Statistics and

Probability
Quarter 4 – Module 1:
Test of Hypothesis
Statistics and Probability – Grade 11
Quarter 4 – Module 1: Test of Hypothesis
First Edition, 2020

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Statistics and
Probability
Quarter 4 – Module 1:
Test of Hypothesis
Introductory Message

For the facilitator:

As a facilitator, you are expected to orient the learners on how to use
this module. You also need to keep track of the learners' progress while
allowing them to manage their learning at home. Furthermore, you are
expected to encourage and assist the learners as they do the tasks included
in the module.

For the learner:

As a learner, you must learn to become responsible of your learning.
Take time to read, understand, and perform the different activities in the
module.
As you go through the different activities of this module be reminded of
the following:
1. Use the module with care. Do not put unnecessary mark/s on any part
of the module. Use a separate sheet of paper in answering the exercises.
2. Don’t forget to answer Let Us Try before moving on to the other
activities.
3. Read the instructions carefully before doing each task.
4. Observe honesty and integrity in doing the tasks and checking your
answers.
5. Finish the task at hand before proceeding to the next.
6. Return this module to your teacher/facilitator once you are done.
If you encounter any difficulty in answering the tasks in this module,
do not hesitate to consult your teacher or facilitator. Always bear in mind that
you are not alone. We hope that through this material, you will experience
meaningful learning and gain deep understanding of the relevant
competencies. You can do it!

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 Let Us Learn

This module was designed and written with you in mind. It is here to
help you master the concept of Tests of Hypothesis. The scope of this module
permits it to be used in many different learning situations. The language used
to recognize the diverse vocabulary level of students. The lessons are arranged
to follow the standard sequence of the course. But the order in which you read
them can be changed to correspond with the textbook you are now using.

The module has one lesson, namely:

• Test of Hypothesis

After going through this module, you are expected to:

1. illustrate: a. null hypothesis, b. alternative hypothesis, c. level of
significance, d. rejection region, and e. types of errors in hypothesis
testing (M11/12SP-IVa-1); and
2. identify the parameter to be tested given a real-life problem
(M11/12SP-IVa-3).

Let Us Try

WHO IS THE FATHER OF MODERN

STATISTICS AND EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN?
Instruction: Find your answer at the bottom of the page and write the letter
of the definition in the box above the answer.
A. It is defined as a proposed explanation for a phenomenon that can be used
as a basis for further verification or investigation.
D. It is defined as a way of comparing whether the expected and the actual
result is the same.
E. It pertains to the degree of confidence we require in order to reject the null
hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
F. It is a quantity calculated from the sample data which value is used to
decide whether or not the null hypothesis should be rejected.
H. It is a threshold to which the value of the test statistic in a sample is
compared to determine whether or not the null hypothesis is rejected.
I. It is a set of values of the test statistic for which the null hypothesis is
rejected.
L. It is an error that can be made in Significant Testing which considers a
conclusion that is drawn stating that a null hypothesis is false when in
fact it is true.

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N. It is an error that occurs when the null hypothesis is rejected when in fact
it is false.
O. It is a non-directional test of the hypothesis.
R. It is a test of hypothesis where the alternative hypothesis specifies a one-
directional difference from the parameter of interest.
S. It is the probability of observing a sample statistic as extreme as the test
statistic, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

SIGNIFICANCE
HYPOTHESIS
TWO-TAILED

PROCEDURE
ONE-TAILED

ONE-TAILED
STATISTIC
CRITICAL

CRITICAL

LEVEL OF
P-VALUE
REGION
TYPE II

VALUE
TYPE I
TEST

TEST

TEST

TEST

TEST
Let Us Study

TEST OF HYPOTHESIS

Curious mind fuels investigations, learnings, and discoveries. A human

mind is always full of queries and tends to seek answers through research.
Despite the many findings and discoveries, there is still a lot to be investigated
and re-investigated since change is endless. For instance, one might want to
know if spraying people with disinfectant lowers the spread of COVID-19, or
what supplements to take to have better protection against the disease.
Filipinos nowadays were also eager to know which among the available
COVID-19 vaccines will be purchased, if they will decide to take one. To arrive
at a decision, research requires a process known as the test of hypothesis.

