Questions

p25: What does "reproduce violence" in the

definition of conflict transformaiton mean
p26: The position of the different definitions on the
time axis is the moment when they are used? Is this
right?

Principles of Conflict
Resolution
Dr. Philip Grech
Fall Semester 2020

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 1

0 Course Organization
0.1 Course Objectives
0.2 Practical Information
0.3 Course Content
0.4 Related Courses at ETH
0.5 Approach
0.6 About Myself

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 2

0.1 Course Objectives

 Identify common elements and differences of various types of conflicts

 Appreciate and assess various schools of thoughts and their approaches
 Be able to illustrate certain conflict aspects with real-life/historical examples
 Apply conflict analysis and resolution techniques to examples in

International relations Business relations Interpersonal relations

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0.2 Practical Information
 Will post solutions online
(incl. video)
 Will address questions in
class or in extra session
Time 14 – 16
Location HG D 7.2 + recording
Office hours Upon appointment
Contact pgrech@gmail.com
Course webpage Moodle Link
Practice There will be 4 problem sets!
Examination Graded end-of-semester exam
 Written examination
 Date: 17.12.20
 Place: HG D 7.2 or online
 Time: 14:15 – 15:45

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0.3 Course Content

International relations Business relations Interpersonal relations

Analysis

Prevention
TBD
Management

Resolution

Implementation

Transformation

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A detailed table of contents
is uploaded on moodle.

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0.4 Related courses at ETH

 Konfliktforschung I&II (Rüegger & Cederman)

 Weltpolitik seit 1945: Geschichte der internationalen more political
Beziehungen (Wenger)
 Introduction to Negotiation (Ambühl)
 Applied Negotiation Seminar (Knobel) ‘more practical’, focus on negotiations
 Negotiation Simulation (Knobel)
 Introduction to Game Theory (Nax) [also behavioral]
 Introduction to Game Theory: Strategic and Cooperative
more mathematical
Thinking (Britz/Tejada) [only theory]
 Mathematics in Politics and Law (Grech)

I have tried to keep the overlap at a reasonable level!

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 7

0.5 Approach

In one word, this course will be: interdisciplinary/transdisciplinary.

more fun, better understanding?
superficial, chaotic? → I’ll try my best to prevent that.

 Since John von Neumann was an ETH student, we will do quite a bit of (non-cooperative) game theory.

 However, we do not shy away from presenting insights from “softer” sciences:
 International relations
 (Social) psychology
 Jurisprudence
 …

 Many illustrative examples (“cases in point”) – mostly from international relations

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 8

0.6 About myself

 Senior researcher and lecturer at Chair of Negotiation and Conflict

Management
 PhD in Mathematical Physics @ ETH
 Though (perhaps bizarrely) main fields of interest nowadays:
 (Behavioral) game theory
 Technical analysis of negotiations
 Voting theory
 Applications in international relations (mostly EU)

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1 Introduction
1.1 Some examples
1.2 Definitions and Taxonomy
1.3 Why Study Conflicts?
1.4 Historic Development
1.5 Summary

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1.1 Some Examples
1.1.1 International relations
Institutional framework agreement CH - EU

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Greece-Turkey

Tensions between states

(conflict at state level with
a bigger implication of the
military)

 Both countries members of NATO

 Conflict over gas reserves
 Different interpretations of maritime law

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 12

 A military conflict (a
Syrian civil war lot of countries are
indirectly participating
at the war)

Hassan Nasrallah
Bashar al-Assad

Abu Ibrahim
Al-Hashimi

Ali Chamenei Vladimir Putin

Îlham Ehmed
Mansur Selum
Jawad Abu Recep Tayyib
Hatab Erdogan
Source: U.S. Congressional Research Service, February Report 2020 17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 13
Political or Personal?

I hate nobody except Hitler - and that is

professional.
Winston S. Churchill

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 In an open letter on November 18, 2014, Plotnisky suggested a direct
duel with Poroshenko to overcome the conflict. He offered that
Poroshenko choose the weapons.

