WORK-IN-PROGRESS

E-Mobility Trends and Targets

As of January 2020 (constantly updated)

Insights of 55 market
trend reports and targets
by 70 countries, 81 cities
or regions and 50
companies. Visions by 23
automobile companies.

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If you have any news or relevant developments to share

This document compiles information on the development of electric mobility with regard to market trend or want to reference the document, please send an
reports; official targets by countries, cities, and companies; and industry plans. This document is a work-in- email to nikola.medimorec@slocatpartnership.org.
progress and will be expanded with additional narrative and data on e-mobility.

Contents

E-mobility Targets by Countries .................................................................................................................................................. 3

E-Mobility Targets by Cities and Regions .................................................................................................................................. 18
E-Mobility Targets by Companies ............................................................................................................................................. 27
Market Trend Reports ............................................................................................................................................................... 32
Automobile Manufacturer/OEM Targets .................................................................................................................................. 58

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E-mobility Targets by Countries

Policy plans by countries and cities can work as catalysts towards e-mobility. From January to July 2017 alone, 16 policy announcements were recorded, more than in any
previous year. The overview below indicates that the ambition level has increased over time, and in 2017 some of the most progressive announcements have been made.

A few countries and regions have announced plans to phase-out fossil fuel vehicles and shift to e-mobility. Leading examples are shown in the map above. Countries and regions
with the intention to phase out fossil fuel-powered vehicles by year:

2025: Norway
2030: Denmark, Ireland, Israel, Nepal, Netherlands, Slovenia, Sweden
2032: Scotland
2035: Colombia, United Kingdom
2040: British Columbia, California, Canada, France, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka, Taiwan
2050: Cabo Verde, Costa Rica, Japan, Mexico
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Most of the countries plan to ban sales of internal combustion engines. India has previously made statements regarding a possible phase-out by 2030 but the most recent EV
roadmap does not include any phase-out targets. China works on a phase-out plan as well but most likely sub-regional level will set phase-out plans.

Other countries have set targets for absolute number or overall share of electric vehicles by a certain year. 2020 is a major target year, with Spain aiming for 2.5 million electric
vehicles, Germany and India aiming for 1 million, Portugal targeting 750,000 and South Korea aiming for 200,000 electric cars. Country targets for 2030 include Finland’s goal of
250,000 electric vehicles, Malaysia aiming for 100,000 electric cars, and South Africa’s targeting a 20% share of electric cars. Norway is a leading country in terms of e-mobility
thanks to financial incentives.

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
United February 2020 Petrol and diesel car sales ban brought forward to ✓ ✓
Kingdom 2035
September Subsidies for e-cargobikes to be provided ✓
2018
July 2018 • Expects that 100% of cars to be zero- ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
emission by 2040
• Want to see at least 50 to 70% of new car
sales and 40% of vans to be ultra low
emission by 2030

25% of government fleet to be ultra low emission

by 2022
March 2018 Encouraging ULEV uptake to realize every new car ✓
an ULEV from 2040 and an effectively
decarbonised fleet by 2050
July 2017 New diesel and petrol cars and vans to be banned ✓ ✓
from 2040 in UK
June 2017 • 60% of new cars and vans to be electric ✓ ✓
vehicles by 2030.
• 100% of new cars electric by 2040.
The United Kingdom established a target of 1.55
million vehicles by 2020. € 300 million will be
devoted to promoting electric cars between 2009
and 2014.
January 2013 1,550,000 electric vehicles and 122,000 publicly ✓ ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020 (street
or parking lot charging station)

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Pakistan November Electric vehicles capture 30% of all the ✓ ✓ ✓
2019 passenger vehicle and heavy-duty truck sales
by 2030, and 90% by 2040; for two- and three-
wheelers and buses: 50% of new sales by 2030
and 90% by 2040.
April 2018 Pakistan to cut import tax on EVs by 25% to ✓
stimulate EV Uptake
Colombia August 2019 10% of vehicle sales to be zero emission by 2025, ✓
600,000 electric vehicles by and government fleet
to be 100% electric by 2030. No more fossil fuel
cars to be sold after 2035.
Hungary July 2019 In the next 2-3 years, every sixth bus will be ✓
replaced by an electric one and all public transport
to be electric by 2029
January 2013 7,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Singapore May 2019 All buses to run on clean energy by 2040, 60 ✓
electric buses to be introduced by 2020
December Singapore's first electric car-sharing service was ✓ ✓
2017 officially launched with 80 cars and 32 charging
stations
June 2016 1,000 electric cars will be rolled out across ✓ ✓
Singapore, powered by 2,000 charging points by
2020
Chile May 2019 Chile to electrify all buses by 2040 ✓
2016 Target to electrify 25% of public transport bus fleet ✓
in the capital Santiago by 2025 (National Climate
Action Plan 2017-2022)
India May 2019 To sell only electric three-wheeler from 2023, and ✓
two-wheelers from 2025
March 2019 India has now more than 100 electric buses ✓
March 2018 Indian Government program FAME II with $ 1.3 ✓ ✓ ✓
billion, to support demand-side incentives, buses,
cars, two/three-wheelers

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Launch of National E-Mobility Program to have
more than 30% of EVs by 2030
May 2017 Every car sold in India from 2030 will be electric ✓
2013 The 2020 target: 2W - 5 million vehicles, 3W - ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
30,000, 4W - 1 million vehicles, LCV - 50,000, Buses
- 30,000 = Total 5 to 7 million vehicles
South Korea March 2019 To shift commercial vehicles (including trucks and ✓ ✓
construction machinery) to run on fuel cell energy
by 2035
July 2018 1,000 hydrogen-powered buses to be on road in ✓
Korea by 2022
December The government will strive to boost the number of ✓ ✓ ✓
2014 battery-powered cars on the road from the current
800 to 3,000 in 2015 and 200,000 in 2020 and
diversify the portfolio to taxis, buses and trucks .
The initial target was 1 million vehicles by 2020.
Cabo Verde February 2019 E-Mobility policy chapter includes to stop import ✓
of ICE vehicles by 2035 and to have only EVs by
2050, 100% public fleet by 2030
May 2015 Making government vehicles electrically powered ✓
by 2030.
Costa Rica February 2019 Costa Rica’s 2050 decarbonisation plan includes ✓
25% of vehicles, 70% of buses and taxis to be zero
emission by 2035; 100% of vehicle sales, 60% of
vehicles and 100% of buses to be zero emission by
2050
January 2018 Signed law about tax exemption to promote e- ✓
mobility
December Costa Rica aims for 37,000 new EVs within 5 years ✓
2017
June 2017 Preparing bill to ban import of fossil fuel cars by ✓
2030
November greater use of electric transportation, both public ✓ ✓
2015 and private
Portugal February 2019 Government supports purchase of 1000 e-bikes ✓

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
November Portugal intends to ban sales of ICE vehicles by ✓
2018 2040
July 2017 Portugal will soon be fully covered by electric car ✓
charging stations, one in each municipality
January 2013 200,000 electric vehicles and 12,000 publicly ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020
2009 The Portuguese State also committed to play an ✓
educational role and defined that EV’s will have a
20% share of the annual renewal of the public car
fleet, starting in 2011. It is estimated
approximately 130,000 EVs will in circulation in
Portugal by 2015 and 750,000 by 2020.
Sweden January 2019 To ban fossil fuel cars by 2030 ✓
October 2017 E-bikes are now subsidized with 25% purchase ✓
grant
January 2013 600,000 electric vehicles and 14000 publicly ✓ ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020 (street
or parking lot charging station)
Canada January 2019 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2040 ✓
October 2013 Highway 401 (900 km) electrified with 20 public ✓
charging stations
Indonesia January 2019 Target to have 2.1 million electric motorcycles and
2,200 electric cars by 2025
August 2017 Indonesia to introduce tax breaks for low-carbon ✓
cars to achieve 29% less emissions by 2030
October 2015 Electric vehicle and hybrid, each 1% and 5% share ✓
in 2050
Netherlands January 2019 In 2018, sales of e-bikes higher than normal bikes ✓
January 2018 First electric container ship to start operating in ✓
summer 2018 between Belgium and the
Netherlands
October 2017 New government confirms plan to ban new petrol ✓
and diesel cars by 2030
April 2016 Netherlands moots electric car future with petrol ✓
and diesel ban by 2025

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
2015 75,000 privately owned electric vehicles on the ✓
country’s roads by 2020, and 50% of all new cars
sales plug-in electric—with at least 30% of these
vehicles fully electric—by 2025
January 2013 200,000 electric vehicles and 32,000 publicly ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020 (street
or parking lot charging station)
July 2009 65 million euros to make “the Netherlands the ✓
guide and international laboratory for electric
driving”
Spain November Spain to propose ban sales of ICE vehicles by 2040 ✓
2018
August 2014 Spain offers 200 Euro purchase subsidy for e-bikes ✓
January 2013 2,500,000 electric vehicles and 82000 publicly ✓ ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020 (street
or parking lot charging station)
January 2013 Spain established a target of 250,000 BEVs and ✓
PHEVs by 2014 and 2.5 million EVs by 2020
Israel October 2018 Phase out new diesel and gasoline cars by 2030 ✓

To have 177,000 electric cars by 2025 and 1.5

million by 2030
February 2018 To eliminate use of coal, gasoline and diesel for ✓
energy production and transport by 2030 but
continue using natural gas
Denmark October 2018 Ban of sales of new ICEs is planned, starting with ✓
only hybrids, EVs and fuel cell cars by 2030 and
only EVs and fuel cells by 2035

By 2030, there will be more than one million EVs

on the roads
January 2013 200,000 electric vehicles and 5,000 publicly ✓ ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020 (street
or parking lot charging station)

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Iceland September Iceland is to ban registrations of fossil fuel cars by ✓
2018 2030
Mexico September By 2050, to sell only zero emission vehicle (5% of ✓
2018 new vehicle sales by 2030 and 50% by 2040)
Japan July 2018 All Japanese cars to be electric by 2050 ✓
June 2017 To increase the share of electric vehicles and plug- ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
in hybrid vehicles to between 20 and 30 percent
and also the share of fuel cell vehicles up to 3
percent among total new passenger vehicle sales
by 2030.
June 2014 To develop technologies to produce battery packs
whose energy density stands at 250Wh/kg and
output density at 1500W/kg for EVs; and energy
density at 200Wh/kg and output density at
2500W/kg for PHEVs; and the cost at ¥20,000/kWh
for both in the year 2020.
2010 20% sales by 2020 and Charging station target of 2
million (normal) and 5000 (fast)
Kyrgyzstan July 2018 No import taxes on EVs from July ✓
Uzbekistan July 2018 Uzbekistan introduces zero duty on import of ✓
electric vehicles from January 2019
China July 2018 New target to see 2 million EVs per year by 2020 ✓
December China extends EV rebate to 2020 ✓
2017
September • China considers to phase out diesel and ✓ ✓
2017 petrol cars
• China builds world’s largest EV charging
network with 167,000 stations
• To introduce new energy vehicle quota in
2019

