a combination of visible mobile police patrols and

stationary enforcement of speeding and HAC levels, located in the residential streets of
the outer suburbs of Melbourne. Specific locations should be selected on the basis of
motorcycle accident blackspots on curves, with priority given to the alcohol times of the
week but not exclusively to those times.

4. Novice motorcyclists are not often substantially over-represented in situations and crash
types which are different from experienced motorcyclists. They are very over-involved
in crashes in rural towns (21%) and at Give Way signs (10%), and they have a
disproportionately high number of crashes into the rear of other vehicles in the lower
speed zones (6%) and hitting objects in the higher speed zones (4%). The crash
mechanisms appear to be failure to be seen by other vehicles required to give way, and
difficulties with braking while remaining stable. The over-involvement in rural towns
probably relates to a high level of exposure by novice motorcyclists in those areas.

6
 Suitable countenneasures would be:

inclusion or increased emphasis in the motorcycle pre-licence testing manual of

the dangers due to the low conspicuity of motorcycles, and the need to
compensate for braking difficulties and associated instability while gaining
experience on motorcycles

adding a higher speed curve negotiation test to the skills test for a Probationary
motorcycle licence

lower speed limit for learner and Probationary licensed motorcyclists on rural
highways.

5. Motorcyclists as a whole have substantially higher injury severities when they are
involved in right turn against crashes, and in crashes at Give Way and Stop signs in the
higher speed zones. Right turn against crashes resulted in 14% of the killed and 16% of
the seriously injured motorcyclists. The Give Way signs represent 5% of the deaths and
Stop signs represent 1%; each type of intersection represents 1% of the seriously injured.
The crash mechanism is likely to a failure to be seen by other vehicles required to give
way (after first stopping in the case of a Stop sign).

A suitable countermeasure would be a requirement that motorcycles be operated with

front headlamps alight at all times.

SUMMARY

Target groups for the motorcycle accident problem were identified by finding sub-groups which
were over-involved in three crash situations which previous research had shown to be of high
risk. Further target groups were added by identifying sub-groups which were associated with
higher injury severity than the overall average for all injured motorcyclists.

A sub-set of target groups was selected on the basis of being substantially over-involved or
substantially more severe. The selection criteria were designed to ensure that there is the
potential for at least a 20% reduction (in most cases, 33% reduction) in the number of accident
involvements, or the number of deaths or seriously injured, in the target group depending on its
nature.

The selected target groups were reviewed collectively and mechanisms for the crashes or injuries
occurring were suggested. This in turn led to the following suggested countermeasures for
motorcyclist trauma:

1. Random breath testing during the alcohol times (and slightly earlier to provide a
deterrent effect) on weekends in the Spring and Summer months, particularly targetting
riders of the larger and older motorcycles, and including licence checks with follow-ups
as well. Priority should be given to deterring motorcyclists operating in residential areas
of Melbourne and in rural areas outside towns. The supporting publicity should
emphasise the focus on motorcyclists and the particular target groups and areas.

2. A curve treatment program aimed at motorcycle accident blackspots on curves, involving

warning signs and improved skid resistance and super-elevation. The treatment could
also involve increased roadside recovery area and the removal or shielding of fixed
objects.
3. A combination of visible mobile police patrols and stationary enforcement of speeding
and BAC levels, located in the residential streets of the outer suburbs of Melbourne.
Specific locations should be selected on the basis of motorcycle accident blackspots on
curves, with priority given to the alcohol times of the week but not exclusively to those
times.

4. (a) inclusion or increased emphasis in the motorcycle pre-licence testing manual of

the dangers due to the low conspicuity of motorcycles, and the need to
compensate for braking difficulties and associated instability while gaining
experience on motorcycles

(b) adding a higher speed curve negotiation test to the skills test for a Probationary
motorcycle licence

(c) lower speed limit for learner and Probationary licensed motorcyclists on rural
highways.

5. A requirement that motorcycles be operated with front headlamps alight at all times.

However, it should be noted that these suggestions have at this stage been based predominantly
on the analysis of over-involvements of the target groups in high risk and/or high injury severity
situations, without full consideration of practicability of the suggested countermeasure.

