Sample: Further Statistics 1
Sample: Further Statistics 1
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Further Statistics 1
FS1
Edexcel AS and A level Further Mathematics
Sample material
Discrete random
variables
Objectives
1
Aer completing this chapter you should be able to:
● Find the expected value of a discrete random variable X → pages 2–5
T
AF
DR
Prior knowledge check
1 The random variable X ∼ B(12, _16 ). Find:
a P(X = 2)
b P(X < 2) Statistics and Mechanics
c P(8 < X < 11) ← Year 1, Section 6.3
1
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
1.1 Expected value of a discrete random variable a p + q + 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.2 = 1 Problem-solving
p + q = 1 − 0.6 Remember that the probabilities must add up
Recall that a random variable is a variable whose Links p + q = 0.4 (1) to 1. You will oen have to use ∑P(X = x) = 1
The probabilities of any discrete random
value depends on a random event. The random (1 × 0.1) + 2p + (3 × 0.3) + 4q + (5 × 0.2) = 3 when solving problems involving discrete
variable add up to 1. For a discrete random
variable is discrete if it can only take certain variable, X, you write ∑P(X = x) = 1. 2p + 4q = 3 − (0.1 + 0.9 + 1) random variables.
numerical values. ← Statistics and Mechanics Year 1, Chapter 6 2p + 4q = 1 (2)
E(X ) = ∑xP(X = x)
If you take a set of observations from a discrete random b 2p + 4q = 1
Watch out The expected value is a
variable, you can find the mean of those observations. 2p + 2q = 0.8 From (2).
theoretical quantity, and gives information
As the number of observations increases, this value will so 2q = 0.2
about the probability distribution of a
get closer and closer to the expected value of the q= 0.1 Multiply (1) by 2.
random variable.
discrete random variable. p= 0.4 − q
= 0.4 − 0.1 Subtract bottom line from top line.
■ The expected value of the discrete Notation The expected value is sometimes = 0.3
random variable X is denoted E(X ) referred to as the mean,
mean, and is sometimes
and defined as E(X ) = ∑xP(X = x) denoted by µ µ..
T
If X is a discrete random variable, then X 2 is also a discrete random variable. You can use this rule to
determine the expected value of X 2.
Links Any function of a random variable is
Example 1 ■ E(X 2) = ∑x2P(X = x)
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also a random variable. → Section 1.3
A fair six-sided dice is rolled. The number on the uppermost face is modelled by the random
variable X.
a Write down the probability distribution of X.
X.
Example 3
b Use the probability distribution of X to calculate E(X
E(X ).
A discrete random variable X has a probability distribution.
DR
DR
a x 1 2 3 4 5 6 Since the dice is fair, each side is equally likely x 1 2 3 4
__1 __1 __1 __1 __1 __1 __
12 __
6 __
4 __
3
P(x = x) 6 6 6 6 6 6 to end facing up, so the probability of any face P(X = x) 15 25 25 25
ending up as the uppermost is _6
1
b The expected value of X is: a Write down the probability distribution for X 2.
_ _ _
6
E(X) = ∑ xP(X = x)) = 61 + 26 + … + 6 b Find E(X 2).
Substitute values from the probability
= __
21 _
7
6 = 2 = 3.5 X can take values 1, 2, 3, 4, so X 2 can take
distribution into the formula then simplify. a The distribution for X 2 is
values 12, 22, 32, 42.
If you know the probability distribution of X then you can calculate the expected value. Notice that in x 1 2 3 4
Example 1 the expected value is 3.5, but P(X = 3.5) = 0. The expected value of a random variable does x2 1 4 9 16
Note that because X takes only positive
not have to be a value that the random variable can actually take. Instead this tells us that in the long 12
___ 6
___ 4
___ 3
___
P(X 2 = x2) 25 25 25 25 values, P(X 2 = x 2) = P(X = x).
run, we would expect the average of several rolls to get close to 3.5.
b E(X 2) = ∑x2P(X = x2)
Watch out E(X 2) is, in general, not equal to
12 6 4 3
Example 2 = 1 × ___ + 4 × ___ + 9 × ___ + 16 × ___ In this example E(X ) = 1.92 and
(E(X ))2.
