CVL 747 Assignment 1 - Report - Final
CVL 747 Assignment 1 - Report - Final
Fig 1: Road traffic deaths in India 1970 through 2018 (Source: Fig2: Cars and motorized two-(MTW) registered in India by
NCRB 2015 & Transport Research Wing, 2019) year 1950-2016. (Source: Transport Research Wing, 2018).
From Fig1 and Fig 2, we can conclude that the number of RTI increases with an increase in the vehicle number. Now,
Let's look at this from a different perspective. Till 2016, The number of cars and motorized two-wheelers (MTW)
registered in 2016 was 30.2 and 168.9 million, respectively. Assuming that 60% of the vehicles are still on the road,
India's vehicle ownership is around nine vehicles per 100 people. Now, let's compare it to other countries, as given in
table 1. We can see that despite having a low number of vehicle ownership, India has a high official fatality rate. It is
official data, and the actual number may be much higher. Countries like Australia and the UK have higher vehicle
ownership, but they have a shallow official fatality rate. So, The main reason for India's increase in RTI fatality rate
is the absence of coordinated and evidence-based policy to control the problem.
Traffic police records are the source of the government statistics related to RTI in India. The primary source of traffic
crash data in India is the annual report of the National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB, Ministry of Home Affairs) and
the report titled Road Accidents in India, by the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH). Both the reports
are based on the cases reported in the police stations. The FIR registered in police stations related to road crashes are
under the different sections of the Indian Penal Code and Motor Vehicle Act. Under these sections, the police
investigation procedure ensures that 80% or more of the cases get attributed to 'human error.' There is no place for
understanding crashes due to a host of factors, including the vehicle, road, and infrastructure design.
● REPORTING OF RTI CRASH DATA: The data providing the key information of the road traffic injuries are
reported by police stations, and the aggregated data from all police stations are registered into the National Crime
Record Bureau (NCRB). There is no such separate system of reporting the traffic crash data in India. These Police-
based statistics underreport road traffic deaths and injuries in many countries (Bhalla et al. 2014, WHO 2015, Rosman
and Knuiman 1994, Derriks and Mak 2007). It has usually been assumed that many injury cases may be taken to
private hospitals in India and not recorded by the police. Also, in the case of non-Fatal injuries, many people take
treatment at home or private practitioners. So, a small fraction of non-fatal injuries is reported in police records,
including the most developed countries. So, the extent of underreporting of deaths in India is not very well understood.
Two studies have estimated national road traffic deaths using data from India's Sample Registration System, Registrar
general. Dandona et al. (2020), as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, based on
verbal autopsy data, estimated the rate of deaths due to road injuries in each state from 1990 -2017. Their mean
estimate is for 2017 is 48% higher than the Government of India figure for the same year. Most of the fatal cases
happened in the crowded urban area, and those injured who died in the government hospitals are reported in the
official statistics; however, some fatal cases in rural areas and those involved in single-vehicle crashes may not get
reported. So, to solve this issue of underreporting satisfactorily, we should establish a system in which the recording
of traffic crashes is open to public scrutiny, and there should be a regular audit of the quality of the official statistics
of road traffic deaths. This report used only fatality data for study as the police record of non-fatality injuries is highly
unreliable.
● INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON: 2018 WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety provides two sets of road
traffic death statistics for every country (WHO, 2018). These are the official government data provided by each
country to WHO and estimates produced by WHO through statistical analysis of national health data (including vital
registration).
Fig 3: RTI fatality rate per 100,000 persons Fig 4: RTI fatality rate per 100,000 persons as
reported by different countries vs per capita estimated by WHO for different countries vs per
income. (Source: WHO, 2018). capita income. (Source: WHO, 2018).
The official country data and WHO estimates (Figures 3 and 4) show that countries with incomes similar to India
have RTI fatality rates lower than India. At the same time, many countries more prosperous than India have much
higher fatality rates. Therefore, we must learn from the countries with lower income levels and lower fatality rates.
India can place evidence-based national safety policies to ensure improvements in traffic safety.
Fig 5: Ratio of WHO estimates and official RTI fatality rate per 100,000
persons for different countries vs per capita income (Source: WHO, 2018)
Fig 5 shows that for 43% of the countries, the WHO estimates are 1.5 times more significant and 26% more than three
times greater than the official rates reported by the governments. The ratio of WHO estimate and the official data for
India is 2.0 as the official reported rate is 11.4 deaths per 100,000 persons and the WHO estimate 22.6. From fig 5,
we can find that the countries with similar or low levels of income than India have lower levels of underreporting.
