Pakistan and changing regional apparatus

Following dimensions of the topic are to be explored for better appreciation of the answer:
1. Present scenario of international organizations with special reference to Pakistan
2. Status of world politics and world disputes (especially Middle East crisis) and implications on
Pakistan
3. Global alliances at present and impacts on Pakistan
4. Geostrategic position of Pakistan and its importance with reference to neighboring countries and
big powers.
5. Status of relations with neighboring countries, big powers and Muslim world and impacts on
domestic politics and economy.
6. Religious extremism, sectarianism and terrorism with reference to global impacts.
Following are the possible questions that may be asked from the above topics:
1. Cold war allies are no more allies in the era of economic mercantilism?
2. Stability in the region lies in economic integration. Discuss with special reference to South Asia?
3. Changing socio-political and economic outlook is alarming for the region. Critically analyze
4. Peace in Pakistan is myth without regional stability? Discus
5. Regional hegemony is at cross-roads but peace shall prevail longer. Elaborate
6. What would be the future implications of Sino-Pak economic cooperation agreements? Critically
analyze.
7. War on terror has resulted in usual ties between Washington and Islamabad? Discuss
8. Political outlook of Pakistan may result in repeating the history in terms of domestic, economic
and foreign affairs. Elaborate
9. Competition in South China Sea in nothing more than Western quest of dominance in the region?
Critically analyze.

INTRODUCTION
Pakistan is strategically located between the twin forces of competition and collaboration in the
mega-region that embraces Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East, and Caucasus. Central Asia and
South Asia form two contiguous strategic sub-regions of this mega-region. Since the beginning of the
21st century, these two sub-regions have formed the focus of international politics as a result of the
US-NATO war on terror in Afghanistan, the next-door presence of a rising China, a post-cold-war
resurgent Russia, and the hegemonic pretensions of India. US war of terror generally was seen in
reality as the sole superpower usurping the strategic void available in Taliban’s Afghanistan and thus
trying to exude the strategic effects, including containment of China and driving a wedge between
China and Pakistan. Pakistan sits right in the middle of this regional geopolitical dynamics. This
dynamic force influences the complexion of both the foreign policy and the national politics of
Pakistan. The presence of big, middle and small powers in the regional politics both presents
challenges and provides opportunities that create a cauldron of conflicting interests making the
region inherently unstable and vulnerable to manipulation. Since ancient times, the region has been
periodically agitated due to the hegemonic struggles between powers. Regardless of the size and
magnitude of the national power of the countries involved, it is not possible for any country – not
even the big powers like the US, China and Russia – to pursue its policies by acting unilaterally in
the region. This has led to working alliances between small and big powers based on mutual interests
and common vision for the region. Due to the constantly evolving configuration of forces in
existence in the region since the 1950s; China and Pakistan have found it mutually beneficial to work
together for the greater prosperity and peace of the region. This has resulted in a durable bilateral
strategic relationship aimed at the preservation of mutual interests. Like all nation-states, however,
the two countries face challenges intertwined with opportunities that simultaneously strain and
strengthen the bilateral relations. And therefore, the primary challenge that China-Pakistan
cooperation faces in the region is to correctly understand and deal with the destructive and
constructive currents which run across the region. Common understanding of challenges and
opportunities needs to be forged between the two friends in this regard.

The conflicting and differing American and Chinese notions of security are a potential cause of
instability in the region. The actions considered defensive in nature by the Chinese are precisely
those which are thought by the Americans to be aggressive and vice versa (Kissinger 2012). The
different strategic interpretations will keep the possibility of conflict alive. While it will hardly bring
US and China face-to-face and may even paradoxically result in increased cooperation between the
US and China to prevent such a face-off, this difference of world-views can become difficult for their
partners to handle, especially Pakistan.

Related to this is the ever-alive possibility that there may after all be areas where the US AND China,
despite their economic interdependence, may not reach convergence. Given the dynamic nature of
international system, it may not be advisable to pinpoint these areas of non-convergence, but the
principle which will underpin, this non-convergence needs to be spelled out so that the subsequent
identification of areas of non-convergence between the US and China becomes convenient; any
initiative or area developments which will lead to a qualitative leap in Chinese power with the
prospect of outdoing US overall superiority in military and economic power will be a point of non-
convergence of interests and policies between the US and China. If China’s relations with other
nations are the occasion or decisive steps in its gaining the above-mentioned advantage over the US,
then those nations may witness themselves becoming involved in the great-power proxy competition
that may prove detrimental to such nations and the regions where such nations are located.

