API Key:

AAPL Apple Inc

Update date: 2021-Jun-21 Price:
Average volume:

Operating country:
Industry:

Some important information

Override assumption cells? Yes

Reporting currency: USD
Number of outstanding shares 16,688
Low quartile 40%
High quartile 60%

Low
Long-term growth rate 3.0%

Hide all models? No

130.5 USD
67,667,370

United States
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Explanation
If 'Yes', we adjust yellow cells' values when the ticker changes

millions
Used in sensitivity analysis
Used in sensitivity analysis

High
5.0%

Choose 'Yes' (after starting the add-in once) if you just need financial data to bu
models. Please build your models in new sheets, DO NOT modify existing shee
ge & Peripherals

s' values when the ticker changes

he add-in once) if you just need financial data to build

odels in new sheets, DO NOT modify existing sheets
Balance Sheet
His
(USD in millions)
Sep-2016

Cash and cash equivalents 20,484

Trade accounts receivable 15,754
Short-term investments 46,671
Inventories 2,132
Prepaid expenses -
Other current assets 8,283
Current assets 93,324
Property Plant And Equipment 27,010
Initial value 61,245
Accumulated depreciation (34,235)
Long-term investments 170,430
Goodwill 5,414
Other intangible assets 3,206
Other long-term assets 22,302
Non-current assets 228,362
Total assets 321,686

Trade accounts payable 37,294

Short-term loans & liabilities 8,105
Accrued expenses 20,951
Current Portion of LT Debt/Capital Leases 3,500
Other current liabilities 9,156
Current liabilities 79,006
Long-term debts 75,427
Other liabilities 39,004
Total liabilities 193,437
Charter capital 31,251
Additional paid in capital -
Retained earnings 96,364
Treasury stock -
Other common equity adjustment 634
Common equity 128,249
Minority interest -
Total equity 128,249

Days sales outstanding (DSO) 27

Days payable outstanding (DPO) 104
Days inventory outstanding (DIO) 6
BS check -

Income Statement

His
(USD in millions)
Sep-2016
Revenue 215,639
Cost of goods sold (131,376)
Gross profits 84,263
Selling, G&A expenses (14,194)
Research & Development (10,045)
Net other income/(expense) (1,195)

Depreciation & amortisation 10,505

EBITDA 69,334
Net financial income/(expense) 2,543
Profit before tax 61,372

Corporate income tax (15,685)

Net profit after tax 45,687

Sales growth n/a

COGS growth n/a
Gross margin 39.08%
EBITDA margin 32.15%
SG&A/Revenue -6.58%
Net margin 21.19%
Effective tax rate 25.56%
 Historical
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020

20,289 25,913 48,844 38,016

17,874 23,186 22,926 16,120
53,892 40,388 51,713 52,927
4,855 3,956 4,106 4,061
- - - -
13,936 12,087 12,352 11,264
110,846 105,530 139,941 122,388
33,783 41,304 37,378 45,336
75,076 90,403 95,957 112,096
(41,293) (49,099) (58,579) (66,760)
194,714 170,799 105,341 100,887
- - - -
- - - -
35,976 48,092 55,856 55,277
264,473 260,195 198,575 201,500
375,319 365,725 338,516 323,888

44,242 55,888 46,236 42,296

11,977 11,964 5,980 4,996
- - - 1,436
6,496 8,784 10,260 8,797
38,099 39,293 43,242 47,867
100,814 115,929 105,718 105,392
97,207 93,735 91,807 98,667
43,251 48,914 50,503 54,490
241,272 258,578 248,028 258,549
35,867 40,201 45,174 50,779
- - - -
98,330 70,400 45,898 14,966
- - - -
 (150) (3,454) (584) (406)
134,047 107,147 90,488 65,339
- - - -
134,047 107,147 90,488 65,339

28 32 32 21
114 125 104 91
13 9 9 9
- - - -

Historical
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020
229,234 265,595 260,174 274,515
(141,048) (163,756) (161,782) (169,559)
88,186 101,839 98,392 104,956
(15,261) (16,705) (18,245) (19,916)
(11,581) (14,236) (16,217) (18,752)
(133) (441) 422 (87)

10,157 10,903 12,547 11,056

71,368 81,360 76,899 77,257
2,878 2,446 1,385 890
64,089 72,903 65,737 67,091

(15,738) (11,872) (10,481) (9,680)

