Kirloskar Initial (Edelweiss)
Kirloskar Initial (Edelweiss)
We attended Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd (KPCL)’s investor day. KPCL manufactures air, Himanshu Yadav
refrigeration and gas compressors and systems that account for 95% of sales. It serves Research Analyst
diverse industries such as oil, gas, steel, cement, food processing, air separation and Himanshu.Yadav@edelweiss.in
automobiles, among others. The manufacturing facilities are located at Pune and Nashik.
The compressor industry is dominated by four large organised players that account for
80%+ of sales. KPCL aims to double its revenue to INR2,000cr in next 2–3 years, implying
CMP: INR 584
a 25%+ CAGR. Margin expansion potential exists, as the business scales up and reduces
Rating: Not Rated
losses in transmission gears. Management expects margins to reach 17–18% by FY25E.
Date: August 24, 2022
Management focused on expanding addressable market
KPCL is focusing on improving its product mix to tap future opportunities and fill the existing
portfolio gaps. Several recent initiatives in this direction include increased presence in screw QUICK DATA
compressors (air and refrigeration), launch of booster compressors for the CGD market and No of shares (in Cr) 6.4
entry into overseas oil and gas markets after executing a major export order in Q1FY23. 52-week High/Low (INR) 325 / 572
Over the medium term, KPCL has set its sight on the gasification of energy basket and plans Bloomberg Code KKPC
to manufacture compressors catering to hydrogen and biogas markets.
Market cap (INR Cr) 3,635
Screw compressors to provide market share gain opportunity in air compressor market
KPCL recently increased its presence in the screw compressor category, which accounts for
70% of the domestic air compressor market of INR3,330cr. The market has a potential of
INR5,000cr given demand tailwinds, and we note management commentary is shifting
towards this number. KPCL will look to improve its air compressor market share as it exploits
certain niche offerings. Bridging this portfolio gap has led to KPCL now being present in all
three compressor categories – reciprocating, screw and centrifugal.
Financial Summary
Year to March (INR crore) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
Net revenue 601 710 829 823 1,021
EBITDA 75 89 96 113 139
EBITDA margin (%) 12.5 12.6 11.5 13.7 13.6
PAT 49 57 53 64 85
PAT margin (%) 8.1 8.0 6.5 7.8 8.3
EPS basic (INR) 38 9 8 10 13
P/E (x) 19.7 23.1 11.3 25.9 31.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.0 14.4 6.3 14.5 18.6
RoCE (%) 12.8 13.9 12.2 13.0 15.9
RoAE (%) 11.0 11.9 10.8 11.8 13.6
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
Key Takeaways
Broader industrial and infra capex activities drive the demand for compressors. The compressor industry in India is dominated by
four large organised players that account for 80%+ of sales – Atlas Copco, Ingersoll Rand, Elgi Equipment and KPCL.
Products
KPCL primarily offers compressors across air, gas and refrigeration categories. Based on the mechanics of generating volume
compression, air compressors are further divided into three types – reciprocating, screw and centrifugal.
• Reciprocating compressors are low-cost but have relatively high maintenance, and work by reciprocating a piston driven by
a crankshaft. KPCL has a major presence in this segment.
• Screw (rotary) compressors are low- to medium-cost and involve low maintenance compared with reciprocating
compressors. In screw compressors, two closely meshed helical screws (rotors) move to compress air. KPCL has been trying
to bridge product gaps in its portfolio, and marked its recent entry into screw air compressors.
• Centrifugal compressors work on dynamic displacement, unlike positive displacement for reciprocating and screw
compressors. These are high-cost but more efficient than reciprocating and screw compressors, as these involve fewer stages
to achieve the same rise in pressure. These are often preferred in oil-free applications and use an impeller to increase air
velocity and a diffuser to convert the increased velocity into pressure.
Within the gas and refrigeration categories, KPCL offers refrigeration equipment and systems, process gas systems and vapour
absorption chillers.
KPCL’s execution cycle from order to delivery is between 8-12 weeks for products and 8-10 months for projects. It has been filling
the product gaps in its portfolio, and recently (over the past two years), the company entered the screw compressor category for
air compressors and is about to launch the Khione compressor for refrigeration, which will cater to industries such as dairy and
pharma.
