Constitution Federal Republic of Lebanon Maps e v5
Constitution Federal Republic of Lebanon Maps e v5
for the
September 2020
This document was prepared by Iyad Georges Boustany in compliance with PRINCIPIA POLITICA Politics & Ethics under Scaling and Uncertainty
Nassim Nicholas Taleb ( www.academia.edu/38433249/Principia_Politica )
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I – Preamble
(Taken as is from the Opening Preamble of the Swiss Constitution)
The Swiss People and the Cantons, mindful of their responsibility towards creation, Resolved to renew their alliance so as to strengthen liberty,
democracy, independence and peace in a spirit of solidarity and openness towards the world, determined to live together with mutual consideration
and respect for their diversity, conscious of their common achievements and their responsibility towards future generations, and in the knowledge
that only those who use their freedom remain free, and that the strength of a people is measured by the well-being of its weakest members; adopt
the following Constitution:
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Lebanon is the aggregation of four (4) different national narratives (“Roman Nationaux”), deriving from four (4) distinct “Cultural Groups” (each also
referred to as an “Ethno-Cultural Group” or a “Group” or an “Identity” or a “Community”) living side-by-side on the territory that is currently the
Republic of Lebanon, are distinct groups of individuals sharing within each Group and amongst themselves a specific set of values, beliefs, references,
history, and background. The members of these Groups are specifically registered as Lebanese nationals. The four (4) Groups are the Sunni, Chiaa,
Druze, and Christians.1
While each Group keeps its national narrative, history, references, hopes and dreams, culture, civilization, and religion, each Group has agreed to
enter into one supra national entity called the Federal Republic of Lebanon.
Each Group will be able to administer and handle its own affairs within its own Canton/Region under laws each Group decides to impose upon itself.
After being adopted by all four Cantonal Parliaments, the Federal Parliamentary, meeting in public session in Beirut, confirmed, signed, and
promulgated the Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Lebanon. The Basic Law is hereby published in the Federal Official Gazette.
Lebanese in the Chiite, Druze, Sunni and Christian Cantons, have decided to live amongst themselves in peace and prosperity. This Basic Law thus
applies to the entire Lebanese population organized under the four (4) ethno-religious Groups.
All the provisions of the current constitution shall be amended and replaced by this Basic Law.
The present Basic Law shall prevail in case of any contradiction between the present Basic Law and any previous text, law, decree, constitution,
decision, order, or judgement.
This federation deed is valid until 2099 and will be resubmitted for vote at that time. It can be terminated earlier in certain instances where the
federal government ceases to perform its function or under certain other conditions stated herein.
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As a matter of Fact, the Christian Group is diverse and is composed of various Sub-Groups. For the purpose of this Federal Constitution, the Sub-Groups will be considered
as one homogenous group. The Cantonal Laws will have to agree with each Sub-Group of their reserved rights, requirements, and representation. More specifically, it is
provided for in this Constitutional document that all positions within the Canton are open to all Canton Citizens without distinction. Therefore Armenians, Greek Orthodox,
and Maronites, among others, all have access indiscriminately to all positions. As for parliamentary representation, some Sub-Groups may want to have “reserves seats.”
The matter will be discussed and resolved at the Cantonal level.
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The Federal model has three (3) governance layers: Municipalities, Canton/Region, and Federal. Within the Christian Ethno-Cultural Groups, there
are several communities.
All Lebanese Nationals shall also be Canton Citizens (depending on the Group they belong to) and Municipal Residents (depending on their elected
primary domicile). The political rights and obligations stem from the Lebanese Nationality, the Cantonal Citizenship, and the Municipal Residency.
There are two (2) electoral colleges, one for the municipal elections and another for the cantonal elections.
The Municipal Electoral College is based on residency (ie Municipal registration of residency), and therefore, all residents over eighteen (18) can
participate as voters irrespective of their belonging to a particular Group.
The Cantonal Electoral College, tasked with electing members of parliament as well as the cantonal prime minister, is comprised of all the men and
women belonging to the relevant Group irrespective of their residency. Voters vote based on their “hometown” of birth. The system retained herein
is two-round “uninominal” i.e. an electoral system that elects one Member of Parliament from each district (as redefined herein see maps attached).
The voting system is designed to elect a single winner where a second round of voting is used if no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first
round (“scrutin uninominal majoritaire à deux tours”). For avoidance of doubt, all voters have to belong to one same Group (with possible
accommodation within the Christian Group for positive discrimination to ensure representation of sub-Group sensibilities like Armenians, Orthodox,
etc….).
Cantonal elections are held to elect (i) Cantonal Parliament and (ii) the Canton Prime Minister. Parliament and the Prime Minister are elected for
four (4) year terms.
All four (4) Canton Prime Ministers compose the Federal Government. And they choose the eldest among them to serve as the President of the
Federation for one (1) year. The four (4) Canton Prime Ministers rotate thereafter by age.
Parliamentarians of each Canton compose the Federal Parliament. The President of the Federal Parliament is the president of the Cantonal Parliament
chosen by age (the eldest to the youngest) for a period of one (1) year.
Each Canton is geographically delineated as being the aggregation of all the municipalities belonging to such Canton. The Municipalities belonging to
a Canton are those whose native electors/residents at the time of the approval of this Basic Law compose at least 67% of that Canton’s Ethno-Cultural
Group.
A Cantonal Citizen is a person belonging to the Ethno-Cultural Group of his canton irrespective of his Municipal Residency. The Municipal Resident
is any resident of any municipality. Municipal Residents vote in the municipality in which they reside.
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Here are some basic indicative reference numbers. These will be firmed out once the maps and the statistical work is finalized.
1. The number of Canton MPs are proportionate to the overall population. It is expected to be around: 100 Christian, 100 Sunni, 100 Chiite,
and 25 Druse.
2. There should be 1 MP for each 10,000 inhabitants. For the rationale behind the suitable electoral law, see attached Appendix B.
President
Canton Prime Canton Canton Prime Canton Canton Prime Canton Canton Prime Canton
Minister Parliament Minister Parliament Minister Parliament Minister Parliament
The above schematic describes the cantonal elections (i.e. per Group members) for legislative and executive powers. Another schematic will describe
the vote of each residence in his municipality, such vote to happen based on residency and irrespective of the Group to which one belongs.
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Article 18 Sovereignty
(1) Cantonal sovereignty is the ultimate source of sovereignty. The Federal Government has no sovereignty rights over the Cantons or the
municipalities.
(2) Sovereignty is derived from the collective will expressed by Cantonal Citizens.
Article 21 No bellicosity
(1) Acts tending to and undertaken with intent to disturb the peaceful relations between nations, especially to prepare for a war of aggression, shall
be unconstitutional. They shall be criminalised.
(2) Weapons designed for warfare may be manufactured, transported, or marketed only with the permission of the Federal Government.
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and populate their rightful seats (in parliament, in government, or any other position). It is irrelevant whether this no show is deliberate or not.
The reason for the no show is also irrelevant.
(4) Any canton that fails to fill his position within the Federal structure and its various administrative and governance bodies cannot use such void
to claim any unconstitutionality or oppose any decision made in its absence. Any position unoccupied by a representative of a Canton shall be
occupied by another Canton (or alternatively left void). And all decisions will be made by the Federal authority remain as valid and legal and
enforceable as if made when such position was filled by a representative of such Canton.
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Article 43 Vacancy
If the Federal President is unable to perform his duties, or if his office falls prematurely vacant, the member of the Federal Government who is next
in line to become President shall take his position until the end of the current mandate. The next in line will then continue his own term.
Article 44 Unanimity
Orders and directions of the Federal President shall require for their validity the countersignature of the other three (3) members of the Federal
Government, except that such number can differ as in instances provided for in article 32.
less in case of boycott or absenteeism as provided for in article 32, without such lower number questioning its legitimacy.
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n.
prevention of the abuse of economic power;
o.
the promotion of agricultural production and forestry, ensuring the adequacy of food supply, the importation and exportation of
agricultural and forestry products, deep-sea and coastal fishing, and coastal preservation;
p. measures to combat human and animal diseases,
q. admission to the medical profession and to ancillary professions or occupations, as well as the law on pharmacies, medicines, medical
products, drugs, narcotics and poisons;
r. the economic viability of hospitals and the regulation of hospital charges;
s. the law on food products (including animals used in their production), the law on alcohol and tobacco, essential commodities, and
feedstuffs as well as protective measures in connection with the marketing of agricultural, forest seeds and seedlings, the protection
of plants against diseases and pests, and the protection of animals;
t. maritime and coastal shipping, as well as navigational aids, inland navigation, meteorological services, sea routes, and inland
waterways used for general traffic;
u. road traffic, motor transport, construction and maintenance of long-distance highways, as well as the collection of tolls for the use of
public highways by vehicles and the allocation of the revenue;
v. medically assisted generation of human life, analysis and modification of genetic information as well as the regulation of organ, tissue
and cell transplantation;
w. natural resources and onshore or offshore fossil fuel
(2) In the event of variance, divergence, conflict, or contradiction between Cantonal law and Federal law, the Cantonal law shall always prevail.
Article 61 Matters
(1) The federal financial administration, and the administration of certain federal assets like ports or airports shall be conducted by federal
administrative authorities with their own administrative substructures.
(2) A federal law may establish Federal Army authorities and central offices for police information and communications.
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(3) All government and/or social institutions (i.e., NSSF) whose jurisdiction extends beyond the territory of a single Canton shall be administered as
federal corporations under public law. Canton authorities can set up similar institutions dedicated to operating exclusively within the boundaries
of the Canton.
(4) New federal corporations and institutions under public or private law may be established by a federal law for matters on which the Federation
has legislative power.
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(2) If a Cantonal Constitutional Court, in interpreting this Basic Law, proposes to derogate from a decision of the Federal Constitutional Court, it
shall seek to obtain the consent of the Federal Constitutional Court within 90 days. Absent such consent, the decision of the cantonal
constitutional court shall prevail.
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f. municipal taxes on capital gains and transactions, insurance, and bills of exchange;
g. municipal income and corporation taxes;
h. other taxes for specific public infrastructure
(4) The financial requirements of the Federation and of the Canton shall be coordinated in such a way as to establish a fair balance, avoid excessive
burdens on taxpayers, and ensure uniformity of living standards throughout the federal and cantonal territory.
(5) Revenues and expenditures of municipalities and associations of municipalities shall also be deemed to be revenues and expenditures of the
Canton.
Article 86 Financial administration of the Federation and the Cantons – Financial courts
(1) Federal fiscal revenues shall be managed by the federal finance authorities.
(2) Cantonal fiscal revenues shall be managed by the Cantonal finance authorities. Municipal fiscal revenues shall be managed by the Cantonal and
municipal finance authorities.
(3) Where taxes accruing wholly or in part to the Federation are administered by a Canton’s revenue authorities, those authorities shall act on
federal commission.