25 25 25 25
120 1.922 ≠ 4.8.
The random variable X has a probability distribution x 1 2 3 4 5 = ____
25
as shown in the table. p(x) 0.1 p 0.3 q 0.2 = 4.8
a Given that E(X ) = 3, write down two equations
involving p and q.
b Find the value of p and the value of q.
2 3
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
T
By modelling the amount paid out in prize money as a
3 The random variable X has a probability function Hint The expected profit from the
discrete random variable, determine the maximum value
game is the cost of playing the game
1 of P in order for Jorge to make a profit on his game.
P(X = x) = __
AF
AF
x x = 2, 3, 6 minus the expected value of the
amount paid out in prize money.
a Construct tables giving the probability distributions of X and X 2.
b Work out E(X ) and E(X 2).
c State whether or not (E(X ))2 = E(
E(X
X 2). Challenge
Three fair six-sided dice are rolled. The discrete random variable X is
4 The random variable X has a probability function given by defined as the largest value of the three values shown. Find E(X
E( ).
DR
DR
P(X = x) = { −−44
2 −x x = 1, 2, 3, 4
2 x=5
a Construct a table giving the probability distribution of X.
b Calculate E(X ) and E(X
E(X 2). 1.2 Variance of a discrete random variable
c State whether or not (E(X
(E(X ))2 = E(
E(X 2). If you take a set of observations from a discrete random variable, you can find the variance of those
observations. As the number of observations increases, this value will get closer and closer to the
E/P 5 The random variable X has the following probability distribution. variance of the discrete random variable.
x 1 2 3 4 5 ■ The variance of X is usually written as Var(X ) and is defined as
P(X = x) 0.1 a b 0.2 0.1 Var(X ) = E((X − E(X ))2)
Given that E(X) = 2.9 find the value of a and the value of b. (5 marks) ■ Sometimes it is easier to calculate the variance using Notation The variance is
the formula Var(X) = E(X2) − (E(X ))2 sometimes denoted by σ 2, where
E/P 6 The random variable X has the following probability σ is the standard deviation.
Hint You can use the given The random variable (X − E(X ))2 is the squared deviation
distribution.
information to write down from the expected value of X. It is large when X takes values
x −2 −1 1 2 simultaneous equations for a, b and c that are very different to E(X ).
P(X = x) 0.1 a b c which can be solved using the matrix
From the definition you can see that Var(X ) > 0 for any random variable X. The larger Var(X ) the
inverse operation on your calculator.
Given that E(X ) = 0.3 and E(X 2) = 1.9, find a, b and c. ← Core Pure Book 1, Section 6.6
more variable X is. In other words, the more likely it is to take values very different to its expected
(7 marks) value.
4 5
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
3 Given that Y is the score when a single unbiased six-sided dice is rolled, find E(Y ) and Var(Y ).
Example 4
A fair six-sided dice is rolled. The number on the uppermost face is modelled by the random P 4 Two fair cubical dice are rolled and S is the sum of their scores. Find:
variable X. a the distribution of S b E(S )
Calculate the variance using both formulae and check that you get the same answer. c Var(S ) d the standard deviation.
We have that E(X ) = 3.5 This was calculated in the first example 5 Two fair tetrahedral (four-sided) dice are rolled and D is the difference between their scores.
The distributions of X, X 2 and (X − E(X))2 are given by of the previous section. Find:
a the distribution of D and show that P(D = 3) = _8
1
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
x2 1 4 9 16 26 36 b E(D)
(x − E(X ))2 6.25 2.25 0.25 0.25 2.25 6.25 c Var(D).
__1 __1 __1 __1 __1 __1
P(X = x) 6 6 6 6 6 6
So the variance is E 6 A fair coin is tossed repeatedly until a head appears or three tosses have been made. The random
Var(X ) = ∑(x − E(X )) 2 P(X = x) variable T represents the number of tosses of the coin.
a Show that the distribution of T is
T
Substitute values into the formula for
= 6.25 × __
2 __
2 __
2
6 + 2.25 × 6 + 0.25 × 6 variance.
t 1 2 3
= (6.25 + 2.25 + 0.25) × __
1 ___
35
3 = 12 _1 _1 _1
P(T = t) 2 4 4 (3 marks)
AF
AF
The expected value of X2 is
__ __
91 b Find the expected value and variance of T.
