8/17/2021 Unbelievable!

5 Practical (and Easy) Steps to Develop a Theory of Change

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So after reading my last article you have a good understanding of what a Theory of
Change (TOC) is and a fair idea of what a TOC should look like. You are now
interested in developing your own TOC.
Qualitative Research
However, where do you start?

In this article I will share practical steps and tips for designing a TOC for your
organisation or programme. Please know that there is no ‘one way’ to go about this
and the contents of this article are based on my own experience of what worked
Recruitment of Focus
well (and not so well) for me in the past. I will also use the ‘Project Superwoman’ as Group Participants
an example throughout this article.

Before you begin, please bear in mind that developing a TOC is a participatory and
collaborative process. One that involves all the stakeholders and not just the
programme staff (or even worse one person!) sitting in the Head Office to draft a
TOC. Stakeholders that could be included in the process are the potential
beneficiaries of the initiative, the programme implementers and other persons who Spotting the
Difference: Activity,
possess expertise or knowledge in the area that the TOC will address.
Output and Outcome

Secondly, the process to develop a TOC should ideally be a facilitated group

discussion with the above-mentioned stakeholders. In other words, e-mailing
documents back and forth and Skype calls at the beginning of the process is an
absolute no-no. Focus Groups:
Questioning Strategy

My recommendation is just to organise a whole day retreat somewhere out of the

office to get away from distractions such as ringing telephones and to get the
‘creative juices’ flowing.
Easy Peasy: How To
Write Better Training
Once you have all the stakeholders holed up in a secluded cabin somewhere Objectives
(hopefully not against their will) the steps to developing the TOC are as follows.

Step 1: Identify a long-term goal

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8/17/2021 Unbelievable! 5 Practical (and Easy) Steps to Develop a Theory of Change
In this step the group discuss, agree on and get specific about the long term Monitoring and
goal(s). It is important that there is consensus among all the participants on a good, Evaluation…
clear outcome. Agreement on a clear goal is vital as the entire TOC hinges on this
long term goal. You can have more than one goal but I recommend no more than
three (I learnt this the hard way when a TOC I developed became unwieldy with too
many goals). For Project Superwoman the Goal was: Things You Should
Know Before
Becoming a…

How To Give Your

Audience An
Immersive…

5 Ways To Enhance
Your Monitoring and
Step 2: Conduct ‘backward mapping’ to identify the preconditions necessary to Evaluation (M&E)…
achieve that goal

Once this goal has been identified the participants then ask themselves what
preconditions need to exist in order for this goal to be achieved. In the case of this
project, three preconditions were identified.

From the participants’ experience

and research, they figure that in
order for the women to have ‘Long
Term Employment’ survivors need
to:

1.Attain coping skills

2. Survivors need to have

marketable skills in non-traditional
jobs and

3.Survivors know and have

appropriate workplace behaviour.

During this step the participants will also clarify the assumptions and justifications
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for the preconditions.

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8/17/2021 Unbelievable! 5 Practical (and Easy) Steps to Develop a Theory of Change

For the Goal: ‘Long Term Employment at Liveable Wages for Domestic Violence
Survivors’ an assumptions was:

Assumption A: Jobs in non-traditional areas of work for women, such as electrical,

plumbing, carpentry and building management are more likely to pay liveable
wages and are more likely to be unionized and provide job security. Some of these
jobs also provide a ladder of upward mobility, from apprenticeship to master, giving
entry-level employees a career future.

Assumption B: Although this

assumption was not specified in
‘Project Superwoman’, I think that
another assumption could be that
employers are willing to hire
women in jobs that are traditionally
carried out by men. That is,
employers (and their customers)
are ok with an electrician who is a
woman.

For the precondition/outcome

‘Survivors attain coping skills’ the
assumption was:

Assumption C: Women who have been abused need more than just skills, they need
to be emotionally ready for work as well. This s assumption clarifies why and how
the Superwoman project was different from traditional job-training programmes, i.e.,
the special psychological supports needed for the initiative’s clients.

