BudgetingForecastingCoursePresentation 1547839506611
BudgetingForecastingCoursePresentation 1547839506611
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Budgeting & Forecasting
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Course learning objectives
11.
Identify reasons to use
dedicated budgeting tools
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CFI’s mission
Teach you to
03. perform world class
financial analysis
04. Advance your career
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CFI Instructors
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01.
Budgeting Within
A Strategic Framework
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Learning objectives
Explain how budgeting fits into Describe the purposes and Create a process for setting key
the overall framework of decision- uses of budgets in performance indicators (KPIs) that
making, planning and control organizations are both financial and non-
financial which drive the
budgeting process
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Strategic budgeting
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Barriers to strategy execution
Only 10% of organizations execute their strategy. The main barriers to strategy execution are:
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The importance of budgets
Budgets must link strategies to objectives; it is the tactical implementation of the business plan.
Strategic plan
Business plan
Now 5 year
objectives
Where we
are Where we
Budget want to be
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Translating strategy into targets and budgets
Translating high level strategy (mission, vision, goals, etc.) requires you to consider four distinct but
related dimensions:
What are you trying How are you going to What are output measures? Quantifiable
to achieve? achieve it? What must you What are input measures? Time-based
do to support the strategy?
01. Increase spend per 01. Average weekly spend per 01. $increase
customer customer 02. Volume increase
01. Expand product offering
02. Spend by product type 03. %staff trained in new
02. Source new suppliers
03. Average price changes products
03. Promotion and marketing
04. Pricing
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Kaplan and Norton’s balanced scorecard
Business performance should be measured from the perspective of strategy implementation rather
than relying simply on financial results.
Organizations need a balanced set of financial and non-financial performance measures and targets.
A balanced set of performance measures will ensure that the entire organization participates
in strategy implementation and should include:
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Scorecard perspectives
FINANCIAL
To succeed financially,
how should we appear
to our shareholders?
PEOPLE CUSTOMERS
MISSION
To achieve our vision, To achieve our vision,
AND
what capabilities must how should we appear
STRATEGY
our people have? to our customers?
OPERATIONS
To satisfy customers,
what operational
processes must we
excel at?
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Example scorecard measures
FINANCIAL
• Sales growth
• Operating margin
• EPS
• ROA/ROE
PEOPLE CUSTOMERS
• Qualified staff availability MISSION • Loyalty levels
• Retention levels AND • Brand image
• Performance levels STRATEGY • Customer satisfaction
• Employee satisfaction • Customer spend
OPERATIONS
• Inventory availability
• Productivity measures
• % orders on time/in full
• % IT budget on R&D
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What are our budgeting goals?
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What are our budgeting goals?
• By focusing on participation
• By providing a challenge/target
To control activities:
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What to watch out for
Budgets can become Budgets are rarely Budgets encourage Budgets are based Budgets may
a major barrier to strategically focused “gaming” on unsupported make people feel
responsiveness assumptions undervalued
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02.
Building a Robust
Budgeting Process
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Learning objectives
Build a robust budgeting Identify critical roles within the Appreciate the psychological
framework budgeting process aspects of budgets
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Building a robust budgeting framework
Operating
budgets
When combined, these budgets
generate a budgeted income
statement, a balance sheet
and a cash flow statment.
Capital
Cash
expenditure
budgets
budgets
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Types of budgets
Revenues and expenses Requests for large assets An estimation of the cash
for the various budget which create major inflows and outflows for
centers within an demands on an entity’s a specific period of time
organization cash flow
Used to assess whether
Budgeted amounts Buildings, renovations, the entity has sufficient
divided into major automobiles, software cash to fulfill regular
categories such as systems, furniture operations
revenues, salaries,
benefits, and non-salary Purpose to allocate Identifies whether too
expenses funds, control risks in much cash is being left in
decision making, and set unproductive capacities
Encompasses supporting priorities
info such as head counts
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Master budget for
a manufacturer
Sales budget
Production budget
Direct materials
Direct labor budget Overhead budget
purchases budget
Operating
budgets
Cost of goods
manufactured budget
Budgeted
income statement
Cash budget
Budgeted Financial
Balance sheet
budgets
Capital
budget
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Master budget
for a retailer
Sales budget
Operating
Purchases budget
budgets
Budgeted
income statement
Budgeted Financial
Cash budget
Balance sheet budgets
Capital
budget
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Master budget for
a service provider
Revenue budget
Operating
Labor budget
Selling and admin
Overhead budget
budgets
expense budget
Budgeted
income statement
Budgeted Financial
Cash budget
Balance sheet budgets
Capital
budget
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Operating budgets – where to start
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A budgeting process
Most larger companies start their budgeting process four to six months before the start of the financial year. Most
organization set budgets and undertake variance analysis on a monthly basis.
