Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours.

He needs to
forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:

Week #Students

6 Weeks ago 83

5 Weeks ago 110

4 Weeks ago 95

3 Weeks ago 80

2 Weeks ago 65

Last Year 50

What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?\

35

Suppose a three-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are
as follows: wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.5. Demand observed in the previous three periods was as
follows: At-3 = 2,200, At-2 = 1,950, and At-1 = 2,050. What will be the demand forecast for period t?

2050

Putting forecast errors into perspective is best done using

MAPE.Correct
Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts?

Historical data is available on which to base the forecast.

Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called:

least squares estimation

Suppose a four-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are
as follows: wt-4 = 0.1, wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.4. Demand observed in the previous four
periods was as follows: At-4 = 380, At-3 = 410, At-2 = 390, and At-1 = 400. What will be the demand
forecast for period t?

397

Forecasts based on an average tend to exhibit less variability than the original data.

True

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

the duration of the repeating patterns.

Which forecast uses opinions gathered from consumer surveys, managers, sales staff, experts, and
executives?

judgmental

Averaging techniques are useful for:

smoothing out fluctuations in time series.

Forecasts can be made more accurate by: (choose all that apply)

Using a shorter time horizon.Using a shorter time horizon.

Aggregating to product families or locations.Aggregating to product families or locations.

Using multiple sources of information.Using multiple sources of information.

Gathering data closer to the customer.Gathering data closer to the customer.

many demand planners will make several forecasts under different scenarios and then apply their
business judgement to make a recommendation that is somewhere in between.

True

The best forecast tools:

Are easy to use.

Members of the sales force can have difficulty distinguishing between what customers would like to do
and what they actually will do.

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most
people enjoy participating in surveys.

False

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into
forecasting situations?

what customers are most likely to do in the future

Compute the center line and 3s control limits for forecast errors when the MSE is 62.

Upper Control Limit = 15.36

Center Line = 0.00

Lower Control Limit = -15.36

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is

a naive forecast.

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

qualitative and quantitative.

sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.

forecasts

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by:

Multiple Choice

MSE.

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into
forecasting situations?

what customers are most likely to do in the future

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

\time series analysis

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter
forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

True
The owner of Yummy Yummy Catering needs to ensure she has enough employees scheduled for the
upcoming week to assist with cooking. She needs to forecast the number of clients that will book her
services. She has the following historical data:

Week #Clients

6 Weeks ago 42

5 Weeks ago 19

4 Weeks ago 37

3 Weeks ago 56

2 Weeks ago 44

Last Week 31

What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

44 \

Which of the following is not an example of forecasts being used in a business organization?

how the organization should be structured

Data in a time-ordered sequence will not be in measurements of?

months

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.
True

Which of the following would tend to decrease forecast accuracy?

a change in the underlying causal system

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

Eliminate all assumptions.

The owner of Yummy Yummy Catering needs to ensure she has enough employees scheduled for the
upcoming week to assist with cooking. She needs to forecast the number of clients that will book her
services. She has the following historical data:

Week #Clients

6 Weeks ago 42

5 Weeks ago 19

4 Weeks ago 37

3 Weeks ago 56

2 Weeks ago 44

Last Week 31

What is the forecast for this week using weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2?
40

The best forecast is not necessarily the most accurate.

True

Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short-term forecasting?

increasing the flexibility of the production system

The owner of Yummy Yummy Catering needs to ensure she has enough employees scheduled for the
upcoming week to assist with cooking. She needs to forecast the number of clients that will book her
services. She has the following historical data:

Week #Clients

6 Weeks ago 42

5 Weeks ago 19
4 Weeks ago 37

3 Weeks ago 56

2 Weeks ago 44

Last Week 31

What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

44

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to
forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:

Week #Students

6 Weeks ago 83

5 Weeks ago 110

4 Weeks ago 95

3 Weeks ago 80

2 Weeks ago 65

Last Week 50

What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

65