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SCM Question 2

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Arkadeep Talukder
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380 views3 pages

SCM Question 2

SCM

Uploaded by

Arkadeep Talukder
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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er2021 Solution Powered by Ninja x Samurai Question: Monthly demand at A&D Electronics for flat screen TVs are as follows: Month Demand (units) 1,000 1,113 1,271 1,445 1,558 1,648, 1,724 1,850 9 1,864 10 2,076 112,167 12 2,191 Estimate demand for the next two months using simple exponential smoothing with a=0.3 and Holt’s model with a=0.05 and 8=0.1 . For the simple exponential smoothing model, use the level at Period 0 tobe LO = 1,659 (the average demand over the 12 months). For Holt’s model, use level at Period 0 to be LO = 948 and the trend in Period 0 to be TO = 109. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, MSE, bias, and TS in each case. Which of the two methods do you prefer? Why? Answer: Exponential smoothing forecast. Forecast is calculated as : yt = y?1 + ??(y?t-17 yr-1),, where y?t is the forecast in period t and yt is the actual demand in period t Bia! yt- yet Abs error = lyt~ y?tl (yt - yet)? ‘Abs % error = lyt - y?tl/yt Square error = RSFE is running sum of bias MAD is running average of Absolute error hitpsiichegg buzziview 18 ren021 setton a eee E ee i i 1 [Exponential Smoothing 5 [atonir[oemand [rors] iss [abs evar square tor [abssieor| nore wap ea Tao [isso [asso] esa | eet | ssn | 90 [90 [a0 Seas Paaens [aaa [ans [ans [aan [ ina [ soar [20 [saan [aasea [asa [ase [ms —[ gan —[ cit | sec ae a a oases aes [asa [ase [ase ea [aon [a $e teat [ast [ans [aes sesn [ase [ sors [ame [ a so 9 [ara [aso [asa [ane sust [ase [aon [aes [a us| ass [isons [asa | ansa | sre: [as [ane [ame posse fiere [ies | mes | aon | anes [aoa | 13 ciao Paras [ese [aes8 [anes | se ste [area te eae [eats [ass [ns [isso [asa [srt [area [a2 ts [oie aist Pasa [ss [aes | 00e7 [tz [asses [at Fs 2 si is Tas is 75955 » 1076 2 Formula used in Excel sheet C5 =C4+(B4-C4)*0.3 £4 =ABs(D4) F4=D4n2 64 =E4/B4 HS B+H4 4 =AVERAGE(ES4:E4) J4=H4/14 HI7 =HI5 HI8 =115 HI9 =AVERAGE(F4:F15) H20 =AVERAGE(G4:615) Holt’s model hitpsiichegg buzziview 28 ‘iez021 Solution a a os z é w i a a 1 Hols Model 2) o= 005 oT 4 Monty [oemand [rend (eLeve Forecast (| as [Abs ror] Squne ror Abs or] —ASRE [MAD _[ 1S S21 [wow [imo [ome | ue [ose f sa | sus [ sv | sre [570 | 40 62 [as wes anes | esa [50056 [aes [sof usa | ses [20 7 au os [aa [ease [a [| ass [tos [as [ae oe [ as [os [sao | anes [eee | ean [er [2a aai_| 20 9 os [ass [ie Prana [sans [asa [36a [ae [2a mas | 42 6 [468 [20 [ast] soa [79 [7a [es [os [os | asa [an no wiga_[ sues [a7ea7 | -327| sar | a0 | a9 [7a [as] za pos wae [ayete [amma [ zen [aan <8 | s6a | m7 | 20 bos see [1gn7] 15005 [ame | ims | asua3 | oes | -nso | 5 | so a0 193 [aero [ais [ass | 259 | am | uae [aera [azo | 59 >a 196 [2007s ama | sa | a | | ass | one [a | ra we a4 [2aw6| ain [aa | 20 | ames | ose [ame | a | 26 ® a8. a 30% Formula: C6 =$D$2*(D6-D5)+(1-$D$2)*C5 D6 £6 6+D6 B$2*B6+(I-$B$2)*(D5+C5) Formulas for Error analysis are same as in exponential smoothing. | prefer Holt's method, because it has the least bias, MAD, MSE and MAPE. Therefore, it gives more accurate prediction of demand. hitpsiichegg buzziview 38

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