Countries with higher income levels have had a higher level of underreporting. So, India can set up professionally
managed data collection systems that give a reasonably accurate estimate of RTI fatalities.
From 1970 to 2018 the variation in total number of RTI fatalities and fatalities per 100,000 persons in India. From
1970 to 2018 the total number of fatalities increased by 10 times with average annual compound growth rate
(AACGR) 0f 6%, and the fatality rate was increased by 4.3 times greater than in 1970 with AAGCR of 4%. From
figure1 we can observe that after 2010 the rate of growth of fatalities in India has decreased. The causes behind these
decrease in fatality growth rate is not known exactly. However, the downturn in the national economy has had an
impact on motor vehicle crash rate. Reductions in economy associated with decline in traffic volumes. The
reductions in traffic volumes results in less exposure of high-risk groups in traffic. Particularly the unemployment is
higher among young people compared to other age groups. The decrease in economy is also associated with cautious
road user behaviour, such as lower speed to save fuel, fewer holiday trips and less drinking and driving.
Figure 6: Total number of RTI fatalities and fatalities per 100,000 persons in India (Source: Transport Research
Wing 2019)
Based on future income growth Kopits and Cropper predicted that fatalities in India will continue to rise until 2042
before reaching a total of about 198,000 deaths and then begin to decline. Based on cyclically modulated risk
decay function model Koornstra predicts an earlier date of 2030 to start of decline in RTI fatalities in India.
Suppose if the average growth rate of 6% per year declines to nil by 2030, then we can expect about 200,000
fatalities in 2030 before we see a decrease in fatalities. Instituting additional road safety policies is the only way to
decrease RTI fatalities.
Figure 7 shows the total number of fatalities reported by MORTH (Transport Research Wing 2019),
Hsiao, M. et al. (2013), IIT Delhi and Dandona et al. (2020). The individual estimates are based on
different criteria such as Hsiao et al. estimates considered national representative mortality survey of
1.1 million homes in India which reported 122,000 RTI deaths, IIT Delhi considered police records
obtained from 8 cities and Dandona et al. considered verbal autopsy records. The total share of
fatalities by Indian official estimates (15%) are extremely low compared to Hsiao et.al. (37%)
estimates, IIT Delhi (33%) and Dandona et al. (35%) estimates, therefore, official estimates for
remaining all modes are also wrong. The large gap between MORTH estimates and individual
estimates may be due to wrong coding of victims’ status. Since the Dandona and Hsiao estimates are
based on verbal autopsies and statistical representative samples from households, it is likely that these
fatality estimates are close to the true fatalities. The IIT Delhi estimates are based on detailed analysis
of police reports from different cities. These police reports are based on official data, though the
sample is smaller, these estimates for pedestrian fatalities are similar to the Hsiao and Dandona
estimates. Compared with MORTH estimates the Individual research estimates are more reliable. In
this report the individual research estimates are used for the analysis.
Fatality Distribution by Age and Sex
Figure 8: RTI fatality distribution and population distribution by age in India and USA. (Source:
Transport Research Wing 2019 and National Centre for Statistics and Analysis 2015).
Figure3 shows the distribution of fatalities among different age groups in India and the USA. In India,
the share of fatalities of age group 18-59 is greater than their share in the total population and less for
the age group 0-18 years (1:5 of the population) and >59 years (1:1.4 of the population), while In
USA the share of fatalities in children <15 years have a much lower representation compared to their
proportion in total population (1:5.1) but remaining age groups have little higher fatality share.
The involvement of children in fatalities in India is lower than that in the USA. The causes behind this
lower child proportion in fatalities are not known exactly, when a large number of children walk,
cycle and travel in overloaded vehicles to school in India. The lower involvement of elderly people
(>59 years) may be due to the less exposure to the traffic in India than in the USA.
The ratio of female and male fatalities in India was 1:6.1 in the year 2018 and it was 1:2.4 in the USA
in the year 2013. Lower participation of females in employment in India is one of the reasons why
female fatality rate in India is lower than that in the USA. In recent years the participation rate of
females in formal work increases in India, so it is necessary to understand if any specific measures
have to be instituted to ensure women’s safety on the roads.
