BINOMIAL & POISSON DISTRIBUTIONS

1) On the SSM winding machine it was found that out of 1500 no of prepared dough has
1299defect free packages Calculate the 95% confidence limit for the efficiency for the machine?

Sol: here is given that n =1500

Xₒ = 1299
Then
Pₒ = Xₒ/n = 1299/1500 = ..866

That is efficiency is 86.6 %

Then confidence limit at 95% will give a = 1-2a = 1- 2*.95 = .025

Then confidence limit become

Pₒ ±uₐ √(P`(1-P`)/n)

Hence .866± 1.96√ (.000059) =.866+.0172 = (.883, .8488)

Or 88.3% - 84.8%

2) A new sizing paste developed was considered to be more effective than the normally used sizing
paste for 100% cotton fabric. This paste was applied on some of the randomly chosen specimen of
fabric. Considering a total of 10 specimens. 10 people were given the fabric and were asked about
the preference of the sized fabric. 6 out of 10 claimed that the new size pasted fabric as a better one.
Can v say new size paste is better than older one.

Sol: According to question if new sized fabric used by all 10 people was accepted then confidence to
say new size is better but as v see just 6 out of 10 accept new size fabric we are not fairly confident
about acceptance.
Accordingly there can be two preferences that is success or failure.

The probability of success = the probability of failure= 0.5

Given that n=10,

Therefore Pr(x>6) =Pr(x=6) + Pr(x=7) + Pr(x=8) + Pr(x=9) +Pr(x=10)

Following the binomial distribution pattern we get the total probability(x=6)= 0.2050.
Probability(x=7) =0.1171
Probability(x=8) =0.339
Probability(x=9) =0.009
Probability(x=10) =0.0010
Total Pr= 0.3716.
%age 0f 37.16 people are in favour and rest are not. Thus we cannot infer that the new paste is
better.

3) A fabric was dyed by new dye rather than conventional standard dye. The dye samples were given
to 10 assessors and are asked to state which fabric they preferred. Seven out of 10 preferred the new
process fabric. Is this sufficient answer to justify the clain that new process is better than old.

Sol:
Since there are only 2 dyed fabrics. Thus probability of selecting one is ½ and the other is
also same.
So we can get the probability of P(x>7)
 P(x>7) (p=.5,n=10)=P(x=7 or x=8 or x=9 or x=10)
=P(x=7/p=.5,n=10)+….+P(x=10/p=.5,n=10)
=0.1172+0.044+0.0098+0.001
=0.1720>5%
So chance cause factor is high.
Thus particular exp result obtained is seen to be not at all usual and could easily be obtained by
chance. Thus new treatment is better than standard is not true.

4) An industry devlop a new auxiliary chemicals, that considers would be more effective than
standard treatment for a particular type of fabric. To test his claim he carried out an experimental.
The treatment were applied to random chosen fabric specimen of the fabric , were then submitted to
ten assessoris, who asked to Which fabric they preferred. Seven out of ten assesories preferred the
fabric treatment.

Sol. N = 10; P = 0.5;

Probabilities of getting 10 assesories
Pr (X > 7)= Pr (x= 7) + Pr(X= 8) + Pr (X= 8) + Pr (x= 9) + Pr (x= 10);
Pr (x>7) = 0.1172 + 0.0440 + 0.0098 + 0.0016
= 0.1720
So that the probabilities of getting seven or more prefer will be high.

5) A manufacture supplies large lots of fabrics. When a lot is ready to a dispatch to a customer
after dye, it is inspected for defectives. It is too difficult to inspect every sample from the lots. Should
be randomly chosen from each lots & inspected. & that if 1 or more defective are found in fabric
sample the lots should be rejected, but part experience has shown that the manufacturing process
usually produce 0.7 %defective & this is considerable acceptance.

Sol. N =10, p= 0.007(probabilities defective is constant & equal to 0.007)

IF X denotes the No. of defective in a sample
We have
Pr (X <1) = Pr(X=0)
= 10! / ( 0! *10! ) * (0.007)0 * (0.993)10 = (0.993)10
Pr(X >1 ) = 1 – Pr (x<1)
= 1-0.9321
= 0.0678
This calculation show that, if the process always produce to containing the satisfactory level of 0.7%
defectives, then about 6% of all such satisfactory lot whould be rejected by the plan since the
proportion is right decision.

