BDO Professional Judgment Framework (Conceptual Guide)
BDO Professional Judgment Framework (Conceptual Guide)
AT BDO
Contents Preface
CHAPTER 1
Overview of Professional Judgment
The consistent exercise of high-quality professional judgment Phillip Austin, National Assurance Managing
is the goal of the BDO Professional Judgment Framework—it Partner of Auditing at BDO, puts it this way:
is at the center of the Framework, the culmination of bringing
the baseline attributes to bear, ensuring the application of the
necessary iterative actions, and following the vital steps of
“All of that comes down to
the judgment process. It is not only essential to a professional one singular concept about who we are.
services firm with high aspirations and ideals, but professional The DNA makeup of an auditor is to
judgment itself is in a broader sense a means to an end—
it enables us to achieve a higher purpose. This is where the demonstrate professional skepticism—
BDO Professional Judgment Framework ties in to BDO’s an unbiased approach that evaluates the
mission of providing trusted solutions in an ever-changing
facts, that seeks the truth that will stand
world. It is also where it ties into our core purpose of helping
people thrive every day and into BDO’s core values. Our in the face of adversity and will bring the
efforts must be oriented toward these higher-level principles right answer through the right solutions to
for which we as individual professionals and together as
a firm strive to achieve. In all that we do in our pursuit of
every moment that we face.”
consistent and effective application of professional judgment,
we must be oriented toward our highest principles and While other attributes, actions, and steps are needed to
ideals as professionals and as a responsible, forward-looking consistently meet the level of professional judgment we strive
professional services firm with the highest of aspirations. to achieve, an appropriate mindset is vital to our success as
professionals and as a firm. 1
But what is professional judgment? In the broadest sense,
professional judgment can be described as the capacity to
logically assess situations or circumstances and to draw 2
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cells, and basic blood enzymes, and, finally, tests for markers Knowing the elements of a good judgment process, having
of a damaged heart muscle and for how well the blood is a robust understanding of a coherent, logical, and complete
clotting. Stat, of course, means “instantly” or “now.”) The judgment framework, and possessing the vocabulary to
point here is that a shared conceptual understanding and a articulate it well will help you document your judgments in
common vocabulary can be powerful tools in enhancing the a concise and comprehensive manner. In fact, the structure
effectiveness and efficiency of communication in specialized of a good judgment framework can provide a robust way
environments. Everyone in the room knows what is needed to organize and articulate your documentation of the more
without lengthy explanations while the patient’s health difficult audit judgments you face.
deteriorates. In an audit setting, you might hear a manager say
to a senior, “Watch for the decision trigger here, and be careful We expect our professionals to apply good judgment in every
not to get anchored to management’s initial estimate.” As you aspect of their work, including in the appropriate application
will see later in this guide, this sentence conveys a wealth of of this Framework. All judgments are not created equal—
information between people who share an understanding of they will not all require the same degree of investment
the concepts and vocabulary around the “decision triggers” in applying the BDO Professional Judgment Framework.
and the potential bias of “anchoring and insufficient adjustment.” Complex judgments clearly call for careful investment in the
application of all elements of a good judgment process and
A common conceptual framework and a shared vocabulary can the BDO Framework can facilitate this investment. However,
also enhance on-the-job development of less experienced team even relatively simple judgment situations can benefit from
members. It is well known that experts often have difficulty quick reflection on the elements of the Framework to help
sharing what they have learned through a wealth of experience ensure that nothing essential is being overlooked. In Chapter
and the “school of hard knocks.” Relatively inexperienced 6, we discuss how the application of the Framework will
people, for their part, often find it challenging to absorb the appropriately differ across judgments of varying complexity
deep knowledge that experts try to share. Part of the difficulty and importance.
is the absence of a shared conceptual understanding and a
common vocabulary that experts can reference in sharing and In sum, the overarching BDO Professional Judgment
transferring their expertise to others. For those in supervisory Framework will embed a set of behaviors to help engagement
roles, consider the importance of the judgment abilities of teams address issues in a fluid, timely, collaborative and
your team in your own ability to perform your role well within repeatable pattern. It will drive behaviors within teams and
an expected timeframe. A big part of the motivation behind across the firm toward consistent, desired outcomes that are
the BDO Professional Judgment Framework is that training supported with reasoned, evaluative judgment. It is our aim
around such a framework can be instrumental in accelerating to provide our professionals with a resource to assist them
the development of professional judgment skills in our less in making, communicating about, and documenting the
experienced professionals. Any effort undertaken to understand whole range of judgments they make, and in enhancing and
and use the BDO Professional Judgment Framework will be accelerating the development of our people.
worth your personal investment, regardless of your level of 1
experience or expertise as an audit professional.
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With this background, let’s examine the BDO Professional Judgment Framework, starting with the outer ring of baseline attributes,
moving inward to the essential iterative actions, and then to the steps of a sound judgment process (see Figure 1). When all of
the elements of the BDO Professional Judgment Framework are effectively in place, you maximize the likelihood of consistently
exercising high-quality professional judgment. In other words, consistent professional judgment is accomplished by executing the
steps of a good judgment process in the presence of the essential iterative actions and baseline attributes.
1
PROFESSIONAL 6
Define
the Matter
JUDGMENT Reflect
2 5
COACH 3 4 COMMUNICATE
Specify Reach
Objectives Conclusion
I T E R AT I
CH
V E ACT ION S
EN
NI
CONSULT DOCUMENT
M
CA
CU
KN A
L
O S S
W
LE NE
DG SI
E AVOID TRAPS AND BIASES BU
B A S E L I N E AT T R I B U T E S
APPROPRIATE MINDSET
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The baseline attributes in the BDO Professional Judgment The professional or team of professionals deemed as having
Framework form the foundation upon which our professional the necessary baseline attributes relative to the judgment
judgments rest. They represent key attributes that must be being made undertake a set of five iterative actions to be
present in the people exercising professional judgment and employed throughout as they apply the steps of a sound
consist of: technical knowledge, appropriate mindset, and judgment process. They include coach, consult, avoid traps and
business acumen. biases, document, and communicate.
XXTechnical knowledge: A thorough understanding of the XXCoach: Using the process of engaging in a significant audit
applicable accounting and auditing standards and our BDO judgment as an opportunity to develop and accelerate the
audit methodology, as well as any other specialized skills or judgment and business maturity of our professionals at
knowledge that are relevant to a particular judgment. different levels.
XXAppropriate mindset: In audit settings, an appropriate XXConsult: Making use of resources outside of the team
mindset implies an attitude of professional skepticism, to ensure adequate levels of the baseline attributes are
which is a required component of the auditor’s general present relative to the judgment, to provide alternative
duty of professional care that applies throughout the perspectives (or frames), and to appropriately involve
audit—an attitude that includes being thoughtful, the firm in judgments that involve the management of
questioning, evaluative, and critically assessing the significant risks. Consultation should occur throughout all
appropriateness and sufficiency of audit evidence. Such a levels of the engagement team as the judgment process
mindset will lead naturally to “stepping back” on a regular moves forward.
basis throughout the process of making a judgment to
XXAvoid Traps and Biases: Proactively identifying where a
evaluate our progress and ensure we bring professionalism
judgment might be compromised by systematic judgment
to our work.
traps and biases, and taking steps to mitigate their
XXBusiness acumen: A broad-based understanding of potential to undermine the quality of the judgment.