2015 • NEVs will reach 5% of the total vehicle ✓ ✓ ✓

market demand by 2020, and 20% by
2025, China issued the “Electric vehicle
charging infrastructure development
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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
guide (2015-2020)” targeting 12,000 new
centralized charging and switch station
and >4.8 million charging spots
(accommodating for needs of 5M NEVs by
2020)
• The country's future roadmap of new-car
sales projects 7 million ZEVs by the year
2025

September Second phase of e-bus subsidy policies: all-electric ✓

2013 buses to receive 38,000 to 64,000 euros, hybrids
32,000 euros and fuel cell buses 64,000 euros
January 2009 • “Ten Cities, Thousands of Vehicles” ✓
demonstration program
• Pure battery vehicle purchase subsidy of
64,000 euros and 77,000 euros
respectively per vehicle hybrid bus could
receive 64,100 euros to 54,000 euros
Uruguay July 2018 To introduce 110 electric buses and 550 electric ✓ ✓
buses by 2025
Scotland June 2018 Two new funds with a total of 1.3 million GBP are ✓
being announced to encourage more people to use
electric bicycles
September Scotland to ban sales of fossil fuel-powered ✓
2017 vehicles by 2032
40% of car sales by 2032 to be EVs and other low
emission vehicles
June 2009 Almost complete decarbonisation of road ✓ ✓
transport by 2050 with significant progress by 2030
through wholesale adoption of electric cars and
vans, and significant decarbonisation of rail by
2050
Norway May, 2018 To have emission-free vessels in Fjords and near ✓
harbors by 2026

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
January 2018 All short-haul flights 100% to be electric by 2040 ✓

September Differentiated purchase and use taxes on vehicles ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

2016 are essential for a quick introduction of zero-
emission vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Shoreside
electric power and electric charging power is to be
available in ports where traffic and ship types
provide a great potential for emission cuts, both in
order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
local air pollution while at berth, and to make
hybrid solutions a viable option for ships. Within
rail transport diesel is to be replaced by carbon-
neutral fuels or low- and zero-emission
technology. After 2025, all new light vehicles, new
city buses and new light commercial vans should
be ZEVs. By 2030, all new heavy commercial vans,
75 percent of new long-distance buses and 50
percent of new lorries should be ZEVs. By 2030,
distribution of goods should take place almost
without emissions in the largest city areas in line
with the EU’s White Paper on transport
Nepal April 2018 Government announces intention to replace all ✓
fuel vehicles by EVs until 2030
Australia March 2018 Opposition proposes to ban sales of diesel and ✓
petrol cars by 2030
Jordan March 2018 10,000 electric car charging stations to be built in ✓
Jordan
September Introduce electric cars and build 3,000 charging ✓
2015 stations over the next ten years
Germany March 2018 New government targets 100,000 public electric ✓ ✓
charging stations to be installed by 2020
Vehicle taxes for company EVs will be reduced

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
February 2018 EU Commission approves €70 million public ✓
support scheme for electric buses and charging
infrastructure in Germany
July 2017 1,000 new EV charging stations on German ✓
Autobahn by 2020
October 2016 • Only zero-emission passenger vehicles will ✓ ✓
be approved” for use in 2030.
• One million electric cars on German roads
by 2020.
• Make all passenger vehicles sales ZEVs by
no later than 2050
January 2013 150,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations ✓
by 2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
April 2011 Germany aims for 1 million EVs by 2020 ✓

January 2009 Germany has set itself a battery density by volume ✓

level of 280 to 300 Wh/l by 2025
Fiji February 2018 By 2030, to have more hybrid and electric vehicles ✓ ✓ ✓
in the private and public transportation sector
Ireland February 2018 National Development Plan 2018-2027 includes ✓ ✓ ✓
target of 500,000 EVs by 2030, no new non-zero
emission vehicle to be sold in 2030, more electric
buses and no diesel only buses purchased from
2019
July 2017 Ireland wants to electrify all vehicles (cars and ✓
vans) by 2030
January 2013 350,000 electric vehicles and 2,000 publicly ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020
2011 By 2020 the EV contribution to the passenger car ✓ ✓
segment is 10%, growing to 60% by 2050 in the
medium scenario

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Thailand February 2018 ChargeNow expands charging network in Thailand ✓

March 2016 The goal for Thailand is to get 1.2 million electric ✓ ✓
vehicles and build 690 charging stations on its
roads by 2036
Ukraine January 2018 Ukrainian Parliament has adopted a provisional ✓
exemption on value-added tax and excise tax for
all electric vehicles for 2018
Poland December Polish government adopts e-mobility draft with no ✓ ✓
2017 excise tax on electric vehicles, zero parking fees for
e-car drivers and clean transport zones and 6,000
charging stations
September By 2025, there will be a million electric cars on ✓ ✓
2017 polish roads, as well as introducing the concept of
electrification of public transport.
April 2017 Roadmap for Deployment of E-mobility Charging ✓ ✓
Infrastructure in Poland
February 2017 41 cities and municipalities signed an agreement to ✓
buy fleets of electric buses by 2020
September Poland aims to have 1 million electric cars on its ✓
2016 roads by 2025
January 2013 46,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations ✓
by 2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Sri Lanka November Replace all state-owned vehicles with electric or ✓
2017 hybrid models by 2025 and all private vehicles by
2040
November To cut taxes on electric cars by at least one million ✓ ✓ ✓
2017 rupees (6,500 USD), also less for electric buses and
two/three-wheelers
April 2015 10% of vehicle fleet to be electric by 2020 ✓
Iran November Tax exemptions planned for hybrid electric vehicles ✓
2017

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Slovenia October 2017 Slovenia to ban new fossil-fuel cars from 2030, ✓
reduce debt
January 2013 14,000 electric vehicles and 3000 publicly ✓ ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020 (street
or parking lot charging station)
United Arab September Aims for 42,000 electric vehicles (EVs) on the
Emirates 2017 emirate’s streets by 2030
May 2017 10 per cent of car fleets of federal ministries and ✓
agencies to be electric vehicles, long-term plan
aims for up to 20 per cent of government fleets to
have electric vehicles
Malaysia August 2017 By 2030, 100,000 electric cars, 100,000 electric ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
motorcycles on the road, along with 2,000 electric
buses and 125,000 charging stations in the country
Georgia July 2017 €5.5 million sovereign loan to Georgia to be on- ✓
lent to the City of Batumi to acquire 10 battery-
electric buses
January 2017 Import taxes for Hybrids reduced by 60%, BEVs ✓
completely free of import duties
France July 2017 The French government has set out an ambitious ✓
goal for no more petrol or diesel cars to be sold in
the country by 2040.
February 2017 France offers 200 Euro subsidy on electric bicycles ✓

November 7 million charging points for plug-in hybrid and ✓

2015 electric vehicles by 2030
January 2013 97000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020
October 2009 France in 2009 had established 2 million by 2020
target
Austria April 2017 Austria renews e-bike support: 500 Euro for e- ✓
cargo bike and 200 for e-bike
January 2013 250,000 electric vehicles and 12,000 publicly ✓ ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020. 5%
share of all registered passenger vehicles.
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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
South Africa April 2017 Country will have more than 2.9-million electric ✓
cars on the road by 2050, with R6.5-trillion
invested in the industry over the next four
decades.
November Target 20% hybrid-electric vehicles by 2030.
2015
Finland November 250 000 electric vehicles by 2030 (street or parking ✓
2016 lot charging station)
January 2013 7,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Slovakia September Slovakia’s target is for 31 per cent of all new ✓
2016 vehicles in the country to be electric by 2030. The
Ministry plans in the future to build one charging
station for every 10 EVs.
January 2013 4,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓ ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
New Zealand May 2016 A goal of reaching approximately 64,000 electric ✓
vehicles on our roads by the end of 2021
Andorra June 2016 Andorra Approves €9,000 Subsidy For Electric Cars, ✓ ✓
€11,000 For Electric Pickup Trucks
Belarus June 2016 • At least 10,000 electric vehicles in Belarus ✓
by 2025
• Two scenarios: 30,800 electric cars and
1,880 electric buses (optimistic scenario)
or 9, 960 electric cars and 590 electric
buses (pessimistic scenario)
Azerbaijan November Enhance the use of electric vehicles at public ✓
2015 transportation

Cambodia November Increase use of hybrid cars and electric vehicles ✓

2015
Colombia 2015 96 vehicles using electricity ✓ ✓

Dominica September government vehicles to be replaced by hybrids ✓

2015 vehicles
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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Ecuador May 2015 • Clean Mobility plan includes integrated ✓
urban transport system and all new taxis
must be electric
• All new vehicles on Galapagos to be
electric
February 2015 Government plans to promote electric mobility ✓

Marshall July 2015 Introduction of electric vehicles ✓

Islands
Mongolia November Increase the share of private hybrid road vehicles ✓
2015 from approximately 6.5% in 2014 to approximately
13% by 2030
Seychelles November More use of electric vehicles charged with ✓
2015 renewable energy technology
Mali 2015 Replace more than one-third of fossil fuels (with ✓
renewables) for transport by 2030
Bhutan November Bhutan is a 70 percent reduction in fossil fuel ✓
2014 imports by 2020 & enhance market share of EV
substantially in 5 years
Brunei December White paper on Land Transport considering zero- ✓ ✓
Darussalam 2014 emission electric vehicles, electric buses
Philippines March 2014 • Bill promoting Electric Vehicle and Hybrids ✓
which has been under the Senate since
2014
• Electric Vehicle Association of the
Philippines (EVAP) aspires for the
establishment of a national development
program for EVs
Belgium January 2013 21,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations ✓
by 2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Bulgaria January 2013 7,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Cyprus January 2013 2,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Country Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Czech Republic January 2013 13,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations ✓
by 2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Estonia January 2013 • 1,000 publicly accessible infrastructure ✓
stations by 2020 (street or parking lot
charging station)
• World’s first nationwide network of fast
chargers (165 quick charging stations)
Greece January 2013 13,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations ✓
by 2020
Italy January 2013 125,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations ✓
by 2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Lithuania January 2013 4,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Luxembourg January 2013 40,000 electric vehicles and 1000 publicly ✓ ✓
accessible infrastructure stations by 2020 (street
or parking lot charging station)
Latvia January 2013 2,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Malta January 2013 1,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations by ✓
2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Romania January 2013 10,000 publicly accessible infrastructure stations ✓
by 2020 (street or parking lot charging station)
Viet Nam August 2013 100,000 electric cars as part of 6 million ✓
environmentally-friendly vehicles by 2020
EU March 2011 Halve the use of ‘conventionally-fuelled’ cars in ✓ ✓
urban transport by 2030; phase them out in cities
by 2050; achieve essentially CO2-free city logistics
in major urban centres by 2030
Antigua and August 2011 Strategic Intent for support of hybrid, flex-fuel or ✓
Barbuda electric vehicles
United States February 2011 One million electric vehicles on the road by 2015 ✓ ✓
of America

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E-Mobility Targets by Cities and Regions

Numerous cities are following similar bold actions as taken by national governments. For instance, by 2030, Seattle aims for a 30% share for electric vehicles, and Dubai is
targeting a 10% share. Hong Kong wants to replace all conventional buses with zero emission buses. An outstanding example is London, which plans for a zero-emission
transport system by 2050.