The nature of Pakistan’s current relationship with both China and the US is very interesting. Unlike
the Cold War and Afghan-Soviet conflict, where Pakistan was clearly allied with the US against the
former Soviet Union, the situation today is markedly different. Today, Pakistan enjoys a broad and
durable friendship with China and a critical but limited, and at times troubled and defiant, alliance in
the war on terror with the US. Even during the Cold War, Pakistan never compromised its strong
relationship with China at any cost nor did it give up pursuing nuclear parity with India.
Occasionally, the interests of Pakistan and USA have clashed in this war and the two have been seen
to work at cross purposes. But this is no reason to believe that the US and Pakistan cannot develop a
greater understanding of their mutual interests in the region. Both China and the US need a strong
relationship with Pakistan to further their goals in the region. Parallel relationships with the US and
China is Pakistan’s biggest challenge and opportunity. Just as nature is said to abhor vacuum, so does
geopolitics discourage parallelism and ambivalence.

China’s President Xi lipping wants to restore the Middle Kingdom to past pre-eminence. Deng
Xiaoping’s caution has been replaced by demands for due deference to Chinese power.

 
CHINA
Pakistan is important for China because the latter’s geo-strategic needs in the region, to an extent, are
reliably provided for by Pakistan. Pakistan is conscious of the fact that China has always displayed a
special concern toward its neighbors. Pakistan, being a vital part of China’s strategic periphery, is, as
always, fully committed to fully support China’s peaceful development policies and prevent
destabilization of Xinjiang from within its borders by Uighur-related militancy. Pakistan also
recognizes that China should be afforded a broad-based mutually beneficial opportunity of
leveraging Pakistan’s geopolitical position to make up for the limitations imposed by its own
geography.

Relationship of China with Pakistan is, therefore, very important because it enables China to both
limit the regional ambitions of India and enhance its standing with India . The purpose is not to
antagonize India but direct the potential force of regional relations to become advantageous for China
and Pakistan. India’s Pakistan obsession and its territorial disputes, reinforced by Indian hegemonic
aspirations, strengthen ties between China and Pakistan so that India’s anti-Pakistan ambitions can be
kept under check. It is important to mention here that the US has not been interested in offering a
credible security to Pakistan in this regard.

The rise of China compels Beijing to influence the regional game to suit the needs of its own
development and security while keeping a light security footprint. The regional strategy, from
China’s viewpoint, consists in creating a synergy of cooperation with the Central Asian Republics
and the surrounding countries. China intends to establish a beneficial network of trade and energy
coupled with a focus on programs for the domestic development of its regional partners.

America, however, is focused on maintaining a situation in which it remains the predominant player
in regional geopolitics in this region. In this regard, it is determined to maintain a military presence in
the area, especially in Afghanistan. It is actively pursuing a “strategic” relationship with India to prop
it up as a regional power player with a view to checking China’s access to the Arabian Sea and the
Persian Gulf via Pakistan. This has also given India a convenient umbrella to pursue its own
traditional hostile agenda against Pakistan. Notwithstanding the alliance with Pakistan in the war on
terror, the US is employing all means, both overt and covert, to pressure Pakistan into supporting its
geo-political agenda in the region and push Pakistan into accepting a subordinate role to India. At the
very least, it seeks to keep Pakistan and Afghanistan in a destabilized and anarchic state to achieve is
geo-political goals.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinto Abe’s economic program is driven by a resolve to rebuild Japan’s
capacity to stand up to Beijing.

Pakistan, in this situation, provides the South Asian buttress to the positive geopolitical networking
of China and Central Asia. It can further contribute to the success of Chinese plans for the
development of Central Asia through its own domestic development and increased trade, transport
and energy links with Western China, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia. Pakistan stands to benefit
and is, therefore, deeply interested in enhancing the overall effect of China’s investments in Central
Asia through the development of its national energy, trade, industrial, and transport corridors leading
to greater multi-faceted regional connectivity of which China will be one of the key beneficiaries. As
a consequence of this development, Pakistan can also benefit from connectivity to Chinese-built rail-
based land bridges linking Chinese cities of Shanghai and Chongqing to European ports like
Rotterdam and Antwerp.

