A Project

Report On
STUDY OF SAFETY AT ROADS
Submitted by

VIVEK RAJ
Roll No-16CE8014

In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree in

Bachelor of Technology in Civil Engineering

Under the guidance of

Dr. SOMNATH
KARMAKAR

1
Department of Civil Engineering National
Institute of Technology Durgapur june,
2020
 CERTIFICATE

It is certified that the work contained in the thesis entitled “Study of safety at roads ” submitted by Vivek
Raj(16CE8014 has been carried out under my supervision and guidance this work has not been submitted
elsewhere for a degree.

UNDER THE SUPERVISON OF

Somnath Karmakar
Assistant
Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
NIT Durgapur
 A CKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to thank NIT Durgapur for giving me the opportunity to

use their resources and work in such a challenging environment.
First and foremost I take this opportunity to express my deepest
sense of gratitude to my guide Prof. S.Karmakar for his able guidance
during my project work. This project would not have been possible
without his help and the valuable time that he has given me amidst his
busy schedule.
I would also like to extend my gratitude to Prof. A.K.Samanta,
Head, Department of Civil Engineering for his constant encouragement,
support and valuable tips throughout my work.
Last but not the least I would like to thank all my friends who have been
very cooperative with me and have helped me in completing my project.

VIVEK RAJ

DATE 10.06.2020 16CE8014

Department of Civil Engineering,

NIT,Durgapur
 A BSTRACT

Safety is generally divided into two categories i.e. safety at public places and

safety at roads.Safety at public places are further subdivided into safety at Hall e.g.

Shopping mall, Movie Theatre.Public place can vary through the course of the day

which can be used by different groups of people at different times. It may be

busy at certain times and sometimes not busy and those differences can have

a very different impact on the wa y you feel when you are in them. So a good

planning from an early stage will help to run every event safely. In this model I

have studied how the time of evacuation from a hall gets affected due to the

width of the door.Road safety refers to measures and methods for reducing the

risk of a person using the road network being killed or seriously injured. In this

model I have studied how road accident gets affected due to road factors.

Road factors generally refers to the Geometric features of the road(Horizontal

radius,Vertical curve and superelevation), and the manmade features.Manmade

features refers to the features made by man (Roadway obstacles,Adjacent

structurs which are present very nearer to the road and the posters present

along the road)

To demonstrate the developed model by regression, empirical data is used.

 DESCRIPTION PAGE
Certificate………………………………………………………………………. 2
Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………… 3
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………. 4

Introduction…………………………………………………………………….. 8

Safety at road……………………………………………………………………… 9
Geometric features…………………………………………………………………10
Horizontal curve……………………………………………………………………11
Vertical curve…………………………………………………………………… 11
Superelevation……………………………………………………………………. 12
Manmade Features…………………………………………………………………13

Literature Review……………………………………………………………… 14-20

Road Geometry………………………………………………………………………………… 21-23

Graph between Rate of accident vs year……………………………………………………….. 24
Graph between Rate of accident vs Horizontal curve………………………………………… 25
Graph between Rate of accident vs Vertical grade……………………………………………. 25
Graph between Rate of accident vs Superelevation……………………………………………...26
Accident data of SH 2 and Regression Model…………………………………………………. 27
Data of year and total no. of accidents on SH2……………………………………………… 29
Graph between total no. of accidents along the stretch vs year………………………………. 30
Calculation of accident/year/km and frequency……………………………………………. 30-31
Calculation of total no. of manmade features on SH 2………………………………………… 31
Regression Model………………………………………………………………………………….. 32

Conclusions and discussions……………………………………………………………35

References…………………………………………………………………………. 36-37
 L IST OF FIGURE

Figure 1: Calculation of Horizontal Curve

Figure 2: Calculation of Vertical grade and super elevation

Figure 3: Study Area SH-2 ARAMBAGH TARAKESWAR ROAD

 LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Evacuation time for different conditions

Table 2: Graph between Rate of accident vs year
Table 3: Graph between Rate of accident vs Horizontal curve
Table 4: Graph between Rate of accident vs Vertical grade
Table 5: Graph between Rate of accident vs Superelevation
Table 6: Accident data of SH2
Table 7:Calculation of total no. of accident per each year
Table 8: calculation of Accident /year/km and Frequency
Table 9: Calculation of total no. of manmade features along SH 2
CHAPTER-1
INTRODUCTION
 1. Accident at road causes mainly due to 2 factors i.e. human factor and road factor.