Establish objectives
Planning Communication
& targets
Implementation and
Board approval
management
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Budget psychology
Behavioral and social aspects are an integral part of the budgeting process and should not be
divorced from the technical side.
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The effect of budget target difficulty on performance
Expectations Optimal
budget Performance
budget
Budget
Performance
Personal goal
Actual
performance
Easy Difficult
Budget target difficulty
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Who should be involved?
Obtaining goal congruence is essentially a behavioral issue. Involvement in the budgeting process is of significant
importance in motivating managers.
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One word of warning regarding participation
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03.
A Practical Guide To
Developing Budgets
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Learning objectives
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Developing the budget
Value
Incremental
proposition
budgeting
budgeting
Activity–based Zero-based
budgeting budgeting
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Incremental budgeting
Incremental budgeting is a very simple method that looks at what was spent last year and then
adds or subtracts a percentage.
+x%
Last year’s Basis for this
actual figures year’s budget
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Incremental budgeting
This is still the most common way used to produce budgeted figures and it may be
appropriate if cost drivers do not change from year to year. However, it is:
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Output/input or activity based budgeting
Inputs are determined by outputs, not the other way around. Avoid starting by assessing the
resources you have and then trying to assess what is achievable.
The activities I
Output need to undertake
Input to achieve my
business aim
The cost
expectation of
delivering
these activities
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Value proposition budgeting
Why is this amount included in my budget? Has a need for this item been demonstrated?
Does the item create value for customers, staff, or other stakeholders?
Does the value of this item outweigh its cost? If not, is there another
reason why this cost is justified?
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Zero-based budgeting
Zero-based budgeting starts with the assumption that all department budgets are zero. Managers are
required to build their budgets from the ground up, justifying every penny they wish to spend.
Bottom-up budgeting can be a highly effective way to “shake things up”. It is most effective when there is an
urgent need for cost containment. However it is:
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Beyond budgeting
“The budget is the bane of corporate America. It never should have existed.” - Jack Welch, ex-CEO, General Electric.
“Beyond Budgeting” argues that firms today need to be more flexible and responsive to deal
with unpredictable change, hyper competition and increasingly fickle customers.
In essence, Beyond Budgeting entails a shift from a performance emphasis on numbers to one
based on people and institutional arrangements.
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Beyond budgeting principles
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Beyond budgeting principles
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04.
Forecasting Techniques
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Learning objectives
Better analyze costs for Effectively forecast revenues Use tools such as PEST
improved forecasting and expenditures using analysis and Porter’s 5 forces
quantitative techniques to aid qualitative forecasting
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Types of cost behaviour
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Types of modified cost behaviour
Volume of output
Volume of output
Volume of output
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Cost structures and earnings volatility
$ $
Revenues Revenues
Costs
Costs
Time Time
High fixed cost organizations have volatile earnings: small volume changes have material impact on profits
Organizations with low fixed costs have to generate large increases in revenues for modest increases in profits
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Cost structures and flexibility
Analyzing costs into fixed and variable highlights factors affecting the level and volatility of profits:
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Cost structures and flexibility
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Cost structures and flexibility
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Cost control matrix
High
and cost control potential. Start your cost analysis
with the budget items with the highest cost priority.
Cost significance
Medium
Don’t overlook small cost management opportunities.
These opportunities, if managed across an
organization, could be significant.
Low
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Quantitative forecasting methods
There are a range of widely used quantitative budget forecasting tools including:
Comparing one
Simple linear Statistical knowledge A sample of relevant
independent with one
regression required observations
dependent variable
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Moving averages
Moving averages is a smoothing technique that looks at the underlying pattern of a set of data to establish
an estimate of future values.