In conducting a test of hypothesis, we usually use sample data to

estimate what is taking place in a larger population, to which we have no
access. Research questions or statements of the problem were formulated.
Then, we come up with a set of testable predictions known as a hypothesis.
A hypothesis is defined as a proposed explanation (may or may not be true)
for a phenomenon that can be used as a basis for further verification or
investigation.

There are two opposing hypotheses for each phenomenon: the null
hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis,
represented by Ho, states that there is no difference between a parameter and
a statistic, or that there is no difference between two parameters. On the other
hand, the alternative hypothesis, represented by Ha, states the existence of

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a difference between a parameter and a statistic or states that there is a
difference between two parameters.

A decision rule to resolve which of these two opposing hypotheses is

more likely to be true will be followed. The null hypothesis will be rejected in
favor of the alternative hypothesis if the sample evidence strongly suggests
that it is false. In the same manner, if we favor the null hypothesis, we reject
the alternative hypothesis.

Two types of tests were considered for hypothesis testing. A type of test
used for directional hypothesis is known as a one-tailed test, whereas the
one used for a non-directional hypothesis is known as a two-tailed test. A
one-tailed test can only be right-tailed or left-tailed, which leans in the
direction of the inequality of the alternative hypothesis.

To state the hypotheses, we must translate the words into mathematical

symbols. The basic symbols used are as follows:

Equal to = Greater than >

Not equal to ≠ Less than <

The null and alternative hypotheses are stated together, and the null
hypothesis contains the equals sign, as shown (where µo represents a
statistic).

Two-tailed test Right-tailed test Left-tailed test

Ho: µ = µo Ho: µ = µo Ho: µ = µo
Ha: µ ≠ µo Ha: µ > µo Ha: µ < µo

Three different scenarios will be used to show how to identify the

parameter to be tested given a real-life problem and to illustrate how
hypotheses should be stated.

SCENARIO 1

A Virologist is interested in finding out whether a new COVID-19

vaccine will have some severe cases of side effects. He is particularly
concerned with the body temperature of the patients who were injected with
the vaccine. Will the body temperature increase, decrease, or remain
unchanged after a patient is injected with a vaccine? The Virologist knows
that the mean body temperature for the population under study is 37 °C.

Parameter: µ = 37 °C

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 Hypothesis:

Ho: µ = 37 °C and Ha: µ ≠ 37 °C.

The null hypothesis stipulates that the mean will not be different, and
the alternative hypothesis asserts that it will be different. This test is called a
two-tailed test for the possible side effects of the vaccine could be to raise or
lower the body temperature.

SCENARIO 2

There is a recently passed law which makes child car safety seat
compulsory. It is reported that the average cost of a child car safety seat is
greater than ₱1 000. A customer wanted to know if the report is really true.

Parameter: µ = ₱1 000

Hypothesis:

Ho: µ = ₱1 000 and Ha: µ > ₱1 000.

In this situation, the customer is interested only in finding out if the

reported cost of a child car safety seat is really greater than ₱1 000, so her
alternative hypothesis is that the mean is greater than ₱1 000. The null
hypothesis is that the mean is equal to ₱1 000. This test is called right-tailed
(one-tailed) since the interest is whether the cost is really greater.

SCENARIO 3

An actuarial scientist wanted to find out if there is a significant decrease

in the number of people violating the COVID-19 protocols in Davao City last
December 2020. The reported average number of violators per month is 1 756
individuals.

Parameter: µ = 1 756

Hypothesis:

Ho: µ =1 756 and Ha: µ < 1 756

This test is a left-tailed test since the actuarial scientist is interested

only in finding out if there is a significant decrease of COVID-19 violators in
Davao City.

