Trajectory Detection
Trajectory Detection
point
value and predicted
value
A. Model Establishment
The test data is time-varying data. The data element may Is the difference yes
be time series of the target's speed, acceleration or gray greater than
the threshold?
value of the video image, imaging size, and the like. A data
sequence is an ordered collection of elements consisting of
test values and time, and is written as Equation (1). mark as an ordinary point
D=
n d=
1 ( v1 , t1 ) , d=2 ( v2 , t2 ) , ⋅⋅⋅, d=n ( vn , tn ) (1) replace the nearest neighbor window of
the predetermined point value, with the
measured value to participate in the next
test
In which d i = (vi , ti ) represents the corresponding test Fig. 1. Flow of Feature Detection Algorithm Based on Sliding Window
value vi at the time ti , and the recording time is strictly
increased C. Sliding window design
(k )
η i ( k ) = {d i − 2 k , d i − 2 k +1 , , d i −1 } represents the k Define the sliding neighbor node window η i for the
nearest-neighbor window of the point d i ,and the set of test point d i to be detected in the feature sequence D . In order n
predict the observation value vi ' of the point d i ; calculate Where 2k is the length of the sliding window of the
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node d i , from {i − 2k } to {i − 1}. the confidence threshold τ and the confidence interval
PCI can be calculated as Equation (5).
D. Prediction Model Establishment
The core of the feature change detection algorithm is to = t a / 2, 2 k −1 × s 1 + 1 /(2k ) , PCI = v τ +1 ± τ (5)
establish a predictive model and use the sliding window
t
η i (k ) as an input parameter to predict the test values of
Where, v t +1 is the predicted value of the prediction
subsequent nodes. The predictive model predicts
observations at a future observation point in the time series model calculated according to the sliding adjacent window
through a set of specific input values—the sliding of the point to be tested; t a / 2, 2 k −1 is the percentile with the
(k )
window η i . The predictive model can reduce the number degree of freedom 2k − 1 ; s is the standard deviation of the
that cannot be predicted due to insufficient data. model residual; k is the size of the sliding window. If the
actual measured value falls within the confidence interval of
Using the sliding window η i = {d1 , d 2 , , di} as the
(k )
the prediction value, the undetermined point is marked as a
input parameter of the feature sequence prediction model to normal point; otherwise, it is marked as a characteristic
change point and the point is further analyzed and processed.
predict the observed value d i +1 , the budget method can be the threshold PCI for determining whether a node is a
expressed as Equation (3). feature change point can adjust the width of the window
effectively, so as to avoid false detection probability events
(k ) caused by threshold selection.
d i +1 = M (η i ) (3)
F. Preferences
(k )
Among them M (η i ) is the prediction model. The In order to detect the feature change point in the test
premise of this algorithm is that the test value at the moment sequence, the feature point prediction method based on the
sliding neighbor window needs to calculate a reasonable
k + 1 can be described by k finite precursor measurement threshold τ of the test point. In order to improve the
value, that is, its implicit assumption feature sequence is a k efficiency of the detection method and improve the
Markov process. By comparing the detection efficiency of performance of the algorithm, a reasonable choice of the
the simple change model, the nearest-neighbor prediction
model, the single-layer linear network prediction model and two parameters k and p involved in the algorithm is the
the multi-layer perceptual prediction model on different data key to improving the anomaly detection algorithm.
sets, the single-layer linear network prediction model can Therefore, use the following method to select the
obtain the best detection efficiency. A single-layer linear appropriate parameter value.
network is used as the prediction model, and the
observations at the moment t are assumed to be linear a) The width of the window k . k determines the
combinations of their advancing neighboring windows, number of sliding abutment points participating in the
shown in Equation (4). prediction. The larger the value is, the more sliding
abutment points are involved in the calculation and the
computational complexity increases accordingly. To select
2k 2k the optimal sliding window width, the value k range is 3-15,
v = (∑ ( wt −i vt −i )) /(∑ wt −i ) (4) the increment is 1, that is k = {3,
4, 15} .
,
i =1 i =1
b) Confidence coefficient p . p defines the expected
Where wt − 2 k , wt − 2 k +1 , , wt −1 represents the frequency of the measured value within the confidence
neighboring window node weight vector, the closer the interval of the value. The greater the confidence coefficient,
distance between the nodes, the greater the weight. To the larger the confidence interval of the prediction value,
simplify the calculation, the weight vector and the range p of the value is 80% to 100% in increments
〈 wt − 2 k , wt − 2 k +1 , , wt −1 〉 is generally assigned to of 2%. which is p = {80%, 82%, , 100%}.
