Monetary Policy Management
Monetary Policy Management
Report on
Policy debate
Author
A policy is typically described as a purposeful plan of action to guide decisions and achieve sensible (rational)
outcomes. In this report I will take a brief overview of monetary and fiscal policies, views of Keynes and
Monetarists on policy and different other economist’s debate on this that whether policy should be active or
passive and if active then would it be conducted by rule & law or by giving discretionary powers.
I will mainly study the debate of Keynes and Monetarists about policies and secondly I will study the
arguments in favor of active & passive policy and try to conclude at the end of this report if policy should be
active then by which way we implement it and if passive then what are the reasons behind this.
Table of contents
What is policy? 3
What is stabilization policy? 3
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Keynes VS Monetarists 4
Keynes view point
Monetarist view point
Role of fiscal and monetary policy in Keynes view 5
Keynes real sector & monetary sector
Weakness in monetary policy
Role of fiscal and monetary policy in Monetarists view 10
Monetarist real sector & monetary sector
Weakness in fiscal policy
The macro economic policy debate 13
Whether a policy be active or passive? 13
Keynes and Monetarists views about policy 13
Lags in the implementation and effects of policies 14
Time lags
Inside lags
Outside lags
The difficult job of economic forecasting
Ignorance expectations and Lucas critique
Should policies be conducted by rule or by discretion? 17
Distrust of policy makers & Political process 18
Discretionary policy time inconsistency 18
Rules for monetary & fiscal policies 19
Arguments in the favor of Rules and discretionary policy 20
Conclusion 20
Bibliography 22
1 What is policy?
A policy is typically described as a purposeful plan of action to guide decisions and achieve sensible (rational)
outcome(s).
A macroeconomic strategy implemented by governments and central banks to keep economic growth, price
levels and unemployment stable.
Mainly there are two policies that are use to manage the economy those are:
1. Monetary policy
2. Fiscal policy
Now we will discuss briefly explain both of these policies with there objectives and tools then we will go into
this debate whether policy should be active or passive.
In any country is called monetary policy. This policy is controlled and implemented by the central bank of
that country like in case of Pakistan monetary policy controlled and manage by state bank of Pakistan
The management of expansation and contraction of the MS for the purpose of attaining one or more
objectives; such as for full employment and control inflation
The sale and purchase of government approved securities in the open market by the state bank is called the
open market operation.
It is the minimum cash reserve ratio that the commercial bank has to keep with the State bank
4 Fiscal policy
The policy that is concerned with the revenue and expenditure of the Government, fiscal policy is
implemented by the Government of the country it deals with the taxation and borrowing of money.
1. Mobilization of resources
2. Accelerate the economic growth like directing the resources to the right channels
3. To increase the employment opportunities through fiscal incentives and in the form of tax rebates
and concessions.
4. To bring price stability, by fiscal tools
5. Protect the economy from inflation and damaging competition from foreign countries the
developmental planning projects
6. The changing of tax rates and changing government spending. The main point of fiscal policy is to
keep the surplus/deficit swings in the economy to a minimum by reducing inflation and recession.
1. Taxes
2. Government spending
5 Keynes’s VS Monetarist
In the macro economic policy debate Keynes views are different from monetarist Keynes was born into a
comfortable English social class that considered itself born to rule he was a Capitalist.
According to Keynes economy basically and inherently unstable in other words in economy ups and downs
comes in aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and until and unless policy makers don’t use both Fiscal
and monetary policy to stabilize the economy these fluctuations will produced the unwanted results in
aggregate output, unemployment, and inflation. In other words macro economic policies will move against
the wind mean when there is depression in economy and when the economy is heated up there is need of
policies to lift up and cool down the economy.
In short according to Keynes to stabilize the economy at the equilibrium position there is always need of
policies and fiscal policy is better to do this.
5.2 View point of Monetarists:
According to monetarist the economy is basically stable. They are of the view that there is no need for any
economic policy because economic policies are the causes of fluctuation in the economy.
Therefore according to the monetarists for fine tuning of the economy nothing is require rather the policy
makers must keep in view the limitations of economic policies before implementing them.
In short comparison of Keynes and monetarists
The Keynesian
- Monetarist
TABLE 1
Keynesians Monetarists
Now we will see that how Keynes proved that F.P is better than M.P to control the economy
1. According Keynesian investment spending is less sensitive to rate of interest which means investment
curve/ function is steep or less elastic in nature
Investment = f (i)
3. They also said prices and quantity demand also less sensitive to each other hence AD curve is also less
elastic of steep in nature.
