AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

AESO 2020
Long-term Transmission Plan

FILED JANUARY 2020

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Contents
1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

1.1 2020 LTP highlights 3

Generation integration plans 4

Distributed energy resources 5

Near-term regional transmission plan highlights 6

Longer-term system plans 7

2.0 BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES 8

2.1 Stakeholder consultation and engagement 9

2.2 Economic, social and environmental considerations 10

3.0 FORECAST PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY 11

Load 12

Generation 12

3.1 Forecast scenario 12

Reference Case 12

High Cogeneration Sensitivity 15

Alternate Renewables Policy 15

High Load Growth 16

Low Load Growth 16

4.0 TRANSMISSION PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENTS 18

4.1 2020 LTP development strategy 18

4.2 Overview of existing transmission system 18

Current load and generation profile 19

Existing transmission system 19

The information contained in this document is published in accordance with the AESO’s legislative obligations and is for information
purposes only. As such, the AESO makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular
purpose with respect to the information contained herein, whether express or implied. While the AESO has made every attempt to ensure
information is obtained from reliable sources, the AESO is not responsible for any errors or omissions. Consequently, any reliance placed
on the information contained herein is at the reader’s sole risk.

Table of Contents
AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

4.3 Transmission system assessments 22

4.4 Telecommunication network plan 23

4.5 Transmission capability assessments to integrate additional generation 25

South and Central East 25

Northwest, Northeast and Edmonton 30

4.6 Distributed energy resources 34

4.7 Energy storage 36

4.8 Near-term regional transmission plans 38

Northwest Planning Region 38

Northeast Planning Region 42

Edmonton Planning Region 46

Central Planning Region 50

South Planning Region 54

Calgary Planning Region 58

5.0 LONGER-TERM SYSTEM PLANS 61

Reference Case 62

High Cogeneration Sensitivity 63

Alternate Renewables Policy 63

High Load Growth 64

6.0 CONCLUSIONS 66

7.0 GLOSSARY OF TERMS 68

Table of Contents
 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

1.0 Executive summary

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Executive summary
The 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan (2020 LTP) describes how the
Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) plans to develop Alberta’s
electricity transmission system over the next 20 years.

The Long-term Transmission Plan (LTP) is the AESO’s 20-year forward-looking blueprint of how
the transmission system needs to be developed to support continued economic growth in Alberta.
Updated every two years, the LTP provides for a safe and reliable electricity system that enables a
fair, efficient and openly competitive electricity market, which is key to the economic well-being and
continued prosperity of Alberta.
Consistent with global trends, Alberta’s electricity industry is in a state of transformation, due in
part to evolving technology, policies, and social and economic drivers that affect future generation
development and load growth. The diversity of the province’s fuel sources is also evolving.
Historically, coal was Alberta’s primary fuel source, providing on-demand generation through
the bulk transmission 240 kilovolt (kV) network. The fuel source profile and transmission system
began to change due to growth of the oil and gas industry, with the oil sands sector contributing
significantly to both load and generation. With coal retirement on the horizon through to 2030,
transmission planning and development must continue to evolve, accommodating potential
conversions of coal to gas facilities and the prospective development of wind and solar resources.
The 2020 LTP seeks to optimize the use of the existing transmission system, and plan development of
new transmission in a timely manner to provide for the safe, dependable and efficient delivery of electricity
across Alberta, wherever and whenever it is needed. Recognizing that the electricity industry has entered
a transformational change, the AESO has continued to evolve its approach to planning. This is reflected in
the use of broad scenarios in the planning process to identify potential, yet flexible, transmission system
upgrades within this 2020 LTP. The AESO 2019 Long-term Outlook (2019 LTO), which serves as the basis
for the 2020 LTP, utilizes five scenarios to forecast the range of potential future states associated with
evolving policies, technologies, fuel sources, and social and economic drivers in Alberta.

1.0 Executive summary 1

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

In June 2018, the AESO published a Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration
(2018 Capability Assessment) as an update to the Renewables Generation Integration Plan section of
the 2017 LTP. The 2018 Capability Assessment determined the capability of the existing transmission
system to integrate renewables generation within central east and southern Alberta, and included
the projects selected in Round 1 of the Renewable Electricity Program (REP).
An update was completed in 2019 as the REP Rounds 2 and 3 progressed. These capability
assessments are useful indicators for current and prospective market participants, providing
direction on where capability is available and optimal areas to situate projects to connect to the
system. When investors and market participants site new generation close to existing and planned
infrastructure, it supports effective utilization of transmission infrastructure, which is beneficial to
both the AESO and its stakeholders.
The AESO is committed to ensuring that all forms of generation–regardless of location or type–can
be reliably connected to the transmission system. With capability assessments completed for the
central east and southern areas of Alberta, additional assessments for generation integration in the
Northeast, Northwest and Edmonton Planning Regions were completed for the 2020 LTP.
The 2020 LTP provides guidance related to the pace and type of transmission developments anticipated
in the future, and takes into account how forecasting inputs may impact need and timing.
All transmission projects identified in the 2020 LTP will undergo further review prior to progressing
towards implementation, and are subject to change based on new information that may become available.
Through this approach, the AESO will adjust planned transmission projects as required, and will be
prepared for a wide variety of economic and electric system changes that Alberta may face in the future.
Since mid-2014, the outlook for economic growth within the province has been revised downward,
primarily in response to changes in the price outlook for crude oil. The downward revision of oil
prices and economic growth for Alberta is consistent with industry outlook, and results in lower load
growth than anticipated in previous AESO LTPs.

A complementary integration capability interactive map featuring

240 kV transmission lines and substations, as well as the location of
projects selected for the REP, was introduced with the publication of the
first Transmission Capability Assessment for Renewables Integration.

View the Optimal Integration Capability Interactive Map at: www.aeso.ca/grid/ltp/capability

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The five scenarios from the 2019 LTO that are studied in the 2020 LTP include:
„ R eference Case−aligns with the most recent information pertaining to Alberta’s electricity
framework and governing policies, and serves as the AESO’s base case to plan the system
in the near term (five-year horizon up to 2024), and one of the scenarios for the longer term
(five+ years).
„ H igh Cogeneration Sensitivity−assesses the long-term transmission needs associated
with rapid cogeneration additions in the Fort McMurray area to support oil sands efficiency
and emission reduction gains.
„ A lternate Renewables Policy−represents a faster pace of renewables development on
both the transmission and distribution networks, compared to the Reference Case.
„ H igh Load Growth−provides the basis to pressure test the transmission plans developed
under stronger economic growth that leads to higher load in the longer-term planning horizons;
specifically, this scenario reflects stronger growth in oil and gas development activities.
„ Low Load Growth−assumes load grows at a slower pace than anticipated under the
Reference Case. This scenario is intended to capture and reflect the impacts of higher
adoption rates of behind-the-fence (BTF) generation and higher concentrations of distributed
energy resources (DER) in urban areas, such as rooftop solar systems. The impact on the
transmission system as a result of the slower pace of growth is investigated.

Using different scenarios allows for the development of a resilient, yet flexible, long-term
transmission plan. The 2020 LTP ensures the transmission network in Alberta remains reliable,
with planned developments that cover various scenarios, while at the same time is designed to
adjust quickly should material shifts in need occur.
The 2020 LTP satisfies the AESO’s mandate as stated in the province’s Electric Utilities Act (EUA)
and Transmission Regulation (T-Reg). By maintaining flexibility in its planning, the AESO is well-
positioned to adapt to shifts in Alberta’s load and generation needs. Whenever appropriate, the
2020 LTP considers the use of milestones to trigger the construction of approved transmission
projects only as existing transmission system capability is utilized. This will assist in managing
forecast uncertainty of future generation developments, and allow the AESO to ensure the timing
of transmission infrastructure developments align with committed generation development plans,
providing confidence to attract needed investment in Alberta.

1.1 2020 LTP HIGHLIGHTS

„ T he 2020 LTP identifies 20 transmission developments proposed over the next five years
valued at approximately $1.4 billion. Each of these developments will require detailed
needs analysis and regulatory approvals prior to proceeding. Overall, these developments
are estimated to increase average transmission rates by about $0.50—$0.70 per megawatt
hour, starting in 2025.

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AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Generation integration plans

Northern Regions
With all coal-fired generation expected to retire by 2030, new conventional gas-fired generation
is expected to replace Alberta’s existing coal fleet capacity. As part of the 2020 LTP, the AESO
performed integration capability assessments for conventional generation in areas where the
utilization of existing transmission infrastructure offers an advantage. The capability assessments
were informed by developer interest and active projects in the AESO project list. The studies are
intended to provide guidance to generation developers to identify the areas with existing and
planned transmission system capability, as well as to assess system reliability needs in the short
and long term. The capability studies focused on the Northeast, Northwest, and Edmonton Planning
Regions, as these areas are rich in natural gas resources and are traditionally where significant
conventional generation development has taken place.
The existing bulk transmission system was found to be capable of integrating new conventional
generation, especially at or close to brownfield sites. The areas with available transmission
integration capability include Wabamun Lake in the Edmonton Planning Region, where a maximum
of approximately 2,400 megawatts (MW) of conventional gas-fired generation can be accommodated
in conjunction with the area’s existing coal-fired generation. Main 240 kV substations in the
northwest, including the Bickerdike substation near Edson, are capable of accommodating between
approximately 100 MW to 1,000 MW of conventional generation. With Fox Creek area developments
in place, the Bickerdike substation can accommodate approximately 300 MW, and the Sagitawah
substation (near the Whitecourt substation) can accommodate approximately 1,150 MW.
In the Fort McMurray area, there is sufficient transmission system capability to integrate further oil
sands development. From a cogeneration perspective, the system (with the Fort McMurray West [FMW]
line) is currently capable of integrating approximately 500 MW of additional conventional generation.
Approximately 300 MW of additional integration capability could be enabled by a 240 kV system upgrade
in the area, bringing the total generation integration capability to approximately 800 MW. Alternatively,
the Fort McMurray East (FME) 500 kV transmission line would increase the transmission system
capability to approximately 1,800 MW. The planning assessments confirmed the need for the FME
line in the High Cogeneration Scenario, which could be advanced to an earlier timeframe depending
on the pace of cogeneration developments.
In areas of high renewables development potential where conventional generation can also
develop—mainly the southwest, southeast and central east areas of the province—renewables
capability assessments define existing and planned transmission system generation integration
capability. However, the transmission system capability to integrate conventional generation in
these areas could be slightly lower than those estimated for renewables due to coincident higher
generation dispatch levels of existing thermal assets.

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 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Central and Southern Regions

The 2020 LTP considers two different paces of renewables development. Under the Alternate
Renewables Policy Scenario, there are more renewables connecting to the grid. To enable these
anticipated renewables, the AESO developed a staged plan based on milestones. First, the Provost-
to-Edgerton and Nilrem-to-Vermilion (PENV) Transmission Development, approved in 2019, is
expected to provide approximately 350 MW of additional renewables integration capability.
The Central East Transfer-out (CETO) and Chapel Rock-to-Pincher Creek (CRPC) Transmission
Developments are the most effective projects to integrate renewables generation in central east
and southwest Alberta. The CETO development is expected to enable approximately 700 MW of
renewables. In the southwest, CRPC is expected to enable approximately 600 MW of renewables
generation. Depending on the pace and location of renewables developments, each project will
have associated milestones to trigger project construction once the renewables projects themselves
reach a stage of certainty to proceed. Other projects were investigated to further enable renewables
integration. CRPC and CETO were confirmed to offer the best value in terms of incremental
renewables integration capability versus associated costs and impacts.

Distributed energy resources

Currently, there are approximately 500 MW of DER connected to the Alberta electric system.
With this level of DER capacity, the AESO is confident the existing requirements and practices
allow for the management of transmission system reliability. However, as additional DER develop,
especially in the urban areas, the technical requirements and standards will have to evolve to
support continued reliable integration without negative impacts to the transmission system.
The AESO investigated the integration of up to 300 MW of additional DER in major urban areas,
which reflects an approximate saturation level of solar resources in those areas. The assessment
revealed that transmission system capability to integrate renewables in the south and central east is
reduced by approximately 60 MW for every 100 MW of DER integrated in the City of Calgary, and by
approximately 100 MW or higher for every 100 MW of DER integrated in the southwest, southeast
and central east areas of the province. The integration of moderate DER in the cities of Red Deer
and Edmonton will not reduce transmission system integration capability.

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) are small physical and

virtual devices that are deployed and connected across the grid
or distribution system. DER systems are decentralized and flexible
technologies, typically close to the load they serve, and usually
behind the meter. They can be used individually or in aggregate to
provide value to the grid, individual customers, or both.

1.0 Executive summary 5

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Near-term regional transmission plan highlights

The following regional highlights summarize potential transmission system developments needed
over the next five years:

„ Northwest Planning Region

— 240 kV transmission enhancement in the Fox Creek area to address transfer-in

constraints and reinforce local supply.
— 144 kV transmission line and voltage support devices in the Grande Prairie/Grande
Cache area to address local area supply.
„ Northeast Planning Region

— Additional voltage support device in the Fort McMurray area.

„ Edmonton Planning Region

— Transmission enhancement in the City of Edmonton’s 72 kV system to maintain

reliable long-term supply within the city.
— Additional 500/240 kV transformation capacity to provide additional flexibility in the
bulk transmission system in the region.
„ Central Planning Region

— 240 kV transmission line to increase transfer-out capability to integrate additional

generation.
— Additional voltage support devices at three locations within the region.
„ South Planning Region

— 500 kV Chapel Rock substation, 240 kV transmission line and a voltage support
device to increase transfer-out capability to integrate additional generation and help
restore the Alberta—British Columbia (B.C.) intertie.
— Additional transmission enhancements to help restore the Alberta—B.C. intertie to its
original path rating.
— E xpansion of the existing Tilley substation near Brooks to 240 kV operation to
reinforce local load supply.
— Additional voltage support devices at two locations within the region, as well as
additional transmission reinforcements near Lethbridge.
„ Calgary Planning Region

— Short-circuit mitigation for the City of Calgary.

— 138 kV transmission line near Chestermere to reinforce local load supply.

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 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Longer-term system plans

The following scenario-based highlights summarize potential transmission system developments
required for the longer term.

„ Reference Case

— Additional 240 kV transmission line and upgrade of existing lines in the Central Planning
Region to further increase system capability to integrate additional generation.
— Back-to-back high-voltage direct current (HVDC) converter for the Montana—Alberta
Tie Line (MATL) to completely restore the Alberta—B.C. intertie to its original path rating.
— Additional 500 kV or 240 kV developments in the Edmonton Planning Region to
enhance the bulk transmission system.
„ Alternate Renewables Policy (Faster-Pace Renewables)

— Inclusion of Reference Case developments.

— E astern Alberta Transmission Line (EATL) conversion to bi-pole operation for
additional transfer capability.
„ High Load Growth

— Inclusion of Reference Case developments.

— Additional 240 kV developments in the Northwest Planning Region to reinforce local
load supply.
„ High Cogeneration

— Inclusion of Reference Case developments.

— D evelopment of the approved 500 kV FME transmission line and 240 kV transmission
line upgrade in the Northeast Planning Region to increase system capability for Fort
McMurray to integrate additional cogeneration.

1.0 Executive summary 7

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

2.0 Background and objectives

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Background and
objectives
The AESO works with industry partners to keep electricity flowing throughout
the province. Our system controllers balance supply and demand 24/7,
ensuring four million Albertans have power when and where they need it.

