A Second Tech Bubble
A Second Tech Bubble
the recent tech rally as a bubble similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble. The
social distancing and the working f rom home strategy implemented in Dr. Marius-Cristian
Frunza
most big firms amid the pandemic were the main catalysts of this trend. Is
this situation sustainable? A halt of the qualitative easing could burst this
bubble?
climax. Its level is 2.4 times higher than its peak during the dot-com bubble.
There are many similarities between the current trends in the tech sector
and what occurred two decades ago. The enthusiasm around digitalisation
The only major difference between the two episodes is the fact that the
banks. QE is impacting the tech industry in many ways. The stock market
rush is a direct result of the money printing, but there are many other
by-products. Monies f rom QE are funnelled into the investment industry and
ultimately to the Venture Capital sector. VCs pumped and are pumping vast
amplifying the stock bubble and underpins the real risk behind this
end to QE, not only that stock market will collapse, but also the tech sector
Tech stocks are, without any doubt, hot and nice to have items in the short
term. But, building a long term strategy entirely on NASDAQ shares exposes
the investors to unqualified risk. So, the trend is your f riend, as long as a
reminiscent of the March 2000 dot-com bubble. As was the case then,
stocks that seemingly could only go up. While we don't know exactly
A small dip
Despite a significant correction that occurred last week, the S&P 500 is still
higher than it was one year ago. The uncertainty of the expected stimulus
package drove the markets into negative territory. The foreseeable no-deal
Tesla will be seemingly included in the S&P 500 index, thereby bringing
unicorn went f rom rookie position to the status of a global leader. Time will
Next year should bring many swings in the S&P 500 levels due to Tesla
Focus:
Airbnb
Airbnb made its glorious entrance on the secondary market. The first day
did not bring a massive jump, but this does not mean that there is no
Airbnb proved its resilience during the COVID crisis. Many analysts believed
that the coronavirus pandemic might hinder the online short-term renting
marketplace. But, the reality showed somehow the contrary, especially in big
and the market for short terms stays in urban areas was covered by Airbnb.
Focus:
Zoom
The COVID-19 crisis hammered the last nail in the coffins of many
businesses but made the success of a chosen few. Zoom is one of those
technologies that was emergent before COVID and became mainstream
after March 2020. The rate of adoption was very high, and except for a few
European institutions that are reluctant to use Zoom due to privacy issues,
there are not many companies which are not using it. The point is that the
growth perspectives are limited. So, Zoom needs to reinvent itself in order to
put some colour on its trends.
Focus:
Palantir
Since its IPO, Palantir saw the price of its share almost tripling in value.
Palantir started as an innovative company proposing anti-financial crime
software, but over its existence, diversified in may areas, where its
technology can provide intelligence. Palantir has good growth perspectives
in the foreseeable future and is one of the companies that could be a serious
competitor to the GAFAs. Thus, Palantir is, for sure a buy.
Market outlook
Dow Jones entered into negative territory and ended the week above
30,000 USD. There are uncertainties about the foreseeable stimulus
package, and the market stopped its rally. Moreover, assets managers may
rebalance their portfolios and mark the profits for the year-end, thereby
amplifying the market dip.
Bitcoin dipped and ended the week above 18,000 USD. The challenge to
climb above 20,000 USD is on the table. The significant number of
Markets are stalling
speculators aiming to make a profit in the short term contributed to the
market dip. Bitcoin believers and institutional investors see the potential for
Bitcoin to expand. Thus, Bitcoin is becoming slowly but surely a leading
asset in the investment, and we expect to see Bitcoin rising towards 20,000
but not earlier than 2021.