The figure shows the comparison of fatalities per 100,000 population for the year 2015 and 2018 in
the states and union territories. The highest fatality rates were recorded in Haryana (18.4), Tamil
Nadu (17.4), Karnataka (17.3), Chhattisgarh (17.3), Himachal Pradesh (16.8) and Punjab (16). From
this we can observe that the high fatality rates per hundred thousand persons states are not necessarily
the large states with high number of RTI fatalities. Six lowest rates per hundred thousand persons
were observed in the large states (with more than 1,000 deaths in 2018) West Bengal (6.1), Bihar
(6.3), Andhra Pradesh (8.4), Assam (8.9), Uttarakhand (9.6) and Uttar Pradesh (9.9).
Compared with the year 2015, In the year 2018 the total number of deaths has decreased by more than
10% in 5 states and union territories, 10% higher or lower in 16 states, and in 11 states deaths have
increased by more than 10%.
In the year 2018 the fatality rate per hundred thousand persons is increased in 15 states and union
territories and is reduced in 15 states and union territories.
It is known that the RTI fatality rates seem to be not influenced by location in the country, culture and
area of the states and union territories. It may be more influenced by the infrastructure availability,
vehicle modal shares, road design and enforcement.
Rather than giving much focus on motor vehicles related research as has been the practice up to now,
more attention will have to be given to street and highway designs and enforcement issues that have
much influence on vulnerable road user safety. The designs and policies currently being implemented
do not have much influence on improving road safety. So, this will require promoting research and
innovation towards street and highway designs and enforcement issues.
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Figure 9: Total number of fatalities per 100,000 by state and territory in 2015 and 2018 (Source:
Transport Research Wing 2019)
4. Urban Safety
Urban population in India accounts for around a third of the total population of the country, and it also
accounts for a similar share in the total fatal crashes that is 34% according to the MoRTH (Ministry of
Road Transport and Highways). It was stated in the report the fatality numbers in MoRTH report was
considered to be the most reliable amongst other similar reports, like NCRB (National Crime Records
Bureau), state / UT police reports and hospital records. The report also noted that the MoRTH and other
such reports only mentions urban fatal RTI (Road Traffic Injuries) in cities over a million population.
Additionally the vehicle fleet size is also reported for these cities. The report also cited that the city
population data was extrapolated from 2011 data.
In the report, the RTI data of 50 such cities was cited with the populations above 1 million (10 Lakh).
These account for all the major cities across different states and union territories of India, although there
by close inspection none of the cities mentioned are from predominantly mountainous/ hilly regions of
India (only exception being Srinagar). This can be explained both by lower population and urban
population densities common to these regions. Among the cities reported in the report the top cities by
RTI (in 2018) are Delhi, Chennai, Bengaluru, Jaipur, Mumbai, Kanpur, Agra and Allahabad. All of
these cities report more than 600 RTI.
Looking at the rate of change in the RTIs over a 3 year period between 2015 and 2018, the report
highlights the following points for the 50 cities reported.
1. For 19 cities (Agra, Allahabad, Asansol Durgapur, Bhopal, Chennai, Dhanbad, Faridabad,
Ghaziabad, Gwalior, Jaipur, Kollam, Ludhiana, Meerut, Patna, Rajkot, Surat,
Thiruvanthapuram, Thrissur and Varanasi), there was a 10+% increase in the occurrence of
RTI.
2. For 15 cities (Ahmedabad, Aurangabad, Bengaluru, Delhi, Jabalpur, Jamshedpur, Kannur,
Kanpur, Khozikode, Lucknow, Mallapuram, Nagpur, Nashik, Raipur, Vijaywada), there was a
change of 10% in the RTI for these cities.
3. In the other 16 cities [reported as 15 in report] (Amritsar, Chandigarh, Coimbatore, Hyderabad,
Indore, Jodhpur, Kochi, Kolkata, Kota, Madurai, Mumbai, Pune, Srinagar, Tiruchirapalli,
Vadodra and Visakhapatnam), the report showed a decrease of more than 10% in the RTI.
Clearly in the list of the cities reported in the study have a high variance in the level of population. So
to normalize against the population the report also showed the RTI per 100,000 population for the 50
cities. Amongst these the cities with the highest risk values are primarily non metro cities. The report
sought to explain this phenomenon by the fact that in metro cities the density of the road traffic is higher
and thus the speeds of cars, buses and trucks are relatively lower. From the report we can also
understand that the highest level of victims of RTI belong to the VRU (Vulnerable Road Users), this
includes pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists. It is a well cited fact that the severity of injury decreases
dramatically (it follows a logarithmic scale) with decrease in impact velocity.