Vladimir Putin, the fourth of Asia’s nationalist horsemen, has shown with his military intervention in
Ukraine Russia’s contempt for cooperative international order.
US
US strategic outlook considers American intervention in the regions surrounding China and Russia as
the most credible guarantee for ensuring stability in the Sino-Russian regional neighbourhood and
believes that “the security of a number of weaker states located geographically next to major regional
powers depends (even in the absence of specific US commitment to some of them) on the
international status quo reinforced by America’s global pre-eminence”. This strategic mind-set is
enough to put at rest any false hopes regarding American intentions to withdraw any time soon from
Afghanistan or from the region at large. The continued presence of US military forces and bases in
Afghanistan is a sure recipe for continued conflict and anarchy in the region which will negatively
impact all plans for peaceful economic development of the region. Such a situation poses the biggest
challenge to China-Pakistan cooperation. However, there is no other viable option but to assiduously
pursue this cooperation, predominantly in the non-military aspects, as a counterweight to American
military presence in the region to be able to create a strong basis for future peace in Afghanistan and
the region. Pakistan, therefore, faces multiple geostrategic challenges in military and non-military
forms. As the most powerful country in the current inter-state system, US shall try to maintain its
global supremacy at all costs. America’s unparalleled economic supremacy in the world will
increasingly come to be challenged by China as it continues its rise, though at present China is far
behind the US. America is already apprehensive of resurgent post-Soviet Russia, and, if past history
is any guide, the potential for competition will be the dominant tendency in US-Russia and Russia-
NATO relations, the veneer of cooperation notwithstanding. This will recreate the old Cold War
dynamics where the US may increasingly view China as a counter-weight against Russia. This will
create favorable conditions for China and Pakistan. However, the benefits of China-Russia-Pakistan
nexus, if it succeeds in developing, will be greater. Nevertheless, America has always perceived
China warily. China’s sustained rapid economic development has driven it to the top of US global
security agenda and has resulted in what has been termed the US pivot to Asia. Perhaps the only
other country that is of an equally high concern to the American security establishment is Russia.

Territorial quarrels with Beijing are– Japan in the East China Sea and India on its northern border.
Both worry about Chinese naval power in the Indian Ocean.

IRAN
The real core of US animosity with Iran is the latter’s courageous stand for its own independently
defined ideals of social and political sovereignty without serving American interests at the expense of
its own welfare. Iran is also projected as the biggest present threat to the security of Israel, which, for
all practical purposes, is an extension of America’s security. Owing to a preponderance of Zionist
influence in American economic and political spheres, the US considers any threat, projected or real,
to Israel as a threat to itself. Pakistan, being the sole Muslim country with operational nuclear
capability, is also considered a potential threat in this regard by the US. Therefore, any Iran-Pakistan
symbiosis is viewed with high discomfort and fear on the Capitol Hill.

AFGHANISTAN
India will continue to undermine any Pakistani effort to mend fences with Afghanistan. It was India
which supported the Northern Alliance (NA), even in the UN, while Taliban ruled over 90% of
Afghanistan. It is instructive to note here that it was India and the Northern Alliance which assisted
the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. It will suppress any Afghan desire to normalize relations
with Pakistan through injections of newly accumulated Indian finance capital and contrived
evocation of the past friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The US war on terror has provided
an opportunity to India to consolidate its position in Kabul due to the domination of the Northern
Alliance there. Regardless of the misguided convergence of Indian and Afghan interests with regard
to Pakistan, India’s ability to influence Afghanistan will prove less effective in the face of a sustained
Pakistani initiative to utilize cultural commonalities, locational complementation, economic
interdependence, and the re-emergence of Taliban as responsible power sharers in a future Afghan
dispensation. The attraction that Afghanistan should feel in a good relationship with Pakistan has
been weakened by factors like the war on terror. Pakistan’s success lies in playing its part for
peaceful Afghanistan and then making it a durable ally of Pakistan which has not historically been
the case. Pakistan should, therefore, seek to befriend the Northern Alliance and thus aim at the
prevention of the accumulation of second-order power in Indian hands over Afghanistan by
strengthening its bilateral relationship with Afghanistan, by revitalizing once-strong Pakistan-Iran
relations and by bringing Afghanistan closer to China.

The mutual advantages of a deeper Pak-Afghan cooperation should be highlighted. Indo-Afghan

relationship, mainly focused on the Northern Alliance, cannot be half as useful to Afghanistan when
the pashtuns, who form almost 50% of the population of Afghanistan, rejoin governance and the
Northern Alliance shrinks to its due size in politics. Also, Pakistan should stress the pros of
geographical contiguity in its dialogue with Afghan leaders. A stable Pak-Afghan relationship can
open its doors for accelerated development of Afghanistan, Central Asia and Pakistan where China’s
involvement in this process of integrated regional development will act as a catalyst . This would
dovetail ideally with China’s own development as well. This will also allow Pakistan to gain access
across the Wakhan Corridor, which separates Pakistan from Tajikistan, for reaching out to Central
Asia and becoming a reliable partner in China’s developmental strategy in the region.