Human
Factor(Driver)

e.g.- aggressive, conservative nature, illness, addiction, physical problems like

colour blindness, night blindness.Could not collect data on human psychology, so in
this study work on this area is not done.

The application of ergonomics theories for optimal cycling safety depends on the context.
While a complete overview of applications is outside the scope of this text, this paper gives
some examples to show the value of human factor theories for cycling safety.

Theories on perception help understand to what extent road users are able to perceive
objects and where the road is going.For example, ambient-focal dichotomy is a powerful
theory which For example, ambient-focal dichotomy is a powerful theory which describes
vision and driving in terms of the visual system as being two parallal streams of processing,
labelled the ambient and focal subsystems.
(Leibowitz and Owens, 1977; Schieber et al., 2008).

Road Factor

A. . Road geometry
Horizontal curve

Vertical curve

Superelevation

B. Manmade features

How a driver reacts to the action of other drivers

2(A)Road geometry

• Horizontal Curves

A horizontal highway curve is a plan to provide a change in direction in the

centerlene of the road.When a vehicle goes along a horizontal curve,a force called
as centrifugal force acts horizontally outwards through out the centre of gravity
of the vehicle.More the horizontal curve,lesser will be the chances of accidents.
Accidents on horizontal curves are a cause for concern in all countries, whatever the
level of development of their road system. A recent study has found that in Denmark,
about 20% of all personal injury accidents and 13% of all fatal accidents occur on
curves in rural areas; and in France, over 20% of fatal accidents occur on dangerous
curves in rural areas (Herrstedt and Greibe, 2001). Accidents on bends are
undoubtedly a major problem in many developing countries, although the proportion
of such accidents is dependent upon both the topography and demography of each
country.
Accidents on horizontal curves tend to be of two main types: ‘Running off
the road and hitting an object’ and ‘Lost control and Rolled over’. There can also
be a significant number of Head On and Sideswipe accidents at higher traffic
volumes. The apparent cause of these accidents is usually the driver entering the
bend at too high a speed; and the reason for this can be because the driver was
wilfully travelling at a high speed, was paying insufficient attention or because he
misjudged the severity of the bend. Such misjudgements can be caused because
of the bend’s visual configuration, poor delineation or because it was unexpectedly
sharp after a series of gentle curves or after a long straight (tangent) section. Another
major problem can occur when drivers sometimes ignore the ‘no-overtaking’
enforcement. When travelling around bends, the higher forces put on the road
surface by the side thrust of the tyre frequently cause the surface aggregate on
bends to polish more quickly than the rest of the road, thus aggravating the problem
of safety. There can also be underlying problems in the geometric design of the
curve because the basic assumptions are not applicable to the design (e.g. a high
proportion of drivers exceed the design speed). On gravel roads in particular, the loss
of super-elevation in the cross-sectional profile through lack of maintenance may
result in the effects of a horizontal curve being more severe than as designed.

• Vertical Curve

A parabolic curve that is applied to make a smooth and safe transition

between two grades on a roadway or a highway.
Vertical curves are generally applied
At an intersection of two slopes on a highway or a roadway
To provide a safe and comfort ride for vehicles on a roadway.

There are three main effects of vertical road alignments, which are closely associated
with the occurrences of traffic accidents. These are excessive speeds and out-of-
control vehicles on down grades, differential speed between vehicles created on both
down and up grades, and low range of visibility that often occurs in the immediate
vicinity of steep grades at the crest of vertical curves. It may be difficult for driver to
appreciate the sight distance available on crust curve and he may overtake when it
is insufficient for him to do so safely. This can be extremely expensive to provide safe
overtaking sight distances on crust curves. However, a complete ban on overtaking
would be difficult to enforce because of the presence of very slow moving
vehicles, the lack of driver discipline in selecting places, poor maintenance of road
marking and signs. Successive short vertical curves on straight section of road
may produce misleading forward visibility. Berehanu summarized the effects of
vertical curve in such a way that steep grades have higher accident rates than
mild ones. He extends that grades of less than 6 per cent have little effect, but
grades steeper than this are associated with higher accident rates. Down grades are
greater problems, particularly for truck safety than upgrades. A combination of
horizontal curve under 450m and grades more than 4 per cent are not recommended.
Weak conditions of the horizontal and vertical alignments of a road can result in
visual effects, which can cause accidents and are detrimental to the appearance of
the road.