6) A company makes rain coat & claim that 95% of its coat will pass a standard proof test. fifty
coats are chosen at random from the production line. assuming that the firm claim is correct find
The probability that more than one coat will fail the test
The probability that sis or more coats will fail the test.

Sol. N =50, P’ =0.05( probability of passing test)

P= 1-0.95 = 0.05
Pr (x>1) = 1- Pr(x<=1)
= 1- (Pr(x=0) – pr(x=1))
=1-0.0769-0.2025
 =0.7206
So probability that more then one coat, Pr (x>1) = 0.7206.

Pr(x>=6)= 1- Pr(x<6)
= 1 – [Pr(x=0) + Pr(X=1) + Pr(X=2) + Pr(X=3) + Pr(X=4) + Pr(X=5) ]
= 1- [0.0769 + 0.2025 + 0.2611 + 0.2199 +0.1360 +0.0658]
= 1 -0.9622
= 0.038
So probability that more than six coat will fail is 0.038.

7) A fabric was dyed by new dye rather than conventional standard dye. The dye samples were given
to 10 assessors and are asked to state which fabric they preferred. Seven out of 10 preferred the new
process fabric. Is this sufficient answer to justify the claim that new process is better than old.
Sol: Since there are only 2 dyed fabrics. Thus probability of selecting one is ½ and the other is also
same.
So we can get the probability of P(x>7)
P(x>7) (p=.5,n=10)=P(x=7 or x=8 or x=9 or x=10)
=P(x=7/p=.5,n=10)+….+P(x=10/p=.5,n=10)
=0.1172+0.044+0.0098+0.001
=0.1720>5%
So chance cause factor is high.
Thus particular exp result obtained is seen to be not at all usual and could easily be obtained by
chance. Thus new treatment is better than standard is not true.

8) A ring frame is known to produce about 6% nonconforming items. If a random sample of 20

bobbins is chosen, what is the probability of finding between 10 and 12 nonconforming items?
Solution: n=20, p=.06, we have
P (10≤ X≤12) = P(X=10) + P(X=11) + P(X=12)
= .340

9) In an exactly normal, 10 % of the yarn fault (thick& thin places) comes under 4 mm length and
90% of the fault comes under 20 mm length. What are the mean and standard deviation of the
distribution?
Ans:
Let assume x denote length of yarn in mm.
Mean=u, s.d = S.
P(x<4) =0.10, p(x<20) =0.90
For x =4, z = (4-u)/S =-z1
For x =20, z = (20-u)/S=z2
So, p(z< -z1) =0.10
& p(z< z2) =0.90

Now, p(0<z<z2) =0.40………,z2= 1.28(from table)

P (z<-z1) =0.10
Then p (z>z1) =0.10
P (0<z<z1)=0.40 ……….,z1=1.28
From equation A& B...
U=12mm & S=6.25.
9) A ring frame is known to produce about 6% nonconforming items. If a random sample of 20
bobbins is chosen, what is the probability of finding between 10 and 12 nonconforming items?
Solution: n=20, p=.06, we have
P (10≤ X≤12) = P(X=10) + P(X=11) + P(X=12)
= .340

10) It has been found that 2% of the batches produced by a certain machine are defective. What is
the probability that in a shipment of 400 such batches (A) 3% or more will prove defective?
Solution: (3% of 400) = 12 defective tools on a continuous basis 12 or more tools means 11.5 or
more
Mean = (2% of 400) =8 and σ = √npq = √ (400) (.02) (.98) = 2.8
Z= 11.5-8/2.8 = 1.25
Required probability is 0.1056
Yes it is defective

11) In a random sample of 500 shirts was taken from the large consignment and 60 were found to be
defective .obtained the 985 confidence limits for the %age of defective shirt in the consignment.

Ans-
P= proportion of defective shirts in the sample= 60/500=0.12
q=(1-p)=0.88
Z (at 98% c.l,table)=2.33

So, at 98% confidence limits for population proportion are:

= p-2.33(0.12*0.88/500)^.5 , p+2.33(0.12*0.88/500)^.5
= (.08615, 0.15385)

Hence, at 98%confidance limits for the %age of defective shirts in the consignment are(.08615,
0.15385).

