Consequence Modeling

and PSM

Wilbert Lee
Senior Staff Process Risk Engineer
Chevron Energy Technology Company

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 Consequence Modeling

The use of models to assess the potential for

injury to persons and damage to buildings and
equipment that could result from a Loss of
Containment.

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 Potential Hazards from Loss of
Containment

 Explosions
 Fire
 Flammable Cloud
 Toxic Cloud

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 Potential Hazards from Loss of
Containment
 Explosions
 Vapor Cloud Explosion
 Pressure Vessel Burst
 Dust
 Confined Explosion
 Chemical

 Fire
 Jet Fire
 Pool Fire
 Flash Fire
 Flares
 BLEVE , (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion)
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 Potential Hazards from Loss of
Containment

 Toxic Release
 Hydrogen Sulfide

 Ammonia

 Chlorine

 Combustion Byproducts

 Particulate Matter

 Air Quality – SOx, NOx

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 Consequence Models & Methodology
 Equations and calculations

 Graphical

 Computer Programs
 Excel Based

 Integrated Program, with Subroutines

 Single Hazard Program

 Dispersion
 Accidental Release

 Air Quality, (Gaussian)

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 Use & Purpose of Consequence Modeling
 Project Design
 Risk management and reduction

 Plant Layout:

 Vents and PSV’s

 Flares

 Building Siting

 Risk Assessments
 Qualitative

 Quantitative, (QRA’s)

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 Use & Purpose of Consequence Modeling
 Regulatory:
 EPA Risk Management Plan, (RMP)

 OSHA PSM – Facility Siting

 UK, Europe, & Australia Safety Case

 Inherently Safer Design

 Emergency Response Procedures
 Operating Procedures
 Maintenance Procedures
 Company Policy

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 Use & Purpose of Consequence Modeling:
Facility Siting Assessments
 API RP-752 & RP-753, (Permanent & Portable
Buildings)
 Refineries, Gas Plants, and Chemical Plants

 Methodology for managing potential risks to

personnel in occupied buildings that could result
from releases in process units

 Possible Hazards Include:

 Explosion

 Fire

 Toxic Releases

 Consequence or Risk Based Analysis

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 Potential Sources of Releases

Rupture, puncture, leak or hole in:

 Pressure Vessels

 Equipment:
 Pipes

 Pumps

 Compressors

 Flares, Vents, PSVs

 Valves, Gaskets, Seals, Flanges, Bleeders

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 Potential Sources of Releases
 Transportation Vehicles:
 Trucks

 Railcars

 Ships

 Pipelines:
 Above ground

 Below ground

 Subsea

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 Model Capabilities & Considerations

 Thermodynamics
 Multi-Component

 Release Rate

 Aerosol Effects

 Weather Conditions

 Pool Evaporation

 Surface Roughness

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 Model Capabilities & Considerations

 Possible Hazards:
 Explosion

 Fire

 Dispersion – Toxics & Flammables

 Flares: Radiant Heat

 Model Validation

 Accidental versus Air Quality Model

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 Explosion Modeling: Factors

 Energy Term

 Congestion

 Confinement

 Fuel Reactivity

 Ignition Strength

 Shielding and Channeling Effects

 Venting of Overpressure Buildup

 Deflagration versus Detonation

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 Explosion Models
 Baker Strehlow

 TNO Multi-Energy

 TNT

 CAM

 SCOPE

 Computation Fluid Dynamics, (CFD)

 FLACS

 EXSIM

 AutoReaGas
(Note: Some models are proprietary)

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 Dispersion Models
 Accidental Releases:
 Canary, (Quest Consultants)
 PHAST, (DNV)
 SAFER TRACE, (SAFER Systems)

 Air Quality:
 AERMOD
 Screen3
 ISCST3
 Many Others

 First Responders:
 ALOHA
 CAMEO
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 Endpoint or Concentration Criteria
 Flammable Gas Dispersion
 Lower Flammable Limit, (LFL)

 Upper Flammable Limit, (UFL)

Substance LFL UFL

Methane 5% 15%
Propane 2.1% 9.5%
Hydrogen 4% 75%

 Criteria to Keep From Potential Ignition Sources:

 20-50% LFL

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 Toxic Endpoint Criteria

 ERPG: Emergency Response Planning

Guidelines
 ERPG-1, 2, 3: (1) Hour Exposure

 Minor Health Effects, (max)

 Serious Health Effects, (max limit, without
experiencing)
 Life-Threatening Effects, (max limit, without
experiencing)

 AEGL: Acute Exposure Guideline Levels

 AEGL 1, 2, 3
 (10) min to (8) hr Exposure Duration
 Similar to ERPG Health Effects Definitions

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 Toxic Endpoint Criteria

 IDLH: Immediate Dangerous Limit or Health

 TLV & STEL: Worker Exposure

 Threshold Limit Value, Short-Term Exposure Limit

 8 hour and 15 min

 Dosage & Probits

 Exposure Time & Concentration

 Potential Fatality rates

 Can be used in QRA’s

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 Hydrogen Sulfide Endpoint Criteria, (ppm)
 ERPG-1: 0.1ppm
 ERPG-2: 30 ppm
 ERPG-3: 100 ppm