the audited entity’s business and the industry and
XXDocument: Creating a record of the approach to making
macroeconomic climate in which it operates, an
a judgment—as appropriate to the significance and
understanding of BDOs core purpose and core values, as
importance of the judgment—including important aspects
well as the emotional intelligence to navigate interpersonal
of the baseline attributes brought to bear, the essential
interactions professionally and effectively.
iterative actions taken, and the steps involved in the
These baseline attributes are expected to be present when judgment process. This is done sufficiently to justify
any significant judgment is made during the conduct of an and corroborate the soundness of the professional
audit. It is important to note that (1) these attributes are to judgment made.
be interpreted and evaluated relative to the judgment being XXCommunicate: Appropriately conveying outputs of the 1
made, and (2) the necessary attributes may not all be present judgment process to relevant parties in order to satisfy
in a single individual for each important audit judgment, but professional standards and expectations of the firm, the
they should be present in the “portfolio” of attributes brought 2
client, the engagement team, and other stakeholders.
together by an engagement team of professionals and the
BDO team as a whole. At the outset of making any significant As these actions are described as iterative, they can and should
occur many times throughout our judgment process rather 3
judgment, an evaluation should be made to ensure that the
baseline attributes are collectively present in sufficient degree than at any one point or step.
for the particular judgment in the individuals or team tasked
4
with making the judgment. While the baseline attributes of
technical knowledge and business acumen can be understood in
terms of a “portfolio,” each individual professional is expected to 5
maintain an appropriate mindset in all judgment settings in our
role of an evaluator. Additionally, this initial evaluation point in
the framework would bring to light the potential need to consult 6
with experts from around BDO who possess the deep technical
knowledge required for the judgment.
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Having the baseline attributes in place, together with a robust, iterative Take a moment to consider
implementation of essential actions, we undertake the steps that comprise a sound how the BDO Professional
judgment process: Define the Matter, Specify Objectives, Identify Possibilities, Gather Judgment Framework can
and Analyze Information, Reach a Conclusion, and Reflect. help in undertaking each of
the essential iterative actions
1. Define the Matter: Clearly and comprehensively articulate the matter to be
discussed at left. For example,
addressed, the issue to be solved, the risks involved, the judgment to be made—
in coaching an associate on the
a critical starting point that sets the direction for the entire judgment process.
engagement team, a manager on
2. Specify Objectives: Clearly specify what is to be achieved by making a judgment the team might briefly explain
or coming to a conclusion—the outcome of this step guides the development of a the judgment that the team is
set of possible alternative conclusions or actions to be taken. about to make using the BDO
3. Identify Possibilities: Develop a set of possible judgment conclusions or actions Professional Judgment Framework
to be taken by considering how the objectives specified in Step 2 might best be as an organizing principle
achieved and the related impact of each possible outcome. in explaining the essential
elements and process. Given that
4. Gather and Analyze Information: Identify the information to be gathered, both professionals have been
guided by the set of possible judgment conclusions or actions to be taken in trained in the essentials of the
Step 3. Gather and analyze the information–including contradictory evidence– Framework and the underlying
in terms of how each conclusion or action might lead to the achievement of concepts and vocabulary,
objectives specified in Step 2. the process of coaching will
5. Reach Conclusion: Reach a judgment conclusion or decide on an action to be be consistent, effective, and
taken based on the information gathered and analyzed in Step 4. efficient. The associate will be
able to reference the Framework
6. Reflect: Step back and take a holistic view of the judgment process undertaken
in organizing and making sense
and the conclusion reached, considering whether any essential objective, possible
of her or his experience as the
conclusion, or information has been omitted, and whether the overall conclusion
judgment process is undertaken.
reached is reasonable from various viewpoints.
The Framework will provide a
While the steps outlined above are deliberate and relatively intuitive, it can be way for the associate to better
surprisingly powerful to have access to a well-developed model of sound judgment understand tasks assigned to her
as you approach important decisions, especially if the model is shared in common or him in a broader context and
with other team members. This judgment model can provide an organizing framework to better articulate questions that
for coaching, for documenting significant audit judgments, and even for operational arise. At the end of the process,
1 matters where judgments and decisions are to be made. As you will see in later when the judgment has been
chapters, this simple judgment model provides a context in which to understand made, the manager can then
where people, including even the most experienced audit professionals, tend to coach the associate by pointing
2 to baseline attributes, essential
systematically and predictably fall into judgment traps and biases.
iterative actions, and steps in
the judgment process that went
3
well or that need improvement.
In this example and in practice,
4
the Framework provides a shared
conceptual tool to organize,
understand, and convey the
5 coaching and development of our
less experienced professionals.
A similar application of the
6 Framework can be made as to
how it can facilitate each of the
iterative actions outlined above.
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SUMMARY
Learning to drive a car requires a form of conceptual predictable and systematic traps and biases can derail good
framework that defines the baseline attributes of those who judgment. It will encourage consistent behavior in driving
are allowed to take the wheel, understanding the actions toward desired outcomes. The Framework will facilitate
that must be regularly and iteratively taken to ensure proper consistency in reaching our objective of making sound
maintenance and knowing the basic process of safely operating professional judgments supported by justifiable conclusions
the vehicle on the road, while being aware of other drivers and effective documentation. The Framework will also aid us in
and varying road conditions. Similarly, making complex dealing with and clearly communicating complex issues, and in
professional audit judgments can be difficult no matter what the development of our people at BDO. Good judgment takes
stage of our career we are in; but having a shared conceptual experience, but it also takes training, repetition, and consistent
framework can facilitate our collective efforts. The reality is application—the BDO Professional Judgment Framework
that no matter how experienced and expert we are in applying provides the foundation for this effort across the firm.
professional judgment, we can all improve—no one has
perfected the art of judgment and decision making! Having We discuss the three primary components of the BDO
a shared, firm-wide professional judgment framework won’t Professional Judgment Framework in the next three chapters,
always result in flawless decisions, but it will help elevate the beginning with a chapter on the six-step judgment process at
quality of our judgment processes and our judgments overall. the core of the model, followed by a chapter on the essential
actions that must take place iteratively as we undertake the
It is our expectation that the firm-wide implementation of the judgment process, and then by a chapter on the baseline
BDO Professional Judgment Framework will serve to provide attributes that must be in place for a judgment process to
a shared conceptual foundation and common vocabulary for be effective.
our audit professionals, and a context to understand where
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CHAPTER 2
The Steps of a Sound Professional Judgment Process
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Under-investment in Step 1 of a good judgment process often tendency for action can result in an under-investment in
happens because we assume we have a good grasp of the Step 1. This tendency is referred to as “the rush to solve.”
key matter at hand. Unfortunately, our definition of the The problem with being in a rush to solve is that a quick
matter may not be precise enough to allow for clear thinking in and effective solution may not address the right problem.
subsequent steps or it may be too narrowly specified. We often
are susceptible to under-investing here because the key matter The key to avoiding the rush to solve trap is to pause
may seem obvious—far more obvious than it might actually for as long as needed before taking action to be sure we
be. Step 1 is critically important because, as Stephen R. Covey, individually, and collectively in our teams, have a clear
author of Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, said, “If the and shared understanding of the matter to be resolved.
ladder is not leaning against the right wall, every step we take This can often require only a few minutes of time, even
just gets us to the wrong place faster.” for fairly significant judgment situations. But even if it
A key part of fully defining the matter involves fully requires lengthy discussion, it is likely to be time well spent.
appreciating and assessing the related risks. Risk If you have an hour to solve a problem, spending the first
assessment is a key foundation of our audits and occurs before 45 minutes on clearly defining the problem often is key
we undertake any substantive procedures or perform detailed to effectively solving the problem in the last 15 minutes.
analysis. It helps us to focus our attention where it really Remember, a good solution to the right problem is
matters. As we work to identify the matter at hand, we should better than a great solution to the wrong problem!
determine where risks might exist so we can appropriately
While maintaining our orientation toward solving
consider them throughout the rest of the process.
problems, we must avoid the rush to solve trap that can
For every meaningful judgment we are faced with, it is worth so often lead to under-investment in Step 1. The rush
asking: Do we fully and clearly understand the matter at hand to solve trap can also derail other steps in the Judgment
and the risks involved? And: Is this understanding shared by Framework as we will see below.
all involved in making the judgment? For simple judgments,
this might require a 10-second pause, while for extremely
complex judgments, this step can involve hours or even days. Decision Trigger.