(4) To the extent this is efficient, a collaboration between Federal and Canton revenue authorities in matters of tax administration is encouraged.
(5) The administration of taxes whose revenue accrues exclusively to municipalities or associations of municipalities may be delegated by the Canton
to municipalities or associations of municipalities, wholly or in part.
determine whether public finances have been properly and efficiently administered by the Canton and/or Federation. For the purpose of the
audit pursuant to the first sentence of this paragraph, the Canton and/or Federal Court of Audit may also conduct surveys of authorities outside
the Cantonal and/or Federal administration.
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Article 100 Continued applicability of law – issuance of instructions and legal acts
(1) Disagreements concerning the continued applicability of law as federal law shall render it null and void.
(2) Insofar as law that remains in force grants authority to issue instructions, this authority shall remain in existence until a Cantonal or Federal law
otherwise provides.
(3) Insofar as legal provisions that remain in force as federal law grant authority to issue general administrative rules, such powers shall pass to the
authorities that henceforth have competence over the subject matter. In cases of doubt, the Federal Government shall decide in agreement
with the Cantonal Governments.
(6) Administrative agencies and other institutions, public administration (including, but not limited to, the administration of justice) for which no
agreement was reached on Cantonal allocation within 6 months following the date of this Constitution, shall be liquidated. The Federal
Government, with or without the consent of the concerned Cantonal Governments, shall provide for their dissolution or liquidation and the
Federal government is not authorized to budget for their expenses or incur any cost thereupon.
(7) Corporations and institutions under public law not directly subordinate to a Canton nor based on agreements between Cantons shall be
cancelled and liquidated. No corporations and institutions under public or private law shall be maintained if (i) not directly subordinate to a
Canton nor (ii) no agreements for which between Cantons has been reached.
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(1) Civil and political rights and duties shall be neither dependent upon nor restricted by the exercise of religious freedom.
(2) In each Canton, and at the Federal level, enjoyment of civil and political rights and eligibility for public office shall be independent of religious
affiliation.
(3) No person shall be required to disclose his religious convictions. The authorities shall have the right to inquire into a person’s membership of a
religious society only to the extent that rights or duties depend upon it or that a statistical survey mandated by law so requires.
(4) No person may be compelled to perform any religious act or ceremony, to participate in religious exercises, or to take a religious form of oath.
(5) Notwithstanding the foregoing, it is acknowledged that religion is a crucial component of the identity and the national narrative of each Canton
in Lebanon. No individual person can invoke this Basic Law or any of the provisions herein or any human right or other “right” to try and modify
the Cantonal Basic Law or any restriction therein imposed by any Canton on eligibility or any other law. Laws, rights, and obligations in any
Canton can only be modified by another Cantonal Law.
(6) The right to preserve each Canton’s national narrative, history, and religion is a Basic Law, as well as the right to preserve the “carte postale.”
No claim by any individual or group to modify laws and regulations set by a Canton in preservation on its “carte postale” is admissible in Cantonal
or Federal court.
(7) The freedom to form religious societies shall be guaranteed.
(8) Religious societies shall regulate and administer their affairs independently within the limits of the law that applies to all. They shall confer their
offices without the participation of the Canton or the civil community.
(9) Religious societies shall acquire legal capacity according to the general provisions of civil law.
(10) Associations whose purpose is to foster a philosophical creed shall have the same status as religious societies.
(11) Such further regulation as may be required for the implementation of these provisions shall be a matter for Cantonal legislation.
(12) Property rights and other rights of religious societies or associations in their institutions, foundations, and other assets intended for purposes
of worship, education, or charity shall be guaranteed.
(13) Holidays recognised by the Canton shall remain protected by law as days of rest from work and of spiritual improvement.
(14) To the extent that a need exists for religious services and pastoral work in the army, hospitals, prisons, or in other public institutions, religious
societies shall be permitted to provide them, but without compulsion of any kind.
(15) The four (4) national narratives are the founding principle of the federation.
(16) Each of the 18 named communities are identified as founding communities of the federation. As the right to believe and the right to disbelieve
to “atheism” or “agnosticism” is also a founding principle.
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achievements.
Article 124 Appointment and dismissal of Cantonal and Federal Ministers – Oath of office
(1) Cantonal Ministers shall be appointed and dismissed by the Cantonal Prime Minister.
(2) On taking office, the Cantonal Prime Minister and his Ministers shall take the oath before the Cantonal Parliament.
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The primary criterion (community-based) that we have chosen works on the assumption that each community will elect its representatives. That the
Sunni representatives will be elected by the Sunnis, the Maronite leaders by the Maronites, the Shiites by the Shiites, and so on. Actually, to deny
the predominance of the community in Lebanese politics is to ignore the scientific and objective approach and to rush into ideological
presuppositions, to potentially allow religious, cultural, political or personal considerations to take precedence.
The secondary criterion involves limiting the electoral body to a geographical area. I believe that the areas should be divided up using an approach
which takes into account different circumstances. Imagine a community with 200,000 voters. Let’s imagine that this community has the right to 4
seats. By dividing the number of voters by the number of seats allocated to the community, we can work out the number of voters required to elect
a deputy from this community (in this example, 50,000). For this community, the Lebanon will be divided into 4 zones which include 50,000 voters.
Should the situation arise, splitting a geographic area with historical consistency should be avoided (as far as is possible), in order not to introduce
artificial distortions of the shared pasts of the residents.
Let us remember that there is no point trying to use the secondary criterion without the first criterion, or to try to force the secondary criterion to
take precedence over the primary axis. To (genuinely) want a representative electoral system (as is the aim of any electoral system designed with
integrity) while retaining the geographical apportionment as the primary criteria would amount to opting, at best, for a single-member constituency.
This is the system I would consider «second best». But this «second best» brings about inequality among citizens that no legislator, or at least not
one who wants equal citizens’ rights, can allow. This inequality would affect tens of thousands of our fellow citizens who belong to communities
which find themselves in a minority in a single-member constituency. An example of injustice caused by the small electoral (single-member) districts
themselves is that of the Shiites in Byblos, who find themselves with no political rights and without sound representation, all in the name of a
misleading ideology and based on empty, dogmatic slogans on unity and living together in harmony.
Differentiated democracy, as it proposed here, is also based on analysis of the human reality as it presents itself to us, and as described by one of the
greatest sociologists of organization. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is these days recognized as reflecting the needs of Mankind within political, social
or commercial organizations. Maslow himself said that there is no point trying to meet a higher need until the need below it has been satisfied. Yet
at the very bottom of the needs of Man, we find the need for security (hence the need for community recognition – primary criterion – which meets
and guarantees this need). After this need for security comes material need, followed by the need to meet intellectual requirements (political
programs, etc.…), a secondary criterion in our analysis. There is much to be said for transposing Maslow’s analysis onto the world of political
organization, but that is not the scope of this paper.
The adoption of the electoral system we recommend is the first essential step towards (genuine and necessary) State reform. The proposed system
of differentiated democracy will result in (i) a reduction in communitarianism (and resentment within communities), (ii) the path to the process of
political parties and ideologies opening up, and (iii) the creation of a ‘matrix’ parliament or congress.
Let us consider the electoral system currently in place in the Lebanon. Let us take the case of a majority community in a given district. The candidates
who are part of the majority community really need to have a sectarian position for the following reasons: (i) to mobilize the voters who are part of
this community (stimulating feelings like fear is a very strong incentive to mobilize and draw voters to the polls. An example would be the use of
terminology which references disasters, such as «tsunami»), and (ii) secondly, to win the maximum number of votes in the competition between
candidates from this same community (aggression and a warlike stance towards others is seen by the public as proof that they care about their
community). Thus, in the context of a mixed electoral body, which is the situation in Lebanon at the moment, the structure of the electoral system
inexorably and systematically creates a movement which revolves around and is intensified by a sectarian approach. This is what I describe as
«communitarianism».
But what about the minority? The candidates who belong to the minority community in an electoral district have no chance of being elected unless
they are «on the list» or «co-opted» by the majority community in that district (this is the case in the current Lebanese system). Therefore, they will
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need to take a line which is out of touch with their electoral base and more in line with the views of a majority community (which their success or
failure depends on). As is often the case, a candidate from the minority community will receive the (vast) majority of votes within their community
(because they take a line which reflects the views of their community, but which is therefore poles apart from the views of the other majority
community in this district), but they will still not be elected for all that. This failure, which is written into the very nature of the electoral system and
which repeats itself in exactly the same way from one election to the next, creates a strong feeling of frustration in the minority community in this
district and develops what I call «community resentment.»
Communitarianism or community resentment are created and developed by the current electoral system, which is based on geographic area as the
primary criterion.
In the proposed electoral system (Differentiated Democracy), a candidate will no longer win under cover of taking a position which plays on fear of
the Other, as the electoral body is made up only of members of the community and their rights are in no way threatened. What’s more, competition
is between candidates who have just as strong ties to the community (or who see themselves in that way, at least). In any event, another community
doesn’t have the option to legally favor with his vote the candidate who is seen as being less tied to the community. The unfortunate candidates
(there are always more unfortunate candidates and there still will be in a democracy) will not be able to put forward sectarianism, the extremism of
the other community to justify their failures in the election, which would considerably reduce the stirring up of feelings of hatred or vindictiveness
towards Other people. Thus, this electoral system reduces inter-community friction. The fact that each community elects its own representatives
reduces the stirring up of communitarianism (intra-community) and community resentment (inter community).
A « matrix » parliament
One could reasonably expect to see that the structure of the congress to come out of an electoral system like this would be matrix by nature, since
each representative would have a double mandate; one to represent their community, the other to represent their political party/ movement/
ideology. This congressional structure is similar to what we see in the European parliament, where the representatives are elected by national voting
bodies, but on the basis of their political affiliation. German Communists (socialists, liberals, nationalists, green parties…) sit with French, Spanish,
Italian and other Communists (socialists, liberals, nationalists, green parties…). Similarly, Maronite liberal members of congress will sit with Sunnite,
Druze, Shiite, Orthodox, Catholic, etc. liberals and will form a block for the promotion of their common ideas. Likewise, with Communist, Green,
Socialist, Religious… groups.
Let us imagine that the legislator were to adopt the proposed system of Differentiated Democracy, and let us take for example the case of Casa du
Chouf. Let us imagine that there are 7 Druze candidates in the running (2 communists, 2 socialists, 2 liberals and 1 from the green party). Let’s imagine
that the Druzes from Chouf have elected a socialist representative and a green party representative. I am convinced that the socialist Druze
representative will swell the ranks of the Orthodox, Sunnite, Shiite or other socialists of the assembly, while the ecologist representative will join the
other ecologist representatives from the other communities. The proposed system is first and foremost representative, but it also has the advantage
of being simple, effective, honest and flexible.