The AESO is required by provincial legislation to operate the transmission system in a safe, reliable
and economic manner and plan a transmission network that meets electricity demand today and
in the future. It is governed by an independent board comprising nine members appointed by the
Minister of Energy. Following the principles of sound governance, the AESO balances the interests
of a wide range of stakeholders in order to fulfil its legislative mandate.
The AESO’s duties and responsibilities related to transmission planning are prescribed in the
Province of Alberta’s EUA and T-Reg.

These duties include the following:

„ D etermine future requirements of the provincial grid, identify transmission system
enhancements needed to meet those requirements, and arrange to implement
those enhancements in a timely and efficient manner and in accordance with
statutory obligations.
„ P repare and maintain a transmission system plan that forecasts, on a 20-year
horizon, system conditions and requirements to accommodate future load growth and
anticipated generation additions.
„ Direct the safe, reliable and economic operation of the interconnected electric system.

„ O perate the power pool and facilitate the electricity market in a manner that is fair,
efficient and openly competitive.
„ Provide transmission access service consistent with an approved transmission tariff.

„ Manage and recover the costs associated with line losses and ancillary services.

„ C onduct a fair and open competitive process to determine the successful proponent
who will develop, design, build, finance, own, operate, and maintain identified major
transmission infrastructure in Alberta.

The AESO’s transmission system planners and economists analyze provincial electricity consumption
patterns using data from a variety of sources to determine where electricity demand is likely to grow.
The AESO also forecasts the type, capacity and location of generation anticipated to efficiently meet
electricity demand, enable the coal-fired generation phase-out, and integrate renewables generation
across a range of scenarios to determine potential new transmission infrastructure that may be required.

2.0 Background and objectives 8

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

The 2020 LTP further takes into consideration the following:

„ Technical considerations, reliability standards and operating criteria that provide for
system reliability and a well-functioning market.
„ Key milestones fundamental to transmission development projects, including planned
need dates and staging of developments to allow for flexibility.
„ Feedback provided through transmission-connected customers, market participants,
municipalities and other stakeholders.

The objective of the 2020 LTP is to present the AESO’s vision of how Alberta’s electric transmission
system needs to be developed to support Alberta’s economic and energy outlook over the next 20
years, and identifies the necessary developments to meet the need of emerging changes.

The 2020 LTP is designed to:

„ Ensure the transmission system’s ability to accommodate short- and long-term growth
and to ensure continued reliability.
„ Enable new technological advancement and more efficient use of energy, such as the
development of DER in urban areas and energy storage facilities.
„ Enable efficient renewables development in Alberta, in consideration of a potentially faster
pace of development based on economics, policy, and other factors.
„ Identify where existing transmission system capability is available and planned, providing
direction to facilitate the efficient use of the transmission system and to ensure timely and
economic resource development.
„ Support and enable Alberta’s economic recovery.

„ S atisfy the AESO’s mandate according to the EUA and T-Reg to provide an update every
two years, and file it for information with the provincial Minister of Energy and the Alberta
Utilities Commission (AUC).

2.1 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION AND ENGAGEMENT

The AESO engages Albertans across the province to develop the transmission system. This
consultation process provides the AESO with a broad perspective and valuable input that is then
used to assist in establishing forecast scenarios and corresponding transmission planning results.
Over the past year, the AESO conducted targeted LTP consultation and information sessions with
transmission facility owners (TFOs), distribution facility owners (DFOs), industry associations, and
specific regional municipalities. Additional information and feedback on the LTP was obtained by
AESO representatives who were engaging with landowners and other stakeholders on transmission
development projects through Participant Involvement Programs for Needs Identification Document
(NID) Applications.
The AESO recognizes that stakeholder experience and expertise helps to improve the quality and
implementation of decisions on the LTP, as well as a range of other regulatory issues, such as
market rules and the tariff. In late 2019, the AESO introduced a draft Stakeholder Engagement
Framework, which was developed to guide the AESO’s engagement approach. Stakeholder
feedback is being solicited to ensure the approach continues to allow their needs and interests to
be consistently, transparently and meaningfully considered.

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 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

2.2 ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS

Public interest and the effects of transmission developments—from economic, environmental and
social perspectives—are primary considerations in the planning, design, construction, location
and operation of transmission infrastructure. Identified early in the planning process, these
considerations are further assessed as a transmission development plan progresses through the
AESO’s NID Application process, and are evaluated during AUC regulatory proceedings.
The AESO is not directly responsible for the detailed siting and routing of transmission developments.
This process falls to TFOs and the AUC. However, the AESO does consider a variety of factors when
preparing a NID Application, including high-level landowner, visual and environmental impacts.
When carrying out its mandate, the AESO is required by Section 16.1 of the EUA to act in
accordance with applicable Alberta Land Stewardship Act (ALSA) plans. When project needs
dictate, the AESO participates in ALSA regional planning activities as part of its regional planning,
and takes the objectives and outcomes of applicable ALSA regional plans into account.

The decisions the AESO makes help to shape Alberta’s economic

prosperity; stakeholder feedback is a key part of the processes that
the AESO undertakes to reach decisions.

2.0 Background and objectives 10

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

3.0
Forecast process
and methodology
 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Forecast process
and methodology
Alberta’s competitive electricity market determines investment in generation;
the LTO provides a view of what generation is expected to develop to meet
forecast demand and ensure a reliable supply of power now and in the future.

The AESO’s most recent forecast, the 2019 LTO, was published in September 2019 and is a key
input for the 2020 LTP. The 2019 LTO is the source for load and generation forecasts across several
scenarios. Key elements of the 2019 LTO are outlined in this section. For additional information,
please refer to the document at www.aeso.ca/grid/forecasting.
The 2019 LTO was developed during a period of uncertainty and transformation of Alberta’s
electricity industry. Changes in economics, government, policies, technology, and the way power
is produced and consumed can significantly impact load growth and development of generation.
To account for these uncertainties and understand the effect of alternate potential outcomes, the
AESO developed a series of scenarios in addition to its main corporate outlook.

The 2019 LTO is robust and comprehensive, and designed to align with current and expected
trends. The following actions were undertaken in developing the plan:
„ T he most up-to-date information and best practices in forecasting methodology and
tools were utilized.
„ T hird-party information was incorporated and validated against other credible forecasts
whenever possible.
„ Econometric models and market simulation were utilized to assist in forecasting
future generation.
„ Information was gathered, assumptions were confirmed, and outlooks were aligned
through consultation with stakeholders, including industry groups, generation
developers and DFOs.
„ T he province’s largest source of electricity industry expertise—our own employees—
were consulted.
„ N ew technologies and industries that have recently started impacting Alberta’s
electricity demand were considered.

3.0 Forecast process and methodology 11

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Load
The 2019 LTO load forecast was developed using a modelling framework and tool based on SAS
Energy Forecasting (a load-forecasting software) that models hourly load data and drivers, and
forecasts hourly load out 20+ years into the future. The tool models Alberta load across different
granularities, i.e., point-of-delivery (POD), areas, regions, and the whole province, and uses historic
load and input variables such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, employment, oil
sands production, temperature, time of day, time of week, and time of year. The forecast includes
the economic variables outlook, and the weather profile for the 90th percentile of the past 10 years
of historical weather.
A reconciliation process is carried out to ensure that the POD, area and regional forecasts add up to
the Alberta Internal Load (AIL) forecast. The econometric modelling and the locational reconciliation
process in the 2019 LTO is an improvement from previous LTOs. POD forecasts rely on economic
inputs to forecast load and the reconciliation process adjusts POD, area and regional forecasts
based on the relative size of each site. New load modifiers that capture new load behaviors not
apparent in the historical data are then layered on top of the reconciled output.

Generation
The LTO generation forecast is premised on sufficient generation capacity being developed to
reliably meet demand. Generation in Alberta is developing through competitive market forces, and
the LTO generation forecast is an assessment of what the competitive market would develop, taking
into account the resources available and impacts of costs and policies on investment decisions.
The AESO uses a market simulation tool to assist in determining the likely future generation outlook.
This tool is a cost-production model that applies economic principles, dispatch simulation and
bidding strategies to model the relationship between supply and demand. It considers fundamental
drivers such as demand, fuel prices and renewables generation profiles.
The 2019 LTO itself is not an assessment of the feasibility of the market’s ability to deliver the
forecasted generation; rather, it informs the level of generation that is expected to be required in the
long term to reliably meet demand. In considering what generation is likely to develop, the AESO
reviews the characteristics of generation technologies including costs, operating characteristics,
resource availability, and market behaviour. Each generation technology has different considerations
and drivers that developers take into account when making investment decisions.

3.1 FORECAST SCENARIOS

The 2019 LTO utilized a set of scenarios to evaluate transmission system capability and potential
expansion needs over the next 20 years. Following is a summary of the scenarios utilized in the
2020 LTP.

Reference Case
The 2019 LTO Reference Case was applied as the base case for both the near-term and longer-term
2020 LTP assessments; differences between the scenarios are immaterial in the near term.
The Reference Case is consistent with information available at the time of the 2019 LTO’s
development, including announcements made by the Government of Alberta, the Government of
Canada and market participants.

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Key Assumptions

Load
The Reference Case load growth is based on an economic-driven AIL forecast which is then
adjusted for energy efficiency. The energy efficiency assumption was derived using historic energy
efficiency gains in Alberta, and is intended to capture expectations of policy- and non-policy-driven
energy efficiency gains within the province. The efficiency improvements are assumed to impact all
sectors of the economy including oil sands, residential and commercial load.
The impact of the energy efficiency assumption on the load forecast is relatively small. Energy
efficiency gains are expected to come from improved technology in the oil sands and improved
efficiency in residential, commercial and non-industrial sectors. The overall impact of these energy
efficiency improvements result in a 1.7 per cent or 251 MW decrease in winter peak by 2039,
compared to no energy efficiency applied to the forecast.

Generation
The forecast assumes that market mechanisms will provide adequate support to stimulate the
generation investment required to maintain reliability.

Renewables generation development

The Reference Case assumes that the level of renewables development is based on known
policy-supported projects, including the REP Rounds 1, 2 and 3, Alberta Infrastructure support
for solar, and development by additional market-driven investments.

Coal retirements and conversions to gas

The Reference Case assumes that all of the approximately 5,275 MW of coal-fired capacity will
be converted to natural gas-fired generation, beginning in the year 2021. These are assumed to
operate as coal-to-gas units for no longer than 10 years beyond their end of useful life. Furthermore,
they are assumed to retire in order of vintage and at a rate of no more than two units per year.
The generation forecast reflects the need for new generation resulting from both the retirement of
existing units and an increase in demand. The current coal-fired capacity of 5,574 MW is expected
to retire over the 20-year forecast period, resulting in a need for considerable new generation.
The timing of new generation additions is expected in the 2030s as the coal-fired unit lives
are extended through conversion to natural gas. Once the converted units begin to retire, the
generation build will need to continue at a rate sufficient to replace the retiring capacity.

Generation location

For the purposes of transmission system planning and to fulfill the requirements of the EUA
and T-Reg:
„ Locations are assumed for future generation.

„ G eneration technologies are assigned to planning regions based on the likelihood of that
technology developing in a particular region.
„ Technology location considerations include utilizing existing infrastructure (such as
brownfield sites), fuel resources (such as the location of strong wind and solar resources),
future planned transmission enhancements, and developer information.
„ W ithin each region, unit-specific locations are assigned to utilize the existing transmission
system capability and minimize the need for transmission reinforcements.

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AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Renewable generation additions, primarily wind generation, are split between the AESO’s South and
Central Planning Regions, with some resources anticipated to develop in the Northwest Planning
Region. The actual location of future wind and solar generation, including their development
timeframe, will ultimately depend upon developer decisions. The locations of renewables generation
stated within the 2019 LTO represent a reasonable assumption, based on where the best potential
resources are available.
Combined-cycle and simple-cycle generation additions are assumed to primarily occur at brownfield
coal sites and within regions of previously identified projects. While both brownfield and greenfield
sites are viable options and many greenfield sites have been proposed, brownfield sites have been
assumed within the LTO due to development advantages, including existing infrastructure and lower
development costs compared to greenfield sites.
Cogeneration developments are primarily assumed to occur within the established oil sands
production areas of Fort McMurray and Cold Lake. In addition, cogeneration locations are assigned
to regions with petrochemical growth in areas such as Fort Saskatchewan. This assumption is
aligned with the Reference Case load forecast.

Forecast outcomes

Load
In the near term, the AESO expects load growth in line with historic trends due to recently completed
and existing under-construction oil sands projects alongside improved economics in 2019 and 2020.
In the medium and long term, once all oil sands projects under construction are complete, the AESO
expects that load growth will follow a slower long-run trend as small-scale expansions at oil sands
sites and slower GDP growth become the new norm.
The Reference Case load forecast for the 2019 LTO is moderately higher than the 2017 LTO
Reference Case in the near term. This increase is due to a higher oil sands outlook and the addition
of new load which impacted recent load growth. In the longer term, however, the 2019 LTO load
forecast is very similar to the 2017 LTO load forecast due to a similar long-term economic outlook
for Alberta.

Generation
A forecast of installed generation capacity was developed based on the 2019 LTO assumptions
and methodology. In total, 13 gigawatts of new generation capacity is forecast to be added by
2039. Coal-fired generation is converted to natural gas, and eventually replaced with new efficient
combined-cycle and simple-cycle generation. Renewables development occurs in the near term
from the REP Rounds 1, 2, and 3, and developments afterward are driven by market-based
investment. These results indicate some continued growth in renewables without a government-
driven procurement mandate, and an increase in natural gas-fired generation leading to the
continued convergence between the power and natural gas markets.
Additional details on the Reference Case, Load and Generation Scenarios, including regional data,
can be found within the 2019 LTO and 2019 LTO data file available at www.aeso.ca/grid/forecasting.

14 3.0 Forecast process and methodology

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

High Cogeneration Sensitivity

Cogeneration development decisions will continue to be dynamic, with oil sands emission limits,
carbon pricing and the potential need to replace aging steam boilers—all factors in decisions for
existing and future cogeneration sites. There are a number of potential cogeneration projects
currently under consideration. The High Cogeneration Sensitivity Scenario considers a larger
amount of cogeneration developments compared to the Reference Case.

Assumptions
The main assumption of the High Cogeneration Sensitivity Scenario is a higher amount of
cogeneration will develop compared to the Reference Case. This sensitivity assumes that some
existing oil sands facilities replace existing coke boilers with cogeneration, and that future oil sands
developments with cogeneration increases the cogeneration unit size. This new cogeneration
capacity is incremental; additional oil sands load growth does not occur with the additional
capacity. This results in cogeneration additions that are similar to the High Load Growth Scenario,
although load is the same as the Reference Case load.

Forecast outcomes
In comparison with the Reference Case, the High Cogeneration Sensitivity Scenario results in
additional cogeneration development which defers and displaces both renewables and gas-fired
capacity. After the final REP projects are in service, wind additions are lower compared to the
Reference Case, as increased cogeneration reduces the expected profitability of wind because
of the incremental price-taking baseload energy. Additionally, combined-cycle and simple-cycle
are reduced as the need for dispatchable gas-fired capacity is reduced and deferred to later in
the forecast.

Alternate Renewables Policy

The Alternate Renewables Policy Scenario provides an outlook for the Alberta generation fleet if it
were driven by a renewable-energy target or policy that supports greater renewables development.
The drivers of this scenario include strong government support in order to achieve a goal of 30 per
cent of energy produced in Alberta from renewable energy sources by the year 2030, and a higher
carbon price of $30/tonne.