48,351 61,031 55,256 57,411
Average
6% 16% -2% 6%
7% 16% -1% 5%
38.47% 38.34% 37.82% 38.23% 38.39%
31.13% 30.63% 29.56% 28.14% 30.32%
-6.66% -6.29% -7.01% -7.25% -6.76%
21.09% 22.98% 21.24% 20.91% 21.48%
24.56% 16.28% 15.94% 14.43% 19.35%
formula
formula
fill

fill
formula
fill
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Discounted Cash Flow 5Y Growth Exit

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 6% - 8.3% 7.13%
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5% 4.00%
Fair Price 84.84 - 432.97 140.97
Upside -35% - 231.9% 8.1%
 Upside
8.1%

Stock Price
130.46 USD

Fair Price
140.97 USD
0
Revenue & Expenses Forecast

Projectio
(USD in millions)
Sep-2020 Sep-2021 Sep-2022

Revenue 274,515 310,922 325,774

% Growth 6% 13% 5%

Cost of goods sold (169,559) (188,206) (193,252)

% of Revenue 62% 61% 59%

Selling, G&A expenses (19,916) (22,557) (23,635)

% of Revenue 7% 7% 7%

Research & Development (18,752) (21,239) (22,253)

% of Revenue 7% 7% 7%

Net interest incomes/expe 890 1,008 1,056

% of Revenue 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Other incomes/expenses (87) (99) (103)

% of Revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Tax expense (9,680) (13,000) (14,263)

Tax rate 14% 16% 16%

Net profit 57,411 66,830 73,324

% Margin 21% 21% 23%
Projections

Sep-2023 Sep-2024 Sep-2025

343,348 371,009 394,329

5% 8% 6%

(199,603) (211,370) (220,163)

58% 57% 56%

(24,910) (26,917) (28,608)

7% 7% 7%

(23,454) (25,343) (26,936)

7% 7% 7%

1,113 1,203 1,278

0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(109) (118) (125)

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

(15,696) (17,663) (19,505)

16% 16% 16%

80,689 90,801 100,270

24% 24% 25%
Change in Working Capital Forecast

(USD in millions except days)

Historical Avg Sep-2020

Days receivables 28
Trade receivables 16,120

Days payables 107

Trade payables (42,296)

Days inventory 9
Inventory 4,061

Net working capital (22,115)

Change in NWC

Capital Expenditure Plan

(USD in millions)

Capex
% of Revenue

5y Avg

Capex 11,260
% of Revenue 4.6%
Depreciation & Amortization Schedule

Average useful life (years): 5

(USD in millions)

For CAPEX in
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

Total depreciation & amortization

 Projections

Sep-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023 Sep-2024

28 27 26 27
24,266 24,421 24,232 27,651

107 101 99 102

(54,989) (53,300) (54,387) (59,216)

9 9 9 9
4,610 4,756 4,861 5,176

(26,113) (24,123) (25,294) (26,390)

(3,998) 1,989 (1,171) (1,096)

Projections

Sep-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023 Sep-2024

14,331 15,015 15,825 17,100

4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

Historical
Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019

12,734 12,451 13,313 10,495

5.9% 5.4% 5.0% 4.0%
 Projections
2021 2022 2023 2024

2,490
2,663 2,663
2,099 2,099 2,099
1,462 1,462 1,462 1,462
2,866 2,866 2,866 2,866
3,003 3,003 3,003
3,165 3,165
3,420
11,580 12,093 12,595 13,916
Sep-2025

27
28,926

101
(60,797)

9
5,390

(26,480)
(91)

Sep-2025

18,175
4.6%

Sep-2020

7,309
2.7%
2025

2,866
3,003
3,165
3,420
3,635
16,089
 -
-
-
-
-
2,490
5,325
6,297
5,847
14,331
15,015
15,825
17,100
18,175
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Category Low High

Long-term bond rate 1.42% 1.92%

Equity market risk premium 4.72% 5.72%
Adjusted beta 1.00 1.06

Additional risk adjustments 0.00% 0.50%

Cost of equity 6.15% 8.50%

Tax rate 16.15% 19.59%

Debt/Equity ratio 0.05 0.05
Cost of debt 4.00% 4.50%
After-tax WACC 6.01% 8.25%
Selected WACC 7.13%