That still leaves the question of whether the electoral seat itself should be allocated to a community. A priori it does not seem necessary to tie the
condition of belonging to a certain community to the mandate of the representative. If a Catholic or a Sunnite has the favor of the Shiite electorate
of Beirut, there’s no reason which would justify that they (the members of the Shiite electoral body) could not elect him. We do not see any
justification or argument which would support a ban (by rights) on an electoral body (as defined above according to primary and secondary criteria)
having the right to give votes to a candidate from another community. The only constraint to such a reform right now is the number of representatives
per community as defined and fixed in the Taef agreements. In fact, if for example the electoral body (i) which is Sunnite (primary criterion) and (ii)
from Saida (secondary criterion) chooses a representative who turns out to be Druze, because he conveys ideas that better represent them than all
the other candidates, the number of Druze members of parliament would increase by one representative, while the number of Sunnite members
would decrease by the same amount, which contravenes the Taef agreements. So, for now, we need to keep the combination of seat and community
affiliation of candidates.
An overview of the proposed electoral system offers a satisfactory solution to this problem. Actually, as demonstrated above, the proposed system,
by «neutralizing» the denominational factors in the political equation will move the debate to the area of ideas and political ideals. Yet, the expression
of political ideologies is weaponized by and through the political party, which will be reflected in the necessity for political parties. This development
of parties and non-denominational political groupings will manage the constraint of the number of representatives per community. The current
system pairs the seat with a community, we propose to try to get rid of this pairing at a later date, so that the electoral body may give votes to any
eligible person irrespective of the community they belong to.
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One of the arguments put forward by critics of fully representative projects is that the number of Christians in congress is not proportional to the
actual number of Christians in the Lebanon. So, they suggest that a certain number of Christian representatives be elected by Muslims. This proposal
gives rise to the following considerations:
1. Would the proportion of Christians in the total population be what it is, if we remove from the statistics hundreds of thousands of
Palestinians and Syrians who have been naturalized illegally and in such a way as goes against the Taef agreements and the constitution?
2. Would the proportion of Christians in the total population be what it is, if we add the hundreds of millions of Lebanese Christians living
abroad and who have been banned from voting for several decades?
3. Can we ever think in constitutional law or conflict management in multicultural societies that we can correct one injustice with another?
Have we not learned that this only creates frustration, hate and extremism?
But why this over-representation of Christians, if over-representativity there is? First of all, because it is not as obvious as some people would have
us think. Secondly, because it is the only method the delegates of Taef have found to guarantee the rights of Christians in an environment where
there are no examples to convince them that these kinds of guarantees are not necessary.
Once the fundamental problem has been identified (that is, the necessity of having constitutional mechanisms to protect the rights of Christians), it
remains to be seen how to resolve it. We are opposed to the very principle of over-representation of any community whatsoever. Therefore, we
need to look elsewhere for a means of protecting the rights of communities. This is where the notion of a congress with a matrix structure reveals all
its power and flexibility. In fact, within a congress like this, the subjects to be debated are generally classed into two types: (i) subjects which do not
affect, directly or indirectly, the rights of any community, and (ii) the subjects which directly or indirectly concern the rights of one or more
communities. All the subjects which do not concern directly or indirectly the rights of any communities are discussed directly in a full session, and
voted on by qualified majority (which could be a simple majority). However, any subject which affects the rights of a community must be approved
beforehand by the members of congress who belong to the relevant community. If they have been elected by their community, as we propose,
representativity will be strong and the risk of «suspicion», cultural isolationism, fanaticism or rejection are low. The number of seats reserved for this
or that community can then evolve freely depending on the size of the community in relation to the total population.
This solution resolves the problem of the protection of communities’ rights, as well as that of the number of seats per community (proportional to
the size of the community in question, in relation to the population). We only need to think of the example of the reform project of the Druze
community to be reminded of the ridiculous situation we are living in (and the poor quality of the Taef document). The members of parliament from
the other communities could have – and the president of the republic actually did- block this project, which does not affect them in any way! A good
example of the absurdity of non-differentiated democracy.
The philosophical justification of all of the above can be found in works which are today considered as authorities on democracy, multiculturalism or
human rights theories (and practices), as much because of their scientific rigor as the coherence of their approach and the empirical validation of the
models they put forward. Here I am essentially referring to the works of: Michael Walzer (Sphere of Justice, Pluralism and Democracy), William
Galston (Justice and the Human Good), Nicholas Rescher (Distributive Justice), Blandine Kriegel (Philosophy of the Republic), Will Kymlicka
(Multicultural Citizenship, The Theories of Justice), Sylvie Mesure, Jean Baubérot, Alain Peyrefitte. The following pages will be set out as follows:
The social pact which binds the members of a group can be explicit, but is more often implicit. It is a bond where identity, history, mythology, common
beliefs, the relationship with Others, with the earth and with the hereafter, come together. To explore this notion, one needs to look at each of these
aspects.
Aristotle stated that « the Republic is a community of free men ». The term « community » is telling, because it goes directly back to the principle of
coming together, of agreement, of a pact. The notion of free men goes back to the notion of voluntary membership, which goes against forced
membership or the modification of the pact (after joining) against the will of some of the people. It is well-known that the vast majority of Christians
in the Lebanon did not sign up to Taef. That does not mean that they don’t want a fair solution for all parties or that they are choosing to wage war.
But it is to say that they would have liked a balanced pact, which the parties could sign up to. Aristotle again states that the republic is a system of a
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civil bond, with the aim of good living and the general interest. Here again we find the notion of a pact (civil bond) at the heart of the republic.
Moreover, Aristotle sets out that the republic is a community (koinomia) and not a people (ethnos) . Thus, the community and the social pact are the
two fundamental aspects of the political organization.
It is edifying to see that Aristotle and the entire line of Roman jurists who followed him restricted democracy to the community. The laws only had
value between the members of the city , in other words, those who adhered to the pact. Rome based its res publica on the status rei publicae: the
civil bond . This restriction was long seen as a flaw in the French political tradition. The French universalist approach could not understand that the
pact could be anything other than universal. It is only when faced with the eminently modern notion of community, the will of citizens to differentiate
themselves (or to be recognized as such) and to have differentiated rights for different groups, that the French philosophical tradition rediscovered
the relativity of the pact and the restriction of the scope of electoral regulations and laws to a specific group within the Nation-State. We find this
idea of the pact gain strength in the Christian message, which significantly contributed to the development of pairing republic and democracy: the
people agree to the law, through a pact. From then on, and for the first time, civil identity is no longer based on territory or ethnic filiation, but on
the adherence to a pact (the Covenant between God and mankind). The notion of pact as the basis of the republican system can also be found in
Saint Augustin, who formalizes this by asserting that only those who comply with the New Covenant (love, peace and justice) will be able to lay claim
to the benefits of the City of God, also limiting the effects of the pact to those who adhere to it. Saint Augustin, whose argument is not neutral,
wanted to discredit and reclassify the Roman republic, by arguing that there never was a Roman republic, because the organization of the Romans
was based on inequity and injustice . In any event, and as far as we are concerned, the models of the Roman republic and the Augustinian republic
are both based on a pact, and could only be applicable within the community or to the members of the community.
It is futile to try to date the birth of the republic. The debate around this question goes far beyond the scope of this paper, which is limited to drafting
an electoral system for multi-ethnic republics. It is however important to note that after Aristotle’s Greece, the Roman Empire (and the Roman
republic) and Saint Augustin, it was the turn of Saint Thomas Aquinas to confirm the principle according to which the first society (the smallest state)
is an institution, a consortium (again, the notion of a pact). As for Hobbes, he uses the term vinculum, pact or contract. A pact of submission,
according to Pufendorf, or a pact of association according to Rousseau. The foundation of a Republic is not based on force. The main attribute of
power is legislation and not the army. Yet, when you talk about a legislative base, you are actually talking about a pact from the start or even a
constituent pact, which these days we call a constitution. The sovereign weapon is not the sword, but the law, which in Anglo-Saxon terminology is
« common law » (common to the members of the community). Whereas, in Lebanon, there are 17 «common laws» .
The distinctive feature of a republican State is that it transfers sovereignty to the people rather than to a monarch or to the aristocracy. This
sovereignty is conferred and protected by and through the pact, implicitly or explicitly, and works from the assumption that the « co-contractors »
are free and equal. Blandine Kriegel, representing Bodin, asserts that the very genesis of the rationalization of the sovereign State contains an
elementary term of the pact: freedom.
Thus, at the start there was the pact. This pact can take different forms, but it always exists and it always precedes the development of republican
community life. The pact can be internal and institutional in nature, based on the shared history, and transmitted by the collective consciousness or
by way of an explicit contractual bond. All we need to do is to look at our sociological context in the Lebanon honestly and objectively to see that
each of the Lebanese communities has its own past, its own history and its own martyrs, its own reference system. Thus, everyone has a pact which
binds the different members of the community together, and the democratic process can be applied within it. Thus, each community represents the
normal and natural context of free and responsible political expression of each of its members. As for the national pact, it plays an organizational
role within a geo-political space which is simultaneously united and differentiated, in order to allow citizens to realize their potential within a viable
social, economic and political framework, which respects the different interests.
For Aristotle, there are only two forms of government: a government which seeks the common good, which is called republican, and a government
which looks out for personal interests, and is qualified as despotic (the personal interest may be that of a group or a community, to the detriment of
another community). To work and to govern in the public interest in multicultural societies works with guarantees and the differentiation of rights
of different groups and communities. To work and to govern for private interests is also to work and to govern in the interest of one group to the
detriment of another. The denial of rights, and particular the right to sound political representation, means that the system tips over into what
Aristotle calls despotic. The examples of the Christians of Tyre or of Beirut, the Shiites of Jbeil or the Sunnites of Zahlé are very telling. In fact, these
groups do not have any political rights at all, as their representatives are «named» by other groups. Thus, the system in force (and any electoral
system based on geographic area as the primary criterion) is fundamentally unjust .
The aim of the democratic process is to ensure sound representation of the different political opinions of the population within the political authority
created to that effect, which we call Congress or Parliament. This assertion, which may seem trivial, poses two major conceptual problems: (a) the
fact that in all democracies, the representatives are systematically elected by groups and not by the whole population, and (b) the fact that the
democratic process does not have any other role than sound representation.