T. (6 marks)
E(X 2) = ∑x 2 P(X = x) = 61 (1 + 4 + … + 36) = 6
So using the alternative formula
E 7 The random variable X has probability distribution given by
Var(X ) = E(X 2) − (E(X )) 2 = __
91 ___
49 ___
35
6 − 4 = 12
x 1 2 3
P(X = x) a b a
DR
DR
Exercise 1B where a and b are constants.
a Write down E(X ). (2 marks)
1 The random variable X has a probability distribution given by
b Given that Var(X
Var(X ) = 0.75, find the values of a and b. (5 marks)
x −1 0 1 2 3
_1 _1 _1 _1 _1
P(X = x) 5 5 5 5 5
6 7
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
Example 5 Example 7
A discrete random variable X has a probability distribution Two fair 10p coins are tossed. The random variable X represents the total value of the coins that
land heads up.
x 1 2 3 4
__
12 __
6 __
4 __
3 a Find E(X ) and Var(X ).
P(X = x) 25 25 25 25
The random variables S and T are defined as follows:
a Write down the probability distribution for Y where Y = 2X + 1.
S = X − 10 and T = _2 X − 5
1
b Find E(Y ).
b Show that E(S ) = E(T ).
c Compute E(X ) and verify that E(Y ) = 2E(X ) + 1.
c Find Var(S ) and Var (T ).
a The distribution for Y is When x = 1, y = 2 × 1 + 1 = 3 Susan and Thomas play a game using two 10p coins. The coins are tossed and Susan records her
x = 2, y = 2 × 2 + 1 = 5 score using the random variable S and Thomas uses the random variable T
T.. After a large number
x 1 2 3 4
etc.
y 3 5 7 9 of tosses they compare their scores.
P(Y = y)
12
___ 6
___ 4
___ 3
___ d Comment on any likely differences or similarities.
25 25 25 25
T
Notice how the probabilities relating to X a The distribution of X is
b E(Y ) = ∑yP(Y = y) are still being used, for example,
P(X = 3) = P(Y = 7). x 0 10 20
12 6 4 3
= 3 × ___ + 5 × ___ + 7 × ___ + 9 × ___
AF
AF
25 25 25 25 1
__ 1
__ 1
__ The distribution of X is symmetric
P(X = x) 4 2 4
121 around 10. More precisely, X has the same
= ____
25 E(X ) = 10 by symmetry. distribution as 10 − (X − 10) = 20 − X.
= 4.84 Var (X ) = E(X 2) − (E(X ))2 E(X) = E(20 − X ) = 20 − E(X ),
Therefore E(
12
___ 6 1 + 102 × __ 1 − 102 = 50
1 + 202 × __ E(X ) = 10.
so E(
c E(X ) = ∑xP(X = x) = 1 × + 2 × ___ Var(X ) = 02 × __
25 25 4 2 4
4 3 48 Use the formulae for the expected value
+ 3 × ___ + 4 × ___ = ___ = 1.92 b E(S) = E(X − 10) = E(X ) − 10 = 10 − 10 = 0
DR
DR
25 25 25 of a sum.
2 × 1.92 + 1 = 4.84
If you know or are given E(X ) you can use the
formula to find E(Y ) quickly.
( 1 X − 5 = __
E(T ) = E __
2
1 E(
2 ) 1 × 10 − 5 = 0
X ) − 5 = __
E(X
2
8 9
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
6 In a board game, players roll a fair six-sided dice each time they make it around the board.
The distribution of sin X is
__ The score on the dice is modelled as a discrete random variable X.
1
__ √3
___
sin x 0 1 a Write down E(X ).
2 2
P(X = x) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 They are paid £200 plus £100 times the score on the dice. The amount paid to each player is
1
__ modelled as a discrete random variable Y.
E(sin X) = ∑sin x P(X = x) = 0 × 0.4 + × 0.2 Using the general formula for E(g(X )).
2 b Write Y in terms of X.
__
√3
___
+
2
× 0.1 + 1 × 0.3 c Find the expected pay out each time a player makes it around the board.