Assumptions
The Alternate Renewables Policy Scenario assumes the same load growth as the Reference Case.
The key assumption in this scenario is an increase in the amount of renewables compared to the
Reference Case. Assumed government support for renewables continues in line with observed
renewables portfolio standards common in other jurisdictions. The additions are weighted to the lowest-
cost renewables technology based on current estimates. As such, the main assumption is that wind
capacity grows by approximately 5,300 MW over the 20-year forecast period.

Forecast outcomes
The Alternate Renewables Policy Scenario has a large amount of renewables generation compared to
the Reference Case. Over 6,800 MW of wind and 1,000 MW of solar capacity are added to the fleet at
the end of the forecast period. Wind generation capacity is 28 per cent of the generation mix in 2039.
This results in more simple-cycle additions, along with less combined-cycle generation capacity.

3.0 Forecast process and methodology 15

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

High Load Growth

The High Load Growth Scenario assumes that Alberta’s economic growth is stronger, resulting
in the addition of a significant number of new load projects. Moreover, higher oil prices and new
pipelines constructed during the forecast period allow for larger oil sands expansions. Higher load
growth also arises from higher adoption rates of electric demand sources such as electric vehicles,
driven by lower battery prices, economies of scale, and federal incentives.

Assumptions
This scenario assumes a robust economic recovery beginning in 2021 led by the development of
major oil sands projects, many of which were previously postponed or deferred. The increase in oil
sands activity leads to higher growth in Calgary and Edmonton, as well as increased load growth in
northwest Alberta.
The majority of assumptions in this scenario remain the same as the Reference Case. The key difference
is that with higher load growth driven by oil, natural gas and petrochemical activities, corresponding
cogeneration levels are also higher. With increased growth in the oil sands, the amount of assumed
cogeneration growth is increased such that there is 2,295 MW of cogeneration development.

Forecast outcomes
This scenario has a compound annual peak load growth of 1.8 per cent to 2039. The High Load
Growth Scenario has the highest long-run load growth rate of all the scenarios with a compound
annual growth rate of 1.9 per cent to 2029, and 1.8 per cent to 2039. In comparison, the Reference
Case grows by 0.9 per cent from 2018 to 2039.
The primary impact of increased load growth is that more firm gas-fired generation is expected to
develop. Both combined-cycle and simple-cycle units are added earlier in the forecast. There is an
increase in the amount of cogeneration compared to the Reference Case. The level of renewables
additions is assumed to be marginally lower than the Reference Case.

Low Load Growth

The Low Load Growth Scenario tests the impacts of lower load growth corresponding to significantly
reduced oil sands and economic growth in Alberta. It assumes that Alberta’s reduced load growth
is due to low economic growth and other factors such as energy efficiency gains, onsite generation
development, and an increased adoption of photovoltaic (PV) rooftop solar.

Assumptions
This scenario assumes existing and under-construction oil sands projects remain operating, but no
new projects proceed. Current under-construction projects contribute to a rise in near-term load
growth, resulting in a peak load growth rate of 0.9 per cent to the year 2021.
The majority of assumptions in the Low Load Growth Scenario remain the same as the Reference
Case. The key difference is that with lower oil sands and load growth, corresponding cogeneration
levels are also lower. With decreased growth in the oil sands, the amount of assumed cogeneration
growth is reduced such that 90 MW of new cogeneration develops.

16 3.0 Forecast process and methodology

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Forecast outcomes
The long-run load growth in the Low Load Growth Scenario is 0.1 per cent annual growth over 20
years compared to the Reference Case of 0.9 per cent annual growth over 20 years. As described in
the load assumptions section, the decrease in the load outlook compared to the Reference Case is
due to a lower oil sands and economic outlook and an increased energy efficiency assumption.
Due to lower load growth of this scenario in comparison with the Reference Case, less generation
develops over the forecast horizon. The Low Load Growth Scenario has less overall development
from all technologies. Firm gas additions are mostly to replace coal and coal-to-gas retirements;
load is not a major driver of additions. Wind projects that have received contracts under the REP are
assumed to develop, while additional wind development is reduced 50 per cent compared to the
Reference Case.

Additional details of the previously described LTO scenarios can be found within the 2019 LTO and
2019 LTO data file available at www.aeso.ca/grid/forecasting.

The retirement of existing coal units over the 20-year forecast period,
coupled with an increase in demand, result in the system needing
considerable new generation to ensure a reliable supply of power to
meet load requirements.

3.0 Forecast process and methodology 17

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

4.0 Transmission planning

and developments
 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Transmission planning
and developments
The 2020 LTP is designed to be flexible to accommodate a
number of possible scenarios. Transmission developments will be
staged using milestones to ensure that transmission facilities are
ready and available at the right location and at the right time.

4.1 2020 LTP DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

The AESO’s 2020 LTP development strategy identifies the necessary transmission
developments to meet the need of emerging changes, and is intended to be responsive
to the needs of market participants, focusing on the following areas:
„ E nable new technological advancement and more efficient use of energy, such as
the development of DER in urban areas, and integration of energy storage facilities.
„ S how where transmission system capability is available and planned, facilitating use of
established infrastructure and providing locational signals to ensure timely and efficient
resource development.
„ Support and enable Alberta’s economic growth.

4.2 OVERVIEW OF EXISTING TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

Transmission developments are generally driven by load and generation, as the purpose of the
transmission system is to move power from generators to load. The location and density of load,
and the size and location of generation, dictate the capacity, location and configuration of the
transmission network required to serve the integrated system.

Investors in generation bear the risks of selecting the most cost-

effective fuel source, size and location of generation to maximize
their competitiveness in the wholesale power market.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 18

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Current load and generation profile

The load profile in Alberta is diverse, with a large percentage being comprised of industrial
customers, major urban centres, and some sparse rural areas. Rich in oil sands resources, the Fort
McMurray area represents a unique feature of industrial load makeup, accounting for approximately
one-third of the province’s load. The two largest urban centres, Calgary and Edmonton, also
account for approximately one-third of the load, with the South, Central and Northwest Planning
Regions accounting for the balance of demand. These regions are primarily industrial and
agricultural with sparse rural load.
Generation development in Alberta during the mid-to-late 1900s was primarily coal based, with the
majority located near Wabamun Lake, Stettler and Hanna. As the oil sands were developed in the
Fort McMurray area, a large amount of gas-fired cogeneration was added to support the heating
requirements of oil sands processing, while also generating electricity for local consumption and, in
many cases, providing surplus electricity to the Alberta grid.
The abundance of natural gas in the province, coupled with low prices, has resulted in the growth
of gas-fired generation facilities, the largest of which is the Shepard Energy Centre, an 860 MW
combined-cycle facility located in Calgary. Alberta has a relatively small amount of hydroelectric
generation (approximately 900 MW), which includes smaller plants on the Bow River and tributaries,
as well as the larger Bighorn and Brazeau plants in the North Saskatchewan watershed.
Renewable energy, specifically in the form of wind generation, has grown substantially over the
past 10 years to a total of about 1,500 MW in the south and central east areas of the province.
Alberta has significant renewable energy resource potential, namely wind and solar, in these areas.
Additional wind generation totaling about 1,400 MW was awarded as part of the REP Rounds 1, 2
and 3, with target commercial operation dates between 2019 and 2021.

Existing transmission system

Historically, Alberta’s transmission system was developed in response to load growth and
generating facilities constructed to meet the need. As coal-fired generation developed in the
Wabamun Lake area between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s, transmission infrastructure was
needed to connect the generation to major load centres in Calgary and Edmonton. In recent years,
oil sands development near Fort McMurray has driven transmission development to—and within—
that area. The transmission system has also been enhanced in the south and central east areas to
integrate new generation from those renewable-resource rich areas of the province.

Following the AESO’s identification of the need for transmission,

comprehensive planning and engineering studies present high-level
technical alternatives that will address the need. These alternatives
are then evaluated, compared and ranked based on their technical,
economic, environmental and social merits.

19 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Bulk transmission system

The bulk transmission system consists of 500 kV and 240 kV lines that move large amounts of power
from generation sources to load centres (Figure 4.2-1). A 500 kV network located primarily around
the Wabamun/Edmonton area serves as a central hub of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System
(AIES). This 500 kV network extends east to the Heartland substation in the Fort Saskatchewan
area, as well as north to the Thickwood Hills substation in the Fort McMurray area. Two 500 kV
HVDC lines connect the north 500 kV bulk system to the south. Near Calgary, the western HVDC
line connects to the 240 kV network and the 500 kV intertie with B.C. Near Brooks, the eastern
HVDC line connects to the regional 240 kV network. The HVDC lines are able to transfer power in
both directions. The 500 kV bulk system is supported by an underlying network of 240 kV lines.

Many components of this bulk transmission system were completed in the past 10 years.
These include:
„ F MW 500 kV Transmission Project−500 kV single circuit transmission line between
the Sunnybrook substation in the Wabamun Lake area and the new Thickwood Hills
substation southwest of Fort McMurray.
„ H eartland 500 kV Transmission Development−500 kV double circuit transmission
line between the Ellerslie substation and the Heartland substation to strengthen supply
into the industrial zone and to the northeast.
„ N orth-South Transmission Reinforcement−two 500 kV HVDC lines, EATL
and Western Alberta Transmission Line (WATL), connecting the north and south
planning areas.
„ South and West of Edmonton−240 kV and 138 kV transmission system enhancements.

„ R ed Deer Area Transmission Development−240 kV and 138 kV transmission system

reinforcements in the Red Deer area.
„ Foothills Area Transmission Development−240 kV and 138 kV enhancements in and
south of Calgary, including a new 240/138 kV substation near High River to accommodate
renewables generation in the south, as well as other Calgary area generation.
„ H anna Region Transmission Development Phase 1−240 kV and 144 kV
transmission developments in the Hanna, Sheerness and Battle River areas.
„ S outhern Alberta Transmission Reinforcement (SATR)−240 kV transmission
system reinforcements in southern Alberta to integrate renewables generation.

These reinforcements provide necessary transmission capacity to move power between the major
regions and strengthen the bulk transmission system.

Rich in oil sands resources, the Fort McMurray area represents

a unique feature of industrial load makeup, accounting for
approximately one-third of the province’s load. Over the past 10
years, load growth in this area has been the strongest of any region.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 20

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Figure 4.2-1: Existing bulk transmission system and existing generation (by size)

Fort
McMurray

Grande
Prairie

Edmonton

Coal
Gas
Hydro
Solar
Biomass/Other
Calgary
Wind
Existing Substation
Existing 240 kV Line Medicine
Existing 500 kV Line Lethbridge Hat
Size of circle reflects approximate
installed capacity of generation.

Date Prepared: 2019-Dec-11

21 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Regional transmission systems

Regional transmission systems take power from the bulk transmission system and move it to load-
serving substations that serve distribution systems. Major urban centres have concentrated systems
comprising several load-serving substations in a relatively small geographic area. In other areas,
regional transmission systems can be present in sparsely populated areas such as the south or
central parts of the province, where there are significant distances between substations and load.

Interties
As part of the North American electricity grid, Alberta’s interconnections with neighbouring systems
are an essential component of a reliable transmission system and competitive electricity market.
Alberta is one of the least interconnected systems in North America. With the third-largest peak
demand for electricity among all provinces in Canada at approximately 11,500 MW, Alberta’s
simultaneous intertie capability is approximately 10 per cent of our peak demand.

Currently, Alberta is interconnected with neighbouring systems through three paths:

„ B .C. Intertie −has an existing export capability of 1,000 MW and an import capability
of 800 MW.
„ Saskatchewan Intertie −is capable of transferring approximately 150 MW.

„ Montana Intertie −is capable of transferring approximately 300 MW.

4.3 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ASSESSMENTS

The 2020 LTP assesses the system using two different time frames:
„ N ear-term assessment (five years): The purpose of the near-term assessment is to
examine the transmission system on a regional basis in detail. The detailed assessment
allows the AESO to understand the regional needs for the next five years, resulting in higher-
level certainty in load and generation development trends. Transmission development plans
identified here are to mitigate violations observed during the assessment. Some of the plans
have also been identified in previous LTPs. These plans will still need to undergo further
need identification and alternative evaluation for the AESO to determine that a specific
project is needed. Only then would the AESO bring the project forward for regulatory
approval. Given the time required for these subsequent steps in the planning process, the
earliest any of the large projects identified in the near-term plan would be constructed is five
years in the future. However, the AESO continues to monitor developments in the system
and will prioritize the needed system investments to ensure the system remains reliable.
„ L onger-term assessment (five+ years): The longer-term assessment examines the
transmission system from a bulk, system-wide basis based on a range of future scenarios.
It also captures major effects of the various scenarios discussed in the forecast section. As
such, only outages on elements at 240 kV and above were assessed, and elements at 138
kV and above were monitored. The longer-term assessment is to provide the framework for
which the transmission system could develop in the longer term to allow the AESO to be
prepared for all possible future outcomes.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 22

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

4.4 TELECOMMUNICATION NETWORK PLAN

Alberta’s province-wide utility telecommunication network utilized by the electricity system is
essential to the reliable, efficient and safe operation of the grid. This sophisticated infrastructure
overlays the transmission system and is vital to monitoring, operating and protecting the
interconnected electric system and all reporting functions.
The utility telecommunication network carries critical telecommunication services used to protect,
monitor and control the transmission system. It helps to quickly isolate faulted elements to maintain
system stability, monitor transmission network integrity, protect equipment from unnecessary
damage, and allow system operators to respond to changes and take corrective action as needed.
Outages on the utility telecommunication network can require outages on the transmission system.
These critical services require the telecommunication network to be highly reliable and have
appropriate capacity.

The following are key benefits of the utility telecommunication network:

„ Enables coordinated monitoring, control and operation of the transmission system.

„ Enables larger power flows on transmission lines by facilitating faster fault-clearing times
and advanced protection schemes.
„ Enables the connection of additional and diverse generation on existing transmission lines.

„ Enables the connection of additional load on existing transmission lines.

„ Provides emergency voice and data telecommunication for effective power system
restoration.

The utility telecommunication network is a private network owned and operated by TFOs.
Utility telecommunications need to be highly reliable, available and functional under all and,
most importantly, severe operating conditions.

Technology, system evolution and the following technological trends affect the utility
telecommunication network:
„ Shift toward packet-based telecommunication equipment.

„ Further leveraging of telecommunication to optimize transmission system usage.

„ DER growth.

„ Distribution system applications that benefit the overall electric system.

„ Utilization of the utility telecommunication network by market participants to provide

required data to the AESO.
„ Lower-cost telecommunication solutions.

The utility telecommunication network is planned in coordination with the AESO and TFOs.
A telecommunication work group is in place with the major TFOs (AltaLink, ATCO, ENMAX and
EPCOR) and DFO (Fortis Alberta) in the province. As the operators and primary planners of their
utility telecommunication networks, the work group supports the AESO in the creation of the
wider 2020 Telecommunication Long-term Plan (2020 Telecommunication LTP). The AESO’s role
in telecommunication planning at the provincial level is to lead coordinated planning between the
utilities, provide long-term direction and identify inter-organizational opportunities.