 AEGL-1: 0.51ppm, (1 hour)

 AEGL-2: 27 , (1 hour)
 AEGL-3: 50 , (1 hour)

 IDLH:100 ppm
 TLV:1 ppm
 STEL:5 ppm
 1% Fatality for (1) Hour Exposure:160 ppm*
* - Perry and Articola – CCPS 1980

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 Radiant Heat Endpoint Criteria

 Jet, Pool Fires, & Flares

 API 521 Flare Design Criteria: (max)

 500 Btu/hr-ft2: Continuous exposure for personnel

 1500 Btu/hr-ft2: Personnel Exposure only for several minutes

 2000 Btu/hr-ft2: Personnel Exposure only for 1 minute

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 Example of Dispersion
Modeling, (Canary 4.4)

Distance to Distance to
Weather LFL, 20% LFL,
Scenario Conditions (ft) (ft)

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 Example of Dispersion
Modeling, (Canary 4.4)

Distance to Distance to
Weather LFL, 20% LFL,
Scenario Conditions (ft) (ft)

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 50 psig 10 mph wind 3 7

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 Example of Dispersion
Modeling, (Canary 4.4)

Distance to Distance to
Weather LFL, 20% LFL,
Scenario Conditions (ft) (ft)

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 50 psig 10 mph wind 3 7

1/2” Hole, Methane at 200 Sunny Day

psig 10 mph wind 5.6 13

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 Example of Dispersion
Modeling, (Canary 4.4)

Distance to Distance to
Weather LFL, 20% LFL,
Scenario Conditions (ft) (ft)

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 50 psig 10 mph wind 3 7

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 200 psig 10 mph wind 5.6 13

1/2” Hole, Propane at 200 Sunny Day

psig 10 mph wind 20 130

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 Example of Dispersion
Modeling, (Canary 4.4)

Distance to Distance to
Weather LFL, 20% LFL,
Scenario Conditions (ft) (ft)

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 50 psig 10 mph wind 3 7

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 200 psig 10 mph wind 5.6 13

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Propane at 200 psig 10 mph wind 20 130

Sunny Day
2” Hole, Propane at 200 psig 10 mph wind 500 1100

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 Example of Dispersion
Modeling, (Canary 4.4)

Distance to Distance to
Weather LFL, 20% LFL,
Scenario Conditions (ft) (ft)

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 50 psig 10 mph wind 3 7

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Methane at 200 psig 10 mph wind 5.6 13

Sunny Day
1/2” Hole, Propane at 200 psig 10 mph wind 20 130

Sunny Day
2” Hole, Propane at 200 psig 10 mph wind 500 1100

Night
2” Hole, Propane at 200 psig 5 mph wind 900 2000

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 Example of Dispersion Model Output

Momentum Jet Cloud

CONCENTRATION CONTOURS: SIDE VIEW
LPG Release
70.0

60.0

50.0

Height (feet) 40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
0.0
20.0 40.0 60.0
Downwind Distance (feet)
9.50 mole percent Propane
2.10 mole percent Propane
1.05 mole percent Propane

casename=1LPGtst
windspeed = 10.0 mph
D stability
CANARY by Quest Thu Jul 17 14:25:28 2014

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 Example of Explosion Model Output

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 References for Information

 CCPS: “Guidelines for Consequence Analysis of Chemical

Releases”

 CCPS: “Guidelines for Vapor Cloud Explosions, Pressure

Vessel Burst, BLEVE and Flash Fire Hazards”

 CCPS: “Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk

Analysis”

 API 752: “Management of Hazards Associated with Location

of Process Plant Permanent Buildings”

 API 521: “Guide for Pressure-relieving and Depressuring

Systems”

 Lee’s Loss Prevention in the Process Industry

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 CCPS: “Guidelines for Consequence Analysis of
Chemical Releases” - Equations, Graphs & Excel
Spreadsheets

 Liquid Discharge through a Piping System

 Gas Discharge through a Hole
 Pool Evaporation
 Vapor Cloud Explosion Model
 Overpressure from a Ruptured Vessel
 Range of a Fragment in Air

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 CCPS: “Guidelines for Consequence Analysis of
Chemical Releases” - Equations, Graphs & Excel
Spreadsheets

 BLEVE Thermal Flux

 BLEVE Blast Fragments
 Overpressure from a Combustion in a Vessel
 Radiation from a Burning Pool
 Radiant Flux from a Jet Fire
 Thermal Flux Dosage Fatality Estimate

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 Use of Consequence Modeling in PSM:
Summary

 Identify Potential Hazards:

 PHA’s

 Review of plant & drawings

 Estimate Potential Impact & Hazard

 Understand why modeling is needed
 Use to improve/determine design basis
 Mitigation Options
 Procedures and Emergency Response

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 Use of Consequence Modeling in PSM:
Other Issues

 Know what models and methods are available

 Understand limits & boundaries of models
 Understand accuracy and sensitivities of model
 Understand what data is needed to run analysis
 Determine most appropriate model to use
 Understand that models only provide estimates

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 Questions ?

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