Business Intelligence Automotive
Business Intelligence Automotive
A U T O M O T I V E
Contents
Click to jump to a section:
1. Advertising Forecasts
2. Category Growth
3. Consumer Trends
Introduction
Welcome to the first edition of The development of more
Zenith’s new Business Intelligence advanced and environmentally
reports, each of which will focus friendly vehicles, combined with
on a specific business category. new demand for private transport
We will look at the main trends among consumers wary of crowds,
in advertising in that category, is forecast to spur sustained
and forecast their future, while growth in new vehicle sales from
also examining the top-level 2021 onwards.
business environment, and how
consumer behaviour is shaping the Auto brands will need to develop
development of the industry. new ways of communicating with
consumers, whose expectations
For this first edition we focus on for how to research, choose and
the automotive industry. This has buy cars are shifting online, a
suffered disproportionately from trend that the pandemic has
the coronavirus pandemic, but accelerated. Digital advertising
the prospects for growth are good is already the biggest channel
once the recovery takes hold. for automotive brands, and its
Consumers who need new cars importance will only grow over
have postponed, not cancelled, the next few years.
their plans to buy.
AUTOMOTIVE
ADVERTISING FORECASTS
1
Automotive adspend will
shrink 21% in 2020
Automotive advertising Faced with pressure on both
expenditure is expected to shrink supply and demand, car brands
by 21.0% in 2020 across 10 key cut their ad budgets sharply when
markets according to Zenith’s the severity of the crisis became
Automotive Advertising Forecasts. clear. The months of April and May
That’s two-and-a-half times faster had the greatest decline in most
than the decline of the ad market markets. Year-on-year declines have
as a whole in these markets. since eased, and Zenith expects
them to moderate progressively
The markets included in this over the rest of the year.
survey are Australia, Canada,
Germany, India, Italy, Russia, However, automotive adspend is
Spain, Switzerland, the UK and poised to outperform the market
US, which collectively account for in both 2021 and 2022. Initially the
57% of all global adspend. large decline in 2020 will make
the comparison easier in 2021, but
The spread of the novel delayed purchase decisions, and
coronavirus and its effect on persistent reluctance to use shared
the global economy have left and public transport will lead to
consumers uncertain about their the first growth in passenger car
financial futures. As a result, sales since 2017.
many have delayed discretionary
purchases, especially big-ticket Year-on-year growth in
items like cars: in a global adspend (%) - ten key markets
consumer survey conducted by
GlobalWebIndex at the beginning 10.5 11.4
of July, 80% of people said they 4.4 4.2
planned to delay big purchases. 2020
Car manufacturers have also
suffered from disruption to their 2021 2022
supply chains, as lockdowns shut
down manufacturing in different -8.7
countries at different times.
-21.0
Source: Zenith
2
Automotive adspend will
remain behind its 2019
level in 2022
Despite the speed of recovery Automotive advertising is a highly
in 2021 and 2022, automotive visible and substantial part of the
advertising is forecast to be 2.8% advertising market, representing
lower in 2022 than it was in 2019. 9% of all advertising in 2019.
It will have recovered less lost
ground than the market as whole, “Automotive
which is forecast to be just 0.6%
below its 2019 level in 2022. advertising will
This suggests that automotive
advertising will outperform the
outperform the
market beyond 2022. market beyond 2022”
32.8 31.9
28.7
25.9
Source: Zenith
3
Worst-hit markets to benefit from
biggest recovery in 2021
Year-on-year growth in total adspend by market
-18.8
Australia 2.6
5.8
-8.1
Canada 14.1
10.0
-17.3
Germany 2.6
1.2
-22.6
India 21.8
10.3
-25.5
Italy 15.7
14.0
-13.2
Russia 15.8
11.4
-31.4
Spain 22.6
4.0
-38.8
Switzerland 29.7
0.9
-32.1
United Kingdom 22.5
8.1
-21.9
US 11.6
17.3
Source: Zenith
4
The timing of the advertising “Most markets will
downturn caused by the
coronavirus has been unlike any see rapid growth next
other on record. Budgets were cut
heavily and quickly, but money
year in proportion
started to return to most markets to the decline they
after three or four months,
leading to more moderate year- suffered in 2020”
on-year declines. This intense
shock to spending will flatten the
year-on-year comparisons in 2021. Australia and Germany are
forecast to experience weaker
Most markets will see rapid growth recoveries in 2020 and 2021;
next year, generally in proportion Australia’s ad market has suffered
to the decline they suffered in decreased demand since 2017,
2020, even though spending will while new vehicle demand in
still be substantially below 2019 Germany will be supressed by
levels. Switzerland, for example, government restrictions and
is forecast to enjoy the strongest incentives designed to promote
growth at 30% after the steepest alternatives to car use.
