Global Middle Class 2030

Trends towards 2030 and opportunities for New

Zealand primary sector exports
November 2019

2030

2020

2010
2.4 3.8 5.4
billion billion billion

ECONOMIC
INTELLIGENCE UNIT
 Contents

Overview 1

Key takeaways 2

Background 3

Drivers of the global middle class 4

The middle class by region 5

Challenges to a growing global middle class 7

Opportunities for New Zealand primary sectors 8

References 9

DISCLAIMER:

While care has been used in compiling this document, the Ministry for Primary Industries do not give any prediction, warranty or
assurance in relation to the accuracy of or fitness for any particular purpose, use or application of any information contained in
this document. To the full extent permitted by law , Ministry for Primary Industries nor any of its employees, shall not be liable for
any cost (including legal costs), claim, liability, loss, damage, injury or the like, which may be suffered or incurred as a direct or
indirect result of the reliance by any person on any information contained in this document.
OVERVIEW

The growing middle class is identified as one of the

most important megatrends that will determine the
market structure and trade requirements for the
global economy over the next two decades (National
Intelligence Council, 2012). This demographic is now
spreading to include emerging economies where the
average rate of annual growth over the past decade economies continues to raise income levels, the
has exceeded 8%. consumption habits of those entering the middle
class is expected to change from coarse grains and
In 2015, the global middle class spent $US33 trillion, cereals towards higher protein, sugar, fats and oils
around two-thirds of the world total spending (Hupkens & Knibbe, 2000).
(Kharas, 2016). However, these numbers are set to
grow over the next two decades mainly driven by With New Zealand’s primary sector exports reaching
ongoing economic growth in emerging economies. $NZ46.4 billion for the year ended June 2019, the
Looking forward to 2030, the global middle class rising global middle class represents an attractive
population is expected to reach 5.4 billion with total global market opportunity for New Zealand’s primary
spending of US$63 trillion. producers. In particular, New Zealand’s strong trade
relations in many of these key markets, supported by
free trade agreements, have the potential to be a
Figure 1. Expected middle class population and strong driver of future growth for New Zealand’s
spending in 2030 primary sector exports.

While currently New Zealand supports a wide variety

5.4 billion US$63 trillion of primary sector activity, there is a high
people spending concentration of export revenue associated with a
few key industries and subset of export markets.
65% of world 67% of world Over time, these markets will change, as will the
total total primary industry sectors they support, as they adapt
to sustainable production practices, technological
advancements, labour, and climate changes.
This report therefore explores the growing export
opportunities for New Zealand’s primary sector
products, fuelled by the growing global population of
middle class consumers. It provides an assessment
of the general trends in the global middle class
Population Spending looking ahead to 2030. Based on a review of the
Source: Kharas (2017) latest academic literature and business studies it
seeks to understand the scale of the emerging
demographic trends of the global middle class,
Therefore, as a driving force for sustainable including consumer needs and preferences, as well
economic growth, the global middle class represents as their intersection with New Zealand’s primary
an important target market for many international sector production in the future. This report examines
industries (Kharas, 2016). In particular, as ongoing the changes we expect in the global consumer base
economic development in emerging market that will necessitate that evolution.

1
KEY TAKEAWAYS

The middle class is a cohort who have sufficient regular income to cover
basic living needs, with enough money left for a few luxuries in their daily
lives.

The global middle class population is expected to reach 5.4 billion with total
spending of US$63 trillion by 2030.

Global economic growth is the main driver for the projected increase in the
global middle class.

Asia-Pacific will remain the largest middle class population while the
established middle class in Europe and North America will see small growth
by 2030. However, North America is still likely to remain a key driver of
global consumption due to the relative wealth of its middle class.

China and India are predicted to have the highest number of new entrants
into the middle class by 2030.

Consumption patterns of those entering the middle class will change from
coarse grains and cereals towards higher protein, sugar, fats and oils.

There are significant export opportunities for New Zealand to sell high quality
primary sector products such as meat and dairy to the emerging global
middle class, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

Key risks to the growing middle class are potential weakness in global
economic growth from trade uncertainty, natural resource scarcity, climate
change, carbon emissions, greater inequality and the middle income trap.