Pakistan should, therefore, expedite socio-economic bridging with Western China and build
complementary bridges into Central Asia both through Afghanistan and Iran to link up with China’s
vision of progress for Central Asia. Troubles in Xinjiang and Muslim-led terrorism will cause serious
friction in the smooth development of China-Pakistan strategic and economic relationship. In fact,
Pakistan fully recognizes that the development of a strong economic relationship with China depends
on the former’s ability to completely defeat militancy, terrorism and foreign-funded secessionist
insurgency in Baluchistan and assist China secure stability in Xinjiang, which is a core Chinese
national interest. Therefore, Pakistan is fully committed to helping China achieve stability in
Xinjiang. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a milestone in this respect.

From ancient Central Asian invaders and Medieval Muslim conquerors to European colonizers, this
resource-rich region has assumed irreversible significance even in the modern era. For instance,
during the Cold War period, the capitalist world under the leadership of the US, and the communist
bloc led by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) sought to win allies in modern South
Asia. Little wonder then, post-partition India, ensconced in the Nehruvian understanding of global
capital and politics, and opted to apparently stay non-aligned.

INDIA
Pakistan needs to take special care of Baluchistan, Sindh and KPK as they may be vulnerable to
external attempts at destabilization. Pakistan’s nuclear capability should deter India from military
invasion aimed at achieving strategic goals. However, Indian Army Chief has been talking about
limited military incursions under nuclear umbrella. This amply proves India’s covert involvement in
spreading anarchy inside Pakistan. Therefore, India is actively pursuing and supporting terrorist and
militant elements and fanning ethnic and sectarian tensions inside Pakistan. It is also actively teaming
up with anti-Pakistan elements within and without in a campaign of vilification of Pakistan and its
important national institutions, especially Pakistan’s military and associated intelligence agencies.
India is pursuing a two-pronged policy consisting of encirclement and of destabilizing the core of
Pakistan’s sovereignty from within. The fact remains that peace in Baluchistan and KPK is not
possible as long as the war on terror continues and instability continues to be fomented by foreign
factors. The real challenge is to counter all such efforts with superior strategy executed with
efficiency and perseverance.

Apart from Kashmir and other unresolved issues, water is another contentious problem between India
and Pakistan. Shortage of water can have adverse socio-economic and geopolitical effects and,
therefore, needs to be addressed with urgency and firmness.

India is misusing its new-found post-9/II role in Afghanistan in two ways. First, its economic
assistance package to Afghanistan, primarily run by the Northern Alliance and Tajiks to the
detriment of the majority of pashtuns, is geared to undermining Pak-Afghan relationship and second,
in Afghanistan, it is using Afghan territory to coordinate destabilization and balkanization activities
inside Pakistan.

Geopolitically, the emphasis of Indian diplomacy is on minimizing pro-Pakistan goodwill among

Pakistan’s neighbors and other countries in the region. India shall continue to further its anti-Pakistan
agenda by entering into extensive economic, defense and cultural agreements with US, EU,
Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asian Republics (CARS) and Russia. India shall continue to provide
maximum possible support to secessionist, separatist, and ethnic movements. As mentioned above, it
is impossible to ignore the Indian hand in the aggravation of the troubles in Baluchistan and in Gilgit-
Baltistan. In this regard, Pakistan can learn from modern Chinese strategic thought which holds that
external causes become operative mainly through internal causes. Pakistan must seek internal
stability by promoting equity-based development in the country through an efficient system of good
governance. Domestic peace and harmony should be one of its top priorities. Pakistan should
simultaneously establish strong regional trade and diplomatic links with countries like Nepal,
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and other Southeast Asian nations in general in the same manner
as India is doing with Pakistan’s neighbors and CARS. India shall invest in all opportunities to score
against Pakistan. Its support for Russia’s project to build a North-South Transport Corridor — the
competitor of Gwadar project – through Iran is an example of it.

Since the Czarist days, Russians looked to Afghanistan for strategic, political and economic
penetration inside South Asia and beyond. Moreover, the modern Indian state viewed Afghanistan as
a potential source to make inroads into Central Asia along with the containment of Pakistan.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization and

Russia
A very interesting passage occurs in Sun Tzu’s, Art of War which says,
“Land that is surrounded on three sides by competitors and would give the first to get it access to all
the people on the continent is called intersecting ground”

(Sun Tzu translated by Thomas Cleary 1988)

The “intersecting ground” refers to the intersection of various national arteries that link together
various highway systems in the region. Central Asia is the “Intersecting ground” of the regional
geopolitics where Chinese efforts will meet Russian attempts to reassert dominance. Improved
relations of China and Pakistan with Russia will mean that the immense energy resources of Russia
will support China’s growth and not be used to undermine the latter’s position in the region.