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
New Delhi December Delhi rolls out electric vehicle policy, aiming ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
2019 for 500,000 electric vehicles by 2025, 25% of
registrations to be electric by 2024, 100% of
last-mile delivery to be electric by 2025
November Draft Electric Vehicle Policy aims for 25% of all new ✓
2018 vehicle registrations by 2023 to be battery-electric
vehicle
March 2018 1000 fully-electric buses in Delhi during the 2018- ✓
19 fiscal year, 905 electric feeder vehicle and E-
rickshaw subsidy
Colorado August 2019 Colorado will require electric cars to make up 5% ✓
percent of an automaker’s lineups by 2023.
Ahmedabad July 2019 To procure 300 electric buses ✓
British July 2019 To replace 1,200 existing buses with e-buses and ✓
Columbia adding another 350 over the next 10 years, goal is
to have entire fleet of electric buses by 2040.
November To only sell zero-emission vehicles (cars and ✓ ✓
2018 trucks) by 2040 (10 % by 2025 and 30 % by 2030)
December Make all passenger vehicles sales ZEVs by no later ✓ ✓
2015 than 2050
Balearic Islands July 2019 Target is 100% renewables by 2050 and will stop ✓
sale of new gasoline and diesel cars by 2035, car
hire business will go all-electric
Gurugam July 2019 To add 100 electric minibuses ✓
San Francisco July 2019 San Francisco aims for emission-free ✓ ✓
transportation by 2040 and wants to ban sales of
ICE vehicles by 2030

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
April 2017 Starting January 2018, the ordinance requires new ✓
residential, commercial, and municipal buildings to
have sufficient electrical infrastructure to
simultaneously charge vehicles in 20% of parking
spaces.
Milan July 2019 Milan to receive 250 electric buses, 40 buses to be ✓
delivered by 2020
October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
Kerala June 2019 1 million EVs (buses, cars, ferries, two/three- ✓
wheelers and freight vehicle) by 2022
Toronto June 2019 Introduces first electric bus, to have 60 e-buses by ✓
2020
Los Angeles April 2019 Los Angeles aims to increase the percentage of ✓
electric and zero emission vehicles in the city to
25% by 2025, 80% by 2035, and 100% by 2050;
electrify 10% of its taxi fleet by 2022, and 100% of
its fleet by 2028. LA wants to electrify all of its
Metro and LADOT buses by 2030, and it plans to
introduce 155 new electric buses into its fleet in
2021; wants to install 10,000 publicly available EV
chargers by 2022; and 28,000 chargers by 2028.
October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
July 2017 Move to 2,300 electric buses for emission-free
public transport fleet by 2030
March 2017 Increase the percentage of electric and zero ✓
emission vehicles in the city to 10% in 2025 and
25% in 2035
Seoul April 2019 Seoul plans to replace 100,000 motorcycles in the ✓
capital with electric ones by 2025
July 2018 Seoul Capital Region to transform all diesel buses ✓
to CNG, electric or hydrogen buses by 2027
January 2011 Seoul's Bus Fleet Plans to Turn Half Electric by ✓ ✓
2020 and 120,000 EVs on Seoul streets by 2020

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Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Hainan March 2019 China's island province of Hainan will ban the sale ✓
of oil-fueled automobiles throughout the province
by 2030 and shift all government fleets by 2020
California December California announces transition to all-electric buses ✓
2018 by 2040
February 2018 Lawmakers wants all Uber, Lyft cars to be electric ✓
by 2028
January 2018 Seeks Ban on Fossil-Fueled Vehicles by 2040 ✓
January 2017 over 4 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030 ✓ ✓
October 2016 An updated roadmap toward 1.5 million zero- ✓ ✓
emission vehicles on California roadways by 2025
December Make all passenger vehicles sales ZEVs by no later ✓ ✓
2015 than 2050
Santiago November 100 new electric buses introduced, plans to have ✓
2018 500 more electric buses by 2020
December Introduced 3 full electric buses in December 2017 ✓
2017 and plans to have 90 buses in 2018
Porto November Will have 86 new electric buses, representing 41% ✓
2018 of bus fleet within next two years
Bengalore September Bengalore to have 100% electric buses by 2023 ✓
2018
Rotterdam July 2018 Rotterdam announced to make its busses 100% ✓
zero emission by 2029, starting with 55 new
busses by the end of next year
Medellin July 2018 Committed to change all buses to 100% electric ✓
Gothenburg July 2018 Gothenburg purchases 30 more electric buses to ✓
achieve target of 80% less transport emission by
2020, 95% of transport to be powered by
renewable energy by 2025
Maharashtra May 2018 E-Mobility programme launched, 10 EVs in ✓ ✓
Mumbai, target is to have 500,00 EVs and 100,000
jobs
Ulsan May 2018 Transform all 741 buses to fuel-cell buses by 2035 ✓
Washington, April 2018 14 EV buses put into service ✓
D.C.
Oslo April 2018 To add 70 electric buses by summer of 2019 ✓
20
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
January 2017 Subsidy of $1,200 for citizens to buy electric cargo ✓
bikes and $600 for normal e-bikes
June 2016 City of Oslo shall facilitate a city logistics system ✓ ✓
where traffic demand is reduced, and where all
new cars and light freight vehicles in Oslo shall use
renewable fuels or be plug-in hybrids from 2020.
Cardiff April 2018 Cardiff's city light vehicle fleet to be zero emission ✓
by 2022
Australian April 2018 Transition to Zero Emissions Vehicles Action Plan ✓ ✓ ✓
Capital 2018-2021 was announced, government fleet to
Territory be zero emission vehicles by 2021, zero emissions
vehicles allowed to drive in transit lanes until 2023
and charging infrastructure to be expanded
Katowice March 2018 Acquires 300 battery electric buses, now 30% of ✓
bus fleet electrified
Paris March 2018 Citizens can receive 400 Euro for purchasing an e- ✓
bike, 600 Euro for electric or conventional cargo
bikes
February 2018 800 hybrid buses employed in Paris, to have 100%
clean fleet (4,700 clean buses) by 2025
November Climate Action Plan: zero diesel vehicles by 2024, ✓ ✓
2017 no more petrol-fueled cars by 2030, Zero local
emissions by 2050
October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
December Ban diesel cars and vans by 2025 ✓
2016
July 2015 Program to give $11,400 incentive for people ✓
trading in an old diesel for an EV
Buenos Aires March 2018 Buenos Aires to introduce 8 electric buses on four ✓
lines in trial phase, part of Clean Mobility Plan
2035
Rome March 2018 Rome is banning all oil-burning cars by 2024 ✓
October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)

21
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Lhasa March 2018 312 hybrid (gas-electric) buses now in operation ✓
and by end of 2018 over 80% of buses to be clean
vehicles
Salt Lake City March 2018 City removes fees at all 28 electric charging ✓
stations
Karnataka February 2018 • Developed Electric Vehicle and Energy ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Storage Policy 2017
• Achieve 100% electric mobility for auto
rickshaws, cab aggregators, corporate
fleets and school buses in Bengaluru by
2030
• Introduce 1,000 EV buses
• Good transport with electric vehicles
Alexandria January 2018 Purchasing 15 all-electric buses and 18 charging ✓ ✓
points
March 2018 London Police added first ever zero-emission ✓
vehicles, goal is to have 550 vehicles by 2020
London January 2018 First EV taxis start service ✓
October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
June 2017 • 1500 electric vehicle charging points to be ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
installed across London
• The Mayor’s aims are for all taxis and
Private Hire Vehicles (PHVs) to be zero
emission capable by 2033, for all buses to
be zero emission by 2037, for all new road
vehicles driven in London to be zero
emission by 2040, and for London’s entire
transport system to be zero emission by
2050.
Oregon January 2018 Electric Vehicle Rebate beginning ✓
Taiyuan January 2018 Electrified entire taxi fleet in 2016, buses in 2018 ✓ ✓
and plans to ban ICE cars
Chisinau December NAMA on Hybrid and Electric Buses ✓
2017

22
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Hawaii December Hawaii committed to 100% renewable transport by ✓
2017 2045, Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative
Cologne December 50 electric buses to be purchased ✓
2017
Havana November Trial run of Cuba’s first electric bus started on ✓
2017 November 27
Tirana October 2017 Started testing electric buses after introducing ✓ ✓
electric taxis
Vermont September To receive two electric buses as part of federal ✓
2017 grant
Utrecht September • Utrecht introducing electric buses ✓
2017
Beijing October 2017 • Study shows that without technological ✓ ✓ ✓
breakthrough and policies EVs will have
February 2017 market share of 7% by 2030, with new
technology and supporting policies 70% of
November new vehicle sales will be electric, 50% of
2016 vehicle stock will be electric by 2030
• All newly added or replaced taxies in the
city of Beijing will be converted from
gasoline to electricity.
• Beijing plans to install 435,000 charging
stations between 2016 and 2020

Barcelona October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓

procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
October 2014 Barcelona supports e-bike buyers with 250 Euro ✓
(support was provided until end of 2017)
Cape Town October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
September First electric buses have been introduced ✓
2017
Copenhagen October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
July 2017 Copenhagen to procure only electric buses from ✓
2019
23
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
September By 2025, public transport is carbon neutral, 20- ✓ ✓ ✓
2012 30% LDVs and 30 to 40% HDV’s use low carbon
fuel (including electric)
Heidelberg October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
Mexico City October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
December Ban diesel cars and vans by 2025 ✓
2016
Quito October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
Seattle October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
September 30% of all light-duty vehicles in Seattle operate ✓ ✓
2016 under electric power by the year 2030
Vancouver October 2017 Signed C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration (to ✓
procure only zero-emission buses from 2025)
November Approximately 70 per cent of light-duty vehicles ✓
2016 will plug into an external power source in 2050
Bridgetown September Bridgetown, the capital of Barbados, introduced ✓
2017 solar-powered electric vehicle
Oxford August 2017 100 electric vehicle charging points in "first on- ✓
street charging pilot of its size in the world"
beginning in 2017
Quebec January 2017 • Starting with the 2018 model year, 3.5 per ✓
cent of all auto sales in the province will
April 2016 have to be from those types of vehicles.
That threshold will rise to 15.5 per cent
December for 2025 models.
2015 • Quebec sets target of 100,000 electric
and plug-in hybrids by 2020
• Make all passenger vehicles sales ZEVs by
no later than 2050