Each suggestion needs to be reviewed to assess its cost-effectiveness and the need for further
research and development. In the case of the second suggestion, an investigation is needed of
the extent to which motorcycle accident blackspot curves are also blackspots for other vehicles,
as part of the cost-benefit assessment of this proposal.

8
 Table 1: NUMBER OF MOTORCYCLISTS IN SELECTED HIGH RISK AND HIGH SEVERITY TARGET GROUPS (6 years: 1984-89)

12
25
-~
83
11
24
6 ~ 5
Alcohol
Weekends
Outer
Residential
SITUA
Percent
Rural
100
Octobertowns
areas
Darkkm/h
Saturdays
TOTALS
10am
Curved
Give
Stop
Sundays
Speed
Dark,
6pm Way
sians
no I
Iareas
144
406
1723
to
521
459
1.03%
low
to4pm
344
31
20.93%
7.00%
to6am
D H
times
ENVIRONMENTAL 941
78.68%
of10579
236
1868
169
conditions
4261
13.89%
42.31%
23.76%
28.36%
139
17.0~/0
16.05%
9.83%
8.46%C
F
2937
Melbourne
TIONAL
58 of
total
15.19%
1282
2042
1.15%
G3813
2866 up
100.00%
2.83%
3195
63
5689
21.32%
21.84%
1403
140speed
15.3~/0
8.53%
29.08%
0.43%
42.66% E
A
of37.87%
MSD
areas
4138
February
zones
167
INVOLVED
alignment
1321
1339
20.11%sians
42.13%
Zones
street
hiah
222
914
864
2531
406 80
zones+week
460
954
1262
outside km/h
lights 75
zones FACTORS
tosuburbs
Melb.
FACTORS
B all
(911)2158
involvements
12.81% 259
296
towns59
556
kmlh
zones
141
&573 1147
all
hiah
low
above
present
442 ,low
high
1054 1199
1445
465 524443
2814
2158
2060
3910
5735
2704 1205
42 16.05%
65
72 11382158968
953
2289 799
887 47
18
155
904
5092 1722
427 380 . "5664 ....··....···1"3445 ······1·o(iori0;~

Page 1
 Table 1: NUMBER OF MOTORCYCLISTS IN SELECTED HIGH RISK AND HIGH SEVERITY TARGET GROUPS (6 years: 1984-89)

-~
I
Helmet
IntoGother
Female
BAC
RIDER
Extensively
Crashes
CRASH
Head
Runnina
Front
34 Age
Right I51
108
158
not
Manufactured
Non-Victorian
Cross H
4.14°/0
on1.54°/0
1.18°/0
Unlicensed
MOTORCYCLE
Positive
over 915
317
557
322
1050
132
1179
1722
4.37°10
13.30°/0
2.39°10
13.07°/0
over19.5~/o
---

F
worn
C
vehicle
119
155
259
207
397
traffic
FACTORS
0.05
19.70°/0
Collisions
Engine 7.81°/0
61
335
off
1.06%
Involving
4.86%
12.81°/c,
under9.10%
9.
0.98%
parked
turn 587
80
478
1.93°/c,
207 A
before
licence
D
E
damaged
FACTORS
without
collisions
697
BAC
80
165
714
0.15
overtaking
965
388
1300
67°/c,
20.83%
capacity
2.95%with
5.31°/c,
impacts
25.38% road
65
2179
18 years
capacity>
16.21°/c,
925
55
65
449
739
143 rear
collisions
heavy
years 1980
collision
153
FACTORS
B
251-500cc
vehicle
aaainst
1224 vehs.
500cc
crashes low 1722
73 all
1382
872
369
319
568 high 551
766
489 311 12
2624 290
2800
654
2649
1788
3412 56zones 588
aI/zones
aI/ 406
548
133 998
16
19
20
38
15
202
125 1757
36 354
46
53
47 ~
54

Page 2
 Table 1: NUMBER OF MOTORCYCLISTS IN SELECTED HIGH RISK AND HIGH SEVERITY TARGET GROUPS (6 years: 1984-89)

'--~64632 ·Hittina
trees
low
other
guide
guard
poles
hiah 1488
33
G
20
23
488
7 fixed
traffic islands
embankments
2zones
fences 8.88%
1194
47
or
obiects
posts
zones all
rails
signs 8Izones
36940
H
88F 12
22 0EA Blow
Cobiects
19
30
31
walls
28
61
33
9
183 6 81 all
62
43
148
581 low
242
high 15
6
20 43 2
~

