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1 Financial Statement Model for Apple

1 $ mm except per share
1x GENERAL INFORMATION
1
1x INCOME STATEMENT
1 Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 30/09/2011 30/09/2012 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017
1
1 Revenue 108,249 156,508 170,910 170,910 170,910 170,910 170,910
1 Cost of sales (enter as -) (64,431) (87,846) (106,606) (107,502) (106,990) (106,990) (106,990)
1 Gross Profit 43,818 68,662 64,304 63,408 63,920 63,920 63,920
1 Research & development (enter as -) (2,429) (3,381) (4,475) (4,956) (5,298) (5,298) (5,298)
1 Selling, general & administrative (enter as -) (7,599) (10,040) (10,830) (11,622) (11,622) (11,622) (11,622)
1 Other operating income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Operating profit (EBIT) 33,790 55,241 48,999 46,829 47,000 47,000 47,000
1 Interest income 519 1,088 1,616
1 Interest expense (enter as -) 0 0 (136)
1 Other expense (enter as -) (104) (566) (324) (324) (324) (324) (324)
1 Equity in income/(loss) of affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Pretax profit 34,205 55,763 50,155 46,505 46,676 46,676 46,676
1 Taxes (enter expense as -) (8,283) (14,030) (13,118) (12,231) (12,136) (12,136) (12,136)
1 Minority Interest Expense (enter as -) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Net income 25,922 41,733 37,037 34,274 34,540 34,540 34,540
1
1 Number of weighted average shares for computing basic E 924 935 925 900 900 900 900
1 Impact of dilutive securities on number of shares 12 11 6 6 6 6 6
1 Number of diluted shares for computing EPS 937 945 932 906 906 906 906
1 Impact of dilutive securities on income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1
1 Basic EPS $28.05 $44.64 $40.03
1 Diluted EPS $27.68 $44.15 $39.75
1
1 Growth rates & margins
1 Revenue growth NA 44.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 Gross profit as % of sales 40.5% 43.9% 37.6% 37.1% 37.4% 37.4% 37.4%
1 R&D margin 2.2% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
1 SG&A margin 7.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
1 Tax rate 24.2% 25.2% 26.2% 26.3% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
1
1 EBITDA reconciliation
1 EBIT 33,790 55,241 48,999 46,829 47,000 47,000 47,000
1 Depreciation & amortization 1,814 3,277 6,757 6,887 7,654 8,454 9,179
1 Stock based compensation 1,168 1,740 2,253 2,109 2,007 2,106 2,106
1 EBITDA 36,772 60,258 58,009 55,826 56,662 57,561 58,286
1
1x REVENUE BY SEGMENTS
1
1x BALANCE SHEET
1 Fiscal year 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 30/09/2012 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017
1 Cash & equivalents ST & LT market. securities 121,251 146,761
1 Accounts receivable 10,930 13,102 13,111 13,111 13,111 13,111
1 Inventory 791 1,764 1,720 1,712 1,712 1,712
1 Other current assets (inc. non-trade receivables) 14,220 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421
1 Deferred tax assets (DTAs) 2,583 3,453 3,453 3,453 3,453 3,453
1 Property, plant & equipment 15,452 16,597 19,306 22,378 24,499 25,668
1 Acquired intangible assets (inc. Goodwill) 5,359 5,756 4,706 3,721 2,888 2,282
1 Investment in affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Other non current assets 5,478 5,146 5,146 5,146 5,146 5,146
1 Total assets 176,064 207,000 61,863 63,942 65,230 65,793
1
1 Accounts payable 21,175 22,367 21,795 22,277 22,277 22,277
1 Other payables & deferred revenue (current & non-current) 20,015 23,916 22,731 21,706 20,680 19,826
1 Revolver 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Long term debt 0 16,960 16,960 16,960 14,460 14,460
1 Deferred tax liabilities (DTLs) 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Other non-current liabilities 16,664 20,208 20,208 20,208 20,208 20,208
1 Bonus and Welfare fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Science and Technology development fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Total liabilities 57,854 83,451 81,694 81,151 77,625 76,771
1
1 Common stock and APIC (additional paid in capital) 16,422 19,764 21,873 23,881 25,987 28,094
1 Treasury stock (enter as -) 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Retained earnings / accumulated deficit 101,289 104,256 128,754 153,443 178,131 202,820
1 Other comprehensive income / (loss) 499 (471) (471) (471) (471) (471)
1 Investment and Development Fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Financial Reserve Fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Other equity account 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 Total equity 118,210 123,549 150,157 176,853 203,648 230,443
1
1 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0
1
1 Balance check 0 0 (169,988) (194,061) (216,043) (241,421)
1
1 Ratios
1 Net debt (negative means more cash than debt) (121,251) (129,801) 16,960 16,960 14,460 14,460
1 Asset turnover (Revenue / Total assets) 0.89x 0.83x 2.76x 2.67x 2.62x 2.60x
1 Net profit margin 26.7% 21.7% 20.1% 20.2% 20.2% 20.2%
1 Return on assets (ROA) 23.7% 17.9% 55.4% 54.0% 53.0% 52.5%
1 Return on book equity (ROE) 35.3% 30.0% 22.8% 19.5% 17.0% 15.0%
1
1x WORKING CAPITAL
1
1x INTANGIBLE ASSETS (INC. GOODWILL)
1
1x PROPERTY, PLANT & EQUIPMENT
1
1x OTHER ASSETS / LIABILITIES / EQUITY
1
1x LONG TERM DEBT
1
1x CAPITAL STOCK
1 Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 30/09/2011 30/09/2012 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017