Queensland July 2017 Queensland will have a 2,000km network with 18 ✓ ✓

electric vehicle charging stations
24
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
New York City April 2017 20% of the motor vehicles sold for use in New York ✓
City to be electric by 2025, up from less than 1%
today
December Add 2,000 electric vehicles (EVs) to its municipal ✓
2015 vehicle fleet by 2025
Hong Kong April 2017 The ultimate objective of the Government is to ✓
have zero emission buses running across the
territory.
Dubai January 2017 A 10 per cent share for hybrid and electric vehicles ✓
among all new cars purchased between 2016 and
2020. It also targets that 2 per cent of all cars in
Dubai will be either electric or hybrid vehicles by
2020 and it will reach 10 per cent by 2030
Mexico City December Ban diesel cars and vans by 2025 ✓
2016
Madrid December Ban diesel cars and vans by 2025 ✓
2016
Athens December Ban diesel cars and vans by 2025 ✓
2016
Amsterdam September The target is to become a zero emissions city by
2016 2025, with opportunities for everyone to adopt
electric transport.
September
Belgrade Purchase of electric buses ✓
2016
Montreal June 2016 10-point plan, among are converting municipal ✓ ✓ ✓
fleet to electric until 2020, electrify public
transport (purchase only electric by 2025, set up
1000 charging stations by 2020
US states December • Make all passenger vehicles sales ZEVs by ✓ ✓ ✓
(Connecticut, 2015 no later than 2050
Maine, • Commit to 1.8 million zero-emission
Maryland, May 2014 vehicles by 2025 (3.3 million including
Massachusetts, California).
New Jersey,
New York,
Oregon, Rhode
25
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Island,
Vermont)
Reykjavik September • All municipal vehicles will be powered ✓ ✓
2016 through GHG emission-free energy by
2025
• Modal split will consist of 58% private
vehicles, 12% public transport, 30%
walking and cycling by 2030
• Vehicle traffic and public transport will be
emission-free by 2040
• Long-term goal: reduce GHG emissions by
73% before 2050
US States 2016 West Coast Electric Highway with thousands of ✓
(Washington, fast-charging stations
Oregon,
California)
Portland June 2015 • Electric vehicles will displace 10 percent ✓
of all miles driven by 2030 and an
additional 15 percent of all miles driven
by 2050.
• An estimated 50,000 electric vehicles in
the metro area
Brussels May 2016 Brussels aims to fully electrify its bus fleet by 2030 ✓
Washington December • 20 percent of new vehicles electric by ✓
2015 2017
February 2015 • 50,000 Plug-In Electric Vehicles by 2020
Stockholm May 2011 Ambition to be one of the world’s leading clean ✓
vehicle cities by 2030 with electric vehicles playing
important role in this transformation.
Jeju May 2012 • 371,000 electric cars and 225,000 ✓ ✓
rechargers will be available across the
island by 2030
• All its vehicles to be electric by 2030
Illinois 2009 By July 1, 2015, at least 20% of new passenger ✓
vehicles purchased must be hybrid electric vehicles

26
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
City/Region Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
(HEVs) and 5% must be battery electric vehicles
(EVs); and by July 1, 2025, at least 60% of new
passenger vehicles purchased must be HEVs and
15% must be EVs.

E-Mobility Targets by Companies

A leading company in the field of e-mobility is Deutsche Post DHL, which has set a long-term goal to reduce all logistics-related emissions to zero by 2050
through its Go Green Program, in which electric mobility is poised to play a major role. The overview also includes all members of the EV100 group by The
Climate Group.
Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Company Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
16 of UK’s September • By 2020, these 16 fleets alone will put ✓
largest van 2018 more electric vans on the road than have
fleet operators been purchased by the whole UK industry
join Clean Van in the last year (2,400 in total)
Commitment • First time fleets collaborate to kickstart
the replacement of UK’s 4 million diesel
vans by investing £40 million sending
clear demand signal to manufacturers
• Further commitment for 18,000 electric
vans to replace diesel vans by 2028
Signify (Philips September Joined EV100 with the goal to electrify company ✓
Lighting) 2018 fleet by 2030
Swedavia July 2018 • Swedish airport operator Swedavia made ✓
operations at Visby Airport fossil fuel free
• 10 more airports to follow until 2020
Uber June 2018 Uber launches EV Champions program, aims to ✓
deliver at least 5 million rides by EV in 7 pilot cities
in USA

27
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Company Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
September UberX has to be offered through hybrid and ✓
2017 electric vehicles in London from 2020, for other Uk
cities, the goal is 2022
Christchurch June 2018 Airport aims to transition its vehicle fleet to 100% ✓
Airport electric by 2030, member of EV100 Group
Chicago Transit June 2018 Purchase of 20 new, all-electric buses ✓
Authority
Meru April 2018 Meru, a ride-hailing service in India, partners with ✓
Mahindra in a pilot project to use EVs in
Hyderabad and intention to transform fleet
Amsterdam April 2018 Launches Green-Mobility Fleet with 100 electric ✓
Schiphol buses, plans to have 260 by 2021 and to have zero-
Airport emission on the ground by 2040
UPS April 2018 UPS Germany began testing two new electric VW ✓
Crafter vans
February 2018 • 50 plug-in electric delivery trucks will be ✓
comparable in acquisition cost to
conventional-fueled trucks without any
subsidies
• Company has more than 300 electric
vehicles, and 700 hybrid electric vehicles
• Goal is that one in four new vehicles
purchased by 2020 being an alternative
fuel
By 2025, 25 percent of the electricity it consumes
from renewable energy
AB InBev March 2018 By 2025, 100% of used electricity will come from ✓
renewable sources and a 25% reduction in CO2
emissions across value chain (science-based), also
including transport
Flixbus March 2018 Introduces first all-electric, long-distances buses on ✓
a 150 km route
AEON Mall March 2018 • EV100 member, commitment to install ✓
charging at all premises by 2030

28
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Company Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
• Already has 751 EV chargers installed at
135 malls in Japan, and 348 chargers at six
malls in China
Askul March 2018 EV100 member; commitment to transition ✓
Corporation transport fleets by 2030
Air New March 2018 • EV100 member; committed to fleet ✓ ✓
Zealand transition and charging infrastructure
rollout by 2030
• Already has transitioned 100% of its light
vehicle fleet and more than half of its
heavy airport service vehicles
EDF Group March 2018 As an EV100 member EDF Group is committed to ✓
fleet transition and charging infrastructure roll out
by 2030
Mercury March 2018 • EV100 member; committed to ✓
transitioning fleets and rolling out
charging infrastructure by 2030
• Already has one of the largest EV fleets in
New Zealand

Royal March 2018 • EV100 member; committed to ✓ ✓

HaskoningDHV transitioning fleets and rolling out
charging infrastructure by 2030
• Commitment to transition staff fleet in
the Netherlands to BEVs by 2021
Zoomcar February 2018 EV pilot in Mysore with Mahindra, plans to launch ✓
500 more EVs across 20 cities in the coming
months
RATP and Île- February 2018 Plans to transform public transport fleet of Paris by ✓
de-France having 4,700 clean buses by 2025
Mobilités
Auckland January 2018 Auckland Transport acquired 20 EVs and 26 ✓ ✓
Transport charging stations, plans to have only emission-free
vehicle by 2025

29
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Company Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Shenzhen Bus January 2018 Bus Fleet completely electric by end of 2017, over ✓
Company 16,000 vehicles
June 2016 Shenzhen Targets to Go 100% Electric Buses by ✓
2017
Deutsche Post September Member of EV100 ✓ ✓
DHL 2017
March 2017 To reduce all logistics-related emissions to zero by
the year 2050.One of the key actions under this
strategy is reduce local air pollution emissions by
operating 70% of our own first and last mile
services with clean pick-up and delivery solutions,
such as bicycles and electric vehicles by 2025
Lyft July 2017 By 2025, Lyft’s shared platform will provide at least ✓
1 billion rides per year using electric autonomous
vehicles.
Baidu September Member of EV100, committing to transition its ✓ ✓
2017 own fleets to EV as well as enabling staff to use
electrified transport
Heathrow September EV100 member, zero-carbon airport by 2050,
Airport 2017
HP INC. September EV100 member, charging stations for employees in ✓
2017 several countries
IKEA September EV100 member, EV charging stations at stores and ✓ ✓
2017 planned transition of delivery vehicles to all
electric fleet
LEASEPLAN September • EV100 member ✓
2017 • Leasing company recommending
customers to use electric vehicles and
transforming own vehicle fleet
• Commitment to electrify its employee
vehicle fleet by 2021; working with
customers to achieve zero net emissions
from corporate automotive sector by
2030

30
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Modes Charging
Announcement Infrastructure
Company Description
Date Car/Taxi Bus Trucks Others No
Mention/All
Metro AG September EV100 member, charging stations at stores and ✓ ✓
2017 company car fleet to be electrified
Pacific Gas and September EV100 member, 1,600 electric-based vehicles, ✓ ✓
Oil Company 2017 including a pioneering hybrid-electric bucket truck,
program to install 7,500 level 2 EV charging
stations at multi-family dwellings and workplaces
Unilever September Member of EV100, plans to prioritize EVs and ✓
2017 transition to all-EV fleet by 2030
Vattenfall September • Joined EV100 initiative ✓ ✓
2017 • In February 2017 Vattenfall pledged to
transition its entire vehicle fleet to EVs
February 2017 within the next five years (2022)
Zion National August 2017 First electric bus to the transit fleet at Zion ✓
Park, Utah National Park in southern Utah
Ola May 2017 Powering India’s first electric mass mobility ✓ ✓
ecosystem, together with Mahindra, Ola to use
200 EVs and 100 e-riskahws in Nagpur
Companies in October 2016 New Zealand's largest companies are committing ✓
New Zealand to at least 30 per cent of their corporate fleets
being electric vehicles by 2019
Heineken March 2016 To have by 2020 100% electric truck distribution ✓
for secondary distribution from the nine
distribution centres in the Netherlands, using
renewable energy

31
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Market Trend Reports

The earliest report about the impact of e-mobility in Regarding penetration rates, all market reports electric by 2040, ITDP says that by 2050 very few
this overview is from 2006 and over the years the agree that the sales rate of electric vehicles will non-electric vehicles will be sold. McKinsey even
number of publications has increased significantly. increase in the coming years, but different suggests that 100% of vehicles sold in 2025 will be
So far in 2017 there were 16 reports trying to predict assumptions are made about the extent of the electric due to economic trends, consumer demand,
the e-mobility growth. The findings are divided into growth rates, with absolute projections for electric and strong regulatory intervention.
sales penetration rates, price parity, battery costs vehicles on the roads in 2030 varying from 71 to 160
We also note that, few reports include details on
and charging infrastructure. These market reports million.
charging infrastructure, while the development of
assume that electric vehicles will be cost competitive
For instance, while Bloomberg’s Electric Vehicles charging points will be an essential factor for the
with internal combustion engine vehicles around
Outlook believes that 50% of vehicle sales will be growth of electric vehicles.
2030.