• Superelevation

Superelevation is the rotation of the pavement on the approach to and

through a horizontal radius. Superelevation is made to assist the driver by
counteracting the lateral acceleration produced by moving across the curve.
Superelevation is expressed as a decimal point, representing the ratio of the
pavement slope to width, varying from 0 to 0.12 foot/feet. The adopted criteria allow
for the use of maximum superelevation rates from a range of 0.04 to 0.12. Maximum
superelevation rates for design are established by policy by each State.

Selection of a maximum superelevation rate is based on several variables,

such as terrain, weather, highway location (urban vs. rural), and frequency of
very slow-moving vehicles. e.g, northern States that experience ice and snow
conditions may establish maximums for superelevation than States that do not
experience these conditions. Use of lower maximum value of superelevation rates
by policy is made to address the perceived problem created by vehicles sliding
transversely when traveling at very low speeds when weather conditions are poor.
2(B)Manmade Features

* I have studied here how a driver gets disturbed due to the presence of some
unwanted things on the road/vicinity of the road.
* The term “manmade features” mainly refers to any object on the side of the road
that, by virtue of its placement and structure, results in or is likely to
cause, a maximum probability of vehicular damage, occupant injury or fatality.
* In my case I have considered three features such as roadway obstacles,
obstacles very near to road and posters though it will not cause obstruction, but it
can affect human’s mind).
* Our main aim is to consider these factors and analyze it using some video data
and and then analyzed it through regression.

Formwork of road safety including risk and exposure.

Regression model

A regression model is to be fitted for all the 3 experiments I have done.

10
 CHAPTER-2

Literature Review
1. Introduction

Objectives of the study

This literature review addresses the question of how
effective traffic education is, and which features characterize
'good' programmes. In this report, questions are answered
on the characteristics of 'good' evaluation studies, the
inherent complexity of the research field, and the lessons to
be learned. To place the findings into perspective,
comparisons will be made with other fields in which
education is used as a preventive measure, such as the field
of public health. These comparisons allow us to answer the
question to what extent the observed patterns are only
typical for road safety, or whether the patterns are related to
more general issues in 'the effectiveness of education as a
preventive measure'.
The review has been conducted as part of the EVEO, Study
of the Effects of Education, project in which a large number of
educational programmes will be evaluated. Within this project,
the purpose of the review is to assess essential features of
evaluation designs in traffic education, the effect criterion to
 be used and the characteristics of potentially effective
programmes.

Background
In spite of the significant improvements in road safety
achieved in the last 25 years, the current number of deaths
and injuries (and associated social and economic costs) is still
unacceptably high. Only in the year 2000, , over 40 000 were
killed and more than 1.7 million people injured in road crashes
in the EU(European Umion). Having in mind the magnitude of
these numbers, the European Commission has set as a
safety goal to reduce the number of road deaths by half in the
period 2001-2010 (European Commission, 2001).
Road safety measures, aimed at achieving this safety goal by
preventing traffic crashes and reducing their severity, are
traditionally referred as the three E's: Enforcement measures,
Engineering measures and Education measures. From the
experiences of the best performing countries, it has becomes
evident that for road users in general, and for children in
particular, a holistic approach is needed in which the three E's
are combined (OECD, 2004).

However, with respect to the effectiveness of road safety

education relatively little is known, whereas the effects of
police enforcement and infrastructural measures are well
documented (Goldenbeld, 2004; Ogden, 1996).
This despite the fact that it has convincingly been
demonstrated that education is needed for the successful
performing of even simple activities like walking, writing, or
using the toilet. In contrast, safe participation in traffic is a
complex task requiring skills like rule application, speed
estimation and prediction, and it is self evident that
extensive practice is needed to acquire these skills
(Rothengatter, 1981). In addition, crash statistics show that
the adoption of any new traffic role leads to subsequent
increase in crash rates (Vlakveld, 2004), indicating a poor
performance of novices. Although the role of traffic
education is not necessarily under discussion, the
knowledge about the effectiveness and the characteristics of
`good` programmes is still insufficient. Moreover, the scarce
evaluation studies have also demonstrated that educational
programmes may have negative effects on safety, leadingto
more casualties instead of less. Again, this finding
emphasizes the need for evaluation studies.