Page 3
 Table 2: PERCENTAGE OF MOTORCYCLISTS IN SELECTED HIGH RISK AND HIGH SEVERITY TARGET GROUPS (6 years: 1984-89)

-
25
12 ~
24
11
85
6 ~
Dark
Alcohol
Percent
10am
Curved
Give
TOTALS
100 I
WeekendsIto
SITUATIONAL
ENVIRONMENTAL
Residential
Outer
Rural conditions
Way
F km/h
Saturdays
October
Speed
Dark,
Sundays
Stop
6pm no
signs
toE times
58%
44%
towns
Melbourne
areasG
37%
of 16%
15%
100%
62%
38%
4pm7%
45%
to
Zones
6am 1%
30%
24%
100%C
alionment
75%
25%
23%
signsof0
areas
totals
INVOLVED
speed Hinvolved
FACTORS
21%
outside
of80
MSD
81%
February
streetup A week
73%
27%
100%
19%suburbs
Melb.
km/h
zones
to
Iiohts 26%
FACTORS
B75 20%
27%
24%
14%
42%
1% 7%
towns
12%
3%
21%
100%
50%
220/0
15°/c,
14%
0%
28%
7%
10%
790/0
24%
100%
21%
km/h
present
& ow low
all
low
lhiOh
above 84%
70%
20%
26%
hioh 19%
17%
27% 10% 43°/c,
11%
15% 100%
29%
21%
16%
20% 56% 56%
46%
52% 17%
2158
44% 5%
1%5092
12%
8% 24% 9°/c, 25%
1% 1722 380 5664 ..··..··..···..·..·..····..·..1·3445·

Page 1
 Table 2: PERCENTAGE OF MOTORCYCLISTS IN SELECTED HIGH RISK AND HIGH SEVERITY TARGET GROUPS (6 years:. 1984-89)

ICRASH
Cross
Into
RIDER oarked
Involvina
Collisions
Head
Front
BAC
Aae other
Positive
Manufactured
Female
Helmet
Runnina on
Unlicensed
Riaht
Crashes
Enaineunder
I G~/o
traffic
Extensivelv
impacts
over
over not
21% F
C
vehicle
120/0
off 6%
170/0
16%
20/0
21%
3% 7%
8%
4%
64%road
18 D
overtakina
collisions
BACwith
0.15
0.05
55 worn
FACTORS
turn 16%
1%
16%6%
Non-Victorian
MOTORCYCLE aaainst
without
caoacitv
17%
43%
FACTORS H
EA
vehicle
years>
collisions
9%
damaaed
heaw
vears B
rear
before 40%
vehs.
1980
15%
crashes
collision
251-500cc
500cc
licence
FACTORS 17%
26%
1%
10%
16%
3%
13%
4%
13°/0
8°1o
2°1o
4°1o
5°1o
1°1o
~/o
9°1o low
3% all
hiah
all
all
hiah 32%
28%
44%
100% 6% 15%
3%
21%
250/0
20°/0
13°/0
5% 8% 4°1o
24%
43%
26%
32% 14%
4%
5%
10%
53%
26%
33%
2%
47
36 ~~34
46
35
54 53

Page 2
 Table 2: PERCENTAGE OF MOTORCYCLISTS IN SELECTED HIGH RISK AND HIGH SEVERITY TARGET GROUPS (6 years: 1984-89)

I
.·Hittina
trees
fences
guide
traffic
DOles
guard islands
embankments
G fixed
other 0.79%
0.14%
0.35%
1.58%
1.05%
0.26%
obiects
23%
posts
sians
rails F
C
0.16%
or 00.59%
0.43%
wallsA
14%H4%
0.70%
3.54%
0.65%
obiects
1.55%
0.58%
0.83%
0.12%
0.41%
9% B 3.75%
1.80%
0.37%
1.63%
0.12%
0.52%
E 1.85%
6.86%
2.87%
1.99%
9% low
27% 3.95%
hiah
all
0.53%
high 0.12%
0.39% 2.50% 0.53%
64
63
~

Page 3
 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS PROJECT

HIGH RISK GROUP: INTOXICATED PEDESTRIANS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Previous ere is a 15 times higher risk of serious injury for

pedestria those with a BAC above 0.15) compared with
those wh _, of intoxicated pedestrians who were over-
involved. 00 ,-~ h sober pedestrians were found by analysing
data on 29
during 19. ~ 'v~ ,_,,,,,5>
. lOwnBA~ readings
'ere defmed whichrelated
by factors occurredto inthe
Victoria
road
environme; , .•." pt:uestrian, and the accident type and outcome.

