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Module 1 Notes

The document discusses quantitative and qualitative approaches to management science decision making. It describes quantitative approaches as using objective, scientific methods to determine optimal solutions, while qualitative approaches rely more on subjective factors like experience. The document then outlines several quantitative forecasting and decision models that can be used, including regression analysis, time series analysis, and causal models. These quantitative methods aim to predict outcomes like revenues or sales based on past data trends and the relationships between independent and dependent variables.

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SOFIA ERYL GARCINES
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40 views3 pages

Module 1 Notes

The document discusses quantitative and qualitative approaches to management science decision making. It describes quantitative approaches as using objective, scientific methods to determine optimal solutions, while qualitative approaches rely more on subjective factors like experience. The document then outlines several quantitative forecasting and decision models that can be used, including regression analysis, time series analysis, and causal models. These quantitative methods aim to predict outcomes like revenues or sales based on past data trends and the relationships between independent and dependent variables.

Uploaded by

SOFIA ERYL GARCINES
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Module 1

Management Science

- If you use quantitative approach- you’ll come up with optimal decision

Historical Development

US strengthen territorial- polarius project (counter attack to enemies)

Because of production process, they use management science (gawaan ng sasakyan- because of
machines production became faster)

Example in airconditioning how much horsepower is needed to cover a number of floor square ft

Use of cards in atm

7 STEPS OF PROBLEM SOLVING

Classification of Decision Making Process

Single-criterion: one objective

Multi-criteria- you want to achieve a lot in your objectives/ many objectives

Qualitative- subjective- manager’s judgment, experience, intuition more of an art than science

Ex. You want to know about freshmen experiences

Quantitative- objective, you address the problem, scientific

Why is quantitative better

There is no single solution (complex)

Model development- you’ll end up with good report generation if you have good and correct model

Example: determine the revenues of government and estimate 2025 revenue

You will conduct a model (linear regression, multiple regression)

Collect past 10 yrs of revenue

Check if data is linear in nature, or multiple regression

Generate now your 205 revenue


Module 2

Delphi method

-paramihan ng boto, majority of votes will win, must come up with a majority decision

Ex. Pagpili or pagvote ng Pope

Jury of executive opinion

-kuha opinion from a small group

Ex. Wala pang pope na Asian

Sales force composite

Ex. Sales person in Luzon, Vis and Min-get their indiv sals then come up with the nationa or overall sales

Consumer Market survey

-ask consumer what they prefer or need, so if you introduce the product to the market they would buy it

Causal Models

-variable x affects the y

-regression models

-independent and dependent variable

Ex. When you study for exam the result will be a good score

Time Series model

-attempt to predict future value

-independent variable is time element (daily, weekly, and monthly)

-dependent variable (relies on time such as sales, revenue, consumption)

-perform moving average, weighted moving average, exponentials, and the composition of time series
model (you have seasonality: trend), decomposition (you are separating trend from seasonality)
Regression Analysis

-predict the dependent variable based on the independent variable

Correlation Analysis

-measure the strength of the relationship between two variables

-not because there is high correlation between x and y it already means x is affecting y (this assumption
refers to causal effect)

-normal (Perason), not normal (Spearman)

-should only be between -1 and 1

Residual plot- differences between predicted and actual sales

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