Proper identification and alignment by the team in defining a For every judgment situation, there is, by definition, an
complex matter will require us to bring to bear our business event or a piece of information that initially makes us
acumen and technical skills, all with an appropriate mindset aware that we have a judgment to make. A “decision
of professional skepticism. But it is important to realize that trigger” comes about due to the way we are made aware
getting to a clear, shared understanding of the matter is of a judgment situation, which often has an undue
often not nearly as obvious or as simple as it may seem at influence on how we define the matter to be resolved.
first glance. A decision trigger can cause us to define the matter too
narrowly, often in terms of simply making a selection
Three of the most damaging judgment traps can occur in among an artificially restricted set of possibilities (see 1
Step 1 of the judgment process. After putting a label on these Step 3). In other words, a decision trigger is yet another
traps, you will start to see them all around you in the decisions reason people tend to under-invest in Step 1 of a good
2
people make (and you will likely start to see them in your own judgment process, skipping straight to a constricted Step
judgments as well.). Fortunately, awareness of the traps will 3. For example, suppose you have an alarm system in your
allow us to identify strategies to avoid and overcome these home. It is older, but it serves its purpose reasonably well. 3
common pitfalls. However, you get a call from a salesperson telling you
that they can install a newer system that includes new
Rush to Solve. features. The phone call proposing a particular new system 4
Successful professionals are often characterized as decisive is the “trigger.” Most people will immediately approach
“problem solvers.” This is because proactively tackling such a situation by conceptualizing it as a choice between
problems and solving them is a big part of how effective staying with their existing system or buying the one the 5
professionals achieve their success. This is an important salesperson has proposed. In other words, Step 1 has been
trait. However, as with many key strengths, there’s an automatically defined in terms of selecting between a
6
associated potential downside. “Problem solvers” often constrained set of possible options. But in reality, taking
tend toward immediate action, and sometimes this a few moments to come to a clear understanding of the
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Once we have identified the matter and specified our Again, if we start with a ‘blank sheet of paper’ and seek
objectives, it’s time to identify the possible alternatives that outside input, we will likely identify possibilities that
will allow us to address the matter at hand while meeting didn’t occur to us in these other situations, or that we
our objectives. We approach Step 3 by asking “how” we can did identify previously but did not select, though these
resolve the matter and achieve the objectives identified in options may be more appropriate in the current situation.
Step 1 and Step 2. The answers that we develop in response
to this “how” question will lead to the possibilities we will There are three common judgment traps we need to be
identify in Step 3. (This is why those first two steps especially careful of when identifying possibilities.
are so critical!)
Step 3 of the judgment process often requires a disciplined SALY (Same As Last Year).
balance of outside-of-the-box thinking—identifying possibilities Identify Possibilities is the step in the judgment process
that are not typical, yet also in-the-box thinking—as where true innovation can happen. Though the alternative
sometimes an appropriate approach and possible outcomes we eventually select may end up being very similar to
stems from experience on similar judgments. The reason Step 3 what has been done before, if what we have done before
is so important, particularly for complex, difficult, high-stakes is the only option in the set of possibilities we identify, we
judgments, is that our final judgment can only be as good as have likely fallen prey to the SALY trap. Doing what has
the best possibility we considered. If we underinvest in this been done before is not necessarily a bad thing. These are
step, we may carelessly not identify appropriate possibilities for typically tried and tested solutions. However, as Benjamin
the situation. If we don’t identify suitable possibilities, we can’t Franklin is reported to have said: “When you’re finished
implement them. Properly performing this step requires being changing, you’re finished.” We must continue to innovate
open to all possibilities, not starting our analysis by trying to and provide the most appropriate solutions for a given
confirm or disconfirm the client’s desired approach. The most situation. Sometimes, that solution is the same as last
appropriate possibilities are sometimes not the same as the year. Often, however, the solution will require innovation
client’s preference, and we will limit our ability to identify and beyond what has been done before.
select from a broader set of possibilities if we start by trying to
justify the client’s position. It is our professional responsibility To overcome the SALY trap, we should actively identify the
to take a step back and start with a ‘blank sheet of paper’ in SALY or near-SALY possibilities and ensure that these are
identifying all relevant possibilities given the issue at hand and
not the only possibilities we identify. For example, if we
our stated objectives. For completeness and a check against
are writing down a list of possibilities we have identified,
unintended traps, it can help to get others’ perspectives on
labelling the SALY options will highlight whether or not
possibilities we might be missing.
we are trapped in SALY thinking. If everything we have
1 on our list is labelled SALY, we likely shouldn’t end our
How can we identify possibilities or options to address consideration of possible alternatives.
the matter at hand? Some possibilities will include what
2 we have done in similar situations, but we can’t stop
there. When considering what has been done in similar Idea Production Blocking.
situations, we should consider whether circumstances, or Identifying all relevant possibilities requires innovation, so
3 objectives, have changed or could impact other results. we need to be careful of actions that might shut down
What didn’t work before might work now. We might creative thinking. Though working in teams comes with
consider what we have learned since the last time we tremendous advantages, one challenge of teamwork is
4 groupthink, where the team coalesces around a single way
faced a similar issue that could alter the possibilities
before us. Or we might consider the ways in which similar of thinking. There are many reasons this may happen—a
situations are dissimilar: are there key details that give dominant personality on the team, a desire to please or to
5
rise to new possibilities that should be considered, or that avoid conflict, and so on. Another reason is that once we
eliminate possibilities that were once relevant? Are there hear an idea, it’s hard to set that idea aside and think of a
new techniques for gathering and analyzing evidence that new, completely independent idea. In other words, starting
6
open doors to new possibilities? with a ‘blank sheet of paper’ is very, very difficult.
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Idea Production Blocking occurs when an idea is shared If these team members are inhibited with concern over how
and that idea inadvertently shuts down additional, new they will be evaluated, they are likely susceptible to holding
ideas. For example, if you asked someone to list as many back, staying quiet, and deferring to more senior team
fictional story characters as they can in 30 seconds and members. We fall prey to the evaluation apprehension trap
began by saying, “For example: Huckleberry Finn,” you will when we stay silent to avoid embarrassment, even though
likely get a much shorter list, on average, than if you don’t we may have valuable insights.
give the “Huckleberry Finn” example.
Overcoming this trap happens from the bottom up and
With the “Huckleberry Finn” idea in mind, idea production from the top down. Every team member should have
is somewhat blocked. The person you asked for characters the confidence that their input is valuable and may lead
will likely respond with “Tom Sawyer,” then move to other to furthering and expanding perspectives. If that were
characters in books. Whereas a person given no example is not true, the individual would not be on the team. This
more likely to draw from a much larger pool for their list confidence will strengthen with experience. Further, every
of fictional characters, including movies, songs, fairy tales, team member should know that it is their responsibility
cartoons, and books. to participate, even if they believe doing so might expose
them to unwanted evaluation.
