Problems in Probability

1. In an examination, 30% of the students have failed in Mathematics, 20% of the

students have failed in chemistry and 10% have failed in both Mathematics and
Chemistry. A student is selected at random.
(i) What is the probability that the student has failed in Mathematics if it is
known that he has failed in Chemistry?
(ii) What is the probability that the student has failed either in Mathematics or in
Chemistry?

2. The personnel department of a company has records which show the following
analysis of its 200 engineers:

Age Bachelors degree only Masters degree Total

Under 30 90 10 100
30 to 40 20 30 50
Over 40 40 10 50
Total 150 50 200
If one engineer is selected at random from the company, find:
(a) The probability that he has only a bachelor’s degree.
(b) The probability that he has a master’s degree, given that he is over 40.
(c) The probability that he is under 30, given that he has only a bachelor’s
degree.

3. A problem in statistics is given to three students, A, B, C, whose chances of

1 1 1
solving it are , and respectively. If they try it independently, what is the
2 3 4
probability that the problem will be solved?

4. Two sets of candidates are competing for the positions on the Board of Directors
of Company. The probabilities that the first and second sets will win are 0.6 and
0.4 respectively. If the first set wins, the probability of introducing a new product
is 0.8, and the corresponding probability, if the second set wins, is 0.3. What is
the probability that the new product will be introduced?

5. In a bolt factory, machines M1, M2, M3 manufacture respectively 25, 35 and 40

per cent of the total output. Of their output, 5, 4 and 2 per cent respectively, are
defective bolts. One bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be
defective. What is the probability that it is manufactured in the machine M2?

6. One card is drawn from a standard pack of 52. What is the probability that it is
either a king or a queen?

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7. The Managing Committee of Vaishali Welfare Association formed a sub-
committee of 5 persons to look into electricity problem. Profiles of the 5 persons
are:
1. male age 40
2. male age 43
3. female age 38
4. female age 27
5. male age 65
If a chairperson has to be selected from this, what is the probability that he would
be either female or over 30 years?

8. Calculate the probability of picking a card that was a heart or a spade. Comment
on your answer.

9. What is the probability of picking a card that was red or black?

10. A man wants to marry a girl having qualities: white complexion – the probability
of getting such a girl is one in twenty; handsome dowry – the probability of
getting this is one in fifty; westernized manners and etiquettes – the probability
here is one in hundred. Find out the probability of his getting married to such a
girl when the possession of these three attributes is independent.

11. A problem in statistics is given to five students A, B, C, D and E. Their chances

1 1 1 1 1
of solving it are 2 , 3, 4, 5 and 6 . What is the probability that the problem will
be solved?

12. Find the probability of drawing a queen, a king and a knave in that order from a
pack of cards in three consecutive draws, the cards drawn not being replaced.

13. Assume that a factory has two machines. Past records show that machine 1
produces 30% of the items of output and machine 2 produces 70% of the items.
Further, 5% of the items produced by machine 1 were defective and only 1%
produced by machine 2 were defective. If a defective item is drawn at random,
what is the probability that the defective item was produced by machine 1 or
machine 2?

14. A company uses a ‘selling aptitude test’ in the selection of salesmen. Past
experience has shown that only 70% of all persons applying for a sales position
achieved a classification “dissatisfactory” in actual selling, whereas the remainder
were classified as “satisfactory”, 85% had scored a passing grade on the aptitude
test. Only 25% of those classified unsatisfactory, had passed the test on the basis
of this information. What is the probability that a candidate would be a
satisfactory salesman given that he passed the aptitude test?

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15. A manufacturing firm produces units of a product in four plants. Define event A i :
a unit is produced in plant i, i = 1,2,3,4 and event B : a unit is defective. From the
past records of the proportions of defectives produced at each plant the following
conditional probabilities are set :
P(B/ A1 ) = 0.05,
P(B/ A2 ) = 0.10,
P(B/ A3 ) = 0.15,
P(B/A4 ) = 0.02
The first plant produces 30 per cent of the units of the product, the second plant
25 per cent, third plant 40 per cent and the fourth plant 5 per cent. A unit of the
product made at one of these plants is tested and is found to be defective. What is
the probability that the unit was produced in plant 3?