decline in 2020 of 39%.
5
Auto brands lag behind the
market in digital
Share of adspend by medium, 2019 (%)
49.1
42.2
31.6
27.0
10.9 7.3 8.3 6.4
3.0 5.1 0.7 0.5 3.3 4.6
Source: Zenith
6
But digital advertising is the only
channel forecast to grow
Zenith predicts that digital will “Brands will focus
be the only channel in which
auto brands spend more in 2022 more on premium
than in 2019. Brands will focus
more on premium digital video
digital video and
to compensate for declining make better use of
prime-time TV ratings, and make
better use of their customer their customer data”
data to target digital ads more
effectively. Even before the
pandemic, digital channels were Newspapers and magazines have
becoming more important in been losing market share for years
the path to purchase, and the as their readers migrated online,
pandemic has only accelerated and are forecast to recover barely
that trend. We expect this to any of the ad revenues they lost
continue over the next few years. in 2020 by 2022. Out-of-home and
cinema, by contrast, are forecast
to recover strongly in 2021 and
Total growth in automotive 2022 from even steeper losses in
2020, which were caused by social
adspend 2019-2022 (%)
distancing restrictions.
Cinema -15.8
Newspapers -26.6
Magazines -27.9
Source: Zenith
7
Australia and Canada are
pioneering digital-led auto
marketing
Australia and Canada are the most 75% in 2019 to 79% in 2022, and in
advanced markets for automotive Canada from 72% to 75%.
digital advertising, each devoting
more than 70% of total spend In other markets the potential for
to digital channels. These growth is even higher, especially
markets demonstrate that digital in the markets that are currently
advertising can take consumers lagging behind. Zenith forecasts
through the whole customer the digital market share of auto
journey, from awareness to advertising to rise in India from
consideration to purchase. Even 15% in 2019 to 23% in 2022, in
here there is potential for more Switzerland from 27% to 33% and
growth – digital’s share of spend is in the US from 31% to 38%.
forecast to rise in Australia from
75.3 72.0
62.7
51.6 53.0
47.8
32.2 31.0
26.9
15.2
lia
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UK
US
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ai
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ss
na
ra
la
Sp
In
rm
Ru
er
st
Ca
Ge
Au
itz
Sw
Source: Zenith
8
AUTOMOTIVE
CATEGORY GROWTH
12%
Investors are rewarding High-performing brands can
brands with advanced expect 12% annual growth
drivetrain technology once the crisis is over,
six times faster than the
market as a whole
9
Global car sales growth to
resume in 2021, with long-
term growth of 2% a year
The coronavirus crisis will lead to “Car sales are
a steep drop in car sales in 2020
– Euromonitor is forecasting a forecast to fall 13% in
13% global decline. The European
Automobile Manufacturers’
2020 after consumers
Association forecasts a 25% put discretionary
decline in Europe. Sales fell
sharply as countries entered purchases on hold in
lockdown and consumers put most lockdown”
discretionary purchases on hold.