Igor Plotnitsky I am absolutely convinced that the citizens of the Luhansk and
Petro Poroshenko
(Separatist leader Donetsk People’s Republics and all people of Ukraine, like all
(President of
Luhansk, 2014-2017) normal people in the world, want peace above all. Why are you Ukraine, 2014-2019)
inclined to consider the worst scenarios? I suggest that you
consider only one scenario, which is very good: we have a duel, like
Slavic chiefs and glorious Cossack hetman. The one who wins will
dictate his conditions to the opposite side.

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 Example of
1.1.2 Business business conflict

Lehman Brothers bankruptcy

 Chapter 11 bankruptcy
 Assets on September 15, 2008: over USD 600
 Largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history

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Conflict of interest between
state regulation and
institutions and companies
impacted by Covid-19

Check out my lecture «Mathematics in

Politics and Law» if you are interested in a
mathematical approach to such
distributional questions.

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1.1.3 Interpersonal relations
Marriage Story (2020)

Link

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Bezos divorce

Largest divorce settlement sum in history (35-38 billion US)

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1.2 Definitions and taxonomy
1.2.1 Some quotes There are different definitions of conflict

 A strong statement is that conflicts are solvable. This is not necessarily an idealistic or optimistic
position (Wallensteen, 2012) We sometimes don't realise thtat we have similar interests.
 [W]e define conflict as a perception of incompatibility between two or more actors and the range of
behavior associated with such perceptions (Bercovitch and Jackson, 2012)
 We [are] happy to use the term ‘conflict’ to refer to the widest set of circumstance in which conflict
parties perceive that they have mutually incompatible goals […] (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, Miall,
2011)
 In general, conflicts cannot be eliminated. What can be eliminated is the violent expression of conflict
(Bercovitch et al., 2013)
 Among diverse theories of conflict –corresponding to the diverse meanings of the word “conflict”- a
main dividing line is between those that treat conflict as a pathological state and seek its causes and
treatment, and those that take conflict for granted and study the behaviour associated with it
(Schelling, 1960)

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1.2.2 Our approach to ‘conflict’ The titel of this lecture implicates
that a conflict can be resolved.

We will mainly see two –related, but distinct (!) – notions of conflict in this lecture:
1. ‘Conflict’ denotes a (potentially only perceived) misalignment of interests.
In general: unavoidable, ubiquitous (unless really only perceived, then avoidable by communication).
Examples
 Two countries claim the same territory
 An employer wants to keep salaries low, employees want to keep them high
 Two separated parents both want custody over their children

2. ‘Conflict’ denotes inefficient* outcomes as a consequence of misaligned interests.

Often avoidable, manageable and/or resolvable.
Examples
 Violent eruption (killings/injury in wars, fights)
 Emotional pain (grievances, trauma)
 Cost explosion (litigator salaries)
 Waste of time (unduly long, unproductive negotiations)
Definition 1 is usually seen as the “modern” definition, but most authors usually nevertheless –somewhat
inconsistently- refer to terms like “conflict resolution” by which they don’t mean a re-alignment of preferences, but the
resolution of an inefficient intermediate state (e.g. war)
*Roughly speaking, an inefficiency is an outcome to which there exist alternatives that are better for all conflict parties
17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 21
In quantitative conflict research, notion 2 is differentiated, for example:

Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP):

Armed conflict: a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use
of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at
least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.
dyad: Paar/Zweierzahl

Conflict dyad: two conflicting primary parties of which at least one is the government of a state.
 Interstate conflicts: both primary parties are state governments
 Intrastate and extrasystemic conflicts: non-governmental primary party is an organised opposition
organisation.

War: state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific
calendar year.
→ cf. Konfliktforschung I & II (Rüegger / Cederman)

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1.2.3 Components of conflict
 Monolithic (individuals)  with superior authority
 Composite (groups,  “anarchical”
organizations, nation)
 Symmetric
 N=2
Party  Asymmetric
 N>2
composition Power setting
Number of
involved parties

 Isolated
Degree of
 Mediator involvement
Conflict external
 Adjudication involved
involvement
 Coercive external pressure

Issues
 Resources
 Preferences Utilized Domain Attitudes
 Relationship nature Means
 Interpersonal  Cognitive (beliefs and ideas)
 Values  Persuasion
 Intergroup  Affective (feelings and emotions)
 Beliefs  Coercion
(corporation,
 Violence organizations)
 Reward  International

