WK01-3.Spiganti MacroQEM Ramsey
WK01-3.Spiganti MacroQEM Ramsey
Alessandro Spiganti
Universitˋa Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
September 2021
Macroeconomics I
The Neoclassical Growth Model
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The Neoclassical Growth Model
- Not only a basic growth model, but also a workhorse model for many areas of
macroeconomics (growth, fluctuations, monetary policy, climate change, asset price,
distributional issues...)
- References: Romer (2019, Chapter 2A), Barro and Sala-I-Martin (1995, Chapter 2),
Acemoglu (2008, Chapter 5-8, advanced)
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Framework
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Production I
- The production side of the economy mirrors that of the Solow model
- Factors and product markets are competitive
- There is a large number of identical firm, allowing us to consider a representative firm
- Each firm produces according to
Y (t ) = F (K (t ), A(t )L(t ))
- Assumptions
- the production function exhibits diminishing marginal products in each factor and
constant returns to scale, and satisfies the Inada conditions
- A(t ) grows at rate g and L(t ) grows at rate n
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Production II
- Given the constant returns to scale assumption, we can write the production function
in intensive form
K (t )
y (t ) = F , 1 ≡ f (k (t )) (1)
A(t )L(t )
- y (t ) ≡ Y (t )/(A(t )L(t )) and k (t ) ≡ K (t )/(A(t )L(t )) are output and capital per
efficiency unit of labour
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Production III
- The representative firm employs labour and capital, pays them their marginal
products, and sells the resulting output
R (t ) = f 0 (k (t )) (2a)
ω (t ) = A(t ) f (k (t )) − k (t )f 0 (k (t ))
(2b)
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Production III
- The representative firm employs labour and capital, pays them their marginal
products, and sells the resulting output
R (t ) = f 0 (k (t )) (2a)
ω (t ) = A(t ) f (k (t )) − k (t )f 0 (k (t ))
(2b)
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Production III
- The representative firm employs labour and capital, pays them their marginal
products, and sells the resulting output
R (t ) = f 0 (k (t )) (2a)
ω (t ) = A(t ) f (k (t )) − k (t )f 0 (k (t ))
(2b)
r (t ) = R (t ) − δ = f 0 (k (t )) − δ (3)
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Households I
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Households I
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Households II
C (t ) ς (t )
c (t ) ≡ = (5)
A(t )L(t ) A(t )
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Households’ Utility I
- Each person has the instantaneous utility function u (ς), such that
- u 0 (ς) > 0
- u 00 (ς) < 0, i.e. agents prefer to smooth consumption
- it satisfies Inada-type conditions
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Households’ Utility I
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Households’ Utility II
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Households’ Utility II
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Households’ Utility II
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Households’ Utility II
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Households’ Supply of Labour
- Each adult supplies inelastically one unit of labour service per unit of time
- The wage income per adult person is ω (t )
- Total labour income of the household is ω (t )L(t )
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Households’ Assets I
- Households hold assets in the form of physical capital K (t ) and loans (bonds) B (t )
- The economy is closed, so households can only lend and borrow from other households
- In the absence of asymmetry and uncertainty, a no-arbitrage condition ensures that each
asset pays the same return r (t )
- Total asset income is
r (t ) (K (t ) + B (t )) ≡ r (t )A(t ) (7)
- Bonds will not actually be used in equilibrium, they are only added for pedagogical
reasons
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Households’ Assets II
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Households’ Assets III
- Let the household’s net assets per person be a(t ) ≡ A(t )/L(t ). This evolves
according to
A(t )
d L(t ) Ȧ(t )
ȧ(t ) = = − na(t ) (9)
dt L(t )
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Households’ Assets III
- Let the household’s net assets per person be a(t ) ≡ A(t )/L(t ). This evolves
according to
A(t )
d L(t ) Ȧ(t )
ȧ(t ) = = − na(t ) (9)
dt L(t )
- Combine (8) and (9) to get the budget constraint in per capita terms
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Households’ Assets IV
- This is not a proper budget constraint on the individual, as it does not rule out Ponzi
games
- The household can borrow to finance current consumption and then use future
borrowings to roll over the principal and pay all the interest
- Since no principal ever gets repaid, today’s consumption is free
- The household could borrow to finance an arbitrary high level of consumption in
perpetuity
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Households’ Assets V
- The infinite-horizon no Ponzi game condition is that the present value of assets must be
asymptotically non-negative
Z t
lim a(t ) exp − (r (s ) − n) ds ≥ 0 (11)
t →∞ 0
- In the long-run, a household’s debt per person cannot grow as fast as r (t ) − n, so that the
level of debt cannot grow as fast as r (t )
- However, asymptotically no individual would ever want to have positive wealth (they
would consume that instead), so that (11) holds with equality
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Definition of Equilibrium I
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Definition of Equilibrium II
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The Household’s Maximization Problem
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Household Maximization
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control I
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control I
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control I