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Level of Significance

When one has formulated the hypothesis, the next step is to make a
research design. The researcher decides on the right statistical test and
selects a fitting level of significance. For example, in Scenario 1, a sample of
patients who will be given the vaccine will be chosen. After letting an
appropriate period for the vaccine to be absorbed, the researcher will take
each patient’s temperature.

Let us remember that when samples of size n are carefully chosen from
a population, the means of these samples will differ from the population mean,
and the spread of these sample means will be nearly normal when the sample
size is 30 or more. This means that even if the null hypothesis is accepted,
the mean of the temperature of the sample of patients will not, in most cases,
be exactly equal to the population mean of 37 °C.

The decision on whether to accept or reject the hypothesis is based on

statistics, and not on hunches or opinions. That is, the difference must be
significant. Therefore, if we accept the null hypothesis, even if the sample
mean differs from the population mean, the difference is not significant at all.
Thus, we say that they are statistically equal. This is where the ideas of
statistical tests and level of significance are used.

The level of significance, usually designated by the alpha (a) symbol

pertains to the degree of confidence we require in order to reject the null
hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. It is the highest probability
of committing a Type I error. The significance testing that we currently use is
a combination of the Ronald Fisher’s idea of utilizing the probability value p
as an index of the weight of evidence against a null hypothesis, and Jerzy
Neyman and Egron Pearson’s notion of testing a null hypothesis against an
alternative hypothesis.

Fisher proposed that 95% is a useful threshold of confidence for only

when we are 95% positive that a result is accurate should we accept it as true.
In other words, if there is only a 5% chance (a = .05) of committing an error,
then we say that it is a statistically significant finding.

Rejection Region

In testing a hypothesis, the researcher decides the level of significance

to be used. The gravity of the type I error will be the basis for the level to be
used. Selecting a critical value from a table, given the appropriate test, will
then follow.

The critical value determines the critical and non-critical regions. The
symbol for critical value is C.V. Critical values had to be computed by
remarkably brilliant people like Fisher. His tables for particular probability
values (.05, .02 and .01) led to a trend that state test statistics as being
significant in today’s well-known p < .05 and p < .01.

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 The critical or rejection region is the range of values of the test
statistic that signifies that there is a significant difference and that the null
hypothesis should be rejected. In contrast, the non-critical or acceptance
region is the range of values of the test statistic that implies that the
difference was possibly coincidental and that the null hypothesis should be
accepted.

A one-tailed test is a directional test in which the rejection region is

situated either on the left or right tail of a normal curve. In connection to this,
the critical value can be on the right or on the left side of the mean for a one-
tailed test. Its position depends on the sign of the inequality sign of the
alternative hypothesis.

For illustration, in Scenario 2, where a customer wanted to know if the

reported average cost of a child car safety seat is indeed greater than ₱1 000,
the alternative hypothesis is Ha: µ > ₱1 000. Since the inequality sign is >, the
null hypothesis will only be rejected when the sample mean is significantly
greater than ₱1 000. Hence, the critical value must be on the right side of the
mean. Therefore, this test is called a right-tailed test.

Shown below is the illustration of the acceptance and rejection regions

of the left-tailed and right-tailed tests based on the statement of the
alternative hypothesis.

Left-tailed Test
(From scenario 3)

Rejection Region Acceptance Region

–1.65
Ha: µ < ₱1 756
a = 0.05

Right-tailed Test
(From scenario 2)

Acceptance Region Rejection Region

1.65
Ha: µ > ₱1 000
a = 0.05

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 A two-tailed test is a non-directional test in which the rejection region
is situated on both tails of a normal curve. The illustration of the acceptance
and rejection regions is shown below.