So, how do we get the benefit of teamwork without
falling prey to idea production blocking? There are some Engagement team leaders should be supportive of and
simple strategies that will help. For instance, if we plan empowering to team members who they believe may
to work together as a team to generate alternatives, fall prey to evaluation apprehension. We must not allow
we should make sure the team knows in advance to our team members to stay quiet when their views are
be thinking of alternatives on their own. Setting this needed. Provide assurances to your team that being on a
expectation is important because we never know who team requires everyone’s input, and sometimes the most
might provide thought provoking ideas. It is important important input comes from those who are newest to
to create an environment where less experienced team the team. Evaluation apprehension is a natural human
members feel comfortable sharing ideas without the fear tendency, but if we are going to identify appropriate
of ridicule as this can stunt their innovative mindset early possible solutions to the issues at hand, we must avoid
in their career. falling prey to this trap.
apprehensive about sharing. through each note, is a powerful way of drawing out the
best ideas of the group without falling prey to the idea
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Once we have identified the possible approaches and information from reliable outside sources to be certain we
outcomes to the matter at hand, it’s time to start gathering have everything we need to make a high-quality judgment.
and analyzing information related to these possibilities. And if there is no information in our analysis that provides
Interestingly, though this is the fourth step in the judgment contradictory points of view, we may need to keep gathering.
model, it is often the first step we want to take. We tend
to give limited consideration to the first three steps and There are many judgment traps associated with this step in
immediately jump to data analysis. Partly, this is because the judgment process. Avoiding these traps is essential, as
gathering and analyzing information feels like work. We might the information we gather and the analyses we perform will
feel like we're actually getting something done rather than just determine our final conclusion.
talking or thinking about doing work, but jumping to this step
too soon is the rush to solve trap discussed in previous steps. WYSIATI.
Many are familiar with the term “WYSIWYG” (pronounced
Gathering and analyzing information will require that we “wizzy-wig”). This stands for “What You See Is What
have the technical knowledge necessary for the task at hand You Get.” Fewer may be familiar with the term WYSIATI
(discussed further in Chapter 4). It will also require that we (pronounced “wizzy-ahtty”), though many fall victim to
stay vigilant and work hard to avoid bias (discussed in Chapters the WYSIATI trap. WYSIATI stands for “What You See Is
3 and 5). Bias can be especially dangerous at this stage All There Is.” When gathering information, it is essential
in our judgment process, as our personal preferences, that we don’t fall prey to the common tendency to
background, and incentives can affect what information we assume that the data immediately available to us is
gather and how we interpret that information. “all there is.” Sometimes we have to dig for the most
valuable information.
When gathering information, we should consider
applicable standards, precedent-setting guidance, previous
experience, industry practices, firm guidance, team How do we avoid getting caught in the WYSIATI trap?
member insights, etc. We should never limit ourselves to just As the auditing standards require of audit evidence, we
a small handful of go-to sources for applicable information. must ensure that we have sufficient and appropriate
That said, not all information is applicable. information. Sufficiency refers to the quantity of
information gathered. We can rarely gather every piece
We should carefully consider the of information that is potentially relevant to a decision,
reliability, validity, certainty, and but we must look beyond the obvious and ensure that
we haven’t missed valuable information that may be
accuracy of information and we should instrumental in our final judgment. Appropriateness refers
1
evaluate data that both supports and to the completeness and quality of information. Some
information, while superficially relevant to our judgment,
2
contradicts options under consideration. may be less valuable because it lacks appropriateness in
regards to reliability. For example, information that comes
Our analyses must be sound and our techniques used must be
from a questionable source, that is incomplete, or that is
appropriate for the matter at hand.
3 highly subjective in nature is less reliable and thus, less
Additionally, we need to be sure that the information appropriate. This information should not be ignored, but it
and evidence used in our analysis should always extend should be duly weighted in our analyses.
4 beyond inquiry of management and schedules prepared by
management. As the audit standards say, inquiry alone is never
sufficient audit evidence, even though it is a key piece of the
5
information we gather and analyze. After taking a step back
and reviewing the population of information we have gathered,
if only inquiries or management-prepared schedules make up
6
this population, we should continue to seek out additional
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 15
Illusory Correlations. People see correlations when they Gambler’s Fallacy. People believe that random repetitions
are not really there. For example, a manager may glance at of an event will “correct” and go the opposite direction. For
sales and customer satisfaction data and see a correlation example, for events that understand to be truly random,
between these two metrics when, in reality, there is no we might still believe we can predict future events based
correlation to be found. on past, random events. This fallacy was first identified
among gamblers (“This slot machine is due for a win.”); but
Invisible Correlations. People don’t see correlations when the fallacy is frequently seen in professional settings. For
they are there. For example, a manager looking at two example, if weather has negatively impacted a business
performance metrics (say sales and customer satisfaction, as segment for the past three years straight, we might assume
in the previous example) and does not see a correlation, but that the probability of a fourth year of bad luck is extremely 1
the actual statistical correlation is quite strong. unlikely. But past random outcomes do not predict future
Hot Hand Fallacy. People see random repetitions of an random outcomes. Consider flipping a coin: getting heads
three times in a row does not mean the next flip is more likely 2
event and believe the event is not random, but indicative of
an underlying pattern. This fallacy was first demonstrated to be tails. The next flip has a 50-50 chance of being tails,
in sports but is prevalent in business settings as well. For just like the first three flips.
3
example, when considering the performance of a firm, Base Rate Neglect. People tend to assess probabilities
our tendency may be to assume a pattern after viewing without taking sufficient account of the base-rate probability
two upward (or downward) quarterly outcomes, when of that event. For example, in considering the financial 4
statistically-speaking there is no pattern. performance of a given division, we may look at common
measures of their financial performance but ignore economy-
5
wide indicators that could have a tremendous impact
on financial outcomes. The base-rate performance we
should expect, given the economy, must not be ignored or 6
underweighted when developing our expectations.
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16 / PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO
Reaching a conclusion can be either the easiest or the most difficult step in the judgment process. Sometimes, after we have
gathered and analyzed the information relating to each of the possibilities we’ve identified, the solution is obvious: there is one and
only one right way to go. Other times, even after collecting and thoroughly analyzing data for our possible alternatives, we are left to
make a subjective determination. There is not one right way to reach a conclusion when subjectivity is involved. There are, however,
three general ways you might consider making a decision in Step 5.
1. Follow intuition. Intuitive choices are very efficient, 3. Objectifying the subjective. At some point, we may
but not always effective. They are best used when the need to rely on intuition or simplifying heuristics, to some
1 judgment is of low importance or when a speedy decision degree. However, it is best to use the most objective
is needed. process possible for coming to our conclusion. We might
consider using a weighting model that looks at the
2 2. Follow heuristics. Heuristics are general rules or
pros and cons of each alternative under consideration.
shortcuts that we use to simplify difficult judgments.
We might even apply weights to conflicting objectives.
For example, consider the selection of your seat on an
For example, a company may want to increase cost
3 airline flight. Rather than think about exactly which seat
transparency for their customers while maintaining their
you want to sit in, you might use the heuristic of always
competitive pricing advantage over
sitting close to the front (or close to the back, or near the
4 their competitors, but it may not be possible to share
exit rows). This reduces complexity because it doesn’t
cost information with customers while ensuring
require consideration of all possible options. The problem
competitors do not learn these costs. As possibilities
with heuristics is that they often lead us to overlook the
5 are considered in arriving at a conclusion, management
objectives we specified in Step 2. Thus, heuristics can
must weigh the importance of each stated objective and
greatly accelerate reaching a conclusion, but can diminish
consider how the alternatives available achieve or fail to
6 the quality of our judgment by overriding the work put
achieve these objectives.
into prior steps in the judgment process.