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 1.2.4 Dealing with conflict*

 Conflict prevention. Tools that prevent violent/inefficient eruptions and escalation and that create
create the conditions for long-term peace and stability.
 Direct prevention. Directed at the issues with a short term goal in mind, i.e. to reduce tension and create trust
between actors (e.g. sanctions, workshops, coercive diplomacy etc.)
 Structural prevention. Aimed at specific groups or issues such as economic development, political participation
or cultural autonomy. Idea is to reach long term effects/effects in the long
term

 Conflict management. Efforts by a third party at preventing a conflict from getting worse and creating
an environment for interaction without restoring to violence/inefficiencies. Does not necessarily solve
the conflict.

 Conflict containment. Peacekeeping and war limitations (violence termination at the earliest
opportunity).
*Details e.g. in:
Bercovitch, J., Jackson, R., & Jackson, R. D. W. (2009). Conflict resolution in the twenty-first century: principles, methods, and approaches. University of Michigan Press.
Butler, M. J. (2009). International conflict management. Routledge.
Ramsbotham, O., Miall, H., & Woodhouse, T. (2011). Contemporary conflict resolution. Polity.

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 24

 Conflict settlement means the reaching of an agreement between the parties to settle a conflict, so
forestalling or ending a conflict.

 Conflict resolution is a situation where the conflicting parties enter into an agreement that solves their
central incompatibilities, accept each other’s continued existence as parties and cease all violent action
against each other. Often also used to denote the entire process incl. conflict transformation.

 Conflict transformation. Deep transformation in institutions and discourses that reproduce violence, as
well as in the conflict parties themselves.

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 25

 Conflict phases and measures
Escalation (often fast) De-escalation (often slow)

Conflict intensity
level Conflict containment
 Not an exact science,
Conflict management some authors use
different terminology
Conflict settlement  Prevention and
resolution measures
Conflict resolution
may coincide
Direct prevention (often also denotes the
entire process)

Structural prevention Conflict transformation

time
Starting a conflict is fast and easy
but solving it takes much more
time and energy 17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 26
1.3 Why study conflict?
 Conflict is ubiquitous
 Conflict can be “costly” (in the broadest sense)

1.3.1 International conflicts (better: armed conflict)

Sources:
 The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
 The Correlates of War project
 United Nations Peacekeeping
 Center for Systemic Peace
 Empirical Studies of Conflict

US marines in Iraq War (2004, Fallujah)

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Lots of conflicts
in the world

wikipedia
17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 29
Genocide in
Rwanda
 Casualties in World War II
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

Military losses (in 1'000) Civilian losses (in 1'000)

Own Chart, data source: The Oxford Guide to World War II (1995) – note that this does not include war-related famines occurring in China, the Soviet Union, the
Dutch East Indies and many other regions in the world.
1.3.2 Business conflicts

Sources
 Swiss Federal Statistical Office
 European Trade Union Institute

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Check out lecture
«Introduction to Negotiation»

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1.3.3 Interpersonal conflicts
Crude marriage and divorce rates: Switzerland (per 1 000 inhabitants)

Sources
 Swiss Federal Statistical Office
 EUROSTAT
 Swiss Bar Association

Source: Bundesamt für Statistik

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10

8
Crude marriage rate is the ratio of the number of
7 marriages during the year to the average
6
population in that year. The value is expressed per
1000 inhabitants
5

4 Crude divorce rate is the ratio of the number of

3 divorces during the year to the average population
in that year. The value is expressed per 1000
2
inhabitants.
1
Source: Eurostat
0
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Crude marriage Crude divorce

Source: Swiss Federal Statistical Office

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EU-28, 1965–2015 (per 1 000 inhabitants)

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Source: Anwaltspraxis (Swiss Bar Association), Benno Heussen (2006)
1.4 Historic development

Conflict resolution as an academic discipline is rooted in the tradition of international relations (IR)
 Here: very brief history of conflict resolution itself, mostly after World War II (WWII)
 In next chapter: historical development of important IR theories (starting in ancient Greece), many of which are
rather concerned with conflict analysis

Today

First proper academic journal on CR

Thucydides’ account of Peloponnesian
(established 1957)
War (431-404 BC)