Focus of the report

 Range of studies
"Road safety education covers all measures that aim at
positively influencing traffic behaviour patterns, with an
emphasis on:
1. Promotion of knowledge and understanding of traffic rules and
situations
2. Improvement of skills through training and experience
3. Strengthening and/or changing attitudes towards risk
awareness, personal safety and the safety of other road
users" (untitled, ROSE 25, 2005).

Goals
Safe movement and orientation in traffic Transfer of 'survival techniques' in the short term Partnership, safe and responsible behaviour in the long -term

Methods

Indoor lessons, outdoor training in protected areas and real traffic, discussion, group work, investigations, presentations in the public, creative techniques, theatre in educatio

Knowledge Skills Attitude

Traffic rules and situations Motor abilities Commitment

Personal risks (life and health0 Transformation of knowledge Motivation to comply with
and motor abilities into
rules, to avoid risks, to act safely and socially
safe participation in traffic responsible
Consequences of risky behaviour

Concentration
Acting as role model for others to behave safely and socially
Reflection on mobility patterns and consequences
responsible
Estimation of distances & speed
Ecological,
Engagement for sustainable forms of traffic and
economical and health risks of traffic
environmentally friendly mobility patterns
Ability for self evaluation
…
…
….
 Figure 1. Definition of Road Safety Education (source: Rose 25)

Traffic education as a measure is used for all kinds of road

user groups and for all sorts of road safety issues. It ranges
from training young moped riders to 'driver improvement' of
convicted drivers. However, to find out if road safety
education is effective and which are the effective programme
components, a focus is needed on age groups and problem
behaviour for which a large number of educational
programmes has been developed and some evaluation
studies are also available. Educational programmes for
children between 5 and 12 meet these criteria; therefore this
report focuses on programmes for this age group. Road
safety education programmes which are carried out in
schools, as well as outside schools, are included.

The high availability of programmes for this age group

follows from these facts:
 Children are recognized as a vulnerable group regarding road
safety.
 Children represent a group that is easy to reach by
education. In reality this is the group that is also the
most exposed to road safety education.
 In most countries, road safety education for children is
part of the national curriculum, although organization of
road safety education in schools can differ
considerably between different countries.

For the comparison of road safety education with education

in other fields, we have focussed on studies that review the
educational practice in health education like drug and
alcohol use prevention, AIDS-risk reducing programmes,
mental health promotion, etc.

Selection of the studies

The search for road safety education programmes to be

included in this report was limited to the programmes aimed at
children, and discussed in literature published in the last ten
years (since 1993). The main selection criterion for road
safety education programmes to be investigated was that they
had to be coupled with evaluation data (of some kind) in order
to make the assessment of their effectiveness possible.

The educational programmes in other fields than road safety

were not the primary concern in this study. Therefore, we did
 not use the individual programmes, but instead we used
several review articles (about the effectiveness and
evaluation practice in fields of prevention of drug and alcohol
use prevention, AIDS- risk reducing and mental health
promotion) to learn about the good practice evaluation and
characteristics of effective educational programmes.

In the past few decades a large number of deterministic and/or stochastic

models have been developed to solve complex traffic and transportation engineering
problems. These mathematical models use different formulae and equations to solve
such problems.

Xuan Xu (2010):He had studied a paper on the risk early-warning method of

passenger flow in business district from four aspects parts i.e regional density,
flow rate of the section, bidirectional flow ratio of the section and mean velocit y
and compared the advantages and shortcomings of these methods. All of these
factors are significant in preventing such accident and constituting to the
emergency response.

Xiaoge Wei (2011):He studied a paper which chose a hospital as the object of study
and reset the velocity of pedestrians in a software i.e.,FDS+Evac by means of
collecting data which are related to real velocities of different pedestrian groups in
hospital, and investigated how the parameters such as velocity and exit familiarity
influence the evacuation results. The results showed that large velocity difference
leads to intermittent flow.
Yulong Pei ; Ji Ma:These people had studied the effect of road conditions to
accidents should be given much attention to. With large numbers of actual traffic
accidents of Shenda Freeway, Liaoning Province and Harbin City in China, the
parameters and effect along the accidents of horizontal curve, vertical graden ,
cross section and intersection were studied systematically, and the analysis of the
effect was presented. The critical value and the suitable range of curve radius and
angle of deflection was put forward in view of road safety. The safe grade value and
the proposed critical grade were raised in vertical grade design. The effect which
number of lanes, cross section of the road, height and gradient of subgrade
that influenced the traffic accidents were analyzed deeply.