Detailed calculations

Tax rate

Historical tax rate

Low tax rate

High tax rate
Selected tax rate

Cost of debt
Method 1 (effective interest rate)

(USD in millions)

Interest expense
 Total debt
Effective interest rate

Cost of debt 1
(average effective interest rates)

Method 2 (using synthetic ratings)

TTM EBIT
(/) TTM Interest expense
TTM Interest coverage ratio

Estimated default spread

Estimated bond rating

Cost of debt 2

Beta & Debt/Equity ratio

Unlevered beta
Relevered beta

Peer Tickers Company Name

AAPL Apple Inc
AMZN Amazon.com Inc
DELL Dell Technologies Inc
GOOGL Alphabet Inc
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co
HPQ HP Inc
MSFT Microsoft Corp
NTAP NetApp Inc
STX Seagate Technology PLC
WDC Western Digital Corp
 Source

https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page
Bloomberg adjustment

Company History
Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018
25.56% 24.56% 16.28%

16.15%
19.59%
16.28%

Historical
Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018
1,316 2,092 3,022
 87,032 115,680 114,483
2.40% 2.61%

2.70%

89,133
2,640
33.76

0.69% Source
AAA

2.11%

Low High
0.96 1.05
1.00 1.09

ny Name Debt/Equity ratio Beta Unlevered beta

0.05 1.20 1.15
.com Inc 0.03 1.14 1.12
hnologies Inc 0.64 0.94 0.62
0.01 1.01 1.00
Packard Enterprise Co 0.84 1.25 0.73
0.18 1.03 0.90
0.04 0.78 0.76
0.15 1.26 1.11
Technology PLC 0.21 1.18 1.00
Digital Corp 0.45 1.61 1.17
com/bonds
u/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html

y History
Sep-2019 Sep-2020
15.94% 14.43%

orical
Sep-2019 Sep-2020
3,423 3,002
 108,047 113,097
2.99% 2.78%

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/ratings.xls
Enterprise/Equity Value Calculations

(USD in millions)

Profit before tax

(-) Net interest income/expense
(+) Depreciation & Armortization
EBITDA
(-) Tax
(-): Capex
(-): Change in NWC
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Terminal value
WACC / Discount rate 7.13%
Long-term growth rate 4.00%
Timing of FCF (mid year)
Present value of FCF

Enterprise value 2,435,556

Projection period 308,179 12.7%
Terminal value 2,127,377 87.3%

(-) Current net debt 83,179

Equity value 2,352,377
(/) Outstanding shares 16,688
Fair price 140.97
Fair price (USD) 140.97

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC 8.25%
 Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Terminal value

Present value of FCF

Low
Enterprise value 1,498,954
Equity value 1,415,775
Fair price 84.84
Fair price (USD) 84.84

WACC 6.01%
Long-term growth rate 5.0%
Terminal value

Present value of FCF

High
Enterprise value 7,308,415
Equity value 7,225,236
Fair price 432.97
Fair price (USD) 432.97
 Projections
6M/FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
39,915 87,587 96,385 108,464
504 1,056 1,113 1,203
5,790 12,093 12,595 13,916
45,201 98,623 107,867 121,178
6,500 14,263 15,696 17,663
7,165 15,015 15,825 17,100
(1,999) 1,989 (1,171) (1,096)
33,534 67,356 77,517 87,510

0.25 1.00 2.00 3.00

32,962 62,872 67,540 71,171

Projections
6M/FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
32,876 62,220 66,146 68,979

33,049 63,538 68,978 73,457

 FY25 Terminal
119,775 108,208
1,278 1,198
16,089 14,200
134,586 121,210
19,505 17,621
18,175 17,034
(91) (786)
96,996 87,341
2,900,514

4.00 4.50
73,635 2,127,377

FY25 Terminal
 1,712,011

70,627 1,198,108

9,092,295

76,805 6,992,588
P/E

You can add/delete peer companies in cells B18:B27 (one at a time)

Range Selected
Trailing P/E multiples 22.12x - 28.74x 26.15x
Forward P/E multiples 22.86x - 26.22x 23.6x
Fair Price 91.55 - 131.43 107.0
Upside -29.8% - 0.7% -17.9%