1. Interest rate and (M/p)d (real demand for money) are more sensitive to each other so (M/P)d curve is
more elastic or flat in nature
2. Interest rate & national income are also more sensitive to each other so liquidity of money (LM) curve
is more elastic and flat in nature.
Money market
Y↑ → (M/P)d↑ i↑ LM curve
(M/P)d = (M/P)s
To get out of the depression we have to adopt both policies (monetary policy , fiscal policy) and then
check how much % fiscal policy help and how much % monetary policy helps .so according to Keynesian
fiscal policy helps more.”
6.3 Real sector graphs:
1. Investment function
Steep and less elastic relation Fig 1
I = f (i)
-ve relationship
I
2. IS curve
Steep and less elastic relation
i Fig 2
Y = f (i)
-ve relationship
IS
3. AD curve
Steep and less elastic relation
P Fig 3
Qd = f (P)
-ve relationship
AD
Qd
6.4 Monetary sector graphs
(M/P)d = f (i)
(M/P)d
LM curve
i Fig 5
i= f (Y)
Y
7 Proof of Keynes that Fiscal policy is better than monetary policy
According to Keynes school of thought fiscal policy is more effective to bring the economy out of depression
situation as compared to monetary policy.
LM
LM1
IS- LM Model
E2
i2
i* E
i1 E1
IS1
IS
Y* Y1 Y2
AS
AD-AS Model
e1 e3
e
P*
AS AD2
AD1
AD
Y* Y1 Y2 Yf
Due to easy Monetary policy both LM and AD curves shift right side
Due to easy fiscal Policy both IS and AD curve Shift to right side
MP is less effective because it is associated with some weaknesses which are giving below
1. Reverse causation
2. MP in depression
3. Velocity of circulation of money
4. Monetary lags
5.
7.1 Weakness of monetary policy
7.1.1 Reverse causation:
Above we outlined that easy monetary policy may result in increased level of national income but Keynesian
think that such causation has also a reverse causation. It is experienced as:
We know that Mtd = f(Y) accordingly when ever due to easy monetary policy level of income increases the
transitive demand for money increases. This will have the effect of increasing the rate of interest. The
increase rate of interest may offset the expansionary effects of easy monetary policy. In such situation if
supply of money is increased to check rising rate of interest it may result in inflation. On the other side
whenever due to tight monetary policy level of income decreases, the transitive demand for money will
decreases. This will have the effect of decreasing the rate of interest. The decreased rate of interest may
offset the effects of tight monetary policy. In such situation if supply of money is increased to check the
falling rate of interest, it may result in deflation. All this shows that both the targets of rate of interest and
supply of money cannot be attained at the same time.
1. According to Monetarists Investment Spending is more sensitive to rate of interest which means
investment curve is flats and more elastic in nature.
2. Interest rate and National Income are more sensitive to each other.
1. Investment function
Flat curve Fig 7
I = f (i)
2. IS curve
i Fig 8
Y = f (i)
IS
Y
3. AD curve
P Fig 9
Y= f (P)
AD
(M/P)d = f (i)
(M/P)d
5. LM curve
i Fig 11
i= f (Y)
Y
8.3 Proof of monetarists that monetary policy is better than fiscal policy
IS- LM Model
i LM LM1
E1
E
i*
E2 IS1
IS
Y* Y
P AS
AD-AS Model
e3
e e2
AD2
AS
AD AD1
Y* Y1 Y2 Yf Y
According to the Monetarists to free an economy from depression situation monetary policy plays and
effective role as compared to fiscal policy. F.P can’t play as much an effective role as monetary policy plays
Because F.P has some weakness like fiscal lags,
9 The Macro economic policy debate
In order to answer the following questions there has been made some argumentation that whether the
policies should play an active or passive role.
&
If the policy makers decide to operate some economic policy then should they use the discretionary power
or depend upon some rules.
Whether it is us or Pakistan the economist is their economic affair departments are found busy in
considering the state of economy i.e. whether the inflation rate is falling or rising whether the income &
employment is rising or falling.
In their consideration some economists are in favour that government should adopt easy fiscal policy or
tight fiscal policy according to the situation otherwise we will have to face depression like 1930.
