Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS &

POPULATION PROJECTION (DAPPS)
Training Manual
Rizwana Siddique
Director, PBS, Islamabad

June 2019
 Background Notes
Demography: Scientific study of human population including size, distribution composition
(age, sex, religion, cast, language) over time and place
Population projections:

i) Annual Growth Rate

ii) Cohort component Method
Requirement of Cohort Component Method: Base Year population
Birth, Death & Migration

Aspects of Demography:
Age

A sp e cts o f d e m o g ra p h y
Sex
Static Aspects
Relegion

race

Fertility

Mortality

Dynamic Aspects Nationalaity

Migration

Growth

Type of Data
Types of
data

Primary Secondary
Data Data

Census Surveys Reports Tetbooks

Requirement for DAPPS:

Data
Sources

Vital
Census Sample
Registratio
Data Surveys
n
iPums: To get data of any survey, register yourself at this website

Vital Registration
Purpose:
- Primarily administration
- To collect data on the vital events happening in a population (generally
concerned with live, births, death, marriages and divorces).

Methodologies of Census:
De-jure: Legally residency for a period of 6 months
For stable area
De-facto: 1. only for homeless population
2.For migrated (season population)
Essential Characteristics: Census evaluation is mainlyon 3 key elements

 Universality
 Simultaneity Within short duration (UN recommend 40 days).
 Individual Enumeration
 Confidentiality

Rate verses Ratio: Differentiated by their dominator

MMR:(Maternal Mortality Ratio)
Mid-year Population: Globally, it starts from 1st July, 26

Fertility Measures:
CBR
Age specific fertility (ASFR): (B/F X 1000) for each larger group
Total fertility Rate:sum of ASFR/1000 x 5
General fertility rate:
Gross Reproduction Rate GRR:
Net Reproductive Rate:
Children Error Born:

GRR= TFR (Female birth 15-49/Birth)

Important for future learning including risk of death

 TFR = 2.1 = M+F whereas .1 is risk of death
 NRR = 1
 A Female (mother) is replaced by one female baby.

DAPPS/ RUP output Requirement

Requires three component
 Base Population
 Fertility
 Mortality
Rural Urban Projection:
DAPPS/ RUP Out put
- Output population is for midyear
- Output measures of fertility, mortality, migration are for calendar year
 - Available output
- Single year, five years and irregular age group for population migration and
deaths.
- Single year and five year age pacific fertility rate
- Abridged and unabridged life table
Abridged: By 5 year age groups unabridged:by single age groups.

Generally age specific Fertility Rate is available at

national level. For District /provincial level, you can
develop age specific fertility rate, the help of this
software Develop folders itself late fertility mortality &
migration.

Create a new portfolio

DAPPS 3: 00 (shall work on 3.2)
1. Create portfolio

Sep 1: File new portfolio

Sep 2 Choose a Location
Sep 3 Enter a name this will become a subdirectory under location
Sep 4 Click on the Create button;

2. Open portfolio
3. Import from RUP 2nd main step add new date PAPPS#

2nd Main Step:

- IA: Add new date DAPPS

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- File → Add new data
 - Or, Input → Right click → Add New
- Select
 Data type
 Data format
 Agegrouping
 Max age
 Start year
 End year (default is start year
 Interval (year between input view)
 Source
- Click “Ok” to create blank data input shell.
- You cannot proceed unless all items have been entered

Note: In the software, ending age group is

for 80+or 85+. However, for Pakistan, we
used to compile groups by 75+ so we need
to adjust it accordingly, as advised.

Example for 2nd step:

Data type: Population

Date format: Population

How to work in software

1. Go to website census.gov
 2. Download & install DAPPS 3.2.
How to develop Date Input file
3. Create new portfolio.

Location: D/PBS Projection

Name: Pakistan 2019 create

Then
Population Mortality Fertility & Migration tabs will be highlighted

Population
Select Population

Right click population

i) Select data type: Population Select data form: Population
ii) Select Enter Region : Pakistan
iii) Describe data Source: Census 2017
iv) Describe No. of year to create: start year end year Interval
2017 2017 1

We will use this

As this is the requirement of Life Table
Describe the age structure
- Single year age group
- 4 and 5 years age groups
- 5 years age groups
Minimum age maximum age: 75
Mortality
We need life expectancy at birth
We use life expectancy at birth for multiple, to set trends for projection
Pakistan Lifetables: male
Pakistan Life table: female

1. Right click → Create new

2. Selected data type → Mortality
3. Selected data format→

4. Select or Enter
5. Region name

If this is available through any survey use that as it is based upon absolute marks, otherwise
we ought to generate it for which we need life expectancy (ex)→ for which we will use Mort
PAK

Described this data source:

Described the number of year if create Described the age structure

Start year create end year internal Age group Minimum age

Data file (name)

1. Single year age → copy
2. Open DAPPS 3.2
3. Create New portfolio
For location: Desktop & new folder
4. Give name: Pakistan
5. Create New Data (Fill-in dialogue Box)
6. Selected age group 0 &1-4

Table from Excel file

i) copy Below Zero & paste in DAPP Table
ii) Then sum (1-40 box for male & female
Then copy in DAPP
iii) Similar a copy Values for other age group & paste in DAPP
 Mort Pak

Application

MATCH

Sex = Males

Model life table = Coale – Demarking south → Mostly

characteristics are similar to ours

Mort Pak
1. Process of creating life table

2. Copy life table in new Excel sheet named “Life table” as we need it for 1 st as here in
Mortpak, it will be up-to 100
3. For 75+ = mx = lx/Tx

In DAPP(S)
- Mortality
 - Add new data
- Fill in Dialogue box
Copy from life table age-ex
Paste first from 1-70 then past only 75+
Repeat some process for females

Fertility (Input file)

TFR all available sources
ASFR All available source

New again in Fertility

Add ASFR for 1997
1984
2017 PDHs
1998 Census

Migration
We don’t have data available for this, so we are not entering it because we need data of at
least 3 components out for 4 for projection.

