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Guesstimate S

This document provides an introduction to guesstimates and approaches for tackling them. It discusses asking preliminary questions, formulating an approach, thinking out loud, and sanity checking. Methods covered include simple math, per capita, supply/production side, and demand/consumption side approaches. Examples estimate India's area using diagonals of a rhombus and daily passenger volume at Delhi airport. Tips include explaining work, approximating, and focusing on approach over accuracy. Important population and demographic figures for India are also listed.

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Vishesh Dargan
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90 views10 pages

Guesstimate S

This document provides an introduction to guesstimates and approaches for tackling them. It discusses asking preliminary questions, formulating an approach, thinking out loud, and sanity checking. Methods covered include simple math, per capita, supply/production side, and demand/consumption side approaches. Examples estimate India's area using diagonals of a rhombus and daily passenger volume at Delhi airport. Tips include explaining work, approximating, and focusing on approach over accuracy. Important population and demographic figures for India are also listed.

Uploaded by

Vishesh Dargan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Guesstimates

AN INTRO TO HOW TO TACKLE THEM


What are guesstimates and why
do we need to know?

- E ST I M AT E T H E N U M B E R O F B U RG E R S A M C D O N A L D ’ S O UT L E T S E L L S I N A DAY.

- E ST I M AT E T H E F L E E T S I Z E O F A I R I N D I A .
A Basic Guideline
▪ Ask preliminary questions.

▪ Formulate an approach to the problem.

▪ Think out loud.

▪ Tackle each part of the formula individually.

▪ Sanity Check.
Approaches to Estimate the Values
• Simple Math Approach
• E.g. What is the number of tennis balls that can fit into a Boeing 747.

• Per Capita Approach


• E.g. Estimate the number of hours AC is run in Delhi in a year.

• Supply/Production Side
• E.g. How much revenue does a petrol pump generate in Delhi in a year.

• Demand/Consumption Side
• E.g. Estimate the number of cars sold by Maruti in India.
Example #1 – Guesstimate the
Area of India
Area of a rhombus = (product of diagonals/2)
Distance = Speed x Time
Speed of Plane = ~700 km/hr
Jammu to Kanyakumari by plane: 5 hours
Distance = 700 x 5 = 3500 km
Gujarat to Arunachal Pradesh by plane: 3 hours
Distance = 700 x 3 = 2100 km
Therefore, area of India = (3500 x 2100)/2 = 3,675,000 km sq.
Actual area of India = 3,287,263 km sq.
Example #2- Estimate the daily
number of passengers at Delhi airport
There are 3 runways at Delhi airport. Let time per takeoff/landing be 4 minutes.
Each runway can handle 60/4 = 15 flights per hour. 3 runways can handle 15*3= 45 flights/hour
1) 2) Flight type
Efficiency

(12 am-6 am) (6 am-6 pm) (6 pm-12 am) Domestic International


60%*45*6 = 100%*45*12 = 80%*45*6 =
162 540 216 80%*180 20%*400
seats*75% seats*75%
occupancy = 97200 occupancy = 54000

Total = 918 ~ 900 flights/day Total = 151200 passengers/day


Tips
▪ Always listen to the interviewer for prompts.
▪ Try not to make too many mathematical mistakes.
▪ Explain everything you do to the interviewer.
▪ Write everything down in a neat and ordered manner on the paper provided.
▪ Don’t be afraid to approximate some values based on previous knowledge.
▪ Always conduct a sanity check.
▪ Don’t rush into the problem. Methodically think it through.
▪ Remember: The goal is not to reach the right answer, the interviewer is more focused on the approach.
Imp Facts and Figures to Know
▪ Population of the world: 7.8 billion (~8 billion)

▪ Population of India: 1.3 billion (1.25 billion)


▪ Population of Delhi: 20 million
▪ Population of Mumbai: 20 million

▪ Average household size of India: 5

▪ Gender ratio in India: 50-50

▪ Rural Urban Divide: 70-30


Imp Facts and Figures to Know
Age
Brackets

(0-14) (15-35) (35-60) (60+)


30% 40% 25% 5%

Income
Groups

BPL Lower Middle Upper Middle High


10% 40% 30% 20%
Thank You!
Questions?

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