12) A sample of 100 t-shirt is taken at random from a batch known to contain 5% defective. What is
the probability that sample contains exactly six defective t-shirts?

Solution- Here n=100

Let x denotes number of defective samples
P= 0.05 , q= 0.95
μ=np =5
σ=√npq = 2.18
Applying binomial distribution
p(x=6)=100C6 * (0.5)^6 * (0.95)^94= 0.15
Here probability of getting exactly 6 defective t-shirts is 0.15.

13) A company makes rain coats and claims that 95% of its coats will pass a standard waterproof test.
Fifty coats are chosen at random from the production line. Assuming that the firm’s claim is correct
find
(a) The probability that more than one coat will fail the test.
(b) The probability that six or more coats will fail the test.
Solution:
N=50, P’= 0.95 (probability of passing the test)
P= 1-0.95= 0.05
(a) Pr (X>1) = 1- Pr (X<=1)
 = 1- [Pr (X=0) + Pr (X=1)]
= 1- Pr (X=0) –Pr(X=1)
= 1- [(50C0) (0.95^50)]- [(50C1)(0.95^49)(0.05)]
= 1- 0.0769- 0.2025
=1- 0.2794
= 0.7206
So probability that more than one coat will fail is 0.7206.
(b) Pr (X>=6) = 1- Pr (X<6)
= 1- [Pr (X=0) + Pr (X=1) + Pr(X=2) + Pr(X=3) + Pr (X=4) + Pr (X=5)]
= 1- Pr (X=0) – Pr(X=1) - Pr(X=2) - Pr(X=3) - Pr (X=4) - Pr (X=5)
= 1- 0.0769- 0.2025- 0.2611- 0.2199- 0.1360- 0.0658
= 1- 0.9622
= 0.038

14) A chemist developed a new softening agent N that he considered would be more effective than
the standard treatments for a particular type of fabric. To test his claim he carried out an experiment.
The treatments were applied to separate randomly chosen specimens of the fabric and the treated
specimens were then submitted to each of ten assessors preferred the fabric treated by the new
process. Is this sufficient evidence to justify the claim that the new treatment is better than the
standard?

Solution:
Since the assessors have only 2 choices. So, the probability (P) = {1/2} = 0.5
And, n= 10
Now,
Pr(X>7) = Pr(X=7 or X=8 or X=9 or X=10)
= [{(10C7)*(0.5^10)} + {(10C8)*(0.5^10)} + {(10C9)*(0.5^10)} + {(10C10)*(0.5^10)}]
= (0.5^10) *[120+45+10+1]
= 0.1720
So, the possibility of getting seven or more is quite high. Hence, this is the sufficient evidence to
justify the claim that the new treatment is better than the standard.

15) A garment manufacturing firm claims that its brand A of the garment outsells its brand B by 8%.If
it is found that 42 out of 200 consumers prefer brand A and 18 out of another 100 consumer prefer
brand B. Test whether the 8% difference is valid claim at 0.5% level of significance.

Sol. Here given, n1=200, n2= 100, x1=42, x2= 18.

P1=x1/n1=42/200=0.21
P2=x2/n2=18/100=.18
Here null hypothesis, H0, p1-p2=0.08i.e. 8% difference in sale of two brand A & B of garment is
invalid claim.
Alternate hypothesis H1, p1-p2≠0.08 (two tail test)
Under H0 z= (p1-p2)-(P1-P2)/√^p^q (1/n1+1/n2)
^p= (n1p1+n2p2)/ (n1+n2) = 0.20
^q= 0.80
Therefore z= (0.21-018)-0.08/√ (0.2*0.8) (1/200+1/100) =-1.02
Table value of z at 5% level of significance= 1.96
Since 1.02<1.96
Hence it is not significance at 5%level of significance.
16) On the SSM winding machine it was found that out of 1500 no of prepared dough has
1299defect free packages Calculate the 95% confidence limit for the efficiency for the machine?

Sol : here is is given that n =1500

X= 1299 , P = X /n = 1299/1500 = ..866
Efficiency is 86.6 %
(confidence limit is 95%) a = 1-2a = 1- 2*.95 = .025

THUS confidence limit becomes

P ±u√(P`(1-P`)/n)
Hence .866± 1.96√ (.000059) =.866+.0172 = (.883, .8488)
Or 88.3% - 84.8%

17) A company makes rain coats and claims that 95% of its coats will pass a standard waterproof test.
Fifty coats are chosen at random from the production line. Assuming that the firm’s claim is correct
find
(a) The probability that more than one coat will fail the test.
(b) The probability that six or more coats will fail the test.