Chunyan Li, Jun Chen(2009):They have studied that as the traffic accident forecast
result is not only affected by the present factors, but the past ones, it needs to know
the past values of traffic accident and its affected factors. Basing on the statistic
analysis of affected factors values in the past years, it was found that they
have obvious increase tendency and fluctuating characters which established the
relationship between traffic dead people and the other factors which can be called
affected factors. Time series and random event values being independent variables
and volume of dead people being dependent variable, a dynamic regression model is
established.

Zhuanglin MA, Chunfu SHAO(2010):This paper tells about how to

evaluate the association between accident severity and possible contributory
factors. The nature of the dependent variable that facilitates the application of binary
logistic regression for which the probability of an extra serious or major accident
against an ordinary or minor accident was estimated by maximum likelihood method.
Binary logistic regression was used in this. The probability that an extra serious or
major accident will occur or not was modelled as logistic distribution.

Cai Wenxue1, Wang Hengpeng2(2011):This paper tells about the improvement

of the traditional hazardous material road transportation accident rate analysis
model through a careful analysis based on the use of historical data, to achieve a
more accurate accident rate. They found Hazardous material road transportation
routing based on risk analysis was one of the key methods which can achieve the
reduction of hazardous material transportation risks and accident damages. Historical
data proved that the improved model results can get results more close to the actual
situation.
 CHAPTER-3

A ) ROAD GEOMETRY
Here a study was conducted to find out how the accident rate is affected due to
geometric features of the road such as horizontal radius,vertical grade, and
superelevation.

INSTRUMENTS USED FOR ROAD GEOMETRY

The topographic survey was done with high precision engineering survey instruments

such as a. Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS)

b. Total Station

DGPS is a ground-based modern technology instrument which is used for

positioning things on precise scale. This is used for measuring the real position
(Latitude, Longitude) in the globe and this works with satellites and ground based
computer technology.

TOTAL STATION is used for measuring distance, angle, and coordinates with
relative to the known position. Total station stores the digital data in internal memory
card and then download into a CAD programmed through some application
software to visualize the surveying data.

ROAD GEOMETRY

Here studies have been conducted on how the rate of accident is affected by the
radius of horizontal curve(RH),vertical curve(RV),superelevation(e).

Rate of accident is the ratio of “total no. of accidents” and the “total no. of vehicles”

20
 passed on a particular road during the same period of time.

In this case I have collected the road accident data of NH 200(from Bhojpur
131+150 to Telimunda Village 183+980) and at the accidents between these two
site I had taken all the values using the DGPS and total station for the calculation
of horizontal curve,vertical grade and superelevation.

CALCULATION OF RH,RV,e

The data obtained from the total station was plotted in AutoCAD using the
X,Y,Z co- ordinates.
FIGURE 1 –Calculation of Horizontal
Curve

FIGURE 2- Calculation of Vertical grade and

superelevation

For the calculation of horizontal radius all the measurements were taken and it was
plotted in Autocad software.Then the curved portions of the roads were extended to
meet at a point.then by using the fillet command in autocad the radius which
satisfied the curve was noted down as the horizontal curve radius.

RH =Radius of the fillet satisfying the

curve.

MX-Road software was used to determine the vertical

grade.

For the calculation of vertical grade the height difference between the end of the
road and at the middle of the road was calculated.