16. A market research firm is interested in surveying certain attitudes in a small

community. There are 125 households broken down according to income,
ownership of a telephone and ownership of a TV.

Households with annual Households with annual

income of Rs. 8,000 or less income above Rs. 8,000
Telephone No Telephone No
Subscriber Telephone Subscriber
Telephone
Own TV set 27 20 18 10
No TV set 18 10 12 10

(i) What is the probability of obtaining a TV owner in drawing at random.

(ii) If a household has income over Rs. 8,000 and is a telephone subscriber,
what is the probability that he has a TV?
(iii) What is the conditional probability of drawing a household that owns a
TV, given that the household is a telephone subscriber?
(iv) Are the events ‘ownership of a TV’ and ‘telephone subscriber’ statistically
independent?
Comment.

17. A construction firm has submitted a bid for large research project. The firm’s
management initially felt that they had 50-50 chance of getting the project. However, the
agency to which the bid was submitted has subsequently requested additional information
on the Bid. Past experience indicates that that only 75% of the successful bids and 40%
of the unsuccessful bid the agency requested the additional information.
a) What is the priori probability of the bid being successful (that is prior to the request for
the additional information).
b) What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that
the bid ultimately be successful?
c) Compute a posterior probability that the bid will be successful given that the request
for additional information has been received.

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18. The probability that a boy will get a scholarship is 0.9 and that a girl will get is
0.8. What is the probability that at least one of them will get the scholarship?

19. A manufacturing firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily production
volumes of 500, 1,000 and 2,000 units respectively. According to past experience,
it is .005, .008 and .010. If a pipe is selected from a day’s total production and
found to be defective, find out
(i) from which plant the pipe comes?
(ii) What is the probability that it came from the first plant?

20. In a bolt factory machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and
40%. Of the total of their output 5, 4 and 2 per cent are defective bolts, A bolt is
drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the
probability that it was manufactured by machines A, B and C?

21. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the
probability that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of
getting at least one contract is 4/5, what is the probability that he will get both the
contracts?

22. A husband and wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post.
The probability of husband’s selection is 1/7 and that of wife’s selection is 1/5.
What is the probability that
(a) both of them will be selected
(b) only one of them will be selected, and
( c) none of them will be selected.

23. The personnel department of a company has records which show the following
analysis of its 200 engineers:

Age (Years) Bachelor’s degree only Master’s degree Total

Under 30 90 10 100
30 to 40 20 30 50
Over 40 40 10 50
Total 150 50 200

If one engineer is selected at random from the company, find:

(a) the probability he has only a bachelor’s degree;
(b) the probability he has a master’s degree given that he is over 40;
(c ) the probability he is under 30 given that he has only a bachelor’s degree.

24. The data for the promotion status and academic qualification regarding 100
employees of a company is as follows:

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 MBA Academic qualifications Total
Non- MBA
Promotional status
Promoted 12 48 60
Not promoted 18 22 40
Total 30 70 100

At random one employee is picked up. What is the probability that

(i) he is an MBA,
(ii) he is promoted,
(iii) he is promoted given that he is an MBA, and
(iv) he is an MBA given that he is promoted?

25. The records of 400 examinees are given below:

Educational qualifications
Score B.A. B.Sc. B.Com. Total
Below 50 90 30 60 180
Between 50 and 60 20 70 70 160
Above 60 10 30 20 60
Total 120 130 150 400

If an examinee is selected from this group of examinees, find

(i) the probability that he is a commerce graduate,
(ii) the probability that he is a science graduate, given that his score is above
60.
(iii) the probability that his score is below 50, given that he is a B.A.

26. You note that your officer is happy in 60% cases of your calls. You have also
noticed that if he is happy, he accedes to your requests with a probability of 0.4,
whereas if he is not happy, he accedes to your requests with a probability of 0.1.
You call on him one day and he accedes to your request. What is the probability
of his being happy?

27. A company has two plants to manufacture scooters. Plant I manufactures 70% of
the scooters and Plant II manufactures 30%. At plant I, 80% of scooters are rated
standard quality and at plant II, 90% of scooters are rated standard quality. A
scooter is picked up at random and is found to be of standard quality. What is the
chance that it has come from plant I, or Plant II?