(USD in millions except Fair price)

Ticker Company Name Market Cap (USD mil)

AAPL Apple Inc 2,177,068

AMZN Amazon.com Inc 1,758,526
DELL Dell Technologies Inc 75,277
GOOGL Alphabet Inc 1,609,881
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co 18,871
HPQ HP Inc 34,433
MSFT Microsoft Corp 1,953,916
NTAP NetApp Inc 17,399
SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc 1,711
STX Seagate Technology PLC 19,523

Industry median
(*) Profit after tax
Equity value

(/) Outstanding shares

Fair price
Fair price (USD)

EV / EBITDA

You can add/delete peer companies in cells B56:B65 (one at a time)

Range Selected
Trailing EV/EBITDA multiples 8.86x - 16.66x 11.1x
Forward EV/EBITDA multiples 14.78x - 20.18x 18.1x
Fair Price 48.14 - 104.34 77.3
Upside -63.1% - -20% -40.7%

(USD in millions except Fair price)

Ticker Company Name Market Cap (USD mil)

AAPL Apple Inc 2,177,068

AMZN Amazon.com Inc 1,758,526
DBD Diebold Nixdorf Inc 1,002
DELL Dell Technologies Inc 75,277
GOOGL Alphabet Inc 1,609,881
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co 18,871
HPQ HP Inc 34,433
KODK Eastman Kodak Co 688
MSFT Microsoft Corp 1,953,916
WDC Western Digital Corp 21,289

Industry median
(*) EBITDA
Enterprise value
(-) Net debt
Equity value

(/) Outstanding shares

Fair price
Fair price (USD)
 Upside
-17.9%

Stock Price
130.46 USD

Fair Price
107.05 USD

Sensitivity Analysis

Trailing P/E Forward P/E

28.5x 33.8x Industry multiple

65.6x 53.9x (*) Profit after tax
17.7x 23.5x Equity value
31.3x 30x
29.1x 16.9x (/) Outstanding shares
9.3x 10.9x Fair price
34.9x 35.9x Fair price (USD)
23.8x 23.7x
19.4x 15.4x
19.6x 21.9x

26.15x 23.6x
76,311 66,830
1,995,533 1,577,183

16,688 16,688
119.58 94.51
 119.58 94.51

Upside
-40.7%

Stock Price
130.46 USD

Fair Price
77.32 USD

Sensitivity Analysis

Trailing Forward
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA

22.6x 25x Industry multiple

29.8x 26.5x (*) EBITDA
6.6x 16.5x Enterprise value
9.5x 12.2x
25.7x 20.9x (-) Net debt
6.5x 6.5x Equity value
6.7x 8x
7.9x 10x (/) Outstanding shares
26.4x 26x Fair price
12.7x 19.7x Fair price (USD)

11.1x 18.1x
100,050 90,402
1,110,555 1,636,267
 83,179 83,179
1,027,376 1,553,088

16,688 16,688
61.57 93.07
61.57 93.07
nalysis

Low High
Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing P/E Forward P/E

22.12x 22.86x 28.74x 26.22x

76,311 66,830 76,311 66,830
1,687,999 1,527,729 2,193,178 1,752,277

16,688 16,688 16,688 16,688

101.15 91.55 131.43 105.00
101.15 91.55 131.43 105.00
nalysis
Low High
Trailing Forward Trailing Forward
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA

8.86x 14.78x 16.66x 20.18x

100,050 90,402 100,050 90,402
886,443 1,336,134 1,666,833 1,824,303

83,179 83,179 83,179 83,179

803,264 1,252,955 1,583,654 1,741,124

16,688 16,688 16,688 16,688

48.14 75.08 94.90 104.34
48.14 75.08 94.90 104.34
Earnings Power Value

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 6% - 8.3% 7.13%
Normalized Earnings 53,830 53,830
Fair Price 34.09 - 48.70 41.4
Upside -73.9% - -62.7% -68.3%

(USD in millions)
Sep-2016

Revenue 215,639
Sustainable revenue 266,761

Gross margin 39.08%

Sustainable gross margin 38.13%
Sustainable gross profit 101,720

Research & Development 10,045

Selling, G&A expense 14,194
Total operating expenses 24,239
% of Revenue 11.24%

(-) Maintenance operating expenses 34,690

Normalized EBIT 67,030

Tax rate 25.56%

Selected tax rate 19.35%

After-tax Normalized EBIT 54,057

Capex 12,734
Depreciation & Armortization 10,505
Difference 2,229
(-) 5y Average Difference 227