Substantially over-involved sub-groups are suitable targets for countermeasures.

The mechanisms explaining the over-involvement of each target group were
suggested as part of the study. It is proposed that the target groups should be
addressed through VIe ROAD's existing Pedestrian Safety Program. The focus of
each of the three program strategies aimed at intoxicated pedestrians should
include:

Strategy 1: To prevent pedestrians reaching high blood alcohol levels

drinkers who start early in the night, consume a relatively large amount of
alcohol, and finish their drinking relatively early (before Midnight)
drinkers who start drinking at lunchtime or during the afternoon
drinkers on weekends
drinkers on Fridays in the Melbourne suburbs
adults aged between 30 and 60 drinking during the day
adults aged between 30 and 50 drinking at night in the inner Melbourne
suburbs

Strategy 2: To prevent intoxicated pedestrian exposure

male drinkers in hotels and other licensed premises

public education messages in these venues emphasising the high risk of death
if an intoxicated pedestrian is struck by a vehicle, especially at the higher
speeds travelled in the outer suburbs

Strategy 3: To reduce intoxicated pedestrian risk

T-intersections in the inner Melbourne suburbs (treatment to be applicable

during all times of day, especially daytime)
roads in 75 km/h speed zones (treatments such as pedestrian crossings,
supported by pedestrian fencing to encourage their use, and median refuges
and improved lighting, to assist the pedestrian to cross a wide road and
improve their conspicuity to drivers).
 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS PROJECT

HIGH RISK AND HIGH SEVERITY GROUP:

ELDERLY PEDESTRIANS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Elderly pedestrians aged 60 and above have a high rate of casualty accident
involvement which reaches three times the rate of younger adults for pedestrians
aged in the mid-70's. Injury severity also increases with age, with pedestrians aged
65 and above having substantially higher rates of death or hospitalisation when
injured in accidents.

The over-involvement of elderly pedestrians was examined by comparing 1024

pedestrian victims aged 60 and above with 653 aged 40-59 from accidents in Victoria
during 1984-89; only pedestrians known to be sober were compared. Very few
factors were found to be related to the over-involvement of the elderly pedestrians.
However, a large number of factors were found to be related to the injury severity of
2097 pedestrians aged 65 and above who were killed or injured during the same
period. These factors define sub-groups of the elderly pedestrian accident problem
which should be target groups for countermeasures.

The target groups related to substantially higher injury severities were examined
and mechanisms to explain their accident involvement or high severity were
suggested. It is proposed that the target groups should be addressed through
countermeasures in four general categories, with the focus in each category being as
follows:

Category 1: Education of elderly pedestrians

their poor conspicuity during darkness and dawn/ dusk lighting conditions
pedestrians aged 75 and above should be particularly careful in avoiding
accident involvement because of their high injury susceptibility
difficulties for drivers to brake rapidly on wet roads, and their poor visibility
during raining conditions
additional care needed when crossing divided arterial roads in Melbourne at
major intersections
the higher risk of death when intoxicated if an elderly pedestrian is struck by
a vehicle
additional care needed when crossing to or from a tram

Category 2: Education of drivers

awareness of the poor conspicuity of elderly pedestrians during darkness and

dawn/ dusk lighting conditions
difficulties in braking rapidly on wet roads
poor visibility during raining conditions
 awareness of the unexpected presence of elderly pedestrians on roads in the
residential areas of Melbourne, and areas outside Melbourne
lack of awareness of elderly pedestrians to the presence of approaching
vehicles, especially when intoxicated
need to look out for elderly pedestrians at intersections in the residential
areas of Melbourne, especially at STOP signs

Category 3: Enforcement of driving offences

random breath testing to deter drink driving in the "alcohol times of the
week", especially on arterial roads
speed enforcement on divided arterial roads (especially in 75 km/h speed
zones) in Melbourne
speed enforcement on arterial roads in the vicinity of tram stops

Category 4: Road engineering

improved street lighting in the vicinity of places frequented by elderly

pedestrians at night
pedestrian crossings on divided arterial roads at locations frequented by
elderly pedestrians
pedestrian refuges at intersections in residential areas with STOP signs
speed warning signs on arterial roads in the vicinity of tram stops.