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1.4.1 Early ideas: between the American and French revolution and the beginning of WWI

Ideas for avoidance of tyranny – boost for Ideas of class conflict, e.g. Pacifist movements, e.g.
popular participation in governance and basic Karl Marx (1818-1883) Mohandas Gandhi (1869-1948)
human rights, e.g. Vladimir Lenin (1870-1924) (“Satyagraha” (search for truth)
Voltaire (1694-1778) non-violent protest against
Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778) discrimination (→ influence on
Adam Smith (1723-1790) ANC during Apartheid in South
Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826) Africa))
James Madison (1751-1836)
Immanuel Kant (1724-1804)
Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832)
John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

Mohandas (later “Mahatma”)

Enlightenment (Flammarion Gandhi, 1909 in South Africa
engraving, first appearance 1888) Pyramid of the capitalist system (1911)

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Attitudes before World War I

 Systematic study of conflict resolution per se is however a relatively new discipline

 Doctrine before WWI: “War is the continuation of politics by other means.” Carl von
Clausewitz (1792 – 1831)
 Up until WWI, war was even (but not always!) stylized as something glorious: preventing
war was less of a political issue. “Enthusiasm” was however also propaganda (see e.g. FAZ,
2014 (in German)).
Europe, summer 1914 Documentary: “The Killing Fields”

Germany France Russia, Austra-Hungary, UK

Germany («Augusterlebnis»)

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1.4.2 1918 – 1945: (Disappointed) hopes

 WWI motivated to develop “science of peace” to

provide a firmer basis for preventing future wars
 First empirical studies of conflicts (e.g. war
frequencies)
 First model to describe “arms race” before the WWI
(Lewis F. Richardson’s – cf. later) League of Nations
 First chair of IR at the University College of Wales, (1920 – 1946)
Aberystwyth (1919)
Battle of the Somme (1916)
Article I:

The High Contracting Parties solemnly declare in the

names of their respective peoples that they condemn
recourse to war for the solution of international
controversies and renounce it as an instrument of
national policy in their relations with one another.

Battle of Stalingrad, winter

→ War no longer the continuation of politics (1942 – 1943)
Kellogg-Briand Pact, 1928
(Clausewitz cf. later), but criminal act
(signatories US, UK, Germany,
France, Italy) Defines war as a criminal act
17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 45
1.4.3 1945 – 1965: Nuclear strategy and early peace research

 Development of nuclear strategy

RAND corporation established in 1948 (MAD doctrine)
 Game theory: John von Neumann & John Nash (mathematicians, cf. later)
 Thomas Schelling (economist; power to hurt, equilibrium focal point, credible commitment,
brinkmanship, cf. later)
 Bernard Brodie (Military strategist, “American Clausewitz”)
 … Atomic bomb mushroom cloud of
“Little Boy” over Hiroshima, 1945
 Establishment peace promotion and research organizations
 United Nations
 Peace research institutes (International Peace Research Association, Peace Research Lab St. Louis, CASBS
Stanford, PRIO in Oslo, Conflict research society London, …), narrow agenda by North American pragmatists
vs. wider Agenda of European (Scandinavian) structuralists
 Natural and medical scientists engage in societal questions arising as a consequence of their discoveries
 Academic journals
Art. 1: The Purposes - Journal of Conflict Resolution (1957)
of the United - Journal of Peace Research (1964)
Nations are to
 Organizational behavior and labor management relations (e.g. Mary Parker Follett in 1942)
maintain
international peace  Inter-disciplinarity rises
and security […] - Game theory, (social) psychology, systems theory
- Topics: early warning and conflict prevention; search for peaceful relations between rules and ruled, western and non-
western, humankind and nature, race ethnic relations etc. 17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 46
1.4.4 1965 – 1989: Nuclear détente

 Main topics:
 Avoiding nuclear war
 Removing inequalities and injustices in the global system
 Achieving ecological balance and control
 Contributions of peace researchers to end Cold War:
development of defensive, non-provocative military posture Leonid Brezhnev and Jimmy Carter sign the
 More emphasis on mediation (Track I and Track II) SALT II arms limitation treaty in Vienna on
 Several “Problem-solving workshops” to diminish science-practice 18 June 1979.
gap
 Principled negotiation approaches by the Harvard School
 Roger Fisher and William Ury: “Getting to Yes”(1981)
 PON Negotiation journal (1985)
 Building up experience in family conciliation, labor and
community mediation, alternative dispute resolution (ADR)