2
BACKGROUND

Background

The global middle class plays an important role in In the absolute measures, the middle class is defined
economic development globally, as a key driver of as encompassing a wide range of household
consumer spending. In New Zealand’s key export spending of US$11 to US$110 per person per day(1).
markets, with their higher disposable incomes, the Relative measure definitions include households
middle class is the primary demographic group which whose income sits between 75% and 125% of the
will consume our products over the coming decades. national median income (Birdsall et al., 2000). The
This is especially important as business, social, middle class has also been defined as those whose
environmental, and regulatory pressures increasingly income is sufficient to weather a shock without the
challenge New Zealand exporters. vulnerability to fall into poverty (Lopez- Calva and
Ortiz-Juarez, 2011).
The middle class – definitions abound
Regardless of the measure used, what is common
The middle class is a complex cohort with varied across all definitions is the assessment that the
definitions. In the academic literature, definitions of middle class are a cohort who have sufficient regular
the middle class are often based on both absolute income to cover basic living needs with enough
and relative measures of consumption expenditure money left for a few luxuries in their daily lives.
as well as financial vulnerability.

3
(1) Dollar values are in 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
DRIVERS

Drivers of the global middle class population

Economic growth is positively related to the rise of cities will join that group, taking the Chinese total to
the middle class (Brueckner et al., 2017). A strong 17. This total of 17 Chinese cites in world’s top 50 in
middle class generates a stable consumer base and 2030 will be more than North America and four times
contributes to economic growth (Madland, 2011). more than Europe.
This lift in economic growth, in turn, can create a
beneficial “middle class effect” whereby more of the In this context, another key consumer trend that
population shifts into the middle class (EY, 2013; emerges from the Global Cities 2030 study is the
Drabble et al., 2015). This process has happened way in which the number of high-income Chinese
faster in some developing countries, particularly in consumers is set to increase the next two decades.
the largest emerging economies such as China and Starting from a comparatively low base today, the
India. Over the past decade, growth in middle-class study predicts that China will have around 45 million
expenditure in developed countries has averaged urban households in 2030 with annual incomes in
only 0.4%, while in developing economies it has excess of $70,000, putting it well ahead of Europe
averaged 8% per year (Kharas, 2017). and second behind North America.

In addition to overall economic growth, within Figure 3: Region global urban aggregate: High-
developing countries, increased productivity, an income households
attractive business environment, increasing female
labour participation, greater urbanisation, increasing
educational attainment, and the establishment of a
social safety net will also be drivers for middle class
growth (Euromonitor, 2015). In addition, driven by
rising urban populations and rapid growth in labour
productivity, it is the world’s cities that will be the
engines of economic growth in the future. In
particular, China is forecast to be a key driver for that
growth.

Figure 2: Shift eastward in urban economic power

GDP (US$ trillion 2012 prices and exchange rates)

Source: Oxford Economics (2013)

In developed countries, such as those in the

European Union and North America, the forecast
increase in their middle class will be significantly
slower than for developing economies, due to their
slower overall economic growth, and reduced
mobility between income classes (Kochhar, 2018).
Within Europe, increasing income polarisation has
led to a reduction in the size of the middle class in
some countries, while in others government
redistributive policies are considered one of the most
important positive drivers for the size of the middle
class (Derndorfer and Kranzinger, 2017).

Source: Oxford Economics (2013) The Oxford Economics report also analyses
changing consumer dynamics, predicting that growth
In its study of the trends and market opportunities of in spending on non-essentials (88%) will outpace
the world’s largest 750 cities, Oxford Economics growth in essentials spend (78%), a reflection of
(2013) predicted that by 2030 the world’s 750 biggest increasing affluence. The gap in growth between the
cities will account for 61% of total world GDP (up two is even wider for emerging market economies, in
from 57% currently). Importantly, they predict that particular China, Latin America, the Caribbean and
eight European cities will drop out of the global top Africa, where growth in non-essential expenditure is
50 cities by GDP by 2030, while nine new Chinese forecast to be particularly strong.