Exhibit 1: KPCL significantly bridged the portfolio gap in its product mix
Compressor
Vapour
Refrigeration Refrigeration Process Gas
Reciprocating Screw Centrifugal Absorption
Equipment Systems Systems
Chillers
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
Market Size
KPCL’s entry into screw air compressors significantly widened the addressable market for the company over the past two years.
Management indicated towards improving market size of air compressors. Its old estimates indicated market size of INR3,300cr
for air compressors; however, in the recent meeting, management guided for potential to inch up as the strong demand
environment and INR4,000–5,000cr market size for air compressors appears plausible.
Exhibit 2: FY22 market size as per June presentation – air compressor market potentially expanding to INR 4,000–5,000cr
INR4,000–5000cr
plausible?
Mix
• Management highlighted that KPCL is not just a compressor manufacturer, but they also supply compression systems. A
compressor system would sell for ~INR30 lakh, else the cost of a compressor is just one-third of that.
• Current sales mix is 25% for air compressors, 30–35% for refrigeration and 40–45% gas compressors. Overall, the project
product split ranges around 60:40 for the company.
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
Air Compressors
• The air compressor market size as per the management is INR4,000–5,000cr (revised up from their earlier stance of
3,300cr). Of this, ~75% share is held by screw compressors. Overall, growth for the industry should be mapped to GDP
plus inflation and not just IIP, as compressors have end-use beyond industries.
• KPCL has been a small player till now in the air compressor segment. In FY22, it sold ~150cr recirpocating compressors,
~100cr screw compressors and small amount of centrifugal compressors. With its entry into the screw compressor
segment, KPCL stands to grow this pie.
• Screw compressors are used when there is a requirement to deliver relatively contonous air, and this segment requires
a distribution network; hence, it is not being targetted for exports currently.
• Another growth driver for the company would be centrifugal compressors, which are relatively complex with respect to
reciprocating and screw compressors. KPCL manufactures its own impellers and gear boxes. These compressors find use
in large industries, such as steel and textiles, which require large volumes of dry air.
• KPCL’s strength lies in customised end-user requirements instead of standard offerings.
Refrigeration
• The overall domestic refrigeration market stands at INR800cr. The mix for KPCL is 50:50 between projects and products.
• KPCL has a dominant position in bare shaft compressors for cold storage, and is the leader with minimal competition in
ammonia recirprocating compressors.
• In terms of product offerings, KPCL provides base compressors to OEMs that install chilling plants for customers by
making other additions. This market is growing at a slow pace, as the installed base is sufficient and generating demand
for spares.
• KPCL launched a new screw compressor, Khione, for the refrigeration market that has an addressable size of INR150cr,
which is being met through imported compressors (Japanese). End-users will include pharma and dairy companies.
• KPCL claims to substitute imports through Khione compressors and provide a 25% cost benefit to the customers. The
company received healthy enquiries, and it will take 1–2 quarters for these to start reflecting in numbers.
• Under project orders, KPCL supplies refrigeration systems to oil and gas, chemical, fertiliser and pharma sectors. The
company provides the entire engineering package, of which compressor is a part.
• Project demand comes in lumps whenever a big refinery is being planned. KPCL’s exection time for such projects is 8–10
months. Currently, the company is receiving many enquires, driven by growth in oil and gas capex.
• KPCL also executes HVAC plants for the marine sector, and has executed orders for INS Vikrant.
Gas
• Gas offerings are primarily divided into CNG and oil and gas projects, roughly at a 50:50 mix.
• CNG stations are divided into mother stations (connected to pipeline) and daughter stations (supplied gas separately
and not through pipeline). Mother stations have only two dominant players including KPCL. Daughter stations have
sevral local players, and to compete with them, KPCL launched booster compressors.
• CNG demand after accounting for some slack could be 350 station per year for KPCL. One package costs INR40–50 lakh.
Based on the bidding rounds for various geographical areas, there is a potential demand for 8,000 compressors over
next eight years.
• CNG tenders are typically based on base compressor and five-year O&M agreement. Local players may try to compete
for booster stations by offering lower bids, but will not offer O&M credibility, unlike KPCL.
• Over the long term, these stations will start seeing replacement demand, as they would need replacements every eight
years. Moreover, KPCL is targeting its research efforts towards other gassification areas, for instance, hydrogen and
biogas.