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Therefore, the idea of the group is in no way in contradiction with the democratic approach, either in principle or in fact. This notion is not new: for
a long time now, the French and Anglo-Saxon approaches have been opposed in the perception of the role of the group in the relationship between
citizen and state. The French approach is described as universalist, whereas the Anglo-Saxon approach is classed as differentialist. The first approach
concentrates the rights in the hands of individuals, whereas the second confers the rights upon groups (communities) of collective rights, which are
superior to individual rights. These days it is recognized that the two approaches are in no way contradictory and that both give groups more powers
than individuals. The essential distinction stems from the criteria chosen to define a group, and the reasons for this are historical. In France, a
supremely homogenous country, the regional and geographical aspect is chosen as primary criterion to define the group, whereas Belgium,
Switzerland, Canada, the United Kingdom (heterogeneous countries), choose the community as the primary criterion, paired with other criteria
depending on the circumstances, such as geographical area as a secondary criterion. In order to see which system better reflects the reality in the
Lebanon, we find ourselves asking trivial questions, such as whether the Lebanon is a homogenous or a heterogeneous country, monoculture or
multicultural. I do not even dare to answer, as it is so blindingly obvious!
Once we have accepted the idea that only a sub-group of the population is called to elect a representative, the question becomes how to ascertain
this subgroup? In countries with a homogenous culture, the geographical criterion seems to prevail, through common thinking, perceptions, history,
experience, problems and concerns which are all specific to the residents of a same geographical area. In multi-ethnic countries like the Lebanon,
the primary criterion for defining a group cannot be anything other than the community, possibly paired with a secondary geographical criterion. So,
we need to group together into an electoral body the population by communities, then by Casa, or district, so that we have a coherent electoral body
which will result in real representativity, which will in turn guarantee real political expression for its citizens.
As we saw above, in any democracy the electoral body is made up of sub-groups of citizens. Yet, there are two types of groups, depending on the
social fabric. In «homogenous», monolithic countries, the electoral body is made up of a group which adheres locally to a same social pact which
binds all the citizens overall. The local electoral body, in charge of electing their representative, is a sub-group of the national pact. They share with
other subgroups, and all the citizens who share the same values, their strict adhesion to the same pact and they do not differentiate themselves by
very subtle local specificities which could be linguistic intonation, a local historical past or some symbols which are specific to this geographical area.
The essential values are all shared to a very large extent with the rest of the population. The local pact and the overall pact overlap. This is the reason
why the primary criterion for defining the electoral body (the pact) is not visible to the naked eye. An informed analyst, with an exhaustive scientific
coherent key for understanding, can see it. But for everyone else, the only criterion chosen is the geographical criterion. This primary criterion for
determining the electoral body is neutral, because the local pact and the overall pact overlap. The voters are interchangeable and undifferentiated.
The same cannot be said in multi-ethnic (or even multi-cultural) societies, where subgroups merge with the culture or ethnicity or language
accordingly. The members of the community make up the subgroup, which is the electoral body.
Let us develop this notion of (sub-) group. It is recognized that any shared values (religious, social…) are experienced in groups. This group, defined
under the name of community, comes together around a common theme and seeks to obtain or to retain rights which are specific to them. It is
edifying to see how the French political system, historically opposed to the constitution of communities, had to review its thinking in the context of
the regulations of the Muslim faith. The establishment of the French Council for Muslim Faith (or CFCM, Conseil Français de Culte Musulman) is the
first step in the start of a dialogue between the Muslim community and the Administration. In spite of this advance in the direction of recognizing
community realities, French political thinking remains fiercely opposed to the application of differentiated rights. The principle which guides the
French approach remains that the application of laws in an undifferentiated way is the guarantee of the rights of everyone. The so-called issue of the
Muslim headscarves confirms this tendency. This approach tends to become minor on the overall scale both in continental Europe and in the Anglo-
Saxon democracies, where communities have specific rights which neutralize the laws which «by being applied indiscriminately to everyone could
have a discriminatory effect on a single group of people, by imposing obligations and restrictive conditions upon them which do not affect other
citizens» . In fact, it is now recognized that discrimination is not only the fact of acting in a discriminatory way, but also the effect of a seemingly
neutral measure or will (which is not differentiated like the law on the Muslim headscarf). Canada, as well as having a federal system, and as far as
the federal principles are concerned (which in theory should be shared principles), has gone so far as to introduce the notion of « reasonable
accommodation », which imposes an obligation to accommodate and even modify norms and practices to take into account the needs of a group.
This tendency of differentiation in laws is not only motivated by philanthropic approaches or for the sole purpose of opening up the scope of
freedoms. Differentiation of law is also driven by economic considerations.
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Political will and the expression thereof in terms of political decisions is another aspect influenced by the political construction of the republic.
Multicultural democracies which benefit from a system of differentiated rights (among others, the election of representatives by each group) are
systems where political decisions cannot ensue from the process of judicial arbitration. This empirical observation is linked to the system of «checks
and balances», which is inherent within differentiated systems. At the other end of the scale, unitary or monolithic systems have a propensity to base
decisions on the administrative bodies. These models are described as administrative. The differentiated model is essentially based on the principle
of subsidiarity , where decisions are taken as close to the citizens and by the group concerned as possible, and this decision is then « validated » by
the national or federal authority, inasmuch as (i) it does not go against common principles, or (ii) it does not have an impact on the other groups .
The decision follows the process (understood not as a discrepancy, but as a test), and the opposing parties, according to a predefined outline and
which gives the « lead » to those who are primarily concerned. Therefore, the parties buy into the process. The differentiated model assumes the
process, the argument, the comparing and contrasting of the parties, the sentencing after the event, the fragmentation and specification of the
action. The administrative model projects the arbitration of a will, without necessarily gaining the adhesion of those concerned. The administrative
model accommodates orders, but not consent. The administrative model ends up coming up against democratic aspirations and the every-increasing
needs for liberty. So, we are in the pre-eminence of the administrative right over the justice requirements of the time, where the Lebanon essentially
requires a frank, transparent, suitable and just process.
The example of civil marriage in the Lebanon speaks volumes. A study by the PNUD shows that a majority of Christians are in favor of civil marriage,
whereas a majority of Sunnites and Shiites are opposed to it. The State of Lebanon, based on the administrative model, was unable to settle the
question, whereas a differentiated approach to the question would have led to an adaptation of the rights in such a way as to ultimately do the best
thing for the well-being of individuals. But is the differentiation of rights fair, egalitarian and ethically recommended This is the question we will look
at below.
III. Equality and differentiated rights
The main argument put forward against differentiation of rights is that «the differentiation of rights affects the equality of individuals». I am going
to demonstrate in the following paragraphs that this statement is totally wrong, first of all by using an argument about the form around the very
construction of the sentence, and then a substantive argument around the notion of equality.
This statement is false in that individuals do not have the same rights in any case. People do not have equal rights: a Lebanese person does not have
the same rights as a French person living in France. Thus, a more correct statement would have been: «the differentiation of rights could damage the
equality of individuals within a same State or a same political entity.» The defenders of an undifferentiated monolithic approach know perfectly well
that by expressing a correct and coherent sentence, they therefore put forward an argument which destroys their theory. The correct assertion
implies recognizing the fact that people do not have the same rights everywhere, and that rights change or are applied in a differentiated way,
depending on whether we adhere to this pact or another pact (this adhesion is materialized by documents of national belonging: identity cards). This
inequality of people’s rights is in no way seen as an injustice. It is fully justified by the intuitive statement: «I don’t have the same rights, because I
don’t have the nationality», implying «because I don’t belong to the social contract linking all the holders of the nationality.» Once we recognize this
logic, (and it is universally accepted), all we need to do is to transpose it to the national multicultural context, where several social pacts are
superimposed within a same geopolitical entity. The same logic can be applied: different rights, or differentiated rights, according to whether one
belongs to one pact or another. A Walloon Belgian cannot vote with Flemish Belgians. So, he does not have the same rights, because he does not
have the most important one: the right to political expression materialized by the right to vote, and this within the same Belgian State.
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In reality the equality of rights is perfectly assured in differentiated legal systems. The equality of rights is even better assured in differentiated legal
systems than in unitary systems. Let us look at two examples of this, that of days off and that of civil marriage. The egalitarian approach assumes
that all the citizens of a State take Sunday off (or Saturday or Friday). This same approach assumes civil marriage for everyone or for no one. We are
going to see how in these two situations, «equality» is flawed, it is just «cosmetic» and badly masks inequality, hegemony, or even segregation.
The whole misunderstanding between the advocates of egalitarianism and the advocates of differentiated rights stems from the fact that they are
not applying their reasoning to the same objects. To take Sundays or even Fridays off is not a right in itself which requires people to have equal
access. Having such and such day off is nothing more than the consequence of a right, which is the right to rest within a cultural frame of reference.
Citizens must have the same rights (they must have equal rights), not in terms of the consequences, but in terms of causes. The State needs to ensure
the same rights for the principles held by individuals or groups of individuals. The application of the egalitarian principle leads us to work towards all
citizens, in a totally undifferentiated way, having the same right to have a day off which is in line with their beliefs and their culture. Let’s take the
example of civil marriage. Let us look at the results of the PNUD study, where the Shiite and Sunnite communities are as a majority opposed to civil
marriage, and where the Christian communities are as a majority favorable to it. Let us imagine that the Lebanon were made up of a 100% Sunnite
population. A referendum would have been equivalent to a rejection of civil marriage, and those (from the Sunnite communities) who voted for civil
marriage would need to fall in line with the majority opinion (within a same social pact). Now let us imagine that the Lebanon was made up 100% of
Maronites. A referendum would have led to civil marriage being adopted, and those who had voted against it would have to fall in line and go to the
town hall before a church wedding (let us remember that the application of the rules of numbers are only possible between members of a same
social pact). Now let’s get back to the Lebanon as it is today, that is, a grouping (or should I say a federation) of communities which are all minorities
(even if one of them had been a majority, it would not have changed anything for the mechanism that I am trying to describe). The pseudo-egalitarian
approach would not be able to reach a decision. To adopt civil marriage for everyone is pseudo-egalitarian (from that flawed egalitarianism that we
saw above is not really equal and is also fundamentally unjust). To reject it for everyone is also pseudo-egalitarian. But which of the two options
should we choose? Let us imagine that the State decides not to adopt a law which makes civil marriage compulsory or allows civil marriage. This
decision is (to simple minds) egalitarian in the sense that it is the same for everyone. But in reality, it is profoundly inegalitarian because it does not
treat the relationship of each group to this issue equally. As we demonstrated above, equality assumes the same treatment to the same requests for
justice, choice and liberties which are made by individuals or groups. Yet, in the case where the choice of civil marriage would be rejected by all
citizens, the State would have treated the request of a group in the decision not to introduce civil marriage without answering the request of the
other group who would want it to be introduced. So, there is no equality of treatment, and therefore no equality of rights. The same thing would
have happened if the State had taken the opposite decision. By introducing civil marriage for everyone, the State would have claimed to be making
an egalitarian decision. But it is not, because it is not allowing individual choice of the individuals and groups in the same way, by agreeing to the
legitimate request of one group and refusing another (contrary) legitimate demand from another group. As well as being inegalitarian, retaining just
one or other of the choices is unjust. Whereas the solution is to agree to the legitimate requests (taken from the majority within each group) in both
cases. Here equality and justice will be applied in full. This approach is nothing more than the differentiated system that we are proposing to reform
the State. The differentiation of rights will allow multicultural groups to continue to evolve, each in their own way and in continuity with their own
history, while keeping the same geo-political rooting.