4
REGION

The middle class by region

In 2015, the global middle class totalled 3 billion Figure 6: Expected Consumer Spending in 2030 by
people, with nearly half of them located in the Asia region
Pacific region. Research predicts that the global
middle class population will grow by 80% to reach
around 5.4 billion people by 2030, with the fastest
growth occurring in developing countries (Kharas, 10%
13%
2017; KPMG, 2014). Figure 4 shows this expected
North America
distribution of the global middle class in both 2015
and 2030. Kharas’ forecasts predict that almost 90% Asia
of new entrants into the middle class will be from 20%
Asia. In particular, out of the next billion entrants, Europe
almost 38% will be Indian and 35% Chinese. On the
other hand, the middle class in North America and Rest of the World
Europe is expected to remain large and stable in the 57%
coming years.

Figure 4. The expected size of the global middle

class by region, 2015 vs. 2030
4 Source: Kharas (2017)
3.5
3
Billion people

China
2.5
2 China’s middle class is expected to continue to grow
1.5 with overall economic development, albeit at a
1 slowing pace as its population peaks near 2030. The
Chinese middle class includes people who are
0.5
mostly on the public payroll and urban mass (e.g.
0
North Europe Central Asia Middle
blue collar workers and migrant workers) (Goldman
America and South Pacific East and Sachs, 2018). This trend toward urbanisation has
America Africa created a shift in the Chinese diet. This has included
2015 2030 a ‘westernisation’ of the Chinese dietary preferences,
Source: Kharas (2017)
with an expansion of consumption of dairy products,
as well as a focus on food quality. In addition to
urbanisation, the Chinese middle class population is
expected to be increasingly an aging population,
In addition to population, the middle class is also
which will impact consumer spending patterns
expected to account for the majority of global
(Drabble et al., 2015; Oxford Economics, 2013).
consumer spending by 2030. Figure 5 compares the
consumption share of the top 5 countries in 2015
with their share in 2030. It indicates that while the
India
United States is currently the largest middle class
market, it will be replaced by China by 2030. Overall, As indicated in Figure 5, India’s continuing growth is
Asia is expected to have the largest share of expected to make it the second-largest consumer
consumer spending (more than 50%) by 2030, market by 2030. However, the growth in the total size
followed by Europe and North America (Figure 6). of the Indian middle class is likely to be smaller than
China’s, with greater growth expected post 2030.
Figure 5: Change in share of Global Consumption- Over this period the Indian middle class is likely to
Top 5 countries transition towards more nuclear family structures
Russia 3% (versus extended family arrangements), with
4%
increasing time compression(2). This trend is
India 17% important, as per person consumption in nuclear
5%
family structures is 20-30% greater than in extended
Japan 3% families (Singhi et al., 2017). As such, India’s pattern
6%
of urbanisation, shifts in family structures, and rising
China 22% affluence is expected to significantly change its
12%
consumption patterns over the next decade.
US 7%
13%
2030 2015
Source: Kharas (2017)

(2) Time compression reflects a perception of having to be more productive with less time. 5
REGION