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 17
Though it is difficult to provide explicit guidance regarding how to reach a conclusion in every situation, there are certain traps to
avoid when coming to a conclusion. In other words, knowing what NOT to do can be just as helpful as knowing what to do when
trying to reach a conclusion.
Conformity.
The surrogation trap is especially problematic in Step 5. Most people have an aversion to being too different from
It is at this point that we are considering the impact of their peers. Even self-proclaimed “non-conformists” may
different actions we may take. We must ensure that we become uncomfortable standing out from the crowd in
are thinking about the impact of our choice on what we unpleasant ways. The tendency to want to conform to
care most about and not about imperfect metrics of these the behavior of other is, at some level, almost universal.
constructs. Avoiding the surrogation trap can be difficult. Conformity becomes a trap when it leads groups to reach
The first step is to carefully consider what each metric a consensus even though some members of the group
we use represents. Metrics are typically not, in and of may have misgivings about the agreed-upon conclusion.
themselves, useful. They are reflections of something else Sometimes multiple team members may disagree with
that matters to us. Engaging in this high-level thinking, the conclusion, but they believe everyone else agrees
always asking ourselves “what is the goal I really care (a phenomenon known as pluralistic ignorance). The
about” and “what does this metric represent” are helpful in conformity trap is one of the major culprits behind the
avoiding surrogation. groupthink problem—where the group tends to behave
as a single individual rather than as independent decision
makers working together to add value from their diverse
Paralysis by Analysis.
backgrounds.
When no single conclusion jumps out as the obvious
choice, our task becomes more difficult. Sometimes we Related to the conformity trap is the tendency to fully
need to go back and revisit our data analysis to help align opinions with a strong leader. While following
us differentiate between alternatives and select the good leadership is important, blind conformity and false
best option. However, if the “optimal” choice cannot agreement with a leader is detrimental to professional
be identified, there may be some uncertainty in the judgment. Good leaders are critical to the success of a
conclusion that we reach. In these moments, we are at team, but leaders are not omniscient. They work with
risk of the paralysis by analysis trap—continually analyzing a team in part because of the different perspectives, or
our options and never reaching a final conclusion. frames, various team members can provide.
Avoiding paralysis by analysis may require including in Step Avoiding the conformity trap can be difficult. For an
2 an explicit objective to reach a conclusion by a deadline individual to avoid this trap, they must have confidence
or within a resource budget constraint. If the conclusion in who they are and in their own skills and knowledge.
cannot be reached within that constraint, then the team They must also have the courage to swim against the tide
should consult with and request input from others at BDO. when necessary. Fortunately, team members who simply
express doubt (without actively fighting the rest of the
group) can be the key to opening the door for others to
1
express their views that may contradict the consensus.
When a single member of a team expresses a contrary
opinion, the conformity trap begins to dissipate and the
2
full benefit of working with a team with differing points of
view can be realized.
3
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 19
STEP 6: REFLECT
professionals in supervisory roles will use this XXWill this judgment have a resulting impact on other
shared conceptual framework in training, areas within the audit? 5
Even during the final step of the judgment process we must But sometimes an outstanding judgment process can lead
carefully avoid judgment traps. to “bad” or difficult outcomes, and a poorly managed
judgment process can lead to “good” or easy outcomes.
Historian’s Fallacy.
The historian’s fallacy trap takes two forms. The first is the To overcome this form of the historian’s fallacy, we must
tendency, when looking back on a judgment, to overlook carefully consider all components of a good judgment
the “fog of war,” or the uncertainty that existed during the process, rather than simply assess outcomes or overlook
judgment process. For example, once we have a shared the uncertainty faced before reaching our conclusion.
understanding of the matter at hand and of our objectives, As before, doing so requires proactive framing—viewing
we may tend to forget the work it took to arrive at that the judgment process from the perspective of someone
understanding. We may then reflect on Steps 1 and 2 of the who is not aware of judgment outcomes. The curse of
judgment process and believe that perhaps we overinvested knowledge can make this proactive framing especially
in these steps, and that next time we should move more challenging, but doing so is essential to avoiding the
quickly during the early stages of our judgment. historian’s fallacy judgment trap.
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 21
CHAPTER 3
Iterative Actions
In carrying out a good judgment process, there is a set of five essential iterative actions that should occur (see Figure 3). These
actions are not included as part of the sequential steps of the judgment process itself, because each of them will take place at any
point throughout the judgment process and because they are more repetitive and frequently occur within and between the six
judgment steps.
maintain the baseline attributes; coach them to improve We should consult with others throughout the professional
understanding and execution of the essential iterative actions judgment process, as well as in relation to the other iterative
(including coaching.); and coach them to know what a good actions and baseline attributes that are part of the Framework.
judgment process looks like in various settings and to recognize
the traps and biases that can undermine that process.
Coaching is not a one-sided activity. Those being coached AVOID TRAPS AND BIAS
should be active participants in the coaching process. We
should actively seek out opportunities to receive coaching Every professional, from the most experienced
from those with greater experience or knowledge on the leader to the recent graduate, is susceptible to biases
matter at hand. It can be difficult or uncomfortable for people when making decisions or exercising professional judgment.
to deliver critical feedback when improvement is needed—but We’ve already discussed common judgment traps associated
this is the feedback we all need to receive so we can improve with each step of the judgment process. These judgment traps
our performance (and our career prospects). Delivering and are behaviors that can derail an otherwise sound judgment
receiving critical feedback can become a powerfully positive process. Biases are problematic ways in which we, because
experience for all involved if the recipient not only is open to we are human, tend to approach situations, decisions, or our
receive critical feedback but also has an attitude of actively interactions with others. They distort the way we remember
seeking it out. Such an attitude signals to the coach that the and process information and affect our thoughts without our
receiver is sincerely interested in making positive strides, often being aware they are doing so. In fact, because our self-image
resulting in additional career-enhancing opportunities. If you encourages us to assume that we are unbiased, it is far easier
recognize an area for opportunity in your performance, seek to detect biased decision making in others than it is to see
out coaching so that you can perform at your best. it in ourselves. The tendency to see the bias of others but not
our own bias is common enough to have its own name: the
blind spot bias.
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 23
Principle 2: Communication happens even if we don’t say anything. For example, not replying to an
email sometimes says more than replying says. Don’t assume that because nothing was said, nothing
was heard.
Principle 3: Actions speak louder than words. A person who promises on a deadline is less believable than a
person who consistently meets deadlines. A person who expresses kind words is less believable than a person
who actively serves. Words matter, but they should be coupled with works.
Principle 4: We have two ears and one mouth for a reason. A good rule of thumb is to try listening about twice
as much as you talk. Listening is key to good communication. The most eloquent orator will fail if their power of
speech is not matched by their capacity to hear.
Principle 5: Communication mediums affect meaning. Consider messages sent via email versus spoken face
to face. The emotion behind the phrase “Congratulations on your promotion” is lost when read via email. The
facial expressions, excitement, and happiness simply are not captured in 12-Point Times New Roman font.
Sometimes punctuation can help (“Congratulations!”)—but the variability in tone and emotions is severely
limited in written communication. Even phone conversations lose essential components of communication.