We have just shown how the differentiated approach allows equality and freedom between citizens, both within the community and overall, to be
preserved. In both cases, the differentiated approach maximizes social well-being and increases the scope of freedoms.
The process of secularization signifies the weakening or even the suppression of religion as an aspect of national identity. Yet, as we shall
demonstrate, the religious factor is an integral part of the culture, and the disappearance or weakening of this factor would diminish the cultural
identity of the group. This reality can be sensed by the members of the group who automatically «huddle up» around their religion, even in the
absence of any religious feelings or religious faith. Likewise, those who preach secularity often do it with the aim of weakening the cultural bases of
the other group and with the aim of better establishing their own domination. This falls within the domain of the conflict of civilizations, and not that
of scientific research of the suitable structure for co-government. We are far from searching objectively and in good faith the most representative
electoral process.
The absolute assertion that the election of representatives be done by the largest number is nothing more than a demagogic and simplistic statement
which is only used in the most anti-democratic countries and with the most anti-democratic people. This affirmation neither strengthens democracy
nor encourages groups to come together. It results in a reduction in the quality of representation and contributes to reinforcing the climate of
suspicion between communities. This instrumentalization of the universal only masks a desire for domination. In order not to take an example based
on the many political positions in the Lebanon, let us remember the time where French secular (anti-Catholic) schools discriminated against left-
handed people by forcing everyone to write with their right hand . This practice highlights two realities which are in contradiction with the idea of
extending the field of liberties and developing equality between individuals, first of all by forcing through « democracy by numbers » a totally unfair
decision (the vast majority of students being right-handed). And then, knowing that the Christian tradition had filled people’s minds with the notion
that the left-hand side is harmful, by validating the thesis according to which the cultural phenomenon, however «secular» it claims to be, cannot
get away from its past. Thus, however anticlerical, atheist or agnostic one claims to be (in good faith), I suspect that we cannot leave our own cultural
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frame of reference behind, which is inevitably filled with religious phenomena we have experienced or inherited through the culture. From this arises
the fact that electoral models (and more generally, government systems) based on the process of the « undifferentiated majority », arguing that de-
sectarianism or «secularity» looks very much like models with a hegemonic vocation whose ulterior motive is the cultural and even religious
enslavement or destruction of the Other.
For all that, secularity is not a negation of all religions. Other than the fact that secular systems can accommodate one or more religions in the
population, secularity claims its own religion: a «civil» religion, or a religion of the citizens. Secularity contributes to weakening the links between
groups of a same community, which contributes to weakening the community in question (which is where the reluctance, conscious or unconscious,
of the members of the community comes from, who see in secularity an attack on their culture and their way of life, rather than an attack on their
religion itself), and transfers the religious phenomenon by making the identity group of a national collectivity sacred. The destruction of a pact for
another pact is only possible in a multicultural society if all the communities buy into the process, the new religion, the new pact. This assumes
membership of this «civil religion», which now forms the common beliefs. This is light years away from the reality of the Lebanon. The attempt in
1943 did not have positive buy-in (the 1943 pact is an act of renunciation), at best people hypocritically gave up their culture (Arab for Muslims and
Western for Christians), only for each group to come back to it decades later. To speak of civic religion means new common rites, new common
cultural landmarks, a new scale of common values (without necessarily everyone having to give up their original religion). But in that case, is it possible
that the Lebanon of today gives up the days off which are specific to each community to set up new « neutral » days for the glory of secular religion?
What about civil marriage? Successions? Deaths? Because these are just a few telling examples which only touch the fringe of the questions and
some of its most trivial practical aspects without touching on fundamental cultural differences, and in particular the relationship to the Other. Are all
men equal in rights according to the different religions? Can we assert that the relationship with Other people is the same according to Christianity
and to Islam? Is the same thing true of Shiite Islam and Sunnite Islam? Do we have the right to allow a secular model which is more inspired by one
model more than the others to prevail?
To design a secular project is to think of the state as a superstructure that has no history and no direction and no purpose. Any process which would
tend to give meaning to the State is a process which inevitably is part of the history of this State, and at the end of the day is nothing more than the
history of the groups which make it up. To say that the Lebanon is a country with a message, as Pope John Paul II said, is to place it back in its historical
perspective at the crossroads of the civilizations, of histories, cultures and languages. So, it is to validate its multicultural aspect, while seeking to
pacify and to harmonize. An approach which is total contradiction with the project of secularization. At the end of the day, the public sphere is never
neutral. France as a Nation-State was not able to leave its history and its heritage behind. Every day, their political, economic and social action
reminds them and reminds us how the project fits into the course of their history. The homogeneity that the Nation-State seeks comes from the fact
that a dominant group, or a group with a dominant will, wants to organize communal life in continuity with this history and to ensure the continued
existence of this culture. The secular project is therefore in essence hegemonic. The people who have worked on this historical project with a vague
hegemonic desire set the symbols as per their own history in defiance of cultural and religious or linguistic otherness of the other groups, all under
the cover of secularity. The symbols are just as much the choice of public holidays, the content of history lessons and other elements specific to the
Department of Education, public symbols and ceremonies, as well as the official calendar. This is all the more true as the French model is now
described as majority communitarianism . To introduce rights which are specific to groups/ communities, to differentiate the law is now recognized
and proved as being a necessary increase of freedoms in this inexorable movement which tends towards the extension of freedom and equality. The
references to universalist models or quite simple majority models or so-called majority models (in the sense of the numbers game regardless of the
social pact) seem in reality in their vast majority to be hegemonic, self-centered models which have no other purpose or ultimate aim than the
destruction of the culture of the Other under the guise of and through the application of secular ideology.
Scientific research on a common living environment for multicultural groups requires us to answer all these questions honestly. Therefore, secularity
can only survive by destroying the edifice of community social pacts in order to create, almost from the ground up, a new specific pact. So, we will
need to disregard all the historical baggage of the different communities in the construction of this new pact, both collectively and individually.
Suppose that the secular project is a success, would we be within our rights to ask ourselves whether it was all worth it? To allow the different cultural
groups to live together, did we not have to destroy diversity? Is the unified political organization (unitary Nation-State and undifferentiated
citizenship) an end in itself? Have we not thrown the baby out with the bath water? Have we not sacrificed diversity to allow coexistence? Can we
still talk of coexistence when all people are undifferentiated? Coexistence between whom?
V. Differentiated democracy and political unity
It may also be the case that we want to assign the electoral process functions other than the function it was originally designed for (i.e. the best
representation of political opinions), and to seek or desire a «unifying» role or an integrating role (or in some cases a separating role). This idea is not
inherently bad, insomuch as this desire to unify does not end up distorting the primary function of the electoral system, which remains sound
representation. Out of two electoral systems which both have the same fairness of representation, it is understandable from a political point of view,
and ethically acceptable, to choose the one which favors inter-community cohesion and greater national unity.
This question amounts to comparing the proposed electoral model of Differentiated Democracy to other models, because like any man-made thing,
the proposed system is not without its imperfections, and it is only in relative terms that we can best judge it.
We need to start by setting the objectives of the proposed model. Differences between the theoretical model and empirical reality are accepted.
What we reject outright is any electoral model or system which results (knowingly or unknowingly) in a structural difference between a professed
model and a desire for domination. By that I mean the unequivocal condemnation of an ideological position which uses «democracy by numbers»
terminology, «political anti-denominationalisation» or «large districts to unify the population» with the clear goal of domination of one group over
another.
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To sort the electoral systems and rate them better, let us start by listing those which have already been implemented, and as any tree is recognizable
from its fruits, let us judge them based on their results.
It seems possible to classify the electoral systems in a matrix which shows the level of representativity and the unifying impact of an electoral system.
Strong representativity
3 Single-member constituency
6 Political anti-denominationalism
7 Single constituency
Weak representativity
Contrary to what is extolled by a certain political class, there is no contradiction between the objective of fair representation and that of a unifying
impact of the electoral system. The more representative the electoral system is, the more the groups will enter into dialogue and understand each
other. The less representative and transparent the electoral system is, the greater the discord, suspicion and defiance which will take root within the
different communities. Therefore, to seek the greatest representativity amounts to aiming for the greatest chance for dialogue and national unity.
The electoral systems implemented since Taef have been based on large districts. The result of this was disastrous in more than one way: the quality
of the congressional representatives, their level of representativity, the legislation and reforms implemented, the evolution of the law and the
extension of the field of freedoms, as well as economic growth. In 15 years of parliamentary government based on the model number 5 above, the
country is poorer, uglier, more polluted, more corrupt, more dictatorial, more unequal than ever. A tree really is recognizable by its fruits.
Let us take a step backwards to try to evaluate the systems implemented before the war. To be convinced of their mediocrity, one just needs to
remember that war only starts once dialogue stops. The electoral systems put in place since 1943 have not allowed dialogue between communities
to start, which led to armed conflict. This observation is enough on its own to disqualify all the models concerned, unless we refuse to learn from our
mistakes. Admittedly the representatives dialogued, but the communities themselves did not anymore, and this was for the simple reason that the
representatives did not represent the population (the populations). Another strong argument which is enough to sweep aside all the systems formerly
in place, is the comparison in terms of growth indices. The figures are damning for the representatives and for the system which allowed them to run
for their seat. Let us think about where the Lebanon is in terms of democracy, literacy rates, human rights, growth rates, wealth, GDP, distribution
of wealth, hospital beds per inhabitant, doctors per inhabitant, compared to countries like Spain, Portugal or Greece. These countries were still
dictatorships in the 1980s. Where are they today? We don’t even dare to make the comparison; it would be too humiliating for us.
Only people who were insane or reckless could propose political systems again, which have failed and had a huge human cost (number of dead and
injured), social cost (poverty levels) and economic cost (destruction of wealth and debt levels) from the diagram above and in particular: the current
system based on Mohafaza and Casa. The effects of these systems in terms of impoverishment (see the following section on growth and political
systems) will be hugely increased and the speed of decay of the State accentuated exponentially if we adopt electoral systems which increase the
gap between the people and their representatives, and in particular: a single constituency and political Desegrationalisation (systems 6 and 7 in red
in the diagram above).
The only other political system that the Lebanon has known (after the end of the feudal system and the destitution of the princes of blood) was that
of the Moutasarrifia between 1861 and 1913. We are too far from this period, which is why we are proposing rethinking, practically from the ground
up, a viable and just political system.
We do not refer to the pseudo-democratic models proposed or implemented to accommodate the desire for domination of this community, or to
deal with the sensibilities of that community, or worse still to accommodate the other sensibility of such and such politician. The only thing that can
come out of that is more misery, more poverty, and another civil war in 15 years’ time.