The report also talked in specific about 4 of the major cities in India, these cities are Agra, Bhopal,
Vadodra and Vishakhapatnam. There were four more non metro cities mentioned in the report
(Amritsar, Ludhiana, Patiala and Bulandshahr), these cities were not discussed in detail. The report
cited a 2013 study (by the same authors) which included the four cities studied in the report.
In the detailed report on the medium sized cities, the report summarized the following points
1. The main victims of RTI were VRU which accounted for 84-93% of the fatal crashes. Among
other modes the share of fatal crashes were Car (2-4%) and TSR (5-8%), the other modes have
the remaining >5% share of fatal RTI.
2. In the case of the VRU the most prominent impacting vehicles are buses and trucks.
3. In addition to the Buses and trucks a special mention was made of the MTW (Motorized Two
Wheelers) and pedestrian/ cyclist crashes. This was attributed to the fact that all three of the
road users share similar space on the carriage way and even on the pedestrian footpaths.
4. This MTW pedestrian crashes were found to be exceptionally high between 20:00 – 23:00,
which was due to higher speeds, poor lighting and high DUI (driving under influence)
5. There was a non-significantly lower crashes reported for young children, which is something
that was not explained in the report and needed further investigation.
6. The report concluded in saying the relative risk posed by the cars in the major cities in India is
above average compared to high income countries, and the relative risk of the MTW and TSRs
are significantly lower.
5. Intercity highways
Introduction
The Indian government has launched a number of programmes for the expansion and up-gradation of
highways in India since 2000. Upgradation of the National Highways (NH) includes increasing the
number of lanes, Changing the undivided roads into divided ones, and adding shoulders to 2-lane roads.
This is being done in order to improve the connectivity of various cities, enhancing capacity and safety.
National Highway Authority of India (NHAI), under its National Highway Development Programme
(NHDP), is currently upgrading 49000 km, and 24000 km of highways have been upgraded.
Traffic Crashes on Indian Highways
The proportion of RTI fatalities on different roadway categories, the corresponding proportion of
roadway length of each roadway type, and the fatality rate per 100 km of road for different road
categories is shown in figure 1 (Transport Research Wing 2019). The fatality rate per 100 km of road
is the highest in NH with 47.3 deaths per 100 km, followed by State Highways (SH) with 23.2 deaths
per 100 km annually. NH comprise only 2% of the total length of roads in India and account for 36%
of the fatalities, whereas SH comprises 3% of the total roads and account for 27% of the fatalities. These
high death rates could be because of a significant proportion of passengers and freight traffic on the NH
and SH. The fatality rate per km of the road is the highest in NH, with 0.67 deaths per km annually, and
this fact should be the guiding factor in future design considerations. Vulnerable road users consisting
of pedestrians and Motorised Two-Wheelers (MTW) are about 68% of the total deaths.
Figure 10. The proportion of RTI fatalities on different categories of roads and the proportion of road
length for each category and the fatalities per
100 km on different categories of roads in India.
Figure SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1. The proportion of RTI fatalities on different categories of roads and
Crash Pattern of road length for each category and the fatalities per 100 km on different categories of
the proportion
roads in India.
Thirty-five study sites were selected on the intercity highways to study the traffic crash pattern. Two
ways were adopted to collect road crash data in which one of them is based on the First Information
Reports (FIRs) of one year from the police station, and another one is by collecting the data from a
trained informer for a three-month duration over a 50 km stretch. The police data misses several details
like minor injury and single-vehicle accidents, whereas the data by informer many fatal accidents
involving pedestrians and cyclists as no evidence is left at the crash scene and informer may miss the
incident. A study on a police report at different roads at a different time is done, and the modal share of
those killed and the vehicles involved for those kills is given in table 2.
Table 2. The modal share of road traffic fatalities and the proportion of impacting vehicle type in fatal
crashes on selected highway locations.
In 1998, the proportion of vulnerable road users was about 68%, and that of motor vehicle occupants
are 32% for highways whereas those in urban areas are 5% motor vehicle occupants and rest are
vulnerable road users. Motor vehicle fatalities are higher on highways than in urban areas, but these
differences are not as high in western countries. As most of those getting killed are vulnerable road
users, this should be considered in future road design. Trucks and busses are involved in about 70% of
the total fatal crashes in both rural and urban areas. Pedestrian and MTW proportions are very high on
all roadway facilities except on 6-lane highways where truck victims are higher. The crash pattern in
rural and urban in India is different from the western countries as there is a dense population living
along the highways in almost every part of India, which results in the exposure of a large population.