Though not all communication can (or should) happen face-to-face, referring back to Principle 1: it’s important
to consider that what is said is not necessarily what is heard.
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 25
CHAPTER 4
Baseline Attributes
Foundational to good professional judgment are the three baseline attributes of Technical Knowledge, Appropriate Mindset, and
Business Acumen (see Figure 4). Without these attributes, the rest of the actions we take will not be effective. We may follow all of the
right judgment steps and perform the necessary iterative actions, but if our technical knowledge is lacking, if we engage in the judgment
process without an appropriate mindset, or if our business acumen is inadequate, our professional judgment will be compromised.
Figure 4: Three Baseline Attributes of Professional Judgment Let’s consider each of these essential baseline attributes
individually. We will start with the bedrock attribute of
Technical Appropriate Business any assurance service: an appropriate mindset of
Knowledge Mindset Acumen professional skepticism.
APPROPRIATE MINDSET
AU-C 200, Overall Objective of the Independent Auditor and Maintaining an appropriate mindset means seeing ourselves
the Conduct of an Audit in Accordance with Generally Accepted as an agent for stakeholders, with an eye on our broader
Auditing Standards, defines professional skepticism as “an responsibilities to the public. We need to remember who our
attitude that includes a questioning mind, being alert to primary stakeholders are and our responsibilities to them in
conditions that may indicate possible misstatement due to order to exercise an appropriate level of professional skepticism
fraud or error, and a critical assessment of audit evidence.” and maintain a questioning attitude. Approaching our audit 1
AS 1015, Due Professional Care in the Performance of Work, work with a “mindset of an evaluator” will align us with our
defines professional skepticism as “an attitude that includes a responsibilities to the public. Phillip Austin,
questioning mind and a critical assessment of audit evidence.” National Assurance Managing Partner of 2
The term “questioning mind” is a keystone of these two Auditing at BDO states:
definitions. The central and most fundamental baseline attribute
of the BDO Professional Judgment Framework is the mindset 3
we bring to our work. This involves having the mindset of an
“When we can commit to
evaluator, based on the questioning attitude and approach the mindset of an evaluator and we
4
to our work that comes from an appropriate and consistently can execute professional skepticism in
maintained sense of professional skepticism.
everything we do, then we will exceed
5
every expectation that the regulator,
client boards, our profession, and we, have
6
of ourselves.”
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26 / PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO
BUSINESS ACUMEN
The baseline attribute of business acumen is broad. In a way, it captures “the rest” of what it takes to have good professional judgment.
If we have a developed sense of business acumen, we will be better able to identify appropriate actions, potential risks, and client-
specific solutions. Additionally, we will be able to add more value to the services we provide to our clients, as solid business acumen
provides us with a widely applicable foundation for understanding their business and the world in which they operate. Without this
foundation, the probability of quality judgment is compromised.
As it pertains to professional judgment, business acumen can be broken down into three components.
1. Understanding the Client. We must have a deep • Self-Management: The ability to control our emotions
understanding of our client’s industry, business model, and impulses in an effective and healthy way and to
management, culture, regulatory environment, and so on. adapt to changing circumstances. Understanding what
This understanding comes through research, direct work we need to change and actually changing are two
and experience with the client, experience in other related different things. Those with good self-management make
settings, and formal training. It also comes through the changes needed to ensure consistent, high-quality
continuous communications with the client (as discussed professional judgment. The ability to self-manage is
in Chapter 3). Until we understand our client, we are not also key to having the courage to maintain and act on a
qualified to engage in professional judgment that affects professionally skeptical, evaluative mindset.
our client. • Social Awareness: The ability to recognize the needs,
2. Understanding BDO. All employees who undertake wants, motivations, pressures, and emotions of those
professional judgment at BDO must understand who we around us. We don’t exercise professional judgment in a
are and what we stand for as a professional services firm. vacuum—others are affected by the judgments we make.
They must know and internalize of our firm’s culture, Understanding how others will react or interact with
core purpose and core values, as well as policies in place those judgments is essential for ensuring high-quality
around the services we provide. This understanding and outcomes. For example, recognizing the motivations of
internalization will come over time but can be expedited client management is a key component of designing and
through training and exposure to and use of the BDO USA conducting effective audit procedures.
Audit Manual, and other resources (such as this guide). • Social Skills: The ability to use interpersonal skills to
Knowing the “why” behind BDO policies and initiatives communicate and interact effectively with others and
will empower us to engage in the high level of professional influence their behaviors in constructive ways. Our
judgment to which we aspire. ability to have positive, constructive interactions with
3. Emotional Intelligence (EQ). Emotional intelligence our colleagues and clients is necessary to providing
high-quality professional judgment and accelerating it 1
refers to our ability to understand, navigate, and
appropriately influence our own emotions and behaviors, in our professionals at all levels. Without the ability to
as well as the emotions and behaviors of others. BDO communicate and interact effectively, our judgment, no
2
recognizes that the EQ of its professionals is critical matter how great, is of little value.
to their individual success and to the success of the
Though we often think of “acumen” as skills or talents that we
firm. Developing your EQ will help in your professional 3
are born with, most of the key components of good business
judgment and all your professional relationships. EQ can
acumen can be acquired through training and experience. Some
be broken into four parts:
of these components (like good EQ) come more naturally to
4
• Self-Awareness: The ability to recognize our emotions some people than to others. However, we must all work to
as they happen and to recognize our strengths, ensure that we have the necessary business acumen to provide
weaknesses, and motivations. Self-insight is key to the highest quality professional judgment possible. 5
continuous improvement. It helps us know where to seek
additional coaching, where more consultation is needed,
where we might be prone to bias, and more. 6
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28 / PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO
CHAPTER 5
Common Biases
One of the iterative actions discussed Of course, the first step towards overcoming bias is awareness that the bias exists.
in Chapter 3 is to “Avoid Traps and Four of the most common biases that affect the professional judgments of auditors
Biases.” Chapter 2 reviews the most are motivated reasoning, availability, overconfidence, and anchoring.
common traps to avoid throughout the
judgment process. In this chapter, we
will review the cognitive biases that
distort the way we recall and process
information. These biases happen
non-consciously. In other words, we
are typically completely unaware
that these biases are affecting our
behavior. What’s more, the biases we Motivated
discuss in this chapter are common Reasoning
even among the most experienced and
honest decision makers. Though it is
not possible to completely eradicate
bias from our judgment, it is possible
to significantly reduce the effects of
bias. With enough awareness, training,
and practice, some specific forms of Anchoring Availability
1
bias can be eliminated. With each
bias we discuss in this chapter, we will
2
also provide some simple methods to
reduce, and where possible, eliminate
the effect of the bias on our judgments.
3
Overconfidence
4
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 29
MOTIVATED REASONING
Motivated Reasoning may be the most pervasive and Another bias that is closely related to motivated reasoning is
subversive of all of the cognitive biases that affect our known as the backfire effect. Sometimes motivated reasoning
judgment. It is the tendency to “see what we want to see” is so strong that when we are presented with data that is
in data. In other words, our reasoning is affected by our inconsistent with our preferences, we walk away from the data
motivation and our preferences. presentation even more convinced of our prior preferences. In
other words, our response to the data is the opposite of what
This bias can take many forms. We may truncate our the presenter was hoping to accomplish with the data-driven
information search once we find data that supports our analysis. Interestingly, the part of the brain that is activated
preferred conclusion. We may ignore or underweight when the backfire effect occurs is the same part of the brain that
information that is contrary to our preferences, and overweight is activated when we are physically threatened. In other words,
information that better aligns with our preferences. We may the strong negative response that we sometimes feel, or that we
discredit or disbelieve data sources for information that receive from others, when data-driven “bad news” is presented,
conflicts with our preferences. Or we may interpret ambiguous is a physiological response tied to deeply ingrained bias.
information in ways that are consistent with our preferences.