Michael Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan

sign INF treaty, 1987

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1.4.5 1989 –2001: Transition to a new world order

 End of the Cold War: from bi-polar to uni-polar And later to multi-polar

 Increased activity of NGOs

 Major topics:
 Conflict complexities
 Asymmetric power
Fall of the Berlin Wall, November 1991
 Cultural diversity
 Intractability
 Scholarly literature with more emphasis on
 Track II diplomacy
 Peacebuilding
 Sustainable conflict prevention measures: conflict resolution and
transformation instead of mere conflict management, not just “balance of
power”
 From ‘national security’ to ‘human security’

An Agenda for Peace, 1992

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 48

Switzerland only joined in 2002
Democracy not clearly
defined (ex. China)
1.4.6 2001 – today: new actors, new trends, new methods

Many different developments, for example:

 Terrorism
 “Simply evil” vs. “Complex phenomenon with own roots and viewpoint”
 Absolute terrorism (no willingness to enter political discourse, leaders often
hidden, often use suicide attacks) vs. traditional/contingent terrorism
(negotiations possible) ex. IRA
 Nationalist-separatist vs. social revolutionist vs. religious fundamentalist
 Cosmopolitan conflict resolution Twin tower attack, 2001 → War on terror
 Multi-stakeholder approach (e.g. states, NGO, Track II, civil societies, individuals,
etc.),
 Interdisciplinarity: classical diplomacy, preventive diplomacy, unofficial diplomacy,
humanitarian intervention, reconciliation, peacekeeping, peacemaking,
peacebuilding, etc.
 Continued focus on ‘Human Security’
 Data science and conflict prediction
 Starting from linear-regression models to neural networks and NLP
 More difficult for “unstructured/rule-breaking” situations (secession, unification)
because past country-level data offers fewer insights (Cederman & Weidman,
Science 2017)

17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 51

 1.4.7 Timeline: conflict resolution research in the context of world politics
Better technology
and balistic missile
technology

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
First chair in Research focus on arms races Center for Advanced Study in the Focus on Focus on Focus on
international (e.g. Richardson model, see Behavioral Sciences founded 1954 at • Nuclear war avoidance • Conflict • Conflict
relations later), war frequencies, Stanford • Global inequality and complexities prediction
(Wales, 1919) revolutions, peace making injustice avoidance • Asymmetric • Cosmopolitan
Scientific Journals:
(“science of peace) • Ecological studies power conflict
• Journal of Conflict Resolution (1957)
• Cultural diversity resolution
• Journal of Peace Research (1964) Nuclear détente
• Peacemaking • Terrorism
Interdisciplinarity increases (strategy, Building up experience in • Peacebuilding • …
(social) psychology, empirics (Correlates family conciliation, labor • Human security
of War project launched in 1963)) mediation etc.
Topics: conflict prevention, rules and “Harvard method of
ruled, Western and non-Western, negotiation”
humankind and nature, … • Negotiation journal (1985)
17.09.2020 | Philip Grech | 52
1.5 Summary
2 definitions, both
concepts need to be
 What is ‘conflict’? kept appart
 Conflict as a misalignment of interest: unavoidable
 Inefficient outcomes as a consequence of misaligned interests: try to avoid
 Components: power, number of involved parties, composition, external involvement, attitudes,
domain, means, issues,
 Phases in a conflict: Conflict prevention, management, containment, settlement, resolution,
transformation Different phases of a conflicht and for each
phase there is a way to "handle" it.
 Historic development of the discipline
 Serious development as a discipline only after WW I
 1945-65: nuclear strategy, peace promotion/research organizations, interdisciplinarity rising
 1965-89: nuclear détente; rising of principled and integrative negotiation approach, alternative dispute
resolution (ADR)
 1989-01: transition to a new world order (bi-polar to uni-polar transition), shift of conflict types, broader
approach to conflict resolution (track II diplomacy, peacebuilding, …), from national security to human security
 2001-today: terrorism, cosmopolitan conflict resolution, data science & conflict prediction

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