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
2019 IEA Global EV Outlook In 2030, in the New GHG emissions of the EV
2019 Policies Scenario, global fleet reach almost 230
electric car sales to reach million tonnes of carbon-
23 million and the stock dioxide equivalent in
to exceed 130 million 2030, offsetting about
vehicles. 220 Mt CO2-eq
emissions
2018 Bloomberg New Energy Sales of electric vehicles battery packs for Electric vehicles add
Outlook 2018 (EVs) expected to stationary storage around 3,461TWh of
increase from a record applications are set to new electricity demand
1.1 million worldwide in experience a 66 % globally by 2050, equal
2017, to 30 million by drop in cost from 2017 to 9% of total demand.
2030 to 2030 About half of the
necessary charging for
EVs will be dynamic,
taking advantage of
times when electricity
prices are low because of
high renewables output.
2018 IEA Global EV Outlook In the New Policies Current costs in In 2017, there
2018 Scenario, EV LDV stock average around 360 were 3.5 million
could reach 125 million USD/kWh for small charging outlets

32
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
by 2030. In the EV30@30 batteries, 155 around the
scenario EV stock could USD/kWh for large world, majority
even reach 220 million. batteries. are private slow-
chargers.
2018 Bloomberg Electric Vehicle There were 155 EV EVs will become Average price of Electric buses and cars
Outlook 2018 models in 2017 and it will competitive in 2024 on an batteries was 209 will displace 7.3 million
grow to 289 by 2022. unsubsidized basis and by USD/kWh, 79% less barrels per day of
Sales will increase to 11 2029 EVs will reach parity than seven years ago. transport fuel by 2040.
million in 2025, 30 due to lower battery Energy density
million in 2030. prices. Buses will go faster increased at around 5
By 2040, 60 million EVs electric than private to 7% per year. By
(55% of new car sales) vehicles. 2040, batteries will
will be sold each year, cost 70 USD/kWh.
total fleet will be 559
million (33% of global
vehicle fleet). 80% of
buses to be electric by
2040.
2018 Bloomberg Electric Buses in Global fleet of municipal Upfront cost parity of Assuming that
Cities: Driving buses totaled around 3 electric buses will be currently a 250kWh
Towards Cleaner million units in 2017, 13% reached in 2030 but TCO battery has initial
Air and Lower CO2 of all buses are electric. parity will arrive sooner. battery price of
$600/kWh.
2018 WWF and Accelerating the Under the 2040 phase Private charging Study on UK.
Vivid EV transition out scenario for UK, infrastructure to
Economics there could be 13 million account for 95%
EVs in UK, annual EV of charging. 34
sales to be at 60% in million chargers
2030. needed by 2040
2018 IEA Nordic EV Outlook Based on current market There could be
trends, EV stock will 210,000 to
reach 4 million vehicles in 400,000 public
Nordic countries charging stations
(Denmark, Finland, by 2030.
Iceland, Norway,
Sweden)

33
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
2018 European Fueling Europe’s By 2050, the share of EV By 2030, conventional cars Employment in
Climate Future sales will be 74% in will become more automobile sector to
Foundation Europe. expensive and price parity increase due to higher
There will be 17 million to be reached soon after. labor intensity of hybrid
EVs in 2030, 170 million vehicles, but decrease
EVs deployed in 2050. expected after 2030
2018 BP Energy Outlook By 2040, EVs will have
2018 25% of sales and 190
million EVs in 2035, 320
million in 2040

In alternative scenario
with ICE bans 100% of
sales are EVs by 2040.
2018 Fitch Ratings Batteries Update: By 2025, 10 million Increase of EVs will lead
Oil Demand Could battery EVs will be sold to a peak of oil demand
Peak by 2030 annually, EV sales to have by 2030.
a 33% annual growth
rate. Global EV stock to
be at 1 billion in 2040.
2017 Wood Future of By 2035, the EV stock will
Mackenzie renewables: a be at 350 million and
radical disruption? 21% of total fleet will be
EVs.
2017 National Grid Future Energy By 2050, 90% of all car EV vehicles to overtake Price of EV batteries In this year’s The growth in EVs will
Scenarios sales will be electric ICE around 2033-2037. has fallen by 65 per model we have have a significant impact
vehicles. In two degree cent since 2010 made the on electricity demand. If
scenario, all cars sold Super rapid EV charging assumption that not managed carefully
post-2040 will be electric and inductive EV charging 7 kW chargers the additional demand
already available to buy become the will create challenges
today standard across all sections of the
whereas in last energy system,
year’s FES we particularly at peak
assumed 3.5 kW. times.

A number of In two degree scenario,

companies are 50% of cars will be
34
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
developing flash autonomous shared
battery vehicles.
technology that
could allow an
electric vehicle
to run for a long
distance from a
five minute
charge.
2017 ING Breakthrough of By 2035, 100% of car High range BEV will be Battery cost to Ultrafast Electric vehicle will have
electric vehicle sales will be electric in cost competitive by 2024 decline: battery pack charging of large impact on value
threatens Europe prices should go batteries will chain and job market,
European car towards $100/kWh in enable a 300km Europe’s automobile
industry 2025, range could be charge in 20 industry in disadvantage
pushed towards minutes
500km
2017 Bloomberg Electric Vehicle By 2040, 54% of new car By 2029, EV’s will have Lithium-ion battery We expect 80% of all
Outlook 2017 sales and 33% of the reached price parity with demand from EVs will autonomous vehicles in
global car fleet will be comparable internal grow from 21GWh in shared applications to be
electric. combustion engine (ICE) 2016 to 1,300GWh in electric by 2040 due to
vehicles 2030. 270GWh of lower operating costs.
large format battery While we expect PHEV
cell production to be sales to play a role in EV
online globally by adoption from now to
2021 2025, after this we
expect BEVs to take over
and account for the vast
majority of EV sales.
Electricity consumption
from EVs will rise to
1,800TWh by 2040 from
6TWh in 2016. While this
represents just 5% of our
projected global power
consumption in 2040
2017 IEA ETP-2017, B2DS In B2DS, nearly all two-
and three-wheelers are

35
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
electric by the mid-
2040s, and more than
90% of all cars on the
road are electric by 2060
2017 IEA Global EV Outlook Electric car stock will 2015 powertrain In 2015, the battery Publicly available BEV batteries have a
range between 9 million investment costs for pack cost is USD EVSE outlets range of 200 km in 2015;
and 20 million by 2020 European vehicle 200/kWh for BEVs and need to grow by PHEV batteries have a
and between 40 million characteristics range from 255 USD/kWh for a factor that range of 40 km. The
and 70 million by 2025. USD 3 500 for ICEs to USD PHEVs. In 2030, the ranges between electric range increases
By 2060, the 2DS projects 7 800 for PHEVs and USD battery pack cost 8 in the RTS and to 350 km for BEVs and
that 1.2 billion electric 12 400 for BEVs. The 2030 decreases to USD 25 in the B2DS 46 km for PHEVs by
cars, representing more powertrain investment 100/kWh for BEVs and by 2025, 2030. In 2015, PHEVs
than 60% of the total costs for European vehicle USD 125/kWh for amounting to drive 30% of their annual
PLDV stock, will be in characteristics range from PHEVs between 4 mileage on the electric
circulation. In the same USD 4 700 for ICEs to USD million and 14 motor. This rate
scenario, the stock of 7 000 for PHEVs and USD million outlets increases to 80% by
electric two-wheelers is 9 600 for BEVs. By 2030, globally in 2030. 2030. The narrowing cost
projected to exceed 400 BEVs and PHEVs will Projections for gap between electric
million in 2030 (around become fully cost fast chargers cars and ICEs suggests
40% of the global total), competitive with ICEs in suggest that EVI that as electric car sales
and two-wheelers Europe, where fuel taxes markets will keep growing in the
become fully electrified are estimated to be high need to see the 2020s, governments will
by 2055 (IEA, 2017b). and vehicle attributes deployment of need to gradually revise
Under the B2DS, (namely power) more 0.1 million their approach to electric
transport electrification favourable to additional car support, phasing out
happens at an even electrification than in outlets by 2025 incentives in cases where
faster pace: electric cars other regions. High yearly in the RTS and BEVs and PHEVs actually
represent 85% of the mileage electric cars have 0.6 million in the rival ICE costs.
total PLDV stock by 2060, clearly lower first-owner B2DS. Extending
and two-wheelers are TCOs for almost all cases the period to
fully electrified by 2045. when compared with ICEs. 2030
This underlines the corresponds
interesting synergies with 0.2 million
between shared mobility outlets in the
services and vehicle RTS and 0.7
electrification million outlets in
the B2DS.

36
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
2017 UBS Evidence Electric Car The share of EVs in global EV powertrain $9k more The battery pack, We estimate Downside scenario: We
Lab Teardown – annual new car sales is expensive today, going which is the largest that $14bn forecast 5.7m EVs sold in
Disruption Ahead? 3% in 2021E and 14% in down to $4k by 2025E. cost item in the Bolt, is investments into 2025, or 5.5% of global
2025E (30% in Europe, True TCO parity (true likely to become 36% charging car sales. This scenario
5% in US, 13% in Japan) meaning the OEM makes cheaper by 2025E, infrastructure discounts a low-to-zero
i.e. 23% of global car a 5% EBIT margin) should from ~$12.5k today to will meet political support level,
sales be reached in Europe in ~$8.0k. requirements for sustained low gasoline
2023E, and in China in 19m EVs on prices and a slower-than-
2026E ex subsidies, 2-3 European roads expected consumer
years earlier than in 2025. response to EVs (TCO
previously expected concept is not well
understood as
consumers are focused
on vehicle selling prices
only).
2017 Morgan Morgan Stanley 16% penetration in 2030
Stanley and accelerates to 51% by
IHS 2040 and 69% by 2050. In
our bull case, based on
an even more aggressive
regulatory regime to
accelerate the reduction
of emissions, we get to
60% penetration by 2040
and 90% by 2045. Our
bear case BEV
penetration model
assumes that BEV
development proves too
expensive, or technically
not viable and
governments are forced
to delay regulatory
tightening. In this case,
new BEV models grow
global share to 9% by
2025, but fade after that

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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
2017 RethinkX Rethinking New ICE vehicle sales are For EVs we assume
Transportation finished by 2024, just that the vehicle will
three years after the have a 250-mile range
regulatory approval and by 2020 by increasing
commercial availability of the battery size of
A-EV technology. In 2024, current vehicles (if
the pre-existing vehicle required) and applying
stock can more than estimates of
meet the passengermile increasing battery
requirement for power density. The
transport under other major
individual ownership. ICE adjustment we make
vehicles eliminated from for EVs is to apply a
fleet by end of 2030s at battery cost of $200/
the latest kWh from 2017
2017 Goldman Rethinking . VW plans to launch more
Sachs Mobility (Equity than ten electric vehicle
Research) models by end-2018 and
over 30 new battery
electric vehicles (BEVs)
by 2025. VW’s targets
that 20%-25% of group
sales will be electric
vehicles in 2025, and in
China alone, c.1.5 mn
cars sold will be NEVs
(mostly electric) in the
same year
2017 McKinsey An integrated The Seamless Mobility The expected cost By 2030, electric vehicles
perspective on the system assumes that reduction per could represent 3
future of mobility electric vehicles will cumulative doubling percent of global
comprise nearly 100 of manufactured electricity demand –
percent of light vehicle volumes of EV lithium- assuming all 50
sales by 2025, driven by a ion batteries is around metropolitan areas
mix of economics, 16–20 percent. marked as potential
consumer demand, and Repurposed second- early adopters accelerate
strong regulatory life EV battery to the future states

