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Period Number of Complaints 1 60 2 65 3 55 4 58 5 64

1. The document provides examples of different forecasting methods including naïve forecasting, moving averages, weighted averages, and exponential smoothing. It analyzes historical complaint data to forecast the number of complaints in future periods using these methods. 2. It also demonstrates calculating a linear trend line to forecast future demand based on historical demand data points. The trend equation is calculated and used to forecast demand for periods 10 and 11. 3. Key forecasting methods are explained and applied step-by-step to real data sets to predict future values based on historical patterns and trends.

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Chariz Audrey
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65 views4 pages

Period Number of Complaints 1 60 2 65 3 55 4 58 5 64

1. The document provides examples of different forecasting methods including naïve forecasting, moving averages, weighted averages, and exponential smoothing. It analyzes historical complaint data to forecast the number of complaints in future periods using these methods. 2. It also demonstrates calculating a linear trend line to forecast future demand based on historical demand data points. The trend equation is calculated and used to forecast demand for periods 10 and 11. 3. Key forecasting methods are explained and applied step-by-step to real data sets to predict future values based on historical patterns and trends.

Uploaded by

Chariz Audrey
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PALMES, IRISH JANE P.

BSA -2 DECEMBER 05, 2020

1. Forecasting based on averages. (Chapter3;Problem 1;pg.117)

PERIOD NUMBER OF
COMPLAINTS
1 60

2 65

3 55

4 58

5 64

A. The appropriate naïve approach

In the naïve approach the last period’s actual forecast or the most recent
value of the series becomes the next forecast which is 64

B. A three-period moving average


55+58+64
MA= =59
3

C. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent ), .30, .20

F=.20 ( 55 ) +.30 ( 58 )+ .50 (54 )


F=11+17.4 +32=¿
F=60.4

D. Exponential Smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40


PALMES, IRISH JANE P. BSA -2 DECEMBER 05, 2020

PERIOD NUMBER OF FORECAST CALCULATIONS


COMPLAINTS
1 60

2 65 60
3 55 62 60 +.40 (65-60) = 62
4 58 59.2 62 +.40 (55-62) = 59.2

5 64 58.72 59.2 +.40 ( 58- 59.2) = 58.72


6 60.83 58.72 +.40(64-58.72)= 60.83

2. Linear trend line (Chapter 3; Problem 3;pg .119)


PALMES, IRISH JANE P. BSA -2 DECEMBER 05, 2020

PERIOD DEMAND
1 44
2 52
3 50
4 54
5 55
6 55
7 60
8 56
9 62

PERIOD (t) DEMAND (y) t2 ty


1 44 1 44
2 52 4 104
3 50 9 150
4 54 16 216
5 55 25 275
6 55 36 330
7 60 49 420
8 56 64 448
9 62 81 558
45 285 488 2,545
2 =285¿
Σt=45 Σt ¿
PALMES, IRISH JANE P. BSA -2 DECEMBER 05, 2020

nΣty−Σt Σy
b=
n Σt 2−¿ ¿
9 ( 2,545 )−( 45 ) (488)
b=
9 (285 )−45 (45)
b=1.75

Σy−bΣt
a=
n
488−1.75 (45)
a=
9
a=45.47

Thus, the trend equation is Ft = 45.47 + 1.75t. The next forecast are :

f 10=45.47 1.75 ( 10 )
f 10 = 62.97

f 11=45.47+1.75(11)
f 11 = 64. 72

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