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Source: Euromonitor
10
China has been the main source
of sales growth
Annual growth in passenger car sales 2010-2019 (%)
Australia -0.4
Canada 2.0
China 6.2
France 0.0
Germany 2.2
India 3.1
Italy -0.3
Russia -0.5
Spain 3.8
Switzerland 0.6
United Kingdom 1.4
USA 3.7
Source: Euromonitor
11
All markets are facing steep
declines in 2020
Year-on-year change in passenger car sales 2020 (%)
-10.7 Australia
-10.9 Canada
-20.2 China
-12.4 France
-8.6 Germany
-10.7 India
-15.2 Italy
-14.9 Russia
-15.0 Spain
-11.2 Switzerland
-8.8 United Kingdom
-12.3 USA
Source: Euromonitor
12
India to lead long-term
growth after recovery
Average annual growth in passenger car sales
2021-2025 (%)
Australia 2.9
Canada 1.4
China 4.5
France 1.0
Germany 0.5
India 5.9
Italy 0.9
Russia 1.8
Spain 1.0
Switzerland 1.0
United Kingdom 1.2
USA 1.9
Source: Euromonitor
13
Toyota is the biggest-selling car
brand, while Volkswagen added
the most sales
Top ten global car brands – sales in millions of units
(and average annual growth rates)
+2.8% 2010
+3.8% 2019
+4.4%
+3.5% +3.0%
-2.1%
+1.9% -1.6%
+4.4% +7.9%
A
a
rd
en
an
ki
z
da
le
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ot
nd
KI
zu
Fo
ss
ag
ro
un
y
-B
Ho
Su
Ni
To
ev
Hy
es
ks
Ch
ed
l
Vo
rc
Me
Source: Euromonitor
14
Tesla is by far the fastest-
growing global brand
Looking at the fastest-growing brand in the world. It’s still
global car brands, one stands out growing rapidly, though, despite
far above all the others: Tesla, this increased scale, with 46%
which grew by an average of growth in 2019.
110% a year from 2010 to 2019.
That’s partly because sales were Jeep, Jaguar, Porsche and Land
extremely low in its early years, Rover have all done well over the
totalling just 423 vehicles in 2010. decade, beating the growth rate
By 2019 sales rose to 335,000, of the market – 2.7% a year – by
making it the 44th-largest car between 3.5 and 5.8 times.
Tesla 110.0
Jeep 15.7
Jaguar 13.0
Porsche 12.5
Opel -3.4
Citroën -4.9
Lancia -5.6
Chrysler -5.7
Fiat -5.9
Source: Euromonitor
15
Investors have mixed feelings
about the manufacturers’
prospects
The share prices of most car rising 141%. Toyota, Hyundai and
manufacturers have fallen during Volkswagen shrank by 7%-9%, not
2020 as the markets have tried much more than the Dow Jones
to price in the impact of the Index’s 5% decline, while General
pandemic. That means assessing Motors and Ford fell by more
both the immediate drop in sales, than 20%. This was a collective
as consumers deferred large assessment not just of the impact
purchases, and manufacturers’ of the coronavirus on immediate
capacity to adapt to changing sales, but also of how prepared
market conditions as sales start to manufacturers are to meet
pick up. consumers’ demands for cleaner
and more efficient vehicles. Those
The variance in share price with a clear plan for transitioning
performance has been very to advanced drivetrain technology
wide. Honda’s rose by 2%, while will be best positioned for the
Tesla’s more than doubled, recovery.
Tesla 141.1
Honda 2.2
-7.4 Toyota
-7.9 Hyundai
-8.8 Volkswagen
-23.0 Ford
Source: Euromonitor
16
The best-performing brands can
expect six times more growth
than average
Excluding Tesla the fastest- “We can expect the
growing brands grew by 13% a
year in 2010-2019, ten percentage best-performing
points faster than the market as
a whole, which grew by 3%. The
brands to grow by
fastest-shrinking brands declined 12% a year, compared
by 5% a year, underperformed by
8 points. to 2% for the market
as a whole”
Euromonitor predicts growth in
car sales to be slightly slower
once the main coronavirus-related the best-performing brands to
fluctuations are over, forecasting grow roughly 12% a year in the
2% annual growth between 2022 medium term, compared to 2% for
and 2025. Taking this forecast the market as a whole, while the
as a base and assuming similar worst-performing brands shrink by
levels of performance, we expect 6% a year.