For the precondition/outcome ‘Survivors have marketable skills in non-traditional

jobs’,

Assumption D: Women can learn non-traditional skills and compete in the

marketplace

The assumptions are captured in the TOC below by the letters of the alphabet.

The process of the backwards mapping and connecting the outcomes (with the
underlying assumptions) continues until there is a framework that tells the entire
story.
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Step 3: Identify the interventions

With the change framework now visually represented (with all the connections
between the outcomes/preconditions identified), the group should now focus on the
interventions. Interventions are the activities that the programme will engage in to
bring about the change.

The interventions explain what the stakeholders are going to do to achieve their
desired outcomes. In Project Superwoman the following interventions were
identified.

See the interventions visually represented in the TOC below.

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Based on the first intervention, an

outreach campaign is necessary to
publicise the programme for the
women to hear about it and the
second intervention is a screening
to ensure that the right target
population (women who are the
victims of violence) are the ones to
actually be allowed into the
programme.

Step 4: Develop indicators for each outcome/precondition in the TOC

This step focuses on how to measure the implementation and effectiveness of the
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initiative. Please see my other articles on how to develop indicators.

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8/17/2021 Unbelievable! 5 Practical (and Easy) Steps to Develop a Theory of Change

Step 5: Writing the Narrative

This is the final step and is the text

that accompanies the visual part of
the TOC. This narrative is a meta
description of the programme. A
good narrative sums up the
initiative’s story. It starts from the
beginning with the background and
goals explaining why they are
important and how the initiative’s
work achieves the goals.

It is not expected that a final TOC is produced at the end of the workshop. What
usually happens is that the facilitator of the group discussion takes photos of all the
sticky notes and chart papers from the day.

These photos are then used to

inform the content of the final TOC.
MS Power Point, MS Word,
MS Excel or a special software can
be used to give the TOC its final
shape and look.

It is at this stage that the e-mailing

and Skyping make take place to
expand and edit the TOC before its
finalisation.
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8/17/2021 Unbelievable! 5 Practical (and Easy) Steps to Develop a Theory of Change

Once you have developed your TOC it should be evaluated against the following
criteria.

The TOC should be plausible: Does common sense or prior evidence

suggests that the activities, if implemented, will lead to desired results?

The TOC should be agreed upon:Is there reasonable agreement among the
stakeholders with the theory of change as postulated?
The TOC should be embedded: Is the theory of change embedded in a
broader social and economic context, where other factors and risks likely to
influence the desired results are identified?
The TOC should be testable: Is the theory of change specific enough to
measure its assumptions in credible and useful ways?

The TOC should be feasible: Are the set of interventions feasible to

implement given the available resources?

So to Recap...

Lastly, as I am a big fan of simplicity and being clear, I advise you to not ‘over-
complicate’ your TOC. Some persons want to include every possible change, every
aspect of the broader socio-economic context, 50 assumptions and 100 indicators
for the TOC. This is not necessary. Nor should you get carried away with the fancy
design elements (I have seen TOCs shaped like houses and birds, see this article
for inspiration) at the expense of a robust TOC.

The TOC should be easily understood at a glance and more than all it should make
logical sense. Additionally, your TOC is not a static document and should be
reviewed periodically for continued relevance throughout the implementation of your
programme.

Good luck with developing your TOC. Let's Chat!

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8/17/2021 Unbelievable! 5 Practical (and Easy) Steps to Develop a Theory of Change

Do you need help in developing your Theory of Change? Then get in touch with
me.

References:

ActKnowledge ad the Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change (2004) .

'Guided Example: Project Superwoman

Anderson, A.C. Kubisch & J.P. Connell (Eds) New Approaches to Evaluating
Community Initiatives. Volume 2: Theory, measurement and analysis (Queenstown,
The Aspen Institute).

Connell, J.P. & Kubisch, A.C. (1998) Applying a theory of change approach to the
evaluation of comprehensive community initiatives: progress, prospects and
problems in: K. Fulbright

Tags:

Theory of Change

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