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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
intervention. As a volumes will rise outlined in this
consequence, by 2030 dramatically. By the whitepaper, and that the
electrification levels in mid-2020s a large rest of the world’s
the vehicle parc in quantity of used EV vehicle parc electrifies
Seamless Mobility batteries will become more gradually
regions may have available for
reached as high as 60 stationary
percent. The cumulative applications. Costs of
market size for EVs for new batteries could
2015–30 would rise to possibly fall as low as
180 million vehicles, out $50/kWh– $60/kWh in
of 1,700 million total light the longer term (1000
vehicles sales. If local in 2010, 350 in 2015).
systems accelerate Early estimates place
rapidly, global 2015–30 the cost of
EV sales may reach repurposing them at
around 240 million around $49/kWh,
undercutting the price
of new batteries.
2017 UC Davis, 3R Report By 2020, 5 million EVs are By 2030, EVs will have an Electrification of the In 2016, the number of
ITDP sold annually worldwide average range of 250 drivetrain and cost of different (4-wheel)
(compared to 750,000 in miles (400 kilometers) and batteries together models available in
2016), with sales an incremental cost of may cost about countries around the
continuing to rise sharply about $10,000 per vehicle. $10,000 more than a world exceeded 100,
thereafter. By 2050 few Costs could decline more conventional vehicle, including everything
non-EVs are sold than this, but our reflecting declining from electric minicars to
anywhere. Some EVs may assumed increase in battery costs but plug-in hybrid sport-
well be plug-in hybrids, driving range requires rising energy storage utility vehicles. the 2017
but even these we larger battery packs, of batteries on the BMW i3 EV with a 94
assume are basically which we consider in our average EV. Our EV Amp-hour battery offers
phased out by 2050 as cost estimates. These cost projections are 114 miles of electric
longer range EVs and fast incremental costs roughly consistent range, up from 81 miles
charging become continue to decline to with reports such as in the 2016 model.
ubiquitous. near zero in 2050. EVs in (McKerracher et al., Notably, the 2017
2030 save enough on 2016), though Chevrolet Bolt EV offers
energy costs to pay back somewhat lower than 238 miles of range, a
reports that use substantial improvement

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Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
within five years, even less higher future battery over the 82-mile range of
for high-distance drivers. cost projections such the smaller 2016
as (Elgowainy et al., Chevrolet Spark EV.
2016

2017 GFEI Can we reach 100 To reach a global stock of In 2013 PEVs were very IEA ETP 2 degree
million electric 100 million PEVs by 2030, expensive for vehicles scenario, which targets
cars worldwide by sales growth will need to within this class. While the 140 million PEV light-
2030? A be very rapid and reach “modal” price range for duty vehicles by 2030.
modelling/scenario somewhere between 20 these cars was $15-19k,
analysis and 40 million per year followed closely by The 100 million target
by 2030, depending on vehicles priced at $19-23k, can be thought of in
the shape of the sales plug-in vehicles in this terms of numbers of PEV
growth curve. From their class were priced at $27k- models multiplied by the
current levels of about 35k. PEVs were actually average sales per model.
550,000 units per year very competitive with For example, 30 million
worldwide, sales would vehicles in the $31-34k sales could be achieved
need to grow by about price range, accounting with 100 models of PEV
28% per year, every year for more than 1/3 of sales; selling 300,000 units
from 2015 to 2030. Along but this is a tiny market each around the world in
the way they must reach segment with total sales that year, or 300 models
nearly 2 million in 2020, of about 50,000 cars out selling 100,000 units
nearly 10 million in 2025, of the 15 million sold in each; either way a
and about 30 million in 2013 daunting challenge.
2030 – with a combined

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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
effect (including some
retirements over that
time frame) that hits the
stock target of 100
million in that year.

2017 IRENA Electric Vehicles – A 160 million EVs by To achieve a tipping point For BEVs, a vehicle Assuming all these new
Technology Brief 2030. EV markets achieve in sales, EVs will likely with 40 kWh of electric vehicles were to
a “tipping point” need to achieve near battery capacity may consume 100%
between 2020 and 2025, parity on a first cost basis have a battery cost of renewable electricity,
when they start to with ICE vehicles. In the USD 14 000, leading to around 450 terawatt-
rapidly increase market 2015 calculation, with a vehicle incremental hours (TWh) per year of
share relative to ICE battery pack costs set at cost of at least USD 12 additional renewable
vehicles. Annual EV sales USD 350/kWh, EVs 000 compared to electricity would be
would need to reach 40 typically USD 10 000 more similar ICE vehicles, required by 2030. This is
million to 50 million by than conventional ICE depending on retail equivalent to 1.5% of
2030, out of an expected vehicles, and the hybrids mark-ups, incentives today’s total global
overall market of 120 USD 3 000 more. By 2025 and other factors. electricity generation
million to 130 million or even 2020, with battery New models to be
vehicles, in order for costs dropping to USD introduced in 2017
stocks to reach 160 50/kWh and the and 2018 will be able
million. incremental first cost of to drive up to 300
the EV down to USD 5 000 kilometres (km) per
EVs would become per vehicle. Fuel costs are recharge, but battery
dominant by 2040, somewhat higher by then packs up to 60
accounting for well over (USD 1.25 per litre for kilowatt-hour (kWh),
half of LDV sales around gasoline and USD even if battery costs
the world. 0.14/kWh for electricity). drop from their
In this case, anyone current levels of
driving more than 15 000 around USD 350/ kWh
km breaks even on to USD 150 kWh in the
ownership cost. In 2030, future, would cost
with the changes in USD 9 000, much
vehicle costs (particularly more than the drive
the lower battery costs), systems of today’s
the breakeven point is
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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
much more attractive for internal combustion
EVs: USD 1.25/litre engine vehicles.
matched with USD
0.16/kWh
2017 Exxon Mobil 2017 Outlook for Falling battery costs will
Energy: A View to enable small, shorter-
2040 range electric cars to
exceed more than 10
percent of new car sales
in the U.S. by 2040, as
high cost differentials
begin to narrow versus
conventional cars

Full hybrid vehicles reach

approximately 15 percent
of the fleet, though many
hybrid features, such as
start-stop engines,
penetrate into
conventional vehicles.
BEV share could be
around 5%
2017 Carbon Expect the In scenarios applying our This cost projection is 1.1 billion EVs in the
Tracker Unexpected: The lower-cost assumptions, credible given that most global vehicle fleet by
Disruptive Power in which EVs achieve cost studies believe EVs will be 2040, compared to 150
of Low-carbon parity with conventional cost competitive with ICEs million in the IEA NPS
Technology internal combustion when battery costs are
engine vehicles (ICEs) by between $150-300kWh
2020, EVs take a 19-21% and Tesla already claims
share of the road that batteries will cost as
transport market over little as US$100/kWh by
the subsequent ten 2020. By 2050, the EV
years. To put this in should cost around 20,000
perspective, BP’s 2017 to 30,000 $/vehicle
energy outlook sees EVs
only commanding a 6%
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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
(100 million vehicles)
share of the market five
years later than this in
2035. Along with the
emergence of hydrogen
fuel and more efficient
ICEs with an on-board
battery (‘oil hybrids’),
lower-cost EVs contribute
to ICEs losing market
share to 45%/46% by
2030. EVs occupy over
half the road transport
market in 2040 and ICEs
just a fifth. By 2050, BEVs
have saturated the
passenger vehicle fleet,
which accounts for 69%
of the road transport
market. ICEs now
account for just 12%/13%
of vehicles, almost
exclusively due to
demand in medium-duty
vehicles and commercial
trucks
2017 Roland Berger E-mobility Index Market watcher report
Q1/2017 on industry, technology
and EV market for China,
France, Germany, Italy,
Japan, Korea and USA.
2016 Cycling Electric Bikes 200 Million Electric
Industry Worldwide Report Bicycles Ridden Today–
News Poised to Grow to 2
Billion by 2050

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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
2016 IDB The incorporation Frost & Sullivan (2015) Price premiums that range The current cost of The estimated emissions
of electric cars in estimate the market size between 10% and 30% for lithium-ion batteries in terms of gCO2 per
Latin America of these six countries to HEVs, 50% to 80% for for BEVs is kWh are 165,3 for Brazil,
2023. According to their PHEVs and 80% to 150% approximately USD 231,1 for Colombia,
estimation, annual sales for BEVs. The difference 400 per kWh and cost 364,9 for Peru, 425 for
of PEVs in these six for the HEV ranges from projections point to Argentina, 459,6 for
countries could range 6,5% in Mexico to 26,4% USD 200 to 250 by Chile and 471,7 in
between 52,000 and in Peru (roughly USD 2030 and USD 150 to Mexico.
220.000 units in 2023, 2.300 and USD 12.000 160 by 2050. The
depending on regulatory respectively), with the battery cost for PHEVs
changes, consumer exception of Argentina, is likely to be USD 60
acceptance and where the difference is to 70 per kWh higher
technology remarkably high (172% or than for BEVs
development5. This USD 88.000)12. The
represents a market difference for the BEV
penetration between ranges from 55% in
0.3% and 2,5%. Mexico to 87% in Peru
(roughly USD 19.000 and
USD 35.000 respectively),
again with the exception
of Argentina, where the
difference is 320% (USD
163.000).
2016 Marco Miotti, Personal Vehicles The 2050 target is likely From lifecycle perspective, An all-electric fleet
Geoffrey J. Evaluated against to require a virtually our results show that would increase 2050
Supran, Ella J. Climate Change ICEV-free fleet consisting consumers are not electricity consumption
Kim and Mitigation Targets almost entirely of BEVs required to pay more for a in the U.S. by an
Jessika E. and PHEVs low-carbon-emitting estimated 1315 TWh per
Trancik vehicle. Across the diverse year, or about 28%
set of vehicle models and
powertrain technologies
examined, a clean vehicle
is usually a low-cost
vehicle
2016 The European ‘Low carbon cars in Between 2020 and 2030 A replacement battery
Consumer the 2020s: the costs associated with for a 2020 C Segment
Organization Consumer impacts buying and running a electric car is

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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
and EU policy conventional and predicted to cost
implications’ alternatively powered car upward of €5,000
(Element Energy, will converge. Electric cars
Europe) will fall in price rapidly
between 2020 and 2030
By 2020, the difference in
cost is expected to fall to
4% before narrowing
further to around 1.5% by
2025 and ending up at less
than a 0.5% gap by the
end of the 2020s. This gap
equates to a difference of
around €100 by 2030,
representing a remarkable
fall from just under €2,000
in 2015. To put this €100
cost difference into
context, it should be
recognised that the range
of electric vehicles should
also increase from 200km
to 320km.
2016 BP Back to the future: Global Electric Car Fleet In the IEA 450 scenario,
electric vehicles to grow to 26 million by the stock of EVs is
and oil demand 2025 and 71 million by presumed to reach
2035 accounting for a around 450 million by
little under a tenth of the 2035, some 380 million
total increase in the vehicles more than we
global car fleet. envisage in our Outlook,
with EVs accounting for
half of the total increase
in passenger vehicles
over the next 20 years. In
BP’s 2016 Energy
Outlook, we assumed a
roughly even split

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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
between BEVs and
PHEVs.

