New World of Work: Preparing College Students to be Competitive in AGENCY: New Mexico State

Rapidly Changing Industries University, Dan Arvizu,

Chancellor; Enrico Pontelli,
Over the past two decades, the world’s industries have been disrupted by a digital Dean, College of Arts &
transformation, impacting communities throughout the world. A 2013 United Sciences; Monica Torres,
Nation’s Report commented that more people in the world have access to a cellular DACC President
phone than to basic sanitation, highlighting the leap in gains from technology. In
fact, the ubiquity of mobile phones and their application to people’s daily functions DATE: May 20, 2021
has spawned a new level of economic transformation based on the complement of
technology to human performance. PURPOSE OF HEARING:
Hear from NMSU System
Thought leaders, when discussing the future of work, often mention that today’s Chancellor on strategic
elementary students will be employed in jobs that industry today cannot even begin direction to increase
to describe. These students will be faced with rapid and continual economic enrollment and graduates.
transformation, impacting the workforce and requiring workers to be highly
adaptable to learning new skills quickly. One of the most valuable assets of any PREPARED BY: Mark
economy or company is its human capital–the skills, capabilities and innovation of Valenzuela, LFC Principal
its citizens. Identifying existing skills that are in decline or no longer required by Analyst
industry has been the focus of much academic and private sector research. Deloitte,
in its Deloitte Insights: 2018 Study on Skills Gaps and Future of Work, reported a
widening skills gap, noting that more than 50 percent of manufacturing jobs would
go unfilled because shifting skills requirements from advancements in technology.

These changes will impact the future of jobs, exposing the gap between skilled and
non-skilled employees. The result of this rapidly changing workforce landscape
will be higher productivity and job displacement for ill-prepared workers. The Example: Top five skills
challenges facing labor markets today are significant and aptly suited to higher required by employers in
education institutions for finding solutions. Colleges and universities can be at the manufacturing
center of solving the misalignment of required workforce skills with the skills
learned in formal educational settings. 1. Computer/technology
awareness and mastery.
Higher education institutions will be called on to define and create effective 2. Digital competency and
systems for imparting skills and capabilities in line with emerging skills demand. operation of highly
The approaches to developing solutions will be vastly different on research automated equipment.
university campuses, or regional comprehensive universities compared with two- 3. Programming
year community colleges who are focused on vocational careers or as an entry
languages/skills for robotic
point for students to transfer into the four-year sector. To realize the value of such
systems and assembly
investments, colleges and universities will need to accompany such efforts with
automation.
investments with private sector institutions.
4. Maintenance or repair of
New Mexico State University and its system of branch campuses throughout the highly complex systems or
state have begun to reexamine the role of higher education in meeting the needs of physical equipment.
the local, regional and national workforce, and in particular, helping students 5. Critical thinking and
develop skills that are competitive. NMSU, having undergone a financial analysis.
transformation resulting from declining revenue and student enrollment, has begun
Source: Deloitte Insights, 2018
to position strategically to capture a greater level of student enrollment. Equally
important, the university has been matching its capital investments, with generous
support from the Legislature, to build educational platforms for students that are
industry relevant.

LFC Hearing Brief | New World of Work | May 20, 2021 1

 Performance in Recruitment, Retention and Completion
Headcount Enrollment:
NMSU System
Enrollment. College enrollment has declined precipitously for several years in
2020 New Mexico, as previously identified in the 2017 LFC program evaluation Higher
Education Cost Drivers and Cost-Savings. College enrollment is a leading
2019 indicator for statewide goals of educational attainment and workforce sufficiency.

2018 The NMSU system has experienced declines in student enrollment across the
board, however the impacts have been less severe at the NMSU main campus than
2017 what the branch campuses have experienced. Over the past five years, NMSU
Main campus declined by 4 percent, outperforming its peers in New Mexico. The
2016 branch campuses on the other hand declined in total enrollment more than peers.
For instance, NMSU Alamogordo’s total enrollment has decreased from 1,400
2015 students to fewer than 800 students, or 48 percent decline. NMSU Carlsbad and
Grants have both declined by 26 percent.
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
NMSU Main Student Retention at NMSU. Generally, at four-year universities, an average 35
NMSU - Alamogordo percent of first-time university students leave after the first year. Universities do
NMSU - Carlsbad
NMSU - Dona Ana not maintain data to describe the reasons students leave; some students transfer to
NMSU - Grants a different institution, some students leave for financial reasons, and some leave
Source: HED Enrollment for academic reasons. Of the 65 percent of students who persist through their first
Reports
year, 42 percent, on average, graduate within 6 years.

