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Unit 6 - Activity 6 - Confidence Intervals Worksheet

The document discusses confidence intervals, which provide a range of values that the population mean is likely to fall within based on a sample. It gives examples of confidence intervals at the 95% level and explains what each part of a confidence interval calculation represents: the sample mean, margin of error, confidence interval range, and probability that the actual population mean falls within the range. It also notes that a 95% confidence level means there is a 5% chance the population mean falls outside the given range.

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Nidhi Vyas
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140 views3 pages

Unit 6 - Activity 6 - Confidence Intervals Worksheet

The document discusses confidence intervals, which provide a range of values that the population mean is likely to fall within based on a sample. It gives examples of confidence intervals at the 95% level and explains what each part of a confidence interval calculation represents: the sample mean, margin of error, confidence interval range, and probability that the actual population mean falls within the range. It also notes that a 95% confidence level means there is a 5% chance the population mean falls outside the given range.

Uploaded by

Nidhi Vyas
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Unit 6 - Activity 6 - Confidence Intervals Worksheet

When you take a sample and calculate the mean of your sample _____, you are finding an
estimate of the population mean _____. If you follow proper sampling techniques (from
Chapter 2), your estimate is more likely to be representative of the population. However, there
is always the possibility that your sample will include extreme members of the population, and
thus your sample will not be representative of the population.

This is why most studies give their results in terms of a confidence interval. A confidence
interval demonstrates:

 The range of values that the population mean is likely to have


 The probability that the mean will be within that range of values

For example, if it is found that there is a 95 % chance that the population mean will be between
1.311 kg and 1.535 kg, the confidence interval may be written in one of the following ways:

1. μ=1.423 kg ± 0.112 kg, 19 times out of 20

2. 1.311 kg< μ <1.535 kg (95 % confidence interval)

3. The mean of 1.423 kg is accurate to within ± 8 %, 19 times out of 20

In the above examples, the values

 1.423 kg represents the _______________________. This is the researcher’s estimate of


the population mean.

 0.112kg and ± 8 % represent the ____________________________ for the study. This


depends on a number of factors, including the population size, the standard deviation of
the variable, and the sample size.

 “19 times out of 20” or 95 % is the _________________________________. This shows


how likely it is that the actual population mean is within the range given by the
confidence interval. A 95 % confidence interval means that there is a 5 % chance that
your confidence interval will not include the actual population mean.
Notes:

1. Even though we’ve given a range for the population mean, we can never know for sure
what the population mean is, so we can’t even say that it’s necessarily within a
particular range. We can only say that there is a 95% or 99% or 90% probability that it is
within a certain range.

2. The most commonly used confidence level is 95%. If you want to be particularly
accurate in your study, such as in a trial of a new drug, you might use a confidence level
of 99%. If you are less concerned about accuracy, such as for an opinion poll, you might
use a confidence level of 90%.

Questions:
1. For each of the following, determine:
i) Sample mean
ii) Margin of error (as a % and a measurement)
iii) Range of values within the confidence interval
iv) Probability that the actual mean being within the confidence interval
a)  = 89.22 L  8.24 L, 9 times out of 10
b) 5.332 m <  < 8.456 m (99% confidence interval)
c)  = 43.22 kg  5%, 19 times out of 20.
d) 1.821 m <  < 5.122 m (90% confidence interval)

2. Interpret each of the following statements using confidence intervals.


a. In a recent survey, 42% of high school graduates indicated that they expected to
earn over $100, 000 per year by the time they retire. This survey is considered
accurate within plus or minus 3%, 19 times in 20.

b. A survey done by the incumbent MP indicated that 48% of decided voters said they
would vote for him again in the next election. The result is considered accurate
within plus or minus 5%, nine times in ten.

c. According to a market research firm, 28% of teenagers will purchase the latest CD by
rock band Drench. The result is considered accurate within  4%, 11 out of 15 times.

3. Ms. Robinson used simple random sampling of ten students in her Calculus class. She found
that the average mark was 80%. The actual average mark in the class is 77%.
a. Assuming she used proper sampling technique, how is this possible?

b. How could she get a more accurate result from her survey without altering her
sampling method?
What level of confidence (and why) would you use for a study looking at:
a. What people are wearing to the prom
b. Who people are going to vote for in the next federal election
c. Whether or not a new heart medicine causes cancer
d. Whether carcinogens are being released by a waste facility

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