__
8 + √3
= _______ ≈ 0.487
20 P 7 John runs a pizza parlour that sells pizza in three sizes: small (20 cm diameter), medium (30 cm
diameter) and large (40 cm diameter). Each pizza base is 1 cm thick. John has worked out that
3 9 5
on average, customers order a small, medium or large pizza with probabilities ___, ___ and ___
10 20 20
Exercise 1C respectively. Calculate the expected amount of pizza dough needed per customer.
1 The random variable X has distribution given by
T
E/P 8 Two tetrahedral dice are rolled. The random variable X represents the result of subtracting the
x 1 2 3 4
smaller score from the larger.
P(X = x) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4
a Find E(X ) and Var(X ). (7 marks)
a Write down the probability distribution for Y where Y = 22X
X − 3.
AF
AF
X+1
44X
The random variables Y and Z are defined as Y = 2X and Z = ______.
b Find E(Y ). 2
c Calculate E(X ) and verify that E(2X
E(2X − 3) = 2E(X ) − 3.
2E(X b Show that E(Y ) = E(Z ). (3 marks)
c Find Var(Z ). (2 marks)
2 The random variable X has distribution given by
Challenge Hint Remember that for two random
x −2 −1 0 1 2
DR
DR
Show that E((X − E(X ))2) = E(
E(XX 2) − (E(
(E(XX ))2. variables X and Y we have
P(X = x) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 E(X + Y ) = E(X ) + E(Y )
a Write down the probability distribution for Y where Y = X 3.
b Calculate E(Y ).
10 11
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
( ) (
1 1 1 a 0.45
( 1 1 4) c 0.6 )
X = 50Y + 150 Rearrange to get an expression for X in terms of Y. −1 1 2 b = 0.1
E(X ) = E(50Y + 150)
By inverting the matrix on a calculator (or
= 50E(Y ) + 150 So, by inverting the matrix we find
by hand) we find values for a, b and c.
= 255 + 150
(c ) 6 (
a 2 −3 1 0.45 0.2
2 )( 0.6 ) (0.05)
Use your expression for X in terms of Y. 1
__
= 405 b = 6 3 −3 0.1 = 0.2
Remember that the ‘+150’ does not affect the −2 0
b Var(X ) = Var(50Y + 150)
variance, and that you have to multiply Var(Y ) by So a = 0.2, b = 0.2 and c = 0.05.
= 502Var(Y )
502 to get Var(X ).
= 502 × 2.5 Use the expression for Y to write everything
c P(X > Y) = P(X > 3X − 1) = P(1 − 2X > 0)
= 6250 in terms of X only.
So P(X > Y ) = 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.25 = 0.75.
1 − 2X > 0 when X = −2, −1, 0. So
P(X > Y ) = P(X=−
P(X −2)
2) + P(
P(X = −1) + P(X = 0).
Example 10
Exercise 1D
T
The discrete random variable X has probability distribution given by
x −2 −1 0 1 2 1 X is a discrete random variable. The random variable Y is defined by Y = 44X
X − 6. Given that
P(X = x) 0.3 a 0.25 b c E(Y ) = 2 and Var(Y ) = 32, find:
AF
AF
The discrete random variable Y is defined as Y = 33X
X − 1. a E(X )
Given that E(Y ) = −2.5 and Var(Y ) = 13.95, find b Var(X )
a E(X ) and E(X 2) c the standard deviation.
b the values of a, b and c
4 − 3X
c P(X > Y ). 2 X is a discrete random variable. The random variable Y is defined by Y = ______
2
DR
DR
Given that E(Y ) = −1 Var(Y ) = 9, find:
1 and Var(Y
Y+1 Rearrange the formula Y = 3X − 1 to
a We have X = _____ a E(X )
3 get it in terms of X.
b Var(X )
E(X) = E (_____
3 ) 3
Y + 1 = __
1 (E( Y ) + 1) = −
(E(Y −0.5
0.5
Adding a constant does not change c E(X 2)
variance, so Var(Y + 1) = Var(Y ).