23 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

In developing the 2020 Telecommunication LTP, which is primarily an update to the 2017
Telecommunication Long-term Plan, the AESO evaluated the current and future needs and drivers
for the utility telecommunication network. The 2020 Telecommunication LTP aligns with long-
term transmission planning, which is a major driver of new telecommunication development and
opportunities.
In planning the utility telecommunication network, critical and core services remain the primary
need drivers. Other services can be considered based on their benefit to the system.

The following are considered to be the critical and core telecommunication services:
„ Teleprotection.

„ Supervisory control and data acquisition.

„ Inter-control centre communication protocol.

„ Voice communications.

„ Mobile land radio communications.

Projects in the 2020 Telecommunication LTP have been selected to significantly reduce both
planned and unplanned outages on the telecommunication network, and therefore improve
the overall reliability and availability of the transmission system. Particular focus is placed on
improvements to the 500 kV and 240 kV transmission systems. As standard process, individual
business cases and justification documents are still required to support execution and determine
the required timing of proposed telecommunication projects.
The 2020 Telecommunication LTP lists key projects for the near-term (five year) and medium-term
(ten-year) time periods. When applicable, project alternatives are also outlined. The selected projects
follow the outlined planning guidelines and, where possible, leverage existing telecommunication
infrastructure.

The 2020 Telecommunication LTP outlines planning guidelines for the following:
„ Secondary paths.

„ Bandwidth capacity.

„ Fibre deployment.

„ Microwave radio deployment.

Other telecommunication initiatives are also specified that deal with voice and data communications
between utility control and operation centres, DER communications, mobile radio system upgrades,
and emergency restoration planning.
Of these other telecommunication initiatives, DER communication is the least defined, with several
telecommunication options. The telecommunication requirements for DER are still to be determined,
and their influence on the distribution and transmission systems is being evaluated.
The utility telecommunication network represents a key component of Alberta’s transmission
system. For the full details of the 2020 Telecommunication LTP, please refer to the document at
www.aeso.ca/grid/LTP.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 24

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

4.5 T
 RANSMISSION CAPABILITY ASSESSMENTS TO INTEGRATE
ADDITIONAL GENERATION

South and Central East

The AESO published the 2018 Capability Assessment to elaborate on information provided in the 2017
LTP. This assessment included the transmission system’s capability to integrate additional renewables
generation subsequent to the announcement of the projects selected for the REP Round 1. The
primary focus was on—but not exclusive to—generation integration capability in renewables-rich
central east and southern Alberta.
In early 2019, the AESO published an Addendum to the 2018 Capability Assessment covering the
impacts on system capability from the REP Rounds 2 and 3. The 2019 Transmission Capability
Assessment for Renewables Integration was subsequently published in April 2019, and includes
the results from the Addendum, various sensitivity studies, and captures the impacts of proposed
system projects.

Methodology
Integration capability information for the south and central east areas was updated as part of the
planning studies for the 2020 LTP. The most recent assessment identifies the remaining capability
in central east and southern Alberta, and provides an update on capability that will be added as a
result of planned transmission.

In assessing existing and planned transmission system capability for the south and central
east areas:
„ Incremental generation was guided to the locations which lead to maximized utilization of
the transmission system.
„ Integration capability was evaluated so thermal constraints do not occur under system-
normal conditions and are manageable under contingency conditions using Remedial
Action Schemes (RAS) that could result in curtailing renewables generation.
„ Capabilities indicated for these regions are applicable for both renewables and
conventional generation. However, the transmission system capability to integrate
conventional generation in these areas could be slightly lower than those estimated for
renewables due to coincident higher generation dispatch levels of existing thermal assets.

Current transmission system capability

If the transmission system is optimized and RAS are employed, there is an upper limit of
approximately 450 MW of remaining integration capability in the south and central east. Optimal
distribution of this 450 MW of integration capability is approximately 300 MW in the southwest
and 150 MW in the southeast. When the transmission system is optimized, capability in the central
east area is 0 MW; however, a small quantity of generation can still be integrated into this area,
recognizing that this could decrease overall system capability. To optimize use of the existing
transmission system in renewables-rich areas of Alberta, the AESO assumes connection of new
generation to 240 kV substations.
Based on the connection interest expressed to the AESO and the projects that formally applied
under the REP, the south and central east areas continue to garner significant interest from the
market for renewable energy development. These development interests are also in alignment with
the availability of wind and solar resources in the province as shown in Figures 4.5-1 and 4.5-2.

View Assessments for Transmission Capability for Renewables Integration:

www.aeso.ca/grid/ltp/capability

25 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Figure 4.5-1: Alberta’s wind resource potential

Fort
McMurray

Grande
Prairie

Lloydminster
Edmonton

Red
Deer

Existing Substation 27.5 - 30.0

Existing 240 kV Line 30.0 - 32.5
Existing 500 kV Line 32.5 - 35.0 Calgary
Wind Net 35.0 - 37.5
Capacity
37.5 - 40.0
Factor (%) -
100m HH 40.0 - 42.5 Medicine
< 20.0 42.5 - 45.0 Hat
20.0 - 22.5 45.0 - 47.5
22.5 - 25.0 47.5 - 50.0 Lethbridge
25.0 - 27.5 > 50.0
Source: AWS TRUEPOWER
June 2018

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 26

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Figure 4.5-2: Alberta’s solar resource potential

Fort
McMurray

Grande
Prairie

Lloydminster
Edmonton

Red
Deer

Existing Substation 950 - 1000

Existing 240 kV Line 1000 - 1050
Calgary
Existing 500 kV Line 1050 - 1100
Solar Resource 1100 - 1150
kWh/m2/yr 1150 - 1200
< 750 1200 - 1250 Medicine
750 - 800 1250 - 1300 Hat
800 - 850 1300 - 1350 Lethbridge
850 - 900 > 1350
900 - 950
Source: AWS TRUEPOWER
June 2018

27 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Capability enhancement plans

Two transmission developments previously identified by the AESO remain the most effective for
integrating the maximum amount of renewables generation in southern and central east Alberta:
CRPC and CETO.
These developments will enhance the electric system’s capability to transfer power out of the areas
where it is produced and deliver it to the load centres where it is needed. Both projects are being
staged with construction milestones to introduce flexibility, enabling incremental transfer capability
as renewable resources are developed.
The approved PENV project is also an important component of the renewables integration plan,
providing generation collection capability and extending the 240 kV transmission system in
the central east area to Vermilion and Edgerton. The project will add approximately 350 MW of
overall system capability and is expected to be in service by 2022. The CRPC, CETO and PENV
transmission developments are shown in Figure 4.5-3.

Chapel Rock-to-Pincher Creek Transmission Development

CRPC enables the use of the existing 240 kV system in the Pincher Creek and greater southwest
areas, extending east to Lethbridge for collecting renewables generation.
This development will add approximately 600 MW of generation integration capability in the
southwest. It will include one new 240 kV transmission circuit (approximately 40 km long) between
the Pincher Creek area and a new 500 kV substation to be called Chapel Rock, and the addition
of voltage support equipment at the existing Goose Lake substation. This 40 km transmission
development will expand the collector system in the area and enhance the transfer-out capability
by providing an additional 240 kV/500 kV path that will connect the Pincher Creek area to Calgary.
This new development allows the system to better utilize the Lethbridge—Milo—Langdon, Windy
Flats—Foothills and Chapel Rock—Bennett transmission paths connecting the southwest to the
Calgary-area load centre. The AESO is planning to submit a NID Application to the AUC in 2020 and
will propose a construction milestone based on future sufficiently certain generation developments
in the area.
In addition to CRPC, a number of other transmission developments designed to enhance renewables
integration capability were carefully evaluated: Foothills Area Transmission Development West (FATDW),
Etzikom Coulee–Whitla line (ECW), the Picture Butte–Etzikom Coulee line (PBEC), and Goose Lake–
Etzikom Coulee (GLEC).
Among these projects, it was determined that CRPC allows the highest level of renewables
generation integration in the southwest, effectively enhances transfer-out capability from the area,
and also contributes to the restoration of the Alberta—B.C. intertie capability. Consistent with the
AESO’s goal of optimizing transmission system capability, the FATDW, ECW, PBEC and GLEC
proposed development projects will be cancelled.

Central East Transfer-out Transmission Development

CETO will strengthen the existing regional transfer-out path and is the most efficient enhancement
to integrate incremental renewable-resource generation in central east Alberta. The selected
configuration of CETO is the addition of two 240 kV transmission circuits from the Tinchebray
substation to the Gaetz substation.
The two circuits will add approximately 700 MW of integration capability. Combined with PENV,
CETO will enable approximately 1,000 MW of new renewables generation capability, primarily in
central east Alberta. The AESO plans to submit a NID Application to the AUC in 2020 and will
propose construction milestones for the project.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 28

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Figure 4.5-3: Planned transmission projects supporting integration of renewables development

(CRPC, CETO and PENV)

ALBERTA NORTH
NEWSPRINT BARRHEAD
122S SAGITAWAH 69S
77S

HEARTLAND
12S
CHERHILL DEERLAND
338S 13S
NORTH
CALDER
37S CLOVER BAR
WABAMUN
19S 987S

SUNDANCE Edmonton Drury

Lloydminster
310P ELLERSLIE
89S
KEEPHILLS SAUNDERS
GENESEE
320P LAKE 289S
330P
SUNNYBROOK
510S
BIGSTONE
86S
BRAZEAU
62S EDGERTON
899S

WOLF
PENV
CREEK
288S NILREM
WILLESDENGREEN BATTLE 574S
68S CORDEL RIVER
PAINTEARTH
755S 757S
NEVIS 863S

Red GAETZ
87S
766S
METISKOW HANSMAN

Deer HALKIRK
648S LAKE 650S

BENALTO
17S RED CETO TINCHEBRAY
972S
615S

DEER
63S
HAZELWOOD PEMUKAN
287S 932S

SHEERNESS
807S
EAST LANFINE
COYOTE ANDERSON 959S
CROSSFIELD 64S 801S
LAKE 963S
BEDDINGTON OAKLAND
SS-162 946S
JANET
EAST 74S
CALGARY 5S
CROSSINGS
Calgary 511S

SARCEE LANGDON WARE

42S 102S JUNCTION AMOCO
SHEPARD 132S EMPRESS
BENNETT
SS-25 SS-65 520S WEST 163S
BROOKS
28S JENNER CYPRESS
Future Substation 275S 562S
MILO CASSILS
356S 324S
Existing Substation FOOTHILLS
237S
NEWELL
Future 240 kV Line 2075S

Existing 240 kV Line

Existing 500 kV Line
SC1 TRAVERS
Medicine BOWMANTON
244S
BLACKSPRING
Solar Project 266S RIDGE 485S 554S Hat
Interest
Wind Project
Interest
PICTURE
Central East WINDY BUTTE 120S
SHAMROCK
Chapel FLATS 1018S
Southeast Rock
CRPC 138S LETHBRIDGE
NORTH 370S
WHITLA
Southwest PEIGAN
59S
Lethbridge 251S

CRPC, CETO & PENV Project locations FIDLER

are representative and do not reflect CASTLE ROCK 312S
actual routes or locations. RIDGE 205S
GOOSE
LAKE 103S
Date Prepared: 2019-Dec-11

29 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

 Northwest, Northeast and Edmonton

The AESO also performed integration capability studies for regions where significant conventional
generation has traditionally developed.

In assessing existing and planned transmission system capability for the conventional
generation-rich Northwest, Northeast, and Edmonton Planning Regions:
„ A ssessments were made such that thermal constraints do not occur under system-normal
conditions and contingency conditions without using RAS.
„ T he capabilities indicated are applicable for both renewables and conventional generation,
with the capability for integrating renewables being slightly different due to differences in
generation pattern and merit order, as well as the use of RAS.
„ T he assessment is informed by developer interest and active projects in the AESO project
list, and the results are intended to provide guidance to generation developers in the areas
with existing and planned transmission system capability.

Methodology
In developing generation integration capabilities for the Northwest, Northeast, and Edmonton
Planning Regions, the AESO considered only locations with strong transmission system backbone
(transmission buses at 240 kV or above in study areas). Incremental generation is added to the
transmission backbone to maximize utilization of the transmission system capability without leading
to thermal and voltage violations under contingency conditions and assumes no reliance on RAS.
Capability would increase further if generation-shedding RAS is considered. Existing generation is
dispatched to its respective maximum capacity, with the assumption that retirement of the existing
generation can be replaced with other generation at a 1-1 ratio in capacity. Therefore, this capability
study reflects the amount of generation that can be accommodated in these locations in addition to
what is currently connected.

 he three regions with higher potential for conventional generation developments have
T
different system characteristics resulting in different presentations of capability information:
„ N orthwest Planning Region −the region is complex with three 240 kV transmission lines
connecting to the Wabamun Lake area and many 138/144 kV local transmission networks.
Transmission capabilities are provided at individual 240 kV buses without a regional total
because system capability for the Northwest needs to consider both outflow constraints
limited by the main 240 kV system and local constraints driven by the 138/144 kV networks.
„ N ortheast Planning Region −the focus of the assessment is primarily the system outflow
capability of the 240 kV loop in the Fort McMurray area. The area is outflow constrained by
a single 500 kV line and three 240 kV transmission lines linking the Fort McMurray area with
the rest of the system.
„ E dmonton Planning Region −with its strong 500 kV and 240 kV transmission network,
the capability is primarily driven by the total outflow from the three existing sites: Sundance,
Keephills and Genesee.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 30

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Current transmission system capability

Table 4.5-1 below summarizes the current approximate integration capabilities for the Northwest,
Northeast and Edmonton Planning Regions. These capabilities indicate the amount of additional
generation that can be integrated in addition to the facilities that already exist today. If existing
generators retire, it is assumed new generators with the same capacity can develop in their place.
Table 4.5-1: Northwest, Northeast and Edmonton existing integration capability

Planning Region Existing Capability (MW)

Northwest N/A

Wesley Creek 250

Little Smoky 300

Louise Creek 1,000

Mitsue 550

Sagitawah 1,000

Bickerdike 100

Northeast (Fort McMurray) 500

Edmonton 2,400

Sundance 650

Keephills 500

Genesee 1,250

Capability enhancement plans

As identified in the near-term studies, the Fox Creek area has thermal constraints under peak
load conditions when the Northwest is importing power from the rest of the system. This thermal
constraint results in very limited capability at Bickerdike. However, with the Fox Creek area
transmission reinforcement identified in the near-term transmission plan for the Northwest, the
Bickerdike substation can accommodate additional generation. Operational measures such as
re-configuring the transmission system after a contingency could potentially be utilized to further
increase system capability to accommodate additional generation. The AESO continues to monitor
developments in the area and will propose the appropriate transmission reinforcements as required.
For the Northeast, the thermal rating of the 240 kV line 9L74 between the Birchwood Creek and Dover
substations is the limiting constraint for the 12L41 (500 kV FMW line) contingency. If the thermal rating
of 9L74 is upgraded, the integration capability for the Northeast can increase from 500 MW to 800 MW.
If generation development is expected to be above 800 MW, the approved 500 kV FME line will need to
be developed, increasing the generation integration capability from 500 MW to 1,800 MW.

