Art1full Purchasing Power Parity
Art1full Purchasing Power Parity
I
Michelle A. Vachris magine you are planning a trip to France and using exchange rates to convert them into a
and and would like to figure out how much cur- single currency would not yield an accurate com-
James Thomas rency you will need during your visit. You parison. Again, the comparison based on ex-
would need to know how much in French francs change rates does not take into account differ-
it would cost for incidentals such as meals, ing prices among the countries.
sightseeing, and souvenirs. What information In each of these scenarios, analysts could con-
would be helpful to you in making your estimate? struct better estimates if they convert the data
You could check the price of, say, a lunch in your into a common currency and value it at the same
hometown and then convert that figure into francs price levels. In September 1998, the Organisa-
using the exchange rate. This type of estimate tion for Economic Co-operation and Develop-
would not be very accurate, however, because it ment (OECD) released price level data and mea-
is likely that a lunch in your hometown costs rela- sures for 1996 as a part of the Eurostat-OECD
tively more or less than a lunch in France. A bet- purchasing power parity ( PPP ) program.
ter estimate would be based on the price of a lunch (Eurostat is the statistical office of the European
in France. Union.) The purpose of this program is to com-
Similarly, if you were opening a subsidiary pare economic data across countries without
company in Japan, how would you determine the using exchange rates. As illustrated in the pre-
salaries for your employees? Again, using the ex- vious scenarios, exchange rates do not neces-
change rate to convert the salary you would pay sarily reflect the relative purchasing powers of
in the United States into yen would not be accu- the different currencies and applying them can
Michelle A. Vachris rate. To adequately compensate employees mov- produce inaccurate comparisons. To accurately
is an associate professor ing overseas, you would need information about compare GDP data across countries, one must ex-
of economics at
Christopher Newport the cost of living in Japan. press the data in a common currency and value
University and Finally, if a government or international orga- it at the same price level. These problems are
James Thomas is a
senior economist nization were comparing national expenditures similar to those encountered in comparisons of
in the Office of Prices across different countries, merely collecting the GDP across time for one country. Of course in
and Living Conditions,
Bureau of Labor Statistics. gross domestic products (GDPs) of the countries the case of comparison across time, the data are
already expressed in one national currency, but the figures must ket of goods and services with the expenditure patterns in the
accommodate changes in the price level for the comparisons country determining the items selected. Likewise, to calculate
to have any meaning. Purchasing power parities are estimates PPPs, one needs to price a representative basket of goods and
derived from the relative price levels in different countries and services across countries. In the interspatial case, however, this
reflect the rate at which currencies can be converted to pur- becomes difficult to implement, as the different countries can
chase equivalent goods and services. Therefore, a PPP is the have very different expenditure patterns. The availability of
rate of currency conversion that equalizes purchasing power common representative products is dependent on the number
of different currencies and so has the dimensions of an ex- of countries, the extent to which their markets and expenditure
change rate as well as a price index. PPPs are preferable to patterns are similar, and the type of specification used to de-
exchange rates for converting national expenditure data into a fine selected products. Even between economies as similar as
common currency because they also adjust for differences in the United States and Canada, there remain important differ-
price levels and reflect only differences in the volume of goods ences in expenditure patterns due to differences in climate,
and services purchased between countries. tastes, packaging, regulations, and the like. Therefore, the ini-
International organizations involved with multilateral com- tial groundwork for calculating PPPs is to determine a list of
parisons of real GDP and its components increasingly base such goods and services and their detailed specifications for pric-
comparisons on PPPs.1 The European Commission also uses ing by each country. The final lists for the 1996 comparison
PPPs to determine funding levels, as well as to adjust staff sala- contained both traded and nontraded goods and services that
ries. Moreover, two recent reports analyzed the strengths and covered around 4,000 items, including about 2,900 consumer
weaknesses of the PPP programs.2 Independently, both came goods and services; 800 pharmaceuticals; 186 capital goods;
to the same conclusion, reaffirming the importance of using 50 motor vehicles; 34 government, education, and health ser-
PPPs for real multilateral comparisons of GDP and related ag- vices; and 20 construction projects.
gregates. The second component needed to calculate purchasing
Historically, the first comprehensive investigation of the power parities is the expenditure patterns for the participating
relative value of money in different countries was published in countries. These figures, expressed in national currencies, are
1940 by Colin Clark. This study compared the purchasing derived from the national accounting data for each country.
power of many currencies across a range of consumption goods. The classification system that provides the framework for the
In the early 1950s, Irving Kravis and Milton Gilbert, at the calculations is the 1968 System of National Accounts and the
Organization of the European Economic Community (prede- 1979 European System of Economic Accounts. The defini-
cessor to the OECD), used national accounts data to compare tion of expenditure starts at the basic heading level, which in-
national incomes of four western European countries and the cludes a group of similar commodities that are representative
United States. The methodology they developed was further of the purchases made in participating countries for which a
refined in benchmark studies for 1970, 1973, and 1975.3 In sample of detailed item specifications can be determined.
the early 1980s, the Eurostat-OECD PPP program was later es- Eurostat had 270 basic headings, while the OECD had 218. The
tablished independently, with its own methodology, timetable, difference between the two headings was attributed to the cat-
and mission to compare national incomes and price levels for egory, household final consumption expenditures; otherwise,
the European Union and OECD member countries. Benchmark the breakdowns were the same.