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control I
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control I
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control II
H (a(t ), ς(t ), t, µ(t )) = e (n−ρ)t {u (ς(t )) + µ(t ) [ω (t ) + (r (t ) − n)a(t ) − ς(t )]} (13)
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control III
- Now consider an infinitesimal change in the paths of the control variable with a
corresponding change in the paths of the state variable
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control IV
- Step 2: Take the derivative of the Hamiltonian with respect to the control variable and
set it to zero
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control V
- Step 3: Take the derivative of the Hamiltonian with respect to the state variable and
set it equal to −λ̇
- Rearrange (16),
µ̇(t )
= −(r (t ) − ρ) (17)
µ (t )
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control VI
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Household Maximization: Optimal Control VII
- The intuitive explanation is that the value of the asset must be asymptotically 0
- Otherwise, something valuable would be left over
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Household Maximization: The Transversality Condition
- The quantity of assets per person does not grow asymptotically at a rate as high as r − n
- It would be suboptimal for households to accumulate positive assets forever, because
utility would increase if these assets were instead consumed in finite time
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Household Maximization: Recap
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Household Maximization: First-Order Conditions
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Household Maximization: First-Order Conditions
- Differentiate with respect to time, divide by µ(t ), and multiply LHS by ς(t )/ς(t )
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Household Maximization: First-Order Conditions
- Differentiate with respect to time, divide by µ(t ), and multiply LHS by ς(t )/ς(t )
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Household Maximization: First-Order Conditions
- Differentiate with respect to time, divide by µ(t ), and multiply LHS by ς(t )/ς(t )
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Household Maximization: First-Order Conditions
- Differentiate with respect to time, divide by µ(t ), and multiply LHS by ς(t )/ς(t )
- The RHS is equal to −(r (t ) − ρ) by equation (17)
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Household Maximization: The Euler Equation I
ς̇(t ) −u 0 (ς(t ))
= (r (t ) − ρ) 00 (24)
ς (t ) u (ς(t )) ς(t )
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Household Maximization: The Euler Equation II
−u 0 (ς(t ))
ς̇(t )
= (r (t ) − ρ )
ς (t ) u 00 (ς(t )) ς(t )
| {z }
positive
- Consumption rises if the real return exceeds the rate at which the household
discounts future consumption
- It changes more the larger is the magnitude of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution
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Household Maximization: The Euler Equation III
−u 0 (ς(t ))
ς̇(t ) 1
=
ς (t ) r (t ) − ρ u 00 (ς(t )) ς(t )
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Household Maximization: Utility Function I
ς̇ −u 0 (ς(t ))
= (r − ρ) 00
ς u (ς(t )) ς(t )
- To find a steady state in which r (t ) and ς̇(t )/ς(t ) are constant, we need the
intertemporal elasticity of substitution to be constant
- A common functional form with this property is the constant intertemporal elasticity of
substitution (CIES) utility function
ς (t )1− θ − 1
u (ς(t )) = (25)
1−θ
- The elasticity of substitution for this utility function is the constant 1/θ, with θ > 0
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Household Maximization: Utility Function II
ς̇(t ) 1
= (r (t ) − ρ ) (26)
ς (t ) θ
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Get To Know Your Utility Function I
- We will often use this particular functional form for the utility function, known as
constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) or constant relative risk aversion
(CRRA) ( 1− θ
c −1
1− θ if θ 6= 1 and θ ≥ 0
u (c ) = (27)
ln(c ) if θ = 1
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Get To Know Your Utility Function I
- We will often use this particular functional form for the utility function, known as
constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) or constant relative risk aversion
(CRRA) ( 1− θ
c −1
1− θ if θ 6= 1 and θ ≥ 0
u (c ) = (27)
ln(c ) if θ = 1
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Get To Know Your Utility Function I
- We will often use this particular functional form for the utility function, known as
constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) or constant relative risk aversion
(CRRA) ( 1− θ
c −1
1− θ if θ 6= 1 and θ ≥ 0
u (c ) = (27)
ln(c ) if θ = 1
u 00 (c )c
− =θ
u 0 (c )
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Get To Know Your Utility Function II
- Suppose the utility function is separable, so that if we have two goods, c1 and c2 , total
utility is given by
U = u ( c1 ) + u ( c2 )
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Get To Know Your Utility Function II
- Suppose the utility function is separable, so that if we have two goods, c1 and c2 , total
utility is given by
U = u ( c1 ) + u ( c2 )
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Get To Know Your Utility Function II
- Suppose the utility function is separable, so that if we have two goods, c1 and c2 , total
utility is given by
U = u ( c1 ) + u ( c2 )
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Equilibrium
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Equilibrium I
R (t ) = f 0 (k (t ))
ω (t ) = A(t ) f (k (t )) − k (t )f 0 (k (t ))
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Equilibrium II
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Equilibrium II
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Equilibrium II
A(t ) K (t )
a (t ) ≡ = = k (t )A(t )
L(t ) L(t )
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Equilibrium II
