Key Value Drivers Corporate
Key Value Drivers Corporate
Session Overview
• Traditional rules of thumb about value creation can be misleading, and in some
cases harmful. We start our discussion with three important lessons:
– Lesson 1: Value is driven by growth, but not all growth is created equal
– Lesson 2: Driving towards higher multiples does not guarantee value creation
– Lesson 3: EBITDA & Earnings Per Share (EPS) often fail to measure value
• The value of a company can be traced to four key value drivers, core operating
profit, return on capital, cost of capital, and organic revenue growth.
– Value creation & the practice of finance is about evaluating tradeoffs. Although an action can
lead to an improvement in one metric like revenue growth, it may have an adverse impact on
other metrics, like return on capital.
– Every line of business, geography, customer group, distribution channel, must be thoroughly
evaluated for the potential of growth and profitability.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total Clients Clients per
New Offices
Year (millions) Retail Offices Office
Top-line Customers per 2002 20.9 9,015 2,318.4
growth Revenues office
per office 2003 21.7 10,635 2,040.4
Value Revenues per
Creation customer 2004 21.6 11,185 1,931.2
2005 21.4 12,461 1,717.4
Margin
Return on 2006 21.9 13,548 1,616.5
capital Capital
Efficiency
Source: 10‐K 2002‐2006
New
Offices
Top-Line
Growth
Comparables
Growth
Post-Case Actions
H&R Block
H&R Block to Cut Jobs in Spending Review Total Revenues, $ billions
H&R Block Inc., the nation's largest tax preparer, said Tuesday it plans
4.9
to cut jobs as it seeks to streamline its operations. "This review is 4.4 4.4
4.2
4.0 4.1
designed to ensure that all of our businesses and support functions have 3.7 3.9 3.8
a cost structure that helps the company to compete successfully in the 3.3
Session Overview
• Traditional rules of thumb about value creation can be misleading, and in some
cases harmful. We start our discussion with three important lessons:
– Lesson 1: Value is driven by growth, but not all growth is created equal
– Lesson 2: Driving towards higher multiples does not guarantee value creation
– Lesson 3: EBITDA & Earnings Per Share (EPS) often fail to measure value
• The value of a company can be traced to four key value drivers, core operating
profit, return on capital, cost of capital, and organic revenue growth.
– Value creation & the practice of finance is about evaluating tradeoffs. Although an action can
lead to an improvement in one metric like revenue growth, it may have an adverse impact on
other metrics, like return on capital.
– Every line of business, geography, customer group, distribution channel, must be thoroughly
evaluated for the potential of growth and profitability.
Rural Branch Suburban Branch
Cash Flow Cash Flow
151
122
116 129
110
105
100 110
94
80
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
• If the sale is used to repurchase shares, what happens to stock price and the
P/E ratio? Assume 50 million shares outstanding.
Mkt Value = $830 million Profits = $180 million What is the P/E
ratio of the company
Shares = 50 million Shares = 50 million prior to the
transaction?
Rural Suburban Price = $ EPS = $
Mkt Value = $415 million Profits = $80 million Has the “Southeast”
CEO achieved his
Shares = Shares = goal? A higher P/E
Suburban multiple?
Price = EPS =
Offer Potential Shares Shares Price ($) EPS ($) P/E Ratio
Session Overview
• Traditional rules of thumb about value creation can be misleading, and in some
cases harmful. We start our discussion with three important lessons:
– Lesson 1: Value is driven by growth, but not all growth is created equal
– Lesson 2: Driving towards higher multiples does not guarantee value creation
– Lesson 3: EBITDA & Earnings Per Share (EPS) often fail to measure value
• The value of a company can be traced to four key value drivers, core operating
profit, return on capital, cost of capital, and organic revenue growth.
– Value creation & the practice of finance is about evaluating tradeoffs. Although an action can
lead to an improvement in one metric like revenue growth, it may have an adverse impact on
other metrics, like return on capital.
– Every line of business, geography, customer group, distribution channel, must be thoroughly
evaluated for the potential of growth and profitability.