1 week
18,500
1,850
29,500
49
Dec 2020
19,000
1,860
28,800
48
Jan 2021
20,000
1,870
28,500
47
29,820.84 30,319.70
US Dow Jones Industrial Avg 30,046.37 -171.89 -0.57% 3.32% 6.79%
US VIX CBOE Volatility Index 23.31 2.52 12.12% 0.91% 92.01% 19.97 25.14
EMEA VA L U E CHANGE W E E K LY % M O N T H LY % Y E A R LY % W E E K LY R A N G E
3,461.47 3,557.39
EU EuroStoxx 50 3,485.84 -53.43 -1.51% 1.57% -6.78%
A PA C VA L U E CHANGE W E E K LY % M O N T H LY % Y E A R LY % W E E K LY R A N G E
26,327.08 26,894.25
JP NIKKEI 225 26,652.52 -98.72 -0.37% 4.43% 13.78%
CN HSI Hang Seng Index 26,505.87 -330.05 -1.23% 1.33% -1.81% 26,256.40 26,870.58
CN SSE Shanghai Composite 3,347.19 -97.39 -2.83% 1.12% 14.80% 3,325.17 3,452.16
AU S&P/ASX 200 Index 6,642.60 8.50 0.13% 3.71% -2.99% 6,590.20 6,745.30
SG STI Straits Times Index 2,821.70 -18.19 -0.64% 4.07% -12.16% 2,792.74 2,853.23
ID JKSE Jakarta Composite 5,938.33 127.85 2.20% 8.79% -3.28% 5,734.26 6,004.42
MY FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI 1,684.58 62.73 3.87% 5.97% 7.48% 1,621.85 1,689.77
TW Taiwan Weighted Index 14,261.69 129.25 0.91% 7.45% 20.49% 13,940.07 14,427.41
L ATA M VA L U E CHANGE W E E K LY % M O N T H LY % Y E A R LY % W E E K LY R A N G E
111,873.88 115,526.57
BR BOVESPA Index 115,128.00 1377.78 1.21% 9.94% 2.61%
MX S&P/BMV IPC Mexico 43,612.31 -33.72 -0.08% 8.12% -1.45% 42,651.59 44,606.31
PE S&P Lima General 20,474.00 -116.58 -0.57% 14.99% 2.32% 20,097.47 20,827.00
RESEARCH 05
Stocks US
TOP WINNERS PRICE W E E K LY % TOP LOSERS P R I C E W E E K LY %
1 AAPL Apple Inc $122.41 0.13% 79.49% NASDAQ 2.07T $121.78 $124.38
TECHNOLOGY
5 CSCO Cisco Systems $44.32 -0.14% 1.20% NASDAQ 185.61B $44.11 $44.69
6 GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A $1,774.80 -2.68% 31.77% NASDAQ 1.20T $1,767.65 $1,823.76
COMMUNICATION
9 DIS The Walt Disney $175.72 14.00% 20.04% NYSE 318.14B $153.24 $175.72
12 BABA Alibaba Group $264.54 -1.01% 29.10% NYSE 713.13B $263.80 $267.25
CONSUMER
CYCLICAL
16 WMT Walmart Inc $147.00 -0.92% 24.24% NYSE 416.22B $147.00 $148.91
17 PG The Procter & Gamble $136.51 -0.70% 11.49% NYSE 336.28B $135.51 $138.05
CONSUMER
DEFENSIVE
20 COST Costco Wholesale $375.10 0.45% 33.00% NASDAQ 165.04B $372.79 $377.60
23 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co $119.56 -2.27% -9.44% NYSE 362.43B $119.56 $122.34
24 BAC Bank of America $28.57 -2.46% -14.82% NYSE 246.11B $28.57 $29.29
25 PYPL PayPal Holdings $214.06 -1.70% 98.85% NASDAQ 252.31B $210.80 $217.93
$10.60 $11.39
INDUSTRIALS
28 LUV Southwest Airlines Co $45.88 -3.59% -14.95% NYSE 26.99B $45.76 $47.89
29 DAL Delta Air Lines $41.74 -1.46% -25.92% NYSE 26.62B $41.74 $42.95