28. In a post office, three clerks are assigned to process incoming mail. The first clerk,
A, processes 40 per cent; the second clerk, B, processes 35 per cent; and the third
clerk, C, processes 25 per cent of the mail. The first clerk has an error rate of 0.04,
the second has an error rate of 0.06, and the third has an error rate of 0.03. A mail
selected at random from a day’s output is found to have an error. The postmaster
wishes to know the probability that it was processed by clerk A or clerk B or clerk
C.

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29. From a computer tally based on employer records, the personnel manager of a
large manufacturing firm finds that 15 per cent of the firm’s employees are
supervisors and 25 per cent of the firm’s employees are college graduate. He also
discovers that 5 per cent are both supervisors and college graduates. Suppose an
employee is selected at random from the firm’s personnel records, what is the
probability of:
(a) Selecting a person who is both a college graduate and a supervisor?
(b) Selecting a person who is neither a supervisor nor a college graduate?

30. The probability that a new marketing approach will be successful is 0.6. The
probability that the expenditure for developing the approach can be kept
within the original budget is 0.50. The probability that both of these objectives will be
achieved at 0.30.
What is the probability that at least one of these objectives will be achieved. For
the two events described above, determine whether the events are independent or
dependent.

31. In a bolt factory machines A, B, and C manufacture respectively 25 per cent, 35 per
cent and 40 per cent of the total output. Of the total of their output 5, 4, and 2 per
cent are defective bolts, A bolt is drawn at random and is found to be defective.
What is the probability that it was manufactured by machines A, B, or C?

32. A company has two plants to manufacture scooters. Plant I manufactures 80 per
cent of the scooters and Plant II manufactures 20 per cent. In plant I only 85 out
of 100 scooters are considered to be of standard quality. In Plant II, only 65 out of
100 scooters are considered to be of standard quality. What is the probability that
a scooter selected at random came from plant I, if it is known that it is of standard
quality?

33. The probability that a trainee will remain with a company is 0.6. The probability
that an employee earns more than Rs. 10,000 per month is 0.5. The probability
that an employee who is a trainee remained with the company or who earns more
than Rs. 10,000 per month is 0.7. What is the probability that an employee earns
more than Rs.10,000 per month given that he is a trainee who stayed with the
company?

34. A certain production process produces items 10 per cent of which defective. Each
item is inspected before supplying to customers but 10 per cent of the time the
inspector incorrectly classifies an item. Only items classified as good are supplied.
If 820 items have been supplied in all, how many of them are expected to be
defective?

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35. A market survey was conducted in four cities to find out the preference for brand
A soap. The responses are shown below:

Delhi Kolkata Chennai Mumbai

Yes 45 55 60 50
No 35 45 35 45
No opinion 5 5 5 5

(a) What is the probability that a consumer selected at random, preferred

brand A?
(b) What is the probability that a consumer preferred brand A and was from
Chennai?

36. There are three brands, say X, Y, and Z of an item available in the market. A
consumer chooses exactly one of them for his use. He never buys two or more
brands simultaneously. The probabilities that he buys brands X, Y, and Z are 0.20,
0.16, and 0.45.
(a) What is the probability that he does not buy any of the brands?
(b) Given that a customer buys some brand, what is the probability that he
buys brand X?

37. Assume that a factory has two machines. Past records show that machine 1
produces 30 per cent of the items of output and machine 2 produces 70 per cent of
the items. Further 5 per cent of the items produced by machine 1 were defective and
only 1 per cent produced by machine 2 were defective. If a defective item is drawn
at random, what is the probability that the defective item was produced by machine
1?

38. An article manufactured by a company consists of two parts A and B. In the process
of manufacture of part A, 9 out of 100 are likely to be defective. Similarly, 5 out of
100 are likely to be defective in the manufacture of part B. Calculate the probability
that the assembled part will not be defective.

39. A product is assembled from three components X, Y, and Z, the probability of these
components being defective is respectively 0.01, 0.02, and 0.05. What is the
probability that the assembled that the assembled product will not be defective?

40 Machines have equal capacity and are operated at the same rate. It is known that the
percentages of defective items produced by X, Y, and Z are 2, 7, and 12 per cent
respectively. All the items produced by X, Y, and Z are put into one bin. From this
bin, one item is drawn at random and is found to be defective. What is the
probability that this item was produced on Y?

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