Rv=Height difference/total distance

covered

Measurement of superelevation is same as that of vertical

grade.
ACCIDENT DATA OF SH-2
ARAMBAGH TARAKESWAR ROAD
Source of Data- Arambag Police Station

Total Accident
TABLE
Year No. of Accident Accident Rate
2011 13 0.1095%
2012 10 0.0783%
2013 8 0.0583%
2014 14 0.0949%
2015 7 0.0441%
Total 52
Accident Rate
Accident Rate

0.1500%

0.1000%
Accident Rate
0.0500%
0.0000%
20112012 20132014
2015
Year
Horizontal
TABLE 3
Radius Median No. of Accident
<100 100 Accide1n8t Ra0te.00027
100-200 150 13 0.00019
200-300 250 2 0.00003
300-400 350 0 0.00000
400-500 450 0 0.00000
500-600 550 4 0.00006
600-700 650 1 0.00001
700-800 750 0 0.00000
800-900 850 0 0.00000
900-1000 950 0 0.00000
>1000 1050 0 0.00000
Total 38
 Horizontal vs Accident Rate

0.00025

Accident Rate 0.00020

0.00015

0.00010 Accident Rate

0.00005

0.00000 0 500 100

1500
Radius (m)

Vertical TABLE 4
Vertical TABLE 4
Grade (%) Median No. of Accident Accident Rate
<0.5 0.5 9 0.00002
0.5 - 1.0 0.75 13 0.00003
1.0 - 2.0 1.5 4 0.00004
2.0 - 3.0 2.5 4 0.00006
3.0 - 4.0 3.5 4 0.00006
4.0 - 5.0 4.5 1 0.00011
>5.0 5.5 17 0.00025
Total 52

Vertical Grade vs Accident

0.00025

0.00020
Accident Rate

0.00015

0.00010 Accident Rate

0.00005

0.00000 0 2 4 6
Grade (%)
Superelevation
TABLE 5
e% Median No. of Accident Accident Rate
Normal Crown 2.5 14 0.00002
(2>.52.-5%3.)0 2.75 2 0.00003
3.0 - 4.0 3.5 1 0.00005
4.0 - 5.0 4.5 6 0.00009
5.0 - 6.0 5.5 6 0.00009
6.0 - 7.0 6.5 7 0.00010
=>7 7.5 16 0.00024

Total 52

Superelevation vs Accident Rate

0.00025

0.00020
Accident Rate

0.00015

0.00010
Accident Rate
0.00005

0.00000 0 2 4 6 8
Superelevation
(%)

Aim of this study was to model the scenario.

In this case y=f(RV,RH,e)

objective function y, denotes TA, i.e., the total no. of accidents at that

point. decision variables: denoted by RV, RH, e

Wher
e
RV= Radius of the vertical curve

RH=Radius of the horizontal curve

 e=superelevation

The equation of the model is given by

TA = C1*RH + C2*RV + C3*e + C4

The aim is to estimate C1 , C2, C3 and C4 from the data collected through
multi- variable linear regression analysis.

ACCIDENT DATA OF SH2 TABLE-6

The regression equation using excel was found out to be

Y= -0.00121X1 - 0.12507X2 + 2.99x10-5X3 + 3.552
(B) MANMADE FEATURES
I have studied here how a driver gets disturbed due to the presence of some
unwanted things on the road/vicinity of the road.

The term “manmade features” mainly refers to any object on the side of the road
that, by virtue of its placement and structure, results in or is likely to cause,
a maximum probability of vehicular damage, occupant injury or fatality.

In my case I have considered three features such as roadway obstacles,

obstacles very near to road and posters though it will not cause obstruction, but
it can affect human’s mind).

Our main aim is to consider these factors and analyze it using some video data
and and then analyzed it through regression.

Study Area SH-2

 In this case I have collected the 10 years accident data of SH 2 and analyzed it to
model the equation.I had divided the 20 km road into 10 strips.So under one strip
2km came and under this one strip, I had calculated the total no. of accidents for
each month and stored it in a table.

Source of Data- PWD (Arambagh subdivison)

TABLE-7

(8- (10- (12- (14- (16- (18-

Distance(km) (0-2)km (2-4)km (4-6)km (6- 10)km 12)k 14)km 16)km 18)km 20)km Total
8)km m
year

2006 8 7 5 3 3 1 2 3 6 9 47

2007 6 8 11 11 9 2 1 3 5 6 62

2008 7 5 8 9 8 0 1 4 4 7 53

2009 9 5 8 8 12 1 2 3 5 5 58

2010 10 7 6 8 10 2 2 4 9 8 66

2011 14 12 15 9 12 2 3 7 15 16 105

2012 8 6 5 7 10 0 1 7 11 7 62

2013 10 16 4 15 9 0 0 4 20 17 95

2014 15 23 7 7 4 1 0 9 9 11 86

2015 7 7 9 6 8 0 2 6 10 12 67

94 96 78 83 85 9 14 50 94 98

Then a graph was plotted between each year and the no. of accidents that have
occurred in that year.