!l
 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS PROJECT

ACCIDENT INVOLVEMENT CLUSTERS:

SPEEDING DRIVERS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Drivers involved in serious casualty accidents were categorised into three populations of
crashes considered likely to be speed related:

· Drivers running off the road on curves (population 1)

· Drivers hitting another vehicle in the rear (Population 2)
· Drivers involved in pedestrian accidents resulting in death or serious injury
(Population 3).

Eight large clusters of drivers were found for Population 1 and six large clusters for each of
both Populations 2 and Population 3. For each population, the corresponding clusters together
represented at least 70% of the total drivers involved in a speed related accident type.

The drivers in Population 1 were involved in most of their accidents on rural roads (52%)
compared with the drivers in Populations 2 and 3 (12% and 6%, respectively). These two
populations of drivers were more frequently involved in accidents in the inner and middle
areas of the Melbourne Statistical Division (MSD). Population 1 drivers were also more
likely to be aged 18-25 (52%), have a RAC above zero (43%), to crash at night (55%) or on
wet roads (32%), and to drive older cars (48% more than ten years old) than the other
populations.

The largest cluster in Population 1, representing 21 % of the total drivers running off the road
on curves, was:

mostly drivers with zero RAC

mostly during day time
mostly on weekdays
mostly on dry roads
· more often female drivers than the population average
· more often in middle MSD locations than average
more often drivers of small cars than average.

The largest cluster in Population 2, representing 31 % of drivers hitting another vehicle in the
rear, was:

· only drivers with zero RAC

mostly during day time
mostly on weekdays
mostly on dry roads
· more often driving a car less than 6 years old than the population average
more often in middle MSD locations than average.
The largest cluster in Population 3, representing 29% of drivers hitting pedestrians resulting
in death or serious injury, was:

· only on dry roads

· mostly in inner MSD locations
· otherwise similar to the population in total.

Speed enforcement supported by mass media publicity should be focussed on the identified
clusters and aimed at deterring excessive speeding behaviour.
 MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH CENTRE

ACCIDENT DATA ANALYSIS PROJECT

SEVERE INJURY CLUSTERS: UNRESTRAINED OCCUPANTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Occupants of cars and station wagons involved in crashes and considered by the
recording Police officer to be unrestrained were clustered into homogeneous groups to
form the basis of countermeasures. The occupants were clustered on the basis of their
age, sex, and seating position, and the time of day, day of week, speed zone and location
of the crash. The seven largest clusters covered 69% of the 348 unrestrained occupants
considered.

The total group of unrestrained occupants were 58% male and spanned all age groups
with 39% aged 17 to 25. Drivers represented 41 %, left front passengers 26% and rear
passengers 32% of the total. 61% crashed in speed zones up to 75 km/h, and 63% of
their crashes occurred in the Melbourne Statistical Division (MSD) while 28% occurred
on the open road in rural areas. Weekdays accounted for 62% of the unrestrained
occupants, while 59% were involved in crashes during daytime.

The two largest clusters, which together covered 24% of the unrestrained occupants,
were both mostly drivers crashing in speed zones up to 75 km/h, but they differed in
other characteristics. The largest cluster mostly crashed at night and more often at
weekends than the total group of unrestrained occupants. The second largest cluster were
mostly male occupants and mostly crashed during the day. In other respects, these two
clusters resembled the total group of unrestrained occupants.

The other five identified clusters each covered 8-10% of the unrestrained occupants.
Each differed from the total group in relatively unique ways, but the clusters were
homogeneous in themselves.

Integrated enforcement and publicity aimed at encouraging restraint use should be

targeted at each of the clusters. Countermeasures which aim at reducing the impact
severity or preventing the crash involvements of each of the cluster groups should also be
considered.