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UTS Decision Tree Arief Aradhiya 29120598

The document presents information on the potential success rates and profits/losses of three investment options: solar, wind, and gasoline. It then calculates the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option based on the potential outcomes. The EMV is highest for solar at $190.63, followed by gasoline at $125, with wind at $60. The document recommends choosing the solar option. It then provides additional details on modifying one of the options to increase its potential profit and success rate.

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Ayda Khadiva
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64 views6 pages

UTS Decision Tree Arief Aradhiya 29120598

The document presents information on the potential success rates and profits/losses of three investment options: solar, wind, and gasoline. It then calculates the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option based on the potential outcomes. The EMV is highest for solar at $190.63, followed by gasoline at $125, with wind at $60. The document recommends choosing the solar option. It then provides additional details on modifying one of the options to increase its potential profit and success rate.

Uploaded by

Ayda Khadiva
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Success

A 45%
Solar

Fail
55.00%

Success
60%
Wind

Fail
40%
1

Success
50%
Gasoline

Fail
50%

B.1 Maximax $ 225 Based on the Value Maximax, Decision is Solar


B.2 Max Likelihood
B.3 EMV $ 125 Based on the EMV result, Decision is Gasoline

A Success Profit
45%
Solar

Fail
55.00%

Success Profit
60%
Wind
2
2

Fail
40%

Success Profit
50%
Gasoline

Fail Loss
50%

EMV Solar $ 190.63

EMV Wind $ 60.00

EMV Gasoline $ 125

The chosen design if modify option is available is Solar


Profit $ 500 Value Success $ 225

EMV $ 115

Loss $ (200) Value Loss $ (110)

Profit $ 200 Value Success $ 120

EMV $ 90

Loss $ (75) Value Loss $ (30)

Profit $ 400 Value Success $ 200

EMV $ 125

Loss $ (150) Value Loss $ (75)

, Decision is Solar

cision is Gasoline

$ 500 Value Success $ 225

Success Profit $ 300 Value Success $ 225


Modify 75%

Fail 25% $ (250) Value Loss $ (63)


Loss

No Modify Loss $ (200) EMV No Modify $ -

$ 200 Value Success $ 120


Modify Success Profit $ 100 Value Success $ 25
25%

Fail 75% $ (90) Value Loss $ (68)


Loss

No Modify Loss $ (75) EMV No Modify $ (30)

$ 400 Value Success $ 200

EMV $ 125

$ (150) Value Loss $ (75)


EMV $ 163
EMV $ (42.50)

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