Solution: N=50, P’= 0.95 (probability of passing the test)

P= 1-0.95= 0.05
(a) Pr (X>1) = 1- Pr (X<=1)
= 1- [Pr (X=0) + Pr (X=1)]
= 1- Pr (X=0) –Pr(X=1)
= 1- [(50C0) (0.95^50)]- [(50C1)(0.95^49)(0.05)]
= 1- 0.0769- 0.2025
=1- 0.2794
= 0.7206
So probability that more than one coat will fail is 0.7206.
(b) Pr (X>=6) = 1- Pr (X<6)
= 1- [Pr (X=0) + Pr (X=1) + Pr(X=2) + Pr(X=3) + Pr (X=4) + Pr (X=5)]
= 1- Pr (X=0) – Pr(X=1) - Pr(X=2) - Pr(X=3) - Pr (X=4) - Pr (X=5)
= 1- 0.0769- 0.2025- 0.2611- 0.2199- 0.1360- 0.0658

= 1- 0.9622
= 0.038
The height of large sample of bobbins were measured and μ=96 and σ=8.
It is required to estimate the proportion of bobbins with height greater than 104cm.
Ans. U=(x-µ)/σ
Pr(x>X) =Pr (u>U) =Pr (u>(x-µ)/σ)
Hence Pr(x>104) =Pr (u> (104-96)/8) =Pr (u>1) =0.1587
Thus, 16% of bobbins have height greater than 104cm.

18) A garment manufacturing firm claims that its brand A of the garment outsells its brand B by 8%.If
it is found that 42 out of 200 consumers prefer brand A and 18 out of another 100 consumer prefer
brand B. Test whether the 8% difference is valid claim at 0.5% level of significance.

Sol. Here given, n1=200, n2= 100, x1=42, x2= 18.

P1=x1/n1=42/200=0.21
P2=x2/n2=18/100=.18
Here null hypothesis, H0, p1-p2=0.08i.e. 8% difference in sale of two brand A & B of garment is
invalid claim.
Alternate hypothesis H1, p1-p2≠0.08 (two tail test)
Under H0 z= (p1-p2)-(P1-P2)/√^p^q (1/n1+1/n2)
^p= (n1p1+n2p2)/ (n1+n2) = 0.20
^q= 0.80
Therefore z= (0.21-018)-0.08/√ (0.2*0.8) (1/200+1/100) =-1.02
Table value of z at 5% level of significance= 1.96
Since 1.02<1.96
Hence it is not significance at 5%level of significance.

19) Industry modulus of 5000 Kg. of dyed yarn in lot of dyed yarn packages daily. If 2% of dyed yarn
packages are sub standard, then estimate no. of packages that are expected to be spoiled in daily
production at 95% confidence
Sol
p = .02q = .98
SE= √pq/n
= √.2 * .98/12
= 0.1278

95% confidence limit for percentage defective yarn package is given by

P ± 1.96 * SE
= .02 ± 1.96 * .01278
= .02 ± .125
Implies .225 to .174
The weight of yarn that is expected to be spoiled daily will be 5000 * .125
= 1125 Kg.

And 5000 * 174

= 870 Kg.
20) A manufacturing company produces knitted sports goods. It is found that 2% of the goods
produced are defective. What is the probability that in a shipment of 100 such goods 4% or more will
prove to be defective.

Ans- mean = p=0.02

S.D = (pq/n)^1/2 = [(.02)(0.98)/100]^1/2
= 0.14/10 = 0.014
Using the correction for discrete variables
1/2N = 1/200=0.005
(0.04-0.005)std. Units = (0.04-0.005-0.02)/0.014
= 1.25
Required probability = {area under normal curve to right of z=1.25}
= 0.1056
i.e= 10.56%

21) 20 Shirts were examined for defects. The frequency of the no. of shirts with the given no. of
defects/shirt was as follows:

No. of defects Frequency

0 4
1 3
2 5
3 2
4 4
5 1
6 1

22) What is the probability of finding a shirt chosen at random which contains 3 or more defects?
Solution
μ
( 0∗4 ) + ( 1∗3 ) + ( 3∗2 )+ ( 4∗4 ) + ( 5∗1 ) +(6∗1)
Average no. of defects , =
4 +3+5+2+ 4+1+1
46
= = 2.3
20
Probability = P(x>=3)
= 1- ( (P(0) + P(1) + P(2) )
= 0.40396

23) A 100 samples of a garment consignment from any manufacturing unit be inspected by a
customer that are drawn random from the consignment and not more than 10 pieces will found
defectives. Manufacturer produces usually 8% defectives. What is the probability that garment
consignment containing this proportion of defectives will be rejected by the customer?

Ans. Here n = 100, p = .08

µ = np = 100x.08 = 8
ơ = √ np(1−p) = √ 8 x .92 = 2.71
probability of rejection
BPr(x ≥11 ) = nPr(x ≥10.5 )
10.5−¿
= nP r{u 8)/2.71}
≥¿

0.93
= nP r{u }
≥¿
= 0.1788 + 0.1736
= 0.1762
i.e.17.62% consignment should be rejected.

24) A fabric manufacturer believes that proportion of orders for raw material arriving late is p=0.60.If
the random sample of 10 orders shows that 3 or less arrived late, the hypothesis that p=0.6 should
be rejected in favor of alternating hypothesis p<0.6
(a) Find the probability of type 1 error if p=0.6.
(b) Find the probability of type 2 error for the alternative hypothesis p=0.3
Ans. n= 10, p=0.6, therefore µ = np = 6, ơ = √ np(1−p) = 2.4
(a)Type I error means rejection i.e. nP r(x ≥ 4 ) = nPr(x ≥3.5 )
= nP r(u ≥(3.5−6)/2.4
= nP r(u ≥−1.04 )
=1- nP r(u ≥1.04 )
=1-0.1492= 0.851

i.e.type I error is 85.1%

(b) if p=0.3 then µ =3 then type II error
nPr(x ≥3.5 ) = nPr(u ≥(3.5−3) /2.4 =0.208
i.e.type II error at p=0.3 is 20.8%
25) A sample of 100 bobbins at random is taken at random from a batch known to contain 40%
defectives. What is the probability that the sample contains:
At least 44 defectives
Exactly 44 defectives

Solution: p/(1-p)= 0.4/0.6 = 0.67

(1-p) / p = 0.6/ 04 = 1.5
n should be greater than 9 max.[ p/ (1-p) and (1-p)/p ] i.e. 9 x 1.5 = 13.5 ( approx. 14 )
Since n = 100, is large ( as compared to 14 ), we may use the normal distribution as an approximation
to the binomial distribution.

Let X denote the no.of defectives with parameters,

µ = np = 100 ( 0.4 ) = 40
σ = √npq = √ ( 100 x 0.4 x 0.6) = 4.9

It should be noted that the continuous normal distribution is approximating the discrete binomial
distribution so that the continuity correction has to be taken into account in determining the various
probabilities. So finding the probability of atleast 44 defectives in a sample of 100 items requires
finding the area under the normal curve from 43.5 to 100.5.

Therefore, the probability of atleast 44 defectives is:

P (43.5 < X < 100.5) = P [(43.5-40)/ 4.9 < Z < (100.5-40)/4.9]
= P ( 0.7143 < Z < 12.347 )
= P ( 0 < Z < 12.347 ) – P ( 0 < Z < 0.7143 )
= 0.5 – 0.2624 = 0.2376

The probability of exactly 44 defectives is :

P ( X = 44 ) = P ( 43.5 < X < 44.5 )
= P [(43.5-40)/ 4.9 < Z < (44.5-40)/ 4.9 ]
= P ( 0.7143 < Z < 0.9184 )
= P ( 0 < Z < 0.9184 ) – P ( 0 < Z < 0.7143 )
= 0.3208 – 0.2624 = 0.0584

27) Suppose X1, X2and X3 represent the thickness in micrometers of a substrate, an active layer, and a
coating layer of a chemical product. Assume that X1, X2and X3 are independent and normally
distributed with µ1 = 10000, µ2 = 1000, µ3 = 80, σ1 = 250, σ 2 = 20 and σ3 = 4 respectively. The specifications
for the thickness of the substrate, active layer, and coating layer are 9200<x 1<10800, 950<x2<1050
and 75<x3<85 respectively.
What proportion of chemical products meets all thickness specifications? Which one of the three
thicknesses has the least probability of meeting specifications?