Normalized Earnings 53,830

Low High
Normalized Earnings 53,830 53,830
(/) WACC 8.25% 6.01%
Enterprise Value 652,114 895,880
(-) Net debt 83,179 83,179
Equity Value 568,935 812,701
(/) Outstanding shares 16,688 16,688
Fair price 34.09 48.70
Fair price (USD) 34.09 48.70
 Upside
-68.3%

Stock Price
130.46 USD

Fair Price
41.40 USD

Historical

Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020

229,234 265,595 260,174 274,515

38.47% 38.34% 37.82% 38.23%

11,581 14,236 16,217 18,752

15,261 16,705 18,245 19,916
26,842 30,941 34,462 38,668
11.71% 11.65% 13.25% 14.09%

24.56% 16.28% 15.94% 14.43%

12,451 13,313 10,495 7,309
10,157 10,903 12,547 11,056
2,294 2,410 (2,052) (3,747)
Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth

Range
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5%
Cost of Equity 6.1% - 8.5%
Fair Price 58.25 - 358.96
Upside -55.4% - 175.2%

(USD in millions except Fair price)

Low
Stable payout ratio 70%
(*) TTM Profit after tax 76,311
Adjusted dividends 53,418

Cost of equity 8.50%

Long-term growth rate 3.00%
Equity value 972,014

(/) Outstanding share 16,688

Fair price 58.25
Fair price (USD) 58.25

Discounted Dividend Model - Multi Stage

Range
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5%
Cost of Equity 6.1% - 8.5%
Fair Price 71.13 - 335.93
Upside -45.5% - 157.5%

Current payout ratio 18.64%

Stable payout ratio 90.00%

(USD in millions)
6M/FY21

Profit after tax 33,415

Payout ratio 19%

Estimated paid dividends 6,230

Cost of equity 7.32%

Long-term growth rate 4.00%

Timing of dividends (mid year) 0.25

Present value of dividends 6,121

Equity value 1,950,330

(/) Outstanding shares 16,688
Fair price 116.87
Fair price (USD) 116.87

Sensitivity Analysis

6M/FY21
Cost of equity 8.50%
Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Present value of dividends 6,104
Low
Equity value 1,187,065
Fair price 71.13
Low

Fair price (USD) 71.13

Cost of equity 6.15%

Long-term growth rate 5.0%
Present value of dividends 6,137
High
Equity value 5,605,940
Fair price 335.93
Fair price (USD) 335.93
 Upside
59.9%

Selected Stock Price

4.00% 130.46 USD
7.32%
208.6 Fair Price
59.9% 208.60 USD

High
90%
76,311
68,680

6.15%
5.00%
5,990,204

16,688
358.96
358.96

Upside
-10.4%

Selected Stock Price

4.00% 130.46 USD
7.32%
116.9 Fair Price
-10.4% 116.87 USD

Projections
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

73,324 80,689 90,801 100,270

33% 47% 61% 76%

24,134 38,074 55,804 75,933

1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

22,488 33,057 45,145 57,239

Projections
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

22,245 32,345 43,695 54,800

22,737 33,792 46,660 59,815
Terminal

90,587

90%
81,528

4.50
1,786,281

Terminal

1,027,877
5,436,799
Appendix

Year Historical Capex Most current reporting period

2012 9,402 Most current fiscal year end
2013 9,076 Number of months difference between 2
2014 9,813
2015 11,488 Is a financial institution?
2016 12,734
2017 12,451 Current net debt
2018 13,313
2019 10,495 Is reporting currency same as trading cur
2020 7,309
2021 n/a Exchange rate (USD/USD):
2022 n/a
2023 n/a
2024 n/a
2025 n/a
2026 n/a
2027 n/a
2028 n/a
2029 n/a AAPL
2030 n/a
orting period 2021-03-27
al year end 2020-09-26
s difference between 2 periods 6 (12 means they are the same period)

No
no no
83,179

ncy same as trading currency? Yes

USD/USD): 1
re the same period)

no
1