1
1 Common stock / APIC
1 Beginning of period 19,764 21,873 23,881 25,987
1 Plus: new share issuances 831 665 530 0 0 0 0
1 Plus: Stock based compensation 2,109 2,007 2,106 2,106
1 Less: Treasury stock retired (enter as -) 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 End of period 16,422 19,764 21,873 23,881 25,987 28,094
1
1 Stock based compensation 1,168 1,740 2,253 2,109 2,007 2,106 2,106
1 SBC as % of all operating expenses 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%
1
1 Treasury stock
1 Beginning of period 0 0 0 0
1 Less: Stock repurchases (enter as -)
1 Plus: Stocks retired
1 End of period 0 0 0 0 0 0
1
1 RETAINED EARNINGS & OCI
1 Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 30/09/2011 30/09/2012 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017
1
1 Retained earnings
1 Beginning of period 104,256 128,754 153,443 178,131
1 Plus: Net income 34,274 34,540 34,540 34,540
1 Less: Common dividends (9,776) (9,852) (9,852) (9,852)
1 Less: part of treasury stocks retired above common stocks & APIC 0 0 0 0
1 Less: increase in Bonus and Welfare fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0
1 Less: increase in Science and Technology development fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0
1 Less: increase in Investment and Development Fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0
1 Less: increase in Financial Reserve Fund (for VN) 0 0 0 0
1 End of period 101,289 104,256 128,754 153,443 178,131 202,820
1
1 Net income 25,922 41,733 37,037 34,274 34,540 34,540 34,540
1 Common dividends 0 (2,488) (10,564) (9,776) (9,852) (9,852) (9,852)
1 Dividend payout ratio 0.0% 6.0% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5%
1
1 Other comprehensive income / (loss)
1 Beginning of period (471) (471) (471) (471)
1 Plus: Income / (loss) 0 0 0 0
1 End of period 499 (471) (471) (471) (471) (471)
1
1x CASH FLOW STATEMENT
1 Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 30/09/2011 30/09/2012 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017
1
1 34,274 34,540 34,540 34,540
1 6,887 7,654 8,454 9,179
1 2,109 2,007 2,106 2,106
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 (9) 0 0 0
1 44 8 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 (572) 482 0 0
1 (1,185) (1,025) (1,025) (855)
1 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 Cash from operating activities 41,549 43,667 44,075 44,971
1
1 (8,546) (9,742) (9,742) (9,742)
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 Cash from investing activities (8,546) (9,742) (9,742) (9,742)
1
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 (2,500) 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 (9,776) (9,852) (9,852) (9,852)
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 Cash from financing activities (9,776) (9,852) (12,352) (9,852)
1
1 Net change in cash during period
1
1x MODEL PLUG: REVOLVER & CASH
1 Fiscal year 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 30/09/2012 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017
1
1 Revolver
1 Beginning of period
1 Increases / (decreases)
1 End of period
1
1 Maximum availability
1 Compliance check
1
1 Revolver needs analysis
1 Cash at Beginning of period
1 Less: Minimum cash desired
1 Equals: Excess cash at beginning of period
1 Plus: Free cash flows generated during period
1 Equals: Cash available to paydown (needed to draw from) revolver
1
1 Interest rate on revolver 2% 2% 2% 2%
1 Interest expense
1
1 Cash
1 Beginning of period 146,761 0 0 0
1 + addition/- deduction (146,761) 0 0 0
1 End of period 121,251 146,761 0 0 0 0
1
1 Interest rate on cash 0.77% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03%
1 Interest income 519 1,088 1,616
1
1x SHARES OUTSTANDING
1 Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 30/09/2011 30/09/2012 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017
1
1 Number of actual shares outstanding
1 Beginning of period 900 900 900 900
1 + new shares issued 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 - shares repurchased 0 0 0 0
1 End of period 900 900 900 900 900
1
1 Consensus EPS $27.68 $44.15 $39.75 43.98 47.57 53.75 60.74
1 % change in EPS, year-over-year 59.5% (9.9%) 10.6% 8.2% 13.0% 13.0%
1 Average share price $604.86 $669.16 $723.79 $817.88 $924.20
1
1x SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
1
1x SCENARIO ANALYSIS
1 Fiscal year 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
1 Fiscal year end date 9/29/12 9/28/13 9/30/14 9/30/15 9/30/16 9/30/17
1
1 Select an operating scenario:
1
1 Revenue growth
1 Gross profit as % of sales
1 R&D margin
1 SG&A margin
1
1 Revenue growth
1 Best case 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
1 Base case 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.9%
1 Weak case 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 Gross profit as % of sales
1 Best case 37.5% 37.5% 37.5% 37.5%
1 Base case 37.1% 37.4% 37.4% 37.4%
1 Weak case 36.5% 36.5% 36.5% 36.5%
1 R&D margin
1 Best case 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
1 Base case 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
1 Weak case 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
1 SG&A margin
1 Best case 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
1 Base case 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
1 Weak case 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
 2018P
30/09/2018

