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Apollo Case Study - 1

The exponential smoothing model with trend adjustment provides the most accurate forecasts for Apollo Hospital's food demand. This model has a mean squared error of only 2% and can account for trends like increasing patient numbers. It is also replicable for other hospital locations. While this model is the best choice, Dr. Rao should monitor errors and refine the forecasts to average 5 days ahead to improve accuracy levels. Separate models should also be developed to forecast demand for staff, visitors, and patients/caregivers.

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1K views4 pages

Apollo Case Study - 1

The exponential smoothing model with trend adjustment provides the most accurate forecasts for Apollo Hospital's food demand. This model has a mean squared error of only 2% and can account for trends like increasing patient numbers. It is also replicable for other hospital locations. While this model is the best choice, Dr. Rao should monitor errors and refine the forecasts to average 5 days ahead to improve accuracy levels. Separate models should also be developed to forecast demand for staff, visitors, and patients/caregivers.

Uploaded by

Vino Sree
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Operations management case study solution

Qno: 01 Apollo serves 120 food items from its kitchen. Do you think that Apollo should develop
forecasting models for all 120 items?
Apollo shouldn’t have to develop forecasting models for all 120 items because the three
categories are developed to categorize for estimating the demand for canteen for staff,
caregivers and visitors. It should rather focus on major food items which are leftover such as
rice which is left over after dinner at each day contributing towards the wastage. It should not
develop forecasting model for all 120 items due to following reasons
1.

Qno:02 Explore the data provided in the supplement document. What inferences can be
obtained from the data?

Qno:03 Develop an appropriate forecasting model for each of the chosen food items?

The below forecast is based on the exponential smoothing with trend adjustment tool for predicting the
demand for food at Apollo hospitals
comparison between the forecast and actual
300

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150

100

50

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113

BKFST_OCCUP Idly Dosa Chutney


Sambar Continental B/F North Indian B/F Omellette
BKFST_OCCUP Idly dosa Chutney
Sambar Continental B/F North Indian B/F Omellette

The forecast without the trend adjustment gives the following results
Comparison of forecast and actual without trend adjustmen

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113

Qno:04 Discuss the results of the models developed in question 3 and its appropriateness for
use by Apollo Hospitals.
The above two models are developed to forecast the demand which is currently the Apollo
hospitals face. Though it is very difficult to determine a forecasting that reduce the 4% cost
from the food wastage and saves many. However, the exponential smoothing with trend
adjustment method is best suited for this forecast due to following reasons
1. It is more close to actual demand of the Apollo hospital’s demand for food with mean
squared error (MSE) is round about 2% which is helpful and predicting more accurately
2. It can replicable to other expansion opportunity because it is also predicting the trend
( in-patients increasing as the hospital expands) which can be useful if the hospital is
expanding 25%.
3. Since, it is replicable to other branches it is more cost-effective method because the
hospital would not have to go through at ad hoc method for estimation of demand for
food
4. It is more easy method to forecast in terms of determining the actual demand and it is
also helpful in limiting their rough estimation of producing more food for 10% which is
added to the loss for the company
5. It helps CEO for more improvisation opportunities, however caution must be taken to
predict the demand due to demographical and seasonal factors involved in forecasting
makes it tough.

Qno: 05
The suitable action for Dr.Rao would be to go with this forecasting method by keeping a
careful look at its error estimation and trend projection because these are the crucial in
determining the actual demand and reducing the food wastage. Since the above forecast
meets the criteria of making a forecast for 3 days at least. Keeping us at safe level of
predicting the demand it must take it to average 5 days so that preceding estimation with
trend go more with the accuracy level.
With this model, it would eliminate of rough estimation of preparing 10% extra food. It
should consider the process of food and beverages preparation because this would also
have added to the loses and costs faced by the hospital. Dr.Rao should have to develop 3
models for predicting the canteen for hospital staff; the cafeteria for visitors; and in-
patients and their caregivers. In order to specifically determine the requirement at each
level for better accuracy and least error in estimation.

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