Var(X) = Var (_____
3 ) 9
Y + 1 = __
1 Var( Y ) = 1.55
Var(Y
P 3 The discrete random variable X has probability distribution given by
Var(aX + b) = a2 Var(X ).
So E(X 2) = Var(X ) + (E(X ))2 = 1.55 + 0.25 = 1.8.
x 1 2 3 4
b We have P(X = x) 0.3 a b 0.2
a + b + c = 1 − 0.3 − 0.25 = 0.45 The probabilities must sum to 1.
The random variable Y is defined by Y = 2X + 3. Given that E(Y ) = 8, find the values of a and b.
E(X ) = −2 × 0.3 − 1 × a + 0 × 0.25 + 1 × b + 2 × c
= −0.5 We know that E(X ) = −0.5 from part a.
So E/P 4 The discrete random variable X has probability distribution given by
−a + b + 2c = −0.5 + 0.6 = 0.1
x 90° 180° 270°
E(X2) = 4 × 0.3 + 1 × a + 0 × 0.25 + 1 × b + 4 × c
P(X = x) a b 0.3
= 1.8
So The random variable Y is defined as Y = sin X °.
a + b + 4c = 1.8 − 1.2 = 0.6 a Find the range of possible values of E(Y ). (5 marks)
We know that E(X 2) = 1.8 from part a.
b Given that E(Y ) = 0.2, write down the values of a and b. (2 marks)
12 13
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
P 5 The discrete random variable X has probability distribution given by 3 A discrete random variable X has the probability distribution shown in the table below.
x −2 −1 0 1 2 x 0 1 2
P(X = x) a b c b a _1 _1
P(X = x) 5 b 5 +b
The random variable Y is defined Y = (X + 1)2. Given that E(Y ) = 2.4 and P(Y > 2) = 0.4, a Find the value of b. b Show that E(X ) = 1.3.
a show that: c Find the exact value of Var(X ). d Find the exact value of P(X < 1.5).
2a + 2b + c = 1
10a + 4b + c = 2.4 4 The discrete random variable X has a probability function
a + b = 0.4
k(1 − x) x = 0, 1
{0
b Hence find the values of a, b, and c.
P(X = x) = k(x − 1) x = 2, 3
c Find P(2X + 3 < Y ). otherwise
E/P 6 The discrete random variable X has probability distribution is given by where k is a constant.
a Show that k = _4
1
a x = 1, 2, 3 b Find E(X ) and show that E(X
E(X 2) = 5.5.
{c
P(X = x) = b x = 4, 5 c Find Var(2X − 2).
T
x=6
5 A discrete random variable X has the probability distribution
E(X ) = −
Suppose that Y is defined by Y = 1 − 2X.. Given that E(X −5.6 P(Y < −5) = 0.6,
5.6 and P(Y
a write down the value of E(X ) (1 mark) x 0 1 2 3
AF
AF
_1 _1 _1 _1
b show that: P(X = x) 4 2 8 8
3a + 2b + c = 1 Find:
2a + 3b + 2c = 1.1
a P(1 , X < 2) b E(
E(X
X) c E(3X
E(3X − 1)
a + 2b + c = 0.6 (4 marks)
d Var(X ) e E(log(X
E(log(X + 1))
c Solve the system to find values for aa,, bb,, cc.. (2 marks)
d Find P(X > 5 + Y ). (2 marks)
DR
DR
6 A discrete random variable X has the probability distribution
x 1 2 3 4
P(X = x) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3
Mixed exercise 1
Find:
1 The random variable X has probability function a P(3 < X 2 < 10) b E(X
E( ) c Var(X )
d E(_____ )
x 3−X __
P(X = x) = ___ x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 2
e E(√ X ) f E(2−x)
21
a Construct a table giving the probability distribution of X.
7 A discrete random variable is such that each of its values is assumed to be equally likely.
Find:
a Write the name of the distribution. b Give an example of such a distribution.
b P(2 , X < 5) c E(X ) d Var(X )
A discrete random variable X as defined above can take values 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4.
e Var(3 − 2X ) f E(X 3)
Find:
2 The discrete random variable X has the probability distribution in the table below. c E(X ) d Var(X ) e the standard deviation.
x −2 −1 0 1 2 3
P 8 The random variable X has a probability distribution.