Thus, vehicle safety could be enhanced by separating the local traffic from the mainstream or by
separating the slow and fast-moving vehicles on the same road and by implementing safe road crossing
passages for the vulnerable road user. Rear-end collisions are high on all types of highways having 4-
lanes. This could be due to less visibility.
The report studied various systematic reviews and meta-analysis literature in the road safety space to
understand the implication and applicability of these in the context of the Indian scenario. These
interventions were sub-classified into 5 categories, the highlights of the results of these studies are
presented below.
In the case of enforcement and legislation there are 2 primary aspects to be considered. First of all the
road safety legislations are highlighted in the Motors Vehicle Act (amended 2019). This is a central
government act and the enforcement of which is subjected to state legislation, as a result many cities/
states have a varying approach towards the enforcement of these laws. That said the report cited many
studies where things like sporadic checks (on speeding and DUI) proved to be largely ineffective in
reducing infractions and thus number of crashes. Stationary and more permanent methods such as speed
cameras and regular patrolling of police vehicles proved to be more effective due to an increase in the
risk perception of getting caught and thus persecuted. The study also noted the fact that in the case of
India the lower expenditure on enforcement proves to be detrimental to use this strategy.
In the case of driver and road user education it has proven to be ineffective to create a sustained and a
long-term impact in reduction of RTI. A reward based safety campaign have shown to have a temporary
impact in moderating behaviour towards a safer road user, but these too are limited to the time the
campaign is in effect and soon loose effectiveness. The report cited studies involving a comprehensive
driver training program at a pre licence level such as those in US to inculcate safer road behaviour
practises in the youth which carry forward into their life. The major focus of these driver training and
educational programs focus on themes such as helmet and seatbelt use.
For the vehicle factors the report highlighted the effectiveness of the interventions implemented directly
onto the vehicle which have helped in the reduction of both the occurrence and the severity of RTIs.
These include airbags (in conjunction with seatbelts), daylight running lamps (for MTW and cars) and
improved crashworthiness of the vehicles. In an earlier studies it was also stated that unless there are
state mandated legislations regarding these interventions due to cost cutting on the part of automobile
manufacturers these interventions are not implemented in India. As of the 2019 amendment to the MVA
many of these have been addressed.
A major factor in the reduction of RTIs have been via changing the road infrastructure. In nearly all the
studies cited in the report effectiveness of traffic calming and reduction in vehicular speeds based on
road design and proven to be the most effective. The report did highlight the need to take into account
a mixed modal composition of Indian road traffic while designing for these interventions. Highlighting
some of the takeaways from the section of the report the major areas of interventions are – 1) safer VRU
infrastructure, 2) roundabouts, 3) traffic calming and reduction in vehicle speeds, 4) service lanes along
highways.
For pre hospital care of trauma patients the report focused on Cochrane reviews. The results of the
studies focused on three key factors, which are extrication of patients, stabilization of patients with
trauma and faster access to a medical facility. There are studies discussed in the report regarding IV
transfusion, patient immobilization and the “golden hour” which do not show any significant evidence
of patient recovery. As an addendum the report did specify that due to the disparity in medical and
emergency trauma infrastructure each of the factors must be carefully considered before applying to the
Indian context.
8. Way Forward
The final section of the report proposes some key points to better the situation of RTIs in India. The
suggestions of the report is summarised as below
1. Better safety for pedestrians and cyclist infrastructure by creating a dedicated space in the
carriageway for them and improving the conspicuity so as to reduce accidental crashes.
2. Enforcement of helmets, seatbelts, DRL and DUI enforcements such as alcohol locks. Special
mention was made for the use of child seats and child restraints.
3. Reduction of urban and rural vehicular speeds by implementing traffic calming methods near
populated areas.
4. Creating space for vulnerable and disabled road users.
5. Removal of raised medians and other vertical constructions on high speed roads to prevent
vehicle overturn.
6. Improving prehospital care of road traffic trauma victims based on an evidence based
methodology.
7. Promoting research into the different facets of road traffic safety.
8. Creating a central government agency responsible for the safety of Indian roads with and active
say into policy implementation towards the same.