But few are favour of that we should not activate any kind of fiscal policy they are in favour of monetary
policy.
To considering all these things the Keynesian are in favour of depending upon active fiscal and monetary
policies for economic stabilization.
Monetarists do not like depend upon fiscal and monetary policies for the economic stabilization. Or
they depend upon passive type of economic policy as following problems are attached with these policies:
10 Problems in implementation of policies
There are some problems in the implementations of fiscal and monetary policies actively,
Economic stabilization will become be easier if the effects of some economic policy are readily discerned.
When we adopt some policy it needs some time to be implementing so that time duration is called
“LAG IN IMPLEMENTATION”
Policy makers would simply adjust their instruments to keep the economy on the desired path. Making
economic policy is just like to drive a car .A car changes direction almost immediately after the steering
wheel is turned .and just like that the policy makers arrange their instruments to keep the economy on the
desired track.
But the implementation of policy is just like to sail a ship .a ship changes course long after the pilot adjusts
the rudder and once the ship starts to turn it continues turning long after the rudder set back to normal. Like
a ships pilot economic policy makers face the problems of long lags which is even more difficult because the
length of lags are hard to predict.
1. Inside lag
2. Outside lag
Inside lag
“The inside lag is the time between a shock to the economy and the policy action responding to that
shock”
This lag arise because of
First the policy makers take time to recognize that a shock has occurred
Then put the appropriate policies in to effect
Outside lag:
“Outside lag is the time between a policy action and its influence on the economy”
Because the policy influences the economy only after a long lag. Therefore the successful stabilization policy
requires predicting accurate future economic conditions.
If we can not predict whether the economy will be in boom or recession in coming six months or a
year we cannot evaluate whether monetary or fiscal policy should now be trying to stabilize the
economy.
Unfortunately economic developments are often unpredictable.
They are some measures used to predict the economic condition.
a) One is known as leading indicators.
b) Second one is known as Macro Econometric Models.
These computer models made up of many equations, adopted by the Govt agencies and by public or private
firms for making predictions and policy analysis.
Types Of expectations
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Adaptive expectations:
According this approach it is assumed that
“The people form their expectations of variable based on recently observed values of the variable.”
Rational expectations
According to this approach it is assume that
“People optimally use all available information including the information about current and prospective
policies to forecast the future “
Locus critique:
According to Prof LOCUS, on the basis of traditional method when we analyze any policy we do not keep in
view the effect of policy on expectations. Therefore, the criticism which is made on the analysis of traditional
policy called “LOCUS CRIRIQE”
EXAMPLE:
An important example of “LOCUS CRITIQUE” arises in the analysis of “Disinflation”. The cost of reducing
inflation is often measured by the “Sacrifice Ratio”
By rule:
A policy will be implemented under rule if policy makers in anticipation announce, what will be the reaction
of this policy in different situations, and then they follow this “rule & law.”
A policy which has been adopted under some rule approach may be active as well as passive.
As an example
A passive policy rule might specify steady growth in the money supply of 3% per year.
While an active policy rule might specify that MS should by increased by following method;
By discretion:
“The steps which are necessary to adopt to meet any economic issue, when implemented are called discretion”
“A policy will be discretionary when the policy makers implement the policy according to situation of
occurrence & decision separately for each case”
Discretionary powers
Discretionary powers are those who have the authority to implement the policies.
Some experts think that if we trust over our politicians, that the discretionary policy look better that
the fixed policy of “rule and law”.
This is because the discretionary policy is flexible on the ground of its structure and politicians will
use them following the changing circumstances.
But due to time inconsistency which is attached with any of the policy. The policy experts consider
rule approach better than the discretionary approach.
It has been observed that policy makers announce some of their policy so that economic agents could
devise their expectations.
In coming days it is not necessary that the policy makers will fulfill their promise regarding
their preannounce policy.
Therefore the situation of distrust is created in such situation of distrust is created, in such situation the rule
method will be better that discretionary approach.
MS must increase at a constant rate every year. Because it is MS which creates fluctuations in the economy.
Therefore to stabilize the economy MS must increase at steady rate.
But according to few
In order to stabilize the economy, along with increment in ms at constant rate it is necessary to keep
constant he velocity of circulation of money, otherwise unnecessary flucations will like to occur.
AD P Inflation
So,
Then,
AD L Y Unemployment
P results Deflation.