30 UAL United Airlines Holdings $48.36 -1.79% -44.78% NASDAQ 14.20B $48.02 $49.91
iPath GBP/USD
3 IXSCF IXSCF 7.01 9.53% 3 GBB 0.20 -9.30%
Exchange Rate ETN
Vanguard FTSE
4 VNRDF 26.14 9.50% 4 POTX Global X Cannabis ETF 11.03 -9.29%
Canada Index ETF
TOP US ETFS VA L U E W E E K LY % M O N T H LY % Y E A R LY % W E E K LY R A N G E
2 VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $336.55 -0.96% 3.68% 15.48% $333.77 $340.93
4 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust $366.30 -0.96% 3.71% 15.44% $363.26 $371.05
6 IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF $367.62 -0.96% 3.70% 15.21% $364.62 $372.42
10 QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust $301.85 -1.20% 4.66% 45.69% $298.09 $308.60
18 GLD SPDR Gold Shares $172.49 0.10% -1.97% 24.05% $171.08 $175.93
INVESCO AMERICAN
1 ECC Eagle Point Credit Inc 10.43 8.63% 1 VAFCX 24.30 -10.00%
FRANCHISE FUND CLAS…
Vivaldi Opportunities GROWTH
2 VAM 11.88 7.66% 2 TGVYX 40.61 -10.00%
Fund OPPORTUNITIES FUND…
8 VFFSX Vanguard Instl 500 Index Trust $179.71 -0.95% 3.73% 15.51% $179.71 $181.59
18 FXAIX Fidelity® 500 Index Fund $126.87 -1.40% 3.25% 15.54% $126.87 $128.79
Brent Crude Oil 49.97 USD/bbl 1.46% 13.05% -14.58% 48.09 51.06
WTI Crude Oil 46.56 USD/bbl 0.65% 12.63% -22.67% 44.95 47.74
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 2.59 USD/MMBtu 0.62% -13.49% 10.68% 2.37 2.63
M E TA L S PRICE UNIT W E E K LY % M O N T H LY % Y E A R LY % W E E K LY R A N G E
3.45 3.62
INDUSTRIAL
A G R I C U LT U R E PRICE UNIT W E E K LY % M O N T H LY % Y E A R LY % W E E K LY R A N G E
Rough Rice Futures 12.47 USD/cwt 2.00% 0.81% -1.07% 12.25 12.52
GRAINS
136.58 139.85
LIVESTOCK
Live Cattle Futures 113.25 USc/lb 0.76% 0.91% -11.00% 110.55 113.80
RESEARCH 09
Forex
TOP WINNERS VA L U E W E E K LY % TOP LOSERS VA L U E W E E K LY %
OVERVIEW VA L U E W E E K LY % M O N T H LY % Y E A R LY % W E E K LY R A N G E
USDJPY US Dollar vs Japanese Yen 104.01 -0.14% 0.16% -6.79% 103.72 104.57
GBPUSD Pound Sterling vs US Dollar 1.3223 -1.61% -0.37% 1.94% 1.31 1.35
MAJORS
USDCAD US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar 1.2766 -0.13% -2.42% -3.46% 1.27 1.29
USDCHF US Dollar vs Swiss Franc 0.8893 -0.31% -2.37% -9.09% 0.89 0.89
AUDUSD Australian Dollar vs US Dollar 0.7533 1.47% 3.11% 13.65% 0.74 0.76
NZDUSD New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar 0.7070 0.31% 2.08% 11.46% 0.70 0.71
AUDJPY Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen 78.350 1.33% 3.28% 5.94% 76.86 78.78
AUDNZD Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar 1.0647 1.07% 0.93% 1.95% 1.05 1.07