Motivated reasoning can happen even when we use good So what can be done about motivated reasoning and its
analytical techniques and statistics to support our conclusions. cousins the confirmation bias and the backfire effect? As
The tendency to engage in data-driven motivated reasoning stated above, the first step is awareness. Knowing that we
has led to the adage: if you torture the data enough, it will have this tendency, and that our clients have this tendency,
confess to anything. is essential. But there are other specific steps we can take.
XXMake the Opposing Case. Since the confirmation
The “motivation” behind motivated reasoning can be hard
bias involves a tendency to only consider confirmatory
to spot. It can come from financial incentives, desires for information, we should actively consider what could go
promotion or influence, social pressures, personal preferences, wrong and take time to consider the opposing case from
time pressure, client preferences, and more. Most importantly, management's explanation. In some cases, the best
motivated reasoning is not a conscious effort to muddy way to make the opposing case is to actively seek
data or skew decisions to favor our own self-interest. On the disconfirming information. Finding this information
contrary, motivated reasoning can occur even when a decision does not necessarily mean we reverse course but
maker is trying hard to be unbiased, objective, and ethical. searching for it does help ensure that we will have all
The human tendency to succumb to motivated reasoning the appropriate data to make an objective decision.
involves collecting just enough evidence that we can feel—for XXSeek Contrary Opinions. Outside of awareness, the
ourselves—that we have done a good job of being objective. best antidote to motivated reasoning is to seek the
opinion of a trusted outsider, preferably an outsider 1
A close cousin to motivated reasoning is the confirmation who frequently sees situations differently from
bias. This bias involves a specific tendency to only consider ourselves. For example, asking a subordinate if our
confirmatory information when testing a hypothesis or judgment was free from bias will not be as effective 2
prediction, rather than looking for disconfirming information. as asking a peer. Another way of saying this is that we
Though this bias was only recently named, philosophers should seek to see the situation from different frames
have known about it for a long time. In 1690, Francis Bacon (as discussed in Chapter 2). 3
wrote, “It is the peculiar and perpetual error of the human XXPost-mortem Analysis. Considering how our decisions
understanding to be more moved and excited by affirmations will look to an outsider when read on the front page
4
than by negatives.” As with most biases, the confirmation bias of the news can help us gain perspective into our own
is seen even among top accounting professionals. For example, potential motivated reasoning.
when a tax client has a particular preferred tax strategy, XXRecusal. Occasionally, when we know that our personal 5
research has shown that tax professionals tend to seek out preferences will likely hinder our ability to be objective
court cases that provide support for that strategy, but do despite our best efforts and desire to be unbiased, we
not search for instances where the courts have denied the should recuse ourselves from the judgment. Although 6
client’s preferred tax treatment. situations that call for recusal are rare, sometimes it is
the best way to ensure objectivity.
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30 / PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO
AVAILABILITY
Availability is our tendency to remember vivid or salient As before, the best mechanism to fight availability is
information more rapidly than information that may be more awareness. Awareness after the fact, however, may not be
relevant, but that is less available in our memory. Most sufficient to help us reduce our tendency to succumb to
importantly, this ease-of-recall then affects our use of the the availability bias. Following are additional methods to
information. Information that is easier to bring to mind tends fight the availability bias.
to be weighted more heavily in our judgments.
XXDig into the Data. Availability happens when we rely
Like motivated reasoning, the availability bias can take many on our imperfect memory to make decisions. Perhaps
forms. Sometimes the most recent information we encounter the best way to combat the availability bias is to
is over-weighted. This form of availability is known as the ensure that our judgments are data-driven. Ensuring
recency bias. Sometimes the first information we encounter that our decisions are driven by data is not a cure-all
is over-weighted. This form of availability is known as the (for example, motivated reasoning can occur even
primacy bias. The primacy bias is behind the adage first with ample data usage), but it can help to significantly
impressions matter (they really do!). alleviate the availability bias.
While the first and the most recent information we encounter XXGood Documentation. Because our tendency
are often weighted heavily due to availability, information is to weight the information that is salient more
obtained during any part of our judgment process can be heavily than other information, it is imperative that
made to be more salient than other information, thus leading we accurately document all pertinent information
to an availability bias. Sometimes information is more salient and how it is used in our judgment. Without good
because of the way it is presented or who is presenting it. documentation, it may not be possible to make use
Often extreme outcomes are salient, though they are not of the first (and best) solution to availability:
always particularly informative. Even simple repetition can digging into the data. As discussed in Chapter 3, this
lead information to be more available. For example, research iterative action (document) is a key component to
has shown that mere repetition of the same good news for a avoiding bias.
company can have a continuing positive effect on that firm’s XXAdjust the Order. Because the order in which
stock price. In fact, even bad news can increase saliency and information is presented can matter—due to the
lead to a positive availability bias, so long as we don’t recall primacy and recency biases—we should carefully
the details behind the news. This tendency is behind the adage consider the order in which we review information. Do
any news is good news. we always look at information from a certain source
first or last? If so, adjusting the order may make
Availability can severely hinder our ability to be objective
1 sense. Also, when possible, have different reviewers or
and make good judgments. For example, consider Step 3 in
decision makers consider the information in a different
the judgment model: Identify Possibilities. If we tend to only
order to ensure that no one option is consistently
identify the possibilities that come most easily to mind, we
2 over-weighted due to the availability bias.
are likely to select a suboptimal alternative. Or during Step 4:
Gather and Analyze Information, we may overweight the
likelihood of a given outcome because of a similar experience
3
that is readily available in our memory, inappropriately
swaying our judgment. Snap judgments are the most likely
4 to be affected by the availability bias: when we rely on our
memory instead of other data sources, we are likely to fall prey
to the availability bias.
5
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 31
OVERCONFIDENCE
Overconfidence is perhaps the most misunderstood of the As with motivated reasoning and availability, awareness
judgment biases. The overconfidence bias is not necessarily is key to combating overconfidence. But awareness alone
about bravado, audacity, or boldness, though sometimes will only get you so far. Following are specific strategies to
this bias can lead to those traits and behaviors. When we employ to fight the overconfidence bias.
succumb to the overconfidence bias, we underestimate the
XXKnow What You Don’t Know. In his book Walden,
uncertainty that exists in a given setting.
