Recipe For Indices and Forex Investing
Recipe For Indices and Forex Investing
FOR
FOREX & INDICES
INVESTING
R.B NTHULANE
RECIPE
FOR
FOREX & INDICES
INVESTING
Contents
Introduction
PART 1
Indices and Forex ..........................................3
PART 2
Old and new way of doing things ...................8
Principles .......................................................14
PART 3
Fundamentals ................................................20
Analysis for Forex ..........................................27
Analysis for Indices .......................................43
PART 4
Market Sentiment ..........................................62
Let’s Trade .....................................................69
Frequently Asked Questions ..........................77
INTRODUCTION
I believe all traders, new or old who apply the principles
of this book will save themselves a lot of money and time.
I have had the privilege to finally find something that
works after going up and down. I finally managed to crack
the code and turn from being a speculative trader to
being a trader who is at least 80% sure that his trades will
yield good profits. With the advancement of technology
and internet information that is all over the place, it makes
it really difficult to come back with one single strategy
that will sort you out for life. What I will be breaking down
in this book might not be entirely new to some of you but I
am going to combine everything and give you one single
system that works, saving you time and money at the
same time helping you to be profitable.
The system I present in this book came from careful
observations that I underwent with my brothers as we
were busy with a trial-and-error method of learning,
blowing account after account. Blowing accounts is part of
the journey but it doesn’t end there. To those that haven’t
been part of the 90% of traders who don’t make profit
good for you. On the other hand you might not be part
of the stats at all, given that you follow the principles of
this book and to those who are part of the stat it is time to
switch.
PART 1
7
CHAPTER 2
THE OLD AND THE NEW WAY OF DOING THINGS
Besides not having a solid winning system/strategy that
just works, there’s a lot that is common among the 90% of
people who don’t make it in the markets and again there’s
a lot that is among the 10% that make it in the markets. If
you are part of the 90%, you simply have to let go of the
old way of doing things and start doing it the new way. In
the markets there are principles that lead to success, and
only those that go by these priniples, they are the ones
that are successful. I have blown too many accounts in my
learning, so I have learnt how to do things right. You might
have not blown an account or accounts and you don’t
have to first blow accounts to make it, all you have to do is
follow what I am going to outline in this chapter.
In a world of social media many of us came to know about
trading from people who claim to be living a good life
from trading, and those people would often post a lot of
good profits on Facebook, Instagram or twitter. We might
have not given in immediately but because those good
profits were popping up infront of our faces every time
we log on to social networks, we finally gave in and that’s
why we are here today. But little did we know that what
we have been consistently seeing on social networks was
building up a path to failing in the markets in our minds.
Why am I saying this? When we finally got our hands on
trading platforms we already wanted to make as much
as what we had being seeing on social networks, and the
reason behind that is nothing more than the path that was
Copy rights © 2017 r.b. Nthulane 8
being built over time. We also wanted to post those big
profits on social media, we also wanted to make as much
money as what others are making on social networks.
The lot sizes we were seeing on their posts gave us a
clue of how to make those huge profits but little did we
know that it was a road to blowing our accounts. We learnt
the wrong way of doing things by just scrolling past and
perhaps pausing for 3 seconds on that post with good
profits. 99% of the time we didn’t even get to see how
big that person’s account was or if it is a real account or
not and how many losses he encountered before finally
getting something to show us on social media. But all
we saw was that with 10 lots we can make $500 profits, it
is doable, we have seen it too many times from XYZ on
social networks.
We would often get to see some people’s analysis and
guess what, oh yes I see how they do it, its the indicators
I read about on Google or any other site. Yes I remember
that one, I watched a Youtube video explaining how
it works. We then went on to do it by ourselves and it
worked once, worked again and again oh wow it works
my account is double then the next moment the account
is blown. That’s just how it would often go with indicators,
they sometimes worked and the moment they didn’t work
it was a bad day, credit cards must come out because
we have to deposit funds again. And all this happened
because we trusted on indicators, and indicators simply
don’t work in the markets if they worked we would have at
least 60% success in the markets, the 40% would have to
fail because they perhaps don’t have the right indicators
or they are getting it wrong psychologically. There’s a
lot of other things we have encountered in the forex and
indices trading journey.