38
iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
The “Lebanese Government Reform Program” (Draft for Discussion) released on or about April 6, 2020 (referred to herein as the “Document” or the
“Program”) is a good first attempt to describe the reality as it is. For this, the government did a good job.
However
The document is stuck between an unconvincing attempts to blend a short-term rescue plan with a long-term structural reform vision.
Taken as a rescue plan, the document seems overly ambitious. It will most likely fall short of the expected numbers by several billion. This would be
easier to stomach if a path was designed and disclosed to the public. Going off track without a direction is a social disaster and a recipe for social
unrest. But, going short of budgeted numbers yet marching steadily in an upward direction goes a long way in appeasing people and cementing them
to double their efforts and consent to sacrifices.
The document avoids saying what Lebanon is. What it should be. What its place is in the new global order. How it should be reorganized.
No mention is made of Hezbollah.
No mention is made of the c.2m Palestinians and Syrians who are de facto present on Lebanese soil.
No mention of subsidiarity, decentralization, or multi-order fiscal structure.
A friend just reminded me of a couple useful words of wisdom which quite eloquently sum up the shortfall of this government and of the “Program”:
Lebanon has changed. It is no longer the same country it was in 1920 or even 1943. The centralized, top-down, monolithical governance system
inherited therefrom (and made worse by Taef) works no more. To reform and succeed, we have to change the governance system to espouse the
current reality of the multi-cultural, decentralized, localistic aspirations of all Lebanese.
The present paper intends to show a clear path out of the present degraded situation the country is in. The plan is to initiate two parallel tracks.
The first track is called “Cut an Arm” strategy and is a series of action (an action plan) summarized in the schematic and explanations below (in
Cut an Arm section). The second track is an immediate initiation of a structural reform of the social construct revolving around federalism.
The entirety of arguments, comments, and explanations highlighted herein are all arguments in favor of “Cut an Arm” and “federalism.”
39
iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
Timeline/Priorities IMF first and then Restructure/Cut an Arm, then sell gold, then eventually some IMF funding
restructuring
Electricity EDL Proceed with current Adopt LFRE plan (based on energy mix optimality with renewable as core)
plan
Global Free Trade Keep as is Moratorium on all free trade agreements to prioritize local production
Agreements
Confidence Will come from Comes from federalism, decentralization, and “Cut an Arm” strategy
rebuilding IFI/IMF involvement
Growth and GDP GDP will grow GDP can only grow if the structure of governance is in symbiosis with the
because this is what reality of its constituents i.e., a system that is based on “ethos” and “trust”
we put on the Excel is in place (for more on this, see paper published by your truly)
model
Public Not mentioned Crucial. Train, Metro and/or Tramway are key. The argument advanced by
Transportation some IFIs that it is not lucrative is incorrect. It was feasible and lucrative in
the 1890s and 1930s although with a lesser density of population.
Debt to GDP 91.9% in 2020 Impossible under the presented scenario, numbers don’t add up except if
they go for Cut an Arm strategy which is not what is presented herein
Export of financial Will diminish because Will increase because banks’ off-balance sheets “advisory” and money
services banks’ balance sheets management can be developed
will shrink
Government Debt Not willing to write Totally unclear and unrealistic strategy. I recommend “Cut an Arm”
off Eurobond. Limit
possible principal
discount to “Domestic
Debt”
2 Cut an Arm strategy is a restructuring strategy that is swift, comprehensive, and brutal but salutary. It is based on the least cost path (when comparing this to the cost of a lost decade with
its toll of poverty and unemployment) and equitable allocation of losses. This strategy is detailed in P.10.
40
iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
Depositors Depositors might be The make whole will be needed to rebalance FX exposure. For credit risk,
« Retour a made whole from a depositors are ready to make a reasonable haircut (as detailed in Cut an
meilleure Special Fund Arm strategy below on page 10), and ultimately better to go for a highly
fortune » capitalised with capitalized banking sector. As for FX risks, royalty interests in the oil and
reclaimed stolen gas fields seem like the best way forward.
moneys
Deposit Possible to sell state You don’t want to know what I think of this idea! All current state
counterparty assets (companies) assets are worth a mere fraction of the losses.
Capital Markets Enact operating laws, It will not change a thing. The flaw is in the lack of understanding of what
decrees, etc. markets are and how they function. Markets are industries with
Information as input and Prices as output. To have a good market, you
need good information. Most of what is needed is in the registry of
commerce. Reform this, put it online, and all will flow. Otherwise, garbage
in, garbage out.
Land registry Reorganize and Don’t touch it. World Bank wet dream to meddle with the most complete
improve legislation in Lebanon. Focus on registry of commerce. The EU was built on
the IV and the XIII directives which focused on the importance of the free
flow of information a key growth booster
41
iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
P.1 Para. 3 “The current severe economic and The government’s key statement and diagnosis of the reason that led
financial crisis has its roots in a long to this crisis are flawed. The economic policies put in place the past 30
history of excessive reliance on large years could have worked. It is easy to criticize in hindsight. At the same
foreign currency inflows and failed time, had alternative policies been in place over the past 30 years, they
attempts to execute credible economic would have equally failed. Which means the ailment is not in this or
policies.” that economic policy. The ailment is much deeper, and we all know it.
Reality is that Lebanon after Taef is not the Lebanon of 1920 or of 1943.
The model of a centralized, secular, top-down government that
worked and delivered growth. It was relatively well-suited for a
monoculture environment and a single-community dominated society
(massively Christian).
When one doesn’t diagnose the ailment correctly, the likelihood is that
the proposed cure won’t work.
P.2 Para. 5 “However, this crisis cannot and should Dogmatic statement without any scientific substantiation. I was not
not be tackled by Lebanon alone. No able to find in this Document any valid logical and scientific argument
reform agenda, as ambitious as it could explaining why the IMF and other lenders are needed. At some point,
be, can be implemented when the a mention is made about the need for IMF to “ensure hard currency
economy is in free fall. Stabilizing the for the purchase of necessity items over the short term.” But it would
economy is an immediate priority that be helpful to explain how and why this is needed and why there are no
requires substantial foreign financial other possibilities. Why would a debt from the IMF be better than the
assistance.” debt from other sources? It is “smart money”? Does it come with some
sort of a performance guarantee?
42
iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
I have seen and computed alternative plans that do not need any
IFI/IMF involvement. The matter has nothing to do with the IMF. What
we are contesting here is the take-up of additional debt at a time we
need to deleverage our balance sheet, NOT further leverage it.
P.3 Para. 1 “….hence external support was crucial for Does this mean that the government insists on getting IMF funding
any program’s success before even before debt restructuring? If so, this is extremely dangerous and the
thinking about restructuring the debt.” government would be shooting itself in the foot (or more importantly
shooting the depositors in the head). The reason for this is that once
the IMF lines are in place, the main creditors of the government (i.e.,
banks and BdL) would be in a position to push even more for a “lost
decade” strategy, arguing all will be fine if given time.
This is the heart of the quid pro quo around this “IMF/IFIs support.”
The Houlihan letter dated April 9, 2020 clearly indicated it is backing
up the call for IMF involvement. For a reason. It would be naïve for the
government to think its main creditor (i.e., Banks) is supporting such a
move in the best interest of government or depositors. In reality, once
IMF is involved, the bargaining power of the parties change
dramatically . . . in disfavor of the government!
For more details on the conflict between the parties, see paper issued
by Iyad Boustany called “Prospect Theory, Governing Elite Delaying
Reforms” January 2019.
P.3 Para. 2 “A comprehensive debt restructuring I personally failed to find this comprehensive debt restructuring
Bullet#1 strategy that decisively addresses the strategy in this Document.
debt overhang”
P.3 Para. 2 “• A strong phased fiscal adjustment, A real reform of the existing fiscal order would be to set a policy in a
Bullet#3 focused on improving tax compliance, strategic direction and initiate actionable steps in the indicated
direction. Globally, it is admitted that the optimal systems revolve
around what is called Fiscal Federalism, as detailed by World Bank
specialists Robin Boadway and Anwar Shah (Fiscal Federalism,
Cambridge University Press, 2011).
• Moving to a more flexible exchange
rate policy beyond the near term to We are informed of a 30% to 60% expected official currency repricing
lessen the strains on the balance of (devaluation of LBP to USD) before July 2021.
payments and improve competitiveness
• An ambitious national anti-corruption Since the root-cause analysis is flawed, it is likely that the proposed
strategy, addressing the roots of a major measures will fail miserably (and officially “be delayed”). In Lebanon,
impediment to growth and social justice one cannot treat corruption as in Europe or as defined by the World
Bank or the IMF. The major corruption in Lebanon is driven by
communities’ leaders –– a cast that is stronger than central
government. They benefit from popular support because they surf on
groups’ self-preservation instincts. Failing to address this reality is the
single main flaw in the government’s analysis. To deal with corruption,
one has to go local. Empower local authorities, develop bottom-up
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Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
decision making, enable local tax-rising. Each community can deal with
its own thieves, but none can touch a thief from the other community!
P.3 Para. 3 Also to be noted, we have decided to I failed to understand this sentence. Is it some form of preemptive
prepare this “Made in Lebanon” program apology or excuse for not being the “idiot of the global village”
to minimize the hardship on our anymore? It is not clear.
population, and we will have to show the
highest levels of national unity around it What is clear though is that the “free trade agreements” signed with
if we want to succeed in convincing our EU and Arabs at a time when we were destroying our local output was
bilateral and multilateral counterparts a complete disaster. But do we need to say “sorry” for that? And what
not to impose harsher measures against does this have to do with the IFIs?
critical external funding
P.4 Para. 1 “…the assumptions that (1) Lebanon will Needs some explaining. Usually when one thinks that throwing money
benefit promptly from the required at a problem will solve it, he ends up requesting more money.
external financial support to serve as a
backstop to the recession”
P.4 Para. 2 “Following a preliminary projection of Why 2% and 3% and not 5% or 6%? It seems the growth numbers are
real output contractions of -12.0% in set without any real scientific backing. Countries with flawed
2020 and -7.0% in 2021, the economy will governance structures have had negative growth rates for decades.
then gradually recover and reach 2.0% They are the “endlessly” “emerging” countries. Tring to emerge for
real growth by 2024 before stabilizing at decades and never actually making it. The assumptions that Lebanon
an estimated 3% growth potential in the will “naturally” take a growth path is totally flawed and dogmatic.
longer run.” Remember that Lebanon was a DEVELOPED country for most of the XIX
and XX centuries by all standards. It is now a “poor country.” It actually
destroyed wealth, i.e., had negative GDPs. And this has nothing to do
with the war. Therefore, assuming that GDP will grow by 3% because
we put it on an Excel sheet is pure lunacy.