Henry David Thoreau attributes to Confucius the
Evidence of overconfidence is seen in almost every profession adage: “To know that we know what we know, and
and throughout history. Consider the memorable comment of that we do not know what we do not know, that is
Lord Kelvin, famed British mathematician and father of the first true knowledge.” While it may seem circular to
and second laws of thermodynamics. In 1895 he proclaimed ‘know what we don’t know,’ it’s actually essential.
that “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Note Recognizing that there are gaps in our knowledge and
the complete certainty with which this brilliant physicist was that unpredictable events will likely occur is key to
completely wrong. Just eight short years later, the Wright good judgment. For example, to base a time estimate
brothers made their first flights at Kitty Hawk. Kelvin was an entirely upon factors we can control and predict places
expert, but he underestimated the uncertainty that still existed zero probability on the uncertainties that constantly
in the realm of physics. arise actually happening. We must come to the
knowledge that there are things we don’t know and
The overconfidence bias is common among business behave accordingly.
professionals. For example, evidence of overconfidence is seen
XXRed Flags of Certainty. Any time you hear yourself or
when we overpromise on deadlines, underestimating all of the
a colleague say they are 99% sure, pause and ask
factors that could keep us from accomplishing our objective by yourself what is uncertain and whether overconfidence
the proposed deadline. This particular tendency is so common may be at play. It may not be, but statements of
it's known as the planning fallacy. This form of overconfidence certainty or of arbitrarily high probability are red flags
can also lead us to take on too many projects. Overconfidence that may indicate an underweighting of uncertainty.
can also lead us to identify only one, seemingly “sure,”
alternative when working through the judgment framework. XXPre-mortem Thinking. Perhaps the best antidote
Overconfidence can also be the root cause behind the to overconfidence is pre-mortem thinking. Unlike
judgment trap we discussed in Step 3 of the judgment model— a post-mortem analysis, which happens after the
What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI). Indeed, overconfidence fact, pre-mortem thinking is the act of considering
can lead us to underinvest in the entire judgment process everything that could possibly lead to a bad outcome.
because we underestimate the uncertainty that abounds For example, if a home builder promises to deliver a
completed construction project by a given date, rather 1
and thus mistakenly believe that the components of good
than ask the builder, “How sure are you that you will
judgment are not needed.
be done by the deadline?” the owner would be wise to
say instead, “Let’s imagine the project is not done by the 2
ANCHORING
Anchoring is among the earliest studied judgment biases Additional strategies for combating the anchoring
discussed here. The full name of this bias is anchoring bias include:
and insufficient adjustment. This describes our tendency
XXClean the Slate. In some situations, you may be
to anchor to an initial numeric estimate and then fail to
able to approach a judgment without an anchor in
sufficiently adjust away from that anchor when making our
place. For example, if asked to give an independent
own numeric assessment. What makes this bias especially
assessment of the probability of a given event, avoid
troubling is that it occurs even if we know the initial anchor
asking for the assessment of others or a reasonable
is wrong. In fact, study after study has shown that even absurd
probability range. Starting without a numeric anchor
or completely random numeric anchors can have a strong
is the ideal, though it is rarely possible.
impact on professional judgments.
XXGet a Fresh Perspective. If you have already been
Where do these anchors come from? It could be exposed to an anchor, inviting another person who
management’s initial estimate, previous period results, does not have the same anchor in mind to assist in
performance benchmarks, targets, market rates, or the your assessment can be helpful. As explained earlier,
opening bid from a counterpart in a negotiation. In fact, when getting the points of view of others can help in
a numeric judgment is required, you almost never start with reducing multiple biases—not just anchoring.
a blank slate. Note that having an anchor does not mean
that we will necessarily arrive at the wrong answer. It just XXConsider Multiple Anchors. When anchors are
means that if we need to adjust away from the anchor to “dropped,” don’t allow them to sink too far before
get to a more accurate or appropriate number, this starting you consider additional, independent anchors. For
point, whatever it is, will act like a strong gravitational force, example, if assessing the performance for a division,
pulling in our eventual judgment. Our tendency will be to a manager may be presented with last year’s
insufficiently adjust away from the anchor. performance as a benchmark. Industry benchmarks
could also be considered, as this number will likely be
What can be done about the anchoring bias? Once again, independent from prior year performance.
awareness is the first step. Any time a numeric judgment is to
XXIdentify the Anchor. Even when we know about
be made, know that, on average, our tendency will be to stay
anchoring bias, we might fail to recognize that an
irrationally close to the anchor.
anchor is present. Take the typical salary negotiation.
Though not explicitly stated, the anchor in this
negotiation is almost always the current salary. This
may be appropriate, but consider other possible
1 anchors: market rates, peer salaries, average cost
of living, etc. What the anchor is matters, since the
tendency will be to stay too close (either above or
2 below) that anchor. Thus, recognizing the anchor and
its potential influence becomes essential.
The list of biases discussed in this chapter is by no means exhaustive. Researchers have identified literally hundreds of judgment
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biases. However, these four main biases (motivated reasoning, availability, overconfidence, and anchoring) capture four of
the most common, and most problematic, tendencies to which professionals fall prey. Also note that while working in teams
5 can help to mitigate these biases, most of these biases can persist even when working together in a team. This is due, in part, to our
tendency to conform (as per the conformity trap discussed in Chapter 2).
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A knowledge of these biases and of the judgment traps discussed in Chapter 2 is essential. The consistent exercise of sound
professional judgment requires consciously and actively working to avoid these traps and biases.
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 33
CHAPTER 6
Applying the Judgment Framework Judiciously
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34 / PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO
Quadrant III. The point here is that not all judgment situations are created
This quadrant reflects the hundreds of judgments we make on equal and not every judgment needs to be run as carefully
a daily basis, most of which, in and of themselves, relate to through the BDO Professional Judgment Framework. Some
judgment matters that are not particularly critical or complex. judgments are simply more complex or more important
These might include, for example, routine audit judgments for than others. These are the judgment situations that call for
which the matter is narrowly defined, the objectives are few greater investment in ensuring that we have a clear, shared
and clear, and the set of possibilities to resolve the matter is identification of the matter to be resolved, and that we haven’t
constrained or pre-defined. For these relatively simple, less- fallen into one of the traps that can cause us to deviate from
important judgments, we need to take sufficient care that we a good judgment process. In other words, part of defining
accomplish what is needed, but these matters typically do the matter to be resolved (Step 1) is to determine whether
not require a significant investment of our time and energy. A the judgment situation involves a straightforward matter to
cursory review of the BDO Professional Judgment Framework is be resolved, unambiguous objectives, and clearly identified
likely to suffice in the majority of these judgments. In fact, for possibilities for resolution, or whether the judgment situation
some of these cases we can apply a simple golf analogy: “If it’s is complex, ambiguous, or multi-faceted enough that it merits
a two-inch putt, just tap it in.” an investment of time and energy to approach Step 1 carefully
and then to move ahead in applying the full BDO Professional
Quadrant IV. Judgment Framework.
Finally, some relatively rare judgment matters can be
Some of the questions that can be asked to make this
characterized as being of relatively low importance but
determination are:
are nonetheless complex. In these Quadrant IV judgment
situations, we would be likely to focus our attention, for just XXCould the matter be viewed more broadly, or is it a
a few moments, on Steps 1 and 2 of the judgment process to simple matter that is fully captured by a specific,
make sure we are appropriately gauging the importance and narrowly-defined frame?
purpose of the judgment. One of our objectives for a judgment
XXCould we benefit by considering alternative ways to frame
matter that is truly unimportant but complex might be to
the matter?
“not waste too many resources over-thinking this matter.” In
contrast to a simple Quadrant III judgment matter, Quadrant XXHave we approached a matter of this kind before, i.e., is
IV isn’t so much about “tapping it in,” it’s about “tapping it... this a routine judgment?
and moving on.” We again note that Quadrant IV judgment XXIs the matter ambiguous or highly subjective?
matters are relatively rare—less important matters are typically
not highly complex. XXAre there strong incentives or motivations in any
of the parties involved, or are there significant risks
of misstatement?
XXIs the matter complex or ambiguous enough that we might
1
fall prey to unarticulated viewpoints or assumptions?
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PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO / 35
CHAPTER 7
Summary and Conclusion
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36 / PROFESSIONAL JUDGMENT AT BDO
Your engagement team is available to discuss our approach to professional judgment in our delivery of services to you. For general
questions about professional judgment please contact:
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please visit: www.bdo.com.
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