SOLUTION
The requested probability is,
Because the random variables are independent,
P(9200<X1<10800, 950<X2<1050, 75<X3<85) = P(9200<X1<10800) P(950<X2<1050) P(75<X3<85)

After standardizing, the above equals

P(-3.2<Z<3.2)P(-2.5<Z<2.5)P(-1.25<Z<1.25)
where Z is a standard normal random variable. From the table of the standard normal distribution,
the above equals
(0.99862)(0.98758)(0.78870) =0.7778
The thickness of the coating layer has the least probability of meeting specifications.
Consequently, a priority should be to reduce variability in this part of the process.

28) Two boxes containing equal number of buttons of same design but different pattern of colours
i.e. one with black base and white dots and other vice versa, fell accidently and got mixed up. They
were not sorted and the mixture was used on a consignment of 800 ladies shirts with black and
white stripes. Each shirt had 4 buttons.
After the consignment was ready,the analysis revealed the following distribution of buttons:

no. of buttons with white

base and black dots (type1) 0 1 2 3 4
no.of buttons with black
base and white dots(type2) 4 3 2 1 0

no. of shirts 32 178 290 236 64

Is this result consistent with the hypothesis that both type 1 buttons are equally probable to be used.

Sol.) Null hypothesis = data are consistent with the hypothesis of equal probability for both types of
buttons.
Under null hypothesis,
1
p= probability of type 1 buttons = =q
2
1 2 1 1 4
p(r)= probability of ‘r’ type 1 buttons in a shirt with 4 buttons= 4Cr( )( ¿ 4-r
= 4Cr( )
2 2 2
the frequency of r type 1 buttons is given by:
1 4
f(r) = N.p(r) = 800 x 4Cr( ) = 50 x 4Cr ; r= 0,1,2,3,4 ………(i)
2
Substituting r= 0,1,2,3,4 successively in (i), we get the expected frequencies as follows:
f(0) = 50 x 1 = 50 , f(1)=50 x 4C1 = 200 , f(2)= 50 x 4C2 =300 , f(3) = 50 x 4C3 = 200 , f(4)=50 x 4C4=50

29) A textile fiber manufacturer is investigating a new drapery yarn, which the company claims has a
mean thread elongation of 12 kilograms with a standard deviation of 0.5 kilograms. The company
wishes to test the hypothesisH0: µ = 12 against H1: µ < 12, using a random sample of n = 16
specimens.
(a)What is the type I error probability if the critical region is defined as x < 11.5 kilograms?
(b) Find β for the case where the true mean elongation is 11.25 kilograms.

SOLUTION
α = P( X≤11.5 | µ = 12) = P((
X -µ)/ (σ/ n )≤(11.5-12)/0.5 16 ) = P(Z≤-4) = 1- P(Z≤4)
√ √
= 1-1 = 0
The probability of rejecting the null, when the null is true, is approximately 0 with a sample size of 16

β = P(
X >11.5 | µ = 11.25) = P((
X -µ)/ (σ/ √n )>(11.5-11.25)/0.5 √ 16 ) = P(Z>2) = 1 -
P(Z≤2)
= 1− 0.97725 = 0.02275
The probability of accepting the null hypothesis when it is false is 0.02275.

29) The probability of a yarn manufactured by a certain firm being defective is 0.015. What is the
probability that there is no defective yarn in a batch of 100?

Answer: let X be the number of defective yarns in 100. The desired

Probability is P(X=0) = nC0 x (0.015)0 x (1-.015)100-0
= 0.2206
Since n is large and p is small in this case, the Poisson approximation is
Appropriate and we obtain

P(x=0) = 1.50 x e-1.5 / 0!

This is very close to the exact answer.

30) An industry is producing 50, 000 garments daily. From a sample of 500 garments, 2% were found
to be of sub-standard quality. Estimate the no. of garments that can be reasonably expected to be
spoiled in the daily production and assign limits at 95% level of confidence.

