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Sales Forecasting Assignment

This document contains monthly sales data from a hotel over a 30 month period, including the number of rooms, restaurants sales, banquets, and lounges. A regression analysis found a strong correlation between sales, rooms, and restaurants. The regression equation to predict monthly sales based on rooms and restaurants was: Sales = 1,203,396 + 4,570 * Rooms + 21.51 * Restaurants The model had an R-squared value of 0.76, indicating it explains 76% of the variation in sales. Predicted and actual monthly sales values were also shown to match closely with this equation over the reported time period.

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Saurabh Kumar
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
103 views11 pages

Sales Forecasting Assignment

This document contains monthly sales data from a hotel over a 30 month period, including the number of rooms, restaurants sales, banquets, and lounges. A regression analysis found a strong correlation between sales, rooms, and restaurants. The regression equation to predict monthly sales based on rooms and restaurants was: Sales = 1,203,396 + 4,570 * Rooms + 21.51 * Restaurants The model had an R-squared value of 0.76, indicating it explains 76% of the variation in sales. Predicted and actual monthly sales values were also shown to match closely with this equation over the reported time period.

Uploaded by

Saurabh Kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Months Sales (CAD) Rooms Restaurants Banquets Lounges

1 2,830,000 144 49,000 13 12,000


2 2,760,000 125 39,000 2 13,000
3 2,810,000 141 45,000 13 21,000
4 3,280,000 189 43,000 30 1,000
5 2,900,000 161 44,000 70 11,000
6 2,960,000 186 47,000 50 18,000
7 2,480,000 106 36,000 12 8,000
8 2,280,000 117 30,000 3 6,000
9 3,050,000 174 50,000 61 8,000
10 2,540,000 94 41,000 14 5,000
11 2,690,000 147 47,000 9 12,000
12 3,000,000 141 58,000 11 10,000
13 3,070,000 135 41,000 5 9,000
14 2,140,000 100 37,000 4 3,000
15 3,290,000 189 58,000 11 14,000
16 3,100,000 149 50,000 50 12,000
17 2,520,000 119 40,000 49 8,000
18 3,080,000 158 38,000 3 13,000
19 3,420,000 259 60,000 85 16,000
20 3,580,000 193 66,000 37 21,000
21 3,400,000 155 51,000 12 20,000
22 3,040,000 197 52,000 54 8,000
23 2,480,000 133 37,000 43 3,000
24 3,670,000 196 63,000 10 26,000
25
26
27
28
29
30
Sales Rooms RestaurantsBanquets Lounges
Sales 1
Rooms 0.802076 1
Restaurant 0.819494 0.726644 1
Banquets 0.239503 0.567286 0.292301 1
Lounges 0.647831 0.463152 0.641986 -0.015557 1

This table shows that there is a strong correlation between Sales and Rooms and Restaurants.
However correlation between Sales and Banquets and Sales and Lounges is weak.
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.90
R Square 0.81
Adjusted R Square 0.77
Standard Error 191579.6176
Observations 24

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 2972643585407 7.43E+11 20.2481 0.000
Residual 19 697352247926.8 3.67E+10
Total 23 3669995833333

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


Intercept 1248204.579 225950.4893942 5.524239 0.00002 775284.769689 1721124.389
Rooms 6116.912898 1835.104131248 3.333278 0.00349 2275.99580903 9957.829987
Restaurants 15.41394674 7.220318683266 2.134801 0.04602 0.30164605788 30.52624743
Banquets -3175.469996 2132.799735176 -1.488874 0.15293 -7639.4711445 1288.531153
Lounges 9.008488481 8.703161106891 1.035082 0.31363 -9.2074370651 27.22441403