studies were published under this program for 1980, 1985, Once the detailed specifications of goods and services have
1990, and 1993. been defined within the expenditure categories, each partici-
This article analyzes the 1996 Eurostat-OECD purchasing pating country provides national average prices for as many of
power parities study, which covers 32 countries, including all the items as possible. Possibly, the most important issue in
of the current 29 member countries of the OECD, except one price selection is choosing identical products that are also im-
(Korea), plus four additional countries (Israel, Russian Fed- portant in terms of expenditure patterns. These prices, ex-
eration, Slovak Republic and Slovenia). pressed in national currencies, are for the most part, transac-
tion prices, although in some cases, list prices are used as a
Methodology proxy. Many of the countries perform special pricing surveys
to meet the requirements of the program; however, the United
Purchasing power parities measure relative price level differ- States primarily provides prices calculated from data already
ences for one time period across countries. In that respect, collected by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price
PPPs can be thought of as interspatial price indexes, and the Index (PPI) programs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not
methodology and data requirements belong to the methodol- do any special sampling for the OECD item specifications and,
ogy of index number theory. For example, to calculate as a result, the average prices provided are not the same as the
intertemporal price indexes used to measure price change for average price series produced by the CPI. Where possible, BLS
one country over time, one needs to price a representative bas- adjusts the underlying data from the CPI average price series to
United States
1
OECD
Australia
Canada
Czech Republic
Hungary
Iceland
Japan
Mexico
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Switzerland
Turkey
2
European Union
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
Israel
Russia
Russian Federation
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Chart 2. Gross domestic product of Japan, Germany, and Canada as percentages of U.S. GDP, 1970 97
Percent Japan Percent
80 80
70 Exchange rate 70
Purchasing power parity
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
70 Exchange rate 70
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
Table 4. Comparative price levels for final expenditure on gross domestic product at international prices
(OECD = 100)
Expenditure item Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Iceland Ireland
Private final consumption expenditure .............. 94 118 111 78 136 127 122 121 117 101
Food, beverages and tobacco ....................... 93 111 109 83 148 133 114 109 143 114
Clothing and footwear ................................... 104 125 142 100 134 149 145 134 145 112
Gross rent, fuel and power ............................ 103 105 113 84 118 112 129 141 79 78
Household equipment and operation ............ 103 112 108 74 117 109 116 116 113 102
Medical and health care ................................ 78 116 93 63 128 117 93 111 91 81
Transport and communication ....................... 90 139 118 89 158 139 126 124 116 124
Education, recreation and culture ................. 94 127 119 78 135 134 126 112 138 94
Miscellaneous goods and services ............... 97 130 110 65 167 143 137 122 143 119
Net purchases abroad .................................. 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Government final consumption expenditure ..... 88 125 111 90 128 111 121 145 83 90
Gross fixed capital formation ............................ 93 109 101 69 124 98 103 119 99 92
Construction ................................................. 81 114 107 61 131 82 100 126 101 84
Machinery and equipment ............................ 110 103 95 82 119 121 106 111 97 106
Increase in stocks ............................................. 117 133 128 93 160 155 135 133 149 127
Balance of exports and imports ........................ 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Gross domestic product ................................... 92 116 108 79 130 116 116 122 104 98
Euro-
Expenditure item Luxem- Nether- New Switzer- United United
Italy Japan Norway Sweden pean
bourg lands Zealand land Kindom States
Union1
1
Currently, there are 15 countries in the European Union: den, and the United Kingdom.
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Swe- N OTE : Data are from OECD.
levels, the PPP approach obviously provides the proper basis government expenditures and 17.5 percent of its GDP on gross
for comparing living standards and examining productivity fixed capital formation; these figures are relatively low, com-
levels internationally over time. pared with the OECD as a whole. In terms of government spend-
PPPs also can be used to examine differences in the struc- ing per capita, Luxembourg, Germany, and Japan had the low-
ture of real expenditures across countries. Expenditure pat- est figures reported in the OECD (10.6 percent for Luxem-
terns for selected components of GDP are presented in table 3. bourg, 10.7 percent for Germany, and 10.9 percent for Ja-
To compute the structure of real expenditures, the data are pan). Predictably, government spending was higher among
converted to common currency using PPP, then the percent- the transition economies of Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Re-
ages are computed. More than two-thirds (70.1 percent) of public, Russia, and Hungary than that for the other participat-
the U.S. GDP is attributed to private consumption expendi- ing countries. Japan reported the highest level of private in-
tures, the second highest percentage of all of the participating vestment spending, by far, at 32.8 percent of GDP.
countries. The United States spent 12.4 percent of its GDP on In addition, the components of national expenditure have
3
Accounts and Main Economic Indicators, the OECD; and National Ac- These studies are published under the auspices of the United Na-
counts and Comparisons in Real Terms of the Aggregates of the Euro- tions Statistical Agencies, the University of Pennsylvania, Eurostat,
pean System of Economic Accounts, Eurostat. and the OECD . See Irving Kravis and Milton Gilbert An International
2
See Ian Castles, “Review of the OECD-Eurostat PPP Program” (Consult- comparison of National Products and the Purchasing Power Curren-
ant to the OECD, June 1997); and Jacob Ryten, “The evaluation of the cies (Organization for European Economic Cooperation, Paris, 1954).
International Comparison Project (ICP)” (Consultant to the International 4
Monetary Fund, Statistic Division of the Department of Economic and Gustav Cassell, “Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges,”
Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, and the World Bank, Economic Journal, December 1918, 413–15.
September 1998). 5
Catherine Mann, “Price, Profits, Profit Margains and Exchange rates,
“Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1986, pp. 366–79.