In DAPPS, there are three taps:

1. Input,
2. Analysis&
3. Projection.
After having input to, we will do analysis & projection
Males are conventionally shown
on the rate and spindles on the
Analyses
right They may be measured by
raw number or percentage of
*. Open
the population also called “age-
File Pakistan (already created:
sex pyramid”
Population pyramid
Population pop pyramid each sex

How to do it in Excel
From CBR – GFR (Excel file for training, in new sheet
i) Copy age group
ii) Copy of male population
iii) Copy female population
iv) For male fraction= male population in each age group / total male
population
v) For female population = Female population in each group/Total female
population
vi) Multiply above Answer to -1 to shift to other side of grid
vii) Develop population chart

format chart for developing population pyramid

DAPPS Projections
Projection
create
Name

Three assumption or scenario

- High variant
- Medium variant
- Low variant

If we go on constant has that if TFR remained the same in 2050 as it is today?

Name: Palestine - constant

Title: Pakistan -6/18/2019

Area Label: Total Right side

Female year of projection: 2050
Sex Ratio at Birth:1.05
Select Default life table region South (4) – more suitable for Pakistan

Now start
Adding file
From:
Population, mortality, fertility, & migration

Add variable from each of four above to male projection

Upon completing all data file ----- Run
If it gives some error, repeat the process by checking / verification of data or lay predicting it
other adding removing variable.
Study & analyses the output

Currently or TFR + 3.6 (2017)

However, we intend that we may archive TFR (2050) = 2.1 (2050) media variant

Again, this possibility, we = 1.6 (2050) low variant

Again in Input
Add new
Add TFR+ 2.1 for medium variant
Add TFR+ 2.6 for High variant
Add TFR+ 1.6 for low variant

Again for projection

High variant
1. Give name= Pakistan high
2. Sex ration at birth= 1.051
3. Default table region South 4
4. Recap file
Click or check on the boxes
 Name:Pk high
 Perview:

For Population
Add population by age group
1. Mortality
Add life table for male & female (only one)

2. Fertility
Add ASFR 2017 (as base year population
 Add TFR=206 (high)

Migration
W will turn from red to green. Click to continue

Repeat for medium variant& low variant. In this way, we get four scenarios constant, high,
medium & low.

Now go to analysis

+∑
Add
↓
Projection
Proj-compare
Click on the project you want to compare
We will get comparison in the form of Tables and Graphs
Note: in the beginning, all constant, high, low & Medium variant), will be same as the policy
impact will became evident, after some time
How to make Presentation
Right click→ export to excel
Same with name, copy & past in power point

What is missing in the projections, that have been done so far?

We have not check the quality of data

i) Not checked for mid-year population
ii) Not checked for age – heaping
iii) Trending analysis/

Checking for age heaping

1. Whipple & index:
is applied to population of age range 23-62

2. Mayer’s index:
is a measure of terminal digit preferences. It provide Myers method is applied
to the populationin the 20-79

Select
1. Take single year age group, from input (inputfile) prepared earliar
2. Go to analysis
3. Add
4. Population (age heaping) least
5. Continue
6. Click table & graphic (from left side)

Age Heaping

10
 Age Heaping

11

How to do age smoothing

I) Go to analysis
II) Add
III) Population
Pop age smooth 5
Selectpopulation of age group (not sample age)
IV) Select Transformation
Carrier for age → apply
V) Take 1st file
VI) Right click = copy to input
Population Ages Smoothing

12

To check pop pyramid after smoothing

Analysis
+∑
(add) Population pyramid
Select population (after smoothing)
Continue
Population pyramid

Male Surrounding Age Ratio

15
How to change to Mid year Population
i) Analysis
ii) +∑Add
iii) Population Pop age more
Dialogue box →Transformation popage move

Change initial date as 3/18/2017

Described date = 7/1/2017

Life table containing M(x) data

Select male & female table

Then smooth it & analysis Pop smooth age

Copy to input
Table smooth & file for projection

Mortality
For IMF, Graph was straight line as we have taken only IMF data of only 2017 for life table.
Now, we have to take trend for IMR

Analysis +∑ Add Mortality to check /find the trends E Proj.

With this trend, what would be life expectancy in 2017.

+∑ Add Mortality to check /find the trends E Proj

Continue:

i) Analysis
ii) +∑ Add
iii) Transformation
iv) Dialogue box ( you can check / uncheck any sources here)
v) Fitted (continuous box through all points and give trends)
vi) Fixed → jumping → desecrate
vii) Select life expectancy at birth (fitted ) and right click copy to input
viii) Load Pak. Constant file from projection instead of create
ix) Rename file
x) go to population
xi) remove raw population and add smoothed population
xii) Go to mortality
xiii) Add
xiv) life expectancy at birth (fitted) (it should started from 2017 as we have life
table for 2017 instead of 1950).
xv) Select name of RUP file.
xvi) Run
xvii) Continue
Projection

Compare census

1980- 2020 MortalityEOproj.

Pakistan 1998 proj Do Not Smooth data not 2017 not 1998
Sex ration = 1080 projected year prepared 2020

Mortality

Life table 1998 male

Life table 198 female
Trend to proj. by excluding trend

Fertility ASFR 1998

TFR 2017

Analysis

Projection Proj. compare→ 2017 data that is no smooth exponential

TFR Projection Logistic - 2017

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Census Proj Comparison

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Census Proj Comparison

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