P.4 Para 2 “The recovery will be driven by external More debt is a bad idea. IMF debt to reboot consumption is super bad
support to limit the contraction in idea.
imports and domestic consumption, a
public investment push in the context of CEDRE is about infrastructure. This is no longer a priority before
the unlocking of the CEDRE committed decentralization. Except for national projects, the Central government
financing and the implementation of a must be discharged on this for the benefit of local/regional authorities.
well prioritized investment plan…..” Akkar best knows what are Akkar’s waste management needs and
how/where to implement it. Not Beirut. Spending on infrastructure
top-down is a recipe for another disaster.
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iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
P.4 Para. 4 “Overall government deficit is projected We need to see the model behind this, but on the face of it, it is grossly
to narrow from 11.3% of GDP in 2019 to overambitious. Deficit $2.5bn (7.2% of GDP in 2020) seems unrealistic.
7.2% in 2020 and further to 1.3% by Given government has around $13bn of uncompressible fixed costs.
2024,….” This deficit number means government will be collecting $10bn to
$11bn in 2020. Not realistic. I think deficit to GDP is more likely to be
15% in 2020!
P.4 Para. 5 “While exports of financial and other Flawed analysis. This results from a total lack of understanding of the
business services are expected to be real nature of Lebanese financial sector potential. The banks (and the
severely affected by developments in the previous government) have opted to collect deposits “on balance
banking sector, political stability and sheet,” killing the entire “advisory” banking services “a la Suisse.” In a
improvement in infrastructure could totally restructured banking sector, banks could still attract 3 or 4 times
boost tourism receipts beyond 2020” GDP but not “on balance sheet” as did in the past but rather in
“advisory,” i.e., in Fiduciary. Which means total income from exported
financial services can literally sky-rocket in the future.
D/GDP 2020 91.9% which means the government expects Debt 2020
to be at $31.3bn. Even assuming no IMF debt and No CEDRE debt, we
fail to see how the government will be able to slash c.$60bn of its debt.
Especially in light of subsequent statements in this document whereby
the Eurobond will be rescheduled (i.e., remain as a debt), the Multi-
lateral debt will be repaid (preferred creditors status upheld) and only
“domestic debt” might have some capital discount!
P. 6 Para. 2 “…it is difficult to imagine Lebanon Nowhere is this dogmatic statement explained scientifically.
coming out of such a deep crisis without
the support of the international
community at large.”
P.7 Para. 1 “….gradual return to international To do what? Raise new debt! Overly optimistic and sub-optimal. Better
capital markets in 3 years’ time” to have decentralized entities shape up to raise debt via local
issuances.
P.7 Para. 2 “External support in the form of a Dogmatic statement. Confidence is a by-product of a) an efficient
program supported by international bottom-up governance system and b) strong banks’ balance sheets. It
multilateral institutions is expected in has nothing to do with “external support” signals.
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Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
P.7 Para. 3 “Investors and observers are reminding Suddenly the government is naïve enough to take advice from the very
the government that….. investors that threaten to sue it.
The donor and lender community is How can your creditor give you an advice that is in your best interest,
unanimously telling us that a multilateral NOT in his? It is naïve to think this is the case.
intervention in Lebanon would catalyze
additional external financial support……”
P.7 Para 3 “Investors will be far more willing to Totally erroneous statement. Naïve thinking.
accept a facial reduction of their debt if
they see credible recovery value in what
they are left with.”
P.8 Para. 1 “This is mainly due to the unwillingness Why is the government so linking two matters which are not related –
of the international community to – i.e., a) the need to reform with b) the IFI/IMF involvement?
commit the extensive support needed, Suspicious.
while at the same time the very large
accumulated losses in the Lebanese
financial system would not be
restructured and while no international
framework would be put in place to
monitor reform implementation over the
medium term (foreign donors are well
aware that previous experiences have
shown a lack of capacity from Lebanese
governments to conduct reforms as
planned in the context of international
support packages).”
P.8 Para. 2 “Total contractual debt payments to Language indicating that the Eurobonds will be rescheduled, not
Eurobond holders were projected at c. written off ––i.e., the debt stock with respect to these would not
US$19-20 billion over the next five years change! This puts an even bigger question mark on the 2020 Debt-to-
before the default. Regardless of the GDP ratio!
nominal discount, the negotiation of a 5-
year grace period on principal and the
reduction of coupon to a minimum level
during that same period would fill an
additional US$15-18 billion of the
projected US$25 billion to US$30 billion
BoP financing requirements.”
P.9 Para. 1 “The fiscal component of the reform Total absence of reform vision. The indicated measures are more a
package should aim at reaching a wish list of “to dos” which are difficult to implement in the reality of a
primary budget surplus of between 3% multi-cultural environment managed in a top-down, centralized
and 4% by 2024, without taking into system. Consent to tax is an act of faith in government and this is
consideration the impact of externally lacking more than ever before.
financed capital expenditure achieved
through CEDRE.”
P.9 Para. 1 “This requires, in addition to reducing the All of these measures are mere wishful thinking. They will crash on the
electricity transfers, wall of the real power holders in the Lebanese context, which are
communities and political parties representative thereof.
rationalizing the wage bill and
Only a decentralized model could enable a gradual achievement of
cutting all inefficient current spending, such goals. Nowhere in this document do we find any reference to
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Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
P. 14 Para 2. “A principal discount on the domestic The only reference to write off of government debt is found in this
(ii) debt will be required to restore the paragraph. It only concerns “domestic debt” which is not elsewhere
overall stock of public debt to a defined in the document. (Is it LBP denominated debt? Is it LBP and
sustainable level” USD held by local agents?).
All these conflict with the Debt-to-GDP ratio target for 2020 given by
the government which, to be achieved, requires a write-off in the
amount of c. $60bn.
P.16 Para.2 “No government would take the Demagogic ethical posture. Why is it not ethical to burden future
responsibility to ask future generations generation but it would be to do so for the current ones when both
to cover such heavy losses from the past. generations are not responsible for the debt and the theft!
P.16 Para. 3 “The government has elaborated a multi- A Cut an Arm strategy would solve the government debt and the
pronged strategy aiming at fully banking system balance sheet almost instantly. We don’t see the
restoring financial sector stability over reason to mention phased restructuring and “medium term” except if
the medium term. The program focuses the government was keeping the door open for a “lost decade”
on (i) a phased restructuring of the banks’ strategy and ultimately a settlement with bank owners at the expense
balance sheets,….” of depositors.
P.17 Para. 1 “Based on the conclusions of the review, BdL has two different issues: a) a credit issue resulting from its
and depending on the remaining BdL net impaired assets and its credit losses from its exposure to government,
capital position, the government will and b) an FX mismatch. Detailed in schematic on page 10.
evaluate options for the restructuring of
BdL’s liabilities, including a contribution The BdL losses culminate at $65bn as detailed on page 10. These net
from banks’ deposits” down to c. $55bn to $58bn. These cannot be passed through to Banks
and have to be paid over time by special taxes on state assets.
P. 19 and P19 Charts Would like to see $ contribution to losses and legal channel by which
such losses are conveyed from one “box” to the other. This would go a
long way to explaining the situation
P. 20 Para. 3 “The government will establish a special This is really not convincing. We all know this. Especially that no
fund to compensate depositors’ losses mention is made of any legal step taken by government to initiate
that result from the restructuring” proceedings to claim stolen moneys.
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Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
P. 20 Square “Another option would be, instead of an This is utter nonsense, and I am being polite.
outright loss on deposits, the transfer of
private sector deposits targeted for bail- It is a backdoor left open from which Houlihan/ABL will enter to strike
in to a dedicated deposit recovery fund. “ a deal with the government on the back of depositors.
P.25 Para. 2 Laws to be enacted Not up to the required sweeping reform that is needed and that is
triggered by this financial collapse.
P.25 Para. 3 “With regard to combating corruption, First, it would have been to file a lawsuit, open an investigation, and
the government will take credible and request a forensic audit and appoint an international audit firm (Kroll
visible immediate measures to fight or similar). The government did not do that. So why should these
corrupt practices, recoup stolen assets statements would be taken seriously?
and strengthen the anti-corruption legal
infrastructure.” For the future, optimal governance is only achieved via changing the
governance model from top-down centralized to bottom-up
decentralized. The government has not mentioned its willingness to go
in this direction.
For the past, the government seems unable to go after stolen money.
For the future, the government seems unwilling to propose a federal
model for Lebanon. In both instances the promise of reform and
performance lack credibility.
P.26 Para. 1 “First, we will clean the government body How the government intends to achieve this ambitious target remains
from individuals who have been engaged unclear. The government’s plan goes only as far as declaring good
in embezzlement of public funds or other intentions. No actionable plan of reform is put forward. Not even
forms of corruption. This will reduce our policy principles that would set a course of action.
over-sized and inefficient public sector,
while promoting honest hard-working No mention of localism, no mention of reform of the state to achieve
public employees. This in its turn should bottom-up decision-making, no mention of decentralization, no
increase productivity and facilitate any mention of subsidiarity, no mention of empowering local
reforms that will be set in motion at a constituencies, no mention of decentralized fiscal structure.
later stage. Second, it sends a strong
message that there is accountability KEY PRINCIPLE: MEDIOCRE STAFF + GOOD SYSTEM OUTPERFORM
which will act as a deterrent for any BRILLIANT STAFF + POOR SYSTEM. Don’t go after changing civil
potential corruption in the future and servants. Change the system.
increase the credibility of the current
administration. Third and most
importantly, the government will be seen
as working towards the same goals of
fairness, transparency, and equality,
which matter to the people. And finally,
it will contribute in quickly funding the
deposit recovery mechanism mentioned
here above. Overall, this approach is a
win-win situation, leading to a positive
economic outcome but also satisfying the
primary-and very legitimate-demands of
the population.”
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Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
P.26 Para. 4 “The Ministry of Finance has prepared This must be joke as well. Any serious lawyer in Lebanon would tell you
the modernization of the land the land registry is probably the only complete legislation in Lebanon.
administration system” And It was designed as an improved model over the very well codified
French system. DON’T TOUCH IT!
P.26 Para. 6 “Digital transformation of the It will be resisted and will ultimately fail. This cannot be achieved under
Government” a centralized government in a multi-cultural society. I take bets. $100.
P.27 Para. 1 “The judiciary system’s governance will It will be resisted and will ultimately fail. This cannot be achieved under
be modernized, in particular through a centralized government in a multi-cultural society. I take bets. $100.
amending the law to ensure that judges
are elected by judges to key positions, Can a leader of a community which is corrupt be tried! We all know it
and that a firewall is installed between is impossible. Stop trying to fit a circle in a square. We are smart
judges and political and administrative enough to know we should not imitate/ape (singer) the system
positions. The required texts will be prevailing in monoculture homogeneous secular societies. We need to
amended to allow any high-level design our own system based on our own reality of a multi-cultural
politician involved in the misuse of public society.
funds to be prosecuted and indicted by
the relevant control bodies and courts. It is time we go beyond social justice warrior wet dreams and
Only political accusations will be judged acknowledge that singing Kumbaya around the fire is not enough to
by the parliamentarian court for build a nation.
presidents and ministers. The draft law is
currently at Parliament.”