New Mexico universities lag regional peers at retaining students, which impacts
Retention Rate: NMSU
college enrollments and tuition revenue. The cost to the student is tremendous; the
Main Campus
student population with the highest default rates on student loans has balances
100% under $5,000. The cost to the state is equally detrimental, impacting the state’s
90% ability to reach a more educated population and to meet workforce demands.
80%
70% At NMSU for the past two years, student retention has been steadily improving.
60% NMSU’s Aggie Pathway, a model designed to help students better prepare for the
50% rigors of a research university by starting at a NMSU branch campus, may be an
40% effective tactic to support students. NMSU, unlike its peers, publishes data on each
30%
of its starting freshman cohorts, tracking annual student retention through
20%
graduation. The data is useful as a leading indicator to graduation rates and student
completion. Importantly, 2-year and 3-year retention are increasing at NMSU main
10%
campus, which indicates the research university is driving students to higher levels
0%
of completion.

First-year retention rates at the NMSU branch campuses are improving. Similar to
1 year 2 year
enrollment, keeping students on campus earning degrees improves the financial
3 year 4 year position of colleges. In New Mexico, third-semester student retention data appear
to show students return after the first year at levels consistent with surrounding
states, but drastically drop out after that point.

Retention rates for first-time, full-time Fall 2016 to Fall 2017 to Fall 2018 to Fall 2019 to
degree-seeking students to the second Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020
semester Actual Actual Actual Actual

NMSU - Alamogordo 48% 52% 54.6% 52%

NMSU - Carlsbad 48.6% 49.7% 50% 64%
NMSU - Dona Ana CC 59.2% 59.1% 62.7% 65%
NMSU - Grants 43.5% 52.5% 53.7% 60%

2 LFC Hearing Brief | New World of Work | May 20, 2021

Graduation Rates at NMSU. Statewide, colleges and universities – with the
exception of branch campuses, which underperformed targets – are exceeding their Graduation Rate: NMSU
own institutional performance targets for students graduating within three years Main Campus
(for associate’s degrees and certificates) or six years (for bachelor’s degrees). New 100%
Mexico still falls far behind the average graduation rates of peer institutions in 90%
80%
surrounding states. However, the targets remain very low and if unchanged, will
70%
not help the state meet its workforces needs. 60%
50%
Important successes are happening throughout the system; NMSU increased its 40%
graduation rate from 45 percent to 52 percent, significant given the enrollment 30%
20%
challenges. Like the University of New Mexico, the four-year graduation rate at 10%
NMSU has almost doubled in the past five years. The momentum is needed, 0%
particularly because the research universities trail their peers in other states.

New Mexico’s 24 state-funded colleges and universities will need to adapt in two 4 year 5 year
key ways. First, the state’s colleges and universities will need to become more 6 year 10-year
streamlined and collaborative in the use of finite resources for instruction,
administration, and capital outlay. Second, the state’s colleges and universities will
need to aggressively improve their recruitment and retention of resident and out-
of-state students.

Top Ten Academic Programs

On average, the New Mexico State University system (main campus and branches)
produces 22 percent of total awards funded in the higher education funding
formula. The NMSU system comprises 22 percent of total enrollment at public
colleges and universities in the state. The NMSU system produces a high
percentage of its awards, more than 65 percent, in the Tier 1 classification for the
higher education funding formula, which is in line with the UNM systems’
outcomes.

The tables below provide a historical view on the types of degrees awarded over
the past ten years. Comparing FY11 to FY20, two degree types have declined
substantially: certificates by 44.6 percent and master’s degrees by 32.7 percent.
That certificates have declined within the NMSU system when compared with
statewide growth, 42 percent in past five years, shows NMSU branch campuses,
through the Aggie Pathway program, appear to be transferring students to four-
year institutions. The outsized growth in certificate programs in New Mexico
appears to be occurring at independent community colleges.

