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IUE - MATH 240 - Probability For Engineers: Midterm Exam II - May 12, 2015 - 18:30 - 19:50

This document contains the solutions to 5 questions from a probability exam. Question 1 involves calculating probabilities for an exponential distribution. Question 2 deals with a uniform distribution and finding proportions and variance. Question 3 looks at a Poisson process and calculating time probabilities. Question 4 examines a normal distribution and finding failure probabilities for lasers. Question 5 uses a binomial approximation to find component failure probabilities.

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95 views3 pages

IUE - MATH 240 - Probability For Engineers: Midterm Exam II - May 12, 2015 - 18:30 - 19:50

This document contains the solutions to 5 questions from a probability exam. Question 1 involves calculating probabilities for an exponential distribution. Question 2 deals with a uniform distribution and finding proportions and variance. Question 3 looks at a Poisson process and calculating time probabilities. Question 4 examines a normal distribution and finding failure probabilities for lasers. Question 5 uses a binomial approximation to find component failure probabilities.

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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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IUE – MATH 240 – Probability for Engineers

Midterm Exam II — May 12, 2015 — 18:30 – 19:50

Name Surname : KEY

Question 1. Suppose that f (x) = 3e−3x for 0 < x. Determine the following:
a) P (2 < X)
b) P (1 < X < 3)
c) Determine x such that P (X ≤ x) = 0.10.

Solution:
a) Z ∞
P (2 < X) = 1 − P (X ≤ 2) = 3e−3x dx = e−3(2) = e−6
2
b)
Z 3
P (1 < X < 3) = 3e−3x dx = e−3 − e−9
1
c)
ln(0.9)
P (X ≤ x) = 0.10 ⇒ 1 − e−3x = 0.1 ⇒ x = −
3

Question 2. The thickness of a flange on an aircraft component is uniformly distributed


between 0.90 and 1.10 millimeters.
a) Determine the cumulative distribution function of flange thickness.
b) Determine the proportion of flanges that exceeds 1.05 millimeters.
c) Compute the variance of the thickness of flanges.
d) What thickness is exceeded by 80% of the flanges?

Solution:
Let X denote the thickness of flange in millimeters. Then X is uniform over [0.9, 1.1],
and its pdf is
1
f (x) = = 5 for 0.9 ≤ x ≤ 1.1
1.1 − 0.9
a) Z x Z x
F (x) = f (t)dt = 5dt = 5(x − 0.9) for 0.9 ≤ x ≤ 1.1
0.9 0.9
b)
P (X > 1.05) = 1 − P (X ≤ 1.05) = 1 − 5(1.05 − 0.90) = 1 − 0.75 = 0.25
c)
1.1
1.1
5x3
Z
2 2 2 5
(1.1)3 − (0.9)3 − 1

V ar(X) = E(X ) − [E(X)] = 5x dx − 1 = −1=
0.9 3 0.9
3
d)
P (x < X) = 0.80 ⇒ 1 − P (X ≤ x) = 0.80
5(x − 0.9) = 0.2 ⇒ x = 0.94
Question 3. Suppose that the log-ons to a computer network follow a Poisson process
with an average of five counts per minute.
a) What is the mean time between log-ons?
b) Determine the probability density and cumulative distribution functions for the time
between log-ons?
c) Determine x such that the probability that at least one log-on occurs before time x
minutes is 0.95.
d) What is the probability that more than 20 log-ons occur in 5 minutes?

Solution:
Here, we have a Poisson process with parameter λ = 5 log-ons per minute.
a) Let T denote the time until the next log-on. Then T is an exponential random variable
and its mean is
1
E(T ) =
5
b) The probability density function and cumulative distribution functions are
f (t) = 5e−5t , t ≥ 0
F (t) = 1 − e−5t , t ≥ 0
c)
ln(0.05)
P (T ≤ x) = 0.95 ⇒ 1 − e−5x = 0.95 ⇒ x = −
5
d) Let X denote the number of log-ons in 20 minutes. Then X is Poisson with λ = 25.
20 −25
X e (25)x
P (X > 20) = 1 − P (X ≤ 20) = 1 − = 0.815
x!
x=0

or, since λ = 25 > 5,


 
20.5 − 25
P (X > 20) = 1 − P (X ≤ 20) ∼
=1−P Z≤ √
25
= 1 − P (Z ≤ −0.9) = P (Z ≤ 0.9) = 0.816

Question 4. The life of a semiconductor laser at a constant power is normally distributed


with a mean of 7000 hours and a standard deviation of 600 hours.
a) What is the probability that a laser fails before 6000 hours?
b) What is the life in hours that 95% of the lasers exceed?
c) If three lasers are used in a product and they are assumed to fail independently, what
is the probability that all three are still operating after 7000 hours?

Solution:
Let X denote the life (in hours) of this semiconductor laser. Then X is normal with
µ = 7000 and σ = 600.
a)
 
6000 − 7000
P (X < 6000) = P Z ≤ = P (Z ≤ −1.67) = 0.047
600
b) Find x such that P (X > x) = 0.95 or equivalently P (X ≤ x) = 0.05.
 
x − 7000 x − 7000
P (X ≤ x) = P Z ≤ = 0.05 ⇒ = −1.65
600 600
Therefore, x = 6010.
c) If we define p = P (X > 7000) = 0.5, then by independence of the failures
P (All 3 lasers still operate) = p3 = 1/8
Question 5. An electronic office product contains 1000 electronic components. Assume
that the probability that each component operates without failure during the useful life
of the product is 0.9, and assume that the components fail independently. Approximate
the probability that more than 910 of the original components fail during the useful life
of the product.

Solution:
The number of failed electronic components X is a binomial random variable with
parameters n = 1000 and p = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1. Therefore, using the normal approximation
to binomial
P (X > 910) = 1 − P (X ≤ 910) = 1 − P (X ≤ 910.5)
!
∼ 910.5 − 1000(0.1)
=1−P Z ≤ p = 1 − P (Z ≤ 85.43) = 1 − 1 = 0
1000(0.1)(0.9)

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