EVs not likely to act as a

major disrupter to oil
demand over the next 20
years

2016 OPEC World Oil Outlook By 2040, hybrids (both expected $150/kWh
HEV and PHEV) are by the early 2020s
anticipated to represent
28% of total passenger
car sales in OECD Europe,
~26% in OECD America,
31% in OECD Asia
Oceania, 19% in China,
~15% in developing
countries, ~18% in China,
8% in India, 16% in
Eurasia.

BEVs rate’s of total

passenger car sales: 21%
in OECD America, 19%
OECD Asia Oceania ~15%
in OECD Europe, ~4% in
developing countries,
~15% in China, ~6% in
India and ~5% in Eurasia.

266 million EVs in 2040

(125 million PHEVs, 141
million BEVs) will be part
of passenger car fleet;
15 million PHEVs and
BEVs
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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
2016 ICCT and ZEV Assessment of 2.3 million annual global EVs cost-competitive for $140/kWh battery
Alliance next-generation EV vehicle sales by 2020 (3% first vehicle owner pack level cost in 2023
technologies, and of global vehicle sales). 4 (including fuel saving for ($175/kWh for lower
Evolution of million annual global five years) in 2020-2025 volume companies)
incentives sales per year 2023 (5% timeframe, depending on
of global vehicle sales). electric vehicle range,
vehicle market, gas price
2016 WWF No Middle Road - Base projections for EVs to become a cost Tesla forecasting that If we assume that EVs
The growth of China – by 2040- 100% of competitive alternative to its batteries will cost consume, on average,
electric vehicles sales, Optimistic ICE vehicles in the mid- US$100/kWh by 2020 0.3 kWh of electricity per
and their impact projections for China- by 2020s. mile travelled and that
on oil 2035,100% of sales. each EV travels 10,000
Pessimistic projections miles a year, our EV sales
for China – by 2045, forecasts for China
100% sales suggest that by 2050, the
incremental power
demand will be 914 to
1,079 TWh a year
2015 Goldman A growing Low Grid connected vehicles The battery range for
Sachs Carbon Economy (electric vehicles and lower performance
plug-in hybrids) grow EVs to increase by
from c.$12 bn in sales in over 70%, while
2015 to $88 bn by 2020 battery costs are
and $244 bn by 2025 i.e. expected to fall by
22% of market share more than 60% over
amounting to almost 25 the next five years
million vehicles. Hybrids
will account for the lion’s
share of sales.
2015 ICCT and ZEV Global climate 30 million cumulative
Alliance change mitigation electric vehicles by 2025
potential from a (10-15% electric vehicle
transition to share in leading
electric vehicles markets).
2015 OPEC World Oil Outlook The share of hybrid
electric cars is projected

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Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
to grow from 1% to 14%
in the period 2013–2040.

BEVs are not expected to

gain significant market
share due to initial
purchase price and
convenience issues.
2015 Björn Nykvist Rapidly falling At US$150 per kWh, BEVs We show that
and costs of battery are commonly understood industry-wide cost
Måns Nilsson packs for electric as becoming cost estimates declined by
vehicles competitive with internal approximately 14%
combustion vehicle. annually between
2007 and 2014, from
International Energy above US$1,000 per
Agency (IEA) estimates kWh to around
that parity with internal US$410 per kWh, and
combustion cars in that the cost of
general is reached at battery packs used by
US$300 per kWh market-leading BEV
manufacturers are
even lower, at US$300
per kWh, and has
declined by 8%
annually. Learning
rate, the cost
reduction following a
cumulative doubling
of production, is found
to be between 6 and
9%, in line with earlier
studies on vehicle
battery technology.
We reveal that the
costs of Li-ion battery
packs continue to
decline and that the
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Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
costs among market
leaders are much
lower than previously
reported. There is a
convergence of
estimates of battery
cost for the whole
industry and costs for
market-leading car
manufacturers in
2017–2018 at around
US$230 per kWh
2014 Argonne Vehicle Battery Electric Vehicle
National Technologies penetration to reach
Laboratory Program 0.4% to 3.2% by 2050
Government (with or without
Performance and program)
Results Act (GPRA)
Report for Fiscal Hybrid electric vehicle
Year 2015 (ANL- penetration to reach 66%
US) to 77%.

Medium- and Heavy-Duty

Truck Market Penetration
estimates range from 8%
to 24% by 2050
2014 Accenture The Electric EVs are projected to In the Accenture, global
Vehicle Challenge become 10 to 15 percent study of over 7,000
of the global auto market people in 13 countries”
by 2020 from a current Plug-in electric vehicles:
base of ca. 0.2 percent. In Changing perceptions,
Europe, the market share hedging bets,” 60
of EVs including BEVs, percent of those
PHEVs, and E-REVs, is respondents who intend
expected to represent to purchase a car within
the lion’s share of the the next decade say that
market by 2040 in terms they will probably or
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Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
of drive technologies certainly consider EVs as
compared to internal an option. This includes
combustion engines both plug-in hybrid
(ICE), fuel cells, and other electric vehicles and full-
alternative fuels electric models.
2014 McKinsey Electric vehicles in 76% of vehicle sales Currently, estimates for In the near term The Costs for the The number of EV model
Europe: Gearing could be electric in 2030 difference in the TCO of (towards 2015), large-scale launches doubled in
up for a new with a strong regulatory EV compared to ICE battery costs (large deployment of 2013 compared to 2012,
phase? push. However, with vehicles vary widely, from format Li-ion battery charging and is projected to grow
inadequate regulatory ~EUR 5,000 to 20,000 per packs) are expected to infrastructure in by 50% in 2014.
support, the electric vehicle (for annual go down to ~USD 350- Europe are too
vehicles could constitute mileage of 20,000 km and 500/kWh. The main significant to be
48% share a holding period of four long-term drop, borne by public
years), depending on however, will come sector alone
powertrain type, model, from technology (one slow two-
and country, as well as evolution. The plug charging
fuel price and other commercial scale station costs
variables. introduction of the ~EUR 2,000 in
layered-layer cathode hardware alone,
with a Si-anode, for two charges per
example, could bring vehicle required)
prices down to less
than under USD 200
by 2020.
2013 IEA Global EV Outlook 2DS - three-fourths of all For Price parity with ICE, Price per usable
2013 vehicle sales by 2050 IEA suggests 300 $/kWh kilowatt hour of a
would need to be plug-in by 2020 lithium-ion battery
electric of some type ranges between USD
500-650 and thus
makes up a large
portion of a vehicle’s
cost, depending on
the size of the battery
pack.According to the
U.S. Department of
Energy (U.S. DOE),
battery costs based on

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Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
development efforts
have gone from USD
1,000 per kilowatt
hour (kWh) in 2008 to
USD 485/kWh of
usable energy at the
end of 2012. IEA
estimates a learning
rate of 9.5% which
describes the
reduction in cost of
batteries through
economies of scale.
2011 Google The Impact of EV, PHEV and HEV LDV’s Gasoline costs of Average battery costs
Clean Energy could constitute 58% of $3.50/gal., breakeven TCO could reduce to
Innovation LDV’s by 2030 is reached at battery costs ($/Vehicle) 8000 by
of ~$255/kWh for a 125- 2020, 5000 by 2030,
mile range BEV, while at 4308 by 2040 and
$5/gal., breakeven TCO is 4000 by 2050. The
reached at ~$355/kWh battery energy
Capacity Cost ($/kWh)
could reduce from 500
(2010) to 200 (2020),
100 (2030), 80 (2040),
70 (2050). The Energy
Density (Wh/kg)
increases from 100
(2010) to 300 (2020),
400 (2030) and 500
(2050)

2010 European Plug-in Hybrid and The deployment of pure Typical densities are In the Batt1 scenario,
Commission Battery Electric electric cars is expected currently around 140 technical progress is slow
Joint Vehicles- Market to remain very limited at Wh/kg and 730 W/kg. and limited to a better
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Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
Research penetration least until 2020. The While current price is durability while the
Centre scenarios of access to charging in a range 700-1000 usable SOC window
Institute for electric drive infrastructures at home, $/kWh, costs as low as remains unchanged. A
Prospective vehicles in working and urban 300$-400$ are seen continuous cost
Technological public places will be the achievable by 2020. reduction is assumed, up
Studies first barrier to a large- to ~300 €/kWh. In the
scale market Batt2 scenario, progress
development of electric is faster and more radical
cars. This holds true both (200 €/kWh by 2030)
in the near and longer
term. Faster market
penetration would be
achieved in the case of
PHEVs as soon as they
are commercialised
(~2020). A voluntarist
development of
standards and charging
infrastructure would
contribute to doubling
the market penetration
of both BEVs and PHEVs
by 2030 compared with
what would happen
under a much more
limited development. By
2020, 5.5 to 14% share.
By 2030, 15% to 62%
share
2010 Boston Batteries for Fully electric vehicles as To reach price parity in US Battery cells today can Infrastructure
Consulting Electric Cars convenient as ICE-based by 2020, three important reach nominal energy charging costs at
Group cars are unlikely to be conditions (in full or some density of 140 to 170 2020 to be $ 20
available for the mass combination with less watt-hours per kg, billion
market by 2020. degree) – 300$ per Barrel, compared with 13000
200% increase in gasoline Wh/kg. Even if energy
prices due to higher oil density were to
price or increased tax or double in the next 10

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Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
both and $7500 in years, battery packs
governmental incentives would still store only
available per car. about 200 Wh/kg of
weight. Assuming 250
kg, 20-25% of total
weight of small cars,
doubling of energy
density would give a
range of about 300km.
Considerable
challenges to reach
battery costs of $250
per kWh by 2020.
2010 J.D. Power Drive Green 2020: By 2020, 5.2 million units Compared with a A Li-ion battery, for More than 30 global
and More Hope than (7.3% of the total) will traditional compact example, is expected vehicle automakers are
Associates Reality? feature some type of vehicle powered by an to have a useful life of expected to be
battery-powered internal combustion up to 200,000 km manufacturing and
configuration. The United engine (ICE), a comparably (124,000 miles), and selling BEVs by 2020, but
States is forecasted to sized HEV is typically the cost to replace the only one—the Renault-
account for 53% of the priced 30%-40% higher, battery pack is Nissan Group—is
global HEV total, and a BEV is priced 50%- expected to range expected to have more
followed by Japan (20%) 100% higher (depending from US $10,000 to US than a double-digit share
and Europe (16%), while on the subsidies received) $15,000 of the global BEV market
the remaining 11% will by that time. Renault-
be spread among all Nissan is forecasted to
other countries. On a account for 34% of all
regional basis, Europe is BEV sales by 2020,
expected to account for followed by the PSA
56% of BEV sales by Group (6.1%) and the
2020, followed by China Volkswagen Group
(25%), the United States (6.0%)
(8%), and Japan (5%).
2010 HIS Global Battery Electric Business-as-Expected: By 2030, with all of this
Insight and Plug-in Hybrid PHEV Share 8.6% third party assistance
Vehicles: The BEV Share 9.9% (from governments,
Definitive utilities, employers, etc.) it
Cornutopia: is expected that the urban