ENTERING A TRADE
When to enter
With price action there is no perfect formula for when to
enter but we enter at our support and resistance, there is
Copy rights © 2017 r.b. Nthulane 18
no perfect signal that will tell us that indeed the change
in direction is about to occur. One thing we surely know
is that the price will eventually turn there, sometimes it
is immediate and sometimes we get a consolidation at
the entry point but with patience the change in direction
eventually occurs. Investing involves taking risks but
we take calculated risks when we enter at our major
supports and resistances because 90% of the time the
price will turn there as long as there is no solid sentiment
around that pair or currency. Yes not all trades will go
right but trading this way will leave you with an 80-90%
accuracy. Some may say candle sticks patterns, I am not
against them but I have come to realize that they are not
always there and you can miss out on your entry point
while waiting for them, so the best is to risk that 4-5% of
your balance knowing that you stand up to 90% chance
of coming back with a smile after a few days. Price may
consolidate at the support or resistance and your trade
just alternates between profit and loss, this is where you
put your feet down and patiently wait, it happens a lot, I
have seen it a lot but it yields good profit at the end of the
week.
• Employment Changes
• Political Events
There is no country whose economy is not linked to its
politics. Political events help investors decide on whether
they should invest or pull of a country. Decisions and
policies put in place by a government have a direct
influence on the economy. When a new president wins
in elections in most cases it is positive for that country’s
currency and we should look into buying. You should
not neglect political events in your decision making
because they contribute to the sentiment of that country’s
economy.
• Other Events
Indices react to world events such as natural disasters,
wars, political unrest and economic news. It is important
to follow economic data such as unemployment rates,
interest rates and GDP figures.
US indices including NIKKEI often rise with the strength
in the U.S. dollar this is because most of the companies
there report their profits in U.S. dollar. NIKKEI often has
the same moves as USDJPY. So positive market sentiment
for the U.S. dollar gives us a positive market sentiment for
the US indices and because of this we should be buying
and not selling those indices. Those indices are S&P500,
Dow Jones and NASDAQ. The AUS200 moves just like
US indices, positive sentiment in the Australian dollar
brings a positive sentiment to the AU200, at such times
the economy is healthy and businesses are doing well.
The opposite does not always mean that the indices will
perform bad too, businesses can still operate and make
profit in a country which is under a bit of shaking. Always
perform careful analysis of the relevant factors before
trading.
With the Dax/Germany 30 we often find that the index
does the opposite of the EUR and this is because many
companies in the Dax trade outside of Germany. A weak
economy can often be good for them since they can
remain untouched from the outside countries in which
they operate. This index also responds to economic
data released in Germany. You often find that on a quiet
day for the EUR, the Dax had great moves and this
being a result of economic data released in Germany.
In addition when the data was positive it is also positive
for the index and when the data was negative it is also
There is nothing new here, the entry points are still at our
magical numbers. The beautiful entry point at number 1
just proves to us that after we are in the trade we should
patiently wait and only from that will we reap from our
investment. The price played at that entry point for a
good two weeks, waiting on that trade for two weeks is
way better than opening 50 more trades in two weeks
but with the account only coming back to where it was or
below. Number 2 is a case of a resistance that has turned
into a support, this had presented a buying opportunity.
And there was also a great consolidation that occurred
before the price rose up to the new resistance. By now
you should understand the importance of patience
and treating this like an investment. Look at all the
consolidations that happen at the entry points.
Copy rights © 2017 r.b. Nthulane 56
Look at more examples below
61
CHAPTER 7
Market Sentiment
From the CADJPY chart above you can see the bullish
trend running within the trend line. The market sentiment
here was made to continue because the Bank of Canada
had signaled that they are going to raise the interest rate,
by just this we saw the CAD being bullish for days until
they actually raised the interest rate. After raising the
interest rate, the bullish market sentiment was just made
stronger and we saw CADJPY going all the way to the
major resistance. If you look above you will see that price
is currently consolidating within that resistance. The point
I want you to take here is that fundamentals make market
sentiment and if you don’t follow the sentiment you stand
a higher chance of not making it.
Copy rights © 2017 r.b. Nthulane 64
The same effect was seen on USDCAD above. There are
many other examples that I can show you, in fact if we
go to 70% of the trends and see the reason behind them,
we will find that there was something behind the market
sentiment. The examples for this are infinity. Do not
ignore this fact while trading.
From the US3O chart above you can see that indeed the
overall trend of indices is bullish because companies aim
to improve daily. Although let’s focus on the last month,
you can see that the market sentiment here was extremely
bullish. Everyday the index was closing at a new high. The
reason behind this was the hype behind technological
stocks, everyone was going for technological stocks. It
was all over the news and the internet. You see again the
hype created a bullish market sentiment, all you do in this
case is hold your trades and just trail with a stop loss.