Answer : p= 0.02, q = 0.98

S.E. P = √(pq/n) = √( .02 x 0.98) / 500 = 0.0063
95% confidence limits for percentage of defective garments is given by
= p± 1.96 S.E.
= 0.02 ± 1.96 (0.0063)
= 0.02 ± 0.0123
= 0.0073 to 0.0323
The no. of garments that can be reasonably expected to be spoiled in daily production is:
50,000 x 0.0077 = 385 and
50,000 x 0.0323 = 1615

31) The count of yarn has a mean value of 30s and standard deviation was found to 1.8. Find the
proportion of yarn having count between 29s to 31s.

Ans:-
Proportion of count between 31s to 29s can be expressed as
=P(U<31) - P(U<29)

P(31−30) P( 1)
P(U<31) = =
8 8

P(29−30) P(−1)
P(U<29) = =
8 8

P(U<31) - P(U<29) = P (P(U<.55) - P(U<-.55)

= 0.7088- .291 = 0.42
Proportion of count between 31s to 29s = 42%

32) The probability of a yarn manufactured by a certain firm being defective is 0.015. What is the
probability that there is no defective yarn in a batch of 100?
Answer: let X be the number of defective yarns in 100. The desired
Probability is P(X=0) = nC0 x (0.015)0 x (1-.015)100-0
= 0.2206
Since n is large and p is small in this case, the Poisson approximation is
Appropriate and we obtain

P(x=0) = 1.50 x e-1.5 / 0!

This is very close to the exact answer.

33) If 20% of the towels produced by a machine are defective, determine the probability that, out of
4 towels chosen at random, (a) 1, (b) 0 and (c) at most 2 towels will be defective?
Ans.
The probability of defective towels is p = 0.2 and probability of non defective towels is
q = (1-p) = 0.8.

Probability (1 defective towels) = 4P1 (0.2)1 (0.8)3 = 0.4096

Probability (0 defective towels) = 4P0 (0.2)0 (0.8)4 = 0.4096
Probability ( 2 defective towels) = 4P2 (0.2)2 (0.8)2 = 0.1536
Thus,
Pr (at most 2 defective towels) = Pr(1 defective towel) + Pr (0 defective towel) + Pr (2 defective
towels) = 0.4096 + 0.4096 + 0.1536 = 0.9728.

35) Finishing department of a chemical processing unit used certain method of finishing, recently
planned to use a new method. An experiment was carried out . 7 jury members out of 10 preferred
the fabric treated with new method rather than conventional one. Is this sufficient evidence to justify
the claim that new treatment is better than conventional one?

Solution: n=10, p= 0.5

Pr ( x=7∨x=8∨x=9∨x=10 )
Pr (x ≥7) = , n ( 10 )
p ( .5 )
x=10/ p ( .5 ) n(10)
= Pr ( x=7 / p ( .5 ) n ( 10 ) )+¿ ……………………….+
pr ¿
Pr ( x=7 ) =0.1172
Pr ( x=8 ) =0.0440
Pr ( x=9 ) =0.0098
Pr ( x=10 )=0.0010
∴ Pr ( x ≥ 7 )=0.1172+0.0440+0.0098+ 0.0010=0.172
= 17.2%

The probability of getting seven or more preferences is purely by chance and thus quite high.
The Particular experimental result obtained is thus seen to be not at all unusual or could easily be
obtained by chance.

36) BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION :

What proportion of the parts will be above 103.3 mm? if the length of a machine part is known to
have a normal distribution with a mean of 101 mm and standard deviation is 1.8.

Soln. :
 Let x denote the length of the part. The parameter values for the normal distribution are
µ=101 and σ= 1.8 . the required probability :
The standard value of 103.3 corresponds to
Z1 = (x1-µ)/σ
=(103.3 – 101 )/ 1.8 = 1.27
Thus
P(X>1.27) = P(Z1>.27) from the table P(z≤1.27) = .9505
P(z>1.27) = 1- P(z≤1.27) = .0495
The desired probability P(x>103.3) is 4.95%

37) It is estimated that the average number of defects in a 150m 2 of fabric roll is 10. What is the
probability of finding no more than 2 defects and no defects in 50m 2 of fabric?
Solution –
Average number of defects in 50m2 of fabric= 10/150×50
i.e., λ = 3.3
Probability of finding no more than 2 defects,
P (x≤2) = P(x=0)+P(x=1)+P(x=2)
= e -3.33.30/0! + e-3.33.31/1! + e-3.33.32/2!
= .36
Probability of finding no defects,
P(x=0) = e -3.33.30/0!
= 0.037

38) A manufacturer who produces ladies garments finds that 0.1% of the garments are defective. The
garments are packed in boxes containing 500 ladies garments. Using poisson distribution , find how
many boxes will contain at least two defectives.