P(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 t 0.1 0.1
Find: x 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) 0.1 p q 0.3 0.1
a r b P(−1 < X , 2) c E(2X + 3) d Var(2X + 3)
14 15
Chapter 1 Discrete random variables
a Given that E(X ) = 3.1, write down two equations involving p and q. Find: 14 A fair spinner is made from the disc in the diagram and the 0°
b the value of p and the value of q random variable X represents the number it lands on after
c Var(X ) being spun.
1
d Var(2X − 3). a Write down the distribution of X. b Work out E(X ). 3
90°
c Find Var(X ). d Find E(2X + 1).
E 9 The random variable X has probability function e Find Var(3X − 1). 2
⎧ kx x = 1, 2 225°
P(X = x) = ⎨
⎩ k(x − 2) x = 3, 4, 5
15 The discrete variable X has the probability distribution
where k is a constant.
x −1 0 1 2
a Find the value of k. (2 marks)
P(X = x) 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
b Find the exact value of E(X ). (2 marks))
Find:
c Show that, to three significant figures, Var(X ) = 2.02. (2 marks)
c E(_3 X + 1) d Var(_3 X + 1)
1 1
a E(X ) b Var(X )
d Find, to one decimal place, Var(3 − 2X ). (2 marks)
T
E 10 The random variable X has the discrete uniform distribution E/P 16 The discrete random variable X has probability distribution given by
P(X = x) = _6
1 x −1 0 1 2
x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
P(X = x) 0.1 0.3 a b
AF
AF
X ) = __
35
a Write down E(X ) and show that Var(X 12 . (4 marks)
b Find E(2X − 1). (2 marks) The random variable Y is defined Y = 1 − 33X
3X.
X.. Given that E(
X Y ) = 1.1,
E(Y
c Find Var(3 − 2X ). (2 marks) a find the values of a and b. (5 marks)
d Find E(2x). (3 marks) b Calculate E(X 2) and Var(X ) using the values of a and b that you found in part a. (3 marks)
c Write down the value of Var(Y
Var(Y ). ( mark)
(1
11 The random variable X has probability function d Find P(Y + 2 > X ). (2 marks)
DR
DR
3x − 1
p(x) = ______ x = 1, 2, 3, 4.
26 E/P 17 The discrete random variable X has probability distribution given by
a Construct a table giving the probability distribution of X. x −2 0 2 3 4
Find: P(X = x) a b a b c
b P(2 , X < 4)
2 − 3X
c the exact value of E(X ). The random variable Y is defined as Y = ______
5
d Show that Var(X ) = 0.92 to two significant figures. You are given that E(Y ) = −0.98 and P(Y > −1) = 0.4
e Find Var(1 − 3X ). a Write down three simultaneous equations in a, b and c. (4 marks)
b Solve this system to find the values of a, b and c. (3 marks)
12 The random variable Y has mean 2 and variance 9. c Find P(−2X > 10Y ). (2 marks)
Find:
Challenge Hint You can make use of the
a E(3Y + 1) b E(2 − 3Y ) c Var(3Y + 1)
Let n be a positive integer and suppose that X is a discrete following results:
d Var(2 − 3Y ) e E(Y 2) f E((Y − 1)(Y + 1)).
1 for i = 1, …, n.
random variable with P(X = i ) = __
n n(n + 1)
n ∑i = _______
i=1 2
13 The random variable T has a mean of 20 and a standard deviation of 5.
(n + 1)(n − 1)
n + 1 and Var(X ) = ___________ n n(n + 1)(2n + 1)
It is required to scale T by using the transformation S = 3T + 4. Show that E(X ) = _____ ∑i 2 = _____________
2 12 i=1 6
Find E(S) and Var(S).
← Core Pure Book 1, Chapter 3
16 17
Chapter 1
6 If X is a random variable and a and b are constants, then E(aX + bb)) = aaE(
E(aX X ) + b.
E(X
X)
aE(X
T
7 If X and Y are random variables, then E(X + Y ) = E(
E(XX ) + E(
E(Y
Y ))..
8 If X is a random variable and a and b are constants then Var(aX + bb)) = a2 Var(X ).
Var(aX
AF
DR
18
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