CADJPY Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen 81.450 -0.04% 2.62% -3.45% 80.60 82.12
EURCAD Euro vs Canadian Dollar 1.5461 -0.22% -0.30% 7.78% 1.54 1.57
EURCHF Euro vs Swiss Franc 1.0770 -0.39% -0.24% 1.52% 1.07 1.09
MINORS
EURJPY Euro vs Japanese Yen 125.97 -0.23% 2.34% 4.09% 125.75 126.74
EURNZD Euro vs New Zealand Dollar 1.7118 -0.48% 0.02% 0.18% 1.71 1.73
GBPAUD Pound Sterling vs Australian Dollar 1.7549 -3.06% -3.40% -10.33% 1.74 1.82
GBPEUR Pound Sterling vs Euro 1.0915 -1.55% -2.52% -8.74% 1.08 1.11
GBPJPY Pound Sterling vs Japanese Yen 137.53 -1.75% -0.21% -4.98% 137.53 140.70
GBPNZD Pound Sterling vs New Zealand Dollar 1.8690 -1.99% -2.47% -8.55% 1.85 1.92
NZDJPY New Zealand Dollar vs Japanese Yen 73.540 0.18% 2.25% 3.84% 73.04 74.00
USDBRL US Dollar vs Brazilian Real 5.0656 -1.75% -7.18% 26.03% 5.01 5.23
USDCNY US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan 6.5445 0.20% -0.24% -6.26% 6.52 6.55
USDHKD US Dollar vs Hong Kong Dollar 7.7512 0.00% -0.02% -0.46% 7.75 7.75
USDINR US Dollar vs Indian Rupee 73.736 -0.05% -0.52% 2.98% 73.50 73.98
EXOTICS
USDMXN US Dollar vs Mexican Peso 20.132 1.84% -1.15% 6.50% 19.68 20.19
USDRUB US Dollar vs Russian Rouble 72.903 -1.64% -4.01% 13.72% 72.83 74.61
USDSEK US Dollar vs Swedish Krona 8.4560 -0.02% -1.67% -12.95% 8.35 8.52
USDSGD US Dollar vs Singapore Dollar 1.3363 0.05% -0.44% -4.45% 1.33 1.34
USDTRY US Dollar vs Turkish Lira 7.8562 0.68% 1.95% 28.87% 7.74 8.03
USDZAR US Dollar vs South African Rand 15.123 -0.60% -2.17% 0.77% 14.87 15.29
RESEARCH 10
Crypto
Active Cryptocurrencies BTC Dominance ETH Dominance Total MarketCap Total Volume 24H
8 BCH • Bitcoin Cash $266.85 -4.62% 2.66% 29.34% $5.0B 258.30 294.17
9 BNB • Binance Coin $27.920 -3.79% 0.61% 82.25% $4.9B 27.08 30.39
11 USDC • USD Coin $1.0000 0.01% 0.02% -0.30% $3.2B 0.95 1.05
18 LEO • LEO Token $1.3717 0.64% 5.27% 55.89% $1.3B 1.34 1.38
23 ETC • Ethereum Classic $5.9530 -1.16% 17.51% 56.41% $736.2M 5.61 6.31
RESEARCH 11
This Week Events
RELEASED EARNINGS PRICE I M PA C T R E V E N U E E S T /A C T E P S E S T /A C T SURPRISE D AT E
UNFI United Natural Foods $15.58 -14.54% $6.91B / $6.67B 0.74 / 0.51 -30.89% Dec 09
COST Costco Wholesale Corp $375.10 0.47% $43.05B / $43.21B 2.86 / 2.29 -19.91% Dec 10
ORCL Oracle Corp $60.61 1.35% $9.94B / $9.80B 0.88 / 1.06 20.59% Dec 10
AVGO Broadcom $405.82 -3.58% $6.53B / $6.47B 5.34 / 6.35 18.88% Dec 10
FLR Fluor Corp $16.77 -6.16% $3.98B / $3.80B 0.32 / 0.14 -55.64% Dec 10
ABCL AbCellera Biologics NASDAQ $14 / $58.9 320.71% 23.00M 449.65M Dec 11
RESEARCH * bmo – before market open, amc – after market close, dmh – during market hours 13
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