P.27 Para. 3 “Electricity” For this, see the much more efficient model proposed by LFRE.
Even fuel for electricity production can be severely cut under the LFRE
plan for Energy Sector going massively solar. Instead, the government
is sticking to an outdated, costly, and inefficient gas-based energy mix.
(For more on this, see www.lfre.com )
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Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
This scenario assumes the numbers are as they were on Nov 2019. The numbers might differ slightly, but the approach remains valid. It revolves
around swift and brutal recognitions, an affectation of the losses, and an immediate recapitalization.
1. Government defaults on $50bn (with target to get D/GDP close to 1) of its debt in both hard currencies and local currency.
a. Of which $25bn held by local banks
i. $15bn of $15bn of Eurobonds held by commercial banks
ii. $10bn of $21bn in LBP
b. Of which $25bn held by BdL
i. $3bn of $3bn of Eurobonds held by BdL
ii. $22bn of $35bn in LBP
2. BdL is likely to redeem the $60bn hard currencies debt to commercial banks in LBP at the official rate or at a “market” rate. BdL has $40bn of
imbedded losses and is hit by a $25bn credit loss from government default. BdL losses position resulting therefrom is c. $61.3bn negative (its
equity minus its imbedded losses and its credit losses). ($3.7bn - $40bn - $25bn). BdL has solved its FX mismatch.
3. Commercial Banks are also expected to be hit by a $10bn NPL losses on their private loan portfolio. Furthermore, Commercial Banks have
inherited FX mismatch from BDL of $60bn.
4. Commercial banks are in de facto liquidation with losses of c.35bn ($25bn + $10bn) and an undetermined FX mismatch loss. Credit losses are
allocated as follows
a. Current shareholders $20bn
b. Depositors $15bn
Depositors are also expected to inject an additional $10bn to $15bn to recapitalize banks.
Under the above scenario, the FX mismatch is massive and would migrate from BDL to Commercial Banks and therefrom to depositors. Of all the
government’s asset pool, only oil & gas proceeds/royalties could deliver something of the needed magnitude to rebalance the $60bn mismatch.
Royalty interests in the Oil & Gas business seem the best way to make the whole scheme honor depositors’ FX position.
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Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
--In Bleu the exposure --In Red the loss transferred Numbers are indicative and must be refreshed/updated
Private Sector
The “Government” plan is a paper theory. In reality, the government is de facto implementing a totally different path to recovery called “Lost decade”
(also called “Kick the can”). Both “Cut an Arm strategy” and “Lost decade” have been abundantly discussed over Twitter and numerous papers have
been published. The reality remains that unlike what is being publicized, the government is effectively following a Kick the Can strategy.
The main deviations from the Government plan (noting that the Government announced something and is effectively doing the opposite) and the de
facto approach are: a) the swiftness of the treatment, b) the magnitude (since the government numbers don’t add up so far), and c) the loss allocation.
Cut an Arm recommends primarily a default in hard currencies and subsequently in local currencies. Printing LBP is reserved to paying down BdL
$60bn liabilities to Commercial Banks.
The above strategy solves both the credit risk and the currency mismatch in the system and enables an immediate “re-opening” of the banking
activity with cleansed banks free from mismatches and free from credit risk. The credit can flow again. Trust is back.
51
iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
Lebanon is a consensual confessional democracy with an open (but opaquely monopolistic) capitalistic economic regime currently facing economic
challenges in a “degraded” macro-fiscal environment. The Lebanese system is in dire need for reform. These reforms have been delayed for decades.
Herein is an attempt to use the concepts detailed in the Prospect Theory to try to explain why the Lebanese political elite is constantly delaying
structural reforms. This framework could also help us understand how a) the fundamentally diverging interests between the economic elite and the
general public/taxpayers and b) the substantial conflict of interest between the political elite and general public/taxpayers have far reaching
consequences on the country’s development (or in this case outright regression).
Prospect Theory
Prospect Theory describes the way people choose between alternatives that involve uncertainty and/or risk. The theory states that people make
decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains. To illustrate and frame our approach let us consider the two situations: First a winning
dilemma and Second a loss dilemma. In first case, an economic agent has to choose between a) winning $950 for sure (i.e. 100% probability of winning
$950 and 0% probability of winning $0, this is referred to as Certainty Effect) versus b) 95% chance of winning $1,000 (and hence 5% chance of
winning $0. Referred to as Possibility Effect)! Mathematically both options have the same expected outcome. In reality, economic agents usually
choose Certainty Effect i.e. to take the sure win ($950) over the Possibility Effect -is the riskier option- which is to go after the potential higher win
(possibility to win $1,000). In a profit making environment, choosing option a) Certainty Effect over option b) Possibility Effect reflects the risk-averse
behavior of economic agents. Now consider the losing bet or a bet in a loss making environment. The economic agent has to choose between a)
losing $950 for sure (i.e. 100% probability of losing $950 and 0% probability of losing $0, Certainty Effect) versus b) 95% chance of losing $1,000 and
5% losing $0 (Possibility Effect). In a loss facing situation economic agent usually choose second option i.e. Possibility Effect taking the risk to lose
more just to avoid the certainty of the loss. In a loss making environment, the economic agent goes for the riskier bet. He becomes risk-seeking and
is no longer risk-averse.
Prospect Theory, and its universe of patterns of risk attitudes, one can conclude that the political elite (as an economical elite) will be driven into a
risk-seeking prospect to try and save their interests at the expense of the best interest of the general public. The political elite is naturally driven
towards taking the riskier bet (at the expense of the general public) just in order to avoid crystallizing its losses. While the general public would
naturally want to take on the safest bet which is to reform and take a limited hit for a brighter future.
Comfortably numb
The current environment/dilemma is about decisions to minimize losses, we are in the “loss” leg of the Prospect Theory, with the political elite
making decisions in uncertain environment. Conceptually, the “equity owners” (economic elite) would be the biggest losers of any “reforms” decision.
This statement must be considered in conjunction with the following two important caveats a) due to its collusion with the political elite, the economic
elite managed over the past 40 years, to accumulate abnormal wealth mainly via the establishment of business silos and de facto monopolies across
virtually all the industry sectors. Such wealth is presumably outside of the country and would not be theoretically captured by the “reform” decision;
and b) the governing elite enjoys disruptive powers to distort the economics rules and the judicial system to fraudulently reallocate the foreseeable
losses to be borne by the various economic actors, minimizing losses on the ruling elite and overburdening the general public. These two features
further alter the risk profile of the governing elite to exacerbate its risk-seeking attitude. Having no real skin in the game makes the political elite
becomes virtually careless of the losses. With their savings out of reach of the reforms-induced losses and being able to re-allocate any losses to its
advantage, the governing elite becomes disconcerted with additional risk in the system. Ballooning sovereign debt, stagnating growth, soaring
unemployment are of marginal impact on the governing elite. Further Delaying reforms comes at the expense of further degradation of the economy
and promises even more painful adjustments for the general public. The conflicted nature of the political elite and the fact that it is at the same time
the economic elite makes it totally inapt to decide in the best interest of its constituencies. The general public, has a totally different risk profile. The
general public is inherently driven towards the safer bet (reforms today -albeit painful- and a more sound economy going forward). The best interest
of the general public is to see “reforms” (referred to as “collapse” which the political elite -controlling the narrative and the semantics- so as to instill
fear). General public favors a painful but limited loss (say 20 or 30% of assets and income from a devaluation and cut on deposits) for a healthier
economy and medium term growth and a better environment for future generations.
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iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
1. Each community will pick 2 negotiators (we have 4 cultural blocks: Sunni, Chiaa, Druse and Christians. So a total of 8 persons)
2. They will meet around a document (like this one for instance) over several weeks/months. They will discuss the details of the document.
3. Once they reach an agreement, the final document will be set out for referendum within each community ie 4 referendums.
4. What would happen if one or more of the four Groups rejects such proposed new constitution, is unclear.
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iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
As indicated above, The Cantonal Electoral College, tasked with electing members of parliament, is comprised of all the men and women belonging
to the relevant Group irrespective of their residency. Voters vote based on their “hometown” of birth. The system retained herein is single-seat, two-
round “uninominal” i.e. an electoral system that elects one Member of Parliament from each district (as redefined herein see maps attached). The
voting system is designed to elect a single winner where a second round of voting is used if no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round
(“scrutin uninominal majoritaire à deux tours”). For avoidance of doubt, all voters have to belong to one same Group (with possible accommodation
within the Christian Group for positive discrimination to ensure representation of sub-Group sensibilities like Armenians, Orthodox, etc….).
Four parliaments will be elected. They convene separately but jointly in the Federal Parliament.
[Maps to be added]
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iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5
Constitution of the Federal Republic of Lebanon-– Iyad Boustany
I tried to the fullest extent to identify and correct errors in the data. No due diligence work was done on the data source nor on the data itself. Errors
remain they have not been located nor identified and hence have been conveyed into –and polluted- the analysis. I don’t believe these to be material
or to have a material impact on outcome.
I shave color-coded each canton for ease of identification: Blue for Christian, Green for Sunni, Red for Chiaa and Yellow for Druse. I have retained the
Grey for municipalities which I could not assign to a cantons. Some municipalities have been correctly identified and colored “grey” i.e. unassigned
to a canton
Demographic changes (mainly deriving from war, displacement, forced exile, and to a lesser extent natural population birth rates and dynamics) were
not reflected in the original sample database. This results in municipalities showing a different ethno-cultural image than what reality would indicate.
As such, some municipalities were assigned to canton to which they cannot ultimately belong. Effective population is from a total different
community. Such a municipality needs to be in the “grey”.
Out of the c. 1450, town and city, 1237 have been so far analyzed, with 1,167 assigned as follows: 614 blue (Christian), 269 red (Chiaa), 196 to green
(Sunni) and 88 yellow (Druse). The balance (i.e. 70) are left grey meaning no ability to assign to a Canton because of the absence of a clear majority.
Assignment criteria were the following: Any municipality with more than [67%] of it registered population belonging to one of the four Groups get
allocated to the Canton of the Group. Alternatively, any municipality with more than [51%] of it registered population belonging to one of the four
Groups and its second largest Group represents less than [30%] get allocated to the Canton of the Group. In all other instances, the municipality is
given a Grey color. It will be handle by the administrative body in charge of settling Canton borders.
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iyad.boustany@fedleb.org www.fedleb.org Federal Constitution– En – V5