31 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Table 4.5-2 below and Figure 4.5-4 on the following page summarize the planned increase in
generation integration capabilities when compared to the existing capabilities. Planned capabilities
shown are inclusive of the existing capabilities, and reflect the total capability after transmission
developments are in place. The table also shows the existing and planned transmission capabilities
for different regions of the system.
Table 4.5-2: Total generation integration capability considering planned transmission developments

Planning Region Existing

Planned Capability (MW)
Capability (MW)

Northwest N/A N/A

Wesley Creek 250 250

Little Smoky 300 300

Louise Creek 1,000 1,000

Mitsue 550 550

Sagitawah 1,000 1,150 (with Fox Creek developments)

Bickerdike 100 300 (with Fox Creek developments)

Northeast (Fort McMurray) 500 800 (with 9L74 upgrade) 1,800 (with 500 kV FME)

Edmonton 2,400 2,400

Sundance 650 650

Keephills 500 500

Genesee 1,250 1,250

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 32

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Figure 4.5-4: Integration capabilities for the Northwest, Northeast and Edmonton Planning Regions

Northern Alberta Regional Capabilities:Existing/ Planned

Existing Substation
Future 500 kV Line
Future 240 kV Line
Existing 240 kV Line
Existing 500 kV Line
Northwest
Edmonton/Wabamun
Fort McMurray
Fort McMurray
Northwest Planning Region Capability
is shown at individual substations.
500 MW/800 MW (w/ 9L74 Upgrade)
1,800 MW (w/ 500 kV FME)
FME & Fox Creek Project locations
are representative and do not reflect 9L74 Fort
actual routes or locations.
UPGRADE McMurray
Date Prepared: 2019-Dec-11

Wesley Creek
250 MW /250 MW
Peace
River

FME
Mitsue
550 MW /550 MW

Little Smoky
300 MW /300 MW

Louise Creek
1,000 MW /1,000 MW
FOX
CREEK

Sagitawah
1,000 MW/ 1,150 MW (w/ Fox Creek
developments)

Edmonton
Bickerdike Edmonton (Sundance,
100 MW / 300 MW (w/ Fox Creek Keephills & Genesee)
developments) 2,400 MW/ 2,400 MW

33 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

4.6 DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES

DER are typically smaller in scale than centralized and conventional power generation facilities and
are directly connected to the distribution system. To date, there are approximately 500 MW of DER
in Alberta. At this current volume, the AESO is confident that existing requirements and practices
allow for reliable management of the transmission system. In the future, however, there is potential
for higher DER levels to develop, which may influence the planning and operation of the transmission
system and require additional visibility and control.

Following are considerations:

„ If DER locates near load and is able to reliably follow the local load pattern, it can
potentially reduce loading on the transmission system. However, in areas where
transmission is constrained by generation outflow, adding more DER exacerbates
transmission constraints and can cause congestion.
„ Load levels in the southern and central east areas are relatively low compared to in-merit
generation, and it is generation surplus that drives congestion. More DER in these areas
will add to the constraint, since existing generation is already serving local load. DER
could also change the flow pattern on local transmission systems or further exacerbate
loading, depending on local constraints (Figure 4.6-1).
„ D ER in the form of rooftop solar could reach higher levels in more densely populated
urban areas.

An assessment was undertaken on the impacts of DER integration on transmission system

capability at key urban areas within Alberta. The assessment assumes up to approximately
300 MW of PV solar energy in major cities; this is based on the assumption that approximately
20 to 25 per cent of homes would install rooftop PV modules.

Key findings are as follows:

„ T here is a reduction of approximately 60 MW in transmission system capability in the
south and central east for every 100 MW of DER integrated in the City of Calgary (up to
300 MW of DER generation was assessed).
„ Integration of 100 MW of DER in the cities in the south and central east areas will use
100 MW of transmission system capability for renewables integration in these regions
(up to 200 MW of DER generation was assessed).
„ D ER integration in the cities of Edmonton and Red Deer will not impact transmission
system capability to integrate renewables generation in the south and central east areas
(up to 300 MW and 70 MW of DER generation was assessed in the City of Edmonton
and the City of Red Deer respectively).
— T he cites of Edmonton and Red Deer are near strong transmission hubs in the AIES
and integration of additional generation on the distribution system in these areas will
have minimal impact on existing transmission system capability.
„ T he location and size of future generation is an important factor to consider when integrating
generation on the distribution system, as it may produce local system constraints.
„ More transmission system capability is planned for the south and central east areas and it will
allow more DER to develop in these areas along with transmission-connected generation.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 34

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Figure 4.6-1: DER integration impact

Fort
McMurray

Grande
Prairie

Edmonton

Red
Deer

DER integration Calgary

has strong impact on
transmission capability
Load Centers
Medicine
Existing Substation
Hat
Existing 240 kV Line
Existing 500 kV Line Lethbridge
Date Prepared: 2019-Dec-11

35 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

4.7 ENERGY STORAGE

Over the past few years, utility-scale energy storage technology has become an important
consideration in the planning and operation of the power system, as energy storage can take
on multiple attributes:
„ Generation-like when discharging onto the grid to supply stored energy.

„ Load-like when charging from the grid to store energy to discharge at a later time back
onto the grid.
„ Transmission-like or distribution-like when connected to the transmission/distribution
system to reduce peak demand, congestion, and defer capital build.
„ Customer-like when on the customer’s side of the meter, managing customer bill costs.

Overall, energy storage can offer important value and benefits:

„ It has the potential to optimize intermittent generation, thereby helping to

strengthen reliability.
„ It can reduce costs to transmission system infrastructure through transmission and
distribution deferral, resulting in potential cost benefits to customers.
„ Fast frequency response from energy storage can enable reductions in required volumes
of certain ancillary services, also resulting in potential cost benefits to customers.

The AESO Energy Storage Roadmap, published in August 2019, sets out the AESO’s plan to
facilitate the integration of energy storage technologies into AESO Authoritative Documents and grid
& market systems. The objective of the roadmap is to enable energy storage in Alberta following
guiding principles that include treating energy storage as its own unique asset class and removing
barriers to its integration.

The AESO will continue to refine the Energy Storage Roadmap, review
and consider active connections projects wanting to connect in 2020,
and prepare for long-term implementation of roadmap recommendations.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 36

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

N
 ORTHWEST PLANNING REGION
Existing transmission system

RAINBOW
LAKE
HIGH LEVEL
Rainbow Lake
Arceniel Legend
Cities/Towns
Bassett
Substations
69/72 kV
138/144 kV
240 kV
Keg River 500 kV

Wesley Creek

PEACE
RIVER

RYCROFT
Rycroft

HIGH PRAIRIE
Clairmont Lake Otauwau
Kinuso

GRANDE PRAIRIE Mitsue

Big Mountain

Little Smoky

SWAN
HILLS
Louise Creek
Simonette
Fox Creek FOX CREEK
741S Fox
Creek
347S WHITECOURT
Whitecourt
H.R. Milner Benbow Sagitawah

GRANDE CACHE

View Single Line Diagrams (SLDs): www.aeso.ca/grid/LTP

35
37 4.0 Transmission planning and developments
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N O R THWEST
4.8 NEAR-TERM REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLANS

Northwest Planning Region

Overview and forecast

From a geographic perspective, the Northwest Planning Region represents approximately one-third
of the province, with five per cent of the population. The largest centre is the City of Grande Prairie,
with a population of less than 100,000. Residential and commercial electricity demand is relatively
low compared to northwest industrial demand, especially when compared to residential and
commercial demand in other regions. There is also some agricultural activity in the region.
This region accounts for approximately 11 per cent of the total provincial load, most of which is
industrial. Load growth over the past 10 years has an average annual winter peak growth rate of
1 per cent. The Reference Case assumes continued load growth with winter peak growth of 0.3 per
cent to 2039.
The Northwest Planning Region currently contains 988 MW of generation capacity, primarily gas-
fired. There has been an increase in gas-fired and biomass generation capacity over the past 10
years with net additions of 233 MW. There are a variety of resources showing development potential
in this region, with gas-fired generation being the main expected source. Approximately two-thirds
of generation in the region is currently gas-fired (primarily simple-cycle).
The majority of forecast generation in the Northwest Planning Region is from gas-fired simple-cycle.
Some development of wind resources is also anticipated in the future.

Table 4.8-1: Northwest regional reference case load and generation forecast

Calendar Year 2018 (MW) 2024 (MW)

Region Peak Load 1,223 1,254

Coal-fired / Coal-to-gas 144 0

Cogeneration 147 162

Combined-cycle 73 73

Simple-cycle 442 535

Hydroelectric 0 0

Wind 0 0

Solar* 0 0

Other 182 182

Total Generation Capacity 988 952

*This table does not include rooftop solar which is taken into account within the load forecast

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 38

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Existing transmission system

The Northwest Planning Region is primarily served by a 240 kV network that moves power into the
region from generation in the Wabamun Lake area, and from cogeneration in the Northeast Planning
Region. Local load is supplied via 144 kV networks from the Louise Creek, Little Smoky, Wesley
Creek, Sagitawah, Bickerdike, Mitsue, and North Barrhead 240 kV substations. A portion of the load
in the Swan Hills, High Prairie and Peace River areas is served by 69/72 kV networks.

Transmission project status

„ R ycroft project NID Application for reactive power support–filed with the AUC in
December 2017 and approved in May 2019. The targeted in-service date for this project
is 2021.

Transmission plans
Several 138/144 kV transmission lines in the Whitecourt to Fox Creek area can overload under
system normal or outage conditions, depending on system dispatch conditions. In addition,
transformers at the Little Smoky substation can also overload if the companion transformer is out
of service. Thermal overload and low voltage conditions are observed in the Grande Prairie and
Grande Cache areas under outage conditions as well. Overload is also observed in the Rainbow
Lake area and there are under voltage conditions in the High Prairie area.
There are a number of generation proposals in the Northwest Planning Region. While not specified
in the forecast provided, the AESO has assessed them in various sensitivity considerations. System
performance in the area will be improved with the addition of some generation, but too much could
trigger additional transmission system reinforcements.

39 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

N O R THWEST
Table 4.8-2: Developments required to mitigate the identified constraints

Development Description Driver

Fox Creek Build a 240/144 kV substation near Fox Creek Load - thermal
Reinforcement Build a new single-circuit 240 kV line from Little
Smoky 813S to new Fox Creek to Bickerdike 39S
Increase line rating for 7L199 from Fox Creek
741S to Fox Creek 347S
Increase line rating for 720L from Fox Creek
347S to Benbow 397S

Grande Prairie Area Build a new 240/144 kV substation on 9L11 Load - thermal
Build a new single-circuit 240 kV line from the
new substation to Clairmont Lake 811S, initially
operated at 144 kV

Grande Cache Area Voltage support device at H.R. Milner 740S and/ Load - voltage
or Simonette 733S

Little Smoky Replace existing 240/144 kV transformers with Load - thermal

substation – increase higher-capacity units (or add a third unit) at Little
transformation capacity Smoky 813S

Rainbow Lake Increase line rating for 7L64 from Bassett 747S to Load - thermal
Arceniel 930S

High Prairie Area Voltage support device at Kinuso 727S or new Load - voltage
transformer at Otauwau 729S

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 40

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

N
 ORTHEAST PLANNING REGION
Existing transmission system

Redwater

Heartland

Heathfield Bannerman Beamer

Amelia

Josephburg

Lamoureux
Legend
Cities/Towns
FORT SASKATCHEWAN
Substations
69/72 kV
138/144 kV
240 kV
500 kV
McClelland
Joslyn Kearl
Creek

Black Fly

Dover

Ruth
Lake

Birchwood Creek FORT MCMURRAY

Thickwood
Hills
Salt Creek

Livock Kinosis
Dawes

Brintnell

Kettle River
Wabasca

McMillan
Leismer

Round
Hill

Heart Lake

LAC LA
BICHE
ATHABASCA
Lac La
Biche

Clyde

Heartland
Deerland

FORT SASKATCHEWAN

View SLDs: www.aeso.ca/grid/LTP

35
41 4.0 Transmission planning and developments
 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Northeast Planning Region

Overview and forecast

The Northeast Planning Region is sparsely populated, accounting for approximately three per cent of
the provincial population with commensurately small residential and commercial load. Most residents

N O R THE AST
are located in the Fort McMurray area of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo. The economy in
this region is driven by the oil sands industry and is directly linked to future oil sands projects.
Despite the low population, the Northeast Planning Region contains about 28 per cent of Alberta
load. Over the past 10 years, load growth has been the strongest of any region with an average
annual winter peak growth rate of 6 per cent as oil sands projects developed and ramped up
production. In the near term, projects currently under construction are expected to contribute to load
growth. The Reference Case forecasts average annual winter peak load growth at a rate of 2 per cent
to 2039. Due to the ramp up of oil sands and other industrial projects, this is Alberta’s fastest-growing
planning region in terms of load, with almost 1,171 MW of new load expected by 2039.
The region currently has 3,638 MW of generation, mostly in the form of cogeneration. In addition,
there has been some development of biomass. Over the past 10 years, the Northeast Planning
Region has seen the largest amount of generation capacity growth compared to any other
planning region. Most generation development in the region has come from industrial activity and
cogeneration related to the oil sands industry.
The forecast for this region includes over 1,200 MW of gas-fired cogeneration, combined-cycle, and
simple-cycle. In the long term, a small amount of wind generation is also expected.

Table 4.8-3: Northeast regional reference case load and generation forecast

Calendar Year 2018 (MW) 2024 (MW)

Region Peak Load 3,309 3,582

Coal-fired / Coal-to-gas 0 0

Cogeneration 3,489 3,760

Combined-cycle 0 0

Simple-cycle 0 0

Hydroelectric 0 0

Wind 0 0

Solar* 0 0

Other 149 149

Total Generation Capacity 3,638 3,909

*This table does not include rooftop solar which is taken into account within the load forecast

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 42

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Existing transmission system

The Northeast Planning Region transmission system consists of a 240 kV network primarily serving
large industrial operations in the Fort McMurray and Fort Saskatchewan areas. In addition, local
138/144 kV networks serve load across the planning region. Several 144 kV networks connect load
and BTF facilities in the Fort McMurray area.

Transmission project status

„ F MW 500 kV Transmission Project−a new 500 kV alternating current (AC) transmission

line between the Sunnybrook substation in the Wabamun Lake area and the new
Thickwood Hills substation southwest of Fort McMurray. In the spring of 2019 the project
was energized and is now in service.
„ B eamer−Shell 138 kV line Rebuild−approved by the AUC with both load-based and
generation-based construction milestones. The milestones have not been reached at
this time.

43 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Transmission plans
Voltage criteria violation is observed at the Kearl substation under high load conditions. To mitigate
this violation, a new voltage support device is required at the McClelland substation. There is no
other observed thermal and voltage criteria violation in the near term.