Soln:- N=100, n=500

P=prob. Of defective garments= 0.001
λ =np =500 x 0.001=0.5
let, X=no. of defective garments in a box of 500.
By poisson dist. Law , the prob. Of x defective garments in a box given by
P(X=x) = e-0.5(0.5)x } /x! = 0.6065 x (0.5)2/ x! ,where , x=0,1,2,3…….
Therefore , frequency(f) of boxes containing x defective garments,
f (x)= N.P(X=x) =100x0.065x(0.5) 2/x!
therefore, no. of boxes containing at least 2 defective garments
= 100[p(X > 2)]
=100[1-p(X=0)- p(X=1)]
=100[1-0.6065-0.6065x0.5]
=100x0.09025
=9.

39) When 200 samples from 5000 garments were taken & tested and the distribution of fabric
defects was found to be as shown in the first and second columns of the table below. Fit a poisson
distribution to the frequency distribution of defects. Estimate the total cost for correcting all the
garments by using the information given in the first and third columns of the table below:

No. of defects in a sample Frequency Cost of detection and

correction per sample (Rs)
0 113 1.00
1 62 1.50
 2 20 2.50
3 3 3.00
4 1 3.50
5 1 4.00
SOLUTION:
FITTING OF POISSON DISTRIBUTION
No. of defects in a sample Frequency fX
X f
0 113 0
1 62 62
2 20 40
3 3 9
4 1 4
5 1 5
N=200 ∑fX = 120

X̄ = ∑fX/N = 120/200 = 0.6

This is the mean of the poisson distribution i.e. m.
P3 = ℮m = 2.7183-6 =0.5488
N ( P0 ) = 200*0.5488 = 109.76
N ( P1 ) = N ( P0 )*m = 109.76*0.6 = 65.856
N ( P2 ) = N ( P1 )*(m/2) = 65.856*(0.6/2) = 19.756
N ( P3 ) = N ( P2 )*(m/3) = 19.757*(0.6/3) = 3-951
N ( P4 ) = N ( P3 )*(m/4 )= -3.951*(0.6/4) = 0.5927
N ( P5 ) = N ( P4 )*(m/5) = 0.5927*(0.6/5) = 0.0711
The frequencies of the Poisson distribution are:

X 0 1 2 3 4 5

f 109.8 65.9 19.8 4.0 0.6 0.07

The total cost of correcting all the garments will be given by:

No. of defects in a Rate per sample No. of pages fX

sample X F
0 1.00 109.80 109.80
1 1.50 65.90 98.85
2 2.50 19.80 49.50
3 3.00 4.00 12.00
4 3.50 0.60 2.10
5 4.00 0.07 0.28
∑fX = 272.53

Hence the total cost shall be Rs. 272.53.

40) The number of defects per unit in a sample of 330 units of a particular fabric was found as
follows:
No of defects: 0 1 2 3 4

Number of units: 214 92 20 3 1

Fit a poisson distribution to the data and test for goodness of fit.
Solution. The expected frequency have been calculated by poisson distribution method. We now
apply the test of goodness of fit. Let us take the hypothesis that there is no significant difference
between observed frequencies and the frequencies obtained by fitting poisson distribution.

O E (O-E)2 (O-E)2/E
214 212.75 1.5625 0.0073
92 93.4 1.96 0.0210
20 }24 20.5 } 23.85
3 3 0.0225 0.0009
1 0.35
∑((O-E)2/E)=0.0292

Since we can not apply the χ2 test straightway here as the last two expected frequencies are less than
5, we should use the technique of pooling in this case as given below:
υ= 3-2 = 1
[since after grouping only 3 classes are left and when poisson distribution is fitted υ = n – 2 ].

υ = 1 , χ20.05 = 3.84
2
Calculated value of χ is much less than the table value. The hypothesis holds true.
Hence the fit is good.