So,
c) If
So,
Inflation Targeting:
If
Actual Inflation > Targeted Inflation
Then,
MS should be
If,
Actual Inflation < Targeted Inflation
Rules for fiscal policy
Although most discussion of policy rules center on monetary policy, economists and politicians also
frequently purpose rules for fiscal policy.
The rule that has received the most attention is the balanced budget rule (BBR)
Under the balanced budget rule the government would not be allowed to spend more that its receives
in tax revenue.
Most economists oppose a strict rule requiring the government to balance its budget.
There are three reasons to believe that a budget deficit or surplus is some times appropriate or better than
BBR.
During recession
Taxes Transfers BD
If government made balanced budget, the role of fiscal stabilizers like taxes and transfer payments will
come to an end. If strict BB is pursued the depression will increases when expenditure are reduced
because of fall in revenues.
A budget deficit or surplus can be used to reduce the distortion of incentives caused by the tax system.
Tax smoothing
Higher the rate of taxes more will be social cost of imposing tax.
“To keep the social cost of the taxes lower it is necessary that they should remain stable, rather heavy
fluctuations. This policy is called the policy of tax smoothing.”
The tax rates can be smooth if when incomes are low during depression, government should make deficit
budgets.
A budget deficit can be used to shift a tax burden from current to future generation.
Examples:
Some economists argue that if the current generation fights to maintain its freedom, future generation benefit
as well as bear some of the burden. To pass on some of the war’s cost, the current generation can finance the
war with a “budget deficit”
The government can later retire the debt by levying taxes on the next generation.
These considerations lead most economists to reject a strict balanced budget rule.
Firstly:
Both the monetary and fiscal policies affect the economy with a certain time lag. Any mistake in calculation
of the length of the time lag aggregate the intensity of phase of business cycle.
Secondly:
Rules lead to economic stability and keep the private economic decisions makers both accurately forecast the
future.
Thirdly:
Rules as opposed to discretion will save the economy from the atrocities of politicians.
Fourthly:
Variations in the rate of monetary growth strongly dominate variations in the rate of nominal economic
growth not in the real economic growth.
Fifthly:
Errors and uncertainties associated with discretionary monetary policy are so numerous and vast that the
discretion would always lead to economic instability.
Lastly:
Discretionary policies can affect the economy only if it comes all of a sudden. Such as policy will be fool the
private economic decision makers and as a result scarce economic resources will be misallocated.
The proponents of discretionary policy move the following arguments in favour of discretion
Firstly
The velocity of MS may charge in some unforeseeable way during recession or a boom and the constant
money growth rule may aggravate the intensity of the phases of business cycle.
Thus it is preferable that the central bank be given the discretion to adjust the MS to large and small changes
in the velocity.
Secondly:
The time lag required for monetary and fiscal policy effect the economy can be incorporated into
discretionary policy by accurately forecasting the future course of economic activity.
Thirdly:
Defenders of discretionary monetary policy argue that MS can readily be manipulated to counteract cyclical
effects. They firmly state that the presence of errors and uncertainties can prevent the discretionary monetary
policy from being perfectly counter cyclical but not from being mostly counter cyclical.
Fourthly:
The assumptions of wage price flexibility held by the rational expectations theorists in opposition to
discretionary monetary policy may not held in real world. Thus monetary policy will have real effects even if
it does not come as surprise.
15 Conclusion:
From the above debate, we have analyzed whether a policy should be active or passive, while the economists
are facing Fluctuation. In this way, should a policy be arranged according to certain rules and regulations or
the politicians should be given discretionary authority in this matter. We have also seen that countless
(boundless) arguments are present in the support and in opposition as well, of each policy. So we reach to the
conclusion that none of the policies has complete legitimacy. In addition to economic arguments, political
arguments are also present in the support of each policy and in opposition as well. So, after the whole analysis
government can take some decisions weather the economic policy should be active or passive. It should be
discretionary or it should be set according to some rules and laws. Whatever the results would be, positive or
negative, the economists have to play an important role in policy making. Finally we come at this point that in
countries like Pakistan where no political stabilization and every Government is involved in corruption here
fiscal policy cant work better to control the economy because politicians use their powers always in –ve way
so monetary policy should be adopted in Pakistan but if people of Pakistan elect some honest and loyal
government then by using tax and expenditure system the economy of the Pakistan can not only be stable but
also growth can be seen.