Rest of Asia Europe

Outside of India and China, large ASEAN countries Europe was the second largest middle class market
such as Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and in 2015, constituting 24% of the global total, with 724
Vietnam are also experiencing significant economic million people. By 2030, the population is expected to
development. As their large populations experience expand only slightly to 733 million people, while their
strong growth, their growing middle class will make share of the global middle class is expected to drop
them key potential areas of export growth for New to 14%. In addition, European consumption is
Zealand’s primary sector producers. In contrast, expected to increase slightly, reflecting the lack of
developed Asian economies, such as South Korea growth in population. As a result, the European share
and Japan, will experience slowing middle class of consumption is expected to drop from 31% in 2015
growth and their consumption patterns will likely to 20% in 2030 (Kharas, 2017).
mimic those in other developed economies.
However, since the recession of the late 2000s,
Latin America the middle class has shrunk in over two-thirds of the
European Union (Alderman, 2019). The median
Central and South America’s middle class population income for middle-class families also fell, especially
is predicted to grow from 285 million in 2015 to 335 in Southern Europe, eroding purchasing power and
million by 2030 (Figure 4). However, this slow rate of feeding discontent that has driven political
growth compared to other developing nations means polarization and populist protests like the Yellow Vest
that the size of the Latin American middle class as a movement in France. The European middle class is
proportion of the global total is expected to fall from likely to continue to experience similar challenges
9% in 2015 to only 6% by 2030 (Kharas, 2017). related to developed countries, including an ageing
of the population, rising individual inequality in terms
Africa and the Middle East of income and education, which is expected to
change consumption patterns (Drabble et al., 2015).
It is estimated that by 2030, Sub-Saharan African
nations will reach the levels of middle class per North America
capita income that Middle East were in 2014
(Kharas, 2017). The Sub-Saharan middle class In 1971 the American Middle class represented 61%
population is expected to grow from 114 million in of the total population. Recent research indicates that
2015 to 212 million by 2030, with the Middle-East while this declined to 52% by 2001 it has remained
and North Africa also predicted to grow from 192 to unchanged since then (Kochhar, 2018). Despite this,
285 million. However, Sub-Saharan Africa North American middle class consumption is
represented only 4% of the total global middle class estimated to remain relatively flat out to 2030, while
population in 2015, and this is expected to remain its share of global spending is expected to decrease
unchanged by 2030. In addition, the Middle-East and from 18% to only 10%.
North Africa, representing 6% of the global middle
class population in 2015, is expected to decrease to North America’s middle class population growth is
5% by 2030. likely to move in line with those in Europe, and
remain reasonably stable, with very low growth,
The consumption profile in Africa differs significantly albeit with higher levels of inequality. In particular, its
from other developing regions. While urbanisation is middle class is expected to see a slight increase in
one of the main drivers of the growing middle class in population by 2030. However, its share of the total
Asia, this less likely to be a case over the coming global middle class population is likely to drop from
decade for Africa. Mainly because, weak 11% to 7%. Despite this, some studies note North
infrastructure and governance, combined with an America is likely to remain a key driver of global
overwhelmingly large young population is expected consumption (even as a reduced percentage of
to increase the risks of political instability (Oxford overall global consumption), as wealthier households
Economics, 2013). In addition, the range of GDP per (including upper middle class and upper class rich
capita of the Africa middle class is likely to be at the households) will continue to increase (Kharas, 2017;
lower end of the global distribution. Oxford Economics, 2013).