7 6.7 8.00
8 7.7 6.00
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Simple linear regression
Regression analysis is a widely used tool for analyzing the relationship between variables for prediction
purposes.
Revenues
May 96 15,000
$15,000.0
Jun 44 12,500 y = 78.075x + 7930.4
$10,000.0 R² = 0.9327
Jul 171 20,700
Aug 135 19,722 $5,000.0
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Multiple linear regression
When 2 or more independent variables are required for a prediction the analysis is referred to as multiple
linear regression.
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Multiple linear regression using Excel
Here the independent (X) variables are “Promotion” and “Advertising” while the dependent (Y) variable is
“Revenue”.
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Multiple linear regression results using Excel
If we expect:
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Qualitative forecasting tools
PEST is a useful framework for building expectations about the future and its impact on the budget:
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PEST analysis overview
Political Economic
forecasting forecasting
Identify
Anticipate Opportunities React
And threats
Social Technological
forecasting forecasting
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PEST analysis checklist
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Budgeting using Porter’s 5 forces
Porter’s 5 forces is a powerful tool for assessing industry dynamics and how industry dynamics may
impact budgets. Michael Porter identified FIVE forces driving industry competition:
Potential new
entrants and
barriers to entry
Threat of
substitutes
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05.
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Learning objectives
Outline how variances are Calculate variances and Build a variance dashboard
used to monitor and control interpret results report
a business
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What is variance analysis all about?
Variance
The difference between budgeted/expected cost
and actual cost; and similarly for revenue
Variance Analysis
The process of examining in detail each variance
between actual and budgeted/expected costs to
determine the reasons why budgeted results were not
met (material costs too high, sales prices too low, etc.)
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What is variance analysis all about?
Calculating Variances
Variances Budget
Sales Volume 100
Sales Value $1000
Variable Costs (500)
Fixed Costs (200)
Profit 300
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Who’s to blame – breaking down variances
Calculating Variances
Variance = (15)
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Sales volume variance
Variance = (50)
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Sales price variance
Variance = 90
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Variable cost variance
Variance = (45)
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Variable cost variance
Original variable 2.5m of material for each sales unit at a price of $2/m
cost budget 100units x 2.5m x $2 = $500
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Variable cost variance
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Fixed cost variance
Variance = (10)
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Summarizing variances
Variances
Sales price 90
Materials usage 90
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Investigating a variance – labour cost
Imagine you work at ACME Ltd. and the actual labour costs this month to produce
7,000 widgets are $84,000 over budget. Without breaking down this variance into
its core drivers, it is virtually impossible to get answers to the following questions:
Who is accountable?
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Investigating a variance – macro to micro
Total labour
variance
$84,000
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Investigating a variance – root causes
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Presenting variance analysis to management
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13 common dashboard mistakes
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Sample budget dashboard
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06.
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Learning objectives
Apply useful Excel Outline the pros and cons of linking Identify when to use
functions and tools when workbooks in building a budgeting dedicated budgeting tools
budgeting process
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Reporting results using pivot tables
Pivot tables are tools for dynamically summarizing, analyzing and reporting data. They allow us to rotate
(pivot) a summary data table so it can be viewed from different angles.
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Creating a pivot table
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Are you building a budgeting house of cards?
Are you building a budgeting house of cards made up of numerous Excel spreadsheets?
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07.
Conclusion
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Course learning objectives
05. 06.
Understand how to Learn about practical
track a budget’s applications of
performance with budgeting tools and
variance analysis techniques
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1. Learn how budgeting fits within a business’ strategic framework
Strategic plan
Business plan
Now 5 year
objectives
Where we
are Where we
Budget want to be
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2. Understand how to design a robust budgeting process
Operating
budgets
Capital
Cash
expenditure
budgets
budgets
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3. Understand practical ways of building a budget
Value
Incremental
proposition
budgeting
budgeting
Activity–based Zero-based
budgeting budgeting
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4. Learn how to use various forecasting techniques
Comparing one
Simple linear Statistical knowledge A sample of relevant
independent with one
regression required observations
dependent variable
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5. Understanding how to track a budget’s performance with variance analysis
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6. Learn about practical applications of budgeting tools and techniques
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