Other businesses
• Compressors are the key reportable segment for KPCL with 95%+ sales share. The “other” segment consists of two main
bsuiness – transmission gears and road railer.
• For transmission gears, KPCL intends to shift production towards captive needs and expects INR10–12 cr of loss to go
away by next year.
• Road railers, though with an established use case, will take time to scale and would need a logisitc partner in the future.
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
Financials/Outlook
• KPCL expects top-line to reach INR2,000cr in 2–3 years, driven by strong demand. Key drivers would be growth in screw
and centrifugal compressors while retaining solid positioning in refrigeration systems.
• Based on its current asset base, KPCL will likely clock INR1,600cr top-line and require INR150–200cr capex over the next
two years to reach the INR2,000cr target. Capex intensity for the business is at 1:4 of sales.
• Working capital requirement is high, and the business has a net working capital intensity of 18–20% of sales.
• The company’s INR2,000cr target assumes exports increasing from current INR50–100cr to INR300cr. KPCL’s main target
market will be projects in the Middle East and South East Asia.
• Spares account for 15% of sales mix for the industry, with better margins.
• Overall, margins of ~15% at consolidated level include 17–18% margins for compressor segment, which is currently
moderated due to the negative impact of “other” segment. With losses in the “other” segment expected to reduce, KPCL
expects margins to inch towards 18% as the company achieves the INR2,000 target.
• None of the orders have a pass through clause for raw materials. KPCL accordingly manages raw material ordering in
sync with new orders.
• Current order book stands at ~INR1,226cr with a 60:40 split between projects and products. Order book enquiries are
strong and inflows are likely to materialise in upcoming quarters.
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
Financials
Income statement (INR crs)
Year to March FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E
Income from operations 710 829 823 1,021 1,320
Direct costs 374 444 451 560 700
Power & Fuel 10 11 11 14 17
Employee costs 101 116 113 129 172
Other expenses 136 162 135 179 261
Total operating expenses 621 733 710 882 1,150
EBITDA 89 96 113 139 171
Depreciation and amortisation 22 33 38 35 41
EBIT 68 63 75 104 130
Interest expenses 0 2 2 2 0
Other income 15 11 10 12 11
Profit before tax 82 72 84 114 141
Provision for tax 25 18 20 29 36
Core profit 57 53 64 85 105
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Profit after tax 57 53 64 85 105
Extraordinary items -0 0 0 0 0
Reported net profit 57 53 64 85 105
Adjusted Net Profit 57 53 64 85 105
Equity shares outstanding (cr) 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
EPS (INR) basic 38.1 8.9 8.3 9.9 13.2
Diluted shares (Cr) 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
EPS (adj) fully diluted 8.9 8.3 9.9 13.2 16.3
Dividend per share 2.5 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.9
Dividend payout (%) 11% 32% 35% 30% 30%
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
Ratios
Year to March FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E
ROAE (%) 11.9 10.8 11.8 13.6 15.1
ROACE (%) 13.9 12.2 13.0 15.9 18.4
Debtors (days) 94 83 137 107 107
Inventory (days) 50 70 51 72 72
Payable (days) 126 105 126 124 124
Cash conversion cycle (days) 18 48 61 55 55
Debt/EBITDA 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Adjusted debt/Equity (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1)
Valuation parameters
Year to March FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E
Diluted EPS (INR) 8.9 8.3 9.9 13.2 16.3
Y-o-Y growth (%) (76.7) (6.0) 19.3 32.6 23.3
CEPS (INR) 12.3 13.4 15.8 18.6 22.6
Diluted P/E (x) 23.1 11.3 25.9 31.0 34.7
Price/BV(x) 2.7 1.2 2.8 4.0 5.0
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4 6.3 14.5 18.6 21.0
Diluted shares O/S 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Dividend yield (%) 0% 3% 1% 1% 1%
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd.
The Team
Coverage Universe
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Edelweiss Broking Limited, 1st Floor, Tower 3, Wing B, Kohinoor City Mall, Kohinoor City, Kirol Road, Kurla(W)
Board: (91-22) 4272 2200
Vinay Khattar
Head Research
VINAY Digitally signed by
VINAY KHATTAR
vinay.khattar@edelweissfin.com
KHATTAR Date: 2022.08.24
16:09:47 +05'30'
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