Table 4.8-4: New voltage support device required to mitigate voltage criteria violation

N O R THE AST
Development Description Driver

NE of Fort McMurray New voltage support device at McClelland 957S Load - voltage

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 44

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

EDMONTON PLANNING REGION

Existing transmission system

Legend
Cities/Towns
Substations
69/72 kV
138/144 kV
240 kV
500 kV

EDMONTON

North
St. Albert
Viscount

North Castle Downs

Calder
Kennedale
Clover Bar
Namao
Jasper

East Stony Plain Hardisty East Edmonton

Garneau Argyll
/Rossdale
North Lambton
Barrhead BARRHEAD
Petrolia Dome

Ellerslie
MAYERTHORPE

Devon Blackmud
MORINVILLE
NW Cardiff
Cherhill STONY
PLAIN FORT
ST. ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN
SPRUCE
WABAMUN GROVE
Clover Bar
SHERWOOD PARK
Wabamun
Sundance
Harry Smith EDMONTON
Keephills KEG 500 kV
Ellerslie
Loop DEVON
Genesee TOFIELD
Sunnybrook Bardo
Saunders
CALMAR Lake
LEDUC
Leduc

Bigstone East Camrose

Pigeon
Lake Wetaskiwin CAMROSE
WETASKIWIN

Wolf
Creek
PONOKA

View SLDs: www.aeso.ca/grid/LTP

45 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

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Edmonton Planning Region

Overview and forecast

The Edmonton Planning Region contains the City of Edmonton, St. Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce
Grove, Leduc and the Wabamun Lake area. It represents approximately 34 per cent of Alberta’s
population. This region accounts for the most significant amount of provincial generation capacity,
specifically in the Wabamun Lake area.
This region represents 16 per cent of Alberta’s load, and over the past 10 years has seen its summer
peak grow at an average annual rate of 1 per cent, and its winter peak grow at 0.4 per cent. Load
in the region consists of residential, commercial, oil refining, manufacturing and pipelines. By 2039
winter peak load is forecast to grow at 0.6 per cent annually. The bulk of this growth is expected in
the City of Edmonton area, driven primarily by residential, commercial and industrial developments.
Electric vehicle adoption and cannabis operations are also expected to contribute to future load
growth, with rooftop solar adoption and energy efficiency offsetting some of that growth.
The Edmonton Planning Region contains approximately 4,400 MW of generation capacity, with
coal-fired generation contributing approximately 4,100 MW, and gas-fired generation contributing

E D M O NTO N
to the balance of the mix. The region has remained constant in terms of net generation capacity
over the past 10 years. The 463 MW Keephills Unit 3 came in service in 2011, while the retirements
of Sundance Units 1 and 2 have offset that capacity. Additionally, many of the coal-fired units have
upgraded their facilities to gain incremental capacity.
A large reduction in coal-fired generation is forecast for the Edmonton Planning Region based on
conversion to natural gas. In the long term, large combined-cycle and simple-cycle generation
is expected to meet retirements and load growth. Overall, the forecast for the region sees a net
increase of approximately 1,000 MW in total installed generation capacity.

Table 4.8-5: Edmonton regional reference case load and generation capacity forecast

Calendar Year 2018 (MW) 2024 (MW)

Region Peak Load 2,140 2,326

Coal-fired / Coal-to-gas 4,100 4,100

Cogeneration 49 49

Combined-cycle 0 0

Simple-cycle 250 250

Hydroelectric 0 0

Wind 0 0

Solar* 0 0

Other 0 0

Total Generation Capacity 4,399 4,399

*This table does not include rooftop solar which is taken into account within the load forecast

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 46

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Existing transmission system

The Edmonton Planning Region contains a large concentration of generation sources. It is
the central transmission hub for the provincial network, connecting the north and south with
transmission lines operating at 500 kV and 240 kV. These bulk transmission lines transfer power
from this region to the rest of the province.
Local load in this region is served by a transmission network consisting of 500 kV, 240 kV, 138 kV
and 69/72 kV lines. A 500 kV loop between the Wabamun Lake area and Edmonton feeds power
from coal-fired generating plants in the Wabamun Lake area to the southeast corner of the City of
Edmonton. The loop also extends to the Heartland substation in the Northeast Planning Region.
A 72 kV system in Edmonton is dedicated to serving load within the city. The 138 kV system feeds
load in the areas outside of the City of Edmonton as well as the heavy industrial area to the east.

Transmission project status

„ F MW 500 kV Transmission Project−this project is connected to the Wabamun

Lake area. Please see the Northeast Planning Region section for more details.

Transmission plans
There are several areas in and around Edmonton where overloads are observed. This includes the
72 kV system in the City of Edmonton, the 138 kV system north of the city towards the Town of
Morinville, and the 138 kV system near the City of Leduc. There are also overloads on some 240 kV
transmission lines and 500/240 kV transformers.

Table 4.8-6: Developments required to mitigate the identified constraints

Development Description Driver

North Calder to NW Increase line rating for 898L from North Calder Load - thermal
Cardiff 37S to Viscount 92S
Increase line rating for 792L from Viscount 92S to
NW Cardiff 191S

The City of Edmonton Build a new 240/72 kV transformer at Castle Load – thermal
Downs substation and a new 240/72 kV
Blatchford substation near Namao
Build a new 72 kV circuit from Castle Downs
substation to Kennedale substation, a new 72
kV circuit from Namao substation to Kennedale
substation and a new 72 kV circuit from the new
Blatchford substation to Namao substation
Discontinue use of 72CK12 and 72CK13 from
Clover Bar substation to Kennedale substation
Upgrade 72 kV circuits between Clover Bar–
Hardisty substations and Garneau–Rossdale
substations

South Edmonton New 500/240 kV transformer for the Keephills– Generation - thermal
Ellerslie–Genesee (KEG) Loop

Leduc Area Increase line rating for 805L from Bigstone 86S Load – thermal and
to Pigeon Lake 964S voltage
New voltage support device at Leduc 325S

47 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

The 240 kV system and 500/240 kV transformer overloads in south Edmonton are observed under
certain system conditions. For example, lower generation from the 240 kV connected units located
in the Wabamun Lake area, coupled with renewables generation in the south flowing into the
Edmonton region via the 500 kV HVDC lines, results in more power being injected onto the 500
kV system, particularly at the Ellerslie substation. A number of existing operational measures are
effective in alleviating the observed overloads on 240 kV transmission lines. However, an additional
transformer is required to help alleviate overloads on the 500/240 kV transformers.
The AESO is currently working with EPCOR Distribution and Transmission Inc. to determine the
preferred solution to provide reliable long-term supply for the City of Edmonton. The primarily 72 kV
looped normally open transmission network has a number of aging oil-filled cables, and is becoming
constrained due to growing load within the Edmonton region. A long-term solution is required to
provide reliable supply commensurate with an urban centre the size of the City of Edmonton.
Under peak load conditions, thermal overloads on the 138 kV path between East Edmonton and
Fort Saskatchewan can be observed. The AESO is currently investigating a number of potential
reinforcements to support this area. One of the options under consideration is the use of a storage

E D M O NTO N
system to support the area in the short and medium term, and defer transmission developments
into the future.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 48

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

C
 ENTRAL PLANNING REGION
Existing transmission system

Legend
Cities/Towns
Substations
69/72 kV
138/144 kV
240 kV
500 kV

Foster
Creek

Marguerite Lake

Whitefish Lake
Norberg COLD
LAKE

St. Paul

EDSON
VEGREVILLE
Bickerdike Vermilion VERMILION
HINTON
North Holden
LLOYDMINSTER

Strome
Brazeau
WAINWRIGHT Edgerton
Nilrem
Willesdengreen Battle
River Cordel Metiskow
Nevis Hansman
Red Tinchebray
Lake Provost
Deer Gaetz Halkirk
Benalto STETTLER
RED DEER
Hazelwood Pemukan
INNISFAIL

HANNA
Johnson DIDSBURY
Lanfine

View SLDs: www.aeso.ca/grid/LTP

49 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

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Central Planning Region

Overview and forecast

The Central Planning Region spans the province east–west between the borders of B.C. and
Saskatchewan, and north–south between Cold Lake and Calgary. Its major population centres
are the cities of Red Deer and Lloydminster. The region represents about 11 per cent of Alberta’s
population, primarily concentrated in the Red Deer area. This area contains notable amounts of
manufacturing, and there is significant oil sands development to the east in the Cold Lake area.
The Central Planning Region also features a considerable amount of pipelines, particularly in the
eastern portion of the region.
The region currently represents 19 per cent of Alberta’s load. Over the past 10 years, the regional
winter peak has grown by an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent. The Reference Case assumes
winter peak load will grow by 0.7 per cent annually by 2039 as a result of increasing pipeline load,
industrial and oil sands growth, and urban growth in the Red Deer area.
The Central Planning Region currently contains 2,635 MW of generation capacity comprised of
cogeneration, coal-fired, hydro, and wind. There is 248 MW of generation expected to come online
in the near term related to the REP. Over the past 10 years, the Central Planning Region has seen
significant growth in wind power and gas-fired cogeneration capacity. Net generation additions of
592 MW are primarily from wind and cogeneration.
The forecast for the Central Planning Region anticipates growth in gas-fired and renewables
generation, as well as a decrease in coal-fired generation. Coal-fired generation in the region is
expected to retire or convert to natural gas. Coal-to-gas generation is then expected to be replaced
with new combined-cycle generation once it retires. Cogeneration is also expected for the region
and renewables are expected to continue to grow, with approximately 700 MW of renewables
developing over the 20-year forecast.

Table 4.8-7: Central regional reference case load and generation capacity forecast

CE NTR A L
Calendar Year 2018 (MW) 2024 (MW)

Region Peak Load 2,277 2,398

Coal-fired / Coal-to-gas 689 540

Cogeneration 1,145 1,241

Combined-cycle 0 0

Simple-cycle 5 51

Hydroelectric 485 485

Wind 261 509

Solar* 0 0

Other 50 50

Total Generation Capacity 2,635 2,876

*This table does not include rooftop solar which is taken into account within the load forecast

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 50

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Existing transmission system

There are six north-south 240 kV transmission lines that terminate in several substations within the
Central Planning Region. These 240 kV lines connect the Edmonton and Calgary Planning Regions,
and provide a strong source of supply from the bulk transmission system to areas within the
Central Planning Region. The 240 kV system also extends to the western and eastern portions of
the planning region, acting as sources to supply local area load, and also functioning as
transfer-out paths for generation integration. In addition, both 500 kV HVDC lines run
north-south through the region.
Local area load is supplied by looped 138 kV and 144 kV systems. The transmission system includes
72 kV lines and substations serving load in the eastern part of the Central Planning Region. The
Hanna area is served by a 240 kV system, which also provides transmission access for renewables
generation.
The Cold Lake area is served by a 240 kV double-circuit line and local 144 kV network to support oil
sands and industrial operations. The western part of this planning region is primarily supplied by 138
kV lines serving load. The Brazeau hydroelectric plant is also located in this region.

Transmission project status

„ PENV−the NID Application for this project was approved by the AUC in Q2 2019.
The first stage, which is a 138 kV configuration, is expected to be in service by 2022.

51 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

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Transmission plans
PENV will help to reinforce the area by providing more access for renewables development in the
central east area and will help mitigate local load-driven overloads that were observed in previous
LTPs. CETO will also be needed in order to provide an additional 700 MW of integration capability for
renewables development in the region. The CETO transmission development will be triggered via a
milestone associated with sufficiently committed generation developments.
There are currently three temporary RAS that mitigate voltage violations by tripping load after
the first contingency at the Strome, Foster Creek and Norberg substations. To remove these
RAS, additional voltage support devices will be required at the Strome, Foster Creek and St. Paul
substations.
The Hanna Region Transmission Development was originally approved in two phases. Phase 1 has
been completed and Phase 2, which covers 240 kV and 144 kV transmission lines, transformers,
and capacitor banks in the Hanna area, is on hold. The AESO is reassessing the need for Phase 2
and a decision will be made in 2021 on the next steps.

Table 4.8-8: Developments required to mitigate the identified constraints

Development Description Driver

CETO Two new 240 kV circuits from Tinchebray to Generation – thermal

Gaetz substations

Voltage Support New voltage support devices at Strome, Foster Load - voltage
Creek and St. Paul

CE NTR A L

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AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

S
 OUTH PLANNING REGION
Existing transmission system

Legend
Cities/Towns
Substations
69/72 kV
138/144 kV
240 kV
500 kV

Eastern Alberta
Transmission Line (EATL)

Sheerness
Anderson
Coyote Lake
Oakland

BANFF STRATHMORE

Ware Junction
Alberta-SK
Jenner Empress Intertie
Cypress
BROOKS
Cassils Tilley
Foothills
HIGH RIVER Milo Newell

SC1 Blackspring Bowmanton

STAVELY Ridge Travers
MEDICINE HAT

Castle
FORT Picture
MACLEOD Butte Coaldale
Rock Monarch
Ridge
Alberta-BC
Peigan
Intertie Fidler
North Shamrock Whitla
Windy Chinook Lethbridge
Flats
Goose Lake
PINCHER LETHBRIDGE
CREEK Warner

Alberta-Montana
Intertie (MATL)

View SLDs: www.aeso.ca/grid/LTP

53 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

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South Planning Region

Overview and forecast

The South Planning Region encompasses southern Alberta and includes Lethbridge, High River,
Brooks, and Medicine Hat. It contains approximately 12 per cent of the province’s population.
This region is generally summer peaking with higher air conditioning use and seasonal irrigation loads.
The South Planning Region represents about 11 per cent of AIL, and contains the majority of
provincial farm demand and some industrial load including pipelines, manufacturing, and natural
gas processing. Over the past 10 years, summer peak load has grown by an average annual rate
of 1 per cent. Under the Reference Case, the region’s summer peak is expected to grow at a rate
of 0.1 per cent annually until 2039 due to limited economic growth, a new cannabis facility expected
to come online in Medicine Hat, and adoption of electric vehicles in urban centres.
This region currently contains 2,974 MW of generation capacity. Wind generation comprises
the largest portion at 1,184 MW followed by coal-fired at 790 MW. The South Planning Region,
which also contains hydro, solar, and cogeneration, has shown substantial growth in generation
development over the past 10 years with a net growth of 769 MW of capacity.
The generation forecast for the South Planning Region anticipates growth in both gas-fired and
renewables generation along with a decrease in coal-fired generation. Coal-fired capacity is
expected to first convert to natural gas and then be replaced with combined-cycle. Renewables
are expected to continue to grow, with over 2,100 MW of renewables developing over the 20-year
forecast; approximately 1,100 MW of new wind generation is expected to come online in the near
term from REP projects.

Table 4.8-9: South regional reference case load and generation capacity forecast

Calendar Year 2018 (MW) 2024 (MW)

Region Peak Load 1,481 1,499

Coal-fired / Coal-to-gas 790 790

Cogeneration 95 95

Combined-cycle 375 375

Simple-cycle 64 110

Hydroelectric 409 409

Wind 1,184 2,395

Solar* 15 131 SO U TH

Other 42 42

Total Generation Capacity 2,974 4,347

*This table does not include rooftop solar which is taken into account within the load forecast

Existing transmission system

Load in the South Planning Region is primarily served through an extensive 138 kV transmission
network, supplied by a regional 240 kV network connecting the main load centres with regional
generation sources. The region also contains a small number of 69 kV facilities, including ones
located south of Lethbridge and within Banff National Park.

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 54

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

There are existing 240 kV lines extending from the Calgary area to Brooks and Lethbridge, and a
240 kV network delivering power from the Sheerness and Battle River coal-fired generation units
south to the Brooks area. The region also includes parts of the approved SATR project, consisting of
several 240 kV circuits designed to collect geographically dispersed renewables generation sources
and move power onto the bulk transmission network. In 2015, the double-circuit 240 kV line from
Windy Flats (near Fort Macleod) to Foothills and a double-circuit 240 kV line from Whitla to Medicine
Hat and on to Brooks were energized, enabling additional wind development opportunities in the
south. EATL, a 500 kV HVDC line, terminates near Brooks and is capable of moving electric power
from the north to supply load when generation in the south is low, and to the north when generation
in the south is high.