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WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
Assessment of the PHEV Share 31.3% transport sector can be
Business Case BEV Share 29.2% largely converted to BEVs

Disruptive:
PHEV Share 21.6%
BEV Share 30.0%
2009 Boston The Comeback of BEV share to 3% to 10%, At the battery cost of 500$ to 700$/kWh by
Consulting Electric Car Range extender EV to be 700$ per kWh, the electric 2020
Group 3% to 6% and Hybrid car costs more than
electric vehicle share to advanced ICE vehicles and
be 20% to 26% by 2020 hybrids when oil prices
(share of new sales) are below $ 280 per
barrel. Only if the battery
costs drops low, to $500
per kWh, will the electric
vehicle become attractive
at an oil price between
$100 and $120 per barrel

2009 Transport and How to avoid an it usually takes 10 to 20 The cost and range factors Graph 15 shows that,
Environment electric shock years to achieve 5% of outlined are likely to in the decade 1991-
new sales. persist until 2030. As such, 2001, the cost of
Electric cars: from without a dramatic shift in lithium ion batteries
hype to reality Most scenarios even consumer expectations, decreased
think it unlikely that the electric vehicle is likely substantially, while
electric vehicles will to remain a niche vehicle capacity increased.
number more than 25% (Kromer and Haywood However, battery
of new sales by 2050. 2007: 90). prices are still unlikely
Faster market to fall sufficiently in
penetration would the medium term to
require a combination of enable pure EVs to
competitive technologies compete with
and strong policy conventionally-
incentives or regulations. powered vehicles.
2009 EUCAR The Electrification A cost less than 150 Even if a lot of progress
of the Vehicle and €/kWh has to be has occurred in terms of
54
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
the Urban achieved in 2020 (300 energy content related
Transport System €/kWh in 2015) for a to volume and weight of
widespread a modern battery, these
dissemination of EVs characteristics remain
about hundred times
Energy density has to lower than that of fuels
be improved at least for combustion engines.
to 200 Wh/kg in 2020 This fact is one of the
(150 Wh/kg in 2015). main challenges for
Current technologies electric mobility, as it
achieve below 100 influences both costs
Wh/kg and usability. For this
reason, the Battery
Electric Vehicle (BEV) will
mainly be used for urban
and near-urban
transportation.
2008 IEA ETP-2008 ACT Map - Beginning in 130 Mtoe of electricity
2020, electric vehicles (ACT Map) to 650 Mtoe
reach 20% of travel on (Blue EV success
electricity by 2050 scenario). Electric
(LDV’s) to Blue EV vehicles are assumed to
success scenario with penetrate at 5 to 10
90% of LDV sales by 2050 years lag in non-OECD
countries when
compared with OECD
countries.
2008 Deutsche Electric Cars: We project Over time, we believe the Following cost per
Bank Plugged In hybridized/electric switch to lithium lithium ion battery:
vehicles will represent technology will reduce the mild hybrid $500
20% of new vehicle sales cost of the battery to (1kWh), full hybrid
in the U.S. (slightly above approximately $500 per $1000 (2 kWh), PHEV
NHTSA’s 20% estimate) kWh and additional $6,000 (12kWh) and
and 50% of Western volume should reduce EV $11,000 (22 kWh).
European sales (in line other costs to
with Roland Berger and approximately $1000 per
JD Power estimates). By unit. This would reduce

55
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
2020, we estimate the payback to
penetration rates could approximately 3 years.
increase to 49% in the However, the lighter
U.S. and 65% in Europe. weight and smaller size of
lithium ion batteries could
allow automakers to
install a more powerful
battery, thereby
increasing fuel economy.
We believe a 2 kWh
battery could improve fuel
economy to 65mpg for
$700 of additional cost
which would further
improve the payback to
2.8 years. We believe the
current payback of PHEVs
and EVs of 7.4 years and
8.1 years remains too high
for these technologies to
dominate the U.S. market
at current gasoline prices,
without other incentives,
or new business models
2006 Arthur D. Market and In the view of European The hybrid share of the
Little Technology Study manufacturers up to car market will rise to 2.8
– Automotive 2030 the car market will million in 2011 and
Power Electronics be characterised by 83% increase to 6 million by
2015 domination of 2015
conventional gasoline
and diesel propulsion
technology. The
remaining 17% market
segment will be divided
between alternative
forms of propulsion. The
hybrid drive will take

56
WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Findings
Remarks/ Key
Year Author Title Sales/Fleet Penetration Battery Costs/ Battery Charging
Price Parity Assumptions
Dimension Capacity Infrastructure
over market leadership
with 15%. The residual
2% will be covered by
vehicles using fuel cell
technology.

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WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Automobile Manufacturer/OEM Targets

The automobile industry is quickly embracing Auto companies are actively working on introducing level of maturity. Volvo has already ramped up its
electric vehicle technology and the majority of global electric car models. Hyundai is planning for 26 research and plans for all new models to be at least
car manufacturers are developing long-term EV hybrid, fuel cells and battery electric vehicles models partially electric from 2019.
targets, though the scale of these targets differs by 2020, and GM aims for 10 different electric
widely. For example, the German automobile vehicle models in the same year, While Tesla is commonly seen as a major influencer
companies BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen expect in the electric mobility market, currently, the most
that electric vehicles will account for up to 25% of In the absence of a specific target, Rolls-Royce has dominant electric car company is Renault-Nissan,
sales by 2025, and Volvo and Peugeot are targeting a announced that they plan to skip hybrid-electric which sold nearly half a million electric vehicles in
higher share as they quickly move to scale up vehicles and move directly to producing electric 2016 and has set an ambitious target to sell 1.5
development of electric models vehicles once the technology has reached a certain million electric vehicles in 2020.

Company Date Targets and Projections

Ashok Leyland July 2017 Target of clocking 10-15 per cent of its total volumes from electric mobility solutions by 2020
BMW September Plans to have 25 electrified vehicles, of which 12 will be fully-electric by 2025
2017
June 2017 0.1 million electric car sales in 2017 and 15-25% of the BMW group’s sales by 2025
May 2017 EV sales account for three percent of BMW's overall sales
Chinese OEMs June 2017 4.52 million annual electric car sales by 2020
Daimler February • To invest 2.6 billion Euros ($3.2 billion) in research on electric trucks by 2019
2018 • effort to mass produce electric heavy-duty commercial vehicles from 2021
June 2017 • 0.1 million annual electric car sales by 2020,
• Plans for 10 new all-electric models and 15 to 25% of all their production being electric by 2025
Daimler-Bosch November The Daimler-Bosch joint venture increased their original target of building 1 million motors by 2020, to 2 million units.
joint venture 2012
Delphi August Electric vehicles (including hybrid) sales to reach 22 million by 2025
2016
Einride January Company developing self-driving trucks, named T-Pods, plans to deliver 200 vehicles in 2020
2018
Fiat Chrysler February Fiat won’t develop any diesel cars from 2022
Automobiles 2018
August After 2019 all Maseratis will be electrified
2017
Ferrari January To develop hybrid cars and eventually transition to fully electric cars (no timeline given)
2018
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WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Company Date Targets and Projections

Ford January To invest $11bn and have 24 hybrid and 16 fully electric vehicles by 2022
2018
June 2017 13 new EV models by 2020
January To spend $4.5 billion in electrified vehicles by 2020, 40% of its model to have electric version by 2020
2017
General Motors October 20 new EV models by 2023
2017
June 2017 30 thousand annual electric car sales by 2017
May 2017 GM has plans to introduce 10 different electric models by 2020
Honda March Honda to sell only electric vehicles in Europe by 2025
2019
October Two-thirds of the 2030 sales to be electrified vehicles (including hybrids, PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs)
2016
The electric vehicles (mostly gas-electric hybrids) currently account for 5% of Honda’s sales
Hyundai August Hyundai to introduce new electric cars for 2022
2017
April 2016 By 2020, 26 planned vehicles include at least 12 hybrids, six plug-in hybrids, two EVs and two fuel cell vehicles spread
across the Hyundai and Kia lineups
Jaguar Land Rover March Jaguar Land Rover and Waymo will work together to design and engineer autonomous vehicles, 20,000 I-Paces to be
2018 build in two years
November Half of all new Jaguar Land Rover vehicles will be available in an electric version by 2020
2016
Mercedes-Benz September Mercedes-Benz will electrify its entire car lineup by 2022
2017
March Mercedes-Benz Cars to bring more than 10 new electric cars to market by 2022 through 10 billion euros ($10.8 billion)
2017 of investment, having previously aimed to achieve the target by 2025.
Nissan March To sell 1 million electrified vehicles a year by 2022
2018
Peugeot and July 2017 Hybrid or electric versions of 80 per cent of its cars by 2023
Citroen cars
Renault-Nissan June 2018 Commits 1 billion euros to four factories in northern France
Alliance with March Aims for 2025 to use the next generation of batteries within its automobile range
Mitsubishi Motors 2018
January Sets up Billion-Dollar Venture Fund for Car Technology (incl. self-driving and electric cars)
2018
July 2017 Electric vehicles will be 20% of sales by 2020 where market conditions are right
June 2017 1.5 million cumulative sales of electric cars by 2020

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WORK-IN-PROGRESS

Company Date Targets and Projections

February Cumulative sales reach 424,797 electric vehicles worldwide
2017
Rolls-Royce July 2017 Rolls-Royce is skipping hybrids and going straight to electric cars
Schaffler November 46% by 2030 with 120 Million vehicles
2016
Tesla March Tesla shows electric semi truck at a first event, 140 orders so far
2018
August Tesla has now 380 Superchargers in the USA, 921 worldwide
2017
July 2017 First mass-market electric model of Tesla (Model 3) gets delivered
June 2017 0.5 million annual electric car sales by 2018, 1 million annual electric car sales by 2020
January Tesla has now 58 Superchargers in the USA
2014
Toyota March Toyota will stop selling diesel cars in Europe in 2018
2018
July 2017 Toyota set to sell long-range, fast-charging electric cars in 2022
September Toyota’s target is to reach 50% of its European sales with hybrid vehicles by 2020, with a hybrid version in every major
2016 market segment.
October Achieving sales of 1.5 million hybrids annually and 15 million hybrids cumulatively by 2020.
2015
Volkswagen April 2018 To invest 15 billion Euro by 2022 in EVs for Chinese market
March Volkswagen pours $25 billion into electric-car batteries
2018
September VW plans to roll out 80 electric and hybrid models by 2025
2017
June 2017 2-3 million annual electric car sales by 2025, Volkswagen, 25% sales in 2025
October The Volkswagen group target is for 30 new EV models by 2025
2016
Volvo January Electric medium-duty delivery trucks to sell in 2019
2018
July 2017 Every Volvo it launches from 2019 will have an electric motor, marking the end of cars that only have an internal
combustion engine (ICE) and placing electrification at the core of its future business.
October By 2020, 10% of Volvo’s global sales will be electrified cars
2015

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