Two-tailed Test
(From scenario 1)

Rejection Region Rejection Region

Acceptance Region

– 2.58 2.58
Ha: µ ≠ 37 °C
a = 0.01

Type I and Type II Errors

The hypothesis testing procedure has four possible outcomes since the
null hypothesis (Ho) may be true or false, and the decision to reject or accept
it is based only on the statistics taken from samples. As a result, there are
two possibilities for a correct decision and two possibilities for an incorrect
decision, as illustrated below.
True Ho False Ho

Accepted Ho Correct
Type II Error
Decision
False Negative
True Positive

Correct
Type I Error
Rejected Ho Decision
False Positive
True Negative

If a true Ho is rejected, then it will result in a type I error. If we apply

a Fisher’s criterion, then the probability of this error is 5% (a-level). It implies
that out of 100 samples, we could assume that in 5 cases we could obtain a
test statistic large enough to make us believe that there is a real effect in the
population even if there isn’t. On the other hand, if a false Ho is accepted, then
a type II error occurs. Cohen (1992) suggested that the utmost acceptable
probability of a Type II error would be 20% (β-level). That would imply that if

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we selected 100 samples from a population in which a change exists, we would
miss detecting that change in 20 of those samples.
In Scenario 1, a significant effect brought by the COVID-19 vaccine on
the body temperature of the patients might coincidentally exists in the sample
but not in the entire population. Herein, the virologist will reject the Ho when
it is really true, thus causing a type I error.
Contrariwise, the COVID-19 vaccine may not perhaps change the body
temperature of the subjects in the sample, but when it is given to the overall
population, it may result in a significant increase or decrease in the body
temperature of takers. The virologist, on the source of the data obtained from
the sample, will accept the Ho, thus causing a type II error.
In Scenario 2, the cost of a child car safety seat may not be greater
than ₱1 000, but it might be in the sample. In this case, a true Ho would be
rejected, resulting in a type I error. On the other hand, the cost of the car
safety seat might not be greater than ₱1 000 in the sample, but it is, in reality.
The customer, on the basis of evidence obtained from the sample, would
accept the null hypothesis, thus causing a type II error.

Let Us Practice

DIRECTION: Identify the parameter to be tested and state the null and
alternative hypotheses for each scenario.

1. An Obstetrician-Gynecologist believes that certain maternal milk will

increase the birth weight of babies. The average birth weight of a Filipino
newborn is 3 kg.
2. Mr. Velasco hypothesizes that the production cost of printing modules can
be decreased by using a Risograph instead of a Photocopier. The mean cost
per 500 sheets is ₱350.00.
3. A Grade-11 class adviser observed that the ages of her incoming students
vary from 15 to 21 years. The average age of incoming senior high school
students is 17 years.
4. A report states that the average monthly income of public high school
teachers is ₱26 000. A random sample of salaries of 100 public high school
teachers showed an average monthly salary of ₱27, 500.
5. A new Internet Service Provider (ISP) offers a cheaper alternative for an
internet connection. The average cost for the same speed as other existing
ISP is ₱1 699.00.

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 Let Us Practice More

DIRECTION: Fill in the diagram below to complete the steps in a Test of

Hypothesis. Find your answer inside the box at the bottom of the page.

Step 1.
(1)__________________________

Step 2.
(2)__________________________
(5)__________________________

Step 3. (6)__________________________
(3)__________________________

Step 4.
(4)__________________________

• Analyze the sample data.

• Formulate an analysis plan.
• Level of Significance/ Critical Value
• State the decision.
• State the hypotheses.
• Test Statistic/ Test Value

Let Us Remember

Summary

ü A Test of hypothesis is a process for evaluating claims about the

population.
ü Hypothesis is defined as a proposed explanation (may or may not be true)
for a phenomenon that can be used as a basis for further verification or
investigation.
ü The null hypothesis, represented by Ho, states that there is no difference
between a parameter and a statistic or that there is no difference between
two parameters.

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ü The alternative hypothesis, represented by Ha, states the existence of a
difference between a parameter and a statistic or states that there is a
difference between two parameters.