12.1
Worst-performing brands
Best-performing brands
-5.6
2022-2025
17
AUTOMOTIVE
CONSUMER TRENDS
18
A return to private
ownership at the expense
of public transport and
shared mobility
Over the past three years, Before the pandemic, the
passenger car sales decreased commute was the most common
globally. There are a number of journey made by consumers.
potential reasons for this – new According to the Euromonitor
innovations and new players in Mobility survey, on average 74%
the car-hailing, car-sharing and of consumers travelled to work
micro-mobility (small, personal, or school either most days or
lightweight devices with lower at least one-to-two days each
speeds) categories, and changing week. Of those commuting, 34-
attitudes toward mobility and to 63% typically use their personal
the environment. As a result, even car, and 15-54% use public
traditional automotive brands transportation. This percentage is
have invested in alternatives to mostly dependent on population
the ownership model in order to density, and public transportation
compete. infrastructure in the individual
countries. However, particularly
However, the emergence of amongst the younger and urban
COVID-19 may well change it all populations, ride-sharing / hailing
again, with new rules around and micro-mobility also gained
social distancing and restrictions traction as affordable and flexible
on human movement. alternatives to driving.
19
During lockdown, a huge decrease
in the number of trips and a “total cycling
reduction in available services
facilitated the adoption of sales in April
walking and cycling as transport
alternatives. In London, Transport were up by over
for London operated 60% of tube
services and close to 80% of bus 50% versus last
services during the crisis. But
in May, as lockdown eased, the year”
requirement to social distance
meant that they could only Association of Great Britain
take 15% of the normal number announced that total cycling
of passengers on the tube and sales in April were up by over 50%
bus networks, even as services versus last year, and Santander
increased. As a result, the Bicycle bike hires increased greatly.
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Feb-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jun-20
20
Personal safety will continue to
drive consumers’ desire to avoid “Personal safety
public and shared transportation
for the immediate future. Global will continue to
Web Index data shows that
people have an increased desire drive consumers’
for flexibility when it comes to
working from home and using desire to avoid
alternatives to public transport
post-pandemic; as lockdown eases public and shared
and people return to work, we
will likely see a resurgence in transportation for
private car ownership.
the immediate
future.”
Levels of interest in post-pandemic behaviours (%)
Australia
69.0
77.2
China
58.3
56.3
60.3
56.9
50.3
France
52.6
44.4
43.6
47.4
41.6
40.6
45.3
40.4
44.1
Germany
41.4
39.5
India
Italy
Spain
UK
USA
Working from home Using alternatings to
permanently public transport
21
Those consumers that were
planning to purchase a car before “a promising
the pandemic will extend the
timeframe for purchasing, but will increase in
still buy. Global Web Index data
shows that 41-60% of consumers searches for
who delayed the purchase of a car
will prioritise it post COVID-19. automotive
This is validated by Google brands as
Trends data that shows a
promising increase in searches for restrictions have
automotive brands as restrictions
have eased. The length of this eased.”
extended period will depend on
the control of the virus in each
market.
60%
58%
58%
46%
44%
42%
41%
41%
41%
32%
25%
20%
19%
18%
16%
16%
16%
16%
Delayed
Priority
22
Electric vehicles appeal to
consumers’ sustainable attitudes,
but they will require financial
incentives to buy
As the Global Web Index data more concerned about climate
shows, the importance of change and the environment. The
“companies behaving sustainably” pandemic has given consumers a
and in “reducing my carbon brief view into life without cars
footprint” have increased and emissions, and this positive
because of Coronavirus. The experience will create increased
biggest claimed increase in the pressure on governments and
importance is seen in China automotive brands to switch to
and India while the lowest is in electric or hybrid. Already in 2020
Germany. This aligns with the we can see an increased volume of
Global Web Index analysis that conversation regarding “electric
middle-income countries (as cars” on social media platforms -
defined by The World Bank) are by both brands and consumers.