The data validate the value of the Aggie Pathway program in helping students
begin at a two-year branch campus, and after earning an associate degree,
transferring to the main campus. At each of the branch campuses, the highest
number of associate degrees awarded are aligned with the top producing bachelor
degree programs at the main campus: criminal justice, healthcare fields, business
administration, and general education core liberal arts degrees.

Bachelor’s degrees, during the same time period, have declined by 5.5 percent, but
fluctuated up and down during the past decade. On average, New Mexico State
University graduates more than 2,400 bachelor’s degree candidates every year.
The top ten academic bachelor’s degree programs produce 40 percent of the
graduates, or 1,025, and the bottom 35 programs only produce 6 percent, or 164
graduates. At its main campus, NMSU has 35 academic programs, or 37 percent,
that graduate 10 or fewer graduates every year, reflecting 164 graduates.

LFC Hearing Brief | New World of Work | May 20, 2021 3

 Despite substantial state investments in teacher preparation scholarships, the
number of teacher candidates has declined over the past five years. Including
graduates of kinesiology, the College of Education at NMSU has graduated just
more than 800 teachers in total in five years. However, important trends have
materialized where elementary education decreased from 64 graduates in 2015 to
28 in 2020. Secondary education and special education teacher graduates have also
declined.

4 LFC Hearing Brief | New World of Work | May 20, 2021

 NMSU Awards by Funding-Formula Tier: FY11 to FY20
Main Alamogordo Carlsbad Dona Ana Grants
Award Level Campus Branch Branch Branch Branch Total Awards
Tier 1 22,106 1,310 845 8,222 636 74,893
Tier 2 6,015 145 127 1,537 98 19,372
Tier 3 5,164 285 239 2,439 200 18,207
33,285 1,740 1,211 12,198 934 112,472

New Mexico State University System (Main Campus and Branches)

Total Awards by Type
Award Category FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Certificates, Less than a Year 9 5 7 21 24 27 24 20 37 119
Certificates, One-to-Two Years 529 371 300 257 249 307 238 273 233 293
Certificates, Two-to-Four Years - - - - - - - - - -
Associate Degree 1,237 1,341 1,399 1,354 1,303 1,436 1,240 1,252 1,141 1,187
1,775 1,717 1,706 1,632 1,576 1,770 1,502 1,545 1,411 1,599
Bachelor's Degree 2,365 2,335 2,429 2,552 2,436 2,548 2,406 2,320 2,313 2,236
Master's Degree 972 868 791 800 786 737 708 689 683 654
Doctorate 106 102 132 114 131 120 111 138 134 126
Graduate Certificates 26 22 20 28 31 25 33 36 41 38
3,469 3,327 3,372 3,494 3,384 3,430 3,258 3,183 3,171 3,054
Total Awards 5,244 5,044 5,078 5,126 4,960 5,200 4,760 4,728 4,582 4,653
Source: HED Funding Formula Raw Data

NMSU: Top Ten Bachelor's Degree Candidates by Academic Program

Academic Program 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1 Criminal justice 178 222 170 150 156 152
2 Individualized studies 142 139 156 141 153 127
3 Nursing 129 118 179 154 106 139
4 Mechanical Engineering 67 74 126 109 109 109
5 Psychology 107 108 92 87 92 89
6 Business: Marketing 88 93 87 96 92 79
7 General Business 80 66 73 79 94 91
8 Biology 75 77 79 75 73 81
9 Business: Management 67 84 93 69 49 55
10 Foreign languages 61 74 71 64 52 54
Total Graduates (Bachelor's) 994 1,055 1,126 1,024 976 976
Annual Increase 61 71 (102) (48) 0
Annual Percentage Increase 6.1% 6.7% -9.1% -4.7% 0.0%
Source: NMSU Office of Institutional Analytics

NMSU College of Education: Graduates by Discipline

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Music education 12 9 6 12 11 17
Early childhood education 17 28 26 13 23 16
Elementary education 64 58 41 45 30 28
Kinesiology 57 70 52 63 68 57
Secondary Education 26 25 21 15 13 14
Special education 12 16 12 7 2 4
Total Graduates (bachelor's degree) 188 206 158 155 147 136
Annual increase 18 (48) (3) (8) (11)
Annual percentage increase 9.6% -23.3% -1.9% -5.2% -7.5%

LFC Hearing Brief | New World of Work | May 20, 2021 5