From the stretch 6(10-12km) and stretch 7(12-14km),we can easily conclude that
there are very obstacles in that road as the no. of accidents that have occurred
in that road is low compared to the other stretches.
 Total No. of accidents alnog the stretch

30

25

stretch 1
20 stretch 2
stretch 3
stretch 4
15 stretch 5
stretch 6
stretch 7
10
stretch 8
stretch 9

5 stretch 10

0 Year2011 2013 2015

2005 2007 2009

A ccident /year/km and Frequency TABLE-8

No of accidents in a year
Length
Name of stretch Sum of 10 year Accident/ Total
yr/km Cumulative
frequency
Tajpur Bus stand- 2km 94 4.7 13.41
tajpur petrol pump

Tajpur-petrol 2km 96 4.8 27.10

pump- tajpur SBI

83
30
 Petrol Pump- tajpur 2km 4.15 50.07
primary school

2km 78 3.9 38.23

TAJPUR SBI to petrol
pump

bhaura primary school- 2km 85 4.25 62.19

Muthadanga more

temple more- 2km 9 0.45 63.48

TAJPUR bazar

Tajpur Bazar-Temple 2km 14 0.7 65.48

More

2km 50 2.5 72.61

Kable More-Tajpur SBI

Tajpur SBI-
kothiya Bridge 2km 94 4.7 86.02

Kothiya Bridge-
Pursurah Samiti
2km 98 4.9 100

TAJPUR T0 MUZAFFARPUR ROAD ACCIDENT

DATE OF ACCIDENT CASE NO UNDER SECTION CATEGORY

30/05/2018 99/19 279/304(A) MALE

27/06/18 82/19 279/304(A) MALE

01/07/2018 74/19 279/304(A) MALE

23/07/2018 72/19 279/304(A) 337 MALE

11/08/2018 70/18 279/304(A) 338/337 MALE

14/08/2018 46/18 279/304(A)337 MALE

03/09/2018 07/18 279/304(A) /338 MALE

16/09/2018 0 2/18 279/337/427 MALE

01/10/2018 38/18 279/337/338 MALE

08/10/2018 12/18 279 /337 /338 MALE

27/10/2018 81/18 279/337/338 MALE

01/11/2018 53/18 279/337/338 MALE

All are natural death highway road TAJPUR TO MUZAFFARPUR ..

 Then a video was taken along this 20km road to find out all the road factors along
that road and was tabulated and finally it was modelled by multi linear regression.I
had considered three road factors such as

Roadway problems(which includes mainly the total length of the dividers along the road)

Obstacles which are present very nearer to the road(mainly the telephone poles,electric poles)

All the Posters which are present along the road

ADJACENT
DISTANCE STRUCTURES ROADWAY POSTER Accident /yr/km
PROBLEMS
(0-2)km 65 0 18 4.7
(2-4)km 22 0 15 4.8
(4-6)km 40 0 9 3.9
(6-8)km 69 28 7 4.2
(8-10)km 56 0 5 4.3
(10-12)km 41 0 3 0.45
(12-14)km 15 0 2 0.7
(14-16)km 8 29.33 4 2.5
(16-18)km 14 0 3 4.7
(18-20)km 14 0 1 4.9

.
Aim of this study was to model the

scenario. In this case y=f(X1,X2,X3)

objective function y, denotes accident /year /km

decision variables: denoted by X1,X2,X3

Wher
e
X1=no. of adjacent structures

X2= total no. of roadway problems length

X3 = no. of poster

The equation of the model is given by

AYM = C1*X1 + C2*X2 + C3*X3

The first aim is to estimate C1 , C2, and C3 from the data collected through multi-
variable linear regression analysis.

The regression equation was found out to be

Y= -0.000461X1 - 0.000838X2 + 0.1032 X3 + 2.646
CONCLUSIONS AND
DISCUSSIONS
2(A)
* With increase in horizontal curve,the accident rate decreases.
* With increase in vertical grade, the accident rate increases.
* With increase in superelevation,the accident rate increases

2(B)
The graph plotted between year and the total no. accidents clearly suggests that
there is no such obstacles along the road,stretch 6(10-12km) and stretch 7(12-
14km), which will cause the accident.
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35
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