$80
EBITDA Reinvested
= $180 in business
Financial Term
$50
Reinvestment Rate (IR) = 50%
EBIT (1-T)
= $100 $50
Payout Rate = 50%
Returned
to investors
return. Growth in profits 5%
Company A Company B
• The CFO has asked you to take the lead on four financial analyses:
4. Is the deal EPS accretive? i.e. does earnings per share rise?
Mad Money
An Example: Cendant
Cendant's Credibility Problem; Why the conglomerate's plan to revive its stock has fallen flat on the Street
By Roben Farzad and Amy Barrett, Wall Street Journal
EXPENSIVE ACQUISITIONS
The reason for the lowered forecast? Tough times at Cendant's travel distribution and vehicle services divisions. Cendant
announced a $425 million charge in its travel distribution business, chiefly to write off its disastrous $350 million purchase in
2005 of Ebookers, Europe's No. 2 travel Web site. In December, management said it anticipated a charge in the range of $200
million to $300 million. Cendant also spent more than $1 billion apiece to buy out Orbitz and Gullivers Travel.
``Billions of dollars in cash flow should have been returned to shareholders,'' says Tim Fidler, director of research at Ariel
Capital Management LLC, which owns shares. Instead, the money went to expensive acquisitions.
All of which, say doubters, is destabilizing Cendant's balance sheet. Goodwill, or the amount paid for an acquisition above the
current market value, ``is turning into bad will,'' says Lee. Excluding Cendant's assets under management -- chiefly its rental
car operations, which are pledged against secured debt and therefore distanced from shareholders -- the company's goodwill
of $12 billion at yearend 2005 actually exceeded stockholders' equity of $11.3 billion, Lee calculates.
Company A
Reinvestment Rate (IR) 50% Growth = Reinvestment x Return on Capital
Return on New Investment 10%
Growth in Profits 5%
G = IR x ROIC
Company B
Reinvestment Rate (IR) 25% Company A: 5% = 50% x 10%
Return on New Investment 20%
Company B: 5% = 25% x 20%
Growth in Profits 5%
Session Overview
• Traditional rules of thumb about value creation can be misleading, and in some
cases harmful. We start our discussion with three important lessons:
– Lesson 1: Value is driven by growth, but not all growth is created equal
– Lesson 2: Driving towards higher multiples does not guarantee value creation
– Lesson 3: EBITDA & Earnings Per Share (EPS) often fail to measure value
• The value of a company can be traced to four key value drivers, core operating
profit, return on capital, cost of capital, and organic revenue growth.
– Value creation & the practice of finance is about evaluating tradeoffs. Although an action can
lead to an improvement in one metric like revenue growth, it may have an adverse impact on
other metrics, like return on capital.
– Every line of business, geography, customer group, distribution channel, must be thoroughly
evaluated for the potential of growth and profitability.
50 52.5 55.1
Value .........
(1.10) (1.10) 2 (1.10) 3
• In our simple example, cash flows grow forever at a constant rate. Therefore, we
can use the growth perpetuity formula to value each company.
Cash Flow1
Value
WACC g But what
determines
cash flow?
As Cash Flow rises, what happens to value?
As WACC rises, what happens to value?
As growth rises, what happens to value?
g
Profit 1
Cash Flow1 Profit(1 IR) ROIC
Value
WACC g WACC g WACC g
Substitution #1 Substitution #2
Cash Flow = Profit (1 – IR) Growth = IR x ROIC
g
Profit 1
Value ROIC
WACC g
Company B
Terminology used by Consulting Firms
Aggregate Revenues
1995‐2014 Company A
125 Enterprise value ($ billions) 204.6
Enterprise to EBITDA (x) 16.4
10.1%
100 Return on capital 40.0%
75
Company B
$ billions
Enterprise value ($ billions) 49.3
50 5.1% Enterprise to EBITDA (x) 10.4
Return on capital 14.3%
25
0
Source: Thomson Worldscope, First Call, Apr‐15
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Algeria
Belgium
g
Profit 1
Value ROIC
WACC g
ROIC
7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0%
• Assume your company earns a 15% return on invested capital, while growing
at 2%. The new CEO has argued the company should grow faster, even if it
means some sacrificing financial performance. What do you think?
• Assume your company earns a 10% return on invested capital, while growing
at 6%. The new CEO has argued the company should focus on higher profit
customers, even if it means reducing growth. What do you think?