China-Pakistan-Russia cooperation will find suitable support mechanism in Shanghai Cooperation

Organization (SCO). SCO is significant as the first post-Cold War multilateral platform created
directly as a result of Chinese initiative. It is an example of how China is building asymmetric power
by utilizing concepts, institutions and things innovatively. Russia may be apprehensive of Chinese
pro-active role in SCO, yet enough room exists in that multilateral body to promote China-Russia
synergy. After all, pooling of strengths economically in SCO is more realistic than pursing anti-
NATO ambition like Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

SCO is a manifestation of China’s policy of “Good Neighborliness” which is being used to deliver its
“New Security Concept” succinctly enunciated by China in its “Four Nos” policy namely, “no
hegemony; no power politics; no alliances; and no arms race” and is a means for providing economic
cooperation, trade opportunities, energy transport and meaningful security cooperation. As China
continues to rise economically, its foreign policy has witnessed increased confidence manifested in
the “shift from non-interference to creative involvement; a shift from bilateral to multilateral
diplomacy; a shift from reactive to preventative diplomacy; and a move away from strict
nonalignment toward semi-alliances”. SCO offers an appropriate platform for China’s policy of
furthering semi-alliances or strategic partnerships that avoid the burly posture but deliver the security
of an alliance. China-Pakistan horizontal integration of the region will neutralize the big-power
advantages of countries like Russia, US and India and compel an equal participation in the processes
of regional, social and economic development.

Pakistan gave up its more or less non-partisan position-on the strife in Syria and endorsed the Saudi
demand for setting up a transitional administration with full executive powers in Syria, implying
removal of President Bashar al Assad from power.

TURKEY
Pakistan has traditionally enjoyed a strong relationship with Turkey. This relationship can allow
Pakistan to broaden its geostrategic opportunities and reinforce the already fast-developing China-
Turkey relationship manifested in the construction and diversification of Chinese-conceived Eurasian
Land Bridges that connect China to the vast Eurasian landmass via Turkey. Turkey has a central
geopolitical location allowing it to move in multiple directions. This geopolitical potential of Turkey
should be productively channelled by a strong and mutually advantageous Turkey-Pakistan
relationship that should enable Pakistan both to benefit from these developments and also
compensate for the restrictions resulting from its close relationship with Iran due to fallout of US-
Iran rivalry.
 Conclusion and recommendations
1. Versatile Geopolitical system : It is important to note that Pakistan has a versatile geopolitical
potential which can multiply opportunities for cooperation not only with China but with other important
regional players. However, China-Pakistan cooperation can provide a solid foundation for the diverse
partnerships that Pakistan can and should build to attain strategic sustainability.
2. Geostrategic Games: In response, the threat of Indian aggression, terrorism, religious and
sectarian extremism, domestic and regional destabilization, and other such instruments shall be deployed
by opposing global actors to negatively impinge upon China-Pakistan relationship. India’s past conflicts
with China and Pakistan and ensuing tensions will also be exploited to forestall any movement towards
triangular understanding between these three countries.
3. Regionalism: The formation of a constructive triad between China, Pakistan and India can help
the region tremendously. India, however, will occasionally create contrived military show-downs with
Pakistan just like the recent spate of Indian-initiated violence across the Line of Control early this year.
The challenge for China, Pakistan and India would be to see if they can transcend history.
4. Bilateral Talks: Open bilateral talks now with all Afghan ethno-political groups for building a
broad-based relationship with Afghanistan in the post-US/NATO drawdown phase. This should be carried
out as complementary efforts to build peace and stability in Afghanistan and restore normalcy in the
region. Historical Pak-Afghan relationship should be made a basis for such an initiative. This requires a
separate bilateral effort in parallel to international efforts.
5. Diplomacy: Resume front-channel track-one talks with India on all issues including Kashmir and
water resources. Open a diplomatic initiative with all regional countries (Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, CARs,
Turkey, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, etc.) for taking them into confidence regarding the proposed
Pak-Afghan bilateral talks and keeping them updated on it.
6. Diffuse sectarian rifts: Pursue an energetic diplomatic initiative to co-opt Saudi Arabia and Iran
into efforts to diffuse tensions and prevent the exacerbation of the already dangerous sectarian strife,
including the Shia-Sunni schism, within the Muslim countries. Pakistan is the worst affected in this regard
and needs to focus its energies in this direction.
7. Strengthen relations with EU: Strengthen diplomatic relations with EU countries to
complement relations with the US.
8. Revival of relations with Russia: Open a focused diplomatic initiative with Russia with a view
to getting over the past and enabling the development of positive relationship between Russia and
Pakistan leading to a wider regional cooperation.