Transmission project status

„ CRPC Transmission Development−the AESO is preparing to file the NID Application in 2020.
The construction timing for this project will depend on the pace at which renewables generation
commits to connect to the transmission system in the southwest area of the province. The project
has been reconfigured to include a single 240 kV transmission circuit connecting the new Chapel
Rock substation to the Pincher Creek area.
„ C ancellations−other components of the original SATR, which includes ECW, PBEC,
and GLEC line developments, will be cancelled as CRPC enables the most effective
renewables generation integration in the southwest.

Transmission plans

Table 4.8-10: Developments required to mitigate the identified constraints

Development Description Driver

Alberta−B.C. Intertie Bennett substation transformer upgrade, Intertie

Restoration clearance mitigations on 500 kV 1201L and
reactive power support to help restore transfer
capability of Alberta—B.C. intertie

Chapel Rock–Pincher Add one new 240 kV transmission circuit Generation - thermal
Creek Area Transmission approximately 40 km long between Pincher
Development Creek area and a new 500 kV substation to
be called Chapel Rock and voltage support
equipment added at existing Goose Lake
substation

West of Lethbridge Increase line rating for 172L between North Load – thermal and
Transmission Lethbridge 370S and Chinook 181S voltage
Enhancement Increase line rating for 463L between Chinook
181S and Monarch Tap
Add voltage support device at Monarch 492S

Tilley Substation Expand existing Tilley 498S substation to Load – thermal and
240 kV with one 240/138 kV transformer and voltage
tap onto 1034L between Cassils 324S and
Bowmanton 244S

Warner Substation New voltage support device Load - voltage

55 4.0 Transmission planning and developments

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There are currently three temporary RAS schemes that require tripping load after the first
contingency to mitigate voltage and thermal violations at the Tilley and Warner substations.
Additional capacitor banks will be required at Warner to remove one RAS, while a new 240 kV
substation expansion at Tilley will remove the other two RAS by introducing a new 240 kV source
into the 138 kV system.

Intertie restoration
The existing Alberta—B.C. intertie has an import and export capability of 800 MW and 1,000 MW
respectively. The existing MATL has an import and export capability of 310 MW and 315 MW respectively.
The simultaneous B.C./Montana import capability is limited to 1,110 MW. The T-Reg requires the AESO
to plan and make arrangements to restore each intertie to, or near to, its path rating.

The planning for intertie restoration can be described in three blocks:

„ B lock One−includes the installation of a new transformer at Bennett to increase
capacity, restoration of the thermal rating of 1201L by mitigating clearance issues for a
few spans, and the installation of a series capacitor to help prevent voltage collapse.
This block is needed to allow the interties to be scheduled at or near to its path rating
and to ensure that the loss of the most severe single contingency (MSSC) does not
cause the intertie to trip. The AESO refers to this block as enhancing the loadability of
the interties.
„ B lock Two−comprises the CRPC transmission line and reactive support equipment.
While the primary driver for CRPC is generation integration, the nature of the CRPC
connection also improves the loadability of the interties.
„ B lock Three−addresses the frequency of the Alberta system if the intertie trips while
operating at or near the path ratings. Loss of interties at high imports will result in a
large drop in system frequency. Currently, the AESO is developing technology-agnostic
technical requirements for an ancillary service that would be used to manage frequency
performance for intertie trips. This will expand service to allow participation from any
technology that can meet the technical requirements including load, energy storage,
fast-acting generators or other technologies. The AESO will consider whether installing
a back-to-back convertor on the MATL intertie is an economic and technically viable
solution, or partial solution, in this block.

SO U TH

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 56

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

C
 ALGARY PLANNING REGION
Existing transmission system

Legend East
Crossfield
Cities/Towns CROSSFIELD
Substations
69/72 kV
138/144 kV
240 kV
500 kV

AIRDRIE

Beddington

CALGARY

CHESTERMERE
SS-8

East
SS-2 Calgary

Sarcee Janet Chestermere

LANGDON
Shepard Crossings
Langdon

Bennett

SS-65

View SLDs: www.aeso.ca/grid/LTP

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Calgary Planning Region

Overview and forecast

The Calgary Planning Region includes the City of Calgary, Airdrie and the surrounding area, and
accounts for about 34 per cent of the province’s total population. The region is characterized
primarily by urban load, including significant residential and commercial demand, as well as some
industrial load. Although this region has been a winter peaking jurisdiction in past years, it was
summer peaking in 2018 due to an unusually hot summer in the Calgary area.
This region represents 12 per cent of provincial load. Summer peak average annual load growth
has been 1 per cent over the past 10 years while winter peak load has decreased by 0.05 per cent.
The Reference Case assumes summer and winter peak will grow at 0.3 per cent and 0.6 per cent
respectively to 2039 due to population growth and associated commercial and residential demand
growth, in addition to electric vehicle adoption. Increased rooftop solar adoption and energy
efficiency gains also offset load growth.
The Calgary Planning Region contains 1,456 MW of generation capacity—all gas fired—including
144 MW of simple-cycle and 1,300 MW of combined-cycle. Generation capacity has increased over
the past 10 years, mainly from the Shepard Energy Centre.
The generation forecast for the Calgary Planning Region has only moderate additions of simple-
cycle generation.

Table 4.8-11: Calgary regional reference case load and generation capacity forecast

Calendar Year 2018 (MW) 2024 (MW)

Region Peak Load 1,795 1,765

Coal-fired / Coal-to-gas 0 0

Cogeneration 12 12

Combined-cycle 1,300 1,300

Simple-cycle 144 190

Hydroelectric 0 0

Wind 0 0

Solar* 0 0

Other 0 0

Total Generation Capacity 1,456 1,502

*This table does not include rooftop solar which is taken into account within the load forecast
CA LG A RY

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AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Existing transmission system

The existing transmission system in the Calgary Planning Region is designed to serve local load and
transfer power from major generation centres to Calgary and the surrounding area.
The regional 240 kV network is served by the 500 kV HVDC WATL from the Edmonton–Wabamun
Lake area, and six existing north-to-south 240 kV transmission lines that terminate near and in
Calgary, one of the major transmission hubs on the grid. Calgary has five main 240 kV supply
substations: Sarcee on the west side of the city, East Calgary in the south centre, Janet and SS-65
on the southeast side, and Beddington in the north. The underlying transmission system within the
Calgary area consists of 138 kV and 69 kV circuits delivering power to load-serving substations.
In addition, the 500 kV Alberta—B.C. intertie connects to the system near Langdon.

Transmission project status

„ Downtown Calgary Transmission Development–is a new 138 kV single-circuit line to

interconnect the ENMAX No. 2 and ENMAX No. 8 substations. The NID Application is
approved by the AUC and the project is expected to be in service in 2021.

Transmission plans
The AESO is currently working with ENMAX to investigate alternatives to mitigate high short-circuit
levels in the City of Calgary’s downtown area. Substation equipment upgrades or transmission line
reconfigurations can be employed to help reduce the short-circuit level observed.
Currently there is a RAS that is designed to trip load connected to Chestermere in the event of
thermal overload or under-voltage conditions. These conditions could occur if load grows quickly
at Chestermere. To mitigate the potential of tripping load after the first transmission contingency, a
new 138 kV transmission line is needed between Janet and Chestermere to mitigate the thermal and
voltage concerns.

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As additional renewables development occurs in regions south of Calgary, the flow pattern in the
Calgary region can be impacted as renewables generation flows north to replace conventional
generation, crossing the Calgary Region. This change of flow pattern can further stress the 240 kV
backbone system and some of the 138 kV transmission lines that parallel the north-south 240 kV
system in Calgary. Additional reinforcement may be needed in Calgary to help manage the change
of flow pattern as a result of the changing generation mix within the province.

Table 4.8-12: Developments required to mitigate the identified constraints

Development Description Driver

Downtown Calgary Short-circuit mitigation for downtown Calgary Load – short circuit
Short-Circuit Mitigation

Chestermere Area New 138 kV line from Janet 74S to Chestermere Load – thermal and
491S voltage

CA LG A RY

4.0 Transmission planning and developments 60

5.0
Longer-term system plans
 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Longer-term system
plans
The LTP uses a scenario-based approach testing different
generation and load assumptions to determine a flexible plan
that can respond to uncertainties in pace and magnitude of
future load and generation changes.

The objective of longer-term assessment is to provide a high-level vision of potential developments for
different prospective shifts in the future. These transmission developments are highly dependent on
the pace of load or generation growth in all the regions; however, they are meant to be flexible so that
they can be advanced or timed as necessary to address the needs that can arise on the transmission
system. Other factors that can influence transmission system developments include pace of:

„ Coal-fired generation retirement.

„ Renewables generation developments.

„ Oil sands development or alternate industries in the province.

„ Development of cogeneration facilities.

Scenarios in the 2019 LTO capture the potential trends and are being used to identify possible
transmission needs so the AESO can develop a flexible plan that meets the needs of many
future scenarios.
The 2019 LTO identified multiple scenarios that represent differing generation and load assumptions
regarding the future of electricity supply and demand in Alberta. The 2020 LTP examined five
scenarios: Reference Case, High Cogeneration Sensitivity, Alternate Renewables Policy (Faster-Pace
Renewables), High Load Growth, and Low Load Growth. As part of the Low Load Growth Scenario,
a high DER penetration sensitivity is also developed. By examining these scenarios and sensitivities,
various transmission developments can be identified based on different potential outcome in
generation and load.
The LTO’s Diversification Scenario focuses on changes in industry type within the Alberta economy,
and is not expected to have a major influence on identified transmission enhancements as the
overall differences in load and generation in all regions are covered by the other studied scenarios.
Therefore, the 2020 LTP did not perform studies for the Diversification Scenario.
Overall, with focus placed on the bulk transmission system, the longer-term assessment considers
only 500 kV and 240 kV level contingencies. However, the 138/144 kV system is also monitored for
any thermal or voltage violations, and in specific situations investigated to also provide a high-level
plan to provide reliable long-term supply to an area.
For detailed generation and load assumptions of each scenario, please refer to the 2019 LTO at
www.aeso.ca/grid/forecasting.

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AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Reference Case

South Planning Region and Calgary Planning Region

There are no additional load-driven transmission needs observed beyond what was identified in
the near-term assessment. As part of the intertie restoration project, the third and last block that
fully restores the intertie to the original 1,200 MW capability is forecast to take place in the medium
term. If the MATL back-to-back HVDC converter is chosen as a solution to Block Three frequency
requirements for intertie restoration, this development will take place in the South Planning Region.

Central Planning Region

There are no additional load-driven transmission needs observed in the longer term. The approved
PENV transmission development reinforces the area and mitigates the local overloads identified in
the previous LTPs. The PENV development will initially be energized at the 138 kV level for the near
term. The milestone trigger to convert to 240 kV operation to provide additional capabilities
to the region is forecast to take place in the medium term. For the CETO development as outlined
in Section 4.5, the second stage of the project will be triggered by a milestone associated with
committed renewables developments. The timing of this trigger is forecast to take place in the
medium- to long-term time period. The timing could be advanced if the pace of renewables
generation progresses faster than forecast.

Edmonton Planning Region

The near-term assessment for the Edmonton Planning Region has identified a need for additional
500/240 kV transformation capacity. There are also 240 kV thermal violations observed; however,
they can be resolved by the use of existing operational measures, including: open the bus tie
breaker at Bellamy without putting load at risk; 240 kV line reconfiguration; Keephills phase-shifting
transformer operation; or EATL and WATL re-dispatch. Even though the operational measures
continue to be sufficient in removing the 240 kV overload in the long term, the increased reliance on
operational measures long term reduces the system’s flexibility to respond to other contingencies
elsewhere. Therefore, a longer-term solution that provides strong reinforcement and additional
operational flexibility should be considered. Options include:

„ B uild a 500 kV line between the Keephills substation and Sundance substation so that
more power flows toward Sundance and on to north Edmonton, to relieve the loading
at Ellerslie.
„ B uild a new 240 kV circuit between the Ellerslie substation and Argyll in-out connection
point, and connect it with the existing 1055L that goes into Argyll. Bundle the existing
1055L transmission line to the existing 908L transmission line from the Petrolia
substation to the Argyll in-out connection point. Re-conductor the remaining portion of
908L from the Argyll in-out connection point to the Ellerslie substation.
„ R econfigure the 240 kV system between and around the Sundance and Keephills
generation plants.

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The 500 kV development between Sundance and Keephills can help resolve both 500/240 kV
transformation needs as well as the 240 kV overloads. Alternatively, additional 240 kV reinforcement
in the southern Edmonton Planning Region can also mitigate 240 kV overloads; however, this
alternative does not provide system and operational benefit at the same level as the Sundance—
Keephills 500 kV development. The AESO will continue to monitor this situation and propose the
required upgrade at the appropriate time.

Northwest and Northeast Planning Regions

There are no additional load-driven transmission needs observed beyond what was identified
in the near-term assessment. Depending on the location and pace of generation developments,
other transmission upgrades may be needed to connect the new facilities and enable bulk
system transfer.

High Cogeneration Sensitivity

The High Cogeneration Sensitivity Scenario focuses on the Fort McMurray area in the Northeast
Planning Region, which is the heart of oil sands operations in Alberta. The primary purpose of
these cogeneration units is to supply steam for the local oil sand operations while excess power is
sold to the electricity market. Under the scenario, a total of 1,900 MW of additional cogeneration
developments is forecasted by 2039 for the Northeast. This is much higher than the 500 MW
forecast under the Reference Case; therefore, the 2020 LTP studied the scenario to evaluate the
impact of incremental cogeneration integration for the Northeast.
The existing transmission system in the Northeast Planning Region, including the 500 kV FMW
transmission line, is capable of accommodating 500 MW of additional conventional generation in
the Fort McMurray area. With 1,900 MW of additional cogeneration in the forecast, the following
components are potentially required:

„ Upgrade the existing 240 kV line from the Dover to Birchwood Creek substations.

„ Build a new 500 kV line between the Heartland and Thickwood Hills substations (FME).

The 240 kV upgrade is capable of providing approximately 300 MW of additional transfer capability.
Separately, the 500 kV FME transmission line is capable of adding approximately 1,300 MW of
additional transfer capability. The actual pace of cogeneration developments in the area will drive
the timing and selection of the transmission developments.

Alternate Renewables Policy

The 2020 LTP considered two different paces of renewables development. Under the Alternate
Renewables Policy Scenario, also referred to as the “Faster-Pace Renewables Scenario,” there
are more renewables connecting to the grid. To enable these anticipated renewables beyond the
capability provided by CETO and CRPC, the AESO has investigated a number of alternatives to
determine the most effective plan. The alternatives investigated include:

„ E ATL bi-pole (converting the existing EATL HVDC from today’s mono-pole operation to
bi-pole operation by adding additional converters and voltage support devices at the
two terminals).
„ ECW, PBEC and GLEC 240 kV lines.

„ FATDW 240 kV line.

„ SS65 to Sarcee 240 kV line (a variation of FATDW).

„ Anderson to Heartland 500 kV line.

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The most effective plan to integrate renewables generation is to convert EATL to bi-pole operation.
Currently, EATL is operated in mono-pole mode with approximately 1,000 MW of transfer capability.
The conversion of EATL to bi-pole will double the existing transfer capability, enabling additional
capability mainly in the southeast area, but will also help the southwest and central east areas by
evacuating more power through HVDC to the north and providing relief for the most constrained
transfer-out paths out of these regions. The conversion requires only substation facilities; no new DC
transmission line addition is required. However, with additional flow on EATL, additional transmission
developments will be required in the Edmonton and South Planning Regions to accommodate higher
flow. The additions will likely involve additional 240 kV lines as well as 500/240 kV transformers.