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales Residuals


1 2951144.179 -121144.178629
2 2724722.025 35277.9754271
3 2952214.049 -142214.049294
4 2980845.215 299154.7846285
5 2788051.686 111948.3140448
6 3113785.168 -153785.167913
7 2485461.697 -5461.69692138
8 2470826.311 -190826.311344
9 2961608.999 88391.00139809
10 2455752.07 84247.92957748
11 2951368.904 -261368.90382
12 3059852.924 -59852.9236454
13 2771158.683 298841.3168722
14 2444535.484 -304535.483835
15 3389498.697 -99498.6966771
16 2879650.3 220349.6999747
17 2509144.962 10855.0382699
18 2907990.733 172009.2665286
19 3631542.69 -211542.690317
20 3517775.122 62224.87830872
21 3124501.492 275498.5081641
22 3155354.179 -115354.178712
23 2522550.28 -42550.2796442
24 3620664.152 49335.84755641
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
775284.76969 1721124.3885
2275.995809 9957.8299871
0.3016460579 30.526247427
-7639.471145 1288.5311534
-9.207437065 27.224414027
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.87
R Square 0.76
Adjusted R Square 0.74
Standard Error 203944.5161879
Observations 24

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 2796535153988 1.4E+12 33.61756 0.0000
Residual 21 873460679345.1 4.16E+10
Total 23 3669995833333

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


Intercept 1220396.108788 218849.9148957 5.576407 0.0000 765272.795854 1675519.422
Rooms 4570.381428509 1617.992657097 2.824723 0.0102 1205.58149814 7935.181359
Restaurants 21.50937526932 6.647058237799 3.235924 0.0040 7.68606093128 35.33268961

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales Residuals


1 2932490.42269 -102490.42269
2 2630559.422855 129440.5771449
3 2832741.777327 -22741.7773272
4 3009101.335357 270898.664643
5 2902640.030628 -2640.03062802
6 3081427.692149 -121427.692149
7 2479194.049905 805.9500945392
8 2400411.994003 -120411.994003
9 3091111.240815 -41111.2408145
10 2531896.34911 8103.650890055
11 2903182.816437 -213182.816437
12 3112363.655828 -112363.655828
13 2719281.987679 350718.0123212
14 2473281.136604 -333281.136604
15 3331741.964397 -41741.9643967
16 2976851.705102 123148.2948982
17 2624646.509553 -104646.509553
18 2759872.634727 320127.3652734
19 3694687.414931 -274687.414931
20 3522098.492265 57901.50773468
21 3025783.368942 374216.6310578
22 3239248.764209 -199248.764209
23 2624103.723745 -144103.723745
24 3471281.510743 198718.4892571
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
765272.79585 1675519.4217
1205.5814981 7935.1813589
7.6860609313 35.332689607
Months Predicted Sales Sales Rooms Restaurants
1 2,932,490 2,830,000 144 49,000
2 2,630,559 2,760,000 125 39,000
3 2,832,742 2,810,000 141 45,000 4,000,000
4 3,009,101 3,280,000 189 43,000
5 2,902,640 2,900,000 161 44,000 3,500,000
6 3,081,428 2,960,000 186 47,000
7 2,479,194 2,480,000 106 36,000 3,000,000
8 2,400,412 2,280,000 117 30,000
9 3,091,111 3,050,000 174 50,000 2,500,000
10 2,531,896 2,540,000 94 41,000
2,000,000
11 2,903,183 2,690,000 147 47,000
12 3,112,364 3,000,000 141 58,000
1,500,000
13 2,719,282 3,070,000 135 41,000
14 2,473,281 2,140,000 100 37,000 1,000,000
15 3,331,742 3,290,000 189 58,000
16 2,976,852 3,100,000 149 50,000 500,000
17 2,624,647 2,520,000 119 40,000
18 2,759,873 3,080,000 158 38,000 -
1 2 3 4
19 3,694,687 3,420,000 259 60,000
20 3,522,098 3,580,000 193 66,000
21 3,025,783 3,400,000 155 51,000
22 3,239,249 3,040,000 197 52,000 Equation :
23 2,624,104 2,480,000 133 37,000 Sales =
24 3,471,282 3,670,000 196 63,000
25 3,172,027 176 53,261
26 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
27 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
28 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
29 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
30 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Predicted Sales
4,000,000

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Predicted Sales Sales

Equation :
1220396 + 4570.3814 Rooms + 21.5093 Restaurants
28 29 30

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