A(t ) K (t )
a (t ) ≡ = = k (t )A(t )
L(t ) L(t )
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Equilibrium III
- Thus,
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Equilibrium III
- Thus,
k̇ (t ) = f (k (t )) − (δ + n + g ) k (t ) − c (t ) (29)
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Equilibrium IV
- In the Solow model, the evolution of c (t ) was determined by the constant savings rate
- Here, we know that ς(t ) grows in accordance with the Euler equation,
ς̇(t ) 1
= (r (t ) − ρ )
ς (t ) θ
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Equilibrium IV
- In the Solow model, the evolution of c (t ) was determined by the constant savings rate
- Here, we know that ς(t ) grows in accordance with the Euler equation,
ς̇(t ) 1
= (r (t ) − ρ )
ς (t ) θ
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Equilibrium IV
- In the Solow model, the evolution of c (t ) was determined by the constant savings rate
- Here, we know that ς(t ) grows in accordance with the Euler equation,
ς̇(t ) 1
= (r (t ) − ρ )
ς (t ) θ
- Therefore,
ċ (t ) 1
= f 0 (k (t )) − δ − ρ − gθ (30)
c (t ) θ
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Equilibrium IV
k̇ (t ) = f (k (t )) − (δ + n + g ) k (t ) − c (t )
ċ (t ) 1
= f 0 (k (t )) − δ − ρ − gθ
c (t ) θ
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Equilibrium: The Transversality Condition
f 0 (k ? ) − δ > n + g (32)
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The Dynamics of c (t )
ċ (t ) 1
= f 0 (k (t )) − δ − ρ − gθ
c (t ) θ
- In a steady-state ċ (t ) = 0, i.e.
f 0 (k ? ) = δ + ρ + gθ (33)
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The Dynamics of c (t ): Graph
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The Dynamics of c (t ): Graph
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The Dynamics of k (t )
k̇ (t ) = f (k (t )) − (δ + n + g ) k (t ) − c (t )
- In a steady-state k̇ = 0, i.e.
c (t ) = f (k (t )) − (δ + n + g ) k (t ) (34)
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The Dynamics of k (t ): Graph
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The Dynamics of k (t ): Graph
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The Dynamics of k (t ): Golden Rule
c (t ) = f (k (t )) − (δ + n + g ) k (t )
- c (t ) has a maximum at
f 0 (kgold ) = δ + n + g (35)
- Note that (32), (33), and (35) imply that k ? < kgold (modified golden rule)
- Inefficient oversaving cannot occur in the Ramsey world because the agents are
optimizing
- The optimizing agent saves less than to attain the golden rule value, because impatience
makes it not worthwhile to sacrifice more current consumption
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The Phase Diagram
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The Phase Diagram
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The Phase Diagram
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The Phase Diagram
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The Phase Diagram: Initial Condition and Saddle Path
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The Phase Diagram: Initial Condition and Saddle Path
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The Phase Diagram: Initial Condition and Saddle Path
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The Phase Diagram: Initial Condition and Saddle Path
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The Phase Diagram: Initial Condition and Saddle Path
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The Phase Diagram: Initial Condition and Saddle Path
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The Saddle Path: Existence and Uniqueness
- The dynamic equilibrium follows the stable saddle path towards the steady-state pair
(k ? , c ? )
- There is some critical value c (0), for a given k (0), for which the economy converges to
the steady state
- This path is the only one that satisfies all the first-order conditions, including the
transversality condition
- Other paths are not equilibria
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The Saddle Path: Existence and Uniqueness
- The dynamic equilibrium follows the stable saddle path towards the steady-state pair
(k ? , c ? )
- There is some critical value c (0), for a given k (0), for which the economy converges to
the steady state
- This path is the only one that satisfies all the first-order conditions, including the
transversality condition
- Other paths are not equilibria
- All trajectories satisfy the equations of motion for c and k
- But if the initial level of consumption is too high, c (t ) increases and eventually the capital
stock would reach zero: this violates feasibility
- And if the initial level of consumption is too low, c (t ) would eventually reach zero and
capital would accumulate, eventually violating the transversality condition
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The Saddle Path: Existence and Uniqueness
- The dynamic equilibrium follows the stable saddle path towards the steady-state pair
(k ? , c ? )
- There is some critical value c (0), for a given k (0), for which the economy converges to
the steady state
- This path is the only one that satisfies all the first-order conditions, including the
transversality condition
- Other paths are not equilibria
- All trajectories satisfy the equations of motion for c and k
- But if the initial level of consumption is too high, c (t ) increases and eventually the capital
stock would reach zero: this violates feasibility
- And if the initial level of consumption is too low, c (t ) would eventually reach zero and
capital would accumulate, eventually violating the transversality condition
- Whereas k (0) is given, the initial consumption per capita must jump to c (0) on the
stable arm, and then (k, c ) monotonically travels along this arm towards the steady
state
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The Steady State
- The behaviour of the economy once it has reached (k ? , c ? ) is the same as in Solow
- Capital, output, and consumption per unit of effective labour are constant
- Since y and c are constant, the savings rate (y − c )/y is also constant!