Australia
86.9%
84.6%
79.4%
77.7%
China
68.3%
63.9%
63.0%
61.5%
France
54.8%
52.9%
52.2%
51.3%
48.5%
47.4%
47.1%
46.5%
Germany
43.1%
42.7%
India
Italy
Spain
UK
USA
Companies behaving sustainably Reducing my carbon footprint
23
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
01/01/2019 - 27/12/2019 14/01/2020 - 30/07/2020
24
However, to truly become a viable
alternative to petrol and diesel, “More than
brands and/or governments will
need to address two of the biggest pre-COVID-19,
consumer barriers: finances and
“range anxiety.” The cost of the prices and
electric vehicles is still much
higher than that of regular diesel payment options
or petrol cars. In markets such as
China, the government provides of electric
incentives that ultimately lower
the price for consumers. Whereas cars will need
in Russia, there are no tax
reductions, subsidies or support, to appeal to
and consumer interest and sales
are low. More than pre-COVID-19, financially
the prices and payment options
of electric cars will need to cautious
appeal to the financially cautious
consumers. consumers”
The other main barrier is “range from home will become more
anxiety,” which is the worry that important. Tools like Google Map’s
the electric car battery will run charging point function, which
out of power before arriving to its shows the location and availability
destination or a charging point. of charging points in the US and
Currently this worry is justified, UK, and Volvo’s Polestar 2 in-car
as the number of charging stations tech that calculates in advance
is inadequate or imbalanced if charging will be required and
across most markets. But as sales where it can be done, will help to
grow, the need for charging away ease consumer concern.
25
Brands need to develop exisiting
digital solutions, be flexible and
be seen as helping consumers in
uncertain times
According to Global Web Index This suggests that there will be
data, 56% of people aged 16-24 new, younger entrants in to the
are either occasional drivers or market. In the UK, the AA Driving
don’t drive at all, compared to School saw lessons increase more
only 30% of those aged 55-64. But than 500% after the government
61% of people who are extremely announced lessons could resume
or very interested in using in early July.
alternatives to public transport
post-pandemic are under 35.
16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
26
Global norms Global automotive norms
2017-2019, 243 projects 2017-2019, 15 projects
25%
40%
72% 85%
27% 10%
27
Touchpoints influence for visiting a dealership
94.99
89.61
87.61
84.84
83.61
28
Above all, recent changes in
consumer behaviours and media “Recent changes
consumption will drive all
purchases online to a greater in consumer
extent than pre-COVID-19, even
of big-ticket items. Touchpoints behaviours will
data shows that the automotive
category already has greater drive more big-
brand experience share from
digital (+10%) and earned (+5%) ticket item
touchpoints than the global
category norms. purchases online”
47.6 46.2
36.1 Paid
31.9
21.9 Owned
16.4
Earned
69.6
59.6
40.4 Offline
30.4
Online
29
Pre-COVID-19 digital channels
were a key source of information “As purchase
and research for consumers. But
post pandemic, this will now moves online
extend to the entire consumer
journey, and the driving there will be
experience itself. Brands should
enhance their existing digital new start-ups
solutions as a priority.
ready to take
In the US, Lexus recently used
augmented reality (AR) to launch advantage”
the 2021 IS model. This method
not only allowed customers Just as pre-COVID-19, ride
to see and walk around the sharing and micro mobility
vehicle from their own home, were disrupting the category,
but also showcased different as purchase moves online
personalisation options. Other there will likely be new start-
brands have also made use of ups or platforms ready to take
virtual showrooms, AR “test advantage. Traditional brands will
driving” and guided tours. need to adapt quickly.
30