MID tEST
MID tEST
The EHang 184 AAV (Autonomous Aerial Vehicle) that can autonomously fly a human
passenger, programmed with an app, is displayed at the CES 2016 Consumer Electronics Show
in Las Vegas, Nevada, January 7, 2016. Photo: AFP/David McNew.
At first, human-carrying drones sound no more realistic than flying cars. Until recently,
inventors had never been able to marry automobiles and aircraft in a practical way. Yet a few
companies have kept at it.
Terrafugia, for example, has since 2006 been developing Transition, a “roadable aircraft” that
resembles a small airplane that can fold its wings and drive on roads. A personal flying car in
every garage has proved to be a tough sell, however. There are serious safety concerns about
asking the average commuter to train for a pilot’s license and take to the skies.
But passenger drones are different. They would operate autonomously, or without the control of
a pilot. They would also leave the "roadable" part behind in favor of larger versions of aircraft
that already exist. Last month, Chinese startup company EHang announced it would debut its
passenger drone service in Dubai in July. The EHang 184 autonomous aerial vehicle resembles
an overgrown quadcopter with a passenger cab on top.
Last October, ride-hailing service Uber publicized its Elevate program for urban air
transportation. It also announced support for companies building vehicles similar to the 184.
Uber recently bolstered its plans by hiring Mark Moore, an aircraft engineer at NASA. Moore is
a pioneer in vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft designs.
Passenger drone designs favor “distributed electric propulsion.” This means that instead of
having one large rotor powered by a large engine, they have several smaller propellers. Each of
these is powered by its own smaller motor. This design sacrifices lifting power and flight
performance. But it gives the drones a mechanical simplicity and lighter weight, which could
make them cheaper to operate. Quieter electric power would make the noise more acceptable to
city residents. However, it remains to be seen how much weight such a vehicle could lift, and for
how long.
With any of these vehicles, safety is the biggest concern. That extends to both the aircraft and
the automated systems flying them. Advanced artificial intelligence (AI) is needed to fly large
numbers of autonomous aircraft without crashing them into one another. Carrying people from
point A to point B seems simple enough, but even the best AI struggles with surprises.
For example, what would happen if a drone's landing area was not available? What would the
drone do? This was asked by Sanjiv Singh, a Carnegie Mellon University robotics researcher.
Singh believes that the necessary AI should be tested before leaping to fully automated
passenger drones. Early passenger services might include pilots assisted by AI co-pilots – a
“mixed mode” approach that Singh helped to develop for the U.S. military.
Despite the concerns, some experts are cautiously hopeful. The technological challenges can be
overcome, says Marilyn Smith, a scientist at Georgia Institute of Technology. “I think the big
roadblock is the regulatory infrastructure that has to be put into place” to ensure safety, Smith
says.
Regulators from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have not yet issued rules for
passenger drones. The FAA is, however, working with NASA on ways to manage swarms of
smaller drones. The rules they are developing might also apply to larger self-flying aircraft.
NASA’s approach relies on drone operators sending flight information to a centralized system.
This would be very similar to the air-traffic control system used to guide airplanes. It would
track the location of autonomous aircraft, says Parimal Kopardekar, a scientist at NASA. The
system would provide a “common picture of what is going on in the airspace," Kopardekar says.
This would ensure that drones steer clear of each other and avoid crashes.
"This Is Not Your Father's Flying Car"
Technical challenges aside, EHang, Uber and others promoting the technology will have to find
a way to convince the public to give their drones a whirl. After all, this is something that requires
a much bigger leap of faith than getting into a self-driving car. Passenger drone makers are
“obviously still ... improving the basics,” says Mike Hirschberg, executive director of the
American Helicopter Society International (AHSI). The AHSI is an organization for scientists
that promotes VTOL technology.
Hirschberg believes that "20 or 30 years from now life might be a little like 'The Jetsons'"
cartoon from the 1960s. He says that passenger drones would give people "much more
mobility," especially in cities where streets are busy.
Passenger drones might still be way down the road, however, depending on whom you ask. “This
is not your father’s flying car,” Hirschberg says. “It’s going to happen.”
Still, Carnegie Mellon’s Singh sees a long road ahead filled with lots of testing, study and efforts
to win the public’s trust before the technology becomes a viable transportation option. “There is
the danger of someone moving too fast and then having a problem that sets the industry back for
some time,” he says.
Reproduced with permission. Copyright © 2017 Scientific American, a division of Nature America, Inc.
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