High Load Growth

Under the High Load Growth Scenario, the total AIL is forecast to grow up to 17,193 MW. This
is about 3,000 MW higher compared to the 2039 load of 14,274 MW for the Reference Case. As
indicated in the 2019 LTO, the primary load growth is driven by oil, natural gas, and petrochemical
activities. Therefore, the corresponding cogeneration levels are also higher. Both combined-cycle
and simple-cycle units are also added earlier in the forecast, with the level of renewables additions
marginally lower than the Reference Case.
With significant oil and gas industry load growth, the Northwest Planning Region is impacted
significantly and requires more transmission developments to serve the higher load reliably.
To serve potential load growth in the region, the following components are potentially required:

„ C onvert the 144 kV line from 9L11 to Clairmont Lake, as identified in the near-term plan,
to 240 kV operation.
„ Build a new 240 kV line from the Little Smoky to Big Mountain substations.

„ Build new 144 kV lines between the:

— Big Mountain and Flyingshot substations.

— Flyingshot substation and a new future 144 kV substation.
— New future 144 kV substation and Poplar Hills substation.
— Big Mountain and Thornton substations.
„ B uild a second 240 kV circuit from the Little Smoky to Fox Creek substations and
continue to the Bickerdike substation.

The two 240 kV developments/conversions—one from 9L11 to Clairmont Lake and one from Little
Smoky to Big Mountain—serve as the backbone to reinforce supply into the Grande Prairie area.
This area is the base of a number of gas-drilling activities; under a High Load Growth Scenario, a
large amount of load growth is anticipated in the area. The remaining 144 kV developments identified
above serve to further distribute the supply from the main 240 kV backbone to individual substations
locally and reinforce the supply into the Grande Prairie Loop area. They also serve as the loop
connecting the northern 240 kV backbone (9L11 to Clairmont Lake) and the southern 240 kV
backbone (Little Smoky to Big Mountain). Lastly, the second 240 kV circuit between Little Smoky—
Fox Creek—Bickerdike is to reinforce the supply into the Northwest Planning Region from the south.
The timing of these transmission developments will depend largely on the pace of load growth in the
region. Large conventional generation developments can also impact the timing of the need for the
above transmission developments. Under the High Growth Scenario, the above developments are
envisioned to be needed in the medium term, and the second Little Smoky—Fox Creek—Bickerdike
circuit is envisioned to be needed in the long term.

64 5.0 Longer-term system plans

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For the Central Planning Region, there are a number of potential overloads due to higher load on
the 138 kV local network with two 240 kV sources. These include the 138 kV systems between
Nevis and Coyote Lake, Johnson to Hazelwood, and Brazeau to Keephills. A portion of these 138
kV systems, which are fed on two sides, can overload if the system loses supply on one side. The
AESO will closely monitor these areas and will develop appropriate transmission plans to ensure
supply remains reliable.

Table 5.0-1: Summary of proposed transmission developments from longer-term scenarios

Scenario Transmission Developments Driver

Reference Case CETO second stage for additional transfer-out Generation - thermal
capability
PENV 240 kV conversion for additional Generation - thermal
renewables integration capability
MATL back-to-back HVDC converter Intertie
(AIR Block Three)
Keephills to Sundance 500 kV line or 240 kV Generation - thermal
transmission line upgrades in the Edmonton
region

Alternate Renewables Including Reference Case developments

Policy (Faster-Pace Potential EATL bi-pole for additional transfer Generation - thermal
Renewables) capability

High Load Growth Including Reference Case developments

Significant 240 kV developments are required in Load - thermal
the NW for load growth

High Cogeneration Including Reference Case developments

240 kV enhancements (Dover to Birchwood Generation - thermal
Creek substations) and 500 kV FME line between
Heartland and Thickwood Hills substations
to enhance transfer capability to/from Fort
McMurray

5.0 Longer-term system plans 65

6.0
Conclusions
 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Conclusions
A safe, reliable transmission system that has a flexible
development plan is critical to the economic well-being
and future prosperity of Alberta.

„ Northwest Planning Region

— 240 kV developments are needed in the Fox Creek and Grande Prairie areas with
additional 240/138 kV transformation capability required at the Little Smoky substation
for the near term.
— A s load continues to grow, additional voltage support devices are required in the
Grande Cache and High Prairie areas as well.
— If load grows significantly in the region, the near-term developments can serve as a
foundation for a number of additional 240 kV and 144 kV developments to provide
reliable long-term supply to the Northwest.
„ Northeast Planning Region

— If significant cogeneration developments take place for the oil sands in the Fort
McMurray area, construction of the approved FME 500 kV line, together with a
240 kV transmission line upgrade will be required to accommodate the developments.

Transmission reliability is the ability of the transmission system to

withstand sudden disturbances or the unanticipated loss of facilities
on the system.

6.0 Conclusions 66
AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

„ Edmonton Planning Region

— T he City of Edmonton’s 72 kV system is reaching its limit. The AESO continues to work
with the TFO to determine the best plan for reliable long-term supply into the city.
— Additional 500/240 kV transformation is also needed in the near term for the 500 kV
KEG loop to help alleviate overloads observed on the existing transformers at the
Ellerslie substation.
— D epending on the pace of coal-to-gas conversion, the pace of renewables
developments, and the potential to connect additional conventional generation in
the Wabamun Lake area, additional 500 kV developments near Sundance or 240 kV
transmission line developments are required.
„ Central Planning Region

— T he 240 kV CETO development is required to accommodate additional renewables

development in the region.
„ South Planning Region

— In addition to projects related to renewables integration and intertie restoration, load
growth at and near the City of Lethbridge is expected to require an additional voltage
support device, as well as transmission line upgrades for two 138 kV lines in the area.
„ Calgary Planning Region

— T he AESO is currently investigating the potential need to mitigate high short-circuit

levels downtown and a plan will be provided in the near future.
„ Renewables Development

— D epending on the location and pace in the south and central east areas, various
stages of CETO or CPRC will also be needed to enable timely integration of renewables
generation. These two transmission developments are staged with milestones; the
implementation of various components will be triggered when required.
— D epending on the pace, additional transmission developments may be required in the
South and Edmonton Planning Regions. Currently there a number of RAS that trigger
load shed after the first contingency. To mitigate the need for these RAS and to help
strengthen the system locally, capacitor banks and 138 kV and 240 kV transmission
developments may be required.
„ Technology Development

— A s emerging technologies continue to evolve and become more available at a

lower cost, the 2020 LTP also investigated the potential impact of large-scale DER
integration in the urban centres as well as the potential impact of additional energy
storage facilities. Even with a stretched assumption, the transmission system is
expected to handle the potential technology evolution.

67 6.0 Conclusions
 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

7.0 Glossary of terms

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Glossary of terms
Alberta Internal Load (AIL): The total electricity consumption within the province of Alberta, including
behind-the-fence (BTF) load, the City of Medicine Hat and losses (transmission and distribution).
Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC): The provincial body accountable for regulating the utilities sector,
natural gas and electricity markets.
Alternating current (AC): A current that flows alternately in one direction and then in the reverse
direction. In North America, the standard for alternating current is 60 complete cycles each second.
Cycles per second is also referred to as Hertz (Hz).
Ancillary services: Services necessary to support the transmission of energy from resources to loads
based on consumption (for loads) and dispatch (for suppliers).
Behind-the-fence load (BTF): Industrial load served, in whole or in part, by onsite generation built on
the host’s site.
Brownfield: Land previously or currently used for industrial or certain commercial purposes.
Bulk transmission system: The integrated system of transmission lines and substations that delivers
electric power from major generating stations to load centres. The bulk system, which generally includes
500 kilovolt (kV) and 240 kV transmission lines and substations, also delivers/receives power to and from
adjacent control areas.
Bus (busbar): Electrically conductive structures in a substation to which elements such as transformers
or transmission lines are connected.
Capability: The maximum load that a generating unit, generating station or other electrical apparatus
can carry under specified conditions for a given period of time without exceeding limits of temperature
and stress.
Capacitor/capacitor bank: A device used to control voltages by eliminating a voltage drop in
the system.
Capacity: The amount of electric power delivered or required for a generator, turbine, transformer,
transmission circuit, substation or system as rated by the manufacturer.
Circuit: A conductor or a system of conductors through which electric current flows.
Cogeneration: The simultaneous production of electricity and another form of useful thermal energy
used for industrial, commercial, heating or cooling purposes.
Combined-cycle: A system in which a gas turbine generates electricity and the waste heat is used to
create steam to generate additional electricity using a steam turbine.
Congestion: The condition under which transactions that electricity market participants wish to
undertake are constrained by conditions on the transmission grid.
Constraint: A restriction on a transmission system or segment of a transmission system that may limit
the ability to transmit power between various locations.
Distributed energy resources (DER): Electrical generation and storage performed by a variety of
small, grid-connected devices, generally with capacities of 10 MW or less and located close to the load
they serve.

68 7.0 Glossary of terms

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Distribution facility owner (DFO): Entities that own and operate distribution lines, the portion of the
Alberta electrical system operating at 25 kilovolts (25,000 volts) or less. These distribution lines provide
service to most consumers, except for some very large industries that are directly connected to the
transmission grid.
Gas turbine: See simple-cycle.
Generating unit: Any combination of an electrical generator physically connected to reactor(s), boiler(s),
combustion or wind turbine(s) or other prime mover(s) and operated together to produce electric power.
Greenfield: Land being considered for development that has not previously been used for commercial
or industrial purposes.
Grid: A system of interconnected power lines and generators that is operated as a unified whole to
supply customers at various locations. Also known as a transmission system.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): One of the measures of national income and output for a given
country’s economy. GDP is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced
within the country in a given period of time (usually a calendar year). It is also considered as the sum of
the value added at every stage of production (the intermediate stages) of all final goods and services
produced within a country in a given period of time and is given a monetary value.
High voltage direct current (HVDC): The transmission of electricity using direct current.
Interconnection or transmission interconnection: An arrangement of electrical lines and/
or transformers that provides an interconnection to the transmission system for a generator or large
commercial or industrial customer.
Intertie: A transmission facility or facilities, usually transmission lines, which interconnect two adjacent
electric systems and allow power to be imported and exported.
Load (electric): The electric power used by devices connected to an electric system.
Load factor: A measure of the average load, in kilowatts, supplied during a given period. It is generally
used to determine the total amount of energy that would have been used if a given customer’s maximum
load was sustained over an extended period of time and, through comparison, show what percentage of
potential load was actually used.
Looped system (loop): A system of power lines in which circuits are contiguously connected between
substations and then back to the same substation.
Megawatt (MW): An electrical capacity unit of measure equal to one million watts of power supply,
demand, flow or capacity.
Merit order: In the wholesale electricity market, merit order refers to the list used to dispatch electricity
generation to meet demand. The lowest-cost generation is dispatched first.
Needs Identification Document (NID): A document filed by the AESO with the AUC to define the need
to reinforce the transmission system to meet load growth, and/or provide non-discriminatory access to
interconnect new loads and generators to the system.
Operating reserve: Generating capacity that is held in reserve for system operations and can be
brought online within a short period of time to respond to a contingency. Operating reserve may be
provided by generation that is already online (synchronized) and loaded to less than its maximum output,
and is available to serve customer demand almost immediately. Operating reserve may also be provided
by interruptible load.
Parallel path: Electric power flows on all interconnected parallel paths in amounts inversely proportional
to each path’s resistance. This also refers to the flow of electric power on one electric system’s
transmission facilities resulting from scheduled electric power transfers between other electric systems.

7.0 Glossary of terms 69

AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Peak load/demand: The maximum power demand (load) registered by a customer or a group of
customers or a system in a stated period of time. The value may be the maximum instantaneous load or,
more usually, the average load over a designated interval of time such as one hour, and is normally stated
in kilowatts or megawatts.
Peaking capacity: The capacity of generating equipment normally reserved for operation during hours
of the highest daily, weekly, or seasonal loads. Some generating equipment may be operated at certain
times as peaking capacity, and at other times to serve loads on an around-the-clock basis.
Point-of-delivery (POD): Point(s) for interconnection on the transmission facility owner’s (TFO) system
where capacity and/or energy is made available to the end-use customer.
Power pool: An independent, central, open-access entity that functions as a spot market, matching
demand with the lowest-cost supply to establish an hourly pool price.
Reactive power: The component of electric power that does not provide real work but is required to
provide voltage.
Reliability: The combined adequacy and security of an electric system. Adequacy is the ability of the
electric system to supply the aggregate electrical demand and energy requirements of customers at all
times, taking into account scheduled and unscheduled outages of system facilities. Security is the ability
of the electric system to withstand sudden disturbances such as electric short-circuits or unanticipated
loss of system facilities.
Reserve: See “operating reserve.”
Reserve margin: The percentage of installed capacity exceeding the expected peak demand during a
specified period.
Simple-cycle: Where a gas turbine is the prime mover in a plant. A gas turbine consisting typically of
one or more combustion chambers where liquid or gaseous fuel is burned. The hot gases are passed to
the turbine where they expand, driving the turbine that in turn drives the generator.
Single circuit: A transmission line where one circuit is carried on a set of structures (poles or lattice
towers).
Solar (power): A process that produces electricity by converting solar radiation to electricity or to
thermal energy to produce steam to drive a turbine.
Substation/switching station: A facility where equipment is used to tie together two or more electric
circuits through switches (circuit breakers). The switches are selectively arranged to permit a circuit to be
disconnected or to change the electric connection between the circuits.
Tariff (transmission): The terms and conditions under which transmission services are provided,
including the rates or charges that users must pay.
Thermal overload: A condition where the thermal limit of a piece of electrical equipment such as a
conductor or transformer is exceeded.
Transfer capability: The measure of the ability of interconnected electric systems to move or transfer
power in a reliable manner from one area to another over all transmission lines (or paths) between those
areas under specified system conditions. The units of transfer capability can be expressed in megawatts.
Transformer: An electrical device for changing the voltage of alternating current.
Transmission: The transfer of electricity over a group of interconnected lines and associated equipment,
between points of supply and points at which it is transformed for delivery to consumers or is delivered to
other electric systems.

70 7.0 Glossary of terms

 AESO 2020 Long-term Transmission Plan

Transmission facility owner (TFO): The owner of the system of high-voltage power lines and
equipment that links generating units to large customer loads and to distribution systems.
Transmission system (electric): An interconnected group of electric transmission lines and
associated equipment for moving or transferring electricity in bulk between points of supply and points
at which it is transformed for delivery over the distribution system lines to consumers, or is delivered to
other electric systems.
Voltage: The difference of electrical potential between two points of an electrical circuit expressed in
volts. It is the measurement of the potential for an electric field to cause an electric current in an electrical
conductor. Depending on the amount of difference of electrical potential, it is referred to as extra-low
voltage, low voltage, high voltage or extra-high voltage.
Voltage stability: Operation within acceptable voltage ranges. Normal voltage limits are defined as
the operating voltage range on the interconnected system that is acceptable on a sustained basis.
Emergency voltage limits are defined as the operating voltage range on the interconnected system that
is acceptable for the time sufficient for system adjustments to be made following a facility outage or
system disturbance.
Voltage violation: A measured or calculated condition where the voltage at a point on the transmission
system is outside the acceptable limits as described in the criteria.

7.0 Glossary of terms 71

Alberta Electric System Operator

2500, 330-5th Avenue SW

Calgary, AB T2P 0L4
Phone: 403-539-2450
www.aeso.ca

01/20