- Aggregate variables grow at n + g
- Output per worker and capital per worker grow at g
- Even with endogenous savings, growth in the effectiveness of labour remains the only
source of persistent growth in output per worker
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A Note on Efficiency
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Comparative Statics
An Example
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The Shape of the Saddle Path I
- The saddle path (or stable arm) expresses the equilibrium c ? as a function of k ?
- It is a policy function, expressing the optimal value of the control variable to the state
variable
- The equivalent in the Solow model was c ? = (1 − s )f (k ? )
- Its exact shape depends on the parameters of the model
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The Shape of the Saddle Path II
ċ (t ) 1
= f 0 (k (t )) − δ − ρ − gθ
c (t ) θ
- Consider, for example, the effect of θ on the shape of the stable arm
- High values of θ imply that households have a strong preference for smoothing
consumption over time (if they are poor, they will consume a lot)
- Low values of θ imply that households households are more willing to postpone
consumption in response to high rates of return
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The Shape of the Saddle Path III
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Comparative Dynamics I
ċ = 0 : f 0 (k ? ) = δ + ρ + gθ
k̇ = 0 : c (t ) = f (k (t )) − (δ + n + g ) k (t )
- θ enters the Euler equation but does not enter the law of motion for k , thus only the
locus for ċ = 0 is affected
- An increase in θ lowers the steady-value of k ? (remember that f 0 (k ) is decreasing)
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Comparative Dynamics IV
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Comparative Dynamics V
- Before the shock, the economy was in the old steady state
? (it’s a state)
- Immediately after the shock, k cannot change since it is given at k = kold
- However, c can change (it’s a control)
- c must jump up to the level implied by the new saddle path
- The economy then adjust towards the new steady state, (knew ? , c? )
new
?
- k gradually declines towards knew < k?
?
- c initially jumps up and then declines as well towards cnew < c?
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Comparative Dynamics VI - Zooming In
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Comparative Dynamics VII
- The levels of consumption and capital per efficiency unit of labour vary after the
shock
- Cross-country differences in income per capita could be due to differences in the
intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the discount rate, the depreciation rate, the
population growth rate, and the form of the production function
- Once the economy converges to the steady state, variables in efficiency unit of labour
are constant, c ? , k ? , y ? = f (k ? )
- Per capita variables grow at rate g
- Aggregate variables grow at rate n + g
- As in Solow, long run growth is determined exogenously by the growth rate of
labour-augmenting technological progress
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Conclusions
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The Ramsey Model: Recap
- The one-sector neoclassical growth model may be the most important model in
macroeconomics
- In the Solow model, the saving rate was exogenous
- The Ramsey model opens the black box of savings and capital accumulation by specifying
preferences for households
- Because preferences are explicitly stated, we can talk about efficiency and welfare
- It provides us with fundamental mathematical and conceptual tools
- Most importantly, the Ramsey model paves the way for further analysis of capital
accumulation, human capital investments, and endogenous technological change
- Technological progress is still exogenous
- We have no new insights on the sources of cross-country income differences and
economic growth
- We need more work!
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Bibliography I
Acemoglu, D. (2008), Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Barro, R., and X. Sala-I-Martin. (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw Hill, New York.
Romer, D. (2019), Advanced Macroeconomics, McGraw Hill, New York.