〈1, 2, , 2k 〉 . The goal of feature detection is to detect as many feature
points as possible in the sequence and reduce the probability
E. Feature Point Determination of false detections. Therefore, the criterion of the parameter
The adjacent window of the point to be detected is used pair ( k , p ) is to maximize the ratio between the detection
as an input parameter, and the predicted value of the point to accuracy and the false detection rate.
be tested and the confidence interval based on the predicted
value are calculated according to the prediction model. The IV. SIMULATION VERIFICATION
prediction confidence interval gives a possible range of
values for the observation to be detected. The confidence A. Simulation Example 1
factor p = 100(1 − α ) indicates the expected frequency of
In order to verify the correctness of the above algorithm,
the actual measurement within the confidence interval of the missile simulation data is generated for detection, and
value. If it is assumed that the model residuals have a zero- simulation data is graphically displayed. The speed curve is
mean Gaussian distribution, the confidence level p % with shown in Fig. 2, where the vertical axis is the speed and the
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horizontal axis is the flight time. From the curve, the missile TABLE I. SIMULATION OF BALLISTIC DATA FOR A CERTAIN TYPE OF
BOTTOM BOMB
flight is stable. Use the model and method established in the
previous section to test and verify the characteristics of the Distance Azimuth Elevation
Radial velocity Acceleration
missile's flight-the engine off point. According to the missile value value
trajectory, when the engine stalls, the missile acceleration 16437.3 357.734 20.2282 449.13 -10.5
becomes zero and the speed reaches a maximum. The curve 16446.7 357.737 20.2208 448.92 -9.5
reflects this trend. At 172 frames corresponding to time
16455.5 357.74 20.2135 448.73 -9.5
6.76s, the missile speed reaches a maximum 242m/s.
16464.3 357.742 20.2061 448.54 -10
From the simulation results, the characteristic data points
16473.6 357.745 20.1987 448.34 -10
are easily deviated from their neighbor nodes, namely
"feature change points." Fig. 3 shows the test results. 16482.4 357.748 20.1912 448.14 -10
16491.8 357.751 20.1839 447.94 -10
Fig. 3 shows the simulation data, prediction values and
confidence interval in the given speed series data set under 16500.6 357.753 20.1764 447.74 -11
the condition of the sliding window width k = 6, the 16509.4 357.756 20.169 447.52 -10.5
confidence p = 95%. From Fig. 3, it can be seen that most of 16518.2 357.759 20.1615 447.31 -11.5
the ballistic data are very close to the predicted value. The
16527.5 357.762 20.1541 447.08 -11.5
actual value of the feature point exceeds the confidence
interval, which is not the same as the predicted value, is 16535.7 357.764 20.1465 446.85 -11.5
detected. The detected engine flameout time is 6.75s, with 16544.5 357.767 20.1391 446.62 -12
the corresponding speed 241.6m/s, which 6.76s and 242m/s
600
in theory. The small errors of the data indicate that this
method can detect the mutation feature points. 500
400
B. Simulation Example 2
300
Compared with the detection of the characteristics of the
misfire point of a missile engine, the characteristics of the 200
flameout point of the bottom bomb are much fainter. This
100
simulates a certain type of bottom trajectory data. Table 1 is
a partial data list. The extinguishing point time of the 0
simulation data is approximately 27.7s.
111
133
155
177
199
221
243
265
287
309
331
353
375
397
419
441
463
485
507
529
1
23
45
67
89
In order to observe the trend more clearly, the data is Fig. 4. Speed simulation curve of a certain bottom bombing zone
plotted in the form of a curve, as shown in Fig. 4 and 5 . It is
very difficult to observe and detect the extinguishing point
only from the speed of the projectile. The speed curve is
very smooth and is a typical “smooth process”. The marked
part in Fig. 4 is the extinguishing process. This can also be
seen from data list 1.
300
250
200
150
feature point
confidence
acceleration prediction value
interval
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In order to show the characteristic change of V. CONCLUSION
extinguishing point, the speed data is differentiated to get Aiming at the difficulty of the small change of speed
the acceleration of the projectile, as shown in Fig. 5. The after flameout, the traditional method of identifying the
acceleration of the extinguishing process is mainly analyzed. extinguishing point, the faint change of the video image, this
Acceleration data obtained by directly differentiating the paper studies the sequence feature change detection
speed contains many high-frequency random error technology based on the sliding window and establishes the
components, and the maximum error value reaches 6m/s. sequence feature change detection model, clear detection
This data sequence is not conducive to the detection using parameters and criteria. Combined with simulation test
the “faint feature detection” method established in this paper. data for verification calculations, it shows that this method
so the data sequence is preprocessed. Using multi-point can indeed effectively detect changes in the data sequence
smoothing to eliminate the influence of high-frequency and identify changes in the faint characteristics of the
random errors brought about by the differential, 3, 5, and 10 process. This method is feasible in the detection of flameout
points are used to smooth the acceleration data sequence. By features.
comparison, the 10-point smoothing has the most obvious
suppression effect on random errors and can reach 0.3m/s.
The 5-point smoothing can reach 0.5m/s, and the 3-point REFERENCES
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