170,910
(106,990)
63,920
(5,298)
(11,622)
0
47,000

(324)
0
46,676
(12,136)
0
34,540

900
6
906
0
 0.0%
37.4%
3.1%
6.8%
26.0%

47,000
9,959
2,106
59,066

2018P
30/09/2018
0
13,111
1,712
14,421
3,453
25,885
1,848
0
5,146
65,576

22,277
18,800
0
8,460
0
20,208
 0
0
69,745

30,200
0
227,508
(471)
0
0
0
257,238

(261,407)

8,460
2.61x
20.2%
52.7%
13.4%
 2018P
30/09/2018

28,094
0
2,106
0
30,200

2,106
1.7%

2018P
30/09/2018

202,820
34,540
(9,852)
0
0
0
0
0
227,508

34,540
 (9,852)
28.5%

(471)
0
(471)

2018P
30/09/2018

34,540
9,959
2,106
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(1,025)

0
0
45,580

(9,742)
0
0
0
0
(9,742)
 0
(6,000)
0
0
(9,852)
0
0
0
0
(15,852)

2018P
30/09/2018

2%
 0
0
0

1.03%

2018P
30/09/2018

900
0.0
0
900

68.64
13.0%
$1,044.35

2018P
9/30/18
10.0%
5.4%
0.0%

37.5%
37.4%
36.5%

2.5%
3.1%
3.3%

6.4%
6.8%
7.0%