6
CHALLENGES

Challenges to a growing global middle class

There is consensus among the researchers and population will be incompatible with the UN
commentators that developing nations will drive a Convention on Climate Change Paris agreement to
significant rise in the population moving into secure keep temperature increases no greater than 2
positions within the global middle class. However, degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels.
many of the assumptions behind this analysis are
based on the absence of economic shocks, as well Greater inequality
as the resolution of key global and regional specific
policy challenges. These include the following: Faster forecast growth of emerging economies
compared to developed nations is expected to lead
Weakness in global economic growth to greater equality between nations. However, some
commentators are also pointing to the rise of within-
The possible recurrence of global economic and country inequality as a potential factor hindering
financial crises have the potential to disrupt economic growth, increasing the risk of financial
economic growth, and inhibit the structural change crises and weakening demand (Drabble et al 2015).
and investment required to lift many developing In particular, they point to the risk that sustained high
nations out of poverty. With China accounting for inequality could stifle social mobility, preventing
much of the rising middle class, the rate of economic wealth from reaching the middle classes in some
growth in this country will have a direct impact on emerging economies.
expectations for middle class population expansion.
These effects are not limited to developing countries,
In particular, global trade tensions, which currently with some European nations as well as the United
threaten to undermine economic growth across many States exhibiting dwindling returns to the middle
key emerging and developed economies, are class due to increasing inequality.
currently a key risk factor to forecasts of the middle
class growth. Although economic growth is the strongest driver of
equality, it is clear also that redistributive policies
Natural resource scarcity also play an important role. In particular, the ability of
developing economies to invest in education, reduce
Drabble et al. (2015) point to the prospect of an corruption, provide basic social safety nets, and
increase in the consuming middle class accelerating foster secure labour, is asserted to have enhancing
the scarcity of finite resources, including forests, effects on equality and therefore security of their
productive soil for agriculture, and quality water middle class (Drabble et al. 2015).
supplies. They define this future battle for resources
as potentially a zero sum game, where more for one Middle income trap
economy will come at the expense of others, with the
poorest nations likely bearing the greatest negative Drabble et al. (2015) also raise the economic risk of
outcomes. some developing countries experiencing the effects
of a ‘middle income trap’, whereby they lose their
Using water demand forecasts as an example, this competitive edge in exports (particularly for
will be a significant challenge particularly for India manufactured goods) due to rising wages. This
and China. In 2030, it is estimated India’s demand for phenomenon can occur in developing economies
water will exceed its supply by a factor of 2 (The which, having grown their middle income levels,
Economic Times, 2018). Similarly, by 2030, China’s subsequently stagnate economically and fail to
demand for water is expected to outstrip its supply achieve advanced economy status.
(Abbs, 2017).
Research conducted by the World Bank (2013) found
Climate change and carbon emission reductions that of 101 middle-income countries in 1960, only 13
countries had achieved high-income status by 2008.
The global population growth of the middle class has Government policy initiatives to promote innovation
significant regional and global environmental and investment growth in new technology are often
implications. As the middle class expands, its carbon required to ensure these countries avoid reaching a
footprint per person will also rise (Kharas, 2017) with point where they are unable to compete with low-
important consequences for climate change. It is wage economies in manufactured products, but
clear that in the absence of technological change, the equally are not competitive in high skill innovative
current forecast growth of the middle class products produced by advanced nations.

7
OPPORTUNITIES

Opportunities for New Zealand’s primary sectors

The growing urban middle class in developing To fully take full advantage of this opportunity, it is
countries presents a significant opportunity for New important for New Zealand producers to increase
Zealand’s primary sector. In particular, for New their understanding of specific consumer preferences
Zealand’s largest trading partner China, the projected in individual developing countries such as China and
total spending from the growing Chinese middle India, which are expected to account for a large
class is expected to grow from $US4.2 trillion to share of middle class by 2030. This may require
$US14.3 trillion by 2030 (Kharas, 2017). As per adjustments to product design and marketing
capita income and urbanisation increase, so does the programmes, to incorporate the needs of these Asian
tendency of these consumers to purchase a greater consumers.
proportion of higher-value and quality foods such as
meat and dairy. For the established middle classes in Europe and
North America, it is expected that demand for New
These changes in consumption patterns, along with Zealand primary sector products will continue as long
sizable population growth, is expected to lead to a as New Zealand products retain their consumer
significant increase in the total demand for primary appeal and standing in destination markets. In these
sector products. markets, consumer preference will be as important
as market access.
Increasingly many of New Zealand’s goods will be
consumed by people with differing cultural values, For the Africa and Middle-East region, the expected
economic pressures and social drivers to those faced size and income of the future middle class is
in this country. The key attributes which these promising. However, political challenges and social
consumers value will differ significantly from country unrest in the region could pose significant challenges
to country, meaning the New Zealand’s exporters are to market access.
likely to meet a complex combination of challenges
and opportunities. Monitoring the evolution of emerging middle classes,
their preferences, and the performance of New
However, understanding where these different Zealand products with those populations will be key
consumer groups place value - and actively to unlocking those markets and aiding investment
responding to it - will also represents an important decision making in the primary sectors. Successfully
opportunity and potential competitive advantage to growing export value involves developing supply
those businesses supplying the growing middle class scale, brand premium, and defensible propositions
over the next decade. which resonate with the new middle class
consumers.
For the emerging middle class in Asia, New
Zealand's primary sector exports are a fit for both
essential staples, and food products which could be
considered 'trading-up'. Appropriately targeted
development of primary sector export streams which
serve the middle class as they increase their
discretionary spending and trade-up can support
New Zealand's drive to move from volume based
commodity revenue to increased value for
production.

8
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mpi.govt.nz/eiu Published August 2019