ü A one-tailed test is utilized when hypothesis involves direction.

ü A two-tailed test is used for a non-directional hypothesis.
ü The level of significance, usually designated by the alpha (a) symbol
pertains to the degree of confidence we require to reject the null
hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
ü The critical or rejection region is the range of values of the test statistic
that signifies that there is a significant difference and that the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
ü A type I error occurs if you reject the null hypothesis when it is true.
ü A type II error occurs if you do not reject the null hypothesis when it is
false.

Let Us Assess

DIRECTION: In your understanding, answer the following up to five (5)

sentences only.

1. What is the difference between null and alternative hypotheses? Provide an

example of each.
2. How are type I and type II errors related? Elaborate using an example.
3. Illustrate and discuss the process of testing a hypothesis.
4. What is the difference between a one-tailed and a two-tailed test?
5. What is the importance of the rejection and the acceptance region in stating
a decision in a test of hypothesis?

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 Let Us Enhance

DIRECTION: Create a scenario and state the null and alternative hypotheses.
Draw the figure and indicate the critical and noncritical region using a = 0.05.

Let Us Reflect
The important aspect that we need to realize is that when we carry out
a research, we are making an effort to know whether some change exists in
the population. Since in most cases, we won’t be able to collect data from the
entire population, so we use a sample instead. Using the data from the
sample, we test the hypothesis where it boils down to one simple idea and
that is, observed data can be predicted from a particular test statistic and the
error associated with it. We use the critical value to assess the calculated test
value. If it can explain a lot of the variation in the data collected then we
conclude that the effect we are looking for truly exists in the population. If the
probability of obtaining that test statistic is more than 5% (using a = 0.05),
then we conclude that the effect was too insignificant to be spotted.

The main role of testing a hypothesis is to help you come-up with a

decision through weighing the strength of proof. The researcher formulates a
specific hypothesis, evaluates data from the sample taken from the
population, and uses these data to decide whether they sustain the specific
hypothesis. If a hypothesis survives an attack on it and can explain a
particular phenomenon, it is then elevated to the status of a theory which is
the backbone of invention, innovation, and development. To summarize,
hypothesis leads to theory and theory leads to innovation.

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Let us Enhance Let Us More Practice
Answers may vary. 1. State the hypotheses.
2. Formulate an analysis plan.
3. Analyze the sample data.
Let us Assess.
4. State the decision.
1 to 5: Evaluate student’s answers
5. Level of significance/Critical value.
6. Test statistic/Test value
Let us Practice (random variables) Let us Try
Parameter Hypotheses
1. µ = 3kg Ho : µ = 3kg ; Ha > 3kg. RONALD
2. µ = ₱350 Ho : µ = ₱350 ; Ha < ₱350 FISHER
3. µ = 17 years Ho : µ = 17 years ; Ha ≠ 17 years
4. µ = ₱26 000 Ho : µ = ₱26 000 ; Ha ≠ ₱26 000
5. µ = ₱1 699 Ho : µ = ₱1 699 ; Ha < ₱1 699
Answer Key
 References

Bhakuni, Usha; Sir Ronald Fisher: Biography and Contributions to Statistics,

Retrieved from: https://study.com/academy/lesson/sir-ronaldfisher,
September 11, 2020
Bluman, Allan G.; Elementary Statistics (A Step by Step Approach), 8th Edition,
2012

Field, Andy; Discovering Statistics Using SPSS, 3rd Edition, 2009

Zorilla, Roland S.; Esller, Beda H.; Mendoza, Violeta C.; De Castro, Lori
Marseli L.; Abenilla, Gerry G.; Statistics and Probability for Senior High
School, 2016

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For inquiries or feedback, please write or call:

Department of Education – Davao City Division

E. Quirino Avenue, Davao City

Telephone: (082) 227 4762

Email Address: lrms.davaocity@deped.gov.ph